XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Sunday Night Football has the Bucs visiting the Cowboys for a game with a healthy 48.5 total and Tampa favored by 4. I will note that the Cowboys, who were somewhat left for dead after the Dak Prescott injury, have now scored 20, 27, 30, and 34 points in the last four weeks under backup quarterback Cooper Rush. Rush himself was not really responsible for much of this (he’s thrown for just over 200 yards a game), but he’s been at least capable and hasn’t made many mistakes, while the run game has been strong and the defense has actually been…well, not good, but less atrocious. They have 18 sacks and 10 turnovers in those four games even though they’ve given up a lot of points. Let’s dig in.
DALLAS
For the home team, Rico Dowdle is coming off of his 4th straight game of 20+ running back opportunities. Dowdle is running for an excellent 5 yards per carry on the season and has really taken the reins of this backfield, but despite all of the Cowboys scoring he’s only had 1 touchdown in those four games. Feels like bad luck more than anything else. The workload is great and Tampa’s run D isn’t what we’ve gotten used to seeing from them as they’re allowing 4.5 yards per carry to opposing backs, just 22nd in the league. They’re above average in overall run defense metrics because they aren’t allowing a ton of rushing volume as their offense has been so good that they have been playing from ahead a lot. Teams can run on them, but they’re game scripting opposing backs out, basically. Dowdle is in that boat as a guy who can catch passes but that isn’t really the big part of his game. He does face some game script risk if Dallas falls behind significantly. In builds predicated on the Cowboys winning or at least keeping the game close, he looks like an excellent play, but in builds based around the Bucs winning handily, I wouldn’t use him. Ezekiel Elliott is somehow hanging onto the RB2 job despite gaining barely over 3 yards per carry (including against the woeful Panthers last week). I don’t get it either. I doubt I’ll play him.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
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In the passing game, people forgot last week that CeeDee Lamb is still an elite receiver and he reminded them with a 9/116/1 line on 13 targets. Obviously Cooper Rush is a downgrade but Lamb is still a great pass catcher. The matchup here is great, with Rush being the only thing really holding him back. He’s not my top priority of the high-end spends as that would be Mike Evans (and Dowdle’s close too), but he’s a perfectly viable option, and given that there are only two players priced over $10k on this slate it isn’t particularly hard to fit him in. Brandin Cooks climbed up to 63% of the snaps last week while Jalen Tolbert dipped down to 49%, his lowest snap rate of the season…bad news for Tolbert, who I thought was likely to take Cooks’ job at some point just due to ability. Here’s the problem we face for Cooks, Tolbert, and the rest of the Dallas receiving corps: Rush doesn’t really throw deep and Lamb is a target vacuum, so for everyone else, you’re basically playing guess who gets a touchdown. It’s not impossible, but it’s tough to see who has a reasonable shot at success from just volume. At $6,600, I’d argue Cooks is one of the least likely as while he’s on the field a fair bit, that’s a steep price to beat just on short-yardage volume. Tolbert at $4k feels slightly better though (obviously) still risky and then you get to the rotational guys: Dallas played all of Jalen Brooks, KaVontae Turpin, and Jonathan Mingo last week. So, yes, six wide receivers saw meaningful snaps. Yikes. Books is out this week and I expect Dallas will come down to five instead of adding yet another wide receiver to the merry-go-round, which I think primarily benefits Tolbert. Of the rotational guys, Turpin’s my favorite because he at least has great per-touch upside as he’s used heavily around the red zone. So, overall, I’d rank the Dallas wideouts as Lamb, Tolbert, Cooks, Turpin, and Mingo.
At tight end, the Cowboys are running three guys: Jake Ferguson, Luke Schoonmaker, and Brevyn Spann-Ford. Spann-Ford is not an active member of the passing game with Ferguson back healthy but can be used as a punt as he’s still on the field some. Schoonmaker is similar, and while he filled in admirably for Ferguson, in the 10 games they’ve been on the field together, Schoonmaker only has a total of 7 targets. Ferguson, though, is the same play he was last time I wrote up a Cowboys showdown – he’s likely to be 2nd on the team in targets behind Lamb (he’ll compete for that role with Cooks, and while Cooks may come out ahead, it’s going to be close). So he’s basically Brandin Cooks…except younger, better, and $1,700 cheaper. I’m sold. He’s 2nd behind Lamb of the Dallas pass catchers for me.
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