Broncos (

20.75) at
Chiefs (

22.25)

Xandamere is one of the most respected and consistently dominant Showdown players in DFS, breaking down strategy thoughts and rules for every TNF, SNF, and MNF game

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 1 closes out with the Broncos visiting the Chiefs for a 43.5 total game in which Kansas City is favored by 2.5. The big news is Patrick Mahomes should be back for Kansas City after getting in full practices – though coming back from ACL and LCL tears is likely to limit his mobility, at least for the first part of the season, which could be rough against Denver’s elite defense. Both teams have strong defense, Denver QB Bo Nix is also coming back from an injury…this game feels like a very clear under spot.

KANSAS CITY

In the run game, the Chiefs brought in Kenneth Walker from Seattle, presumably to give him a big role – Kansas City has for years avoided bell cow running backs, but I have to think that they wouldn’t bring in Walker to treat him as just another rotational guy like they’ve been using for the last few years. Walker’s more of a pure runner than a pass catcher, though he did have a couple of four-catch games last year and the Chiefs have historically utilized their running backs through the air, so I do think there’s at least some possibility that Walker’s passing game role is bigger in Kansas City than it was in Seattle. The challenge is that he’s $10.6k on a slate when nobody else even breaches $10k – and while salary is kind of loose on this slate, that’s still a lot. Walker’s a low floor but high ceiling play – he could easily get boxed up and finish with something like 15 carries for 60 yards and one catch, but he also has 100+ yards and multiple scores within his range of outcomes. RB2 Emmett Johnson was a very good pass catcher in college – it’s unclear how the Chiefs will use him. He’s playable, obviously, because it’s at least possible he steps into an early third down back role, but I’m more interested in just seeing the usage in Week 1 to learn what we can expect later in the season.

In the passing game, WR1 Rashee Rice was literally rehabbing an injury while in jail this summer. And, the Broncos have historically bottled him up. It’s hard to have much faith in the Chiefs passing game here with Mahomes likely not as mobile as he was previously, in a nightmare matchup, and with their WR1 fresh out of jail. Rice extremely good, so there’s upside, but also a huge amount of risk in his profile. WR2 Xavier Worthy is likely to get erased by Denver’s top cornerback Pat Surtain, leaving him borderline unplayable for me (Worthy’s target has also fallen off a cliff, historically, when Rice is on the field). Rotational WRs Tyquan Thornton and Cyrus Allen are playable as tourney dart throws – Thornton’s ridiculous ADOT means he can get there on a single catch, while Allen generated a lot of camp hype and is currently not being projected well anywhere in the industry – he’s risky as a rookie in his first game, but, if nobody plays him and he ends up in a bigger role than expected, I think he’s more than just a pure punt option. Finally, Travis Kelce is old and his metrics have been declining for years, but this is somewhat quietly an extremely good matchup for him against a Broncos D that crushes perimeter wide receivers and filters targets to the middle of the field. At a career-low Showdown salary of just $7,000, Kelce feels a lot more playable here than he did for most of last year – plus we should be playing older guys earlier in the season when they’re fresh.