XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 7 begins with the Steelers at Cincinnati to take on the Bengals in a 43.5 total game with Pittsburgh favored by 5.5. The Bengals have ditched Jake Browning and brought in Joe Flacco, who wasn’t exactly elite last week but did keep them competitive against a very good Packers team. The Steelers definitely deserve to be the favorites here, but the Bengals didn’t exactly look awful last week, and it wouldn’t be a huge shocker to see them put up a fight in this one. 

Cincinnati

On the Cincinnati side, poor Chase Brown has been the victim of awful game scripts ever since Joe Burrow got hurt. In the last four weeks, he’s seen 10, 10, 8, and 9 carries as the Bengals have been playing from behind every game. He has seen 18 targets in those four games, keeping his floor intact, and his role is still excellent as he’s seen 72% of the team’s running back opportunities, but in order to find a ceiling, he’s almost certainly going to need to score a touchdown, which is something that’s eluded him since Week 1. The Steelers defense started the year poorly, allowing over 30 points in back-to-back games (including against the Jets), but has since played much better against the Patriots, Vikings, and Browns. Not exactly a murderer’s row of offenses, but neither are the Bengals. About the biggest positive for Brown is that his price has been sinking, and at $8k, he’s cheap enough that his role keeps him in consideration. RB2 Samaje Perine at $4,400 is too expensive for me. I’d want to see him down in the $2-$3k range for him to be attractive. He’ll be in my player pool, but I’m not going out of my way to play him even though I normally like being overweight on RB2s in Showdown.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, Joe Flacco brings inefficiency, but he also brings volume, having attempted 45 passes last week (as well as twice in four games with the Browns earlier this year). Flacco’s going to chuck it, and he doesn’t really throw deep much anymore, which can let his receivers rack up PPR points via easy completions. Ja’Marr Chase saw 12 targets last week, leading the team, and caught 10 of them. He’s $12,000, and that’s a tough price to pay with a backup QB, but given Chase’s ability to score from anywhere and the massive volume we can project for him, he still seems firmly in play to me. WR2 Tee Higgins saw 8 targets, and at $10k, he’s a tougher sell to me. Higgins is also a very good receiver, but he doesn’t have Chase’s ability to take a slant to the house from anywhere on the field, and he projects for a smaller target share. I do, however, expect him to come in at the lowest ownership of any of the plays priced in the $10k range, giving him some contrarian appeal in tournaments. WR3 Andrei Iosivas is not a good NFL player, having caught just 8 of 17 targets this year despite an 10.5 yard aDOT (normally we expect to see guys with deep aDOTs have such low catch rates). He’s a value option but not an appealing one.

What we did see last week was some rotation at tight end as Mike Gesicki got hurt early and Drew Sample (who is mostly a blocker) played his fewest snaps of the year, leading to increased work for Noah Fant and then Tanner Hudson, who is also a capable pass catcher, played meaningful snaps for the first time this season. The tight ends as a whole saw a whopping 11 targets with 2 for Sample, 4 for Fant, and 5 for Hudson. Hudson is also in the concussion protocol and is almost certain to miss, while Gesicki is already ruled out, which should leave the Bengals with Sample, Fant, and then probably Cam Grandy as the TE3. This could lead Fant to play a lot of snaps as the main pass catching tight end, and we know he’s a capable receiver (he’s also caught 16 of 18 passes on the season), and at just $3,600, he would be underpriced if he plays as the primary tight end. We also know that Flacco loves his tight ends. In the four games he started for the Browns, Harold Fannin saw 24 targets and David Njoku saw 25 – that’s 49 tight end targets out of 160 Browns pass attempts, or a 30.6% tight end target rate – one of the highest in the league. Sample and Grandy would be playable as dart throws, but Fant’s the guy who I’d really be drawn to. 

PITTSBURGH

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

This week’s European game has the Rams and the Jaguars playing in London in a 44.5 total game with LA favored by 3. It’s a bit of a drag that the Rams aren’t on the main slate for this one, but alas. It should still be a fun Showdown.

JACKSONVILLE

On the Jags side of things, Travis Etienne has had a pretty solid lock on the RB1 role (not bad for a guy who was expected to lose his job to Tank Bigsby during the offseason!). Etienne is averaging right around 60% of the snaps with at least 16 touches in every game. At just $7,800, that’s a great workload, and the Jags run blocking has been excellent this year (they’re the #1 team in run blocking win rate by ESPN’s rankings). Etienne also has 70% of the running back rush attempts in the red zone on the season. The role is robust. The matchup is kind of gross against a Rams defense that has only allowed one running back to reach 100 rushing yards all season (and it was Derrick Henry on 24 carries), but with running backs, we generally care more about opportunity than matchup (or talent), and the opportunity is there. Worth noting is that Etienne is the only player priced between $5,400 and $9,200, which is an absolutely massive gap. That’s likely to result in his ownership being quite high, as he just fits for so many rosters that have salary in that price range, but personally, I don’t really worry about ownership at running back. RB2 is Bhayshul Tuten, who is averaging 5 or so touches per game with little passing game work and thus looks overpriced at $4,800. LaQuint Allen fills out the position as a very thin punt who has 9 touches on the year.

In the passing game, the Jags aerial attack is finally starting to come together, and it starts with Brian Thomas Jr., who started off the season on a terrible cold streak but has 80 and 90 receiving yards in their last two games. This is a really tough matchup, but Thomas is capable of hitting in any spot. The pricing dynamic on this one is interesting with Puka Nacua ruled out – it’s going to shove a ton of ownership over to the Rams other two studs, and it could result in Thomas being overlooked compared to Davante Adams and Kyren Williams. Adams and Kyren are objectively better plays than Thomas, but BTJ’s ceiling is still right up there with theirs. Behind Thomas are Travis Hunter and Dyami Brown in full time roles and then Parker Washington and Tim Patrick in rotational roles. Hunter has had a slow start to his NFL career offensively, having yet to reach even 10 DK points in a game, but his price has dipped all the way to $5,400 (from an $8,200 Showdown price in Week 1), and that’s enough to make me start to take notice. Hunter is talented, and while many rookies start off slow in the NFL, I expect he’ll come around at some point, and it’s the kind of spot where it’s often better to be early than to wait till the guy shows it. Hunter isn’t a comfortable play, but he’s solid from a “what do you win when you win?” perspective, as he’s priced around other value plays who are likely to be much more popular and thus I expect his ownership is going to come at a significant discount. Brown falls into basically the same boat – he’s cheaper than Hunter, he’s less talented than Hunter, and he’s likely to pull relatively modest ownership because of the Rams value guys priced around him. Of the two, I prefer Hunter as I’d rather bet on the more talented player. Washington and Patrick are part-time players, with Washington consistently seeing 2-4 targets per game while Patrick seems to get exactly 1 target per game, oddly. Both are thin options on a slate chock full of value.

At tight end, with Brenton Strange hurt, Hunter Long stepped into a big role, playing 80% of the snaps (more than any other skill position player except BTJ), but it only resulted in 3 targets. Something to remember: when a new guy fills in for a hurt guy, the new guy doesn’t necessarily get the same target rate. Long is a relatively raw rookie who was a 3rd round pick. He only had 89 receptions in his college career, so it’s reasonable to think he still has some seasoning to do. He’s another guy who’s going to get lost in the value bonanza of this slate – I prefer him to the rotational WRs like Washington and Patrick, but the Rams are going to outproject all of these guys. We’ll talk about that more in the dynamics of the slate a bit later on. TE2 Johnny Mundt can be viewed as a thin dart throw.

los angeles

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• WR DJ Moore was hospitalized after the team’s MNF win over the Commanders. The team has been less than forthcoming on the reason for his overnight stay, with most recent reports indicating it was a “groin” issue.
• The Saints are effectively back to full health following the returns of TEs Taysom Hill and Foster Moreau.
• I’m writing this up before the Bears released their initial injury report because these two teams are two of the healthier teams in Week 7, but we’ll need to circle back on practice participations Friday.
• Both teams are bottom 10 in pass rate over expectation (PROE), with the Saints ranked 31^st and the Bears ranked 23^rd.
• RB Alvin Kamara (ankle) did not practice for the Saints Wednesday, although recent reports out of New Orleans hint at a load-management stance with their veteran running back’s ankle.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How New orleans Will Try To Win ::

The Saints continue to play at blistering speed but aren’t necessarily looking to go out and outscore their opponents to win games, instead ranked near the bottom of the league (31^st) in PROE with an extreme emphasis on passing to the short areas of the field against zone coverage. This is likely primarily due to their well-below-average quarterback situation with Spencer Rattler under center more than anything else, with the team instead reluctant to push the ball downfield with a low percentage downfield passer so as not to get behind the sticks more than they have to. That makes sense to me, but it also completely negates their uptempo nature as far as their game environments are concerned. The other aspect of their team that likely pushes them towards this mentality is a veteran defense that continues to play gritty football. They aren’t the fastest or most talented unit, but they are smart, disciplined, and tenacious, three things that combine to create a situation where the likeliest scenario leaves them at least within striking distance late into games. Losses against the Cardinals, 49ers, and Patriots by seven points or fewer emphasize that notion, while blowout losses to the Seahawks and Bills highlight how they can be simply outclassed against top-tier opponents (they beat the Giants for their only win of the season on the backs of five consecutive turnovers generated). I would argue the Bears are closer to the first grouping of teams than they are to the second, meaning the Saints should keep this game within reason and should be allowed to run their game plan deeper into the game.

Kamara continues to see his load managed as he works through an ankle injury, which appears to be the case as he missed practice on Wednesday. After starting the season playing 73% or more of the team’s offensive snaps in four straight games, Kamara has been capped at 63% in their two most recent games. That paved the way for Kendre Miller to see a 39% snap rate in consecutive contests. He has also seen between nine and 11 opportunities in three straight while Kamara has seen opportunities counts of 14 and 15 in Week 5 and 6, respectively. All of that to say, it is likely we see Miller continue in a “change-of-pace-plus” role for the Saints, which limits Kamara’s already shaky upside. While the matchup is pristine on the ground against a Chicago defense allowing 5.7 yards per carry (31^st) behind 2.73 yards allowed before contact per attempt (dead last), there likely isn’t enough volume for either player to warrant condensed-player-pool GPP consideration.

Crash the leaderboards

PFP the OWS pennant

Chris Olave was present on the New Orleans injury report Wednesday as a limited participant, but all signs point to it being a non-issue. The returns of tight ends Moreau and Hill two weeks ago led to the lowest snap rates of the season for Juwan Johnson, and Jack Stoll has continued to be involved. Johnson fell to 0.10 targets per route run (TPRR) and just 2.5 targets per game the previous two games for the Saints, although he was still in a route at an 80.6% frequency (in line with his season average). Olave’s 0.30 TPRR and 29.5% target rate continue to be ranked near the top of the league, and he now leads the league with 20.0 expected fantasy points per game (XFP/G). The crazy aspect of his role in this offense is that he leads the team with seven deep targets but has not put up more than 15.8 DK points in a game this season, going down as the largest gap in XFP/G and fantasy points per game (FP/G) in the league. Even so, he has seen double-digit targets in all but one game this season as the primary cog of the offense through the air, and this is about as good of a matchup as he will see all season. There are definite paths to him breaking out at some point. Rashid Shaheed is the field stretcher in the offense with a 10.8-yard aDOT, but he has actually seen one fewer deep target this season than Olave and is averaging just 6.0 targets per game. 

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The structure of the Miami offense has not fundamentally changed in the absence of Tyreek Hill. What has changed is a greater emphasis on 12-personnel with the injection of Darren Waller.
• On that note, Waller is not functioning like a true tight end in this offense, playing only 22.2% of his snaps inline.
• TE David Njoku (knee) did not practice Wednesday or Thursday and appears to be trending towards an absence.
• The same can be said of OT Jack Conklin (concussion).
• This is a potential weather game in Week 7 – check back later in the week for a clearer picture on how impactful that might be.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How MIAMI Will Try To Win ::

Tua Tagovailoa in Weeks 1-4, with Hill in the lineup: 6.4-yard aDOT, 8.8% deep-throw rate, 6.60 yards per attempt, 69.3% completion rate. Tua in Week 5-6, without Hill in the lineup: 7.3-yard aDOT, 8.8% deep-throw rate, 6.78 yards per attempt, 70.6% completion rate. The Dolphins have one spike pass rate over expectation (PROE) game this season, which came in a Week 5 loss to the Panthers. That is interesting to me, because the Panthers have faced the highest rush rate over expectation (RROE) of any team in the league this season. The Dolphins averaged 20.75 points per game in the four games with Hill on the field and 25.5 in the two games without him. If we remove the team’s Week 1 flop against the Colts, this team averaged 25.0 points per game with Hill. All of that to highlight the fact that the structure of this team has not materially changed in the absence of Hill after some (most? Me?) thought it would for the remainder of the season. The team continues to operate via elevated rates of 21-personnel through increased snap rates from fullback Alec Ingold, now adding additional rates of 12-personnel with the injection of Waller into the lineup (which would be the primary structural change in the offense without Hill). That said, Waller is functioning more like a mismatch receiver than he is a tight end in the current state of the roster, playing only 22.2% of his snaps inline (38.1% wide and 39.7% slot). Taking a little liberty with splits here, but if we remove their Week 1 blowout loss in which they managed only eight points, this team is averaging 25.2 points per game while scoring 21 or more in all five games. The problem isn’t their offense, as it was last season; the problem is a defense allowing 389.3 yards (30^th) and 29.0 points (29^th) per game.

De’Von Achane has played 82.4% of the team’s offensive snaps this season. That is, quite frankly, absurd. Change-of-pace back Ollie Gordon has played 24-26% of the offensive snaps in four of five games, giving us tight workload projection for Achane each time he takes the field. Taking away the team’s Week 1 blowout loss, Achane has seen exactly 21 or 22 opportunities in all but one game (17 against the Panthers). Achane has also now scored six touchdowns in as many games, with Week 6 serving as the first game in which he managed multiple scores, and the first game in which he went over 100 yards on the ground (hit 99 against the Jets). The problem here is twofold: (1) His path to more than 22 opportunities is somewhat thin, and (2) The matchup is atrocious. The Browns lead the league in yards allowed per carry (3.1) while also allowing the fewest yards before contact per attempt (1.10). That effectively makes the path to a GPP-worthy ceiling flow directly through multiple scores and elite pass-game usage. That is very much within his range of outcomes here, it simply gives you fewer outs in a GPP setting.

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PFP the OWS pennant

Another issue within that setup is a Browns defense that has funneled only 32 targets and ceded the fourth-fewest yards to the position through the air. The Browns also remain an extremely aggressive defense, playing man at the third-highest frequency (39.8%) while generating pressure at a solid 20.9% frequency (12^th). Tua also remains one of the most pressure-sensitive quarterbacks in the league, having completed just 51.1% of his passes with a 48.3 QBR and 2-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio on 63 pressured dropbacks this season. His aDOT on those throws is 6.2 yards with a low 6.7% deep-throw rate. An interesting aspect of this matchup on paper is the low man-coverage rates the Dolphins have seen this season (17.5%, more than only the Cardinals, Jaguars, and 49ers). I expect them to see the most man they have seen of any game this season here, and they are currently averaging the second-most fantasy points per dropback (FP/DB) against man (small sample and most of that came with Hill on the field). That doesn’t necessarily make this a great spot through the air, but it was eye-opening, nonetheless. Finally, I expect Jaylen Waddle to see a good deal of Denzel Ward in isolation, a matchup Ward has the upper hand in. 

HOW CLEVELAND WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Patriots lead the league in FP/DB against man coverage this season (1.00), something that drew my eye in early research this week. That said, we might have to file that one away for future use, considering the Titans have played the fifth lowest rates of man coverage this season (16.7%). Their FP/DB falls to 0.40 (14^th) against zone.
• The Titans also play the second lowest rate of single-high, while the Patriots rank sixth in FP/DB against single-high this season.
• Calvin Ridley did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday to start the week after picking up a hamstring injury in Week 6. It certainly appears as if he is headed towards a missed contest against the Patriots.
• Nose Tackle T’Vondre Sweat managed limited sessions through Thursday after seeing his 21-day practice window open as he attempts to return from injured reserve. He would be a massive addition to the run-stopping power of the Titans if he could return to action.
• Stefon Diggs (chest) was limited in each sessions this week (as of Thursday) but doesn’t appear to be in danger of missing Week 7.
• LB Harold Landry (ankle) has not practiced this week.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How new england Will Try To Win ::

The Patriots currently sit at a 4-2 record, having lost to the Raiders in Week 1 and the Steelers in Week 3. They have had three games of a positive PROE, which came in those two games and their Week 5 win over the Bills. They had a negative PROE against the Dolphins, Panthers, and Saints, all coming in wins. Drake Maye’s pass attempts in the three wins against teams that aren’t the Bills were 23, 17, and 26, with the defense scoring a touchdown in two of those three games. Which is to say, head coach Mike Vrabel and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels have taken games as they have come this season, which paints a much clearer picture than simply referencing their sixth-ranked PROE values through six weeks. Considering their opponent in Week 7 has averaged the fewest yards per game (232.3) and second fewest points per game (13.8), I think it’s fair to expect a more muted offensive game plan out of the Patriots this week.

Vrabel spoke to the media regarding his backfield this week, effectively saying that he thought his backs were running too cautiously while worrying too much about ball security. Everything we’ve seen from Vrabel has been positive reinforcement regarding Rhamondre Stevenson’s fumbling issues, and the veteran back got up to a season-high 72% snap rate and 13 carries in their Week 6 win over the Saints. That said, this is still a back with a season-high of only 13 carries, so there likely isn’t enough volume here to matter in GPPs this week, even though the matchup is premier against a Titans team allowing the fourth most DK points per game, 4.5 yards per carry (21^st), and 133.7 rush yards per game (25^th). TreVeyon Henderson has just two games with more than 35% of the offensive snaps and carries little upside on a season-high of 14 opportunities.

The pass-catching corps has been a maddening rotation outside of tight end Hunter Henry, with all of Kayshon Boutte, Mack Hollins, Austin Hooper, Stefon Diggs, DeMario Douglas, and Kyle Williams seeing rotational roles (listed in order of total snaps played this season). That said, we have seen meaningful GPP scores emerge from this offense through the season, with Diggs (19.1 and 27.6), Boutte (19.3 and 26.3), and Henry (29.0). Those games all came in different weeks. Another way of looking at this situation is that this team has returned a 4x salary multiplier (or extremely close to it) in five of six games played, or against every team other than the Dolphins. To that end, all three of those players warrant MME consideration in a spot like this, but it is extremely difficult to narrow down where the production is likeliest to flow, considering the low relative snap rates they all play (outside of Hunter). Maye is now also priced up to an appropriate price relative to his range of outcomes, having hit a 4x multiplier on his Week 7 salary twice in six games while peaking at 27.3 DK points this season (4.33x multiplier on his Week 6 salary). This is not the offense (for me) to target in small field or single entry contests this week, given the matchup and previous production.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By PAPY324 >>

• The Chiefs are remarkably healthy. RB Brashard Smith missed practice Wednesday with an illness and LT Josh Simmons sat out for personal reasons. Everyone else practiced. 
• TE Brock Bowers, RB Dylan Laube, and WR Jakobi Meyers missed practice Wednesday for the Raiders with a knee, hammy, and toe injury, respectively. 
• The Chiefs’ record doesn’t reflect how well they’ve played, and they will finally have all their offensive weapons available.
• Rashee Rice is set for his first real game action in over a year. It’s difficult to know exactly how he’ll be utilized, but there is a good chance he steps back into his old role. 
• Isiah Pacheco played over 60% of the snaps the past two weeks. 
• Travis Kelce has enough juice left to be a productive role player, but he can no longer carry an offense as the primary receiving threat.
• The Chiefs’ O-line has returned to performing at a top-five level, something they’ve been sorely missing the past two seasons.
• Geno Smith has been a major disappointment.
• Ashton Jeanty gets a lot of opportunities, but he’s running behind the worst run-blocking O-line in the league and has a limited pass-catching role. 
• Meyers hasn’t seen volume the past four weeks.
• Michael Mayer is too cheap for being a full-time player with Bowers likely to miss another week.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How LAS VEGAS Will Try To Win ::

The 2-4 Raiders come into Week 7 playing for their season. Since 1990, 163 teams started 2-5 and only 10 made the playoffs. There is no reason to think the Raiders would be an exception to the rule, with three other teams in their division that could all finish with winning records. If they drop this game, they might as well start thinking about next year’s draft. The Raiders have been leaning on the run (23^rd in PROE). That makes sense after using a premium draft pick on a running back. They brought in Smith to rejuvenate their passing game and it was expected that offensive coordinator Chip Kelly would play with pace, as he’s done during most of his career. Curiously, Kelly has decided to play slowly (30^th in seconds per play), which makes even less sense when you consider that the Raiders are 2-4 with a minus-46 point differential. When you take away pace from a Kelly offense, it starts to look like what we saw from offensive coordinators in the 1990s. 

Crash the leaderboards

PFP the OWS pennant

The Chiefs have been adequate (16^th in DVOA) against the run and middling (17^th in DVOA) against the pass. This is the most vulnerable Chiefs’ defense in years, but they aren’t especially weak in one area. The Raiders don’t have a reason to tilt their game plan away from trying to win on the ground. The main reason the Raiders offense has struggled is their O-line. They’ve been poor (28^th-ranked by PFF) and have been especially bad at run blocking. It’s difficult to get a fair read on Jeanty as a player because he so often gets hit at or behind the line of scrimmage. Kelly wants to feed him the rock, but last week against the Titans’ soft underbelly Jeanty averaged only 3.3 YPC on 23 attempts. That’s poor against anyone but is made worse by the fact that the Titans entered the game ranked as a bottom-five run defense. The Raiders aren’t much better at pass blocking, ranking 21^st in pass-blocking efficiency after allowing seven pressures on only 25 pass plays against the Titans. The Raiders are going to stick with the ground game, but it’s never going to be efficient without better blocking. Expect Vegas to try and win on the ground, but don’t be surprised if they fail. 

How KANSAS CITY Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Eagles CB Quinyon Mitchell (hamstring) upgraded to a full practice Thursday and appears to be tracking to suit up in Week 7 against the Vikings.
• The Minnesota QB situation appears to still be in flux, with Carson Wentz practicing in full both days this week (through Thursday) and J.J. McCarthy limited both days. Head coach Kevin O’Connell continues to stress that he wants McCarthy to be back to full strength before returning as the starter, something I don’t know has been exhibited just yet.
• The Vikings averaged 226 yards of total offense per game in J.J. McCarthy’s two starts and 357.67 yards per game in Wentz’s three starts.
• This game carries an immensely wide range of outcomes, dependent on multiple factors (discussed more below).

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

The Eagles tied with the Buccaneers in scoring in 2024 at 29.0 points per game. After the change in offensive coordinator during the offseason, they are now averaging 23.7 points per game, which marks the third largest dip in scoring from 2024 to 2025 (Ravens and Bengals have a higher drop, but both have played without their All-Pro quarterbacks for most of the season while the Eagles had one of the highest personnel retention on the offensive side of the ball). They have gone from averaging over 366 yards of total offense per game in 2024 to 274.5 in 2025, the third largest drop off in the league (also the Ravens and Bengals). Their offense is broken, and their star wide receivers are beginning to be vocal about it (surprise, surprise). Tackles Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson have vastly underperformed their high pedigree this season, while the continued absence of Landon Dickerson has left the offensive line underperforming in run-blocking metrics. They would also rank near the bottom of the league in PROE were it not for their Week 5 game, in which they had the highest PROE value of any team in any game this season (greater than three standard deviations above neutral against the Broncos). They are also allowing almost six points per game more in 2025 than they did in 2024, which is a higher increase than all but three teams (Bears, Dolphins, and Ravens). That exploration highlights the fact that I don’t know if the Eagles even know how they’re trying to win games yet this season, making them one of only a handful of teams that are still working to find their identity after six weeks.

As mentioned above, the Philadelphia offensive line has really struggled to start the season, blocking to only 1.46 yards before contact per attempt (bottom 10) after leading the league in that metric a season ago. But hey, they still have the tush push, right? RIGHT!? Shout out to them for executing the most hated play in football on four consecutive plays last week. That was fun. The declining play of the offensive line and poor situational play calling from new offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo is evident in Saquon Barkley’s metrics this season, with the All-World back rushing to just 3.42 yards per carry with a lowly 4.2% explosive run rate. Sorry, sports fans, but he’s effectively D’Andre Swift this season, if we remove the names and only look at underlying metrics. Harsh remarks aside, this is still one of the most talented backs in the league in a plus matchup against a Vikings team ceding 4.5 yards per carry behind 2.08 yards before contact allowed per carry. He also maintains one of the most robust snap rates at the position, having seen a 79% snap rate or higher in all six games.

The all-around struggles of the offense have quarterback Jalen Hurts averaging just 28.8 pass attempts per game, but for far different reasons than his low 25.7 pass attempts per game in 2024. And since the run game has been so ineffective, opponents have been less likely to play man coverage against them this season (16.7% Cover-1 rate faced), leading to total offensive failure considering Hurts is averaging the fifth-lowest FP/DB against zone this season. No pass-catcher has greater than a 0.23 TPRR or 25.6% target share (both A.J. Brown), with tight end Dallas Goedert leading the team in FP/RR (0.54) because of his five touchdowns (no other player has more than one). In fact, all of Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Goedert are averaging 12.0 and 13.2 XFP/G. For the wide receivers, this ranks them outside the top 24 at the position, while Goedert ranks third at tight end due to his hefty red zone role through six games. The matchup is poor for the wide receiver against a Vikings defense holding opponents to the fewest DK points per game (20.0, 20% fewer than the second-place Broncos), while Goedert sees a more neutral matchup on paper.

How minnesota Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• These two teams rank 32^nd (Jets) and 30^th (Panthers) in pass rate over expectation (PROE) through the first third of the season.
• The Panthers have allowed just 2.5 yards per carry during their previous three games and are now in the top five in composite metrics against the run.
• Only Cooper Rush, Dillon Gabriel, Mac Jones, Michael Penix, and Jared Goff have lower deep-throw rates than Bryce Young, and Justin Fields ranks lower than all of those quarterbacks other than Goff. Neither of these offenses are attacking downfield at meaningful rates.
• Tetairoa McMillan has accounted for a modest 22.4% target share and 0.23 targets per route run (TPRR) as the “alpha” in a low-pass-volume offense.
• All of Chuba Hubbard, Jalen Coker, and Ja’Tavion Sanders are currently trending to return to the game-day roster for the Panthers after missing multiple games.
• Garrett Wilson is expected to miss multiple games with a knee injury sustained in Week 6.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How CAROLINA Will Try To Win ::

The Panthers started the season 0-2 before going 3-1 in the subsequent four games, including wins over the Falcons and Cowboys. During that four-game stretch, quarterback Bryce Young has averaged just 27.25 pass attempts per game as the teams has inched its way towards the bottom of the league in PROE (30^th). This is a team that wants to be methodical on offense and force teams to march the field against them on defense, as evidenced by Young’s low 7.5% deep-throw rate and the team’s defensive alignment tendencies (heavy zone and heavy Cover-3). They should also be afforded the opportunity to continue those tendencies deep into the game against a Jets opponent that has almost zero downfield ability of its own and the heaviest rush rate over expectation (RROE) in the league.

The most interesting wrinkle to this game is the likely reintroduction of Hubbard to the offensive game plan after the veteran back missed the previous two games. Hubbard managed a limited showing in Wednesday’s practice, his first such appearance since aggravating a calf injury in the team’s Week 4 loss to the Patriots. That places him in position to return to the game-day roster. The uncertainty of the situation arises when you consider how effective Rico Dowdle has been in his absence, amassing a ridiculous 473 yards from scrimmage in two games. Head coach Dave Canales was noncommittal when asked what the workload split would be moving forward or if Dowdle had earned the right to be the starter the rest of the season, but I have to think he will be more involved than he had been the first month, when he averaged a 35.5% snap rate. My expectation is that Dowdle starts and serves as the 1A to Hubbard’s 1B, likely finishing in the 55-65% snap-rate and opportunity-share range. There is both upside and downside in that expectation in that everything from Hubbard returning to his previous role to Dowdle maintaining a featured-back workload are on the table here. The Jets have allowed a middling 4.3 yards per carry behind a well above-average 1.26 yards allowed before contact per attempt, with the 130.0 yards allowed per game heavily influenced by the 30.5 rush attempts per game they have faced (second most behind only the Bengals).

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Second-year wide receiver Jalen Coker got in another full practice Wednesday after participating in full in each practice last week before ultimately being held out in Week 6. I would expect he returns to the lineup in Week 7, and I would also expect him to immediately serve as the primary slot receiver over Hunter Renfrow. The previous four games has seen the Panthers shift to heavier rates of 12-personnel, something that is likely to suppress Coker’s overall snap rate in his season debut. Xavier Leggette has been held to an 80% snap rate or fewer in all four active games this season, leaving only McMillan in a near every-down role in the offense considering Sanders is also expected to return from a three-game absence. Even if Sanders doesn’t return after a limited showing in practice Wednesday, Tommy Tremble peaked at a 76% snap rate in the three games without Sanders. McMillan has accounted for a modest 22.4% target share and 0.23 TPRR as the “alpha” in a low-pass-volume offense, leaving little to love through the air on paper.

HOW NEW YORK WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• New York rides the momentum of their upset win over the Eagles and will have 10 days of rest between games heading into this one, while Denver is returning from their game in Europe.
• The Giants offense looked terrific against Philadelphia, but benefitted greatly from the short week and mounting injuries to the Eagles in that game. 
• Denver’s defense has been DOMINANT in their three games against offenses that are lacking in overall talent.
• The Broncos offense struggled against the Jets in a matchup that did not suit their strengths well, while this week the table is set for them to get back on track.

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How new york Will Try To Win ::

After an 0-3 start to the season, the Giants have won two of their last three games since making the switch to first round rookie QB Jaxson Dart. The team has been reinvigorated in recent weeks by the energy of Dart and fellow rookie, RB Cam Skattebo. The Giants seemed to catch the Chargers off guard and stole one from them in Dart’s debut, before self-inflicting a lot of mistakes against the Saints in a game where they turned the ball over 5 times. Following the ugly loss in New Orleans, the Giants stole one from the reeling Eagles on a short week last Thursday and seemed to steal the nation’s hearts with their inspired play and energetic antics. Things seem to be looking up in the Big Apple. 

Not so fast. The Giants have had a couple of impressive victories, but they also caught a couple of teams at the right time and are simply lacking in talent in a lot of areas. New York benefitted from the Eagles making star defensive lineman Jalen Carter inactive prior to the game and then cornerback Quinyon Mitchell’s first half injury that allowed the Giants passing game to have success. New York has done a good job protecting Dart, as they have been extremely run-oriented with Dart under center and on called passing plays they have given him the green light to use his legs and take off. The Giants passing game is primarily focused on short-area concepts and the main targets over the last two weeks have been slot receiver Wan’Dale Robinson and tight end Theo Johnson. The team lost Malik Nabers for the season and veteran Darius Slayton missed the last game due to a hamstring injury, which left journeyman Lil’Jordan Humphrey and the speedy but inconsistent Jalin Hyatt as the team’s primary outside receivers.

This week the Giants face a Broncos defense that entered the year with a strong reputation and continues to build on that. Denver has played six games, with three coming against opponents with weak offenses. Those games against the Jets, Bengals, and Titans were eye-opening, as Denver held those three teams to yardage totals of 82, 159, and 133 – an average of 125 TOTAL yards per game. The Broncos have one of the league’s best pass rushes and accumulated 18 sacks in those three games as well. The Broncos had a little rough patch in Weeks 2 and 3 against the Colts and Chargers offenses at full strength, but also put the clamps on the Eagles in Week 5. All things considered, this is an elite defensive unit that suffocates teams who do not have both a great scheme and strong personnel. New York’s approach in this game will have to focus on ball control, field position, the running game, and Dart making plays with his legs. The team must get the ball out of Dart’s hands fast enough to avoid Denver’s pass rush forcing bad decisions and they also must rely on their offensive line opening up holes in the running game against a strong Broncos defensive front.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike Johnson >>

• The Colts lead the league in scoring at 32.3 points per game and would likely be 6-0 if not for Adonai Mitchell’s early celebration against the Rams.
• Jonathan Taylor is the league’s leading rusher and has an elite matchup against a Chargers defense that has been destroyed by De’Von Achane and Jacory Croskey-Merritt over the last two weeks.
• Los Angeles played their first game without Omarion Hampton last week and explosive second year RB Kimani Vidal seized control of the backfield.
• The Chargers expect to have WR Quentin Johnston back in the lineup this week for a game in which they are likely to be forced to score a lot of points to keep pace.
• Chargers games have been lower scoring this season than underlying metrics would expect in large part due to their red zone struggles on offense and their ability to keep their opponents from scoring touchdowns in the red zone as well.

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How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

The Colts have been one of the best stories in the NFL to start the season as the Daniel Jones revival tour continued in Week 6 with another fourth quarter comeback on a game winning drive, his second of the season. Indianapolis has scored 29 or more points in five of their six games so far this season. The one game in which they failed to do so, they scored 20 against a very strong Rams defense and realistically it should have been 27 if Adonai Mitchell had not let go of the ball and possibly his career with the Colts at the one yard line. This week they face a Chargers defense that has surrendered 20+ points to every team except the Raiders and is battling several injuries at this point. The matchup in terms of strength against weakness also bodes extremely well for the Colts.

While the play of Daniel Jones has been a great story, this team is built first and foremost around all pro RB Jonathan Taylor. JT leads the league in rushing and total touchdowns through six weeks, while catching at least four passes in each of the last four games. The Colts have also blown out three of their opponents, so Taylor’s numbers could easily be even higher if not for game script allowing them to rest him late in those spots. This week the Colts face a Chargers defense that has been destroyed on the ground of late – with each of Jacory Croskey-Merritt and De’Von Achane having their best games of the season against Los Angeles in the last two weeks. Both JCM and Achane averaged eight yards per carry and went over 100 rushing yards, while each also scored two touchdowns. The Colts offensive line is fourth in the NFL in adjusted line yards per carry and Taylor is playing at an elite level, which means that the Colts approach in this spot will start heavily focused on Taylor and likely stay that way until the Chargers show they are able to slow him down, which may not happen at all.

When the Colts do take to the air, their top options have been rookie tight end Tyler Warren and wide receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. Downs played all of Week 6 and played well, but has since been put in concussion protocol for a hit that was missed during the game (likely on his touchdown) and his status for this game is in doubt. The likely effect of this would be for Pittman to move into the slot wide receiver role with Alec Pierce and Ashton Dulin the perimeter downfield threats in three wide receiver personnel, while Pittman will bump outside and push Dulin to the bench in two wide receiver formations. The Chargers play a heavy rate of zone coverage and most of Daniel Jones’ targets will likely funnel to Warren and Pittman with Downs unlikely to be in the mix. This should concentrate the targets a bit for the Colts and raise both the floor and ceiling for Warren and Pittman. Meanwhile, the likely success of their running game should open up some opportunities for downfield shots as the Chargers will likely be forced to load the box unless they are cool with letting JT run for 200 yards.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• Washington looks to bounce back on a short week from a Monday night loss to the Bears, which they handed away in the fourth quarter.
• The Commanders have scored 24 or more points in four straight games, while the Cowboys have allowed all six of their opponents to score at least 24 points this season.
• Washington may be without their top two wide receivers, Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel Sr., in this game.
• Commanders running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt seems to have taken control of the backfield and has an elite matchup against the Dallas run defense.
• Dallas welcomes back their own star wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, who has resumed practicing and will return from his high ankle sprain this week.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How washington Will Try To Win ::

The Commanders enter Week 7 on a short week after their Monday night debacle against the Bears that ended with them fumbling the game away in wet conditions and letting a previously dormant Bears running game steamroll them. Washington was the Cinderella story of the NFL in 2024 as Jayden Daniels rookie season seemed to see everything break right for the Commanders and everything fell into place en route to their run to the NFC Championship game. This year, however, Washington has been battling injuries, variance/luck, and their own self-inflicted issues, which have led them to this point with a 3-3 record and a difficult upcoming schedule. The next three games for Washington after this week are against the Chiefs, Seahawks, and Lions – three of the stronger teams in the NFL at the moment. This game is highly critical for the Commanders for many reasons, and with their upcoming schedule, they need to take care of business in a very winnable divisional game.

Washington has a fairly neutral pass rate so far this season, even with Daniels missing multiple games. The Commanders running game has been very solid this year, ranking 10th in rushing offense DVOA, 11th in adjusted line yards per carry, and 8th in PFF rushing grade through six weeks. They have done this despite a rotating cast of running backs who most would classify as replacement level talents. Among those backs, rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt has been the strongest of late and broke out in a big way two weeks ago against a struggling Chargers run defense for 111 rushing yards and two touchdowns. The matchup on the ground this week is a ripe one against a Dallas defense that ranks 29th in run defense DVOA, 32nd in PFF run defense grade, and has surrendered an *AVERAGE* of 184 yards per scrimmage to opposing RB1s over the last three weeks – with all three backs accumulating at least 155 total yards. JCM set a season high in playing time at 66% of the team’s offensive snaps in Week 6 despite a first quarter fumble. Considering his last two games consist of an elite breakout performance and an expanded role, this matchup with one of the league’s worst run defenses is one that he is likely to have a lot of opportunities in, and where we should expect him to be successful in those opportunities.

When they do pass, Daniels has an average depth of target that is slightly greater than the league average, as he is fully capable of throwing the deep ball. Daniels has been back for two games since his return from his knee injury. In those two games, Daniels faced the Chargers in a spot where Washington was in control and he was not asked to do much through the air and then faced the Bears in a sloppy and wet weather game. He started to look like the guy we all expect to see on Monday night, averaging over 8 yards per pass attempt, throwing three touchdown passes, and rushing 10 times for 52 yards. Dallas blitzes at a below average rate, but has surprisingly generated the second highest rate of QB pressure in the NFL, as they have pressured opposing QBs on 31.8% of dropbacks this season. Daniels has elite pocket presence and mobility, while the Cowboys lack elite athletes and pass rushers to finish the job – Dallas has only 11 sacks through six games despite their high rate of pressure. This creates a situation where they may be able to force Daniels off his spot often in this matchup, but they are likely going to struggle to contain his rushing ability and could give up some broken plays downfield once he gets outside the pocket.

As for the players who will catch the passes, that is the biggest question mark for Washington this week. Star receiver Terry McLaurin has missed the last three games due to a quad injury and after being a limited participant in the team’s Wednesday walk-through, he did not practice at all on Thursday, making it seem unlikely that he will be available for this game. Meanwhile, Deebo Samuel Sr. has been the team’s top receiving option this season, but was a game-time decision to be active Monday night and ended up having his worst game of the season. He has missed both practices to start the week as well. The most reliable remaining receiving option for Daniels will be veteran tight end Zach Ertz, who has a tremendous connection with Daniels and is likely to be a regular target against the Dallas zone defense. Dallas has surrendered stat lines to opposing tight ends with clear TE1 roles of 9 receptions for 67 yards (Mason Taylor), 5 receptions for 56 yards (Tucker Kraft), and 7 receptions for 44 yards (Dallas Goedert). Ertz will be busy in this one assuming both McLaurin and Deebo are out. The rest of the receiving corps becomes interesting for this matchup as the starters would likely be veteran Chris Moore, second year receiver Luke McCaffrey, and explosive rookie Jaylin Lane. Moore is clearly an X-receiver and plays on the perimeter running field stretching routes. Prior to Monday night, he had not produced much of anything despite extensive playing time. Lane is explosive and dynamic and can line up at multiple spots, while McCaffrey profiles most effectively as the slot receiver and could eat in this matchup if Deebo is out. If Deebo plays, that would likely result in McCaffrey and Lane rotating snaps as they did on Monday night. The Dallas defense started the season being burned by the deep ball over the first four games, but had that deficiency masked by facing Justin Fields and Bryce Young the last two weeks. Jayden Daniels is one of the best deep ball passers in the league and is likely to connect on multiple deep passes in this one, especially given the likelihood that Dallas is unable to create sacks.

How dallas Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• Packers running back Josh Jacobs remains the team’s offensive centerpiece, while rookie wide receiver Matthew Golden had an expanded role coming out of the team’s Week 5 bye.
• Green Bay’s defense has played very well for most of the season, with the one exception happening to come in a primetime game against the Cowboys.
• Arizona’s offense looked the best it has all season in their close loss to the Colts last week with veteran Jacoby Brissett under center in place of QB Kyler Murray, who is likely to miss this game as well.
• Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. suffered a concussion in Week 7 and may be held out of this game with the team’s bye week on deck.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How green bay Will Try To Win ::

The Packers offense remains a relatively predictable one in terms of how they will approach things from an overall philosophy standpoint. They are a team that operates at a slow pace (29th in raw pace of play) and will bleed the play clock, rarely pushing the tempo or going no huddle unless they are forced to do so late in games. They also operate as a run-based offense, ranking near the bottom of the league in pass rate relative to expectation. When Green Bay does take to the air, they are relatively aggressive downfield and Jordan Love ranks 5th in the NFL in intended air yards per pass attempt this season, just as he has in each of the last two seasons as a starter. The Packers like to utilize play-action and build their passing game concepts as an extension from their running game. Again, these are consistent concepts we see from the Packers regardless of opponent and they only make small deviations in the “how” of this approach but overall this is a team we can have strong confidence in from week to week as far as play calling and personnel usage.

The running game obviously relies primarily on all-pro RB Josh Jacobs, who is in his second season with the team and is a tough inside runner who also has a dynamic skill set that fits their scheme well. Jacobs can be used in the passing game as well and is averaging 4.7 receptions for 57 yards per game over the last three games. This offense revolves around him first and foremost, with everything else working as a complement and/or benefiting from the attention he draws. The Packers offensive line has struggled with health and efficiency at times this season, but is getting healthier, while the Cardinals have a middling run defense that is not a “poor” unit, but is far from a brick wall. 

When Green Bay does take to the air, their three primary receiving options are tight end Tucker Kraft and wide receivers Romeo Doubs and Matthew Golden. Kraft is great in the short to intermediate areas of the field and has great after-catch ability. Doubs leads the team in targets and touchdowns, but is relatively reliant on his red zone role for production as he is not consistently targeted downfield and isn’t the type of player to gain a ton of separation or make big plays after the catch. Meanwhile, Golden is an electric rookie whose role was emphasized by the Packers last week, coming out of their bye. Golden has a reception of 30+ yards in three straight games and he has an average of two carries per game over the last four weeks as the team looks for ways to get the ball into his hands. The “roles” of these pass catchers seem to be Golden when they are looking for explosive plays and/or to stress a defense horizontally and vertically, Doubs as a preferred target in the red zone and for contested catches in high leverage third down situations, Kraft as a dynamic playmaker who can be used as a weapon up the seam against certain coverages, and Jacobs as a safety valve who Love gets the ball to in space when all else fails. All four players have between 19 and 28 targets on the season, while Dontayvion Wicks also has 18 targets but left last week’s game with an injury and is in doubt for this matchup. Arizona mixes up their coverages, but their general tendency is a conservative unit that tries to keep things in front of them. Theoretically, this sets up as a spot where Kraft could get opportunities depending on the coverages the Cardinals throw at them. Their shell coverages generally take away downfield passing well, which leads to after catch ability being needed to create chunk plays against Arizona. The top targets for the Colts last week against Arizona were TE Tyler Warren and slot WR Josh Downs. I would expect Kraft and Golden to be used similarly as explosive players who Green Bay looks to get the ball to and let them go make plays.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday Night Football has the Falcons visiting San Francisco for a 47.5 total game with the 49ers favored by 2.5. Both teams are expecting reinforcements as George Kittle and Darnell Mooney are both expected to play, per the coaches. 

SAN FRANCISCO

On the 49ers side of things, Christian McCaffrey is in one of the elite bell cow roles of the league, playing at least 76% of the offensive snaps in every game. CMC is averaging – AVERAGING – 28 opportunities per game, which is absolutely insane. He has at least 6 receptions in every game. Kittle coming back does give San Francisco another capable receiver, but he’s never been a high-volume guy, and any target reduction is offset by San Francisco getting back one of their key blockers, which should help CMC’s rushing efficiency. Efficiency has been the only knock against CMC as he’s averaging only 3.1 yards per carry this year, the lowest of his career, but a matchup against an Atlanta D allowing a whopping 4.8 yards per carry, along with Kittle being back, should help him there. CMS is an elite play. Not much else to say about him. RB2 Brian Robinson is barely seeing the field while CMC is healthy. You can take a shot here, of course, as if he finds the end zone, he could be relevant, but he’s at least $1k too expensive for his role, and he probably needs CMC to get hurt in order to have much of a shot at fantasy relevance. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, Brock Purdy, Brandon Aiyuk, and Ricky Pearsall remain out, leaving Mac Jones at quarterback and a wide receiver corps of Jauan Jennings, Kendrick Bourne, Demarcus Robinson, and Skyy Moore (Marquez Valdes-Scantling was also put on injured reserve this week). Jennings is also playing with broken ribs, which is clearly affecting his mobility. He was running routes last week but only saw 3 targets despite Jones throwing 39 times. I assume that will suppress his ownership, but he’s really just a volatile tourney play at the moment. Not necessarily a bad play, but just don’t be surprised if he has another game similar to last week. Bourne and Jones played together in New England, and OWS was all over that connection earlier this year, and Bourne has caught 15 of 20 targets for 284 yards in their last two games together. I expect him to be very highly owned, but he sure looks like the WR1 of this offense right now. The matchup is not great, as I expect him to see a lot of top Atlanta cornerback A.J. Terrell, but we care more about volume. Bourne is a solid play at his price, and Kittle’s return might keep his ownership from getting out of control. Robinson should be in the WR3 role, though the 49ers play a lot of 2-wide sets with 2 TEs or fullback Kyle Juszczyk on the field, so their WR3 role is generally somewhat limited production-wise, leaving him as a fairly thin value option, and then Moore is just a dart throw.

Kittle should return to something like his normal full role, but there is some additional volatility here. Maybe he’s totally normal, maybe he’s restricted a little bit, but either way, we haven’t seen him with Jones yet, and so it’s a little tougher than usual to see how his role might shake out. Kittle is always a volatile low floor, high ceiling play, so nothing really changes a ton with that profile, but he still has one of the highest ceilings on the slate. Just remember, something like 3 catches for 22 yards is also well within his range of outcomes. In Kittle’s absence, Jake Tonges has shown himself to be a capable receiver and a real part of the offense. I expect he retains some kind of role and can still be viewed as a tournament dart throw. 

ATLANTA

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

The first of our Monday games has the Bucs visiting the Lions for a 52.5 total game with Detroit favored by 6. The big deal for our purposes is injuries: Mike Evans is expected back, while Emeka Egbuka looks more doubtful (though apparently has a “real chance” to play per beat reporters/coaches). I’m going to assume Evans is in and Egbuka is out, but obviously, if Egbuka plays, that changes things. General note with injury stuff: unless we have concrete information that says otherwise, I assume if a guy’s playing, he’s in his normal role. I’m not a doctor; I have no edge in guessing at medical stuff. You can certainly make bets that Egbuka plays, but isn’t in a full role (or even the same for Evans).

DETROIT

On the Lions side, they face a Bucs D that has been difficult to run against and faced one of the highest pass rates over expectation for years now. So far, they’ve looked the same as they’ve only allowed over 100 rushing yards in 1 of 6 games on the season. The Lions are one of the best rushing teams in the league, so I won’t just write them off, but it’s going to be tougher sailing than usual for Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. We also have a split backfield situation that isn’t really priced like it, with Gibbs at $10.4k and Montgomery at $7.4k. That’s the single most expensive backfield (as in, RB1 + RB2) we’ve seen this season in Showdown, and it’s not even particularly close. It’s very reasonable to say they’re objectively overpriced. Gibbs has only reached the 20+ opportunity mark once on the season and is averaging 18.6 opportunities per game, while Monty is at 12.5 opportunities per game. Gibbs is the better on paper play here: he’s more talented, he gets more touches, and he gets more passing game work. He’s still overpriced for his role in this matchup, but his ceiling is much higher. Monty’s a much tougher sell as he’s now priced above the level where something like 50 yards and a touchdown is likely to get him into the optimal lineup. Both are somewhat contrarian, except I expect that Gibbs will be one of the highest owned plays on the slate (as he usually is). I would argue the “right” play over the long term is to fade him, but it’s scary given his ceiling. Totally viable to play him, totally viable to fade him, also totally viable to just play in line with expected ownership and figure that you’ll take your stands elsewhere.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the primary wideouts are Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. ASRB is the best skill position play in the game, in my opinion: he fits the pass funnel nature of the Bucs D, he has 6 touchdowns on the season with an awesome 11 red zone targets (2nd in the NFL), and he has an elite 30.5% target share. His role is massive, and he’s an elite player. I personally think he’s a much better play than Gibbs (or Egbuka, or Evans, or anyone). Williams is much more volatile as the offense’s primary deep threat. He’s also priced all the way up to $8k, which is historically expensive for him in Showdown. He’s still a fine play to me and I think his price will keep people off of him. If we believe the Lions are going to have trouble running the ball, we have to decide if we think their offense just fails or if it succeeds through the air. If the former, play the Bucs D in onslaughts and win all the money if you’re right. If the latter, an increased pass rate would be a boost to Williams. He doesn’t project all that well from a median perspective, which, combined with the price, should make him quite underowned (anything under 25% or so is a gift). Kalif Raymond had the WR3 earlier in the season but suffered a neck injury and missed Week 5. He came back last week but only played 2 snaps, and it’s unclear if he’s lost his job to the more talented Isaac TeSlaa or if they were just eating him back in after the injury. TeSlaa is the better player and the one I’d rather play of the two, and since they’re competing for snaps, I definitely wouldn’t play them together, but regardless, they’re both fairly thin punt options as the WR3 in this offense has historically not been very involved with how stud-heavy the Lions are.

At tight end, Sam LaPorta actually leads all pass catchers in snaps, and then Brock Wright is in roughly a half-time role. LaPorta is the very definition of “fine.” He’s a little on the expensive side at $6,800, but as already mentioned, the matchup leans to attacking through the air. He’s almost certainly going to need a touchdown to pay off because his target share is fairly modest, but he’s 2nd on the team in red zone targets behind ASRB, so he has a decent chance of getting one. You can take a stand here if you want, but I’m probably just going to play right around the ownership on him and try to win elsewhere. Wright has some really funny game logs in that he has exactly 3 targets in two games, and he scored a touchdown in each game, but otherwise has 0 targets on the season. He oddly has more red zone targets than Williams and as many as Gibbs, and at $1,600, he deserves to be in player pools, but it’s likely we’ll have better overall value on the Bucs side of things. 

tampa bay

The Deuce

Strategy Ideas and Things To Consider for Monday’s 2-game Slate:

Overview::

It is important to understand the big picture of these teams both in terms of their inner workings and their perceptions entering this week::

• Bucs – Tampa Bay has battled through a litany of injuries this season, but Baker Mayfield has just kept producing as the Bucs have scored 25+ points in four straight games. Now they are likely to get Mike Evans back on the field, with an outside chance for Emeka Egbuka to play through his hamstring injury. Whoever is on the field at receiver for the Bucs is likely to have success, as Detroit has the 5th ranked run defense in the league and will be without four of their top five defensive backs due to injuries and suspension. 
• Lions – Detroit returns home after a tough loss to the Chiefs last week. Jared Goff’s home/road splits have been massive during his time with the Lions and the Bucs are one of the bigger “pass funnel” teams in the league. We have seen this movie before with the Lions defense when they were decimated in the second half of last season and their games were all shootouts. For what it is worth, this week Dan Campbell said the team wants to split the running back work more evenly. The reality is this matchup suits Gibbs in the passing game far better than the between the tackles style of Montgomery.
• Texans – Houston emerges from their bye week with a 2-3 record and a grueling upcoming schedule. They will be without veteran WR Christian Kirk, which further emphasizes the role of Nico Collins while also bringing some value WRs into the mix in this spot. The team played Week 1 and 2 without Kirk as well, but Justin Watson played a lot of snaps those weeks and is now on injured reserve. This makes the secondary Texans receivers a spot that will likely have a big impact on the slate. Also, there are not great running back options on this slate and the Texans RBs are cheap. 
• Seahawks – Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been awesome this season, but this is easily his toughest matchup to date with the Texans pass defense that is ranked third in DVOA. Houston has been a lot easier to run the ball against than to pass it. Unfortunately the Seahawks running game has not been dependable this season and they split the work. Seattle will likely depend heavily on their defense giving them good field position to create points.

QB Thoughts::

• I am not really overthinking things here, as the salaries of Mayfield and Goff are higher than Stroud and Darnold, but their range of outcomes is so much different as well. Both TB and DET have pass funnel defenses and it feels fairly likely that at least one of the QBs there goes over 25 points, with the potential for both doing so or one of them getting to 30….while in the HOU/SEA game it feels like we’ll be somewhat lucky if either QB gets to 20. 

My guess on final ownership::

• Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff – 25 to 35%
• Sam Darnold and CJ Stroud – 15 to 22%

RB Thoughts::

• Jahmyr Gibbs and Rachaad White are the top running backs on the slate by a wide margin.
• David Montgomery’s coach wants to give him the ball more but this is a matchup where he is least likely to be efficient with those touches and Detroit seems likely to have to throw the ball a lot more. I think my favorite way to play him might be WITH Jared Goff as a bet on Detroit scoring five or six TDs.
• Kenneth Walker III has played better than Zach Charbonnet, but still splits the backfield with him. Very few rosters will have three RBs, while Gibbs and White will likely both be well north of 50% ownership, which means Walker will probably settle in the 25% range. Seattle has a bye next week and part of the reason they have been doing the committee is seemingly to preserve Walker’s health, so you could make a bet on them letting him off the leash a little bit in this one which would make him a player with one of the higher ceilings relative to salary on the slate.
• Coming out of the bye it wouldn’t be shocking for Woody Marks to have a bigger role, but the team obviously respects veteran Nick Chubb. The Texans offense looked great against the Ravens backups the last time we saw them play, but are likely to have a much tougher time without Kirk and playing in a hostile road environment.

WR Thoughts::

• Amon-Ra St. Brown should be extremely busy in this one and is the primary read on most passing plays for Detroit, while this is a spot with the state of their secondary where they are likely to enter the game and continue through it knowing they need to score a ton of points.
• Jameson Williams was used on a more diverse route tree last week and I expect his role to grow again this week, with the potential to break the slate. Let’s not forget that the second half of last season is when Williams really went bonkers.
• Mike Evans is in an absolute smash spot to return to. Sterling Shepard, Tez Johnson, and Kameron Johnson are all likely to have a role if Emeka Egbuka is unable to play. Hard to imagine at least one Bucs WR/TE isn’t in winning lineups with the state of the DET secondary.
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba is too integral to the Seattle offense to have a truly “bad” game, in my opinion, but his salary around $8k makes it so a “good” game from him keeps you from winning. He is likely to be 60% owned, I don’t expect his team to be pushed, the matchup is really tough. All of that is enough for me to not play him. DFS is hard and you have to make choices. I’m just not playing JSN this week and living with whatever happens.
• If not playing JSN, taking shots on Cooper Kupp, Tory Horton, or AJ Barner is reasonable. I prefer them in the reverse order of that listed, but also expect Kupp to post a bigger game at some point this season so if it happened here I wouldn’t be totally shocked. Just in general with the Seattle passing game I expect JSN to have decent production but disappoint for his salary and ownership, the backfield to soak up a decent amount of the offense, and then these “other” guys to split whatever is left…..and if betting on that last chunk I would prefer to do it in the cheapest and lowest owned way possible.
• This Texans offense looked broken to start the season without Christian Kirk on the field and playing against good defenses, which is the situation they find themselves in this week. I am not looking to bet on Nico Collins in this spot, but he is talented enough to overcome that. Really the nature of the slate is tough to justify playing him at such high ownership because of how many points and yards are likely to come from the other game.
• After Collins, the “next” WR appears to be veteran Xavier Hutchinson who scored two touchdowns in their last game against the Ravens. However, I kind of like playing one of the Texans rookie WRs (Jayden Higgins or Jaylin Noel) in this spot in large field tournaments. 

TE Thoughts::

• The Lions have been a concentrated offense this season and last week we saw the two running backs, ARSB, Jameson, and Sam LaPorta as the only Lions to touch the ball. LaPorta is by far the best tight end option on the slate and it will be hard for me to make any rosters that don’t have at least one of him or Jameson Williams in it.
• AJ Barner has shown an ability to make big plays and has had plays designed for him near the goal line. Among the “non-LaPorta” tight ends, Barner has four games of double digit PPR points while Schultz and Otton have combined for three. Despite that, he is likely to be the fourth highest owned TE on the slate. My main build is looking like it will be a Goff triple with Barner in the Flex.
• Cade Otton didn’t get in the end zone last week with all the Bucs WR injuries. This week, considering how beat up the Lions secondary is and at least one of Tampa’s star WRs being back, it is a little harder to see him posting a big stat line. That being said, he will play the whole game and it should be high scoring.
• Dalton Schultz may see an uptick in targets as the safety valve with Christian Kirk out. Hard to count on a touchdown, so the ceiling seems kind of low here, but should be good for a few catches and 40 to 60 yards.

Strategy and Game Theory::

• Relative to last week’s slate, salary is much tighter for this week’s two game slate and there is a clear ideal way to play these two games with TB/DET appearing so much more appealing than HOU/SEA.
• If you select the most expensive active player for each of your nine roster spots on DraftKings, you will be $7,600 over the salary cap. 
• Each team has one elite WR (assuming Evans plays and Egbuka does not). The quickest way to come down from that salary listed above is to pick the one you like the least and drop down to a cheap alternative from the same team. You can then toy around with a couple other positions to get below the salary cap, but it isn’t as simple or straightforward as last week’s two-game slate was. 
• The early game is going to be by far the more popular spot to build around and in these instances many people think the way to handle it is to flip that and build around the other game. For this particular slate, I don’t really have an interest in doing that. 
• Most people will probably build in a very specific way, with 5 or 6 players from TB/DET and then one player from each of HOU and SEA or two from one of them and one from the other…..and using HOU or SEA defense. That might work out, but I think that betting on one of the offenses from the late game playing very poorly (or both) is a solid strategy. So maybe we have 6 or 7 players from the early game, but then one or two players from SEA plus their defense and fade HOU completely (or vice versa). The natural tendency on these slates is always to “cover your bases” and most people will have one player from every team on their rosters. Not doing so might be the most +EV thing you can do.
• The defenses here are interesting, as probably 60 to 80% of the rosters will have either SEA or HOU defense. I think the Seahawks defense might destroy the Texans terrible offensive line, but there is also a chance the game is low scoring and boring while with all the pass attempts in the early game there could be a pick-6 or something that really sets things off. Something like Bucs Defense on Goff rosters or Lions Defense on Baker rosters could have a lot of value here.

Positional Rankings::

(My favorite plays on the slate at each position when considering all elements, including salary/ownership)

RB::

1. Rachaad White
2. Jahmyr Gibbs
3. Kenneth Walker III
4. David Montgomery
5. Woody Marks
6. Nick Chubb

WR::

1. Amon-Ra St. Brown
2. Mike Evans
3. Jameson Williams
4. Jaxon Smith-Njigba
5. Nico Collins
6. Emeka Egbuka (if active)
7. Cooper Kupp
8. Tez Johnson
9. Jayden Higgins
10. Sterling Shepard

TE::

1. Sam LaPorta
2. AJ Barner
3. Cade Otton
4. Dalton Schultz

SHORT SLATE-ONLY OPTIONS::

• Here are a few cheaper options that I’ll be considering on this slate that can help you make a unique lineup, but you wouldn’t be playing on the Main Slate::
  • Sean Tucker
  • Elijah Arroyo
  • Tory Horton
  • Jaylin Noel

Good luck and see you in the lobby at 7:00 pm ET Monday!!

-Mike (MJohnson86)

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 7 closes out with the Texans heading to Seattle for a 41.5 total game with the Seahawks favored by 3. Both teams boast strong defenses (with Houston’s in particular playing at an elite level, albeit against modest competition – allowing 12.2 points per game this season). Houston’s offense has been shaky, while Seattle has somewhat quietly been a top-5 team in points scored per game. It should be an interesting one.

SEATTLE

On the Seattle side, Zach Charbonnet has outsnapped Ken Walker in the last two games, making that four of five healthy games in which he’s done so. He has 12 and 13 touches in those games to Walker’s 11 in each game. Right now, this backfield looks like a timeshare with Charbonnet in front, but it’s tough to feel confident in either back right now. What really stands out, though, is that despite playing in fewer games, Charbonnet has 7 carries inside the 5-yard line to Walker’s 3. It’s an odd situation because Walker is the more explosive back, by a fairly wide margin, while Charbs is more of a consistent plodder. But Seattle seems to like that, I guess. Walker has upside if he breaks a long run, but at $1k more than Charbonnet with a smaller goal line role, Charbonnet looks like the overall stronger play. Both are viable in tournaments, but against Houston’s elite defense, a split backfield is a bit of a tough sell for me. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Seahawks are Jaxon Smith-Njigba all day, every day. JSN has a massive 36.4% target share, the highest in the NFL. He’s 2nd in the league with a 48.6% share of the team’s air yards. He has a very healthy 13-yard aDOT. He’s no longer a short distance guy who needs a ton of volume to find a ceiling. He’s even 2nd in the league in deep targets with 13. Dude is elite, and the role is insane. Houston’s a top 5 defense, but somebody has to find some points, and JSN is, overall, the best skill position play in the game. It’s not fooling anybody, and he’ll be very highly owned, but he’s a really tough fade. The way the Seahawks move him all around the formation makes him really tough to guard, and I’m fine just eating the chalk here. Behind him, things get thin fast due to JSN’s massive usage. Cooper Kupp holds down the WR2 role, and while he has a healthy 20.8% target share, his aDOT is just 6.4 yards, which has made it extremely difficult for him to find ceiling performances so far this season – he’s really only had one game you’d be happy with at his $6,800 price tag. Still, somebody has to be in optimal lineups, and Kupp is really the second best option of the Seahawks pass catchers, and his short-area route tree makes it tougher to guard him. Kupp is unexciting but viable. Tory Horton is holding down the WR3 role with very limited volume (but he does have 3 touchdowns on the season) – he’ll almost certainly need a touchdown, but he also has some big play ability. Volatile but reasonable. Jake Bobo can be used as a punt option.

At tight end, AJ Barner leads the way with Elijah Arroyo and Eric Saubert playing material snaps behind him. Barner has one massive game of 7 targets, but otherwise has 3 or fewer targets in every game. He’s uninspiring – I’d rather bet on Horton for ceiling over Barner, personally. Arroyo has actually been seeing very similar target volume to Barner, except for that one spike game, but he’s $2k cheaper and will be less owned. I think they’re more similar than most people think. Arroyo isn’t some smash play by any means, but I bet he’s going to be sub-5% owned, and if I’m building 150 lineups, I’d probably run like 10% of him. Saubert and WR4 Jake Bobo are thin punt options.

houston

The Deuce

Strategy Ideas and Things To Consider for Monday’s 2-game Slate:

Overview::

It is important to understand the big picture of these teams both in terms of their inner workings and their perceptions entering this week::

• Bucs – Tampa Bay has battled through a litany of injuries this season, but Baker Mayfield has just kept producing as the Bucs have scored 25+ points in four straight games. Now they are likely to get Mike Evans back on the field, with an outside chance for Emeka Egbuka to play through his hamstring injury. Whoever is on the field at receiver for the Bucs is likely to have success, as Detroit has the 5th ranked run defense in the league and will be without four of their top five defensive backs due to injuries and suspension. 
• Lions – Detroit returns home after a tough loss to the Chiefs last week. Jared Goff’s home/road splits have been massive during his time with the Lions and the Bucs are one of the bigger “pass funnel” teams in the league. We have seen this movie before with the Lions defense when they were decimated in the second half of last season and their games were all shootouts. For what it is worth, this week Dan Campbell said the team wants to split the running back work more evenly. The reality is this matchup suits Gibbs in the passing game far better than the between the tackles style of Montgomery.
• Texans – Houston emerges from their bye week with a 2-3 record and a grueling upcoming schedule. They will be without veteran WR Christian Kirk, which further emphasizes the role of Nico Collins while also bringing some value WRs into the mix in this spot. The team played Week 1 and 2 without Kirk as well, but Justin Watson played a lot of snaps those weeks and is now on injured reserve. This makes the secondary Texans receivers a spot that will likely have a big impact on the slate. Also, there are not great running back options on this slate and the Texans RBs are cheap. 
• Seahawks – Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been awesome this season, but this is easily his toughest matchup to date with the Texans pass defense that is ranked third in DVOA. Houston has been a lot easier to run the ball against than to pass it. Unfortunately the Seahawks running game has not been dependable this season and they split the work. Seattle will likely depend heavily on their defense giving them good field position to create points.

QB Thoughts::

• I am not really overthinking things here, as the salaries of Mayfield and Goff are higher than Stroud and Darnold, but their range of outcomes is so much different as well. Both TB and DET have pass funnel defenses and it feels fairly likely that at least one of the QBs there goes over 25 points, with the potential for both doing so or one of them getting to 30….while in the HOU/SEA game it feels like we’ll be somewhat lucky if either QB gets to 20. 

My guess on final ownership::

• Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff – 25 to 35%
• Sam Darnold and CJ Stroud – 15 to 22%

RB Thoughts::

• Jahmyr Gibbs and Rachaad White are the top running backs on the slate by a wide margin.
• David Montgomery’s coach wants to give him the ball more but this is a matchup where he is least likely to be efficient with those touches and Detroit seems likely to have to throw the ball a lot more. I think my favorite way to play him might be WITH Jared Goff as a bet on Detroit scoring five or six TDs.
• Kenneth Walker III has played better than Zach Charbonnet, but still splits the backfield with him. Very few rosters will have three RBs, while Gibbs and White will likely both be well north of 50% ownership, which means Walker will probably settle in the 25% range. Seattle has a bye next week and part of the reason they have been doing the committee is seemingly to preserve Walker’s health, so you could make a bet on them letting him off the leash a little bit in this one which would make him a player with one of the higher ceilings relative to salary on the slate.
• Coming out of the bye it wouldn’t be shocking for Woody Marks to have a bigger role, but the team obviously respects veteran Nick Chubb. The Texans offense looked great against the Ravens backups the last time we saw them play, but are likely to have a much tougher time without Kirk and playing in a hostile road environment.

WR Thoughts::

• Amon-Ra St. Brown should be extremely busy in this one and is the primary read on most passing plays for Detroit, while this is a spot with the state of their secondary where they are likely to enter the game and continue through it knowing they need to score a ton of points.
• Jameson Williams was used on a more diverse route tree last week and I expect his role to grow again this week, with the potential to break the slate. Let’s not forget that the second half of last season is when Williams really went bonkers.
• Mike Evans is in an absolute smash spot to return to. Sterling Shepard, Tez Johnson, and Kameron Johnson are all likely to have a role if Emeka Egbuka is unable to play. Hard to imagine at least one Bucs WR/TE isn’t in winning lineups with the state of the DET secondary.
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba is too integral to the Seattle offense to have a truly “bad” game, in my opinion, but his salary around $8k makes it so a “good” game from him keeps you from winning. He is likely to be 60% owned, I don’t expect his team to be pushed, the matchup is really tough. All of that is enough for me to not play him. DFS is hard and you have to make choices. I’m just not playing JSN this week and living with whatever happens.
• If not playing JSN, taking shots on Cooper Kupp, Tory Horton, or AJ Barner is reasonable. I prefer them in the reverse order of that listed, but also expect Kupp to post a bigger game at some point this season so if it happened here I wouldn’t be totally shocked. Just in general with the Seattle passing game I expect JSN to have decent production but disappoint for his salary and ownership, the backfield to soak up a decent amount of the offense, and then these “other” guys to split whatever is left…..and if betting on that last chunk I would prefer to do it in the cheapest and lowest owned way possible.
• This Texans offense looked broken to start the season without Christian Kirk on the field and playing against good defenses, which is the situation they find themselves in this week. I am not looking to bet on Nico Collins in this spot, but he is talented enough to overcome that. Really the nature of the slate is tough to justify playing him at such high ownership because of how many points and yards are likely to come from the other game.
• After Collins, the “next” WR appears to be veteran Xavier Hutchinson who scored two touchdowns in their last game against the Ravens. However, I kind of like playing one of the Texans rookie WRs (Jayden Higgins or Jaylin Noel) in this spot in large field tournaments. 

TE Thoughts::

• The Lions have been a concentrated offense this season and last week we saw the two running backs, ARSB, Jameson, and Sam LaPorta as the only Lions to touch the ball. LaPorta is by far the best tight end option on the slate and it will be hard for me to make any rosters that don’t have at least one of him or Jameson Williams in it.
• AJ Barner has shown an ability to make big plays and has had plays designed for him near the goal line. Among the “non-LaPorta” tight ends, Barner has four games of double digit PPR points while Schultz and Otton have combined for three. Despite that, he is likely to be the fourth highest owned TE on the slate. My main build is looking like it will be a Goff triple with Barner in the Flex.
• Cade Otton didn’t get in the end zone last week with all the Bucs WR injuries. This week, considering how beat up the Lions secondary is and at least one of Tampa’s star WRs being back, it is a little harder to see him posting a big stat line. That being said, he will play the whole game and it should be high scoring.
• Dalton Schultz may see an uptick in targets as the safety valve with Christian Kirk out. Hard to count on a touchdown, so the ceiling seems kind of low here, but should be good for a few catches and 40 to 60 yards.

Strategy and Game Theory::

• Relative to last week’s slate, salary is much tighter for this week’s two game slate and there is a clear ideal way to play these two games with TB/DET appearing so much more appealing than HOU/SEA.
• If you select the most expensive active player for each of your nine roster spots on DraftKings, you will be $7,600 over the salary cap. 
• Each team has one elite WR (assuming Evans plays and Egbuka does not). The quickest way to come down from that salary listed above is to pick the one you like the least and drop down to a cheap alternative from the same team. You can then toy around with a couple other positions to get below the salary cap, but it isn’t as simple or straightforward as last week’s two-game slate was. 
• The early game is going to be by far the more popular spot to build around and in these instances many people think the way to handle it is to flip that and build around the other game. For this particular slate, I don’t really have an interest in doing that. 
• Most people will probably build in a very specific way, with 5 or 6 players from TB/DET and then one player from each of HOU and SEA or two from one of them and one from the other…..and using HOU or SEA defense. That might work out, but I think that betting on one of the offenses from the late game playing very poorly (or both) is a solid strategy. So maybe we have 6 or 7 players from the early game, but then one or two players from SEA plus their defense and fade HOU completely (or vice versa). The natural tendency on these slates is always to “cover your bases” and most people will have one player from every team on their rosters. Not doing so might be the most +EV thing you can do.
• The defenses here are interesting, as probably 60 to 80% of the rosters will have either SEA or HOU defense. I think the Seahawks defense might destroy the Texans terrible offensive line, but there is also a chance the game is low scoring and boring while with all the pass attempts in the early game there could be a pick-6 or something that really sets things off. Something like Bucs Defense on Goff rosters or Lions Defense on Baker rosters could have a lot of value here.

Positional Rankings::

(My favorite plays on the slate at each position when considering all elements, including salary/ownership)

RB::

1. Rachaad White
2. Jahmyr Gibbs
3. Kenneth Walker III
4. David Montgomery
5. Woody Marks
6. Nick Chubb

WR::

1. Amon-Ra St. Brown
2. Mike Evans
3. Jameson Williams
4. Jaxon Smith-Njigba
5. Nico Collins
6. Emeka Egbuka (if active)
7. Cooper Kupp
8. Tez Johnson
9. Jayden Higgins
10. Sterling Shepard

TE::

1. Sam LaPorta
2. AJ Barner
3. Cade Otton
4. Dalton Schultz

SHORT SLATE-ONLY OPTIONS::

• Here are a few cheaper options that I’ll be considering on this slate that can help you make a unique lineup, but you wouldn’t be playing on the Main Slate::
  • Sean Tucker
  • Elijah Arroyo
  • Tory Horton
  • Jaylin Noel

Good luck and see you in the lobby at 7:00 pm ET Monday!!

-Mike (MJohnson86)