Game Overview ::
By papy324 >>
- This is a weak game environment for DFS.
- The small total has been bet down early in the week.
- This game has a lot of real-life importance.
- The Buccaneers should come out throwing, but that doesn’t mean they will.
- The Falcons’ backfield work and TE work are timeshare scenarios.
- Drake London is severely mispriced for being a talented WR1.
How ATLANTA Will Try To Win ::
The 3-3 Falcons come into Week 7 off a disappointing 24-16 loss to the Commanders. Despite sporting a minus-21-point differential, the .500 Falcons are only a half-game back in what promises to be another year of ineptitude from the NFC South. No one is ever out of the NFC South (ok, maybe the 0-6 Panthers are out), but one of the other three teams isn’t going to need much better than a break-even record to win the division. The head-to-head winners of the Falcons // Bucs // Saints have a huge edge in a bad division, making each of these games highly important from a real-life football perspective. Arthur Smith has turned the Falcons into a team with one of the clearest identities in the league. They have the lowest Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) in the league, preferring to ride their strong O-line (5th-ranked per PFF) by pounding Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier at the opposition. The Buccaneers have been above average against the run and pass, but spectacular against neither. The Falcons are a “do what we do” team anyway, and there isn’t anything in the matchup that would tilt them away from the ground game.
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Although they love to run, the Falcons play at an above-average pace (11th) and have used no-huddle at one of the top rates in the league. Those two statistics don’t gel with the ground-and-pound, control-the-clock Falcons. When looking a little deeper, the “all-run no-fun” Falcons look more game-flow-dependent than they are typically considered. The Falcons’ pass-attempt totals in their three wins have been 18 // 32 //37. In their three losses, those figures have been at 38 // 31 // 47. The 31-pass-attempt loss came against Jacksonville in a game where the Falcons only ran 53 plays. The Falcons want to run the ball, but they are much more willing to cut bait and throw than they were last season. They don’t seem to throw more based on matchup, only based on the scoreboard. Predicting a high pass-attempt game is predicting that the Falcons are losing. Expect a typical smash-mouth game plan for the Falcons, with the caveat that they will try and catch up through the air if they fall behind.