Game Overview ::

• This is not a good spot for Carolina; but in order to win, they will need to put up points, and that’s what they’ll be looking to do
• This is a great spot for the Chargers, who had a lot of things going for them in Justin Herbert’s first start
• The Chargers should be playing with a lead here, while the Panthers will be hoping to keep the game close enough to steal a win at the end
• There is plenty to consider in this spot in DFS, though there are a number of factors that may make this more of an “isolate and attack” spot than the sort of spot I want to spread across my rosters

How Carolina will try to win ::

This is a brutal spot for the upstart Panthers, with their offensive centerpiece out of action for a cross-country game against a Chargers defense that has held the Bengals to 13 points and the Chiefs to 23. The Chargers have a middling run defense and an elite pass defense, while Carolina’s best weapons are now in the pass game. Joe Brady and Matt Rhule will know that the only way for the Panthers to win this game will be to score points (i.e., the Panthers’ defense is bad enough that the Chargers will find their way onto the scoreboard throughout this game, so the Panthers can’t just hope to shorten this game and wait for something to break their way Adam Gase style), so we should be looking for them to attack with Mike Davis and their three main pieces in the pass game (D.J. Moore // Curtis Samuel // Robby Anderson); but the Chargers are going to continue blitzing at the lowest rate in football, because they’re getting pressure on the quarterback at the fifth highest rate in football — and they are going to make it difficult for Carolina to sustain drives. When it’s all said and done, Carolina will ultimately be hoping something lucky breaks their way here, while doing what they can on offense to try to generate points.

How the Chargers will try to win ::

Justin Herbert got away with some mistakes on Sunday that should have been interceptions — but he also made some “Wow” throws, and he showed plenty of poise while sliding around in collapsing pockets and quickly progressing through his reads. His mobility puts added strain on a defense, and his weapons give him a lot to work with in this spot. In fact, watching this offense at the moment reminds me a bit of watching the Josh Allen Bills down the stretch of 2018, when it was like, “I wonder if most people realize how exciting this offense can be?” The Shane Steichen // Justin Herbert offense was not a training wheels offense. Steichen is featuring plenty of movement and misdirection to strain the defense pre-snap, while building in concepts that strain the defense both horizontally and vertically in-play. Last week, they provided plenty of easy gains for Herbert on running back and wide receiver screens, and they gave Herbert a number of opportunities to make plays downfield (including multiple times when he passed up a covered deep throw for a quick checkdown to the running back). There will be some growing pains for this offense (assuming Herbert continues starting — which will almost certainly be the case when it’s all said and done, regardless of what Anthony Lynn is currently saying), but there will also be some big games in soft matchups. This is a soft matchup.

Furthermore, the Chargers under Steichen are playing at the fourth fastest situation neutral pace in the league. This is highly un-Chargers-like, so I’m not fully ready to lock this in as a trend; but Herbert was regularly snapping the ball with double-digits left on the play clock, and nothing points to that changing this week. The Chargers aren’t going to look to just “shorten up this game and hopefully get out of here with a win.” They’re going to attack here, and they should have success in this matchup. The major concern is simply that an Anthony Lynn offense would typically be the type to slow down if the lead begins to grow — which could dampen the true ceiling here if the Panthers fail to keep pace.

Likeliest Game Flow ::

It’s likeliest that we see the Chargers climb out to a lead here and maintain that lead throughout — though it’s also worth noting that we tend to think in terms of extremes, when the reality rarely plays out as such. In other words: the Chargers should take a lead; but it’s not as if we should expect them to be up 28-3 at halftime and be killing out the clock all game from there. It’s likely we see the Panthers in the second half trying to hold in place (or regain) a one-score deficit in the hopes of something breaking their way at the end, which could leave the Chargers in the fourth quarter turning to a slightly more conservative game plan as they look to prevent collapse.

There isn’t really a tributary in which the Panthers put up a bunch of points with sustained drives and turn this into a shootout (the Chargers’ pass defense is just too good for that to happen — with seven men in coverage and the defensive line getting to the quarterback quickly), but a Herbert turnover that leads to points for the Panthers wouldn’t be a bad thing for the Chargers’ fantasy production, and it’s not outside the realm of possibility that the Panthers could put up 23 points and force the Chargers to aim for 30.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

I didn’t expect to have much interest in this game, and I expected to come in here and hammer it down as a trap. I know Anthony Lynn well enough to not see “soft matchup” and immediately think “smash spot.” But Herbert threw seven passes of 20+ yards last week; and perhaps even more importantly, he was 16 of 20 on his passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, as Steichen gave him open players on creative route combos, or screen plays, or checkdowns — all of which could lead to easy gains. This allowed the Chargers to keep the sticks moving; and along the way, they leaned run-heavy against the soft run defense of the Chiefs. This week, the Chargers are playing a Panthers team that allowed the most running back rushing yards in the NFL a season ago, and that has picked up where they left off with the sixth most RB rush yards and the most RB rush touchdowns allowed already (the Panthers have also given up the sixth most RB receiving yards as a bonus; in fact, in both rush yards and receiving yards allowed to running backs, the Panthers rank right next to the Chargers’ Week 2 opponent, the Chiefs; but where the Chiefs have allowed only one touchdown to running backs, the Panthers have allowed six).

I’m not penciling in Herbert for more than 30 pass attempts (anything over that will be a bonus), but with only five targets so far this year flowing outside the five main pieces for the Chargers, this still provides plenty of targets to work with in DFS.

>> Keenan Allen :: 8 targets // 10 targets

>> Mike Williams :: 9 targets // 4 targets

>> Hunter Henry :: 8 targets // 8 targets

>> Austin Ekeler :: 1 target // 4 targets

>> Joshua Kelley :: 0 targets // 2 targets

Henry is the player I like the most here, as the tight end position is always a tough place to find floor and ceiling. He’s gone for 73 and 83 yards, and the touchdowns will come.

Allen is a strong bet for eight or more looks once again, and his involvement in the screen game last week gives him some opportunities for a big game in spite of his typically shorter-area role (he also was used on multiple downfield looks last week).

Williams saw only four targets last week, but that was more a product of the Chiefs’ ability to take away downfield passing than any decision on the part of the Chargers to limit his usage. I would feel pretty comfortable scooping some of Ekeler’s Week 2 targets back over to Williams, as Ekeler (and Kelley) were hit on some dump-offs after Herbert didn’t like what he saw downfield. This week, in this matchup, it’s likelier that Williams will be given six or seven shots downfield.

Ekeler is becoming a tough sell at his elevated price tag, as he played 56.6% of the snaps last week to 51.8% for Kelley, while touching the ball 20 times to Kelley’s 25. Through two games, Ekeler has 40 touches and Kelley has 37, and Kelley should grab lower ownership at a lower price, making him the slightly sharper play — especially as he has six carries inside the 10 and three inside the five…to only one carry inside the 10 for Ekeler, and zero inside the five. (The “slightly” on the “sharper play” label is due to the disparity in pass game role, where Ekeler is running three times as many routes as Kelley. We want catches and touchdowns from running backs. Ekeler is the much better bet for catches. Kelley is the much better bet for touchdowns. Each player has a high ceiling, but each has a low floor :: Ekeler in a price-considered sense, and Kelley for the fact that he could have a nice day with 18 carries for 90 yards…and that would do very little for you in DFS without a touchdown or (on DK) a 100-yard bonus. This is a good spot for a touchdown or two from Kelley, and both guys can hit for big plays. But neither comes with a safe bottom to his range.)

I’m not quite sure yet how I’ll be playing all this myself. The split workload for the Chargers, plus the lack of locked-in pass game work for the preferred back (Kelley), plus the price tag on Keenan Allen, plus the boom/bust nature of Mike Williams, may all add up to make this a spot I “bet on with an isolated group of rosters on my Roster Block, while avoiding this game elsewhere on my Roster Block.” In other words: making strategic bets around this offense; but otherwise leaving this offense alone. I’ll definitely have some exposure here. I’ll have a slightly better feel by the Player Grid (and a much better feel by any Player Grid updates overnight on Saturday-to-Sunday) of what that exposure will look like.

On the other side of the ball: avoiding players against the Chargers has been highly profitable the last couple years. The risk of a dud against this defense is always relatively high, while the “hits” are rarely big enough to justify the risk. But if wanting to go here, the locked-in workloads on all three receivers can be targeted — with Moore having the best all-around role, Anderson benefitting from usage as a more intermediate receiver in this offense, and Samuel working much closer to the line of scrimmage this year than last year, but likely in line for a couple extra carries with Christian McCaffrey out. Mike Davis, of course, is a “bet on volume” play who should see around 18+ carries and three to five receptions. If betting heavily on the Chargers, it could work to bring back a piece or two from the Panthers. If wanting to test the fates against this Chargers defense, Carolina pieces could also be isolated as one-off plays.

Game Overview ::

• Arizona has a tremendous matchup against the pushover defense of the Lions; they will continue to focus on the short-area passing attack, and are also set up well to attack on the ground
• The Lions return Kenny Golladay to the field this week, and they will look to keep pace in this game by hoping to take away Kyler’s rushing upside and attacking downfield when they have the ball
• This game isn’t quite the slam dunk we had last week with Atlanta and Dallas; but most signs point to points piling up
• Due to a variety of factors, I’m not quite as high on players from this game as others may end up being; but there is certainly plenty to like, and there are at least a few players I’ll be eyeing this week

How Arizona will try to win ::

As with last year, Arizona has been focused on the short areas of the field when passing the ball. Through two weeks, Kyler Murray is 3 for 12 on passes that have traveled 15+ yards downfield, and 42 of his 52 completions have come within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. DeAndre Hopkins has an average depth of target of only 5.9 (shockingly low for a player of his caliber), and Larry Fitzgerald has turned 11 catches into only 84 yards (7.6 yards per catch; to put that in context, think of all the receivers we come across each week whose average depth of target alone is deeper than that). This isn’t to say that Arizona won’t attack downfield; but so far, their downfield looks have gone to Andy Isabella and Christian Kirk, who have only two and nine targets, respectively (an obnoxious setup for DFS: the guys with the valuable downfield roles are seeing the fewest targets, while the guys who are soaking up all the looks are working exclusively short-area so far).

On the ground, Arizona has a great matchup against a Lions defense that has allowed the second most running back rushing yards in the league. This is unsustainable, of course, but it’s kind of funny :: here’s a look at the yards allowed per carry by the Lions on different types of runs (per Sharp Football Stats) ::

The Cardinals will play fast (third in situation neutral pace), work the short areas of the field through the air, and mix in Kenyan Drake (so far: 16 carries and two targets || 20 carries and two targets) against a Lions defense that ranks 24th in DVOA against the pass and 32nd in DVOA against the run.

How Detroit will try to win ::

Arizona has looked fine so far on defense — but they have faced only the run + short-area attack of the 49ers and the Haskins-crippled attack of the Washington Football Team. This week, Arizona will take on Matthew Stafford, Marvin Jones, and a healthy Kenny Golladay. Stafford is averaging 9.1 intended air yards per attempt, and this number should only go up with Golladay back on the field.

When Arizona has the ball, the Lions will look to force the Cardinals to win through the air and/or on the ground away from Kyler (i.e., they’ll aim to make this Arizona offense more one-dimensional by cutting off paths to Kyler runs), and it is worth noting that Detroit has been one of the tougher teams for quarterbacks to run on over the last couple years. This could limit some of the explosiveness the Cardinals have (this will be the hope for the Lions, of course), while allowing Detroit to attack downfield with Golladay and Jones in the hopes of playing this game from in front.

Likeliest Game Flow ::

Neither of these defenses is great. The Cardinals have allowed 27+ points in 10 of their last 18 games, while the Lions have allowed 27+ in nine of 18. Furthermore, the Cardinals have an offense that is designed to maximize points, while the Lions have an offense designed to attack downfield.

When a high-total game comes with an offense that attacks primarily in the short areas (which is the case with this Arizona team), I’m always a bit wary, as this requires us to bet on consistency at a higher level than is necessarily comfortable (i.e., if Arizona is less likely to hit for big plays, they need to be really consistent from top to bottom). But against a Lions defense that looks like an absolute pushover, Arizona should be able to execute well enough to continue putting up points; and with Detroit likely to attack downfield in response, they should be able to stay within striking distance for much of this game.

As with the other high-total spot on this slate (Dallas // Seattle), this isn’t quite the slam dunk we had last week with the Cowboys and Falcons; but most paths in this game lead to scoring, and each offense has a narrow enough distribution of touches that there is plenty to look forward to in DFS.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

With Golladay set to make his season debut for the Lions, he’s the first player who will be drawing my eye in this game that should see the Cardinals scoring points, and should see the Lions throwing downfield in order to keep pace. Last season, Golladay finished below eight targets only once with Stafford, and the general tendency in the DFS community to “wait until we’ve seen a player” before rostering him should leave ownership lower than it should be here. Golladay’s downfield role and red zone dominance (13 targets inside the 10-yard-line last year; most in the NFL // six receiving touchdowns inside the 10-yard-line last year; tied for most in the NFL) give him a ton of upside in this spot.

The next player who stands out here is Kenyan Drake, who played 50/77 snaps last week (64.9% — right in line with his typical range), and who has a fantastic matchup in a spot where he should again be in line for 18 to 20 touches. Without many schemed targets in the pass game, and with Kyler robbing some rushing plays near the end zone, Drake is going to remain a bit boom/bust (making him better suited to tourneys than to cash); but his “boom” upside is high enough to make up for whatever risk exists on this play.

The next place I’m looking in this game is both quarterbacks. With Kyler’s price rising, I’m a bit cautious here, as the Lions — for all their talent deficiencies — have been one of the better teams in the league under Matt Patricia at slowing running quarterbacks (11th fewest QB rushing yards allowed last year; second fewest the year before). This makes sense, as Patricia is opponent-specific enough to design his game plan around slowing the rushing upside of a player like Kyler — though it should obviously be noted that Kyler has enough of a talent edge to pop off for long gains regardless. Arizona is, of course, a short-area passing attack, so you’re targeting Kyler rushes and/or big efficiency on downfield looks in order to maximize upside here; but the matchup and game environment are both good enough that Kyler should ultimately succeed in the box score one way or another. Stafford, of course, is a little less attractive with his low rushing ceiling; but after tracking on pace through the first eight games a year ago for the NFL lead in touchdown passes (and the second most passing yards) before getting injured, there is a lot to like here with the Cardinals’ dangerous offense on the other side of this game and Golladay back on the field.

The obvious next piece here is DeAndre Hopkins — whom I’ll continue avoiding, I imagine, as he carries a hefty price tag for a player seeing his work so close to the line of scrimmage (especially given that his ownership only accounts for the box score he produced in Week 1, rather than accounting for his role; i.e., if the field were being overly cautious here, I’d potentially jump on this spot for the low-owned upside; but with the field almost certain to be overweight on this play, I’ll lean toward the data and trust that Hopkins will fall shy of salary-based expectations far more often than not with his targets coming so short), but he is always in the upside discussion; and while you can also consider “exposing yourself to Hopkins’ upside by rostering Kyler naked,” Hopkins also makes for a natural stacking partner on Kyler-QB rosters.

Beyond these pieces on the Cardinals, we have the low-upside usage of Fitzgerald and the low-floor usage of Kirk. I would view both of these guys as “roster as part of blocks built around this game, and otherwise avoid” pieces. Same goes for Marvin Jones and T.J. Hockenson on the other side — each of whom can certainly hit for a big game, but each of whom works better as a hedge off heavy Golladay exposure than as an isolated piece. If going to one of these two in isolated fashion, Hockenson — against the tight-end-susceptible defense of the Cardinals — would be the preferred play.

Finally: the Lions’ backfield is off limits outside of just completely guessing. Five different running backs saw the field for this team last week. Repeat: five different running backs saw the field for this team last week!

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::

This week’s island Showdowns are exciting games, and Sunday sees the Packers visit the Saints in a game with a total of 52.5. The line opened at 51.5 with the Saints as 6.5 point favorites, but while the line has gone up, the Saints are down to three-point favorites; there has been a tremendous amount of movement toward the Packers here. This makes sense to me given how abysmal the Saints looked on Monday against the Raiders and how good the Packers have looked. Injuries will play a key part here, as at the time I’m writing this (Friday morning), both Michael Thomas and Davante Adams seem likely to miss this game. I’m going to write this assuming they both miss and will update if we get a surprise. After a very softly-priced Thursday night game, the pricing on this game is much tighter (as we’re becoming used to in Showdown play), meaning even if both Thomas and Adams miss the game we’ll need to find some value plays.

On the Packers side, Aaron Jones won people a lot of money last week with a massive 48.6 fantasy point performance; he was rolling even before Adams got hurt. 18 Carries, eight targets, 168 rushing yards, 68 receiving yards, and three touchdowns resulted in the highest score of the week. He’s a strong play and with Davante out he will be a focal point of the offense, but the Saints have a very strong run defense, having held Josh Jacobs to 88 yards on 27 carries last Monday. Jones’ pass game work boosts him here, as does his red zone usage (Aaron Jones is leading the NFL in red zone targets after two weeks – not carries, targets), but the matchup on the ground is tough and if he’s the second or third highest owned player on the slate there is merit to considering being underweight. This backfield is also still a timeshare; Jones will lead in touches, but he’s only played 54% and 48% of the snaps in the first two games. Jamaal Williams is still playing 40% of the snaps and should see both carries and targets and he’s second on the team in touches inside the 10-yard line and only $2,000. Tyler Ervin and AJ Dillon will be on the field enough to make them non-crazy MME dart throws. 

In the receiving game, after Davante left the game in Week 2, no new receiver stepped in; only three Packers wide receivers have seen any snaps through the first two weeks of the season. With a full week of practice, I would expect that to change, and my guess is that it’s Equanimeous St. Brown who sees a modest role, but I would temper expectations here. (UPDATE: I did not notice that St. Brown was actually put on IR earlier on 9/19 (thanks to hde0703 for pointing this out in Discord!), so he’s obviously not an MME dart here unless you’re cool taking a zero. As for the Packers’ next man up here, you’ll have to watch inactives. Malik Taylor is listed on the depth chart but did not see a snap last week according to the data I’m looking at, while Robert Foster was signed from Buffalo and could be an interesting punt play if he’s active; I don’t know why the Bills let him go, but that guy is legitimately good. We should get more clarity on this situation sometime on Sunday, but as of now Foster is not in the player pool, so news would have to come early enough for DK to add him.) When Davante left the game, the Packers simply ran more two-wide sets and that is likely what they will largely do here. That leaves Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling as the primary wideouts. I prefer MVS, whose aDot in the last two seasons has been one of the highest in the NFL, but both are viable plays here against a Saints secondary that has really struggled to begin the season. Both also appear to be priced as if Adams will play and represent strong sources of value. The Packers tight end situation is gaining clarity as Robert Tonyan has led the position in both snaps and targets through two weeks (that said, we are only talking about three total targets here), but at $2,200 he is a very reasonable play. Mercedes Lewis and Jace Sternberger have seen three total targets between them so far and are purely MME punt plays (and fairly weak ones at that). I’ll rank the Packers receivers as MVS, Lazard, Tonyan; when added to Jones, Williams, and Rodgers himself only really gives six Packers I am that interested in outside of some modest MME exposure to the backup guys. 

On the New Orleans side, Alvin Kamara absolutely smashed on Monday against the Raiders, as we all expected him to do with Thomas missing the game; he led the team in touches, targets, touchdowns, receiving yardage, rushing yardage. We can expect him to be the focus of the offense in this one as well and I expect he will be the highest owned captain play, deservedly so. There isn’t much else to write about Kamara, he’s a fantastic play and he’ll be highly owned; but there are always game theory cases for fading highly owned guys, but I believe he’s the strongest on-paper play on the slate. Behind Kamara, Latavius Murray was game scripted out of the Raiders game with the Saints rapidly falling behind and only saw three carries after having 15 in Week 1. If you believe the Saints play with a lead in this one, Murray is a strong play at $2,800, but there is definitely a usage risk if the Packers get out in front. Murray is second in the team in opportunities inside the 10-yard line with four and belongs in “Saints win” builds, but I will be using rules to minimize or eliminate my exposure to him in builds that predict a Packers win. 

I’m pretty proud of my call of Tre’Quan Smith as the WR1 instead of Emmanuel Sanders against the Raiders.  Smith both out-snapped and out targeted Sanders against Las Vegas and is also significantly more expensive in this one. We did see Sanders play very close to a full-time role at 78% of the snaps, up from 49% in Week 1, which tells me he has now been more integrated into the offense and is ready to go. Smith ran more routes out of the slot than Sanders, which is the best matchup against the Packers, though the pricing has flip-flopped and Smith is also now significantly more expensive. Return specialist Deonte Harris was also thrust into action, playing 52% of the snaps and seeing five targets, and he is very much in play at $1,600. There’s a lot of volatility in playing a Saints receiver beyond the very top guys, but Harris looks to me like one of the best sub-kicker value plays on the slate. Marquez Calladay and Bennie Fowler are your Saints dart throws this week, both will play a modest percentage of the snaps and we know how the Saints like to spread things around and get tricky, especially in the red zone. Jared Cook failed last week while not connecting on a couple of deep targets that could have resulted in a very different box score. His price may well cause people to overlook him here, but he is one of the few Saints receivers who have a strong connection with Drew Brees. He is leading all tight ends in market share of targets, along with a positive matchup in a game in which the Saints’ perimeter receivers are likely to struggle. Backup tight ends Josh Hill and Adam Trautman join the fairly large “MME dart” pool that we have in this game. My ranking of the Saints’ receivers, price considered is Cook, Smith, Sanders, Harris with Cook out in front by a fairly significant margin, and the other three clustered pretty tightly. Oh, and Taysom Hill, one of the banes of my Showdown existence, is around as well and will play 20% or so of the snaps with a disproportionate influence in the red zone. Ugh.

It’s also worth thinking about the overall passing attack here with Drew Brees looking, frankly, not very good in his first two games. Brees has only completed 64% of his passes so far, which includes struggling against the Raiders not-very-good pass defense; the Packers pass D is much better. I’m not one to generally bet against a Hall of Fame quarterback, but one thing we can clearly tell is that Brees has been struggling with making accurate deep throws. His short-area accuracy still seems to be there, which favors Kamara, but the lack of deep passing accuracy limits the Saints ability to stretch the opposing defense and create more space. Aaron Rodgers is the clearly superior on-paper QB play in this one and the Packers passing attack is also more condensed. 

Based on the Vegas line, the most likely way this game plays out is a close, high-scoring affair, with both teams able to drive and score effectively. The key pieces to me are Kamara, Jones, Rodgers, Cook, and MVS, with Brees and the rest of the plays discussed to mix in at lower exposures. I say “based on the Vegas line” because there are other ways we can see this play out…

OTHER WAYS THIS GAME COULD PLAY OUT:

• I’m not a line bettor, but if I was, I would bet on the Packers to win this game outright (and I imagine the early Packers moneyline when the Saints opened at -6.5 was pretty nice). They’ve been playing better as a team, they are more equipped to deal with the lack of their top receiver, they have the better QB, and their defense has been stronger. Drew Brees has looked….I don’t want to say bad, because he’s still an NFL-caliber QB and I’m sure he still has some big games left in his future, but he hasn’t looked like Drew Brees. Maybe that turns around, but I’m on the Packers here. That would mean more work for Jones and Williams, and it would make all of the non-Kamara Saints less attractive as we saw New Orleans just focus entirely on Kamara when they were way behind against the Raiders. This scenario also takes Murray almost entirely out of consideration. 
• Maybe the game goes under by a significant margin. Whenever two high-powered offenses meet in a Showdown slate, we know that the majority of our opponents’ lineups will be built around the idea of a shootout, giving us some major leverage if we want to “bet the under” in our lineup construction. This isn’t the likeliest way that the game goes, but it’s more likely than the field will realize. If this game disappoints and lands in the 40-45 point range, it’s likely that only one QB is in the optimal lineup, and possibly neither of them make it given the pricing on this slate. In games that go way under, QBs are the ones that suffer the most, and we want to look for guys who can “get there” purely through receptions and yardage; that means Kamara, Jones, Cook, Smith, Sanders, MVS, and Lazard, with the kickers also being more attractive. Defenses in shootouts and bad matchups are also always under-owned, but this is the highest variance position in DFS, so I always want to be overweight on defenses when they are “bad” plays on paper (just look at what the Dolphins D did this Thursday). 

The pricing in this one is tricky for cash games, as there’s no way to fit all of the QBs and RB1s without punting at captain, which I generally prefer to avoid (you can’t even do it with a kicker captain, sadly). Kamara is the play I feel safest with, followed by Rodgers, then Brees, then Jones (factoring price into these rankings). The best value plays that I’d feel good with in cash are the kickers, Williams, Harris, and Tonyan. 

In tournaments, my favorite overall captain is, to no one’s surprise, Alvin Kamara. His usage is going to be massive here, and while Jones is also a strong play with Adams out, we can feel more confident in Kamara’s volume. I also want captain exposure to MVS, Jones, Cook, Trequan, and maybe a bit of Sanders for the value. 

SOME GROUPS TO CONSIDER:

• At most 1 kicker and at most 1 defense, as always
• Pair captain receivers with their QBs (or consider boosting the QB if using a captain receiver if you don’t want 100% exposure to this pairing – discussed in further detail in the 2020 update to my Advanced Showdowns course)
• Pair captain QBs with at least 2 receivers
• If captain Aaron Jones, negatively boost Jamaal Williams and the opposing DST and kicker
• If captain Alvin Kamara, negatively boost the opposing DST and kicker
• Both teams have a lot of ancillary MME dudes; at most 1 of all of these guys (Dillon, Ervin, Montgomery, Callaway, Fowler, St. Brown, Sternberger, Lewis, Trautman, Hill)
• At most 2 of Kamara, Brees, and Taysom Hill unless building a full Saints onslaught (If Taysom hits, he’s vulturing TD equity from Brees and/or Kamara) 

Want More Xandamere?

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XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::

Monday Night Football should be a fantastic game as the Chiefs visit the Ravens in a fairly likely preview of a playoff meeting. The game total has been bet up to 54.5 with the Ravens favored by 3.5, giving us a juicy game environment. The problem, at least to me, is that the Ravens are my least favorite team in Showdown. They rotate players around so much and limit passing volume (Lamar rarely gets above 30 attempts) that you have to bet on efficiency and not volume, which is always uncomfortable for cash games. For tournaments though, there are a lot of fun routes to explore. 

We’ll start with the Chiefs because they’re the easier team to figure out. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has taken over as the clear lead back with 25 carries and two targets in the opening night pasting of the Texans. He followed up Week 1 with 10 carries and eight targets (!!) in last week’s close, low-scoring game against LAC. The targets are obviously encouraging and show that CEH is the bellcow back in this offense. The matchup is a challenge both as a road underdog and against a Baltimore defense that shuts down opposing run games, but the price is just $7,800, which means CEH is the cheapest of the “core” top play guys (the QBs, Kelce, Hill, Andrews, and Brown). Based on price and workload, CEH is a guy I want to be overweight on. Behind him, Darrel Williams practiced on Friday so he probably plays, Darwin Thompson might mix in a bit, but you’re drawing thin in the Chiefs backfield behind CEH.

The Chiefs pass game, as always, centers on Tyreke Hill and Travis Kelce. As Hill draws the tougher matchup against a Baltimore defense that is strong against perimeter receivers (and speed receivers), Kelce is my preferred play here based on volume and matchup at a similar price. Tyreke brings just as high of a ceiling and probably comes at lower ownership as well. Generally, in tournaments, I try to have about equal exposure to both, knowing that the field will generally overweight the “stronger” play at a high-variance position. Behind these two, Sammy Watkins is in the concussion protocol and seems more likely than not to miss the game. If he plays, he’s a so-so play as a not-very-good player in a difficult matchup as the clear third target on the team. If he misses, Mecole Hardman should, at long last, see a much higher complement of snaps. The matchup is still tough, but with Kelce and Hill drawing most of the attention, his speed gives him massive upside (but expect him to be extremely popular). Demarcus Robinson is on my shit list after dropping two TDs in Week 1, when catching either one of them would have resulted in a six-figure score for me; but in Showdown we cannot ignore a receiver on a good passing offense who is on the field as much as he is and is priced at just $3,000. I’ll probably play some of him and hope for karma to come my way. Behind these guys, the Chiefs are one of the tighter offenses in the league. If Watkins misses, Byron Pringle should play a decent-enough percent of the snaps to be an MME dart at $600, or you could hope that TE2 Nick Keizer gets a fluky touchdown catch. Of all of the Chiefs punts, RBs included, Pringle is the only one who will find his way onto my rosters, and that’s only if Watkins is out.

The Ravens run game is fantastic for their real-life game-winning purposes, but horrible for DFS. Mark Ingram has led the snap counts in both games (barely) and he’s only seen 10 and 12 touches through the first two games; for $1,000 more, CEH is clearly the superior play. J.K. Dobbins scored two touchdowns in Week 1, and was promptly rewarded by being given just three touches in Week 2. Gus Edwards got some mop-up duty in the Week 2 blowout with 10 carries, but that’s an outlier outcome for the GusBus;  I would only want to use him in lineups that build around the Ravens stomping the Chiefs. This backfield is awfully tough to feel confident in. I’ll have modest exposure to both Ingram and Dobbins, as the Ravens score a lot of touchdowns and either of them could get into the end zone multiple times; but as with everything on Baltimore you’re betting on efficiency over volume. My one “try to guess the coaching tendency” take here, is that in a game against the Chiefs, the Ravens might lean a little more heavily on Ingram as their most established back, knowing that even if they have a lead, no lead is safe against Patrick Mahomes. That’s just a guess and is backed by no data, but if Ingram projects to be very low owned, it’s not outrageous to want to overweight him.

In the pass game, the Ravens low-volume aerial attack starts with Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown. Brown is leading the team in both targets and air yards, with Andrews having more touchdown equity. As someone who likes to bet on volume rather than touchdown scoring, I’m going to prioritize Brown over Andrews (and both are a tier below Hill and Kelce, given that the volume for the Chiefs core two is much more bankable). The most interesting receiver on the Ravens, though, is Miles Boykin, who has led the team in snaps so far and is second on the team with nine targets. At just $3,400, he’s the cheapest full-time skill position player in this game by a wide margin with the exception of Demarcus Robinson; who as explored above, is a bad player and owes me an apology. Boykin should be very popular here as the best value play on a slate in which we desperately need value; exposure to Boykin is one of the most pivotal decisions on the slate. I think he’s a strong play, but it’s tough to want to go all-in on a volatile receiver on a low-volume offense at huge ownership. Willie Snead will be on the field a lot as well at a modest price, but as a slot receiver (who thus needs volume to rack up yardage) in a low-volume offense, he’s a pretty dodgy play unless he gets a touchdown. Past that, Nick Boyle is the next most viable play. Boyle has only seen two targets on the season so far, but he’s playing a lot of snaps, and I will always bias towards guys on the field. Or, take a shot on Devin Duvernay, who has a catch in each game for some decent yardage and could possibly find his way into the end zone.

The pricing on this slate is very challenging; Lamar at $13k and Mahomes at $12k. Expect to see both QBs highly owned with people making some dubious lineups to try to play them both (especially with one in the captain slot). More on this in rules…

The most likely way that this game plays out is the Ravens’ high-efficiency offense is able to put up points, and while the Chiefs struggled against the Chargers last week, the Chargers D is a very different beast than the Ravens. The Chargers have such a good pass rush with just four going after the QB and keeping seven men in coverage, while the Ravens achieve their pass rush success through very aggressive blitzing, which Mahomes has excelled against in his career. I don’t think the Ravens hold the Chiefs down here, and people might shy away a bit after seeing what the Chargers did last week. This game is likely to be a high-scoring back-and-forth affair, with Baltimore leading most (if not all) of the game and the Chiefs keeping it within a score most of the time. Some other ways the game could play out…

OTHER WAYS THIS GAME COULD PLAY OUT:

• I could be wrong about the Chiefs being able to keep pace. Mahomes hasn’t looked as good as usual in his first two games (yes, they put up 34 points against the Texans, but it was mostly on short passes and the run game). This feels like an unlikely outcome, but if the Ravens D can slow down the Chiefs, they could really control time of possession with their run-heavy attack and slow this game way down.
• Especially if the Chiefs can put up early, this can turn into more of a shootout. The thing that holds the Ravens skill position players back is volume, but if we get a real shootout, the volume concerns could go out the window. In this game environment, the Ravens run game loses value but their receivers shoot way up; imagine a Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown who were averaging 8-10 targets per game!

My favorite overall captain here, and I feel gross writing this, is…Miles Boykin. He’s unlikely to put up the highest score on the slate, but with so many expensive guys, he doesn’t need to; he just needs to put up the highest point-per-dollar score, which he is fully capable of doing. What you need for this to work is some combination of the expensive studs to all have strong games without one guy beating out the rest by a wide margin. He’s also one of the few captains that lets you afford both Lamar and Mahomes without completely hating the rest of your lineup (even though you probably still won’t love it). I’ll also want exposure to CEH and the top two receivers from each team.

SOME GROUPS TO CONSIDER:

• At most 1 kicker and at most 1 defense, as always
• Pair captain receivers with their QBs (or consider boosting the QB if using a captain receiver if you don’t want 100% exposure to this pairing – discussed in further detail in the 2020 update to my Advanced Showdowns course)
• At most 1 of Mahomes and Jackson. This is a risky group; of course it’s possible that both could end up in the optimal, but after playing around building by hand, the lineups get pretty ugly if you try to use them both. I might do a few hand-built Boykin lineups with both but otherwise will probably use this rule.
• If Watkins plays, at most 2 of Watkins, Hardman, and Robinson
• At most 1 or 2 Ravens running backs (which rule is your choice; at most one is the play that gives you the best chance of winning, as it’s unlikely that two make it into the optimal, but it’s not impossible and using two will be very contrarian here if you’re willing to embrace that higher-variance approach)
• At most 1 of Andrews and Brown unless playing at least 1 of Hill/Kelce/CEH. It’s highly unlikely that both Andrews and Brown can really go off until the Chiefs are able to score and drive up the Ravens’ passing volume, which will very likely come through one of those three guys.

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