PACKERS // SEAHAWKS OVERVIEW

Sometimes, schedule matters more than talent. Right now, a Seahawks team and a Packers team that both have the pieces to make noise in the playoffs are sitting at 4-5 and 4-4-1, respectively. The loser of this game will have six games left and basically no margin for error. The winner will be one step closer to righting the ship and sneaking into the postseason, where anything can happen.

Each of these teams ranks top 10 in time of possession, with the Seahawks slowing down the game enough (bottom 10 in pace of play, dead last in pass play rate) to shave almost 6% off the league average opponent plays per game. Only four teams are allowing fewer opponent plays per game than Seattle, and they should be able to continue shortening games in this spot against a Packers defense that is far easier to run on (26th in run defense DVOA) than they are to pass on (ninth in pass defense DVOA). As explored through much of the year: this is by design for the Packers, as they play lighter personnel packages and focus on the pass over the run. Because of the threat of Russell Wilson, opponents are essentially forced to stick to their standard approach against this Seahawks team, rather than selling out to stop the run, so expect this to be a slight “volume down” spot for this game as a whole.

While the Packers probably have the slightly better team, this game being played in Seattle creates a nice blend that should allow the contest to remain close throughout. Vegas has installed the Seahawks as early 2.5 point favorites, in a game with a healthy Over/Under of 49.0. The pressure will be on the Packers to push this game total to that level, as they have hit 49.0 or higher in three of their last five games (with their game against the Patriots falling just one point short), while the Seahawks have played in a totally different scoring environment this year. If we take away their games against the Rams, their last six games have finished with totals of 41 // 37 // 37 // 30 // 42 // 42. With the Seahawks focused on the run and the Packers primarily focused on short passing, it seems likely we see this total trickle down as we move closer to Thursday.

PACKERS PASS OFFENSE

Seattle’s defense has eliminated downfield passing this year, shaving almost 10% off the league-average aDOT and ranking top 12 in fewest pass plays allowed of 20+ yards and top four in fewest pass plays allowed of 40+ yards. With Seattle shortening games so thoroughly, they have faced the ninth fewest pass attempts in the league, which makes their pass defense numbers look better than they are. While the Seahawks force short throws, they allow a league-average catch rate and have been below-average after the catch, leading to a middling yards allowed per pass attempt.

Volume should be more of a concern than matchup for a Packers passing attack that is an outlier in today’s aggressive, movement-and-misdirection offensive environment — as the Packers essentially send their receivers out to beat their man, and then allow Aaron Rodgers to work his connection. While Rodgers can certainly attack downfield, the core of this passing attack is their shorter-area, move-the-sticks passes — and a matchup against a team that forces a lower aDOT but still allows an average catch rate should not impact this offense too negatively.

Over his last three games, Rodgers has averaged an uncharacteristically low 33.67 pass attempts per game — right in line with the 33.56 attempts per game the Seahawks have allowed on the year. Rodgers could push for 35 to 36 attempts (and there are “off the rails” scenarios in which his volume spikes higher), but this gives us a good baseline for looking at what targets have been like on this offense over this lower-volume stretch:

:: Davante Adams — 7.67 targets per game
:: Jimmy Graham — 3.67 targets per game
:: Marquez Valdes-Scantling — 6.0 targets per game
:: Randall Cobb — 5.5 targets per game (two games)
:: Equanimeous St. Brown — 3.0 targets per game

We should highlight the fact that Adams has had matchups with Stephon Gilmore and Xavien Howard in this stretch, and he carries the most room for target growth in this spot as the clear preferred option for Rodgers. Rodgers and Adams connect most frequently along the left sideline — particularly on out-breaking routes and double moves that play off the short connection these two have to shake Adams free deep. This is how both Brandin Cooks and Marvin Jones found success against Seattle in the last three weeks, setting up Adams for a big game if the usage is there.

Only two teams have allowed fewer receptions to tight ends than the Seahawks, and it seems likely that they try to ensure that Graham, of all people, doesn’t beat them. The Seahawks (as noted for years in this space) are more “scheme and talent” than play-calling and opponent-specific approaches on defense, so even if they don’t prioritize taking away Graham in his first year away from the team, he’ll have the toughest matchup of the bunch. If you want to bet on him, perhaps Rodgers tries to get him going after last week’s season-low one target.

MVS will benefit from playing in the slot if Cobb misses again. His seven targets last week came with Rodgers throwing only 28 times. When MVS plays on the outside, it is tougher for him to be the second read on plays designed to go to Adams, as the two are typically playing on opposite sides of the formation; but when MVS moves into the slot, he is often running routes that allow him to be the second read behind Adams — enhancing his opportunity for looks.

Rodgers has a long track record of throwing to guys he trusts and ignoring those he doesn’t, and St. Brown has not yet made his way into that first category. He’ll be on the field plenty if Cobb misses, but he’ll rarely (if ever) be the first read, leaving his volume fairly scarce.

If Cobb plays, he’ll step back into his safe, low-upside role — requiring a broken play in order to hit.

PACKERS RUN OFFENSE

Only three teams are allowing more yards per carry than the Seahawks and their up-and-down run D. Because of the low play volume the Seahawks allow, they rank only middle of the pack in yards allowed to running backs, but their 4.55 YPC allowed to running backs is clearly attackable.

If the world is a good place, you can expect the Packers to attack with Aaron Jones, who finally — mercifully — played 42 out of 57 snaps last week (73.7%), while Jamaal Williams played only 14. Jones ran 22 pass routes, saw five targets, and carried the ball 15 times. We are rarely (if ever) going to see a Packers running back become a true volume horse, as this team will always mix backs to some extent, and Rodgers will always look to throw in close games (and will always look to throw close to the goal line). But somewhere in the range of 16 to 20 touches should be a solid expectation again in this spot, and Jones has the skills to take advantage of this matchup.

SEAHAWKS PASS OFFENSE

Only eight teams have faced a lower pass play rate than the Packers, as teams prefer to run against Green Bay’s lighter fronts. Only four teams have faced fewer pass attempts than the Packers, and their 182 completions allowed is fourth lowest in the league.

From a DFS perspective, this meshes poorly with the passing attack of the Seahawks, as this team is happy to run the ball all day if an opponent will allow it. Across his last seven games, Russ has pass attempt numbers of 26 // 26 // 21 // 23 // 17 // 39 // 26 — absurdly low totals for an elite quarterback. He has not passed for 300 yards a single time this year, and he has topped 235 passing yards only once since Week 1.

If we take away the 39 attempt outlier in Week 9, targets on this squad across the last four games have looked like this:

:: Doug Baldwin — 4.25 targets per game
:: Tyler Lockett — 4.0 targets per game
:: David Moore — 3.5 targets per game
:: Nick Vannett — 2.5 targets per game (two games)

Lockett and Baldwin each have four red zone targets on the season while Moore has five. It’s incredibly scary to try to bet on a wide receiver in a passing attack with so little volume, but efficiency has been impressive for this squad, with Russ throwing for 21 touchdowns on the year — with multiple touchdowns in all but one game, and with five games already this year with three touchdown passes. Ultimately, a bet on these receivers is a bet on the idea that you can guess where the touchdowns will come. If searching for lower-owned upside, it is worth noting that Lockett has an aDOT of 12.0 while Baldwin is not far behind him at 10.8. With a similar red zone role between these two and a similar aDOT, Lockett (seven touchdowns) is a candidate for regression, while Baldwin (zero touchdowns) sets up for positive regression. Each guy has a higher yardage projection than Moore or Vannett.

SEAHAWKS RUN OFFENSE

Green Bay is only allowing an increase on the league-average YPC mark of 2.5%, in spite of their invitation to opponents to focus on the ground game — but Green Bay has allowed an above-average number of rushing touchdowns on the season, and volume should be in favor of the Seattle backs.

If Chris Carson misses this week, we will likely see Seattle deploy a fairly even workload split between Mike Davis and Rashaad Penny. Last week, Davis played 39 snaps while Penny played 27. Davis saw 11 carries and six targets, compared to 12 carries and no targets for his teammate. Penny has caught nine of his 12 targets on the year, and he ran 14 pass routes last week to 23 for Davis, so he projects as more than a stone zero in the pass game — though Seattle does view Davis as their primary pass-catching weapon out of the backfield right now. Somewhere around 12 to 16 carries with three or four catches is a safe projection for Davis, while 10 to 14 carries and one or two catches is a comfortable projection for Penny. That comes with the obvious caveat that this Seahawks team has a track record of sudden and unpredictable change. As long as only two backs are healthy, however, we should be able to bank on plenty of work going to those two. If Carson returns, the safest guess would be Carson remaining in the lead with Davis playing behind him, but at that point all bets would be off.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Rodgers stands out as a solid play, while Adams is the clear top option in the passing attack. If Cobb misses, I like MVS as an underpriced piece with a safe floor and strong upside for the cost, while MVS will take a step back for me if Cobb is on the field (his floor will take a hit, though his upside will remain intact). Graham is a “hope for touchdown” play, as he appears unlikely to see more than four or five looks in this spot. St. Brown and/or Cobb would be “hope for a broken play” options on the Showdown. Cobb obviously carries the higher floor. In the backfield, Jones is a strong piece yet again — with what finally appears to be a locked-in workload, in a good matchup against a beatable Seahawks run D.

I like Rodgers more than Russ, I like Adams and MVS more than the Seattle pass catchers (though it becomes closer between MVS and Baldwin/Lockett if Cobb plays), and I like Jones more than I like the Seattle backfield. Quite simply: a team that runs the ball a lot and passes little is worse for DFS. With that said: at least a couple guys on the Seahawks should prove to be useful, with Russ obviously a candidate to post a strong score (his 92 rushing yards last week came vs a Rams team that refused to spy him, so consider that an unlikely event — but another 30 to 50 yards on the ground is a fair projection, and his touchdown efficiency has been spectacular), and with Baldwin and Lockett at least interesting for their per-play upside on the Showdown. Because the Packers are not a “strike fast and deep” team, this is not going to turn into a track meet in which Seattle opens things up and hits these two for a bushel of big plays, but each guy has a clear shot at a starting-caliber score. Behind these guys, Moore and Vannett (and even Dickson, who played over 30% of the snaps last week) are dart throws. The running backs are solid, but unspectacular.

PANTHERS // LIONS OVERVIEW

The 6-3 Panthers (5-0 at home, 1-3 on the road) will travel to Detroit this week off a tough blowout loss to the Steelers, to take on a 3-6 Lions team that has not been able to muster much success at home (2-2) or on the road (1-4). Each team plays at a below-average pace and prefers to lean on the run in neutral matchups, which has led to Detroit allowing the fewest opponent plays per game in the NFL, with Carolina allowing the eighth fewest. On a more positive note for this offensive environment: each defense ranks in the bottom eight in drive success rate allowed, creating an attackable spot for each offense. Carolina also ranks 31st in opponent red zone touchdown rate — allowing teams to put together sustained drives that are finished off with touchdowns. Only eight teams have allowed more points per game than Carolina, and only four teams have allowed more points per game than Detroit. The Panthers also rank ninth in points per game on offense (Detroit ranks 20th).

Teams primarily choose to attack Detroit on the ground, as only the Raiders and Cardinals have faced a lower pass play rate than the Lions this season. This should slow down the game a bit, and with Carolina ranked 26th in the NFL in pass plays of 20+ yards on offense (and with Detroit ranked 23rd on offense), we will be looking for points to come from a game full of sustained drives, rather than through quick strikes. This will make it tough for this game to soar past its lofty game total (51.0 — the third highest on the main slate early in the week), but each team has solid pieces on offense, and each defense ranks middle of the pack in yards allowed per game, so there should be opportunities for DFS goodness to emerge in a handful of spots.

PANTHERS PASS OFFENSE

There is not a team in football that has faced fewer pass attempts this year than the Lions, and only two teams have allowed fewer receptions. This has nothing to do with matchup, as Detroit is allowing the sixth highest completion percentage in the league, while allowing an increase on the league-average aDOT of an incredible 21.3% — “good for” the deepest aDOT allowed in all of football. Detroit does tackle well after the catch, but they are ultimately allowing the second highest yards per pass attempt in the NFL.

Both elements (the great matchup, but also the low volume) should be considered when looking at the Panthers’ passing attack this week. Most people will only be focused on the matchup, but recognize that with both teams playing slow, with Detroit allowing the fewest opponent plays per game in the NFL, and with Carolina running the 10th fewest plays per game in the league, volume will be a concern for individual pass catchers — especially as most teams attack Detroit on the ground, and Carolina (20th in pass play rate) already skews toward the run themselves. Cam Newton has failed to reach even 30 pass attempts in five of nine games this year, including each of his last three.

Targets over these three games have looked like this:

:: Devin Funchess — 3 // 5 // 5
:: D.J. Moore — 6 // 2 // 5
:: Greg Olsen — 4 // 6 // 6
:: Curtis Samuel — 3 // 4 // 4
:: Jarius Wright — 3 // 1 // 3

From a DFS perspective, it’s perpetually difficult to find slate-winning upside in this group of pass catchers, in a low-volume passing attack that spreads around targets behind alpha Christian McCaffrey (five or more targets in all but one game this year). If you are willing to miss out on slate-winning upside, the guys likeliest to produce starting-caliber scores are Funchess and Moore at wide receiver, and Olsen at tight end. Funchess has topped 100 yards only once in his entire career, but he has a non-awful nine red zone targets and a couple red zone scores this year. Moore has three red zone touchdowns of his own on only five red zone targets, and he carries more per-play upside as a superior catch-and-run piece. Moore’s xYAC/R of 6.2 is much higher than Funchess’ mark of 2.7 — and Funchess’ actual YAC/R of 1.8 is dead last in the entire league among players with at least 35 targets. As for Olsen: Detroit is a middling matchup for tight ends, and Olsen is securely involved in the offense as a four-to-six target guy. If passing volume happens to unexpectedly spike in this spot, McCaffrey and then Olsen would likely be the first to see an increase in looks, with Funchess and then Moore coming afterward.

PANTHERS RUN OFFENSE

Last week, we began our writeup of the Lions’ run defense with this:

“Life does not actually work like this, but…if we take away the 70-yard run Dalvin Cook had against the Lions [in Week 9], this run defense held Latavius Murray and Cook to a 19-50-1 line on the ground (2.63 YPC), after holding Chris Carson and Mike Davis to a 35-138-1 line (3.94 YPC) — showing marked improvement with Snacks Harrison added to the center of this unit. Of course: the 70-yard run that Cook had remains part of the equation against the Lions. As noted when Snacks was added: it takes more than one player to make a run defense good, and there are still issues on the second level for the Lions that can expose them to big plays on the ground.”

Detroit proceeded to hold Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard to 36 yards on 18 carries (2.0 YPC) last week — a third consecutive strong game, minus one long play. “Long plays” will remain part of the potential equation here, but be aware of what the Lions have done over their last three contests outside of that one long run.

The good news for McCaffrey is that the Panthers’ offensive line has been excellent — with Norv Turner designing a tremendous run scheme that opens consistent holes for ball carriers. The Panthers rank eighth in adjusted line yards on offense, while two of the teams that Detroit held in check recently (Chicago and Minnesota) rank bottom five in this department. (The Seahawks — whose 3.94 YPC in this matchup doesn’t leave a ton of room for complaint — rank 15th in adjusted line yards.) I’m comfortable considering this a neutral-at-worst spot for CMC, with a better-than-normal shot at a big play, given the struggles the Lions are still prone to on the second level. The Lions are a non-threatening matchup in the pass game for running backs. CMC has finished shy of five catches only twice all season, and he has finished shy of 45 receiving yards only three times. He doesn’t quite carry the same red zone role as guys like Kareem Hunt, Melvin Gordon, and James Conner, as Cam (13 red zone carries) is going to get some action as well, but his role in this area has been on the rise recently, giving him respectable ceiling to go with his already excellent floor.

LIONS OFFENSE

Carolina allows a deeper-than-league-average aDOT and is merely average at preventing completed passes, with their strength in tackling after the catch allowing them to rank middle-of-the-pack in yards allowed per pass attempt (only Baltimore and Pittsburgh allow lower YAC/R rates than the Panthers). Teams do prefer to pass on the Panthers rather than testing their front on the ground; only seven teams have faced a higher pass play rate than the Carolina, which has led to them facing a middling number of pass attempts this year, in spite of limiting opponent play volume. (Conversely, only four teams have faced fewer rush attempts this year than the Panthers.)

The Lions have tried to box themselves into a run-heavy approach lately, but with their defense playing so poorly, they have been regularly forced to pass — and with no Golden Tate over the middle, the effectiveness of these passes is waning. Over his first two games without Tate, Stafford has completed 50 of 78 passes (64.1%), for only 473 yards (6.1 YPA — a mark that would be better than only Buffalo and Arizona on the year), with two touchdowns and two interceptions. To Stafford’s credit, those games also came against a Bears pass defense that ranks fourth in DVOA and a Vikings pass defense that ranks 10th in DVOA in spite of their early-season struggles. Carolina ranks 24th in DVOA against the pass, creating potential for Stafford to prove that his recent dip in play was due more to matchup than to the absence of Tate.

With Tate out of the picture, Stafford has fed an incredible 26 targets to running backs the last two weeks, locking both Kerryon Johnson and Theo Riddick into secure workloads. It appears Matt Patricia has finally let go of the notion that LeGarrette Blount is still a useful NFL player, as Kerryon played 55 snaps last week, compared to nine for the aging vet, one week after Kerryon played 39 snaps to 11 for Blount. The matchup on the ground is middling, and Detroit may not be able to give Kerryon more than 14 to 16 carries if forced into pass-heavy mode again, but with 49 pass routes run and 11 targets over the last two weeks, he’s a key cog regardless, and he should be viewed as a talented 18 to 22 touch back.

Riddick has played 42 backfield snaps in the last two weeks, and 43 additional snaps at receiver or in an H-back role. He has zero carries, but he has target counts of eight and seven and should be viewed as a possession receiver with decent YAC upside — essentially a “floor” play with an outside shot at ceiling.

Passes to wide receivers and tight ends have been heavily concentrated on Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay, with these two combining for 32 targets across the last two weeks, while T.J. Jones, Brandon Powell, and the three tight ends have combined for 17 total looks. When Marvin went down last week, Stafford essentially concentrated all of his “Marvin/Golladay” targets onto Golladay alone, rather than spreading those looks around. If Marvin misses this week, there is a good chance Golladay hits double-digit targets, and that Riddick/Kerryon see a small bump before T.J. // Powell // tight ends see additional usage. If Marvin plays, he should be considered the primary option, with 15 targets in less than two full games, with Golladay mixing in for around five to eight looks of his own. Marvin will have quiet “smash” upside if he’s healthy, while Golladay will likely rise to the top of the “popular plays” pile if Marvin misses. While it is true that crazy things can happen in the NFL (see Tyler Boyd in Week 10, with Cincinnati running an impossibly low 43 plays, and with Dalton throwing only 20 passes), Golladay’s workload and upside will really pop without Marvin on the field.

If moving away from the backs and receivers, the Lions have tried to force the issue lately with Michael Roberts (seven targets the last two weeks), though he caught only two of those targets, for 21 yards, and he left Sunday’s game early with a shoulder injury. Carolina has allowed the second most catches, the third most yards, and the most touchdowns to the tight end position, giving Roberts low-floor upside if he plays this week.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Cam has reached 300 passing yards only once this season, but he has exactly two passing touchdowns in seven consecutive games, and he has added four rushing touchdowns and 352 rushing yards on the year. He’s a strong floor/ceiling play in a matchup where volume is the only concern — and with Cam often doing his box score damage on low volume anyway, expectations aren’t any different than normal. The same can be said for the Panthers’ pass catchers (“expectations aren’t any different than normal”), which leaves all of them as merely “fringe” options for me. Moore will be interesting to consider for upside if value proves thin this week, while Olsen is one of the few semi-reliable tight ends. Ahead of these guys for me is McCaffrey, who will definitely be in consideration for me throughout the week. He’s essentially a lock for 60 or 70 rushing yards with around 5-50-0 through the air as a floor, and he has plenty of upside from there. The Lions will stuff the run more often than before, but there is still potential for a couple explosive plays.

Any time I can roster a talented, inexpensive 20-touch running back in a decent spot, I will consider doing so — which means that Kerryon will make my list on the Lions’ side of the ball. Detroit’s overall offensive environment is a concern, but with this game being played in Detroit, the Lions should be able to keep it close, and I always like taking running backs against poor red zone defenses — with Carolina providing the second biggest boost in the league in this area. Riddick moving to wide receiver half the time is allowing Kerryon to keep a bigger role in the pass game.

Riddick is also interesting on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, where he essentially functions as a cheap possession wide receiver. Adam Humphries went 8-82-2 in this matchup a couple weeks ago — so while that’s obviously not the likeliest scenario, this does create some upside to go with the low price and the decent PPR floor on Riddick. The only thing I don’t like about this play is that it takes up a valuable RB spot without the upside I would like to target at this position in an optimal setup.

If Marvin Jones misses, I’ll have a lot of interest in Golladay. If Marvin plays, each wide receiver will remain in consideration, but Marvin will stand out as the guy who is a bit likelier to reach his upside.

If I decide to pile a ton of uncertainty onto one roster spot again this week, Michael Roberts will also be in play as a cheap tight end option on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, where tight end savings can really open things up. If Roberts plays, he’ll have a better-than-zero floor, and he’ll have a shot to go something like 4-30-1, as a guy in a good matchup playing around 50% of the snaps and being fed a few targets per game.

RAVENS // BENGALS OVERVIEW

This AFC North matchup pairs a couple of sinking ships to see which team can stick around in the playoff conversation a bit longer (and to see which head coach is likelier to get the hook at the end of the year). The Bengals have tumbled to a 5-4 record with only one win in their last four games (to be fair: the losses came against the Steelers, Chiefs, and Saints), while the Ravens have lost three straight to fall to 4-5. Things have gotten so bad with the Cincinnati defense (32nd in yards per game…31st in points per game…31st in drive success rate allowed…26th in red zone touchdown rate allowed) that Teryl Austin has been fired, Marvin Lewis is taking over the defensive play-calling, and Hue Jackson (yes, that Hue Jackson) has been brought in to help with the offense. As for the Ravens: Joe Flacco is shaping up as a game-time decision — and while one function of fantasy sports is that people stop worrying about how the sport is played and instead care only about “talent” and “measurables,” Baltimore clearly does not feel that Lamar Jackson is ready to run the offense just yet, as they are not only willing to let Flacco play without practicing, but there is also talk that Robert Griffin III will start at quarterback if Flacco misses. Because we are unlikely to truly have clarity on this spot until Sunday, we’ll move forward with this writeup and work around the unknowns — breaking down the Ravens in a standard manner up top, and using the “Interpretations” section to sort through the adjustments that I’ll be making in expectations if Flacco sits. Hopefully before Sunday morning we get a better feel for who will be under center.

RAVENS PASS OFFENSE

The Ravens have played at the second fastest pace in the NFL, they have thrown the ball at the eighth highest rate, and they have played great defense — all of which has added up to allow this team to lead the NFL in plays per game, making it all the more incredible that they rank only 15th in yards per game and 17th in points per game. Their play volume should be locked in place this week against a Cincy team that ranks 31st in time of possession and has allowed the second most opponent plays per game (one year after the Bengals ranked dead last in both categories), while the matchup against a pass defense that ranks 26th in yards allowed per pass attempt should provide a further boost. Cincinnati allows an above-average aDOT, an above-average catch rate, and an average YAC/R mark. Only six teams have allowed more receptions to wide receivers, and only three teams have allowed more yards. The Bengals have also allowed the second most pass plays of 20+ yards.

Targets among Ravens wide receivers across their last three games have looked like this:

:: John Brown — 7 // 7 // 6
:: Michael Crabtree — 9 // 5 // 7
:: Willie Snead — 7 // 11 // 8

Most of the major damage against the Bengals has come from true Number One Receivers, with Michael Thomas, Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Julio Jones all hammering this team for big lines — but guys like Mohamed Sanu and Adam Humphries have come through as well, creating some optimism for this group.

Brown can be comfortably projected for around seven targets each week, with three games in which he has risen above that mark. This team appears to be past the point where they will force-feed JB looks, and he has connected on only 50.7% of the targets that have come his way — but while this lowers his floor, his downfield role and the matchup combine to keep his ceiling intact.

Crabtree has fallen shy of eight targets only three times all year — but two of those three have come in his last two games. Crabtree leads the NFL with 10 dropped passes (four more than anyone else in the league), and his YAC/R rate of 2.7 is a full 2.1 yards shy of his xYAC/R — so it makes sense for this offense to phase him out as much as they can. With very little to work with behind Crabtree, however, he is still going to see his looks. He has topped 66 receiving yards only once all season, but it wouldn’t be a shock if he cracks that mark this week.

Snead has seen an increase in work lately as a more reliable set of hands, but he has not topped 60 yards in a game this year, and he has only one touchdown and a measly three red zone targets on the season. This team ranks first in the NFL in pass attempts, yet Flacco has only two games all season of 300+ yards.

This passing attack wraps up with a three-way tight end rotation (Mark Andrews, Nick Boyle, Hayden Hurst) that has combined for 19 total targets across the Ravens’ last two games, with none of these individual players hauling in more than four catches in a game, and with a max of 50 receiving yards.

RAVENS RUN OFFENSE

The Bengals have also been generous to running backs — allowing the fifth most yards per carry and the third most running back touchdowns. There is nothing in this matchup that should scare us away, as we have been targeting this unit with running backs for nearly two months now. The one thing that makes this matchup less appealing is the Ravens’ backfield itself.

Alex Collins has topped 12 carries only once in his last six games, and he has not yet rushed for even 70 yards in a game this year. With only 15 catches on the season, it is difficult to get excited about the upside he provides. He’ll need a couple long plays or a multi-score game to become a usable piece.

Now that Ty Montgomery has had the bye week to learn the Ravens’ playbook, we also do not know how he and Javorius Allen will see their playing time divvied up. Allen has only five carries across his last four games, but he has averaged four targets per game in that stretch. It won’t be surprising to see Montgomery cut into some of that work, and it won’t even be a shock if he takes over some of Collins’ work as well. As with the Baltimore tight end rotation: it is unlikely we see one guy emerge as a go-to option in this group.

BENGALS PASS OFFENSE

The Bengals’ offense is in disarray — ranking 25th in yards per game, 31st in time of possession, and 29th in plays per game. They will be taking on a Baltimore team that allows the second fewest yards per game and the second fewest points per game in the league. As of this writing, we do not yet have a line for this game (Vegas is waiting for more clarity on the Flacco situation), but it won’t be surprising if the Bengals end up with the second-lowest Vegas-implied total on the slate, ahead of only the Raiders.

Baltimore’s pass defense has paired a below-average aDOT allowed with the lowest catch rate allowed and the second lowest YAC/R rate allowed — adding up to the fewest yards per pass attempt allowed this season. Only two teams have allowed fewer passing touchdowns. Only six teams have more sacks.

When these teams last played, Tyler Boyd busted out for a 6-91-1 line in Week 2 — announcing himself to those who were paying attention, and setting us up to capture the great Boyd run that began in Week 3. This week, Boyd will be the only guy for Andy Dalton to really throw to, as A.J. Green (in spite of some optimism from Marvin Lewis) is expected to miss at least a couple more games. Dalton threw only 20 passes last week (a more comfortable projection is 33 to 38 attempts in this spot, against a fast-paced Baltimore team that allows a middling number of opponent plays per game), so Boyd’s four targets should be taken with a grain of salt. A fair projection for this spot is something like eight to 10 looks, in one of the more difficult wide receiver matchups in football. Baltimore has allowed the eighth fewest catches and the second fewest yards to the position.

If Green returns, he will be playing at less than 100% in an obviously-challenging draw, though he should return to his typical eight to 10 looks. He would be a “talent over matchup” bet.

With Green out of action last week, John Ross played 36 out of 43 snaps, Cody Core played 20 snaps, and Alex Erickson played 16. Core went 2-17-0 on two targets; Erickson saw zero looks; and Ross unsurprisingly caught only two of his six targets (he now has a 40.9% catch rate on the year), for 39 yards and a touchdown.

The “best” matchup goes to C.J. Uzomah, as the Ravens have allowed the 10th most catches and the 10th most yards to tight ends. Uzomah has topped four targets only once this season, and he has finished under 25 receiving yards in five of his last seven games.

BENGALS RUN OFFENSE

Baltimore has also been stout against the run, ranking ninth in yards allowed per carry while giving up only five total touchdowns to the position (the third lowest mark in the league). No team has allowed fewer receiving yards to running backs, creating a difficult spot for Joe Mixon all the way around — on a struggling offense with a low scoring expectation.

Even with Giovani Bernard missing most of these games, Mixon has recent touch counts of 15 // 16 // 24 // 13, as this offense has had a tough time sustaining drives, and this team has been constantly playing from behind. This is a good spot to point out that these “playing from behind” games came against the Steelers, Chiefs, and Saints — creating an opportunity this week for Mixon to rise back to 20+ touches — but the matchup still leaves you betting on talent and workload. At his elevated price, Mixon will almost certainly require a multi-touchdown game to become a difference-maker on the slate.

Behind Mixon (29 out of 43 snaps last week), Gio played only 12 snaps. His role may grow a bit moving forward, but this should be Mixon’s backfield for the remainder of the year.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

In spite of the quality matchup for the Ravens’ passing attack, this team spreads volume too thin and has shown too little upside for me to have much interest in any individual pass catcher, regardless of who is under center. Of course, the matchup does create a case for targeting JB for upside or even taking a “floor with upside” shot on Crabtree or Snead, but there will prove to be better on-paper plays than this. The most appealing spot on this team would be the tight end position — but with Hurst, Andrews, and Boyle continuing to rotate, it would be nothing but a guessing game to target this spot.

The Ravens’ hesitation to pull the trigger on Jackson or RGIII with Flacco ailing tells us a lot about the comfort level they feel with these other two at the moment. If one of these two starts, I don’t expect to find my interest in these pass catchers suddenly rising; the matchup means that any of these wide receivers have upside for a good game — but a QB change would not provide any sort of “floor” boost, leaving these guys in the same category for me as before.

One change that could occur for me if Flacco misses is interest in the Baltimore QB position, as RGIII or Jackson would carry dual-threat upside in a tremendous matchup. Frankly, Jackson will likely be overhyped (and over-owned) if he starts — on a slate with plenty to like at quarterback, including plenty to like among cost-effective options. As a raw rookie in his first career game (in an offense that is not all that good), there is no guarantee he performs well; but the matchup would obviously give him a boost. Of course, it appears right now that the likeliest scenario is RGIII starting if Flacco sits. This would be easier for me to ignore, as RGIII looked “good not great” in the preseason, and an RGIII start would likely include several packages in which Jackson is on the field.

As much as I have loved attacking the Bengals with running backs this year, it would also be tough to go there with the Ravens’ multi-headed attack. It won’t be a shock if Collins posts a useful game or if Montgomery takes on a larger role than expected — but neither guy has week-winning upside, and there are better plays than this.

On a slate with plenty to like in other spots, I’ll leave the Bengals alone myself. If you want to go here: there is a case to be made for Boyd as a low-owned number one receiver in a “tough, but not impossible” matchup. Boyd’s floor is low here, but it wouldn’t be crazy to see him go something like 6-90-1 again, and if he added another touchdown to that line he could be a solid piece. Of course…there are wide receivers priced close to him who are genuinely likely to post a line like that — making it tough for me to justify taking on such a low floor to get there.

The same “game theory” case could be made for Mixon (low ownership, and not crazy to think he could post a strong game). But again: if taking on this floor, I would want upside for a true top-of-the-slate score, and I’m just not seeing that this week.

COWBOYS // FALCONS OVERVIEW

Both of these teams are hanging around in the NFC playoff picture at 4-5, with the Falcons coming off a dispiriting road loss to the Browns, and with the Cowboys traveling down the coast after a big road win over the Eagles. For whatever it’s worth, the Falcons are 3-2 at home, while the Cowboys are 1-4 on the road.

This game pairs contrasting styles, as the Cowboys prefer to lean run-heavy (23rd in pass play rate), while the Falcons focus primarily on the pass (fourth in pass play rate). Teams have attacked Dallas through the air at the eighth lowest rate in the league, while Atlanta has faced the sixth highest opponent pass play rate this year.

While Atlanta ranks top eight on offense in both yards and points per game, Dallas has allowed the third fewest points per game and the seventh fewest yards per game. Opponent point totals on the year against the Cowboys look like this: 16 // 13 // 24 // 24 // 19 // 7 // 20 // 28 // 20 — creating opportunity for Atlanta to pile up enough points to matter, but making it difficult for this team to really pop as a whole this week.

Atlanta’s defense, of course, has significantly boosted opponent production, allowing the fourth most points and the third most yards per game. No team has allowed a higher drive success rate than Atlanta, and only two teams have allowed a higher red zone touchdown rate. Only two teams have allowed more touchdowns to wide receivers, and only two teams have allowed more touchdowns to running backs. Atlanta does return difference-making linebacker Deion Jones this week — though it should be pointed out that Jones is an anchor to this speed-based attack, and as such he is a bit undersized (6’2″, 220 pounds) against a guy like Zeke (6’0″, 225 pounds). This should remain an above-average matchup for what Dallas wants to do.

Vegas has given this game a bold Over/Under of 48.0 — with only one of the Cowboys’ nine games this year rising that high (a 24-26 game vs Detroit). The Falcons have played better defense lately (20 points to the Giants, 14 points to the Redskins, 28 points to the Browns), and they are returning one of their key players on this side of the ball, so don’t be surprised if this total trickles down a bit, but there should still be some opportunity for production to pile up.

COWBOYS PASS OFFENSE

The Colts and Bucs are the only teams allowing a higher catch rate than Atlanta, creating a solid setup for Dak Prescott, who has thrown the ball over 30 times in three consecutive games — after cracking 30 attempts only once in his first six contests. Along with the way, Dak has also been using his legs more, averaging 6.2 rush attempts per game across his last five contests, after averaging only 4.25 rushes per game in the Cowboys’ first four weeks. Only the Saints, Bucs, and Bengals have allowed more fantasy points per game to quarterbacks than the Falcons, with only the Bucs allowing more passing touchdowns. The Falcons have also allowed the fourth most rushing yards to the position. Dak has encouragingly accounted for two or more touchdowns in four consecutive games.

Dallas continued to heavily feature Amari Cooper last week, feeding him 10 targets one week after giving him eight looks. Against the Eagles last week, the Cowboys used Cooper on some of the sideline routes that have worked well against the Falcons this year, creating optimism for his outlook in this game. The targets appear set to remain — and as long as they do, his floor looks secure; and while the Cowboys have been a bottom 10 team in red zone touchdown rate, they get a scoring boost in this spot vs the third worst red zone touchdown defense.

Behind Amari, Cole Beasley continues to operate in a low-upside possession role (only two games all year north of 56 yards). Michael Gallup (target counts of six and three since Amari arrived) and Allen Hurns (target counts of one and two with Amari on the team, with only 15 snaps played last week) are afterthoughts. Geoff Swaim returned last week to post his standard three targets.

COWBOYS RUN OFFENSE

While targets have been down for ancillary pass catchers behind Amari, targets have held steady for Ezekiel Elliott, who has seen at least four looks in all but one game this season, and who has recent target counts of 6 // 5 // 7. Since Week 3, Zeke has only one game below 21 touches, and he has gone for 25 or more touches in four of his last six games. This week, he’ll take on an Atlanta defense that has allowed the most running back receptions in the league, with the second worst YPC allowed and the third most running back touchdowns allowed. It should be noted that Zeke has topped 36 receiving yards only twice this season, as the Cowboys are not proactively scheming him Upside looks — while Atlanta is decent after the catch against running backs. But even with that, this is a great spot for a 100-yard, multi-touchdown game from Zeke, with a spike in pass game involvement along the way — as long as Dallas is able to keep this game close enough to continue leaning on the run throughout.

FALCONS PASS OFFENSE

Dallas has really not been all that fierce against the pass — allowing the fourth highest completion rate in the league, while ranking middle of the pack in yards allowed per pass attempt and picking off the third fewest passes in the NFL. But for whatever reason, teams have been choosing to avoid the Cowboys through the air, with only four teams facing fewer pass attempts on the year than the Cowboys, while 16 teams have faced more rush attempts. I have not been able to find any clear reason for this run-leaning tilt against Dallas — especially as they have been great against the run, allowing the third fewest yards per carry in the league. With Atlanta ranking fourth in the NFL in pass play rate, there is a solid chance that the Falcons dip away from the standard approach against the Cowboys and hammer this matchup through the air. The Eagles did this last week against the Cowboys (74.19% pass play rate, compared to the 55.96% rate the Cowboys have faced on the year), and Carson Wentz managed to pile up 360 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns on 44 attempts. While I never like to try to guess what Steve Sarkisian is thinking, there is some serious appeal to fading the low season-long passing numbers vs the Cowboys and instead recognizing that Dallas has been a middling unit, and that it makes sense for Atlanta to attack in the way they feel most comfortable.

The 52 pass attempts Matt Ryan threw last week against the fast-paced Browns are outside his normal range, but he did have exactly 38 to 41 attempts in five weeks leading up to that game — and if Atlanta wisely chooses to stick to their standard approach and attack through the air, something in this range is likely again.

Julio Jones has seen nine or more targets in six consecutive games, with 12 or more in half those games — and last week, he saw three targets inside the 10-yard-line, after seeing only two such targets all season. While that could be a one-game blip, we saw this happen in late October last year, and Julio’s red zone role remained on the rise the rest of the season. Julio carries strong floor and ceiling even without a red zone role, given his volume, his talent, and his ability to score from anywhere on the field, but a rise in red zone usage will make him that much more likely to explode a couple times down the stretch.

Behind Julio, Calvin Ridley has topped six targets only twice this year, but he has fallen shy of five targets only two times as well, giving him a comfortable range of usage in a high-powered offense. Consider Ridley’s floor to be around 4-40-0 in this spot, but his ability to score from inside or outside the red zone does provide upside.

Mohamed Sanu popped for eight targets last week, though he still failed to top 50 yards for the seventh time in nine games, and those looks came with Ryan throwing 52 times. Sanu will likely score one or two more touchdowns this year, but these end zone visits will be unpredictable, and he’ll be a disappointment most weeks he does not provide a touchdown.

This is a good spot for Austin Hooper, who has six games of two to five targets…and three games of double-digit targets. Those double-digit games came against Pittsburgh, Tampa, and Cleveland — all of whom rank in the top eight in most receptions allowed to the position. Dallas has allowed the fifth most receptions to tight ends, and this could be another “checkdown to Hooper” game for the Falcons’ passing attack.

FALCONS RUN OFFENSE

The Cowboys are allowing only 3.56 yards per carry to running backs this year, and only five teams have allowed fewer rushing yards to the position. Their six touchdowns allowed to running backs is the eighth best mark in the league.

Tevin Coleman has not topped 13 carries in any of his last five games, making him a thin play from a volume perspective, as he continues to share time with Ito Smith (recent carry counts of 11 // 7 // 10 // 4). On a more encouraging note: these two have combined for 9.5 targets per game across their two contests since the bye, after averaging only 3.67 combined targets per game the previous three weeks. The Cowboys are attackable through the air with backs, so there is room for another four to seven looks for Coleman and another two to five for Ito.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Dak and Amari are an interesting tourney stack, and Amari is in play on his own this week — with a clear case available for him even in cash games, given the likely flow of this game and the sheer volume we can count on in this spot. (Amari is much easier to like on DraftKings and FantasyDraft than he is on FanDuel, where the gap between Amari and the top guys — Julio // Hopkins // OBJ — is much smaller.) I also like Zeke quite a bit on this side of the ball, as it’s difficult to see him falling shy of 17 DraftKings points and 14 FanDuel points in a “20th percentile scenario” (around 80 rushing yards, and 6-30-0 through the air), while he has a clear shot to add plenty of additional yards and scores from there.

Matt Ryan has quietly been playing at a near-MVP level, with 300+ yards in six of his last seven games (he had 285 yards in his other game in that stretch), and with recent passing touchdown totals of 5 // 3 // 1 // 3 // 1 // 4 // 2. He has accounted for three or more touchdowns in four of his five home games, and this is a sneaky winnable spot if the Falcons indeed lean pass-heavy.

A Ryan-to-Julio stack looks good in that context, as Julio should be a lock for another nine to 12 targets, with potential for an increased red zone role along the way. These two may not quite be necessary in cash games, as there are slim volume concerns in this game, and there is a slim chance the Falcons lean toward the run — but I like this play a lot in tourneys, and I would feel comfortable with it in cash myself. I’m unlikely to have interest in Sanu or Ridley (outside of a possible large-field dart on the upside of Ridley), but Hooper may be a viable piece again this week. I hate to bet on a guy whose targets are so unpredictable, but he doesn’t kill you when he sees only four or five looks, and he carries potential for double-digit targets again in this spot.

I won’t be on the Falcons’ backfield, as I’ll be looking for higher-floor plays at that position — but if the pass game involvement remains from these guys, there are certainly paths for one of them to hit, with Coleman in the lead between the two.

TEXANS // REDSKINS OVERVIEW

The first place, 6-3 Texans will travel to Washington, D.C. this week to take on the “find a way to win” Redskins, who sit at 6-3 as well — in first place in the NFC East — in spite of ranking 26th in the NFL in yards per game and 27th in points per game. Washington does not even have that great of a defense (17th in DVOA against the pass, 28th in DVOA against the run; 17th in yards allowed per game), but they have been solid in the red zone (seventh in lowest opponent red zone touchdown rate), they have controlled the clock (third in time of possession), and they have allowed the fourth fewest points per game by ranking fourth in the NFL in takeaways and first in fewest giveaways.

Standing in the way of Washington’s standard game plan is a Houston defense that ranks second in yards allowed per carry, and a Houston offense that is scoring a respectable 24.0 points per game. There is a chance that Washington will be forced to the air more than normal in this spot. Of course, it seems that every time we say this, this team finds a way to take (and hold) a lead all game, and to keep the clock running with a non-aggressive offensive game plan.

Vegas has low expectations in this spot, with an early-week Over/Under of 42.5. Four of the Redskins’ last five games have finished below this mark, and four of the Texans’ last five games have finished below this mark as well.

TEXANS PASS OFFENSE

As noted throughout the season: Washington forces one of the lower aDOTs in the league — currently shaving 7.2% off the league-average rate — but they are otherwise unimposing against the pass, allowing a slightly above-average catch rate and an above-average YAC/R rate. They rank middle of the pack in yards allowed per pass attempt and middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. They are decent at generating pressure, and they have picked off a respectable nine passes on the year (11th most in the NFL), but they are ultimately nothing more than a league-average matchup — with the matchup boosted a bit by the fact that Washington faces the third highest opponent pass play rate on the season, as teams tend to avoid Washington’s front on the ground.

This final element could be a nice boost for Deshaun Watson and company this week, as Houston enters this game ranked 29th in pass play rate — with Watson incredibly held to 25 or fewer pass attempts (not a typo) in four consecutive games. There were extenuating circumstances in all four of those wins that contributed to the low passing volume — but realize that pass-heavy teams like the Vikings, Packers, Falcons, and Bucs do not find themselves with four random games below 26 pass attempts. It takes a team that is willing to lean on the run for this to happen. With Washington unlikely to push Houston on the scoreboard, something like 32 pass attempts may be a safe “80th percentile” ceiling projection for Watson. Watson has also added five or more carries of his own in all but two games this year, adding some floor to his line.

The low passing volume has had an adverse effect on volume for DeAndre Hopkins, as he has seen recent target counts of 6 // 8 // 7 // 12, after seeing double-digit looks in each of the Texans’ first five games. With that said: those three ultra-low volume games came against Tre’Davious White, Jacksonville, and Xavien Howard — and against a Washington team that pushes opponents toward the air, Hopkins should be able to clear a path to at least eight or nine targets, with plenty of upside for more. While Nuk’s targets are less locked-in than Julio’s at the high end of the price range, his 12 targets inside the 10-yard-line rank first in the NFL, allowing him to keep pace in the box score. If his targets jump back up to double-digits, he has potential to land a true difference-making score on the slate.

Behind Hopkins, it will be Demaryius Thomas and Keke Coutee — creating some question marks on workload distribution, as we have yet to see these two on the field together. Something like four to seven targets apiece is a fair projection, as the Texans focus their targets heavily on the wide receiver position (Lamar Miller and Alfred Blue have combined to average only 3.25 targets per game across the last four Texans games, while the tight end trio of Ryan Griffin, Jordan Akins, and Jordan Thomas has combined to average 4.25 targets per game in this stretch). Demaryius should be primarily used downfield, giving him a lower floor but a higher ceiling, while Coutee should soak up some solid floor underneath, while needing a broken play or a short touchdown in order to post ceiling.

TEXANS RUN OFFENSE

Washington has not been terrifying against the run — ranking 14th in yards allowed per carry, while ranking 28th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards and 29th in DVOA — but teams continue to avoid this front on the ground. When it has mattered, this team has been able to clamp down — as exemplified by the 15-33-0 line they held Ezekiel Elliott to in Week 7. Only Philadelphia has faced fewer rush attempts than Washington, and only four teams have allowed fewer rushing yards.

Lamar Miller will continue to operate as the head of the committee here, with recent carry counts of 15 // 22 // 18 // 12 (compared to 7 // 8 // 15 // 15 for Alfred Blue). Miller has five games already this year under 50 rushing yards, while adding totals of 68 // 98 // 100 // 133 in his other contests (the 133 came against the pathetic Dolphins run D). Blue has yet to top 46 rushing yards in a game this year, and he has zero targets across his last three games. Either guy will likely need one or two touchdowns or a couple broken plays to become relevant.

REDSKINS OFFENSE

Houston’s pass defense has continued to improve throughout the season, and they are now shaving 6% off the league-average aDOT while allowing a below-average catch rate and below-average YAC/R marks — leading to the sixth lowest yards allowed per pass attempt in the league. Only four teams are allowing fewer fantasy points per game to the quarterback position.

Alex Smith has topped 200 passing yards in only one of his last five games — with that one game coming against an Atlanta team that smashed Washington 38-14, forcing them to the air an uncharacteristic 46 times. For as long as this game remains close, Washington will stick to their run-leaning ways, even in a tough spot for Adrian Peterson.

Chicago is the only team allowing fewer yards per carry than the Texans — and while Houston has allowed eight total touchdowns to running backs, a massive five of these have come through the air (the second most in the league), while only three have come on the ground (third fewest in the league). With this game likely to stay fairly close, Peterson should see his 18 to 22 touches, but in a tough matchup with a limited role in the pass game (8.0 receiving yards per game across his last four contests), he’ll need some broken-play luck or a multi-touchdown game to matter.

Through the air:

We have yet to see Josh Doctson top 50 yards; Maurice Harris has topped 52 yards once; Michael Floyd went 2-15-0 on three targets last week; Vernon Davis continues to play around half of Washington’s snaps and see the only real “Upside Looks” on this team, but his targets are unpredictable; and Jordan Reed has continued to see steady targets, but Washington is flattening out his routes and giving him little room for upside, which has him at 65 or fewer yards in every game this year (and at 51 or fewer in six straight games), with only one touchdown all season. If forced to go here, Reed is the safest, highest-upside play vs a Texans team that has allowed only six touchdowns all year to wide receivers (the second lowest mark in the league), but that has given up four touchdowns to tight ends (the 10th most in the league).

If Chris Thompson returns this week, he’ll be more appealing than the pieces above, but he’ll still take a backseat to Peterson unless this game turns pass-heavy. If Jamison Crowder returns, he’ll kick Maurice Harris to the outside, and will set up for something like four to seven underneath targets.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

There is nothing on the Washington side of the ball that catches my eye, and the Houston backfield is easy to stay away from as well. For that matter: the low scoring environment in this game as a whole even takes down the Houston passing attack a few pegs — making them “viable and in play,” but certainly not a unit to lock-and-load. With that said: I do like the matchup for Hopkins quite a bit — with a safe floor even if the Texans limit passing volume, and with a ceiling as high as any receiver on the slate if he can climb back up to 12 to 14 looks once again in this spot. I like Watson as a tourney play for his upside (both with and without Hopkins), and I see Demaryius and Coutee as “guys to consider,” but not guys to prioritize. There are better overall offensive environments on the slate, but this is still a matchup that Watson and Hopkins can win — and there may be enough momentum for them to carry one of Demaryius or Coutee with them.

BUCCANEERS // GIANTS OVERVIEW

And this is why the NFL quietly loves fantasy football. Who besides fans of these teams would have interest in this game without fantasy? This game pairs a 2-7 Giants team with a 3-6 Bucs team — with the Bucs on a 1-6 stretch after incredibly starting the season with wins over the Saints and Eagles, and with the Giants coming off their first win in nearly two months. The Giants have been quietly competitive all year — losing by five points to the Jags, by seven points to the Cowboys, by two points to the Panthers, by three points to the Falcons, and by seven points to the Redskins — but their offense has not done them many favors, as they have failed to top even 15 points in four of their nine games, and they have topped 20 points only three times all year.

Of course, this will be an opportunity for the Giants to break out of this funk against a Tampa team that has allowed the most points per game and the fifth most yards per game in the NFL, while giving the ball away more times than any other team in football and taking the ball away the second fewest times in the league.

In spite of their parade of mistakes, Tampa continues to produce on offense — ranking first in the NFL in yards per game, while ranking 12th in points per game. The offensive environment as a whole in this game is ripe for production, as the Giants rank first in the league in pass play rate and the Bucs rank fifth, which should lead to plenty of clock stoppages, and to volume piling up on both sides of this game. Each team has battled issues in the red zone on offense (Tampa ranks 21st in red zone touchdown rate; the Giants rank 30th), but the Giants should have an easier path than normal when they crack the 20, as the Bucs have had the worst red zone defense in the NFL this year. The Giants surprisingly boast the third stingiest red zone defense, which could create a few additional issues for Tampa. The Bucs may continue to pile up yards while remaining less spectacular at actually scoring points.

Vegas has put plenty of faith into the Bucs’ strong offense and their awful defense, pegging this game with an early-week Over/Under of 52.0 — second highest on the Main Slate. Six of the Bucs’ nine games have exceeded this total, while only one of the Giants’ nine games has risen above this mark.

BUCCANEERS PASS OFFENSE

The Giants have been a middling defense this year, ranking 22nd in yards allowed per game and 20th in points allowed per game, while holding opposing passing attacks to the 12th lowest yards per pass attempt and the second fewest passing touchdowns, but notching the second fewest sacks and the ninth fewest interceptions along the way. Only one team has allowed fewer red zone receptions to wideouts than the Giants have allowed, and the best way to strike against this team through the air is with guys who can hit bigger plays.

The fun continued last week for “Tampa QB,” with Ryan Fitzpatrick going for 406 yards…with zero touchdowns, two picks, and one fumble lost. Helping to somewhat protect Fitz from in-game benchings is the fact that Jameis Winston’s 2019 salary is guaranteed for injury only — meaning that the Bucs can move on from him without any cap hit if they can keep him healthy through the remainder of the year. Fitz has incredibly thrown for 400+ yards in four of his five start-to-finish games, and “Tampa QB” has topped 365 yards in seven of nine games. While Fitz threw zero touchdowns last week, he notched three or more touchdown passes in each of his other four start-to-finish games.

As always, the biggest issue in targeting Tampa pass catchers is the number of weapons to whom they spread the ball, with all of Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, Chris Godwin, Adam Humphries, and O.J. Howard commanding targets each week.

Evans has been a massive disappointment the last two weeks, hauling in four of 16 targets for 67 yards. He has double-digit targets in five of nine games this year, with four games of 100+ yards (including three games of 137 or more), and with four touchdowns in all. He also has four games under 60 yards and three games with three or fewer receptions. He has smashed in some difficult matchups and fallen apart in some good matchups. Consider him a volatile play in a matchup that yields low touchdown upside on paper for wide receivers…but with plenty of upside stored in this play as well.

Speaking of volatile plays: DJax has five games this year with four or five targets…and another four games with eight or nine looks. He has failed to crack even 80 receiving yards in five straight games (with only one touchdown in this stretch), but he also showed the high end of his range early in the year, with three touchdowns and three 100-yard games in his first four contests. His floor/ceiling remains in the same range it has been in all year.

Godwin has six or more targets in four of his last five games, but his primary function in this offense is to take shorter-area targets while Evans and DJax work deep. Last week was only the second time all year Godwin cracked 60 yards. As noted all season: his red zone role (nine targets inside the 10 — third most in the league) does give him upside. Naturally, the Giants’ stout red zone defense will make it more difficult to hit that upside.

Humphries will need another unpredictable multi-touchdown game to return more than floor value.

Howard continues to be underutilized (two targets last week — his sixth game already with four or fewer looks), but he carries big upside on his limited looks. The Giants are a middling tight end matchup.

BUCCANEERS RUN OFFENSE

While the Giants have allowed only seven total touchdowns to tight ends and wide receivers, they have given up 13 total touchdowns to running backs — the third most in the league. Otherwise, the Giants have been simply middling against backs — creating an interesting setup for a Bucs team that features the running back position less than any other team in football. Positive running back matchups this year have really done nothing for the box score results of the Bucs’ backs.

Last week, with Ronald Jones on the sidelines, the Bucs gave 33 running back snaps to Peyton Barber, 26 to Jacquizz Rodgers, and 10 to Shaun Wilson. Barber has yet to top 85 rushing yards in a game this year, and he has only one game with more than nine receiving yards. Wilson was a non-factor, with three touches and three yards. The biggest factor was Quizz, who saw only one carry, but who turned eight targets into an 8-103-0 line through the air. This was a fluky output, with Quizz failing to top even 25 receiving yards in any other game this year.

GIANTS PASS OFFENSE

As noted recently: the closest comp for the Tampa pass defense is the Atlanta pass D, as each team attempts to force shorter passes and tackle well after the catch, but each team is getting burned by their high catch rate allowed. Entering this week, Tampa ranks 32nd in completion percentage allowed (Atlanta ranks 30th), and Tampa ranks 29th in yards allowed per pass attempt (Atlanta ranks 27th). Tampa is especially suffering from their lack of pass rush (23rd in sacks; Atlanta ranks 28th), and they are a great setup for Eli Manning, who is working with the best completion rate of his career, but is failing to get anything going downfield. As we noted when the Giants played Atlanta in Week 7: this type of matchup is perfect for the 2018 version of Eli. In that spot, he threw for 399 yards — though he disappointingly notched only one touchdown. Even against a Tampa defense that ranks 32nd in opponent red zone touchdown rate (Atlanta ranks 30th), there will be at least slight concerns that this passing attack will struggle to push the ball into the end zone.

With all the jokes that can be made about the Giants this year, one thing to their credit is their usage of Odell Beckham, who has seen at least nine targets in every game this year, and who has double-digit looks in seven consecutive games. Beckham has 100+ yards in each of the five games in which he has caught eight or more passes — and in a pace-up spot against a pass-heavy (volume-producing) opponent that allows the highest catch rate in the NFL, eight or more catches is a fairly safe bet. Beckham quietly ranks fifth in the NFL in red zone targets. The Giants rank 30th in red zone touchdown rate, but they get a boost against the worst red zone defense in football.

Beckham is the clear alpha among wide receivers and tight ends on this team, with 45.33% of the team’s air yards (the second highest mark in the NFL), and with eight games of double-digit targets compared to one such game for the rest of this pass catching corps. The best bet behind him is Sterling Shepard, who has seven or more targets in all but two games this season — and whose aDOT of 9.3 is only a couple clicks behind Beckham’s mark of 10.9. Shepard lacks the YAC upside of Beckham, which has left him shy of 50 yards in five of nine games, but he sees enough opportunities for some big plays to click in place. He has three touchdowns on the year (with only three fewer red zone targets than Beckham), three games of 75 to 80 yards, and one game (vs Atlanta) of 167 yards. He’s a modest-floor, solid-ceiling play.

Wrapping up this passing attack is Evan Engram, who has at least four targets in all five of the games he has played from start to finish, and who has scored a pair of touchdowns. He’s behind Beckham, Barkley, and Shepard for targets — but on the pass-heaviest offense in football, against one of the worst pass defenses in football, there will be some opportunities for him to hit.

GIANTS RUN OFFENSE

Tampa has faced the ninth fewest rush attempts on the year, as teams tend to attack this unit through the air — though this shouldn’t be much of a stumbling block to the value of Saquon Barkley, as the Giants already pass more frequently than any team in football, which has led to Saquon seeing target counts on the year of 6 // 16 // 5 // 8 // 4 // 12 // 10 // 10 // 5. Between the carries and the catches, Saquon has at least 22 touches in six of nine games this season (with only one game below 19 touches). The Bucs have, unsurprisingly, been below-average against pass-catching backs, and the Chiefs are the only team in football that has allowed more total touchdowns to running backs. Expect Saquon to pile up 22+ touches again, with plenty of yardage and touchdown upside along the way.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

While the Bucs’ passing attack always stands out to me in tourneys, Fitz is the only guy I would feel safe with in cash games this week — and there are probably quarterbacks I like more. The Giants have been strong enough in the red zone — particularly against the pass — that I don’t want to try to guess on individual pass catchers here, especially as this has already been a difficult group to nail down all season. With that said: there is always something to be said for building a few stacks around the Tampa passing attack in tourneys, as this group continues to find ways to produce upside most weeks. While this matchup sets up better for scoring upside in the backfield, of course, I’ll be leaving that component of the Bucs alone myself, as this backfield has been unrosterable all season.

On the Giants’ side, I like Eli, though there are quarterbacks with higher upside — and I like Shepard and Engram as decent point-per-dollar floor plays with strong upside for the price. The crown pieces on this side of the ball, however, are OBJ and Saquon. Each guy pops off the page to me early in the week as a strong play, with plenty of floor and ceiling in this matchup. With all the passing that the Giants do — and with all the passing that Tampa forces opponents to do — there will be lots of opportunities for these two to pile up receptions, and to pile up yards after the catch along the way.

TITANS // COLTS OVERVIEW

The “find a way to win” Titans are now sitting at 5-4 after their dominant home victory over the Patriots, and they will travel to Indy this week to take on a 4-5 Colts team that has won three straight since their loss to the Jets. This division is wide open, with the 6-3 Texans in the lead but carrying plenty of question marks of their own — setting this up as an important game for each franchise moving forward.

Indianapolis and Tennessee have gotten here in completely different ways, with the Colts ranking first in the NFL in pace of play while the Titans rank 31st. Early in the season, the Colts were also the most pass-heavy unit in the NFL, though they have leaned more on the run lately with the emergence of Marlon Mack. The Titans, unsurprisingly, throw the ball at the second lowest rate in the NFL.

Indy has the more attackable defense, as they rank 23rd in yards allowed per game and 26th in points allowed per game, while Tennessee ranks sixth in yards allowed and first in points allowed — on the strength of the best red zone touchdown defense in football. Tennessee has allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, they are one of only two teams that has not yet allowed a tight end touchdown, and their three touchdowns allowed to running backs is the best mark in the league. The Titans have been most attackable with wide receivers — allowing a middling mark of 11 touchdowns (with seven of these allowed by Malcolm Butler).

Unsurprisingly, Vegas has sided with the home team in this spot, installing the Colts as two point favorites. In keeping with a seeming theme in this week’s slate: this game has an aggressive Over/Under of 49.0 — a mark that no Titans game has topped all year…but that five of the last six Colts games have topped. The Colts have recently allowed 26 points to the Jags, 28 points to the Raiders, and 42 points to the Jets. They have scored 29 or more points in five of their last six games, and they quietly rank sixth in the NFL in points per game.

TITANS PASS OFFENSE

The Colts have tried to establish a Tampa 2 foundation on defense — relying on speed to get to the quarterback and force throws before the coverage breaks down. Much like Dan Quinn in Atlanta: Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus will take speed over size at every position except defensive tackle — and while this defense still needs some more pieces before they can be “good,” there are a few things they are doing well already, with no team in the NFL forcing a lower aDOT than this squad. Much like the Tampa defense itself, however, the Colts are allowing an enormous catch rate (Tampa is the only team allowing a higher rate of completed passes), which is still leading to the Colts ranking 25th in yards allowed per pass attempt, in spite of the low aDOT.

Downfield passing has not been a huge part of the Titans’ attack this year, with Marcus Mariota notching a middling average intended air yards of 7.8, and with alpha Corey Davis ranking third in the NFL in percentage share of team air yards in spite of an average depth of target of only 10.1.

Coming off the monster showing last week against New England (7-125-1 on 10 targets), it is worth noting that Davis also saw 10 targets in Week 9 against a Cowboys team that — similar to Indy — allows a big increase in catch rate. In that game, he went 6-56-0. Davis has seven or more targets in six of his nine games this season, with his dips below seven targets coming against Baltimore, Buffalo, and Jacksonville, so he is a very safe bet for seven or more targets, with something like eight to 10 looks his expected range. Given the high catch rate Indy allows, he’ll carry nice floor this week — though while upside is present, it is no guarantee.

Further solidifying Davis’ floor is the total lack of involvement for pass catchers behind him. Tajae Sharpe has topped four targets and 33 receiving yards only once all season; Taywan Taylor is on track to miss again, but even if he plays, he has not topped two targets in a month and a half; Cameron Batson went 2-36-0 last week on three targets in Taylor’s absence; and Jonnu Smith — in spite of back-to-back games with a touchdown — has not topped three targets in a game all season. (Indy has allowed the ninth most receptions and the seventh most yards to tight ends, if you want to bet on the idea that Jonnu’s role is still growing in this offense, which is not an outlandish idea.)

TITANS RUN OFFENSE

Although he disappointed in the box score last week, Dion Lewis played 49 out of 65 snaps for the Titans (75.4%), while Derrick Henry played only 14 snaps in a game the Titans controlled throughout — one week after playing only 14 of 70 snaps and ceding 59 to Lewis. Until further notice, Lewis is operating as the clear lead back on this run-heavy team.

Indy has been solid against the run — ranking 10th in adjusted line yards and seventh in fewest yards allowed per carry. The Colts have allowed only six total touchdowns to running backs (the eighth best mark in the league), though they have allowed the third most receptions to the position, creating opportunity for Lewis to carry strong floor in this spot (recent target counts of 9 // 4 // 2 // 6 // 4 // 2), with some yardage and touchdown upside mixed in.

Henry, of course, remains a “hope for multiple touchdowns” option, as he has yet to top even 60 rushing yards in a game.

COLTS PASS OFFENSE

Although the Titans have been tremendous in the red zone this year, they have been susceptible to quality receivers, with DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Alshon Jeffery, Tyrell Williams, and Julian Edelman all topping 100 yards against them, as part of a fairly soft passing schedule that has included games against the Dolphins, Jaguars, Bills, and Cowboys. With Tennessee playing such tremendous defense in the red zone, they have allowed the second fewest passing touchdowns in the league this year — which has put a cap on upside against them. But with Andrew Luck entering this game with an incredible three or more passing touchdowns in six straight games (including matchups against Jacksonville and Buffalo), there will still be opportunity for this passing attack as a whole to produce.

The issue in targeting this passing attack, of course, is that the yards and the touchdowns do not always match up on this squad. On the season, Luck has 26 passing touchdowns, but T.Y. Hilton (who leads all wide receivers on this team with 430 receiving yards) has scored only four of those touchdowns…while Eric Ebron has scored four total touchdowns across his last two games, in spite of playing only 38 snaps (28.6%) and piling up only six catches for 106 yards in that stretch.

Hilton has target counts of only 4 // 5 // 7 since returning from his injury (after seeing double-digit looks in each of his first three games on the year), and only eight teams have allowed fewer pass plays of 20+ yards than the Titans, making this a difficult spot for Hilton to hit for huge upside. Naturally, Hilton’s speed on the turf gives him a chance to hit in any matchup if the targets are there, but he cannot be considered a high-floor play at the moment.

Behind Hilton, Ryan Grant played only 28 snaps last week in his return from injury and saw only one target. If he returns to his early-season role, he’ll regain some possession looks, with a shot at going something like 4-45-0. He would need to regain his role and score a touchdown to truly provide value.

Dontrelle Inman saw another four targets last week but played only 18 snaps. Chester Rogers has back-to-back games of only one target.

Of course, this passing attack is flowing through the tight ends more than ever before, with Jack Doyle playing 48 of 55 snaps last week and Mo Alie-Cox outsnapping Ebron 23 to 21. Doyle has seven and three targets since returning and should be in line for five to seven looks in this difficult spot. Alie-Cox saw four targets last week, but it was the first time all season he had topped two looks in a game.

COLTS RUN OFFENSE

The Titans have been solid against the run this season, allowing a respectable 3.89 yards per carry to running backs while allowing the fewest running back touchdowns in the NFL. The Titans rank top 12 in fewest rushing yards allowed to backs, and only two teams have allowed fewer receiving yards to the position.

The Colts’ backfield belongs to Mack right now, as he has played 61.7% of the team’s snaps across their last two games, with touch counts across his last three contests of 21 // 27 // 14. Mack is steadily seeing two to four targets each game, which gives him a little more upside than pure “yardage and touchdown backs,” and his ability to score from anywhere on the field gives him upside as well. The matchup, of course, does not set up in his favor.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

On the Titans’ side, I like Corey Davis as a guy who doesn’t pop off the page, given the inconsistency of this passing attack, but who carries solid floor and a strong shot at upside. If he were featured like a true alpha, he has the talent to warrant a top-end price tag — so with double-digit target potential, he’s very much worth considering. Alongside Davis, Mariota is interesting as a salary saver with upside. The Colts’ zone-heavy defense is not conducive to big quarterback rushing lines (only four teams have allowed fewer rushing yards to the position), but the high completion rate allowed by the Colts opens opportunities for things to hit for quarterbacks. This offense wraps up with Dion Lewis — who doesn’t pop the way he did last week in a matchup that set up better for him, but whose workload (recent touch counts of 19 // 23 // 22) still makes him one of the more underpriced plays on the slate, at under 10% of the salary cap on all three sites.

On the Colts’ side: I see this passing attack as an interesting unit to “stack multiple ways” in large-field tourneys, as it is likely that one or two pieces hit given how well Luck has played lately. But with this team spreading around targets and this matchup setting up poorly for tight ends, it will be difficult to do more than simply guess on the right plays on this attack — likely leaving it out of Main Build consideration for me. As for Mack in the Colts’ backfield: I’ll likely mix him onto a few large-field tourney builds, as he is the kind of explosive player who can post a big game in a difficult matchup with a couple long plays — but he’s not a standout piece this week, with the matchup setting up poorly for touchdown upside and for production on the ground.

STEELERS // JAGUARS OVERVIEW

This game was originally slated for Sunday Night Football — with the schedule-makers naturally expecting this to be an important mid-season tilt for each squad. But while the Steelers have won five in a row and sit alone atop the challenging AFC North, the Jaguars have lost five consecutive games, and they sit in last place in one of the NFL’s softer divisions.

Frustratingly for Jaguars fans, this defense has still allowed the third fewest yards per game in the NFL — and even with the sacks falling off (Jacksonville ranks 27th in sacks), and the turnovers falling off (Jacksonville has the sixth fewest takeaways in the league), and the offense giving the ball away 19 times (the fifth most giveaways in the league), this defense ranks 10th in fewest points allowed per game. Only six teams are allowing fewer fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Only one team has given up fewer receptions to wide receivers. No team has allowed fewer yards or touchdowns to wideouts. The Jaguars have especially suffered from their inability to run the ball — and while that appears to finally be solved with Leonard Fournette back on the field, this may not be a great week for the Jags to shine in this area against a Pittsburgh team that has allowed the third fewest rushing yards in the league to running backs.

As for the Steelers: they have righted the ship on defense after a rough start to the year — now allowing the eighth fewest yards and the 13th fewest points per game, while tying for the league lead in sacks. On offense, Pittsburgh has been unsurprisingly spectacular, racking up the fourth most yards per game and the fourth most points per game in the league.

In spite of this game being played in Jacksonville, the Steelers have been installed as six point favorites, in a game with a healthy Over/Under of 47.0. This might be moving a bit too far into conjecture, but while the Jags have the talent to turn things around (it was no fluke last year that they reached the AFC Championship and should have reached the Super Bowl), “players’ coaches” tend to get more out of their players deep into a potentially lost season than hard-nosed coaches like Doug Marrone. While teams like the 49ers, Falcons, Seahawks, and Eagles are visibly continuing to play hard each week, teams like the Lions and Jags — teams with hard-driving coaches and a losing record — are starting to show lack of sharpness on Sundays. To be clear: every NFL player comes to play on game day; but without a strong week of preparation, it is difficult to generate results when the weekend arrives.

STEELERS PASS OFFENSE

Ten weeks into the season, there are only two teams in football that are allowing a lower catch rate than the Jaguars, and there are only two teams allowing a lower YAC/R rate as well. Only two teams have allowed fewer pass plays of 20+ yards than the Jags, and — as noted above — no team has allowed fewer yards or touchdowns to the wide receiver position. This week, the Jags return stud corner A.J. Bouye opposite Jalen Ramsey, creating a tough spot for Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster.

Those are the names to highlight, of course, as these two receivers have combined for over 63% of the Steelers’ air yards to date, with AB ranked fifth in the NFL in targets per game, and with JuJu ranked 13th — essentially creating a situation in which each guy is seeing a WR1 workload. JuJu has fallen below eight targets only three times, while AB has fallen shy of eight targets twice.

Those lower-target games for these two have primarily come in lower-volume games for this passing attack as a whole, with Ben Roethlisberger notching pass attempt totals of 29 // 46 // 36 // 47 // 25 during this winning streak. The lower totals came in blowout wins, while the higher totals came in close contests. While the Jags are slightly easier to attack on the ground, the Steelers played this team twice last season, and Big Ben notched pass attempt numbers of 55 and 58 — topping 300 yards both times, while throwing for zero touchdowns and five interceptions in one contest and returning with five touchdowns and only one pick in the playoffs.

In those games — as Ben sometimes does in difficult matchups — Brown was the locked-in number one option, with 19 targets the first time around (10-157-0 receiving), and with 11 targets the next time (7-132-2). With the Steelers also boasting JuJu and James Conner (not to mention Vance McDonald), and with the Jags trusting Ramsey, we are unlikely to see much of an adjustment this week from the Jags. There is no guarantee that A) Ben plays well in an early start on the road (which has long been his kryptonite), or that B) Ben continues to lean on AB so heavily — but if the looks are there this week as they were in this matchup last year, there will be some sneaky upside to target in this spot.

JuJu has carried the lower-upside role in this offense, with an aDOT of 9.0 to AB’s 10.6, and with an 80% slot rate that is limiting his opportunities for big, explosive plays. With that said: the relative weakness of this pass defense is in the slot, giving JuJu a shot at a respectable PPR day, with “broken play upside” for a bigger box score.

McDonald rounds out the main pieces on this passing attack, with recent target counts of 2 // 8 // 3 // 6 // 4. The Jags got smoked by “number two tight end” Eric Ebron last week, but they are still allowing an average per-game line to the tight end position of four catches for just under 52 yards, with six touchdowns allowed on the year. This is a below-average matchup for tight ends — but with no clear and easy way to move the ball on this defense, there are opportunities for tight ends to pop. Last year in the playoffs, Vance went 10-112-0 on an incredible 16 targets vs the Jags. That game finished with a score of 45-42 (an unlikely setup, given how well the Steelers’ defense is playing and how poorly the Jags’ offense is playing), but Vance should at least be mentioned and considered.

STEELERS RUN OFFENSE

All year when talking about the Jags’ run defense, we have been removing the sick 68-yard run that Saquon Barkley had against them in Week 1, as that was a run only Saquon is really capable of — and outside of that one run, the Jags are allowing only 3.61 yards per carry to running backs, which would rank near the very top of the league. The Jags have also been stingy through the air against running backs (fifth fewest yards allowed), and they have been stellar at touchdown prevention, with only two teams allowing fewer scores to the position.

With that said: the Ravens have also allowed only five touchdowns to running backs (same as the Jags), and they have allowed the fewest receiving yards to the position, with a YPC allowed to running backs of 3.63. As I pointed out on the #OWSChatPod the last time the Steelers played the Ravens: James Conner has a big enough role that he still warrants tourney consideration in tough matchups. As we note all the time on the site: a tough matchup lowers the chances of a player hitting his ceiling, but it does not make it impossible for a player to hit his ceiling. The matchup gives Conner a broader range than normal, with a lower floor than he typically carries, but his huge role (recent touch counts of 25 // 23 // 29 // 31, before ducking out early last week with only 14 touches) still gives him an opportunity to hit.

JAGUARS PASS OFFENSE

While a deep aDOT typically benefits an offense, it is by design that the Steelers allow one of the deeper aDOTs in the league, as this team likes to take away short, easy throws while getting pressure on the quarterback — a recipe for success so far this year, as the Steelers are tied for the league lead in sacks, and they have offset the deep aDOT with a below-average catch rate allowed and the lowest YAC/R mark allowed in the league. Add it all together, and Pittsburgh has allowed the fourth lowest yards per pass attempt this year.

On the plus side for opposing QBs: the Steelers’ offense typically generates enough explosive plays for opponents to have to attack through the air — and so far this season, only one team is facing a higher opponent pass play rate than Pittsburgh, while only five teams have allowed more fantasy points to the quarterback position. The Steelers rank middle of the pack in passing yards allowed, but only seven teams have allowed more passing touchdowns.

All of this is noteworthy for a quarterback in Blake Bortles who can paint some ugly box score masterpieces when forced to attack. Through nine games, Bortles has three absolute duds and another disappointing game…but he also has four games of 320+ passing yards (three games of 376+ yards), with at least two touchdowns in each of those games. If the Steelers jump out to a big lead, it won’t be surprising to see Bortles trip and stumble toward another big weekend. As a bonus: Bortles quietly ranks third in the NFL in quarterback rushing yards, and the Steelers have allowed the ninth most rushing yards to the position.

While it is easy to see that Bortles could sneak his way to a strong game if the Steelers take a big, early lead, it is more difficult to pinpoint where that production is likeliest to come from. Donte Moncrief (61 out of 76 snaps last week), Dede Westbrook (60 snaps), and D.J. Chark (44 snaps) are all clearly ahead of Keelan Cole at this point (Cole played only 22 snaps last week and 15 snaps in the Jags’ previous game), but targets have remained unpredictable. Across their last three games, these three guys have looked like this:

:: Moncrief — 10 // 7 // 4
:: Dede — 4 // 6 // 10
:: Chark — 7 // 5 // 2

In theory, the Steelers are most attackable in the slot (where Dede plays 92% of his snaps), but after getting smoked by Jarvis Landry, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, and John Brown to begin the year, this team has not allowed a single receiver to top even 82 yards across their last five contests — including games against Julio Jones, A.J. Green, and Tyler Boyd. The Jags’ pass game pieces are “guess and hope” plays.

Among sneaky “floor plays,” James O’Shaughnessy should be mentioned, as he returned last week to see six targets, after seeing target counts of 3 // 6 // 4 before missing a few weeks. The Steelers have faced the third most targets to tight ends and allowed the third most receptions, while giving up the eighth most yards. O’Shaughnessy played 53 out of 76 snaps in last week’s game (69.7%) — and while he doesn’t provide much upside outside of an unpredictable touchdown, he does provide a lot of savings on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, and a respectable score is not outside the realm of realistic possibilities.

JAGUARS RUN OFFENSE

The Steelers have been a middling unit against the run this year — ranking just better than average in yards allowed per carry — but because of what the Steelers’ offense is perpetually able to do, volume has been a concern against this squad, with Pittsburgh lowering the league-average rush attempts per game by almost 16%, and with only two teams allowing fewer rushing yards to running backs.

In better news for Fournette: he played 39 out of 76 snaps last week (51.3%) in his first game back, and he touched the ball a whopping 29 times on those 39 snaps — speaking to the Jags’ desire to keep him heavily involved.

While it may be challenging for the Jags to truly control this game, we should realize that Jacksonville was the run-heaviest team in football last season with Fournette healthy, and they threw the ball on only 53.4% of their plays last week in a loss (53.4% would rank 30th in the league). Fournette should rise up to around a 60% or 70% snap rate this week, and it won’t be surprising if he touches the ball 22+ times again, creating sneaky opportunity for him to post a solid box score.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Nothing on the Steelers jumps out to me for Main Builds — especially with several high-priced wide receivers and mid-to-high-priced running backs in better spots than AB or Conner; but given the aggressive nature of this Steelers offense, it is likely that they score at least three touchdowns, and it is likely that at least one of AB // JuJu // Vance // Conner posts a really strong game. All four of these guys are worth considering in large-field tourneys. As always: the time to pay up for a guy in a difficult matchup is when that guy still carries slate-winning upside. It’s not “likely,” but it would also not be shocking if AB or Conner posts the highest score at their position, and each should carry low ownership. JuJu and Vance are less likely to become “the top piece at their position,” but each guy still carries viable tourney-winning upside in this spot. This is an offense to consider taking some shots on if multi-entering this week.

I’ll have interest in Bortles in large-field tourneys — especially on any multi-entry rosters where I take a shot on AB, as a big game from the Steelers’ offense could lead to a big game from Bortles in return. I doubt I’ll try to guess on his wide receivers, as things have just been too unpredictable in that area, but depending on how the tight end position shapes up this week (and how value shapes up), I will have some interest in O’Shaughnessy as a salary-saver.

I do like Fournette this week at running back, though his price shot up surprisingly quickly on all three sites — likely making him more “under-owned tourney play with upside” than “core piece to consider.”

BRONCOS // CHARGERS OVERVIEW

The 3-6 Broncos come off their bye this week to travel to a 7-2 Chargers team whose only losses this year have come against the Chiefs and the Rams. This is not a bad Broncos squad (they beat the Seahawks in Week 1, and they lost by three points to the Rams, by four and seven points to the Chiefs, and by two points to the Texans) — but barring a magical turnaround, this team is playing for nothing but pride (and a new coach next year), while the Chargers are trying to secure their rightful spot in the playoffs.

Surprisingly, Denver has played at the sixth fastest pace in the league this year — hanging out on the far opposite end of the spectrum from the Chargers, who rank 32nd in pace and 24th in pass play rate. The Chargers are a slow-paced team that likes to lean on the run. The Broncos are a fast-paced team that would probably like to lean on the run, but that has been forced into a middling pass play rate due to the time they have spent trailing in games this year.

Teams have been happy to attack Denver on the ground (they have faced the seventh lowest pass play rate in the NFL), so we should expect the Chargers to land in their typical range once again. Philip Rivers has now gone five consecutive games without topping 27 pass attempts — and while most people confusingly continue to ignore this trend, we should realize that this is very much the way Anthony Lynn and the Chargers want to play: with strong defense, a strong run game, a slow pace, and a low-volume, high-efficiency passing attack. The Broncos have faced the seventh fewest pass attempts in the league this year, while facing the 13th most rush attempts. Unless Denver jumps out to a big, early lead, we should expect the Chargers to slow down the pace and lean on the run game yet again.

Vegas has installed the Chargers as early seven-point favorites, with an Over/Under of 46.5. This game may play a bit closer than that spread implies, but we should ultimately expect the Chargers to control this contest, and for the home team to dictate the way in which this game will be played.

BRONCOS PASS OFFENSE

The Chargers’ pass defense has continued to improve this year, as they have now forced the third shallowest aDOT in football, while allowing a below-average catch rate and only 15 passing touchdowns (only four more than league leader Tennessee). Along the way, the Chargers have ramped up their pass rush (their 26 sacks rank ninth in the league, only five behind the league leaders) — and after notching only eight sacks through their first four games, they have 18 quarterback takedowns across their last five contests. The one area where the Chargers have been below-average is in YAC/R rate, which has left this team middle of the pack in yards allowed per pass attempt. Ultimately, this is a downgrade spot for opposing passing attacks, but it is not a true “shy away” matchup if you want to hunt for places to attack.

If choosing to attack, the bad news is that Case Keenum has been remarkably inconsistent this season, throwing for 290 or more yards four times, but throwing for 222 or fewer yards another three times. He has thrown 10 interceptions through nine games (with only one game all year without a pick), and he has pushed only 11 passes into the end zone. Denver ranks 22nd in red zone touchdown rate, while the Chargers have allowed the fifth lowest red zone touchdown rate on the year.

Much like last year: the Chargers have been especially tough on wide receivers, allowing the sixth fewest catches and the seventh fewest yards to the position. The truth of this matchup may lie somewhere in the middle, as this team got smoked by the Chiefs in Week 1 and looked attackable in Week 3 against the Rams…while their stretch of strong play has come against the 49ers // Raiders // Browns // Titans // Seahawks // Raiders. Tajae Sharpe (of all players) is the only wide receiver in this stretch to top 100 yards — and he got there on volume, rather than on explosiveness, with none of his catches in this matchup going for even 20 yards. Realistically, the Broncos’ passing attack is in the same range as the teams listed above, lowering floor expectations across the board. Russell Wilson and C.J. Beathard are the only quarterbacks in this stretch to pass for two touchdowns against the Chargers. None of these quarterbacks threw for 300 yards.

The player likeliest to beat this matchup is Emmanuel Sanders, though Manny has become the possession receiver in this attack lately, with only six targets in his last three games coming more than 10 yards downfield. Sanders is seeing most of his looks within five yards of the line of scrimmage — though he does get one or two downfield shots each game, giving him upside if he connects. He has seen at least seven targets in all but two games this year.

Our boy Courtland Sutton unsurprisingly saw very little change in role with Demaryius Thomas gone — as Sutton has been used primarily as this team’s downfield weapon, and the Broncos seem hesitant to take him off these “upside” routes for the shorter-area stuff that Demaryius often handled. Sutton has four to six targets in all but two games this year, and his aDOT of 14.7 gives him upside on these looks. The Chargers have had some breakdowns this season on the back end — allowing the eighth most pass plays of 20+ yards — though Sutton is still reliant on Keenum for his upside to manifest.

Helping to cover the void left by Demaryius in the Broncos’ last game was Jeff Heuerman, who saw a whopping 11 targets against Houston, off of previous target counts of 4 // 7 // 4 // 5 // 0 // 5. Heuerman’s upside is dented by a basement-low aDOT of 5.8, but his YAC/R of 4.9 and his xYAC/R of 5.4 does provide some room for yardage. He’s unlikely to see 11 targets again this year, but something like five to seven looks is reasonable. The Chargers have allowed a very low 57.5% completion rate to tight ends (typically, tight end completion rates are higher than average), with rookie superstar Derwin James keying coverage for this squad, but it won’t be a shock if Heuerman posts a respectable line, and he has upside if everything clicks just right.

BRONCOS RUN OFFENSE

The Chargers have given up only five touchdowns to running backs (tied with a few other teams as the third lowest mark in the league), but they have otherwise been more attackable with backfields than they have been with wideouts and tight ends — ranking 20th in fewest yards allowed per carry, while allowing the eighth most receptions and the second most receiving yards to the position.

The good news slows down when we actually reach the Broncos’ backfield, as Royce Freeman is returning this week to what has been a three-way timeshare when all three backs have been healthy. Expectations with all of Freeman, Phillip Lindsay, and Devontae Booker active have looked about like this:

:: Lindsay — 12 to 14 carries // 2 to 3 catches
:: Freeman — 8 to 13 carries // 0 to 1 catch
:: Booker — 2 to 5 carries // 2 to 5 catches

CHARGERS PASS OFFENSE

Although the Broncos are no longer the fierce unit against the pass that they were in the past (22nd in yards allowed per pass attempt; 16 passing touchdowns allowed, against a middling eight interceptions), they do still boast a ferocious pass rush (their 28 sacks are only three behind the league leaders), and they have been attackable enough on the ground (the eighth most yards allowed per carry in the league) that teams have been content to lean on the run in this matchup. Barring an outlier scenario (i.e., the Broncos jumping out to a big, early lead), we should expect Rivers to once again stay under 30 pass attempts. His best bet for rising above this mark would be for play volume on the Chargers to spike unexpectedly. With the Chargers slowing down the pace and sticking to the run, they have piled up the second fewest plays per game in the league.

When Rivers does pass, his first focus is Keenan Allen — as even this low-volume stretch has yielded target counts of 9 // 6 // 5 // 10 // 9 for the Chargers’ top weapon. Naturally, Keenan’s low aDOT (9.4) has yielded yardage totals in this stretch of 90 // 62 // 72 // 124 // 57. With only two touchdowns all season and a tough matchup against Chris Harris in the slot (where Keenan plays over 50% of his snaps), he’ll have a tough time popping off for a big game.

With Keenan locked into first-read looks and Melvin Gordon adding target counts in this stretch of 4 // 4 // 4 // 6, there is little left to go around to other pass catchers, with Mike Williams seeing recent target counts of 4 // 4 // 3 // 3 // 0, and with Tyrell Williams going 3 // 4 // 4 // 3 // 6. Mike played only 26 snaps last week to 45 for Tyrell, making the latter the preferred tourney “upside” play. The Broncos — as noted all year — have struggled at times against speed-based deep-ball receivers. It won’t be a shock if Tyrell hits here, and his floor has been useful even in games in which he has failed to notch a touchdown or a big play.

CHARGERS RUN OFFENSE

While volume has been a concern lately for the Chargers’ passing attack, this has not been the case for the run game, as Gordon has been an absolute centerpiece this year — seeing touch counts during this low-pass-volume stretch of 23 // 20 // 17 // 23. As noted several times over the last few weeks: Gordon doesn’t quite have the touch ceiling of guys like Gurley and Conner, as this team is going to give some touches to Austin Ekeler before turning Gordon into a 25+ touch back — but he’s a good bet for 80 to 100+ yards on the ground and two or three receptions, while his red zone role (11 touchdowns on the year) gives him plenty of upside from there. The Broncos have allowed a 9.3% increase on the league-average yards per carry, and their nine touchdowns allowed to the position ranks middle of the pack (14th in the league). Denver has downgraded pass-catching production (seventh fewest receptions // seventh fewest yards to the position), but ultimately, this is a slightly above-average matchup for one of the most reliable backs in the league.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

The Broncos’ offense does not stand out to me at all in this spot — unsurprising, given that there are 13 teams with Vegas-Implied totals in the range of 22.5 to 27.5, and Denver is not one of them. I’m unlikely to have much (if any) interest on this side of the ball on my Main Build, and I may not even take any shots here in large-field tourneys, as it’s difficult to see a week-winning score emerging from this side of the ball. The likeliest bet for a week-winning score is Emmanuel Sanders, as he can pop for a big game when he connects on his deep shots, while providing floor with the rest of his looks.

I’ll also continue to leave the Chargers’ passing attack alone, as volume is just too important for me to want to slide over to a team that is unlikely to notch 30 pass attempts. The one player in this attack I have had interest in lately is Tyrell, who becomes an interesting “upside” piece in his price range in large-field tourneys — as a guy who doesn’t kill your roster when he misses, and who can outscore most of the other players priced around him if he hits. Adding him to a large-field roster that otherwise carries plenty of floor can be an interesting way to capture some added upside.

I’ll likely leave Melvin Gordon alone this week — not because I don’t like him (I like him plenty), but because I can target higher point-per-dollar upside in other spots at the running back position. This is an above-average matchup, but not a true “spiked-week” spot, and Gordon’s price (along with the availability of plenty of other quality running back setups at lower prices this week) will have him farther down my list. To rephrase that: I expect yet another strong game from Gordon — though at his price, I likely won’t be there myself, as there will probably prove to be better ways to build a quality top-to-bottom roster this week.

RAIDERS // CARDINALS OVERVIEW

On a slate with a lot of games to like, we also have a late game between the 2-7 Cardinals and the sinking ship, 1-8 Raiders. The Raiders have gotten here by ranking 30th in points per game and 21st in yards per game — with the fourth lowest red zone touchdown rate in football. The Cardinals have gotten here by ranking 31st in points per game and 32nd in yards per game. As a team, Arizona is incredibly averaging only 236.2 yards per game.

The Raiders will have a difficult time breaking out of this funk, as they not only appear to be checked out for the season (keep in mind that this is an offense that ranked top five in yards per game through the first few weeks of the year), but they also have to take on an average to above-average Cardinals defense that ranks 15th in yards allowed per carry, 21st in yards allowed per pass attempt, sixth in sacks, 17th in opponent red zone touchdown rate, and 18th in points allowed per game — in spite of allowing the largest opponent time of possession in the league.

Volume should be on the Raiders’ side here, as this is one thing they have done well on the year — allowing the fourth fewest opponent plays per game, while Arizona has allowed the fourth most opponent plays per game. Ultimately, that probably just means more time for tanking mediocrity for the visiting team, but it will open a few extra opportunities for crazy things to happen, and for someone on the Raiders to post a non-awful box score this week.

Vegas has encouraged us to ignore this game for the most part, with an Over/Under of only 40.5. The Cardinals have been installed as five point favorites — a testament to just how bad the Raiders are right now.

RAIDERS PASS OFFENSE

The Colts are the only team that has forced a lower average depth of target than the Cardinals this year (this team has shaved almost 20% off the league-average aDOT), but this shouldn’t bother Derek Carr too much, as his average intended air yards of 5.8 ranks dead last in the league. It is worth pointing out that a low average intended air yards does not guarantee low upside, as Drew Brees has the second lowest mark in the league, Kirk Cousins has the fifth lowest, and Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Tom Brady, and Ben Roethlisberger all rank bottom 12. The Cardinals have been below-average in yards allowed per pass attempt, allowing a 4% increase on the league-average catch rate and an 8.8% increase on the league-average YAC/R rate — but with no real after-catch explosiveness on this team and no ability to score in the red zone, Oakland is struggling to get much done. Through nine games, Carr has only 10 touchdowns — and seven of those came in two isolated games, giving him three total touchdown passes across his other seven contests.

Martavis Bryant is out with a knee injury, and Jordy Nelson (recent target counts of 4 // 3 // 4 // 3 // 1) missed practice on Wednesday with a bone bruise and may not play this week. Seventh-round rookie Marcell Ateman has been called up from the practice squad and would see time on the field if Jordy misses.

Brandon LaFell has carried a larger-than-expected role over the Raiders’ last three games, with target counts of 4 // 3 // 6, and with yardage totals of 39 // 20 // 47. Those numbers tell you what you need to know about his upside in this offense, but he could spike to six or seven targets if Jordy misses, giving him a bit of full-PPR floor at his price on DraftKings and FantasyDraft. A touchdown could turn him into a surprisingly useful piece.

This “attack” (such as it is) wraps up with Seth Roberts, who has yet to top 42 receiving yards in a game this year. Roberts has recent target counts of 4 // 2 // 3, with an aDOT of only 7.1 — though he could also rise to six or seven looks if Jordy misses.

Arizona has been tough on tight ends, allowing the sixth fewest receptions to the position. Jared Cook has fallen back to Earth after his hot start, with recent lines of 4-20-0 // 2-10-0 // 4-74-1 // 2-20-0 // 4-52-0. Cook did see nine targets last week with Amari gone. He has the clearest shot at upside on this side of the ball — though this upside comes with the low floor that is attached to this offense.

RAIDERS RUN OFFENSE

As noted throughout the year: Arizona is not actually bad against the run on a per-carry basis (they are actually a bit better than average), but they have allowed the third most rushing yards in the league to running backs and the third most touchdowns to the position by virtue of A) this team continually playing from behind, and B) this team being less intimidating on the ground than they are through the air. The Raiders are the only team in football that has faced a lower pass play rate than the Cardinals. No team has faced more running back rush attempts this year.

While this is the rare spot in which an Arizona opponent is not expected to be playing with a lead, this game should remain close enough for Doug Martin to see 15 or more carries. Martin has averaged 13 carries per game across his last three contests (all three of which were blowout losses), with 60.67 yards per game on the ground in that stretch, and with an average of two receptions for 22.67 yards. It won’t be surprising of Martin pushes for 100 scrimmage yards here, and he’ll have an outside shot at a touchdown in this spot.

CARDINALS PASS OFFENSE

The offensive coordinator change for the Cardinals has not had a major impact on box score production for Josh Rosen and this passing attack, as Rosen has thrown for 252 and 208 yards across his last two games, with a completion rate of 57.0% (with three touchdowns and three interceptions) — not too different from his 207.3 yards per game across his six starts, and his 55.8% completion rate on the year. In good news for Rosen: this is the easiest matchup he has had yet, against an Oakland squad that ranks 32nd in DVOA against the pass and 32nd in yards allowed per pass attempt. The Raiders are allowing the third deepest aDOT in football and the most yards after catch per reception.

YAC upside has been surprisingly thin for Larry Fitzgerald this year, with a YAC/R mark of only 2.5, and with an xYAC/R of only 3.3. For whatever reason, Arizona has been using Fitz on a lot more curls and sideline routes than on the “slant into space” routes he has dominated on throughout his career. With that said: Arizona has shown no ability to pull away from opponents this year, and new offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich has focused on tempo since taking over — allowing Rosen to rack up 39 and 40 pass attempts in his last two games. Fitz has recent target counts of 8 // 8 // 12 // 10, giving him a nice floor in this spot — to go with the upside that automatically comes from a matchup against one of the worst defenses in football.

Christian Kirk has been featured behind Fitz recently — seeing target counts of 7 // 6 // 7 // 6. While the Cardinals feed Kirk a few short looks each game, they have also been using him on passes 15+ yards downfield around three times per game — opening up some interesting “upside” opportunities against this poor Raiders secondary.

This passing attack wraps up with Ricky Seals-Jones, who continues to split time on the field with Jermaine Gresham, but who is running a route on nearly every passing play (last week, he ran 40 of a possible 47 routes, while Gresham ran only three pass routes all game). RSJ has at least four targets in all but one game this season — and while he has only one touchdown reception and has fallen shy of 20 yards in five of nine games, he does have three games of 50+ yards, creating thin optimism for upside. The Raiders have been average against tight ends — with Rosen and RSJ likelier to be the cause of a disappointing output here than the Raiders’ pass defense.

CARDINALS RUN OFFENSE

Oakland has been one of the best run matchups in the league for opposing backs — allowing an increase on the league-average YPC of 11.6% (trailing only the Falcons, Chiefs, Rams, Bengals, and Seahawks in this category), while facing the second highest rush rate in the league. On the season, only four teams have faced more rush attempts than the Raiders, and only three teams have allowed more rushing yards. Oakland’s defense has been quietly strong in the red zone — allowing the ninth lowest opponent touchdown rate — but Arizona has also been quietly strong in this area on offense, ranking eighth in the league in red zone touchdown rate while feeding David Johnson 20 carries inside the 20 (this ranks 12th in the NFL, but is only three carries behind the top five) and 12 carries inside the 10 (10th in the NFL). Arizona has only 16 touchdowns all season (third fewest in the league), but half of these touchdowns have come from DJ. The Raiders have allowed 11 touchdowns to running backs — the 10th most in the league. While the Raiders have allowed the fewest receptions to running backs, this is more a function of them facing so few pass attempts than of them being strong in this regard, as they have been one of the more attackable matchups on a per-play basis — as one of only three teams in football allowing more than 10 yards per reception to running backs, with three receiving touchdowns allowed on only 33 catches.

DJ’s spike in pass game usage last week was largely “non-schemed,” and only one of his receptions came at wide receiver, so a safe projection here is another four or five targets — the range in which he has been almost the entire year. But he does have 20+ touches in five of his last six games (with 17 touches in the other contest in that stretch) — and the matchup sets up nicely. Be aware of the low offensive projection for this team as a whole; but also be aware of the individual upside DJ carries if things break just right.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

The Raiders’ offense carries the lowest Vegas-implied total on the slate (by quite a bit), making them an easy unit to stay away from this week. If deciding to take a shot here: it’s not crazy to think that LaFell could prove to be a useful salary saver if Jordy misses, and it’s not crazy to take a shot on Cook. It’s also not crazy to think that Doug Martin could post a useful score — though as none of these guys are likely to post a difference-making score, I’ll almost certainly leave all of them alone myself. If going here in large-field tourneys, Cook is the likeliest bet for upside.

On the Arizona side, I probably won’t be prioritizing any play on one of the worst offenses in football — but Fitz stands out for his floor, Kirk stands out for his price-considered upside, and DJ is unlikely to fail, while another big game is certainly a possibility. All three guys will be in consideration for me — and while it appears that there is more to like in other spots, it won’t be surprising to find one or two of these guys sticking to my list deep into the week.

EAGLES // SAINTS OVERVIEW

While this is an exciting game in terms of name value, these two teams are in totally different places just past the halfway point of the season, with the Saints sitting atop the NFC at 8-1 with a tiebreaker in hand over the 9-1 Rams, while last year’s Super Bowl champion Eagles sit at a disappointing 4-5, with losses on their ledger to the Bucs, Titans, and Cowboys. Given that Philly plays in a division where the shaky 6-3 Redskins currently sit in first place, this is not a “must-win” for the Eagles, as their division will remain within reach even with a loss; but their task will get a whole lot more difficult if they don’t pull out a win here — creating what should be an aggressive, competitive atmosphere on both sides of the ball.

Each of these teams ranks bottom eight in pace of play, and these teams rank first and second in time of possession — setting up a situation in which there are essentially five fewer minutes in this game than either offense is used to (these two combine for a total time of possession on the year of 64:54). Each team is — unsurprisingly — good at controlling games, with the Eagles ranked fifth in plays per game and the Saints ranked ninth in plays per game. The Saints are also allowing the third fewest opponent plays per game.

This matchup has been awarded a massive Over/Under of 56.0 — an aggressive mark considering the Eagles have not had a game crack even 50 points this season, in spite of games against the Falcons, Bucs, Colts, Vikings, and Panthers. Five of the Saints’ nine games have cracked 56.0, so it will be on their offense to drive this score forward. The key for this game truly turning into a shootout will be the matchup between the Saints’ offense and the Eagles’ defense in the red zone, where each side ranks in the top five. If Philly’s defense holds up in the red zone enough times, this game could disappoint compared to expectations. If New Orleans is able to crack holes in the Eagles’ stout red zone defense, Philly certainly has the ability to respond.

EAGLES PASS OFFENSE

The Saints don’t do much well on pass defense, allowing the third highest catch rate in the league, with aDOT and YAC/R marks that are both worse than the league average. This has led to the Saints allowing the third highest yards per pass attempt, and their 19 passing touchdowns allowed is the eighth worst mark in the league. The Saints have allowed only four quarterbacks to pass for 300+ yards against them this year — but those four were “Tampa QB,” Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, and Jared Goff, while the five who fell shy of 300 yards were Tyrod Taylor, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Joe Flacco, and Andy Dalton.

Carson Wentz is very clearly in the same category as those first four guys, with at least 278 passing yards in each of his last six games — and with four games in that stretch at 300+ yards. Wentz has thrown for at least two touchdown passes in six consecutive starts.

The surest bet in this passing attack has been Zach Ertz, who has shocking target counts on the year — with only two games below double-digits (a game with nine targets against the Giants and a game with six targets against the Jags), and with games of 13, 14, and 16 targets already under his belt. At an aDOT of only 7.6, this isn’t quite the same as someone like Julio seeing 10+ targets every week, but this still provides strong floor with plenty of upside. While it’s dangerous to worry too much about matchup with Ertz, it is worth adding that this is a matchup we have been avoiding all season. The Saints have allowed the third fewest receptions to the tight end position, and they have allowed only one tight end touchdown. They have not yet had a matchup like Ertz, but they did allow the fewest catches in the NFL to tight ends last year as well, creating enough matchup flags to bump down Ertz’ floor a bit more than normal. (His ceiling, of course, remains in place.)

The Saints have been far more generous to wide receivers, allowing the fourth most receptions, the most yards, and the most touchdowns to the position. This is a strong spot for Alshon Jeffery, who has target counts this year (taking away his game against Jalen Ramsey and the Jags) of 9 // 8 // 12 // 10 // 8. Alshon is not a big yardage guy (the last two times he topped 100 yards were Week 4 against Tennessee…and a September 2016 game when he was still on the Bears), so there is more opportunity for him to disappoint in this spot than there would be for other top receivers — but he has 10 red zone targets and four red zone touchdowns in spite of missing the first three games of the year, and something like a 6-70-0 line is a pretty safe “floor” projection even if he doesn’t pop off.

It is going to be difficult to get a read behind these two, as Jordan Matthews surprisingly played 38 snaps last week, to 18 for Golden Tate. It is likely that we see this number at least flip-flop this week, which will leave us guessing how the Eagles plan to divide work between Tate and Nelson Agholor.

Last week, Agholor played 42 of his 55 snaps in the slot, so it is fair to expect him to continue occupying a large slot role — which should be enough for him to remain in the five to seven target range he has settled into over the last month. This role has not yielded much upside, with only one touchdown on the season and only three games north of 50 yards, but he does provide bargain bin access to a quality passing attack against the Saints.

We cannot expect a monster volume game from Wentz on an offense that slows down the pace and typically controls the clock — in a game against a New Orleans team that also slows down the pace and typically controls the clock — but something like five to seven targets is also a fair range for Tate, with obvious upside for more. There is also a chance he eats into Agholor’s looks and makes a push for double digits.

EAGLES RUN OFFENSE

New Orleans has been tremendous against the run — allowing the fifth fewest yards per carry and the fewest rushing yards in the league. Philly, on the other hand, has been fairly ineffective on the ground — ranking 23rd in yards per carry and 22nd in rushing yards on the year. Last week, this team continued to feature a three-way timeshare, with Wendell Smallwood playing 21 snaps, Corey Clement playing 18 snaps, and Josh Adams playing 19 snaps. Smallwood had five touches, Clement had six, and Adams had seven. It would take a sudden spike in workload or some incredible efficiency for any of these guys to be worth a roster spot at the running back position.

SAINTS OFFENSE

On a per-pass basis, Philly has not been a unit to attack this year, as they have forced the fifth lowest aDOT in the league, with a roughly league-average catch rate and YAC/R rate allowed — leading to the ninth lowest yards allowed per pass attempt. Philly’s 12 passing touchdowns allowed are the third fewest in the league. But with teams continuing to avoid the Eagles’ run defense (fewest run plays faced in the league for the second consecutive season), the Eagles have still managed to allow the third most receptions and the sixth most yards to wide receivers.

It will be interesting to see how the Saints attack here, as this team has plunged all the way down to 30th in pass play rate, with only the Seahawks and Titans throwing the ball less frequently on the year. The Eagles have not been great against the run, allowing 4.7 yards per carry (10th most in the league), so there is a chance the Saints choose to buck the league-wide trend and stick to their run-leaning ways.

On the surface, the safest way to play this backfield would be to lean on Alvin Kamara and his pass-catching role against an Eagles team that has allowed the fourth most catches and the ninth most receiving yards to backs, but before we go there, we need to revisit the workload distribution between Kamara and Ingram:

I’ve seen people treating last week’s game against the Bengals like a spot where “Ingram saw increased snaps because of the blowout nature of the game,” but he played 31 snaps to 34 for Kamara, pushing their season-long, game-by-game snap distribution to this:

Kamara — 31 // 39 // 38 // 41 // 34
Ingram — 36 // 35 // 23 // 34 // 31

Kamara has 67 carries and 24 targets in this stretch. Ingram has 63 carries and 13 targets. Each guy is seeing work near the goal line — but in keeping with the overall distribution, Kamara has the slight edge in that area as well. If the Saints decide to go pass-heavy, we likely see a little more of Kamara (or at the least, he likely gains a little more value than Ingram gains in that setup).

The great news for DFS is that regardless of whether the Saints stick to their run-leaning ways in this spot or instead turn to a more pass-heavy approach, Michael Thomas will be the first guy involved through the air. As noted ad nauseum in this space: Thomas — with his aDOT of only 7.6 — is going to have a tougher time than guys like Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, and even Odell Beckham of going for 100+ yards; but given his historic efficiency this year (89.7% catch rate) and his massive red zone role (his 20 targets in the red zone rank second in the league), he has plenty of opportunity to hit for a big game. Depending on how the Saints choose to attack in this spot, Thomas could see as few as eight targets or as many as 12 to 14. I’ll have my money on him landing on the lower end of that range, but there are certainly cases to be made on the other side.

This passing attack grows thin behind Thomas and the running backs, as Keith Kirkwood saw more targets (two) in his first game off the practice squad than Tre’Quan Smith saw last week (zero), while Ben Watson played only 29 snaps and now has recent target counts of 0 // 4 // 2. This game may land on the lower end of the volume range for New Orleans, but we at least know pretty clearly where that volume is going, as Thomas, Kamara, and Ingram will touch the ball far more often than any other players.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Carson Wentz has finished with 37 or fewer pass attempts in 14 of his last 18 regular season games, and this is a spot in which play volume should suffer a bit for the game as a whole, creating a scenario in which we need to keep volume projections in check for available targets on this team. If Philly gives their standard four to five targets to running backs, there may be about 30 looks to go around among Ertz, Agholor, Tate, and Alshon. I’ll guess about eight or nine targets for Ertz in a tougher-than-normal matchup, seven or eight for Alshon, and six to eight for each of Agholor and Tate (with potential for Dallas Goedert or even Jordan Matthews to steal two or three looks from this group). This won’t make any of these pass catchers “must plays” for me (especially with all the uncertainty that surrounds these projections, given how little we know about the way the Eagles plan to use Tate) — but this will certainly be enough action for at least a couple of these players to find some upside. Obviously, I’ll have strong interest in Wentz as well.

On the Saints’ side of the ball: I see this as more of a “four touchdown game” than the “five to six touchdown game” this team is capable of posting, as the Eagles have just been too good in the red zone for me to build rosters expecting this team to pop off for a truly monster score. With that said: we have a good idea of where those four touchdowns are going — with Thomas and Kamara likely to soak up at least three, with potential to combine for all four. Ingram is the player likeliest to spoil that two-man party, with a slim, outside chance of Drew Brees and Sean Payton dialing up one of their Josh Hill or “other non-fantasy-relevant” touchdowns. I like Thomas, but there are at least three high-priced receivers I like more. With Thomas carrying the highest price tag on all three sites, I’ll be surprised if he ends up on my Main Build, and I’ll likely end up with limited exposure in any multi-entry play I undertake. I also probably feel better about the volume on Saquon and even Zeke than I do on Kamara — though this one will be closer for me, with McCaffrey and Melvin also in the mix. As for Ingram: I’ll have to see where he stacks up against other plays in his price range when I read through the NFL Edge myself and begin building my Player Grid, but I imagine he’ll be an upside piece I will be considering. Finally: given how little the Eagles should be able to do on the ground, I like Wentz a bit more than Brees — but I would be perfectly happy to find either guy on my Main Roster this week.

VIKINGS // BEARS OVERVIEW

In a big game for the ultra-competitive NFC North, the 5-3-1 Vikings will travel to Chicago to take on the 6-3 Bears. These teams will meet again in Minnesota on the final day of the regular season, and there is a chance this division comes down to that game.

Since their embarrassing home loss to the Bills, the Vikings have gone 4-2, with their only losses coming against the Rams and Saints. The Bears, meanwhile, have won three straight since their 31-38 loss to the Patriots. The Bears are 6-0 against teams with losing records, while going 0-3 in their other games. The Vikings are 5-1 against teams with losing records, while going 0-3-1 in their other games.

Minnesota has played at the ninth fastest pace in the league, while the Bears have played at the sixth slowest pace. These teams also separate from one another in time of possession, where Chicago ranks sixth and Minnesota ranks 22nd. Only one team in football has thrown the ball more frequently than the Vikings, while only five teams have thrown the ball less frequently than the Bears.

While each team boasts a solid offense, there is a chance this game becomes a lower-scoring slug-fest. Chicago ranks first in drive success rate allowed, while Minnesota ranks third; each team also ranks top five in fewest yards allowed per game, while the Bears rank fourth in fewest points allowed per game (the Vikings rank 11th). Minnesota has really shined in the red zone, allowing the second lowest opponent touchdown rate in the league.

Vegas has given this game a moderate Over/Under of 45.5, with the Bears installed as early 3.5 point favorites at home. Only the Vikings’ games against the Packers, Rams, and Saints topped 45.5, though this is a good spot to drop a reminder that the Bears rank fifth in the NFL in points per game, and six of their nine games have risen above that early-week game total.

VIKINGS PASS OFFENSE

Chicago is strong against the pass — forcing a slightly below-average aDOT, while allowing a slightly below-average catch rate and tackling well enough after the catch. As the rare team that is above-average in all three areas, the Bears have allowed the third lowest yards per pass attempt in the league. This team leads the NFL in interceptions and sits only one sack behind the Packers, Chiefs, Vikings, and Steelers, who are tied for the league lead.

In better news for Kirk Cousins and company: the Vikings have a quick-out passing attack that is designed to minimize the impact of opposing pass rushes, while focusing on short passes — allowing this unit to somewhat neutralize the impact of the Bears’ strengths. From a DFS perspective: the Vikings are also the second pass-heaviest team in the NFL, and they are taking on a Bears team with a ferocious run defense that most opponents aim to avoid, leading to this defense facing the fifth highest opponent pass play rate. Volume should be on Cousins’ side — and when there is volume for Cousins, we know where the ball is going.

Taking away the Week 9 game that Stefon Diggs missed (a weird game to begin with, in that Cousins threw only 22 passes), Diggs and Adam Thielen have combined for 53.1% of the Vikings’ total targets. On the year, these two have combined for 67.0% of the Vikings’ air yards. In games the two have played together, target counts have looked like this:

:: Thielen — 12 // 13 // 19 // 12 // 10 // 13 // 10 // 7
:: Diggs — 6 // 13 // 10 // 15 // 11 // 4 // 15 // 11

Thielen ranks first in the NFL in targets per game. Diggs ranks sixth.

While the Bears are strong against the pass, the best way to attack them is with wide receivers. Only five teams have allowed fewer receptions to tight ends than the Bears, and only eight teams have allowed fewer receiving yards to running backs, but this team has been slightly below-average vs wide receivers, allowing the 11th most receptions and the 12th most yards to the position, on a middling completion rate of 63.3%. Expect double-digit targets for each of Thielen and Diggs — with Thielen carrying a much higher floor with most of his looks coming from the slot (and with so many of Diggs’ perimeter targets coming at the line of scrimmage to get the ball into his hands), but with Diggs carrying just as much upside.

Behind these two, Kyle Rudolph will likely stick to his typical range of four to six targets, in a difficult spot, while Laquon Treadwell (one touchdown on the year, zero games north of 50 yards) will continue to run into four or five targets per game given all the time he is spending on the field — but with almost none of these targets being schemed looks, making it difficult for him to hit for upside.

VIKINGS RUN OFFENSE

No team has been more difficult to run on than the Bears — and even with Chicago finally allowing their first running back rushing touchdown, their one rushing touchdown allowed to the position ranks first in the league, and their five total touchdowns allowed to running backs is the third fewest. Frank Gore is the only running back all season to reach even 60 yards on the ground against this team.

If you want to fade matchup in this spot: Dalvin Cook played 28 out of 49 snaps before the bye (57.1%), and he should be in for an increase in work this week — likely moving up to around 65% to 70%, with an outside shot at more. In his limited time on the field this year, Cook has been peppered with passes, seeing target counts of 7 // 5 // 0 // 4 in the games in which he has been active. Fourteen carries and six or seven catches would not be a shock here. Last week on 14 carries and six catches in this matchup, Kerryon Johnson managed only 89 total yards, but he provided strong value with two touchdowns. There are paths to a solid game for Cook on the Showdown if things break right. (Of course, there are more paths to a disappointing game.)

Behind Cook, Latavius Murray will clean up what’s left in the backfield, while possibly seeing the first crack at any goal line carries that materialize.

BEARS PASS OFFENSE

The Vikings’ defense has improved since their rough start to the season, and they have currently allowed the third fewest passing touchdowns in the league, while tying for the most sacks through the first 10 weeks. The communication issues that plagued this defense early have been taken care of, creating a below-average spot for opposing offenses.

Through the Bears’ first nine games, Mitchell Trubisky has shined in the box score in soft matchups (four games already this year of 300+ passing yards and three or more total touchdowns), while looking like a totally different quarterback in tougher spots (five games of 220 or fewer passing yards, with six total touchdowns across these five games). The four teams Trubisky smoked all ranked 20th or worse in DVOA against the pass. The five teams against which he struggled all ranked 11th or better in DVOA against the pass. Minnesota enters this game ranked 10th.

If fading matchup and betting on this well-designed offense, it is worth noting that only four teams have allowed fewer catches to wide receivers than the Vikings, only three teams have allowed fewer yards, and only one team has allowed fewer touchdowns. As noted a couple weeks ago before the Vikings’ game against the Lions: outside of the reputation-wrecking game against the Rams in which all three of Kupp // Woods // Cooks went for 100+ yards, the Vikings have not allowed any wide receiver to top even 81 yards (and it was Michael Thomas who hit that mark).

Meanwhile, the Vikings have allowed notable tight end lines of 5-90-0 (on nine targets) to George Kittle, 6-95-0 (on eight targets) to Jimmy Graham, 5-69-0 (on six targets) to Ricky Seals-Jones, and 4-42-1 (on seven targets) to Chris Herndon. Trey Burton has topped five targets only once all year, but this is a good spot for him to post respectable numbers on those looks, with an outside shot at his volume jumping up a bit.

At wide receiver:

Anthony Miller topped 50 yards for the first time all season last week, on the strength of a couple long catch-and-run plays. He is used almost exclusively in a possession receiver role, so he will need another couple broken plays to pop off in this spot.

Allen Robinson returned to the field last week after a three week absence and proceeded to be fed his second highest target count on the season (eight). Six to eight targets has been his range this year, and something like a 5-60-0 line is attainable on those looks, with upside for a touchdown or a broken play if things go just right.

Taylor Gabriel has taken a backseat lately (recent target counts of 4 // 6 // 5 // 3), and he has topped 52 yards only twice this year, with both of his touchdowns coming in a game against the Bucs. He’s a boom/bust play in a difficult matchup.

BEARS RUN OFFENSE

Todd Gurley is the only running back who has topped even 63 yards on the ground against the Vikings’ stout front (and he only went for 83 yards — the most any back has against this team all year), but the Vikings have had a few breakdowns in the pass game against running backs, giving up a 56-yard pass play to Kyle Juszczyk, a 55-yard pass play to Chris Ivory, and a 56-yard pass play to Todd Gurley, creating some hope for upside on the Showdown for Tarik Cohen. Cohen has played 59 out of 108 snaps the last two weeks (54.6% — outsnapping Jordan Howard in this stretch by three), even with the Bears controlling each game. Cohen has four games this year of seven or more targets, and another five games of four or fewer targets. He adds a steady five to six carries per game.

Howard has topped 14 carries only once in his last six games, and he has still not cracked 82 yards on the ground in a game. He has two total catches across his last six contests — making him the definition of a “yardage and touchdown” back.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

This looks like one of the most challenging Showdown slates of the season, with a very narrow distribution of work on the Vikings, and with very little to like on the Bears.

On the Main Slate, Thielen is the only guy who would stand out — and this week, I would likely have him below Julio, Hopkins, and Beckham. Diggs would be in play for his tourney upside. Obviously, both guys stand out on the Showdown.

Behind these two on the Showdown, we have Dalvin Cook ceding some work to Latavius Murray and taking on the toughest run defense in football, with a low-upside player in Rudolph in a difficult matchup, and with Treadwell yet to top 50 yards in a game all season. On the Bears’ side: the running backs will be taking on a defense that has only allowed Todd Gurley to top 63 rushing yards, and the wide receivers will be taking on a defense that has only allowed the Rams to top 81 receiving yards. You’re on your own sorting through “favorite plays” from this bunch.

Naturally, the quarterbacks are in play on the Showdown, as are the defenses. It won’t be surprising if the kickers outscore most of the skill position players on this “slate.”

CHIEFS // RAMS OVERVIEW

Play everyone…

I’ve had this game circled for weeks, and the lead-up has not disappointed, as the Chiefs and Rams each sit at 9-1, ranking second (L.A.) and third (K.C.) in yards per game, and ranking second (K.C.) and third (L.A.) in points per game. These teams are also ranked first (L.A.) and second (K.C.) in yards per pass attempt, creating opportunity for quick strikes, and for points to pile up. The Chiefs rank second in drive success rate on offense, and the Rams rank third. Only two teams have been worse than the Chiefs at preventing drive success rate. Everywhere you turn, this game sets up great for offense.

Unsurprisingly, Vegas has backed up this thought, with an unheard of Over/Under of 63.0. This game was originally slated to be played in Mexico City, but due to concerns about field conditions it has been moved to L.A. This should not impact much in this game, but it does remove altitude concerns that could have stirred up at least a bit of uncertainty. This game is all systems go now for each unstoppable offense.

CHIEFS PASS OFFENSE

The Rams have been an average matchup for passing attacks, ranking middle of the pack in yards allowed per pass attempt and allowing the 11th fewest passing yards per game. This latter mark has been driven by the Rams allowing the second fewest opponent plays per game — though the Chiefs strike so quickly on offense, this is not really a concern for them; incredibly, K.C. has run the eighth fewest plays per game this year.

Furthermore, matchup has not been a concern for Patrick Mahomes, as he has thrown for 300+ yards in all but two games, and he has accounted for at least two touchdowns in nine of his 10 games. Mahomes has produced four or more touchdowns five times already — including in games against the above-average pass defenses of the Chargers, Steelers, and Broncos. With the Rams merely middling in yards allowed and below-average in touchdowns allowed (their 19 passing touchdowns allowed is the eighth most in the league, and only eight teams have been worse at stopping opponents in the red zone), this is a great spot for the Chiefs’ passing attack.

Recent targets on the Chiefs have looked like this:

:: Tyreek Hill — 12 // 10 // 4 // 5 // 10
:: Travis Kelce — 9 // 5 // 10 // 9 // 7
:: Sammy Watkins — 4 // 7 // 9 // 5 // DNP

Analysis is obviously a bit wasted on Hill, as we know that he is prone to some volatility in his target counts, and we know that his downfield role introduces further volatility — but with that, it should also be noted that Hill and Mahomes have connected on an incredible seven of their 11 attempts of 20+ yards across their last five games. With the Rams likely to push things back-and-forth on the scoreboard, this is a great spot for the Chiefs to get aggressive in their deployment of Hill, opening more opportunities for him to hit.

The Rams have been below-average against tight ends this year, allowing the 12th most catches and the sixth most yards to the position. Kelce has finished below 78 receiving yards only three times in 10 games, and he has finished below five catches only once all year.

This passing attack wraps up with Watkins, who should return this week to take on the team that got rid of him in the offseason. Watkins’ role has started to really settle in place, as he has four or more catches and 52 or more yards in each of his last four games against “not Stephon Gilmore.” Watkins has “only” three touchdowns and “only” two games of 100+ yards this year (low marks in this offense, but strong marks for his price). It seems likely that Mahomes tries to feed him a couple extra looks this week.

CHIEFS RUN OFFENSE

The Rams rank last in the NFL in yards allowed per carry, and even with the Rams constantly playing with a lead, only eight teams have allowed more rushing yards to running backs this year. While the Rams have impressively clamped down on receiving yardage from backs (with the sixth fewest receiving yards allowed in the league), they have allowed the eighth most receptions to the position.

This is a solid setup for Kareem Hunt, who has recent touch counts of 15 // 20 // 21 // 18 // 18, and who has scored an elite 13 touchdowns on the year. Because Hunt rarely rises above 18 carries (he has done so only once all year — and has been at 17 or fewer carries in five consecutive games), and because he can sometimes fall out of the pass game (recent target counts of 2 // 6 // 6 // 6 // 2 // 2), he carries more volatility than is optimal at his price tag. But his red zone role gives him plenty of upside (fourth in the league in red zone carries; third in the league in carries inside the 10 and the five), and his attachment to this offense creates potential for true week-winning scores — a range Hunt has reached four times already this season.

RAMS OFFENSE

The Chiefs play aggressive man coverage with a strong pass rush (eighth in adjusted sack rate; tied for first in the league in sacks), leading to a middling yards allowed per pass attempt, and leading to an impressively low completion rate to wide receivers of 57.2%. As a man-heavy coverage unit, the Chiefs will be less susceptible than most opponents to the movement and misdirection of the Rams, and the loss of Cooper Kupp (ACL) will make it more challenging for the Rams to run the pick plays that they would like to use in a setup like this. While the Chiefs have allowed the fourth most wide receiver catches in the league, this has been due more to volume than to poor play, as only one team has faced more wide receiver targets. With the Rams ranked 28th in pass play rate and less likely than most teams to be chasing points all game in this spot, there is some cause for caution on Cooks and Woods, compared to what on-the-surface expectations look like in this game. The Chiefs have also — somewhat quietly — allowed the sixth fewest wide receiver touchdowns, in spite of not yet having played their bye.

Part of the reason the Chiefs have been so strong against wide receivers in the red zone is because teams can hammer this team on the ground. The Chiefs have incredibly allowed almost as many receiving touchdowns to running backs (six) as they have allowed to wide receivers (seven), while K.C. has allowed the second most catches, the most receiving yards, and the sixth most rushing yards to backs. No team in football has allowed more touchdowns to running backs than the 15 the Chiefs have allowed — an incredible six more than they have allowed to wideouts and tight ends combined. By now, you know about the otherworldly red zone role Todd Gurley boasts (by far the largest red zone role in the league). As crazy as it sounds: this is the best spot Gurley has had this year.

The last time Kupp missed time (most of Week 6, along with Weeks 7 and 8), Woods saw target counts of 10 // 7 // 7, while Cooks went 6 // 5 // 8. Gurley stuck to his normal range (5 // 5 // 7), and Josh Reynolds stepped up with target counts of 2 // 1 // 5.

Woods’ typical range is seven to nine targets, while Cooks’ typical range is eight to nine, and it is reasonable to expect them to stick to that range or perhaps see a small boost. Cooks is the player likeliest to take advantage of the Chiefs’ deep ball issues, while Woods is the player likelier to disappoint — though Woods’ role in the jet sweep run game (recent carry counts of 2 // 1 // 1 // 0 // 2 // 3) should benefit from the Chiefs’ man coverage, while either guy can pop with the ball in his hands.

Reynolds is unlikely to become a major factor with Kupp on the sidelines, but three to five targets is a fair projection, and there are scenarios in which he could go for more.

The Rams could also begin to get the tight ends more involved — though this team trusts Tyler Higbee far more in the run game than they do Gerald Everett, while Everett is the better receiving threat. This team has literally been charted with two plays all season with two tight ends on the field (by far the lowest number in the league), so we’re unlikely to see a big spike for Everett on a team that is focused first and foremost on the run. On whatever involvement the tight ends do see, the matchup is great, as the Chiefs have allowed the sixth most catches and the second most yards to the position.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

While the “anything can happen” caveat applies: If I were playing this Showdown slate, I would go 100% Gurley and simply bet on the best player with the best usage in the best spot, and I would mix and match other pieces with him from there — with a multi-entry approach that bets on various upside scenarios.

The players likeliest to challenge Gurley for the top score on the slate are Hill first and Mahomes second. Hill obviously carries a much lower floor. I wouldn’t put any other players on quite this same “upside” level, though there is a case to be made for Hunt.

The next level would be (vaguely in the order I like them — with price taken out of consideration) Goff // Hunt // Kelce // Cooks // Watkins // Woods — though you could rearrange the top three or the bottom three in any order, and I wouldn’t have a complaint. It is worth pointing out that most of your competition will simply assume this is a tremendous spot for Woods and Cooks (Kupp out, and a high-scoring game), so there is a game theory case to be made for betting on your knowledge that this is a tougher wide receiver matchup than most will realize — hoping that the macro truths of this matchup play out in the micro sample size of this single game, giving you an edge on those who moved around salary to fit these two. If I were on this slate with a multi-entry strategy, I would still have some of Cooks and Woods for their obvious upside, but I would aim to be underweight compared to the field.

Wrapping things up are Reynolds and the Rams’ tight ends, plus any other long-shot stuff you want to try. The kickers are also in play. Playing these defenses would likely be nothing more than lighting money on fire, but it is the NFL, and crazy things can happen.