Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- These two teams have faced or forced the two highest opponent PROE values in the league this year.
- The Titans have shifted to a “sum of all parts” pass offense, with nobody seizing control of a primary, or alpha, role.
- Jacksonville ranks eighth in PROE and first in scoring since their Week 8 bye, and gets an opponent that has forced the highest opponent PROE in the league.
- The Jaguars lead the league in scoring since their Week 8 bye, a mark that would also rank first in the league if extrapolated to the full season.
- RB Bhayshul Tuten is expected to return following two missed games.
- RB Tony Pollard has averaged 113 yards rushing per game in his last four while averaging 20.5 opportunities per game in that stretch.
- WR Van Jefferson is reportedly “done for the season” after sustaining a forearm injury in Week 17.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
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How tennessee Will Try To Win ::
The Titans have long been eliminated from postseason contention, but have consistently proven they will not be riding off quietly into the offseason night. They’ve played some solid opponents to tight games in recent weeks, losing 27-20 to the Chargers, 16-13 to the Texans, 30-24 to the Seahawks, 37-24 to the 49ers, and 34-26 to the Saints in the last eight games, a span that also includes wins over the Browns (31-29) and Chiefs (without Mahomes, 26-9). It was really only a 25-3 loss to the Jaguars, where they were completely run off the field in the second half of the season. I don’t know how much this comes into play, but the Titans appear to have their quarterback of the future in Cam Ward, potentially placing them in a far different situation than other bottom-dwelling teams in the league. For example, we saw the Giants embarrass the Raiders just last week, with the Giants already having their quarterback of the future and the Raiders clearly in need. Again, this is pure speculation, but that could be the difference between the underlying, implicit motivations behind the scenes over these final few weeks. Which is to say, the Titans are simultaneously playing better football in the second half of the season and continuing to legitimately try to win games. We should expect the same fervent tendencies as they complete their 2025 regular season against a divisional opponent.
Tony Pollard has gone over 70 yards on the ground five times this season, four of which have come in the last month of play. He is averaging 113.0 yards per game with a solid 7.7% explosive run rate in that timeframe, scoring three touchdowns. That said, he continues to cede primary work in the red zone to Tyjae Spears, having not seen a carry inside the five in the last four games. He has as good a chance to see 20 opportunities as just about any running back on the slate. The pure rushing matchup is a poor one against a Jacksonville defense yielding just 3.9 yards per carry (fourth) and 18.8 DK points per game to opposing backfields (second), but any back with an expectation of 18-22 opportunities can return GPP-relevant scores if touchdown variance works in their favor. Spears is playing a role similar to that of Kenneth Gainwell as the primary change-of-pace option, with increased usage in the red zone, although his per-snap opportunity rate is much lower than that of Pollard (or Gainwell, for that matter).
Ward has averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game since Week 9, which consists of their last eight games and their bye. They rank 19th in PROE in that span, typically marrying their offensive tendencies to the game environment in which they find themselves. In other words, we’re likely to see them begin in a run-balanced offensive stance before adjusting aggression levels based on the scoreboard and game flow. Considering the clear pass-funnel matchup, the fact that the Jaguars have averaged over 31 points per game in the second half of the season, a 12.5-point spread, and the fact that the Titans are allowing 27.3 points per game, it stands to reason that we might see increased aerial aggression as the game progresses here. The biggest problem for us in a fantasy setting is that the team has transitioned to a “sum of the parts” offense through the air, with no pass-catcher in a route at even a modest 70% frequency in the previous month of play. Chimere Dike (68.9%), Elic Ayomanor (65.2%), Chig Okonkwo (55.6%), Van Jefferson (47.4%), and Gunnar Helm (35.6%) are the top pass-catchers as far as route participation is concerned in that span, with James Proche (31.1%) also rotating through in a rotational role. The expected absence of Jefferson should rotate Proche into a more prominent role on the perimeter. Those recent tendencies simply leave little room for upside to develop or concentrate, making this pass offense of little interest to us outside of game stacks in MME formats.
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