Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• Likely defensive struggle between two top defenses
• Clear possible tributary scenarios exist, largely dependent on Marquise Brown (further dependent on Ravens coaching staff to adjust earlier rather than later to the opponent)
• High leverage in those tributaries

How Pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

For how much the scenery has changed in Pittsburgh (offensive and defensive personnel mostly), not much has changed over the previous three seasons in which Ben Roethlisberger has been healthy with respect to how the Steelers will try to win, and it all starts with that defense. Pittsburgh’s defense, although not quite returning to the “Steel Curtain” years, currently rank first in the NFL in yards allowed per drive, first in plays allowed per drive, first in time of possession allowed per drive, second in average starting field position, first in run defense DVOA, eighth in pass defense DVOA, and second in Drive Success Rate (DSR) allowed.

On offense, the Steelers have adapted their game plan to suit the strengths (or diminishing strengths) of their aging quarterback, playing at a slow pace (30^th-ranked pace of play at 29.48 seconds per play) and running a balanced offense (34.11% first down rush percentage, 45.21% rush percentage overall) with a low average Intended Air Yards (IAY/PA; fourth lowest at 6.6, ahead of only Drew Brees, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Daniel Jones). Pairing the effectiveness of the defense with the propensity of the offense to sustain drives (fourth-ranked time of possession per drive at 3:11) yields an above average 70.16 offensive plays run from scrimmage per game.

On the ground, we’re seeing the re-emergence of a typical “Steelers’ bell-cow running back,” with James Conner playing 84% of the Week 7 snaps and seeing 83.3% (25 of 30) of the total running back opportunities available. His box score against Tennessee doesn’t scream upside, but he had a rushing score called back, saw Benny Snell vulture two goal line carries (converted one to a touchdown), as well as dropped a sure-touchdown pass (with the nearest defender no closer than four yards away). The matchup is not a good one against a tough interior run defense of the Ravens, yielding a net-adjusted line yards value of 3.995, fourth lowest on the slate. All-world nose tackle Brandon Williams was activated from the NFL’s COVID protocol shortly after missing their Week 6 victory over the Eagles, and has been a large part of how this Ravens team has been so effective against the run (paired with Calais Campbell up front).

With the emergence of Chase Claypool, the Steelers have utilized a tight distribution of pass-catching assets, depending on health. Expect Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool to start opposite one another on the perimeter, each seeing 70-75% snap rates on a standard week, with JuJu Smith-Schuster manning primarily the slot (75-80% snap rate) and Eric Ebron and Vance McDonald seeing 75-80% and 50-55% snap rates, respectively. Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters will be tasked with primary coverage, with Jimmy Smith working in for nickel packages (the former two being every-down corners, while Smith’s snap rate depends largely on the opponent). From a pure personnel and scheme standpoint, this will be the Steelers’ toughest test to date, as all of Humphrey, Peters and Smith have numerous defensive accolades to their resume, including all-pro statuses for all three. With Tavon Young injured, Humphrey has primarily moved to the slot in nickel packages, with Smith and Peters manning the perimeter, which should lead to heavy JuJu/Humphrey battles near the line of scrimmage and Peters and Smith left to handle Claypool and Johnson rotating sides. For how strong the cornerbacks have been this season, the safeties have been far less effective, allowing a 101.4 QBR in their coverage. As such, expect the primary damage through the air from the Steelers to be done along the sideline against zone coverage and over the middle of the field in man coverage. The one area of the field that the Ravens have really struggled is in the red zone, as they have allowed a 30^th-ranked red zone touchdown rate of 76.92% on the season.

How Baltimore Will Try To Win ::

Slow pace, high rush rate (and the constant threat of both designed quarterback runs and quarterback scrambles) with downfield passing mixed in. That’s the name of the game for these Ravens. Baltimore leads the league in overall rush rate (50.14%) and ranks third in first down rush rate (40.35%). That could be an issue this week against a defense ranked first in rush DVOA against the run and second in yards allowed per carry. In the Week 6 victory over the Eagles (a similar matchup to the Steelers on the ground), Lamar Jackson attempted 27 passes compared to 37 total team rush attempts. Digging into those numbers further, Baltimore led 24-6 entering the fourth quarter and did not need to open up their game. Against the Steelers, it is likely we see the pass play rate spike as the Ravens adjust to what the opponent will give them.

Mark Ingram is currently questionable for this game, having suffered a mid-to-high ankle sprain in Week 6 (DNP Wednesday). Should he miss, it is likely we see a two-man rotation at running back, split fairly evenly between Gus Edwards and rookie JK Dobbins (44%/41% snap rate in Week 6 and 14/13 running back opportunities, respectively). Gus the Bus is utilized primarily as a downhill runner, with only three targets and zero catches season to date, while Dobbins adds versatility to the backfield, with a total of 25 rushes and 14 targets on the year. With heavy 12, 21, and 22-personnel alignments (48% combined), expect the Ravens to do what they can to remain unpredictable, primarily achieving this through constantly changing personnel alignments.

Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is the only borderline every-down player on offense, averaging over 85% of the offensive snaps over the previous two games. Expect Willie Snead IV to see 60-65% of snaps, with Miles Boykin and game-breaking rookie Devin Duvernay mixing in for 35-45% of snap each. At tight end, Mark Andrews is the primary pass-catcher and Nick Boyle the primary in-line tight end, with Andrews averaging 65% of snaps on the season. The Steelers mix zone and man coverage principles at an NFL-average rate, and we should expect coverage schemes to be highly influenced by down and distance to go in this game (heavy man on early downs, with zone on second and third downs). We can all but guarantee John Harbaugh and Greg Roman will pick up on this, so look for early down deep passes to Hollywood mixed in over the course of the game. Hollywood Brown ranks seventh in air yards plus yards after the catch per game at 130.2 and the Steelers have been victimized by deep passes this year (stat courtesy Matthew Freedman). Brown’s standard range of targets is six to eight, with room here to approach or surpass double digit looks should we see increased pass attempts from Lamar Jackson (likely in this game situation). Behind Brown, expect another six to eight targets for Mark Andrews, three to four targets for Snead, Boykin, and Duvernay, two to four targets for Dobbins, and two to four targets for the ancillary pass-catchers. 

Likeliest Game Flow ::

Because of the somewhat inexplicable red zone deficiencies of the Ravens, it is likelier that the Steelers break through first here and assert control of the game (unless a clear tributary develops, covered below). In this case, look for a spike in passing attempts from the Ravens, as the best way to move the ball against this tough Steelers defense is through the air. That volume should be concentrated first on Hollywood Brown, with Andrews, Duvernay, Boykin and Snead next up, in that order. This would allow the Steelers to continue their likeliest plan of attack, moving the ball on the ground and via short passing as the game moves on. 

Tributaries ::

DFS+ Interpretation ::