Kickoff Sunday, Jan 26th 3:00pm Eastern

WFT (
21) at

Eagles (
26.5)

Over/Under 47.5

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>
  • Commanders LB Bobby Wagner (ankle) and OG Sam Cosmi (knee) did not practice Wednesday.
  • Eagles TE Dallas Goedert (knee) and C Cam Jurgens (back) were not present for Wednesday’s walkthrough.
  • The Commanders are on a seven-game win streak during which they have scored 30 or more points four times.
  • Jalen Hurts has attempted 20 and 21 passes in the team’s two postseason games.
  • Washington will need to continue their unreal offensive efficiency against a Philadelphia opponent that ranked first in yards allowed per pass attempt and fourth in completion rate allowed in the regular season.

How washington Will Try To Win ::

The Commanders finished the regular season ranked fourth in points per game (29.1) and have scored 30 or more points in four of their previous seven games, one of which came in Week 16 against the Eagles (36). That seven-game stretch coincides with a seven-game win streak to end the regular season and the Divisional Round. There’s no other way to put it: the Commanders are playing some really good football lately. They continue to take a more methodical approach to their offense, marching the field through long, sustained drives, while their defense has begun to generate more disruption. They will mix in deep passing to Terry McLaurin and Dyami Brown at non-negligible rates but the primary function of the offense is to string together long drives.

Austin Ekeler returned from a four-game absence due to a concussion in Week 18. Since that time, neither he nor Brian Robinson has seen more than 60% of the team’s offensive snaps. That tight timeshare has constricted in the team’s two playoff games, with Robinson leading the way with 53% and 51% snap rates, Ekeler checking in with snap rates of 47% and 37%, and Jeremy McNichols responsible for 14% and 17% snap rates. Robinson saw 15 opportunities in both games while Ekeler saw 12 and 10 (four targets in each game) and McNichols saw five total carries and no targets. That highlights how this team has deployed its backfield when all players have been healthy this year, with a strict timeshare primarily split between Robinson and Ekeler, with McNichols operating in a light change of pace role. Expect the team to start the game with the aforementioned timeshare, with Ekeler the likeliest back to see an increase in snap rate should the team be playing from behind. The Eagles have been one of the more difficult teams to run on this season after holding opposing backfields to 1.64 yards before contact per attempt (third fewest), 4.3 yards per carry (11th), and 17.2 fantasy points per game (second).

Pass-catcher snaps and roles have been fluid behind Terry McLaurin and in the absence of Noah Brown, with Dyami Brown and Olamide Zaccheaus taking turns being the apparent WR2. Things have seemed to settle on Brown as the preferred perimeter wide receiver opposite McLaurin, Zaccheaus as a utility slot-perimeter weapon, Jamison Crowder as a slot-only option, and Luke McCaffrey as the WR5. I expect Dyami Brown to continue his recent emergence as the preferred secondary perimeter option opposite McLaurin after he played a season-high 83% of the team’s offensive snaps in the Divisional Round. Crowder’s 40% snap rate from a week ago appears to have come at the expense of Zaccheaus considering 86.3% of Crowder’s snaps have come out of the slot since the team’s Week 14 bye. The Eagles led the league in yards allowed per pass attempt in the regular season (by a large margin) while ranking fourth in completion rate allowed, making this a difficult matchup through the air on paper, but the Commanders continue to excel in sustaining drives during their recent seven-game win streak. They’ll need to continue that efficiency to stand a chance in this one.

How Philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

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Kickoff Sunday, Jan 26th 6:30pm Eastern

Bills (
22.75) at

Chiefs (
24.75)

Over/Under 47.5

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Notes

GAME Overview ::

By HILOW >>
  • Bills S Taylor Rapp (back/hip) has been ruled out for the AFC Championship game. The Bills appear otherwise healthy.
  • The Chiefs enter Championship Weekend with a clean bill of health after not a single player was listed as limited or worse in either day of practice so far this week.
  • The Bills delivered the only pre-Week 18 loss of the season to the Chiefs back in Week 11.
  • These franchises have clearly been the top two teams in the AFC this season, setting up what should be the game of the season.
  • Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is one of the most aggressive play callers in the league, leading to a fourth-ranked 31.6% blitz rate this year.

HOW BUFFALO WILL TRY TO WIN ::

We’ve seen the story play out all season for the Bills, who have preferred to manage the game through sustained drives, minimizing mistakes, and forcing opponents to march the field against them as they look to generate disruption through organic pressure up front. The Bills rank 27th in blitz rate this season at just 19.1%, instead allowing their elite front four and linebacking unit to win over time. Their 39 sacks and 23.6% pressure rate highlight the relatively docile ways of their defensive philosophy, which combines with an offense that has been content to control the time-of-possession battle to result in a 22nd-ranked 60.8 plays per game in 2024. That said, we’ve also seen this team flip a switch against top-tier opponents, most notably the Chiefs in Week 11, the Rams in Week 14, and the Lions in Week 15. Even so, we’ve really only seen the offense alter those tendencies three times this season (adding their early-season loss to the Ravens) after their Week 11 win over the Chiefs involved a similarly tame offensive mindset considering they controlled the game environment throughout. Expect them to start the game with a similar mindset, with the game environment ultimately deciding how the final three quarters play out.

Here’s a crazy stat: James Cook has not played more than 52% of the team’s offensive snaps since before the Week 12 bye and he has not played more than 55% of the team’s offensive snaps since before getting injured in Week 5 and missing Week 6. He has seen more than 15 running back opportunities just twice since Week 10, both of which have come in the last two playoff games (23 against the Steelers in a comfortable win and 20 against the Ravens in a game they controlled throughout). As such, Cook has a path to 20+ opportunities even if he is held to around 50% of the offensive snaps, but it would require a very specific game environment in which the Bills either control the game or both teams remain within one score throughout. Ray Davis was banged up in the Wildcard Round but returned to a modest role in the Divisional Round, seeing four carries on six offensive snaps. That leaves Ty Johnson as the clear change-of-pace and passing down back after handling 11 opportunities against the Steelers and six against the Ravens. Johnson also stands as the player in the backfield likeliest to see his role grow in negative game scripts. The pure rushing matchup is about as difficult as they come against a Chiefs defense that held opposing backfields to 1.71 yards before contact per attempt (seventh), 4.2 yards per carry (eighth), and a league-low 16.6 fantasy points per game during the regular season.

The Bills have been light on the 11-personnel front throughout the season, something that has become more drastic in their two playoff games. That is something that has remained fairly consistent this year, regardless of opponent or game environment. We should expect more of the same here, with Mack Hollins, Keon Coleman, and Khalil Shakir the players likeliest to serve as “primary options,” although that designation means a lot less than it does for other teams. Curtis Samuel and Amari Cooper have both played between 31% and 39% of the team’s offensive snaps in each playoff game this year, giving us a good idea of current expectations as far as time on the field goes. Tight ends Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid have largely split playing time for an offense unlikely to utilize exorbitant amounts of 12-personnel. 

Add it all up and it becomes extremely difficult to narrow down where the aerial production is likeliest to flow outside of the broad statements that Hollins has never commanded targets at a high rate, Shakir leads the team in targets per route run, and Coleman has seen a few designed deep targets per game of late. One of the deciding factors on this side of the game is likely to be how Josh Allen handles the blitz or pressure in general. The good news for the Bills is that Allen led the league in fantasy points per dropback when under pressure during the regular season, although the bulk of that came from his ability to scramble when pressured (32 scrambles) and ability to attack downfield when pressured (league-leading 32 deep throws when pressured this year). Both of those areas are things the Chiefs will actively look to take away here.

How KANSAS CITY Will Try To Win ::

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