Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The Bills are getting healthy at the right time; their starting offense is now fully healthy while three injured players on the defensive side of the ball all practiced in some capacity in each practice this week.
- Jets WR Davante Adams (hip), CB Sauce Gardner (hamstring), and OLs Morgan Moses (knee) and Alijah Vera-Tucker (ankle) missed both practices so far this week (as of Thursday). We’ll have to wait until Friday’s injury report to gauge their respective chances of suiting up this week but all four veterans are capable of playing without practicing.
- Buffalo is effectively locked into the #2 seed while the Jets are playing for nothing more than follow-on contracts.
- Since the firing of former head coach Robert Saleh, the Jets rank fourth in pass rate over expectation.
- Until last week’s 21-point outing against the Patriots, the Bills had scored 30 points or more in seven consecutive games since Week 6.
How new york Will Try To Win ::
The Jets have long been eliminated from postseason contention. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers and wide receiver Davante Adams are highly likely to be playing their second to last game together (as long as Adams suits up on Sunday – currently has yet to practice this week with a hip issue), with each player likely playing for their next contract at the tail ends of their respective illustrious careers. There are two interesting aspects of the bond between those two players: Rodgers currently sits at 499 career passing touchdowns and he has been targeting Adams relentlessly since Garrett Wilson’s sideline tirade about not being targeted. Finally, interim General Manager Phil Savage and interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich appear to be auditioning for interviews in the coming offseason. Former head coach Robert Saleh was fired on October 8 ahead of the team’s Week 6 game against the Bills. Since that time, the Jets rank fourth in pass rate over expectation and have had only one game below neutral. Rodgers averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game in that span.
Primary back Breece Hall has seen 19 or more opportunities in nine of 14 games this season but has seen more than 21 opportunities just once since the coaching changes. In other words, Hall appears highly likely to see 19 to 21 opportunities in this spot but remains highly unlikely to see a workload more robust than that range. His elite pass game involvement has kept his ceiling high (two games of 29.1 DK points or more this season but a modest floor has now been reflected in his salary). The matchup on the ground is solid on paper against a Bills defense allowing 2.27 yards before contact per attempt (sixth most), 4.6 yards per carry (ninth most), and 24.3 fantasy points per game (third most) to opposing backfields. Week 16 was the first time since before the team’s Week 12 bye in which Hall returned to a true workhorse role after fighting through a knee injury for the previous month of play.
Allen Lazard returned to the active roster ahead of Week 14, making it now three games with all of Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams, and Lazard on the field together. The target breakdown during that three-game stretch has gone as follows: Adams (35), Wilson (23), Conklin (11 in two games), and Lazard (10). Adams has seen 11 or more targets in six of his last seven games, with two games of 28.9 DK points or more in that stretch. You have to go back to Week 9 against the Texans to find a GPP-viable score from Wilson. One of the primary aspects of this matchup is going to be Buffalo’s ability to get off the field on third down as they now rank near the bottom of the league in most meaningful metrics on third down this season. Adams has 253 of his 719 receiving yards while in New York on third down, clearly operating as Rodgers’ top option when it matters most.
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