Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- This game’s total is shockingly the second highest on the Week 7 main slate, as many of the higher-end teams are on bye or playing in primetime games.
- Denver’s defensive metrics look terrible for the season, but they are coming off a game in which they looked solid against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
- Green Bay has a 2-3 record and is coming off of its bye week hoping to be healthier and more explosive offensively.
- Rumors are swirling around the Broncos of a potential fire sale and full-scale rebuild.
- Green Bay has five consecutive very winnable games on its schedule starting with this week and needs this game to build momentum for a playoff run.
- These teams rank 29th and 32nd in the NFL in plays per game, respectively.
How GREEN BAY Will Try To Win ::
The Packers have a 2-3 record through five games and enter this week off their much-needed bye. They have battled injuries, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, and are looking to get back on track as they pursue a playoff berth in their first season without Aaron Rodgers. The Packers were trounced by the Lions in a Thursday night game in Week 4 and did the trouncing against the Bears in Week 1. Otherwise, they have played three very competitive games with a late comeback win over the Saints, a last-minute field goal loss to the Falcons, and a fourth-quarter loss to the Raiders. On the road in Denver, we can reasonably expect the Packers to not get blown out, but we also have to question whether they can separate from them on the road.
The Broncos rank dead last in PFF coverage grades and Jordan Love leads the NFL in average intended air yards per attempt (IAY/PA) at 9.8 yards. The Broncos secondary appeared to take a step forward in Week 6 when they held the Chiefs to 19 points in Arrowhead, but the Chiefs offense has actually been less imposing than usual this season and not particularly aggressive down the field. Christian Watson should finally be all systems go, and adding his explosiveness to this offense along with Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, and Luke Musgrave, should be a recipe for this Packers offense to get back on track. It would make sense for Green Bay to lean more toward the pass this week, especially if Aaron Jones is still not 100%. Jones has only played 18 snaps, all in Week 4, since pulling his hamstring in Week 1, and he’s still limited at practice so far this week, even coming out of the Packers’ bye. AJ Dillon has been one of the least impressive running backs in the league so far this year and the other Packers backs have not done anything with their opportunities.
Green Bay ranks 12th in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE), and that figure has come with Watson playing in only two games . We should expect that number to hold or ramp up coming out of the bye week, as the coaching staff will have had time to assess what is working and what isn’t and make adjustments. Green Bay ranks 27th in rushing offense DVOA and 26th in PFF run blocking grade. Meanwhile, the Packers rank 5th in the NFL in yards per pass attempt and 4th in PFF pass blocking grade. They did have some trouble with Maxx Crosby and the Raiders in Week 5, but this week, they face a Broncos team that ranks 31st in the NFL in pressure rate; therefore, we should expect Love to feel more comfortable in this game and be able to make some plays.
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