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0:00 :: Rams // Dolphins
8:20 :: Jets // Chiefs
20:45 :: Vikings // Packers
31:32 :: Colts // Lions
41:54 :: Raiders // Browns
53:33 :: Titans // Bengals
67:20 :: Patriots // Bills
76:17 :: Steelers // Ravens
89:12 :: Chargers // Broncos
102:23 :: 49ers // Seahawks
112:53 :: Saints // Bears

Week 7 Recap, 2020

With JM, Scott Barrett, and Graham Barfield


Kickoff Thursday, Oct 29th 8:20pm Eastern

Falcons (
25.25) at

Panthers (
26.75)

Over/Under 52.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Falcons Run D
7th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Panthers Run O
8th DVOA/20th Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D
28th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
Panthers Pass O
10th DVOA/17th Yards per pass
Panthers Run D
25th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O
30th DVOA/23rd Yards per carry
Panthers Pass D
24th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per pass
Falcons Pass O
12th DVOA/2nd Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::

Thursday night has the Falcons visiting the Panthers in a 49 point total game with Carolina currently favored by a field goal. The big news is if Christian McCaffrey will return. He practiced on Monday but has not yet been designated to return from injured reserve. The beat news I’ve seen seems to think it’s possible but not likely that he plays, so I’m going to write this up as if he’s out and will adjust if we get news before Thursday.

The Panthers are one of the easiest teams to figure . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 1st 1:00pm Eastern

Rams (
25) at

Dolphins (
21.5)

Over/Under 46.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Rams Run D
26th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
27th DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Rams Pass D
19th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
14th DVOA/26th Yards per pass
Dolphins Run D
29th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per carry
Rams Run O
1st DVOA/9th Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
8th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per pass
Rams Pass O
17th DVOA/9th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

We know how the Rams want to try to win games; unfortunately for the Dolphins, this game sets up really well for the Rams to lean on that approachIt's Tua time for the Dolphins; the matchup isn't great, but the Dolphins still have a solid teamWe should expect the Rams to gain control of this game as it moves along; but this game does have a shot at remaining competitiveDFS plays are not abundant here, but there are a couple pieces to think about

How Los Angeles Will Try To Win ::

The . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 1st 1:00pm Eastern

Jets (
14.75) at

Chiefs (
34.25)

Over/Under 49.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Jets Run D
10th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O
21st DVOA/16th Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
32nd DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Chiefs Pass O
1st DVOA/1st Yards per pass
Chiefs Run D
30th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
28th DVOA/25th Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D
7th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
29th DVOA/32nd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Not many avenues for tributary game flows to developChiefs likely to score, but damage is likeliest to come on short fields and with low volume; splash players gain tractionChiefs are likely to go over-owned considering the ever-present misconceptions surrounding how Andy Reid runs a blowoutJets are set up terribly to push the Chiefs to score more

How New York Will Try To Win ::

As I start to write this game up, I can’t get Anna of Arendale singing “’Cause for the first time in forever….” out of my head, ‘cause for . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 1st 1:00pm Eastern

Vikings (
21) at

Packers (
27)

Over/Under 48.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Vikings Run D
15th DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
13th DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Vikings Pass D
11th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
3rd DVOA/6th Yards per pass
Packers Run D
22nd DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Vikings Run O
3rd DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
16th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per pass
Vikings Pass O
18th DVOA/19th Yards per pass

Weather Update ::

It's rare that I think about weather this early in the week (more often than not, early-week weather concerns turn into nothing by Sunday — or, at the very least, turn into an overreaction), but since the total in this game has started to creep down (it opened at 55.0; it now sits at 51.0; and it could be lower by the time you read this), I wanted to add a quick note. Obviously, expectations will be adjusted throughout the weekend in the Angles Pod and Player Grid (including whatever format this week's presumed . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 1st 1:00pm Eastern

Colts (
26.25) at

Lions (
22.75)

Over/Under 49.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Colts Run D
4th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
16th DVOA/29th Yards per carry
Colts Pass D
4th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
16th DVOA/15th Yards per pass
Lions Run D
27th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Colts Run O
18th DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
23rd DVOA/25th Yards allowed per pass
Colts Pass O
20th DVOA/10th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

The Colts prefer to stay "balanced toward the run"; and as long as game flow cooperates, this is the way in which the matchup lines upThe Lions are a bit more aggressive than the Colts when they throw; but similar to the Colts, they want to keep the ball on the ground when they can and tighten up their gamesThe game environment in this spot does not lend itself to a shootout, or to mega game stacks......but there are still a few pieces to think about in tournaments of varying sizes

How Indianapolis . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 1st 1:00pm Eastern

Raiders (
23) at

Browns (
24)

Over/Under 47.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Raiders Run D
26th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O
7th DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D
19th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Browns Pass O
19th DVOA/30th Yards per pass
Browns Run D
18th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O
12th DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Browns Pass D
20th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per pass
Raiders Pass O
7th DVOA/20th Yards per pass

Weather Update ::

It's rare that I think about weather this early in the week (more often than not, early-week weather concerns turn into nothing by Sunday — or, at the very least, turn into an overreaction), but since the total in this game has started to creep down (it opened at 55.5; it now sits at 50.5; and it could be lower by the time you read this), I wanted to add a quick note. Obviously, expectations will be adjusted throughout the weekend in the Angles Pod and Player Grid (including whatever format this week's presumed . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 1st 1:00pm Eastern

Titans (
28) at

Bengals (
21)

Over/Under 49.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Titans Run D
19th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O
24th DVOA/22nd Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
25th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per pass
Bengals Pass O
24th DVOA/16th Yards per pass
Bengals Run D
21st DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
5th DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D
29th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
2nd DVOA/23rd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

This shapes up as one of the most attractive game environments on the slateTennessee sets up well to attack in whatever manner they chooseThe Bengals are likely to tilt toward the air in this oneThis game environment is not going to go overlooked by the masses, but there are some fun ways to build around this game

How Tennessee Will Try To Win ::

It’s not really any secret how the Titans want to win. On early downs with the score within seven points, this offense is running the ball at the ninth highest . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 1st 1:00pm Eastern

Patriots (
18.5) at

Bills (
22.5)

Over/Under 41.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Patriots Run D
31st DVOA/21st Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
23rd DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
30th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
6th DVOA/4th Yards per pass
Bills Run D
23rd DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
2nd DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
14th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
25th DVOA/27th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Wet, cold and windy (welcome back, Buffalo football!)Game sets up well for how New England will look to attackIf Buffalo does not adjust their offensive game plan for the opponent, we could see a throwback AFC East slugfestPoor chance at tributary game flows to develop

How New England Will Try To Win ::

After three consecutive ugly offensive performances (10 points, 12 points, six points scored over the previous three weeks), look for the Patriots to get back to basics against an opponent that they match up well with across the board. New England . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 1st 1:00pm Eastern

Steelers (
21) at

Ravens (
24.5)

Over/Under 45.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Steelers Run D
6th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
11th DVOA/1st Yards per carry
Steelers Pass D
2nd DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
22nd DVOA/31st Yards per pass
Ravens Run D
3rd DVOA/16th Yards allowed per carry
Steelers Run O
29th DVOA/21st Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
10th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per pass
Steelers Pass O
15th DVOA/18th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>
  • Likely defensive struggle between two top defenses
  • Clear possible tributary scenarios exist, largely dependent on Marquise Brown (further dependent on Ravens coaching staff to adjust earlier rather than later to the opponent)
  • High leverage in those tributaries

How Pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

For how much the scenery has changed in Pittsburgh (offensive and defensive personnel mostly), not much has changed over the previous three seasons in which Ben Roethlisberger has been healthy with respect to how the Steelers will try to win, and it all starts with that defense. Pittsburgh’s defense, although not quite returning to the “Steel Curtain” years, currently rank first in the NFL in yards allowed per drive, first in plays allowed per drive, first in time of possession allowed per drive, second in average starting field position, first in run defense DVOA, eighth in pass defense DVOA, and second in Drive Success Rate (DSR) allowed.

On offense, the Steelers have adapted their game plan to suit the strengths (or diminishing strengths) of their aging quarterback, playing at a slow pace (30th-ranked pace of play at 29.48 seconds per play) and running a balanced offense (34.11% first down rush percentage, 45.21% rush percentage overall) with a low average Intended Air Yards (IAY/PA; fourth lowest at 6.6, ahead of only Drew Brees, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Daniel Jones). Pairing the effectiveness of the defense with the propensity of the offense to sustain drives (fourth-ranked time of possession per drive at 3:11) yields an above average 70.16 offensive plays run from scrimmage per game.

On the ground, we’re seeing the re-emergence of a typical “Steelers’ bell-cow running back,” with James Conner playing 84% of the Week 7 snaps and seeing 83.3% (25 of 30) of the total running back opportunities available. His box score against Tennessee doesn’t scream upside, but he had a rushing score called back, saw Benny Snell vulture two goal line carries (converted one to a touchdown), as well as dropped a sure-touchdown pass (with the nearest defender no closer than four yards away). The matchup is not a good one against a tough interior run defense of the Ravens, yielding a net-adjusted line yards value of 3.995, fourth lowest on the slate. All-world nose tackle Brandon Williams was activated from the NFL’s COVID protocol shortly after missing their Week 6 victory over the Eagles, and has been a large part of how this Ravens team has been so effective against the run (paired with Calais Campbell up front).

With the emergence of Chase Claypool, the Steelers have utilized a tight distribution of pass-catching assets, depending on health. Expect Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool to start opposite one another on the perimeter, each seeing 70-75% snap rates on a standard week, with JuJu Smith-Schuster manning primarily the slot (75-80% snap rate) and Eric Ebron and Vance McDonald seeing 75-80% and 50-55% snap rates, respectively. Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters will be tasked with primary coverage, with Jimmy Smith working in for nickel packages (the former two being every-down corners, while Smith’s snap rate depends largely on the opponent). From a pure personnel and scheme standpoint, this will be the Steelers’ toughest test to date, as all of Humphrey, Peters and Smith have numerous defensive accolades to their resume, including all-pro statuses for all three. With Tavon Young injured, Humphrey has primarily moved to the slot in nickel packages, with Smith and Peters manning the perimeter, which should lead to heavy JuJu/Humphrey battles near the line of scrimmage and Peters and Smith left to handle Claypool and Johnson rotating sides. For how strong the cornerbacks have been this season, the safeties have been far less effective, allowing a 101.4 QBR in their coverage. As such, expect the primary damage through the air from the Steelers to be done along the sideline against zone coverage and over the middle of the field in man coverage. The one area of the field that the Ravens have really struggled is in the red zone, as they have allowed a 30th-ranked red zone touchdown rate of 76.92% on the season.

How Baltimore Will Try To Win ::

Slow pace, high rush rate (and the constant threat of both designed quarterback runs and quarterback scrambles) with downfield passing mixed in. That’s the name of the game for these Ravens. Baltimore leads the league in overall rush rate (50.14%) and ranks third in first down rush rate (40.35%). That could be an issue this week against a defense ranked first in rush DVOA against the run and second in yards allowed per carry. In the Week 6 victory over the Eagles (a similar matchup to the Steelers on the ground), Lamar Jackson attempted 27 passes compared to 37 total team rush attempts. Digging into those numbers further, Baltimore led 24-6 entering the fourth quarter and did not need to open up their game. Against the Steelers, it is likely we see the pass play rate spike as the Ravens adjust to what the opponent will give them.

Mark Ingram is currently questionable for this game, having suffered a mid-to-high ankle sprain in Week 6 (DNP Wednesday). Should he miss, it is likely we see a two-man rotation at running back, split fairly evenly between Gus Edwards and rookie JK Dobbins (44%/41% snap rate in Week 6 and 14/13 running back opportunities, respectively). Gus the Bus is utilized primarily as a downhill runner, with only three targets and zero catches season to date, while Dobbins adds versatility to the backfield, with a total of 25 rushes and 14 targets on the year. With heavy 12, 21, and 22-personnel alignments (48% combined), expect the Ravens to do what they can to remain unpredictable, primarily achieving this through constantly changing personnel alignments.

Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is the only borderline every-down player on offense, averaging over 85% of the offensive snaps over the previous two games. Expect Willie Snead IV to see 60-65% of snaps, with Miles Boykin and game-breaking rookie Devin Duvernay mixing in for 35-45% of snap each. At tight end, Mark Andrews is the primary pass-catcher and Nick Boyle the primary in-line tight end, with Andrews averaging 65% of snaps on the season. The Steelers mix zone and man coverage principles at an NFL-average rate, and we should expect coverage schemes to be highly influenced by down and distance to go in this game (heavy man on early downs, with zone on second and third downs). We can all but guarantee John Harbaugh and Greg Roman will pick up on this, so look for early down deep passes to Hollywood mixed in over the course of the game. Hollywood Brown ranks seventh in air yards plus yards after the catch per game at 130.2 and the Steelers have been victimized by deep passes this year (stat courtesy Matthew Freedman). Brown’s standard range of targets is six to eight, with room here to approach or surpass double digit looks should we see increased pass attempts from Lamar Jackson (likely in this game situation). Behind Brown, expect another six to eight targets for Mark Andrews, three to four targets for Snead, Boykin, and Duvernay, two to four targets for Dobbins, and two to four targets for the ancillary pass-catchers. 

Likeliest Game Flow ::

Because of the somewhat inexplicable red zone deficiencies of the Ravens, it is likelier that the Steelers break through first here and assert control of the game (unless a clear tributary develops, covered below). In this case, look for a spike in passing attempts from the Ravens, as the best way to move the ball against this tough Steelers defense is through the air. That volume should be concentrated first on Hollywood Brown, with Andrews, Duvernay, Boykin and Snead next up, in that order. This would allow the Steelers to continue their likeliest plan of attack, moving the ball on the ground and via short passing as the game moves on. 

Tributaries ::

DFS+ Interpretation ::

  • BAL scoring totals: 38, 33, 20, 31, 27, 30
  • PIT opp scoring totals: 16, 21, 21, 29, 7, 24
  • Lamar’s pass & rush att 2020: (25, 7) // (24, 16) // (28, 9) // (21, 7) // (37, 2) // (27, 9)
  • PIT has faced the sixth fewest pass att/g
  • In Lamar’s only career game vs PIT (Week 5, 2019), he finished 19/28 for 161 yds, TD, 3 INT; 14 att 70 yds; sacked 5 times
  • BAL ranks 12th in PBWR while PIT ranks 1st in PRWR
  • After just 3/15 games under 26 DK pts in 2019, Lamar already has 3 of those in 6 games in 2020 (17.6, 15.2, 14.6)
  • Five of six QBs threw for 2 TDs vs PIT (they averaged 263 yds, 2 TD, 1.2 INT)
  • PIT ranks 20th in pass success rate allowed to WRs
  • BAL ranks just 28th in pass success rate to WRs
  • Marquise Brown has seen consistent target totals of 6, 6, 6, 8, 10, 6
  • Brown has the 4th highest aDOT in the NFL (16.4) and 45.8% of BAL’s air yds
  • Eight WRs have finished with 45 or more rec yds: Slayton (102) // Shep (47) // Sutton (66) // Jeudy (62) // Hamler (48) // Cobb (95) // Fuller (54) // Fulgham (152) // AJ Brown (153)
  • Brown finished with 3 rec (5) 22 yds, TD vs PIT in 2019
  • PIT ranks 1st in pass success rate allowed to TEs
  • BAL ranks 16th in pass success rate to TEs
  • Mark Andrews has the highest aDOT among TEs (11.9)
  • Andrews targets: 6, 3, 8, 3, 9, 4
  • Andrews has been very TD dependent, scoring 22.8, 20.7, 17.6 in games he’s scored (5 TDs) and just 3.9, 5.2, 4.1 in the others
  • Fant is the only TE to score vs PIT so far
  • Andrews has totaled 10 rec (15) for 107 yds in 3 career games vs PIT
  • PIT ranks 4th in pass success rate allowed to RBs
  • BAL ranks 29th in RB pass success rate
  • BAL still rarely targets RBs (just 22 total on season), but Dobbins has the two best performances through the air in 2020: 4 rec 38 yds // 3 rec 21 yds
  • BAL’s RB distribution being distributed across 3 guys has led to only two double-digit scores so far from the group: 14.2 from Dobbins (thanks to 2 TDs) and 13.7 from Ingram
  • Rush att for each: Ingram (50), Edwards (48), Dobbins (25)
  • Ingram may miss, opening up for touches for the others (both saw season-high att last game when Ingram left early)
  • Dobbins is averaging 6.2 yds/att compared to 4.5 each for Edwards & Ingram
  • BAL ranks 9th in Run Block Win Rate while PIT ranks 1st in Run Stop Win Rate
  • BAL ranks 11th in PRWR, has the 2nd most sacks/g, and just added MIN sack leader Yannick Ngakoue
  • Ben is averaging the quickest time to throw in the NFL (a crazy low 2.29 seconds), which means he’s throwing faster than ESPN’s threshold for measuring pass block win rate (2.5 seconds)
  • Ben also has the 5th lowest aDOT among full-time starters
  • Ben is still averaging 241 yds, 2.2 TD, 0.7 INT
  • BAL ranks 5th & 8th in RB & WR pass success rate allowed
  • PIT ranks bottom 10 in RB, TE, & WR pass success rate
  • WRs with 50+ yds vs BAL: Landry (61) // Cooks (95) // Cobb (59) // Hill (77, TD) // Hardman (81, TD) // Watkins (62) // McLaurin (118) // Higgins (62) // Fulgham (75, TD) // Hightower (50)
  • Only 4 WRs have reached 20 DK pts vs BAL since the Peters trade
  • Diontae Johnson has a commanding lead in targets (38) in the 3 games he was able to play all the way through
  • Johnson ranks 3rd in targets/route run behind Davante/Keenan
  • Johnson rec:yds:TD in the 3 full games: 6:57:0 // 8:91:1 // 9:80:2
  • Johnson hurt his ankle at the very end of the game, so it’s possible he misses another game
  • When Johnson last missed snaps (Weeks 5-6), Claypool took advantage for a team-high 11 targets & 116 total yds, 4 TDs vs PHI and 4 targets & 81 total yds, TD vs CLE
  • BAL ranks 3rd in explosive pass rate allowed to WRs
  • PIT ranks 23rd in explosive pass rate to WRs
  • Juju has target totals of 6, 8, 5, 5, 4, 14 on the 5th lowest aDOT of qualifying WRs (5.9), and has scored 24.9, 11.8, 16.3, 6.8, 2.6, 17.5 DK pts
  • BAL has gotten attacked through the air via RBs of KC, WAS, CIN: CEH (5 rec 70 yds) // Gibson (4 rec 82 yds) // McKissic (7 rec 40 yds) // Mixon (6 rec 35 yds)
  • Conner has just two games over 20 rec yds this year (40, 29)
  • BAL ranks 6th in RB DK pts allowed
  • Conner has 25 of PIT’s 62 RZ touches, with next closest being Snell at 8 & Ebron at 7, and had scored a TD in 4 straight games before last week
  • BAL has allowed just 1 TD to RBs this season

Kickoff Sunday, Nov 1st 4:05pm Eastern

Chargers (
23.75) at

Broncos (
20.75)

Over/Under 44.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Chargers Run D
25th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
26th DVOA/15th Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D
5th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
32nd DVOA/21st Yards per pass
Broncos Run D
17th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O
24th DVOA/10th Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
12th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Chargers Pass O
15th DVOA/3rd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

The pace and defensive nature of the Chargers should allow a standard-for-them range of 70-72 offensive plays run from scrimmageClear mismatch between Chargers defense and Broncos offenseSimilar game setup for the Chargers as their Week 7 victory against JacksonvilleInjuries to Broncos could open up value on their side of the ball

How Los Angeles Will Try To Win ::

We know by now how Anthony Lynn would like to grind out each victory, which is likelier to be successful in this game compared to a standard opponent. It all starts with his . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 1st 4:25pm Eastern

49ers (
26.75) at

Hawks (
27.75)

Over/Under 54.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
49ers Run D
8th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per carry
Seahawks Run O
9th DVOA/11th Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
17th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Seahawks Pass O
4th DVOA/5th Yards per pass
Seahawks Run D
9th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
9th DVOA/17th Yards per carry
Seahawks Pass D
26th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
21st DVOA/13th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

The Seahawks play games close, and they typically find a way to score pointsThe 49ers should be able to put up points in this matchup as wellFrom a game environment standpoint, there are plenty of reasons to expect points in this spot......but it's not the easiest spot to target in DFS (and there's a good chance it remains relatively popular nonetheless)

How San Francisco Will Try To Win ::

Seattle has been better against the run than they’ve been against the pass, ranking ninth in DVOA (11th in adjusted line yards . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 1st 4:25pm Eastern

Saints (
23.25) at

Bears (
17.75)

Over/Under 41.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Saints Run D
1st DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
31st DVOA/32nd Yards per carry
Saints Pass D
6th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
27th DVOA/25th Yards per pass
Bears Run D
5th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O
6th DVOA/8th Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
3rd DVOA/10th Yards allowed per pass
Saints Pass O
8th DVOA/14th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Injuries on both sides; HEAVY wind (25-40 mph) and rain in the forecastThe matchup and weather shouldn’t have an effect on how New Orleans attacks this game but is likely to affect how Chicago attacks this gameChicago in rough shape should Allen Robinson miss with a concussion

How New Orleans Will Try To Win ::

A lot of how New Orleans will try to win will depend on personnel available. As of this writing, we should assume Emmanuel Sanders will miss his second consecutive contest on the COVID list. Michael Thomas returned to . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 1st 8:20pm Eastern

Cowboys (
16.25) at

Eagles (
26.25)

Over/Under 42.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Cowboys Run D
28th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
15th DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Cowboys Pass D
18th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
30th DVOA/28th Yards per pass
Eagles Run D
13th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per carry
Cowboys Run O
22nd DVOA/13th Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
21st DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
Cowboys Pass O
28th DVOA/7th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::

The Cowboys visit the Eagles on Sunday night in a 43 point total game with Philly favored by nine. That’s right, nine, which means the Cowboys have an implied team total of just 17 points despite having one of the most talented group of offensive skill players in the NFL….that just shows how much Dak Prescott meant to this team. I’m writing this article on Thursday night when there’s still a decent amount of uncertainty on the injury situations; if I get any of the assumptions wrong, I’ll come back and . . .

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Kickoff Monday, Nov 2nd 8:15pm Eastern

Bucs (
30) at

Giants (
17)

Over/Under 47.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Buccaneers Run D
2nd DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
17th DVOA/18th Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D
1st DVOA/16th Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
26th DVOA/29th Yards per pass
Giants Run D
16th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O
14th DVOA/26th Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
27th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per pass
Buccaneers Pass O
9th DVOA/11th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::

Week 8 wraps up with the Bucs visiting the Giants in a 45 total game with the visitors favored by 12 points. Similar to Sunday night’s game, the Bucs have an implied total of 28.5 while the Giants are at just 16.5. Of course, as I’m writing this, I’m watching the end of the Sunday night game, which is a reminder that anything can happen in a single game of football….which is why we play Showdown.

The Bucs’ run game should be of interest as massive favorites, but their backfield . . .

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