Packers (

21.75) at
Vikings (

23.75)

GAME OVERVIEW ::

• The Packers offensive personnel usage will likely look very different this season than it has in recent years, with a running back committee and more defined roles among the wide receivers.
• Star tight end Tucker Kraft is set to return from last season’s torn ACL for the season opener. Kraft was the TE1 through Week 8 of the 2025 season when he suffered the injury.
• Green Bay’s offensive line has major question marks entering the 2026 season and their defense will likely struggle out of the gates until star DE Micah Parsons returns to the field.
• The Vikings turn to former #1 overall pick Kyler Murray as their starting quarterback as they officially moved on from the JJ McCarthy era. Murray will likely be operating in the best offensive environment of his career.

HOW GREEN BAY WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Packers offense is in a materially different spot entering 2026 than anything we have seen in recent years. They have leaned heavily on RB Josh Jacobs since acquiring him, but will be without his services for the foreseeable future as he is on the Commissioner’s Exempt List while off-field situations are investigated. This leaves the Packers with an uncertain backfield situation featuring explosive, but oft-injured, third year back Marshawn Lloyd, pass blocking specialist Chris Brooks, and the recently acquired Kaleb Johnson – a decorated collegiate rusher at Iowa who flamed out quickly in Pittsburgh and has basically zero pass catching prowess. After building their offense around their bell cow the last couple of seasons, the Packers are now in a situation that offensive coordinator Alex Stenavich recently described as a three-man committee. The profiles of the players have very obvious roles if this holds true, with Brooks playing obvious passing downs, Johnson eating up a lot of the “empty” carries, and Lloyd probably playing around half the snaps but having the most designed for him.

Things in the passing game are the exact opposite of the aforementioned backfield situation. After years of a frustrating wide receiver “committee” that often saw five or even six receivers rotating throughout a game, Green Bay appears to have finally narrowed things down and has a very clear top three with specific roles. Christian Watson and Matthew Golden will be the two primary receivers, playing nearly every snap. Watson will operate as the “Z” and move around the formation as a chess piece and Golden will be filling the “X” role that Romeo Doubs vacated. Golden should provide an increase in explosiveness and a greater downfield threat than Doubs, but will need to improve his consistency and hands. Golden did have his best game of his rookie season in Green Bay’s playoff loss in Chicago and caught a bomb from Jordan Love in the preseason, so there is reason for optimism. Jayden Reed will be the clear third receiver and resume his slot role with fewer snaps and routes than Golden and Watson, but the role is likely to be more steady in terms of targets and production this season as Green Bay will likely play more 3-WR personnel. Part of that will be because of the backfield situation and part of it will be that Green Bay will likely try to ease TE Tucker Kraft back into things early in the season.

This matchup for the Packers offense is an interesting one as they face a highly aggressive and blitz heavy defensive scheme that was elite again in 2025 when the Vikings offense wasted what could have been a dominant season from their defense. Per statrankings.com, the Vikings led the NFL with a 54% blitz rate in 2025 – the next closest was the Chiefs at 40.8%. The Vikings gave up more rushing yards than usual last season as teams were able to grind them out due to their offensive struggles, but on a per-play basis they are still very good in that regard. This is the worst Packers offensive line in several years, so this is going to be quite the test in Week 1 as they are likely to struggle running the ball and also have to handle a dynamic and chaotic blitz scheme. What that leaves for Green Bay’s greatest chance of moving the ball is spreading things out and getting the ball out quickly to neutralize the pass rush. It also stands to reason that in this matchup we could see Brooks playing a high snap rate to aid in blocking and picking up the blitzes. Reed and Kraft stand to benefit the most from the nature of this matchup because of where they operate and the focus on getting the ball out quickly. The Packers will scheme the ball to Watson regularly as he is an integral part of what they are doing, while Golden will likely have one or two deep shots dialed up at the right times. We always need to look at Week 1 in terms of “range of outcomes” because we don’t know for sure how teams will play. However, all of the tea leaves in this game are pointing in a very specific direction as the Packers personnel and their defensive matchup are likely to push them into a pass-heavy approach and potentially playing at a more brisk pace than previous Matt LaFleur offenses.