2024 Draft Guide: QB Tier

By mike johnson >>

Tier 1 QBs – “The Studs”

This top group of QBs represents the modern age of football and essentially the “cheat code” at the QB position. Dual-threat QBs who can post big numbers rushing while having great offenses around them. Injury is just about the only thing that can slow any of these guys down.

• Patrick Mahomes, KC
  • Mahomes is a Hall of Fame QB in the middle of his prime and has the best offensive weaponry of his career, while the Chiefs’ defense is likely to take a step back and force him into more shootouts. He is my pick to finish this season as QB1.
• Josh Allen, BUF
  • QB1 each of the last two seasons. He has lost a couple of weapons, but the Bills’ defense is likely to take a step back, and Allen’s rushing ability makes it difficult for him to finish the year worse than QB3.
• Jalen Hurts, PHI
  • Hurts has finished as QB9, QB3, and QB2 over the last three seasons and maintains a strong supporting cast and rushing ability. Similar to Allen, it will be hard for him not to be near the top of the position.
• Lamar Jackson, BAL
  • Last year’s QB4 and NFL MVP, his weapons look a little different this year and the Ravens added Derrick Henry, which could reduce Lamar’s rushing production a bit. Still a stud, but he carries more risk than the top three options.
• Anthony Richardson, IND
  • Richardson has all the upside and tools to finish as QB1 – as evidenced by his monster performances in his two full, healthy games last year. It’s just a matter of whether he can stay healthy with his playing style.

Tier 2 QBs – “Knocking At The Door”

This tier features talented, young QBs with rushing ability and/or elite supporting casts. All of these players have the ability to post a top-5 season if everything breaks right for them, but they’ll likely need positive touchdown variance and some outlier performances to do so.

• Kyler Murray, ARI
  • Murray has a QB2 season in his past and the best offense of his career around him. Nearly two years removed from his ACL tear, he is the most primed of this group to join “The Studs.”
• C.J. Stroud, HOU
  • Arguably the best receiving corps in the NFL makes Stroud a consistent weekly threat for spike weeks. Only his limited rushing production keeps him out of the top group.
• Dak Prescott, DAL
  • Fresh off a QB3 performance (QB1 from Week 8 through 18), Dak is primed to post another very strong season. The contract situations for him and CeeDee Lamb force us to temper expectations a bit.
• Jordan Love, GB
  • QB5 in his first full season as a starter. Great supporting cast and a coach/organization that will continue to build around him.
• Joe Burrow, CIN
  • Similar to Stroud in terms of being an elite passer with limited rushing production that keeps him out of the top group. He is also returning from a wrist injury that could play a factor at some point.
• Caleb Williams, CHI
  • An elite prospect who has looked every bit the part of a stud during training camp and preseason. Williams is also surrounded by an elite receiving corps.
• Jayden Daniels, WAS
  • Elite rushing profile and a good deep ball combine to make Daniels the type of prospect that can be dynamite in fantasy. The team is projected to struggle and have a shaky defense, meaning he could be involved in a lot of shootouts.
• Trevor Lawrence, JAX
  • Barely squeezes into this group, but the organization has done a good job of retooling his weapons and Lawrence has underrated rushing ability. Unlikely to bust into the top-5 level, but a finish somewhere in the QB6 to QB10 range is very feasible.

Tier 3 QBs — “Pocket QBs with Great Supporting Casts”