Browns (

12.25) at
Ravens (

29.75)

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

The first Showdown of our final regular season slate brings us what looks like a wholly unexciting game as the Browns travel to the Ravens. This game has a 41-point total with Baltimore favored by…wait for it…20. Yes, you read that right, the Browns are implied to score just 10.5 points while the Ravens are implied for 30.5. I’m not sure I can remember the last time I’ve seen a spread this large. Given that it’s Week 18 you might think that Baltimore has little motivation here, but they need either to win this game or have the Steelers lose against the Bengals later on Saturday to win the AFC North. If neither of those things happens, they could drop all the down to the 5th or 6th seed. So, they’ll be motivated…but I’m not sure for how long they’ll be motivated if this game gets out of hand quickly. I’m going to write this from the perspective of the Ravens playing a completely normal game and then will touch on how we can consider alternate scenarios at the end. 

BALTIMORE

We’ll start with the Ravens and their backfield. Derrick Henry has been an absolute monster for them all season – he’s averaged over 100 rushing yards per game (just over 110, to be more specific) and he’s averaged a touchdown per game. Turns out that when you put one of the best running backs in the league on one of the best offenses in the league and also paired with a rushing quarterback, good things happen (hi over there to you too, Saquon Barkley). Henry’s the best skill position play in this game hands down (there are only two players averaging over 15 DK points per game in this Showdown – Lamar Jackson and Henry). The only question is about building a strong lineup around him given that he’s $11.8k (and Lamar is $12k). With Justice Hill out, Keaton Mitchell saw his biggest snap count of the season with 27% of the snaps last week (considering he’d only played 4 snaps total on the year that isn’t really saying much, but hey). When we saw Mitchell last year he was incredibly explosive. Last week he took 11 carries for 20 yards. He did have a nice 28 yard reception and let’s keep in mind those were his first touches in roughly a full year, so we can cut him some slack. As a massive home favorite, we have to expect a likelihood of garbage time in this one, and Mitchell’s 12 touches last week in Baltimore’s 31-2 thrashing of the Texans should give us confidence there’s some workload waiting for him. At $2,400, he looks like a really solid value option. Rasheen Ali only had 1 touch and can comfortably be left alone except in the deepest of MME builds. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, we know the deal: the Ravens will run out Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman at wide receiver, with a lot of 12 personnel sets involving Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely. Flowers has the strongest role here with a 27% target share and 31% share of the air yards. It’s a real WR1 role, the problem is the Ravens just don’t throw all that much unless they have to (witness Lamar’s 15 pass attempts last week, though 5 went to Flowers). It’s a tough spot to evaluate when he’s priced all the way at $9,600…he’s being priced like a WR1, and he is one in more competitive games, but in what projects to be a very low-volume game for Baltimore he’s going to need a touchdown or some really big plays in order to hit on modest volume. Obviously, he fits well in builds predicated on Cleveland keeping the game competitive for a while. Rashod Bateman has had a real breakout season but his volume is even shakier, averaging just 4 targets per game – he almost certainly needs to bring down a deep one to be relevant. Fortunately, Cleveland’s biggest defensive weakness is against deep passing, giving up a glimmer of hope.

Of the two tight ends, Andrews has been by far the more consistent option. After his slow start to the season, Andrews has reached double-digit DK points in his last five games and 9 of his last 11, largely on the strength of 10 receiving touchdowns in that span. Likely, on the other hand, has largely disappeared after his ridiculous Week 1 explosion, only reaching 10 or more DK points four times. Likely is still a viable play, of course, and as he’s priced below the kickers, he’s in the “if he gets a touchdown he has a good chance of being optimal” zone, but I have a significant lean toward Andrews. Nelson Agholor will make his return from a 2-game absence and play some WR3 snaps alongside Tylan Wallace and perhaps Devontez Walker (though Walker likely plays mainly in blowouts). They’re all thin plays with target projections of something like 0-2 but can be used in MME. 

CLEVELAND