Kickoff Sunday, Jan 26th 6:30pm Eastern

Bills (
22.75) at

Chiefs (
24.75)

Over/Under 47.5

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Notes

GAME Overview ::

By HILOW >>
  • Bills S Taylor Rapp (back/hip) has been ruled out for the AFC Championship game. The Bills appear otherwise healthy.
  • The Chiefs enter Championship Weekend with a clean bill of health after not a single player was listed as limited or worse in either day of practice so far this week.
  • The Bills delivered the only pre-Week 18 loss of the season to the Chiefs back in Week 11.
  • These franchises have clearly been the top two teams in the AFC this season, setting up what should be the game of the season.
  • Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is one of the most aggressive play callers in the league, leading to a fourth-ranked 31.6% blitz rate this year.

HOW BUFFALO WILL TRY TO WIN ::

We’ve seen the story play out all season for the Bills, who have preferred to manage the game through sustained drives, minimizing mistakes, and forcing opponents to march the field against them as they look to generate disruption through organic pressure up front. The Bills rank 27th in blitz rate this season at just 19.1%, instead allowing their elite front four and linebacking unit to win over time. Their 39 sacks and 23.6% pressure rate highlight the relatively docile ways of their defensive philosophy, which combines with an offense that has been content to control the time-of-possession battle to result in a 22nd-ranked 60.8 plays per game in 2024. That said, we’ve also seen this team flip a switch against top-tier opponents, most notably the Chiefs in Week 11, the Rams in Week 14, and the Lions in Week 15. Even so, we’ve really only seen the offense alter those tendencies three times this season (adding their early-season loss to the Ravens) after their Week 11 win over the Chiefs involved a similarly tame offensive mindset considering they controlled the game environment throughout. Expect them to start the game with a similar mindset, with the game environment ultimately deciding how the final three quarters play out.

Here’s a crazy stat: James Cook has not played more than 52% of the team’s offensive snaps since before the Week 12 bye and he has not played more than 55% of the team’s offensive snaps since before getting injured in Week 5 and missing Week 6. He has seen more than 15 running back opportunities just twice since Week 10, both of which have come in the last two playoff games (23 against the Steelers in a comfortable win and 20 against the Ravens in a game they controlled throughout). As such, Cook has a path to 20+ opportunities even if he is held to around 50% of the offensive snaps, but it would require a very specific game environment in which the Bills either control the game or both teams remain within one score throughout. Ray Davis was banged up in the Wildcard Round but returned to a modest role in the Divisional Round, seeing four carries on six offensive snaps. That leaves Ty Johnson as the clear change-of-pace and passing down back after handling 11 opportunities against the Steelers and six against the Ravens. Johnson also stands as the player in the backfield likeliest to see his role grow in negative game scripts. The pure rushing matchup is about as difficult as they come against a Chiefs defense that held opposing backfields to 1.71 yards before contact per attempt (seventh), 4.2 yards per carry (eighth), and a league-low 16.6 fantasy points per game during the regular season.

The Bills have been light on the 11-personnel front throughout the season, something that has become more drastic in their two playoff games. That is something that has remained fairly consistent this year, regardless of opponent or game environment. We should expect more of the same here, with Mack Hollins, Keon Coleman, and Khalil Shakir the players likeliest to serve as “primary options,” although that designation means a lot less than it does for other teams. Curtis Samuel and Amari Cooper have both played between 31% and 39% of the team’s offensive snaps in each playoff game this year, giving us a good idea of current expectations as far as time on the field goes. Tight ends Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid have largely split playing time for an offense unlikely to utilize exorbitant amounts of 12-personnel. 

Add it all up and it becomes extremely difficult to narrow down where the aerial production is likeliest to flow outside of the broad statements that Hollins has never commanded targets at a high rate, Shakir leads the team in targets per route run, and Coleman has seen a few designed deep targets per game of late. One of the deciding factors on this side of the game is likely to be how Josh Allen handles the blitz or pressure in general. The good news for the Bills is that Allen led the league in fantasy points per dropback when under pressure during the regular season, although the bulk of that came from his ability to scramble when pressured (32 scrambles) and ability to attack downfield when pressured (league-leading 32 deep throws when pressured this year). Both of those areas are things the Chiefs will actively look to take away here.

How KANSAS CITY Will Try To Win ::

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