XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 7 kicks off with the Jags visiting the Saints for a 39.5 total game in which the Saints are favored by a point. There are some important questionable tags for this one, so I’ll just start by noting that I’m assuming Trevor Lawrence and Chris Olave will play, as they got in limited practices on Tuesday, while I believe Zay Jones (who did not practice on Tuesday) will miss another game. We also have Jamaal Williams, who was designated to return from injured reserve and got in a limited practice on Monday. With a short week and a lengthy absence, I’m guessing Williams will sit in this one and come back in Week 8. Finally, Saints tight end Juwan Johnson looks likely to miss another game as he has not yet returned to practice. As always, if we get news that tells us something different with sufficient time to publish an article update, I’ll do that, but if we don’t get it until Thursday afternoon, make sure you’re in the OWS Discord for any updates. 

New Orleans

We’ll start with the Saints, who have found some success this season leaning on an absolute elite defense while their offense has floundered. The Saints defense has allowed just 16 points per game this season (though to be fair they have not exactly faced a murderer’s row of offenses: TEN, CAR, GB, TB, NE, and HOU), while offensively they have scored . . . 16 points per game (plus an additional two defensive touchdowns). They are fifth in the league with only 278.3 opposing offensive yards allowed per game, but again, consider the matchups they’ve faced. The Jags, meanwhile, have allowed 345.7 opposing yards per game and 19.3 points while scoring 23.6 points per game themselves on offense. After a slow start with 24 combined points in Weeks 2 and 3, the Jags have put up: 23 against Atlanta, 25 on Buffalo, and 37 against the Colts. So, we have a matchup of a good offense against a good defense, and a bad offense against a bad defense, which makes this a really interesting game that could go a bunch of different ways. Let’s dig in.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

For the Saints, Alvin Kamara is in a bell cow role with Jamaal Williams on IR. He’s played 75%, 63%, and 80% of the snaps in his three games this season while seeing opportunity counts of 25, 25, and 27, including a whopping 25 total targets and scoring at least 17.4 DK points per game despite only finding the end zone once. Not shabby! Dude’s still good and New Orleans is really leaning on him hard right now. You don’t need me to tell you that he’s the best skill position option in this game (but I will for the sake of thoroughness). The matchup is solid, the role is absolutely elite, and the talent is solid. Behind Williams, Kendre Miller has seen opportunity counts of 2, 16, and 4, but note that the 16 came in a 34-0 blowout of the Patriots with most of that work coming in the second half. In a competitive game, single-digit opportunities are the much more likely outcome. You can play him as “RB2 in Showdown and hope he lucks into a touchdown,” but especially with Taysom Hill around to also take some rushing and red zone work, there just isn’t much to like here. Speaking of Taysom, he’s still handling some gadget work with at least one carry and one target in each game. He had eight targets last week out of nowhere but my best guess is that had more to do with an opponent specific game plan and that we should not count on that kind of volume as the norm. He’s always in play in tournaments, though at $6,200, he’s almost certainly going to need a touchdown to have even a shot of paying off. 

The passing game centers around Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Rashid Shaheed at wide receiver, backed up by Keith Kirkwood and Lynn Bowden. Olave has yet to have a really huge game this season but it’s certainly coming and the volume has been there with at least ten targets in four of six games (and five of six competitive games if you throw out the 34-0 beatdown of New England in which their defense won the game and the passing game didn’t have to do much at all). This is just the second really favorable passing game matchup that Olave has had all year, so while he’s been solid so far, I like the chances of him really busting out against a Jacksonville defense that is allowing the second most opposing passing yards per game. Michael Thomas mans the WR2 role, and at long last, he looks to be fully healthy. He’s seen at least six targets in every game this year, though they’re not deep targets (10.8 ADOT, 50th in the NFL) and he has very little ability to gain yardage after the catch (he’s not very fast, just 55 YAC on the season). At $7k, Thomas is either going to need a ton of PPR volume or to find the end zone. Shaheed is more of a boom/bust play as the Saints primary deep threat, but he’s immensely talented and we’ve already seen him “boom” twice with a 5/89/1 line against the Titans in Week 1, and a 2/85/1 line against the Texans last week (plus a kick return touchdown). He’s an extremely volatile play as he’s averaging just 4.5 targets per game, but at $5k, his ceiling is something you have to consider in tournaments. Kirkwood and Bowden play extremely limited snaps and are just punt options, with Kirkwood seeing more of the field in every game and thus being the preferred play of the two. Tight end is manned by Taysom, Foster Moreau, and the ancient Jimmy Graham. We’ve already talked about Hill, but Moreau is kind of interesting at just $3,200 – he saw just one target against the Patriots in the blowout, but then four last week against the Texans. He’s a reasonably capable pass catcher, and while this offense has a lot of mouths to feed, $3,200 is a very favorable price for a guy who should be on the field plenty and is more than just a blocker. He’s not an especially exciting play, but we’re always interested in viable options that are priced below the kickers. Graham is barely there with two targets on the year (though one of them went for a touchdown – the whole “backup tight end in Showdown” thing is still strong!). 

Jacksonville

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• This game features two teams in the top seven in yards allowed per game and two of the top nine in points allowed per game.
• Both teams are two of the bottom five offenses in pace of play.
• Lions RB David Montgomery has yet to practice this week and appears unlikely to go in Week 7 after suffering a nasty rib injury in Week 6.
• The Ravens are relatively healthy if you discount JK Dobbins’ season-ending injury from early in the year, with just LB Odafe Oweh and S Marcus Williams not practicing this week (as of Thursday).
• The Lions have shown a propensity to alter their offensive game plan and game management relative to what the opponent gives them, while the Ravens have remained stagnant in their offensive approach, really not altering a thing unless the opponent forces them to do so – these are two very different approaches in digging beyond the top-level stats.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

The Lions are now able to run the offense they have wanted to run for some time under head coach Dan Campbell, which starts with their defense. Their slow pace of play (30th-ranked 30.3 seconds per play) combined with a run-balanced approach and a defense that is now a legitimate top-five unit has allowed them to grind out games when required. That said, they are coming off a Week 6 win over the pass-funnel Buccaneers, where they proved they could win through the air when required as well, a game that marked their highest pass rate over expectation (PROE) value of the season on the backs of 44 pass attempts and just 22 team rush attempts. The Ravens pulled into first in net yards allowed per pass attempt after the Browns took on the 49ers this past week, holding opponents to just 4.0 yards per pass attempt this season. Strangely enough, they now present more of a run-funnel matchup than in previous seasons. David Montgomery’s likely absence this week dents that potential plan of attack a smidge, but we should expect the Lions to primarily take what their opposition gives them. Furthering that notion are the above-average man coverage rates from the Ravens, against which Josh Reynolds is actually the leading pass-catcher for the Lions with an 87.5 receiving grade (per PFF) and 0.67 fantasy points per route run against man (per PFF).

It’s difficult to say what to expect from a likeliest scenario from the Lions run game here, considering David Montgomery is likely to miss Week 7, Jahmyr Gibbs has yet to be trusted with a full workload and is coming off injury (limited in both sessions this week so far), and Craig Reynolds is coming off injury (limited in both sessions this week so far). The best guess here is a backfield tandem split between Reynolds and Gibbs, likely closely mirroring the team’s Week 3 split in snaps at a 60-30 rate. The volume expectation is more fragile for this backfield as a whole than we would otherwise expect from a run-balanced offense, considering their tendency to attack an opposition’s deficiencies paired with the fact that both Reynolds and Gibbs are largely unproven at the NFL level. Finally, the Ravens have allowed just one rushing score all season and have held opposing backfields to 4.0 yards per carry on the ground.

The pass offense is rounding into form after the return of Jameson Williams and the breakout of rookie tight end Sam LaPorta. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynolds, and LaPorta should be the only near-every-down pass-catchers on a weekly basis, with Kalif Raymond, Marvin Jones Jr (lolz), and Williams sharing the remaining snaps as things currently stand. We expect Williams to take over a more robust downfield role eventually, but it remains to be seen if or when that will occur. As mentioned above, none of these players have been truly elite against man coverage this season, with Reynolds leading the way on a per-route basis. Even so, the Ravens are still in zone coverage on 68 percent of their defensive snaps, meaning the elite traits of St. Brown and LaPorta against zone coverage can still translate to success in this spot. Nothing here leaps off the page, but the talent of some of these pieces can always win out in a difficult spot like this.

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Jimmy Garoppolo missed practice Wednesday with a back injury suffered in Week 6 and appears likely to miss against the Bears.
• Rookie fifth-round quarterback Aidan O’Connell drew the start in the only other game Garoppolo missed this season and appears the likely starter against the Bears.
• Raiders cornerback Nate Hobbs continues to miss practice and appears unlikely to go again in Week 7.
• Justin Fields suffered a thumb injury on his throwing hand that precludes him from firmly gripping the football – I would expect him to miss Week 7
• That leaves undrafted rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent in line to start for the Bears.
• Roschon Johnson did not practice Wednesday in the first session of the second week post-concussion – not a good sign.
• With Khalil Herbert on injured reserve and Travis Homer returning to a limited session, there are still a lot of moving pieces with the Chicago backfield.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

The Raiders have played with a slow pace (26th-ranked 29.3 seconds per play) and modest pass rates (17th-ranked pass rate over expectation and 32.7 pass attempts per game), most notably playing with the third highest rush rate over expectation in a Week 6 contest they controlled throughout against the Patriots, taking a 13-3 lead into the half. That’s an important consideration here, given the opponent, as the Bears should be starting undrafted rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent and should continue with injury concerns amongst the members of their backfield. Consider the Raiders a run-balanced offense in Week 7, likely to start fifth-round rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell after Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a back injury in Week 6. In other words, even though the matchup against the Bears clearly tilts expected volume to the air (fifth in yards allowed per carry and 17th in DVOA against the run but 31st in net yards allowed per pass and 30th in DVOA against the pass), we should expect Josh McDaniels to call a run-balanced game through muted efficiency.

Josh Jacobs maintains his status as one of the few remaining true workhorse backs in the league but has struggled mightily to start the season. His 2.9 true yards per carry ranks 63rd (lolz), his 3.9 yards per touch ranks 38th, he has just two breakaway runs on 107 carries (1.9 percent breakaway run rate), and his 15.9 percent juke rate ranks 37th. Even so, his robust role in this offense and elite pass game usage (his 35 targets are the most in the league at running back) have led to the second most expected fantasy points per game at 19.9, a full five points per game higher than his current average of 14.9. The matchup on the ground is not ideal against a Bears team ceding just 1.10 yards before contact per rush, which surprisingly ranks second in the league through six weeks. But again, the volume should be there for Jacobs in this spot. Ameer Abdullah should continue to serve as the primary change of pace back for an offense that has utilized 21-personnel at an above-average rate, albeit most of which comes through fullback Jakob Johnson’s ebb-and-flow role.

The Raiders’ pass offense is an interesting study. The team started the season feeding most of the volume through Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers but has since made a concerted effort to get rookie tight end Michael Mayer more heavily involved early in the game. Hunter Renfrow has fallen from grace and managed a season-low 10 percent snap rate in Week 6. Reports have surfaced that the team is looking to move the veteran slot man. And then we have the disgruntled Adams, who told reporters this week that his “benchmark is not wins and losses, it’s greatness.” Adams was outspoken this week about his low 20 percent first-read target rate over the previous two games, a span where he has seen just nine combined targets. A lot of that is likely most attributable to his opponents in those games actively scheming additional coverage to Adams, as his former team (Packers) and Bill Belichick effectively removed him from those games. That’s an interesting setup because the Bears have nobody on the roster that can contend with Adams, nor have they actively utilized an island scheme designed to remove an opposing player from any game this season. Add all that up, and we have an unquestioned first-ballot Hall of Fame wide receiver who has been outspoken about his recent role in the offense in a cake matchup through the air. The biggest problem is that Josh McDaniels has been stubborn in his offensive approach this season, but that could change in a flash if he attempts to quell the concerns of his alpha wide receiver.

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Deshaun Watson (shoulder) did not practice Wednesday after missing the previous three weeks, including two games and the team’s bye week (Week 5).
• Kareem Hunt (thigh) did not practice Wednesday after forcing his way into 12 carries and three targets in Week 6.
• All-World guard Joel Bitonio returned to a limited practice Wednesday.
• Finally, tight end Harrison Bryant(hip) did not practice for the Browns Wednesday.
• Wide receiver Alec Pierce (shoulder) did not practice Wednesday for the Colts.
• Tight end Kylen Granson was held out Wednesday with a concussion – not a good sign for the first practice of the second week post-concussion.
• The Cleveland defense should assert control over this game environment throughout, likely leading to a run-balanced approach on offense and a muted overall game environment.

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

The Browns are coming off a game where they held the 49ers to under 30 points for just the third time since Week 13 of the 2022 season, the week Brock Purdy took over as the starting quarterback. In fact, the 17 points scored by the 49ers in Week 6 were the second-fewest during that span, more than just the seven they scored in the Conference Championship game last year against the Eagles. Oh yeah, and they handed San Francisco their first loss of the season… with PJ Walker at quarterback. It is fair to say the identity of this team begins with its defense, a unit holding opponents to just 15.4 points per game (fifth), 3.5 yards per carry (fourth), 4.1 net yards per pass attempt (second), and just 200.4 yards per game (first, by a metric mile). Quarterback Deshaun Watson missed his second consecutive game in Week 6, which, when combined with the team’s bye week, marked the third consecutive week he was out with a shoulder injury. Fifth-round rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson started the first game in his absence, a 28-3 loss to the Ravens where he turned the ball over three times, took four sacks, and had an additional fumble that was recovered by the team. Practice squad quarterback PJ Walker started the second missed game by Watson, last week’s 19-17 win over the then-undefeated 49ers. He was immediately returned to the practice squad after the win but has two more call-ups remaining, meaning he very well could start again this week even though he is not currently on the active roster. Overall, the Browns play with modest pace (23rd-ranked 29.2 seconds per play) and low pass rates (23rd-ranked pass rate over expectation (PROE) and 14th-ranked 34.4 pass attempts per game; 35 pass attempts per game in Watson’s two absences).

The Colts present a relatively neutral matchup both on the ground and through the air, meaning the Browns should not be discouraged from running the offense they otherwise would like to here, which includes a run-balanced attack. Cleveland has run their offense primarily from 11-personnel this season, which has held the lead back to between 50 percent and 65 percent of the offensive snaps in most weeks. Since Nick Chubb’s season-ending knee injury in Week 2, that lead back has been Jerome Ford. Ford has averaged 15.67 running back opportunities per game during that time, including 11 targets over three games. Week 6 also marked the first game without Chubb where the backfield operated in a one-two tandem as opposed to the three-headed timeshare it had been the previous two games, which left Pierre Strong with just one offensive snap. That should keep Ford in the 50-65 percent snap rate range with a better-than-zero chance at 18-20 running back opportunities. The Colts have held opponents to 1.22 yards before contact, and the Browns have underperformed in most run-blocking metrics to this point in the season (1.09 yards before contact but solid 4.5 yards per carry), but the likely return of guard Joel Bitonio should not be underestimated for how it would influence this team’s ability to effectively run the ball. Keep an eye on Kareem Hunt’s status throughout the week, as it could provide additional opportunities for Ford should he ultimately be held out.

As mentioned above, the Browns have run their offense primarily through 11-personnel with about league-average 12-personnel rates. That has left Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, and Donovan Peoples-Jones with 80-90 percent snap rates in a standard week and tight end David Njoku not far behind in the 70-85 percent snap rate range. Gus Bradley’s prevent defense has blitzed at the lowest rate in the league and has played Cover-3 at the highest rate in the league this season, typically coming from a nickel base. In typical Cover-3 fashion, the Colts cede a high completion rate (67.91 percent) on a moderate defensive aDOT (7.8), which should tilt the majority of the pass volume towards Cooper, Moore, Njoku, and the running backs. Considering Peoples-Jones has just one reception on five targets over the previous two games with Watson, it’s safe to say we can safely avoid him in our player pools this week. Either way, expect the Browns to be forced to march the field while stringing together drives, primarily focused around the running backs and short-to-intermediate area passing to the flat against Bradley’s Cover-3-heavy defense.

How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• Bills RB Damien Harris (neck/concussion) is unlikely to play this week after a scary incident in Week 6 that required an ambulance to escort him from the field of play.
• Patriots TE Hunter Henry has not practiced this week (as of Thursday) with an ankle injury suffered in Week 6.
• In standard Bill Belichick fashion, the Patriots list 17 players as limited as of Thursday, with five additional players DNPs on both days and Rhamondre Stevenson removed from the injury report after a limited session Wednesday.
• The emphasis on 12-personnel with rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid hasn’t forced opponents into base and away from nickel at the rates the Bills would have expected to this point, making the mismatch over the middle of the field more muted than we would otherwise expect to see from a player like Kincaid.
• The Patriots are broken, broken on offense – 12.0 points per game through six weeks is #notgood.

How Buffalo will try to Win ::

Pull up the most recent game log from the Bills and you’ll see a video excerpt from Pat McAfee titled “McAfee confused by Bills’ offensive struggles.” That seems to be the consensus around the media – why are the Bills struggling!? Maybe it’s because their three nationally televised games were an opening weekend loss to the Jets in overtime, a loss to the Jaguars in London, and a 14-9 win over the hapless Giants on Sunday Night Football. Look, the Bills are third in the league in scoring at 28.8 points per game and won their other three games by an average margin of 30 points (against Las Vegas, Washington, and Miami). We’ve played six weeks, teams are still figuring out their end state. The Buffalo Bills are fine and will be fine – they’re just finding their way amidst the multitude of changes that a team goes through from year to year, just as every other team is right now. Oh yeah, and they also rank third in points allowed per game at just 14.8. Now, there are some legitimate changes going on with this offense, primarily centered around Josh Allen and the team’s attempts to prolong the career of one of the most physical quarterbacks in the league to this point in his career. Allen regularly hit double-digit carries earlier in his career and has a season-high of just six in 2023, which came in Week 1. All is fine, just slightly different, in Buffalo, fam.

The other major media talking point revolving around this Bills team is the increased utilization from veritable dinosaur Latavius Murray, or at least that’s what the industry would have you believe. The truth of the matter is that the veteran back has been the most efficient back on the roster – so yeah, feed the man his touches. Murray has created 10 percent more yards per touch than backfield mate James Cook, a metric designed to remove the effectiveness of the offensive line. At 6’2”, 223 pounds, he’s also better equipped to handle the gritty work in the red zone as compared to the 5’11”, 199-pound James Cook. Furthermore, his seven targets on 111 offensive snaps (6.3 percent) are not far off from the targets per snap rate of Cook, who has seen 18 targets on 219 snaps (8.2 percent). Whether or not the dead even split in snaps from Week 6 carries forward or the backfield reverts back to a 65-35 split in the absence of Damien Harris remains to be seen, but Murray has most certainly earned an increase in involvement. Harris appears set to miss this week, at minimum, after suffering what is being called a neck injury and concussion in a scary incident in Week 6.

Stefon Diggs is beyond the alpha he has been previously in his career in 2023, setting career highs in target market share (33.8 percent) and targets per game (11) through the first third of the season. His aDOT remains a non-elite 10.7, but his returns have been stellar with three of six games of 28.1 or more DK points and 22.1 or more DK points in five of six games. Enter a matchup with a Belichickian defense that aims to actively scheme against an opposition’s top option. Even so, there aren’t many players on this slate that can put up 30+ DK points, making Diggs completely worth consideration in a perceived difficult spot. That notion is furthered due to the continued injury concerns with the New England secondary. Jonathan Jones has yet to practice this week while Jack Jones, Jabrill Peppers, and Cody Davis have been limited both days of practice. The standard counter, for DFS purposes, for the Belichick defense has historically been to play the secondary option through the air against them, which thrusts Gabe Davis up the potential ladder after his streak of four consecutive games with a touchdown was broken in Week 6. He’s not going to be some volume magnet in this offense, but his big play ability and knack for the end zone keep him in consideration on a weekly basis. Finally, both Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid have been full participants in practice this week, which should shift the offense back to a 12-personnel base. The biggest problem with that has been its influence on opposing defenses has been less than optimal as it hasn’t forced opponents into base and away from nickel at the rates the Bills would have expected to this point, making the mismatch over the middle of the field more muted than we would otherwise expect to see from a player like Kincaid. That should also keep Trent Sherfield, Khalil Shakir, and Deonte Harty in the sub-30 percent snap rate range.

How New England Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• New York’s offensive line has been decimated by injuries and now will be without Shane Lemieux, who tore his bicep in Wednesday’s practice.
• Four other offensive linemen did no practice Wednesday – Evan Neal, Matt Peart, John Schmitz, and Andrew Thomas.
• QB Daniel Jones and RB Saquon Barkley both managed limited sessions Wednesday, most notably placing Daniel Jones in line to potentially make his return from a one game absence.
• That said, Jones was second in line in team throwing drills on both Wednesday and Thursday behind Tyrod Taylor, and he has yet to be cleared for contact.
• First-round rookie cornerback Emmanuel Forbes was benched in Week 6 but could find himself back in the starting lineup for the Commanders after Kendall Fuller missed practice Wednesday with a knee injury.

How washington Will Try To Win ::

Washington’s 28.9 seconds per play ranks 20^th in the league while their offensive game plans have more or less been fluid from game to game. On the top level, their third-ranked pass rate over expectation (PROE) hints at a game plan that involves airing it out from the beginning of the game. But this offense is honestly more prone to taking their play calling to the extremes based on the early game environment they find themselves in as opposed to simply coming out firing through the air from the jump. An inability to consistently sustain drives has led to the Commanders averaging just 62.0 offensive plays per game, leaving their pass volume, rush volume, and overall play volume highly dependent on game environment as opposed to them forcing the issue on offense themselves. Offensive line struggles have also contributed heavily to the wide range of outcomes we’ve seen from this team. They have been all over the map and highly inconsistent overall, narrowly beating the Cardinals in Week 1, erupting against the poor defense of the Broncos in Week 2, getting laughed off the field in a 37-3 loss to the Bills in Week 3, playing a good Eagles team to an overtime loss in Week 4, getting laughed off the field by the Bears (of all teams) in Week 5, and taking down a gritty Falcons team in Week 6. We’ve seen it all with this team through six weeks. Since this team has primarily played to their opponent to start the season, I would expect a more muted game plan against the reeling Giants that is likely to start with a balanced plan that morphs to the game environment as the game progresses.

Helping that likely design is a Giants defense allowing 1.76 yards before contact per carry this season, second worst in the league behind only the Chargers. Furthermore, the typically low red zone touchdown rates surrendered by Wink Martindale’s defense have ballooned to almost 62 percent through six weeks of the 2023 season. I don’t see anything to classify that shift outside of variance. As in, there’s nothing I see from a situational play calling perspective that would explain the increase in red zone touchdown rate allowed. Either way, the Commanders have been one of the most lethal offenses in the red zone with a touchdown rate to match the 62 percent allowed by the Giants, which should serve to allow the Commanders to remain run-balanced for deeper into the game. Similar to the overall tendencies exhibited by this offense through six weeks, the backfield split has been largely up to the game environment the Commanders find themselves in. And that’s particularly speaking to the distribution of opportunities and less to the actual snap rate share between lead back Brian Robinson and change of pace back Antonio Gibson, as each is playing fairly consistent snap rates. In games the Commanders are allowed to control on the ground, Brian Robinson has four of his five touchdowns (Cardinals, Broncos, Falcons) while he has just one touchdown against the Bills, Eagles, and Bears. Even while sharing the backfield with Robinson, Gibson has just 16 carries and 13 receptions through six games played, or just under five opportunities per game. He should remain off our radar for the time being.

The pass offense has quite honestly been maddening to this point in the season behind an offensive line allowing the fourth highest pressure rate in the league (behind just the Seahawks, Giants, and Patriots). Even through the ineffective play from the offensive line, Sam Howell has not been terrible in his first true stint as the starting quarterback in this offense. His 7.8 intended air yards per attempt (IAY/PA) ranks 15^th in the league, while attempting the fifth most passes with the eighth most air yards. Turnovers have been the primary concern with Howell, having thrown more interceptable passes (11) than touchdowns (nine) while also losing a fumble. When Howell is able to diagnose a defense and get rid of the football, he has been an above average quarterback – even when pressured (fourth best completion rate when under pressure, 11^th best accuracy rating when under pressure). That’s important against the Giants because of Wink Martindale’s elevated blitz rates and due to the sheer number of sacks Howell has taken this season. In other words, we could see a wide range of outcomes resulting from the elevated blitz rates from Martindale here; either they get home and start disrupting drives against a sack-prone quarterback, or Howell is able to get the ball out with a high degree of accuracy and chew up the second level from the Giants (and everything in between). The Commanders have run primarily from 11- and 12-personnel dependent on game flow this season, with Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Logan Thomas the near every-down pass-catchers and Curtis Samuel the slot man that also sees schemed usage. The Giants have been in man coverage at the fifth highest rate in the league this season, against which the leading receiver for the Commanders is actually Curtis Samuel (lolz) with 0.49 fantasy points per route run and a 70.9 receiving grade against man coverage this season (both lead the team). From a micro matchup perspective, McLaurin could return an elite fantasy score against Deonte Banks and Tre Hawkins after seeing double-digit targets twice in the previous three games, assuming Adoree’ Jackson misses with his neck injury. Jackson got in a limited session Wednesday but could miss Week 7 due to the nature of his injury.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• This is a weak game environment for DFS.
• The small total has been bet down early in the week.
• This game has a lot of real-life importance.
• The Buccaneers should come out throwing, but that doesn’t mean they will.
• The Falcons’ backfield work and TE work are timeshare scenarios.
• Drake London is severely mispriced for being a talented WR1.

How ATLANTA Will Try To Win ::

The 3-3 Falcons come into Week 7 off a disappointing 24-16 loss to the Commanders. Despite sporting a minus-21-point differential, the .500 Falcons are only a half-game back in what promises to be another year of ineptitude from the NFC South. No one is ever out of the NFC South (ok, maybe the 0-6 Panthers are out), but one of the other three teams isn’t going to need much better than a break-even record to win the division. The head-to-head winners of the Falcons // Bucs // Saints have a huge edge in a bad division, making each of these games highly important from a real-life football perspective. Arthur Smith has turned the Falcons into a team with one of the clearest identities in the league. They have the lowest Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) in the league, preferring to ride their strong O-line (5^th-ranked per PFF) by pounding Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier at the opposition. The Buccaneers have been above average against the run and pass, but spectacular against neither. The Falcons are a “do what we do” team anyway, and there isn’t anything in the matchup that would tilt them away from the ground game.

Although they love to run, the Falcons play at an above-average pace (11^th) and have used no-huddle at one of the top rates in the league. Those two statistics don’t gel with the ground-and-pound, control-the-clock Falcons. When looking a little deeper, the “all-run no-fun” Falcons look more game-flow-dependent than they are typically considered. The Falcons’ pass-attempt totals in their three wins have been 18 // 32 //37. In their three losses, those figures have been at 38 // 31 // 47. The 31-pass-attempt loss came against Jacksonville in a game where the Falcons only ran 53 plays. The Falcons want to run the ball, but they are much more willing to cut bait and throw than they were last season. They don’t seem to throw more based on matchup, only based on the scoreboard. Predicting a high pass-attempt game is predicting that the Falcons are losing. Expect a typical smash-mouth game plan for the Falcons, with the caveat that they will try and catch up through the air if they fall behind.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Pittsburgh enters Week 7 off their bye with a 3-2 record. They welcome back Diontae Johnson to their lineup and have to be hoping between his return and a week to assess things they can open up their offense.
• The Rams have questions in their backfield and an offensive line that could combine to cause issues for them against a tough Pittsburgh pass rush.
• Pittsburgh ranks 30th in the league in scoring in large part due to their league-worst touchdown conversion rate on red zone possessions.
• This game on the surface has a modest game total but upon further inspection projects to be one of the highest scoring games on the main slate.
• The “upside” of this game will depend primarily on the offensive line of the Rams and whether or not the Steelers offense has used their bye week to evolve.

How Pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

The Steelers offense has been disappointing, to say the least in 2023. After much fanfare and hype during the summer and training camp, Pittsburgh has failed to meet expectations and has looked like the same low-octane group that we saw last year. Who would have thought that those highlights in the preseason by the Steelers starting unit against backup defenses playing vanilla schemes wouldn’t have translated into regular season success? I digress. The Steelers have scored more than 15 offensive points exactly once in five games this season, which came in a Week 3 victory over the Raiders. They have only scored more than 10 offensive points twice in those five games. 

There are two factors that potentially show light at the end of the tunnel for this Steelers offense. First, part of their issues likely have to do with their schedule to date. Their five games have featured three games against the top 3 teams in pass defense DVOA – the 49ers, Ravens, and Browns. Considering the struggles the Steelers have had generating a push in the running game with their offensive line for some time now and the lack of burst lead running back Najee Harris provides, it would make sense that this team would struggle offensively against stout pass defenses. Likewise, Pittsburgh has been playing without one of their top playmakers, wide receiver Diontae Johnson, since he went down with a hamstring injury during their Week 1 loss to the 49ers. Johnson is a great route-runner and technician who is especially good in the short areas of the field. He is, by far, the best “separator” of the Steelers wide receivers. His presence is critical for this team as those short receptions may not look like much in the box score, but they relieve pressure on quarterback Kenny Pickett and put the Steelers in more advantageous down and distance situations. He helps them to convert in third down situations and also puts them in situations that are easier to convert – put simply, he extends drives and gives them more opportunities.

This week Pittsburgh faces a Rams defense that has had some good moments and not so good moments in the 2023 season. Los Angeles ranks sixth in PFF run defense grade and ninth in PFF pass rush grade, however, they rank 30th in PFF coverage grade. DVOA rankings have them 25th against the run and 22nd against the pass. The combination of those metrics tells me what I would have expected based on what I know about the team, that Aaron Donald and the Rams front can cause you problems if you let them, and they prey on weaker teams and those who are playing in disadvantaged, predictable situations. The secondary’s coverage is the biggest issue for the pass defense and is the reason for their low DVOA ranking, so protecting the quarterback will be important for Pittsburgh to exploit that weakness. That may be a tall task for the NFL’s 31st graded team in PFF pass blocking grades. There is no help on the way for the Steelers running game, which also ranks 31st in rushing offense DVOA, so the combination of an inefficient running game, pass protection concerns, and the return of Johnson as a short-area specialist all point to the Steelers going to a pass-heavy game plan that is focused primarily on getting the ball out quickly and finding holes in the Rams beatable secondary. The Rams play zone coverage at the sixth highest rate in the league so we should expect Johnson and his receiving counterparts to be peppered with quick hitters sitting down in zones as a method to move the ball.

How los Angeles Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike Johnson >>

• After a promising start to the 2023 season, Arizona has had a rough three game stretch where they have lost their last three games by an average of nearly 17 points.
• Seattle lost a close one in Cincinnati last week following their Week 5 bye and now sit at 3-2 as they play their first home game in nearly a month.
• Seattle’s offensive line is getting healthier and they appear to be moving towards a three wide receiver base set, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s role growing coming out of their Week 5 bye.
• Both teams rank top 10 in the league in “seconds per snap,” indicating potentially increased tempo for the game environment.
• Arizona’s backfield is currently a mess with three players involved.

How Arizona Will Try To Win ::

Arizona came blazing out of the gates, surprising the naysayers with competitive one-score losses the first two weeks of the season to the Commanders and Giants, and then following that up with an emphatic home win over the previously rolling Cowboys. Since then, however, they have hit more of a wall than a speed bump as they have lost their last three games by 19, 14, and 17 points to the 49ers, Bengals, and Rams respectively. Looking back at those first three weeks now, we can see how the Commanders and Giants have struggled this whole season and how inconsistent the Cowboys can be. With that in mind, the “Jekyll and Hyde” that we have seen from this Cardinals team appears to likely have as much (or more) to do with their opponents than their own level of play. Said another way, they are closer to the bottom-tier team we expected coming into the season than the “surprisingly competitive” team that they had spun the narrative into to start the year.

The Cardinals had Kyler Murray return to practice this week, but Josh Dobbs will still start at quarterback for at least another week or two. Dobbs, like Murray, presents a running threat that defenses must account for from the quarterback position and adds an extra dimension to the offense. He has at least 40 rushing yards in four of six games so far this season. At running back, the Cardinals played their first game without James Conner in Week 6 and had a three-headed committee featuring Keaontay Ingram, Emari Demarcado, and newly-signed Damien Williams. All of them averaged at least four yards per carry, but none stood out. The snap counts were: Demercado 33, Ingram 28, Williams 13. The opportunity (carries plus targets) counts were: Ingram 12, Williams 9, Demercado 3. The Cardinals do have the league’s eighth-ranked DVOA rushing offense but a lot of that has to do with the contributions from Dobbs. This week they face a Seattle run defense ranked first in the NFL in DVOA and yards per carry allowed, while ranking third in PFF run defense grade. 

Looking at those statistics for the Seahawks defense along with the uncertainty in the Cardinals backfield, it is hard to expect much offensive success on the ground for Arizona. That could be a problem for the Cardinals as they rank 31st in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE). The Cardinals have been conservative all year, and they will almost certainly approach this game that way to start, but the loss of Conner along with an imposing run defense does not bode well for early offensive success in this game. Be that as it may, Arizona’s personnel doesn’t really give it the luxury of trying to open things up against a struggling Seattle pass defense, at least not until they are forced to.

How Seattle Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• This game’s total is shockingly the second highest on the Week 7 main slate, as many of the higher-end teams are on bye or playing in primetime games.
• Denver’s defensive metrics look terrible for the season, but they are coming off a game in which they looked solid against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
• Green Bay has a 2-3 record and is coming off of its bye week hoping to be healthier and more explosive offensively.
• Rumors are swirling around the Broncos of a potential fire sale and full-scale rebuild.
• Green Bay has five consecutive very winnable games on its schedule starting with this week and needs this game to build momentum for a playoff run.
• These teams rank 29th and 32nd in the NFL in plays per game, respectively.

How GREEN BAY Will Try To Win ::

The Packers have a 2-3 record through five games and enter this week off their much-needed bye. They have battled injuries, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, and are looking to get back on track as they pursue a playoff berth in their first season without Aaron Rodgers. The Packers were trounced by the Lions in a Thursday night game in Week 4 and did the trouncing against the Bears in Week 1. Otherwise, they have played three very competitive games with a late comeback win over the Saints, a last-minute field goal loss to the Falcons, and a fourth-quarter loss to the Raiders. On the road in Denver, we can reasonably expect the Packers to not get blown out, but we also have to question whether they can separate from them on the road.

The Broncos rank dead last in PFF coverage grades and Jordan Love leads the NFL in average intended air yards per attempt (IAY/PA) at 9.8 yards. The Broncos secondary appeared to take a step forward in Week 6 when they held the Chiefs to 19 points in Arrowhead, but the Chiefs offense has actually been less imposing than usual this season and not particularly aggressive down the field. Christian Watson should finally be all systems go, and adding his explosiveness to this offense along with Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, and Luke Musgrave, should be a recipe for this Packers offense to get back on track. It would make sense for Green Bay to lean more toward the pass this week, especially if Aaron Jones is still not 100%. Jones has only played 18 snaps, all in Week 4, since pulling his hamstring in Week 1, and he’s still limited at practice so far this week, even coming out of the Packers’ bye. AJ Dillon has been one of the least impressive running backs in the league so far this year and the other Packers backs have not done anything with their opportunities.

Green Bay ranks 12th in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE), and that figure has come with Watson playing in only two games . We should expect that number to hold or ramp up coming out of the bye week, as the coaching staff will have had time to assess what is working and what isn’t and make adjustments. Green Bay ranks 27th in rushing offense DVOA and 26th in PFF run blocking grade. Meanwhile, the Packers rank 5th in the NFL in yards per pass attempt and 4th in PFF pass blocking grade. They did have some trouble with Maxx Crosby and the Raiders in Week 5, but this week, they face a Broncos team that ranks 31st in the NFL in pressure rate; therefore, we should expect Love to feel more comfortable in this game and be able to make some plays.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Kansas City has the opportunity to take full control of the AFC West and separate themselves with a victory this week.
• The Chargers have lost three games by a combined eight points, with the opposing team having their winning score come in the last 2:30 of regulation or overtime in every instance.
• The Chiefs have a significant rest advantage in this game, as they played last Thursday night, while the Chargers are playing on a short week after a home loss on Monday night against Dallas.
• Kansas City’s offense has not been as good as advertised this year, scoring at a much lower clip and moving the ball with less efficiency than we have seen in years past.
• Both offenses rank in the top 5 in the NFL in situation-neutral pass rate.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Chargers continue to be the Chargers, finding new and uninspiring ways to lose games in 2023. Through six weeks, the Chargers have already had their bye and have a 2-3 record, with all three losses happening at the end of games and being losses of three points or less. The Chargers offense has been solid most of the year, scoring 24 or more points in every game but one, but their defense has struggled and not allowed them to turn their points into wins. Star running back Austin Ekeler returned to the lineup following the team’s Week 5 bye and had a solid, but not spectacular, outing against the Cowboys on Monday night.

Los Angeles plays at a brisk pace, with the fourth fewest seconds per play in the league through five weeks, and ranks fifth in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE). Now that Ekeler has returned, it is possible that the Chargers will return to a more balanced offensive approach, especially since they are struggling to replace Mike Williams, who was lost for the season with a knee injury, in their receiving corps. Remember that in Week 1, the Chargers faced the Dolphins, and their rushing offense had a field day with Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley combining for over 200 rushing yards on 32 attempts. Given their success in that game, along with the Chiefs defense being stronger against the pass than they are against the run, it would not be shocking for offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to lean on his offensive line and running game more in this spot. The Chiefs rank in the top 6 in the NFL in pass defense DVOA and opponents yards per pass attempt while ranking worse than 20th in run defense DVOA, yards per carry allowed, and PFF run defense grade. There is also the added bonus of keeping Patrick Mahomes on the sideline for a larger portion of the game if they are able to keep the play clock moving and make their drives methodical marches down the field.

While running the ball more may help extend drives to keep Mahomes off the field, it would likely be hard for the Chiefs to find a lot of explosive pass plays downfield, even if they wanted to. Keenan Allen continues to be the alpha wide receiver in this offense, but the loss of Mike Williams and the slow development of rookie first-round pick Quentin Johnston have crippled their ability to challenge teams deep. The Chargers will work to utilize the short and intermediate passing game as well as their running game to control the clock and frustrate the Kansas City offense as it sits on the sideline. Additionally, the Chiefs are still a very good offense with an All-World QB, but they haven’t shown the usual consistent offensive explosiveness we have become accustomed to so far this season. With that in mind, the Chargers are likely to feel more comfortable with a ball-control approach early in this game than they would have in the past.

How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday Night Football is a game that main slate players probably wish was earlier in the day as the Dolphins visit the Eagles. We’ve got a 51.5 total game (the highest of the week) with a nice close spread as the Eagles are favored by 2.5 which suggests a classic shootout situation. We have two of the league’s best offenses (the Eagles are averaging 25.8 points per game, fifth in the NFL, while the Dolphins are at 37.2 (and a still-amazing 30.6 if you take away the 70 point game against Denver). We have two mediocre defenses (Miami has allowed 26 points per game which is 26th in the league, while Philly is right in the middle of the pack at 20.7 points per game). Everything lines up for a high-scoring affair here. Let’s try to find some money. 

Philadelphia

Alright, the Eagles. D’Andre Swift has secured the lead back role (sorry Lions fans) with opportunity counts of 31, 28, 18, 23, and 20 in his last five games, scoring no fewer than 16.8 DK points in that time. He also has 25 targets in that time . . . this is a big role. The Eagles always make me just slightly nervous in how they use their running backs based on past years, but they went out and acquired Swift, and apparently, we are seeing why. Swift’s price at just $8k is comical, given the volume he’s been seeing in a plus matchup against a Miami defense that has given up 114.7 yards per game to opposing rushing attacks (despite playing from ahead more often than not). In a game with a lot of premium plays, Swift’s price sticks out like a sore thumb. He’s an elite play in this one. Behind Swift we’ll see some Kenneth Gainwell, whose role has trickled off after a nice Week 1 – he’s the “RB2 in Showdown” but not a very strong one with exactly two targets per game and a handful of carries since Week 1. Of note is that Gainwell does have 13 red zone carries to 14 for Swift, giving him some vulture touchdown possibility. He’s in play as a value option who could find the end zone, and then RB3 Boston Scott has a very modest role and can be included in player pools as a pure punt option. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, we’ll see AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith play almost every snap at wide receiver, with Olamide Zaccheaus in the WR3 role with Quez Watkins on injured reserve and Britain Covey handling a tiny handful of snaps. We like the Eagles because they are extremely condensed here, running only three wide receivers on the vast majority of their offensive snaps. After what was looking like a breakout season for Smith as he and AJB shared a 1A/1B role last year, Smith has taken a bit of a backseat so far this season as AJB has 60 targets for a combined 42/672/2 line while Smith has just 45 targets for a 28/334/2 line. So far this year AJB is dominating not just in production but also in volume while seeing a 43.4% share of air yards versus 29.6% for Smith. In a single game, things could obviously flip, and their prices have separated to the point where Smith is now priced like a WR2 instead of a WR1B. In a matchup where we can expect the Eagles to have to push for the entirety of the game, both look like strong options, and we’ll get into the dynamics of pricing on this slate a bit later, as both teams have a lot of premium plays that people are going to have to figure out how to prioritize. For now, just know that these are two of them. Zaccheaus is in the Quez Watkins role from last season, playing a ton of snaps but not being very involved in the passing game with just seven targets on the season. At $1,400, he’s a zero floor, modest upside value play (he did catch a long touchdown in Week 2 and was optimal in that week’s Showdown as a result). 

At tight end, we have Dallas Goedert, who started the season slowly but has seen 7+ targets in 4/6 games, but his role this season has changed with just a 5.6 yard ADOT and 10.4% share of air yards. He’s getting a lot of short-area work that really dings his upside unless he catches a touchdown or happens to break a big one (he does have a healthy six red zone targets, tied for the team lead with AJB). TE2 Jack Stoll is primarily a blocker with three targets on the year, and Grant Calcaterra will see a couple of snaps but has yet to see a target. Finally, I will note the Eagles signed Julio Jones and he’s on their practice squad. It would surprise me to see Julio play a really meaningful role in his first week with the team as he just signed on October 17th, but he could certainly pick up the playbook quickly enough to see a few snaps, and when he’s healthy he still has some ability as we saw last season . . . yeesh. I don’t want to play 34 year old Julio Jones when he hasn’t even been on the team for a week (so I’m kind of hoping they just don’t elevate him from the practice squad), but if he’s active, on a slate with some tough value options we have to consider him.

Miami

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 7 closes out with the 49ers visiting the Vikings for a game with a 44 point total and San Francisco favored by 6.5 or 7 (depending on where you look). Fresh off of a rather shocking upset, the 49ers will be looking to get back on track against a Vikings team that on the whole has been successful on offense but struggled on defense and struggled to close out games. The 49ers are second in the league on offense with 30.7 points per game and first in the league on defense, allowing just 14.5 points per game . . . wow, that’s a big gap. Should be a fun one.

San Francisco

On the 49ers side, Christian McCaffrey is questionable with an oblique injury but is expected to play. I’m going to assume he’s in his normal role, but you could certainly make bets thinking he’s limited and that either Elijah Mitchell and/or Jordan Mason get more run as a result. But assuming he plays, there’s really not much to write about CMC. He’s awesome and his role is awesome – even against an elite Cleveland defense he scored 14.2 fantasy points last week in roughly a half. He’s scored at least 22.9 DK points in every full game he’s played that wasn’t a complete blowout (he took a back seat late in the 42-10 win against Dallas). I’m not sure what other clever things I can write about CMC that everyone doesn’t always know. He’s a badass, and he’s a major strategic decision point because he’s $12k and he’s going to be massively owned. Mitchell and Mason are both priced up at $5,600 and $5,800, respectively, so they aren’t very strong options unless you want to bet that CMC is limited or the game’s a blowout and they get a bunch of late run. Worth noting is that in Mitchell’s first game back last week, Mason played ahead of him, which could just be the 49ers being cautious with the oft-injured Mitchell, or it could be that they like what they’ve seen from Mason this season and want to give him the RB2 role. I don’t really know, but I would not play them together under any circumstances given their roles and prices.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

The 49ers passing game now gets super interesting because Deebo Samuel is out and we know that the biggest beneficiary of Samuel being out has historically been George Kittle. So, we’re going to start with tight end. In ten games without Deebo, Kittle has averaged 4.6 catches for 73.7 yards and 0.8 touchdowns . . . yeah, that’s really, really good. A lot of that data was prior to CMC joining the team (as well as with different quarterbacks), so it isn’t quite an apples-to-apples comparison, but at $7,200, Kittle sure looks enticing. He’s only averaging four targets a game so far this year, but he’s at 6.6 per game with no Deebo and something like 5-8 is a fair range of expected outcomes for him here. He’s an awesome play at his price. Backup tight ends Charlie Woerner and Ross Dwelley barely play and can be relegated to the MME punt pile. 

At wide receiver, we’ll see Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings, and then Ray-Ray McCloud, who was the primary beneficiary when Deebo left early last week. We’ll likely also see a bit of Ronnie Bell on the field as well. Aiyuk has really looked like the alpha receiver this year instead of Deebo, which validates everything we heard coming out of training camp, but historically his splits with and without Deebo have not shown nearly as much of a change as Kittle’s. At $10.8k, it’s hard for me to get excited about him, but I will admit to having some longstanding bias here. He’s a guy who I’m just so used to seeing in the 7-9k range in Showdowns, so that 10.8 is hard to stomach, but objectively he’s a strong play – he’s already averaging 17.7 DK points per game, and now Deebo’s out. I’m going to try and overcome my bias here and hope that other people see a 10.8k Aiyuk and think “eek, too expensive for him” and that his ownership is lower than it should be as a result (anything under 40% or so is a bargain). As for the other guys, it’s hard to get excited for the non-primary guys on the 49ers offense. Jennings is generally just a floor play and McCloud only saw two targets last week despite playing 71% of the snaps after Deebo left so there’s really nothing to make these guys stand out other than “they’re on the 49ers and Deebo’s missing.” McCloud out-snapped Jennings, as Jennings comes off the field in heavier sets while McCloud is the direct Deebo replacement on the perimeter, so I’ll lean his way based on more field time and a cheaper price, but they’re both thin. 

Minnesota