Week 7 Matchups

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00:00 :: Cowboys // WFT
09:15 :: Bills // Jets
21:30 :: Panthers // Saints
30:36 :: Packers // Texans
42:21 :: Browns // Bengals
56:23 :: Lions // Falcons
67:22 :: Steelers // Titans
77:59 :: Bucs // Raiders
84:38 :: 49ers // Pats
94:40 :: Chiefs // Broncos
100:55 :: Jags // Chargers


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Week 6 Recap, 2020

With JM, Scott Barrett, and Graham Barfield


Kickoff Thursday, Oct 22nd 8:20pm Eastern

Giants (
19.75) at

Eagles (
24.75)

Over/Under 44.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Giants Run D
16th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
15th DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
27th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
30th DVOA/28th Yards per pass
Eagles Run D
13th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
17th DVOA/18th Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
21st DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
26th DVOA/29th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::

Week 7 starts off with a bit of an ugly game as the Giants visit the Eagles. The game total here is just 44 points with the Eagles favored currently favored by a field goal. On one hand, we have an underperforming Eagles team that has had shaky quarterback play and an injury-ravaged offense and on the other hand, we have a Giants team that is basically the same, though not quite so injury-ravaged.

On the Philly side, Miles Sanders is out, leaving the backfield to Boston Scott and Corey Clement. We saw this . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 25th 1:00pm Eastern

Cowboys (
21.75) at

WFT (
22.75)

Over/Under 44.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Cowboys Run D
28th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per carry
Washington Run O
20th DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Cowboys Pass D
18th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Washington Pass O
31st DVOA/24th Yards per pass
Washington Run D
14th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per carry
Cowboys Run O
22nd DVOA/13th Yards per carry
Washington Pass D
5th DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Cowboys Pass O
28th DVOA/7th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

The Cowboys are showing signs of being a bit slower-paced and a bit more run-leaning…which would make sense in this matchup as wellWashington has been balanced on offense, and that doesn’t project to change hereBig plays are going to need to click in order for this game environment to take offIncidentally, “big plays” are the best pieces to target in this game

How Dallas Will Try To Win ::

The Cowboys’ game against the Cardinals got out of hand quickly on Monday night, which gave us only a small sample size . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 25th 1:00pm Eastern

Bills (
28.25) at

Jets (
18.25)

Over/Under 46.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bills Run D
23rd DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
28th DVOA/25th Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
14th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
29th DVOA/32nd Yards per pass
Jets Run D
10th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
23rd DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
32nd DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
6th DVOA/4th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Possible key injuries on both sides which would open up some great floor/ceiling valueNot much guesswork from this game, with the Bills likely to control the flow throughout; volume likely to flow through the avenue of least resistance (passing game) for the Bills, with the Jets in standard catch up modeA couple Game Theory nuggets to think about from this game

How Buffalo Will Try To Win ::

Brian Daboll has always been known to tailor specific game plans to specific opponents, which made the first few weeks of the season somewhat confusing watching the Bills . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 25th 1:00pm Eastern

Panthers (
21.5) at

Saints (
28.5)

Over/Under 50.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Panthers Run D
25th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O
6th DVOA/8th Yards per carry
Panthers Pass D
24th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per pass
Saints Pass O
8th DVOA/14th Yards per pass
Saints Run D
1st DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Panthers Run O
8th DVOA/20th Yards per carry
Saints Pass D
6th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Panthers Pass O
10th DVOA/17th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

These teams are similar in the way they approach games...but New Orleans is better at most of the things they doThe Saints should be able to tilt toward the run, while the Panthers may eventually have to tilt toward the airThere is a clear way this game could (and likely will) play out, but it wouldn't take much from there for an interesting tributary to openThis game is no fantasy gold mine; but there are certainly pieces to think about

How New Orleans Will Try To Win ::

Each of these teams are . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 25th 1:00pm Eastern

Packers (
29.25) at

Texans (
26.25)

Over/Under 55.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Packers Run D
22nd DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O
32nd DVOA/31st Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
16th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per pass
Texans Pass O
11th DVOA/8th Yards per pass
Texans Run D
32nd DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
13th DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Texans Pass D
22nd DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
3rd DVOA/6th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

The Packers are going to really like this matchup...in a number of different waysThe Texans are not set up quite as well here, but they should be able to be a threat in this one throughoutIt's highly likely that the Packers score points in this one; and if the Texans are able to keep pace, we could have a great DFS game environment on our handsUnsurprisingly, there are a number of pieces to consider in this one

How Green Bay Will Try To Win ::

Green Bay ranks 32nd in pace of play . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 25th 1:00pm Eastern

Browns (
27) at

Bengals (
23.5)

Over/Under 50.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Browns Run D
18th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O
24th DVOA/22nd Yards per carry
Browns Pass D
20th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per pass
Bengals Pass O
24th DVOA/16th Yards per pass
Bengals Run D
21st DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O
7th DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D
29th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per pass
Browns Pass O
19th DVOA/30th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Highly concentrated offenses on both sides of the ball, with the Browns likely to lean run-heavy and the Bengals likely forced to the air more as the game moves on, after attempting to lean run-heavy for as long as the game remains competitiveVery clear tributary that could open things up in this game for an easy path to hit the over, including one that not many fantasy footballers will considerKeep an eye on the health of Wyatt Teller, PFF’s top-rated run-blocking guard on the season

How Cleveland Will Try . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 25th 1:00pm Eastern

Lions (
27) at

Falcons (
28)

Over/Under 55.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Lions Run D
27th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O
30th DVOA/23rd Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
23rd DVOA/25th Yards allowed per pass
Falcons Pass O
12th DVOA/2nd Yards per pass
Falcons Run D
7th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
16th DVOA/29th Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D
28th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
16th DVOA/15th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

It's always cute when I think I'll be able to tighten up the writeup in a game like this one; there's plenty to dig into hereThe Falcons should be able to score points against the Lions...The Lions should be able to score points against the Falcons...This gives us plenty to think about in terms of DFS

How Atlanta Will Try To Win ::

Last week, we explored the fact that the Falcons’ pass play rate had been dropping since its early-season spike vs Seattle, and this team has now . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 25th 1:00pm Eastern

Steelers (
27.0) at

Titans (
25.0)

Over/Under 52.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Steelers Run D
6th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
5th DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Steelers Pass D
2nd DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
2nd DVOA/23rd Yards per pass
Titans Run D
19th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per carry
Steelers Run O
29th DVOA/21st Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
25th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per pass
Steelers Pass O
15th DVOA/18th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

The Titans should be tilted a bit toward the air in this one; but if they can hold up against the Steelers' ferocious pass rush, they have a chance to still do damageThe Steelers set up well in this spot on offense, and should ultimately be in charge of this gameBecause of the teams involved, this game may go overlooked; but there are some clear pieces to consider

How Tennessee Will Try To Win ::

Pittsburgh at Tennessee feels like the sort of high-total game that will go entirely overlooked. This game carries an . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 25th 4:05pm Eastern

Bucs (
27.75) at

Raiders (
23.75)

Over/Under 51.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Buccaneers Run D
2nd DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O
12th DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D
1st DVOA/16th Yards allowed per pass
Raiders Pass O
7th DVOA/20th Yards per pass
Raiders Run D
26th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O
14th DVOA/26th Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D
19th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Buccaneers Pass O
9th DVOA/11th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

The Bucs should be able to move the ball in this spot, and they should be able to control this gameThis is the exact wrong type of matchup for the Raiders, so they'll have to get creative in how they piece drives togetherOne or two quality DFS scores could very easily emerge from this spot, but you have to take on plenty of guesswork to land those scores on your roster

How Tampa Bay Will Try To Win ::

The Buccaneers' offense enters this game against the Raiders ranked sixth in DVOA on the . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 25th 4:25pm Eastern

49ers (
20.75) at

Patriots (
23.75)

Over/Under 44.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
49ers Run D
8th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
2nd DVOA/4th Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
17th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
25th DVOA/27th Yards per pass
Patriots Run D
31st DVOA/21st Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
9th DVOA/17th Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
30th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
21st DVOA/13th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Slow-paced, disciplined, grind-it-out game with both teams likely vying for field positionI was originally drawn to Jerick McKinnon, but after digging into the matchup and circumstances surrounding the 49ers backfield, there are better cost-considered plays availableNot much in the way of expected fantasy goodness from this game

How San Francisco Will Try To Win ::

San Francisco employs non-traditional offensive alignments consisting of heavy 21-personnel usage (34%) and slot wide receiver usage (Brandon Aiyuk: 149 of 288 snaps graded at slot, Deebo Samuel: 92 of 142 snaps graded at . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 25th 4:25pm Eastern

Chiefs (
25.75) at

Broncos (
18.75)

Over/Under 44.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Chiefs Run D
30th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
26th DVOA/15th Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D
7th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
32nd DVOA/21st Yards per pass
Broncos Run D
17th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O
21st DVOA/16th Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
12th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Chiefs Pass O
1st DVOA/1st Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

Denver will try to win by keeping the ball on the ground and preventing big plays, but this is easier said than doneIn order for this game environment to take off, the Broncos will have to have a strong game on offense (which is not our likeliest scenario in this spot)This leaves us without too many DFS options here, though there are a few keys guys to consider

How Denver Will Try To Win ::

How will Denver try to win? That’s not really even a question, is it? The Chiefs’ defense ranks . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 25th 4:25pm Eastern

Jaguars (
20.75) at

Chargers (
28.75)

Over/Under 49.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Jaguars Run D
20th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O
24th DVOA/10th Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D
31st DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Chargers Pass O
15th DVOA/3rd Yards per pass
Chargers Run D
25th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O
19th DVOA/28th Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D
5th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per pass
Jaguars Pass O
23rd DVOA/22nd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Slow-paced, grind-it-out game featuring the Chargers’ prevent defense and run-oriented offense and a Jaguars defense that couldn’t prevent Mother Theresa from swearingVery little room for a tributary game flow to develop, making even MME plays from this game very thinHigh likelihood that this game plays to the underVery low cost-considered floor and ceiling combination from players in this game

How Jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

How Jacksonville will try to win and how Jacksonville has been forced to try and win have been two completely different stories up . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 25th 8:20pm Eastern

Hawks (
29.5) at

Cards (
26)

Over/Under 55.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Seahawks Run D
9th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Cardinals Run O
4th DVOA/2nd Yards per carry
Seahawks Pass D
26th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
Cardinals Pass O
13th DVOA/12th Yards per pass
Cardinals Run D
11th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Seahawks Run O
9th DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Cardinals Pass D
13th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per pass
Seahawks Pass O
4th DVOA/5th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

There is much to dig into here...

How Seattle Will Try To Win ::

Before we get into this game — a game whose expectations will be driven forward by Mythical Being Russell Wilson — I want to lay out something that’s worth seeing // thinking about. Here are two matchups we have this weekend:

Matchup 1 pairs the #1 offense (all numbers DVOA) with the #9 defense on one side of the ball, with the #12 offense taking on the #26 defense on the other side of the ball.

Matchup 2 pairs the #3 offense with . . .

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Kickoff Monday, Oct 26th 8:15pm Eastern

Bears (
18.75) at

Rams (
25.25)

Over/Under 44.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bears Run D
5th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Rams Run O
1st DVOA/9th Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
3rd DVOA/10th Yards allowed per pass
Rams Pass O
17th DVOA/9th Yards per pass
Rams Run D
26th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
31st DVOA/32nd Yards per carry
Rams Pass D
19th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
27th DVOA/25th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::

An exciting Week 7 closes out with the Bears visiting the Rams on Monday night. The game has a 44.5 total with the Rams favored by nearly a touchdown, as Vegas isn’t buying the Bears as a legit 5-1 team. Chicago has scored 128 points on the season, behind all but five other teams, but their defense has been fantastic and they’ve won a bunch of close ones. 

On the Chicago side, David Montgomery has the backfield all to himself with Tarik Cohen out for the year. Montgomery has played 85 . . .

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