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The Scroll Week 3

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    Magico’s Money-Makers

    El Magico is a high-stakes tournament champion who focuses on single-entry/three-entry max // small-field play

    Through this article, I will be highlighting a small player pool that is composed of players that rank high in my proprietary model. This model usually starts working its magic once we have 3 weeks of historical data so there will be some small tweaking done until we get to that point in Week 4. There are several factors this model takes into consideration such as: DVP (Defense Vs Position), OL/DL matchup, WR/CB matchup, game pace, Vegas totals, target share, value score, air yard opportunities and a few secret sauce metrics I can’t discuss further. As we move forward I will do my best to point out some of the higher ranked players for the OWS community to take into consideration as part of their own research. When it comes to game selection, I would encourage this player pool to be used in single entry, 3-Max smaller field tournaments. 

    QB:

    Matthew Stafford:

    Here we enter one of those cases where the field really likes a team’s receiving weapons in a likely shootout but nobody is talking about their QB. The Rams enter this game with a hobbled running back against an impenetrable rush defense but have a gun-slinging QB with phenomenal passing weapons, so why are people not liking a relatively cheap QB in possibly the best game environment of the week? The model does like Stafford’s metrics in this matchup and I also trust Sean McVay to spot the weaknesses we see in this matchup.

    Matt Ryan:

    Is Ryan too cheap in a sneaky shoot-out? I like the idea of pairing him with Kyle Pitts and/or Calvin Ridley in a game that could turn into a sloppy shootout between two bad teams with talented pieces on both OFFENSES, but not on defense. We just saw Taylor Heinicke and Terry Mclaurin rip this defense and James Bradberry apart. I think Ryan//Ridley/Pitts are set up well here.

    Consideration: Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray

    RB:

    Austin Ekeler:

    I see Ekeler in a similar underrated spot as Stafford. His usage last week was closer to what we are accustomed to getting from Ekeler. Last week he caught 9 of 9 targets, and looking at the game script, I would say he could repeat that. On top of that, he has reclaimed his goal-line duties. The model likes a favorable OL/DL (KC is allowing 6 yds per carry, worst in the league) matchup along with his receiving floor and game environment.

    Leonard Fournette:

    This one doesn’t sound very sexy or attractive, but this could be a great value and leverage play as we see Ronald Jones be put in the Bruce Arians dog house, increasing opportunity for Fournette. If Stafford is able to keep pace in this game, we can expect Fournette to get a decent floor of targets, rushes, and goal-line work on a team with a 28 point total. 

    Consideration: Dalvin Cook, Najee Harris

    WR:

    Cooper Kupp:

    As mentioned earlier, the Rams weapons will be popular this week, but for good reason. Kupp is arguably the hottest receiver in the NFL and he sits as the centerpiece of this offense and will now face the biggest pass funnel defense in the NFL. As the Rams slot receiver Kupp will line up against the weak spot of this defense, a weak spot that is now missing its starter Sean Murphy-Bunting. As a fun fact, Kupp has played every offensive snap for the Rams this year. If you want to play the game theory game, Robert Woods is not a bad option as he will also get an opportunity to play in the slot and will be less owned. I wonder if JM will suggest a player block with Woods/Kupp (enter shrug emoji here).

    Keenan Allen:

    Allen sits atop the model for the second week in a row. The difference is that this week he should come with an ownership discount as most people (including me) are still licking their wounds from last week. Allen is a sure bet for double-digit targets as the Chargers should be forced to play aggressive and from behind vs a cover 2 defense that has been pretty friendly to opposing offenses this year.

    Chase Claypool:

    There are several reasons I like this play, but the main one is how under the radar this option could be. If Diontae Johnson misses this game, then I think it’s all systems go for Claypool as there will be double-digit targets to get re-distributed and Claypool is sure to get a bump here. In the slot, JuJu Smith-Schuster will face the tougher matchup lining up against Mike Hilton and that should provide more opportunity for Claypool. Another big reason the model likes Claypool is that he actually ranks number four in air yards (255 yds, 194 coming in Week 2!) in the entire league coming into this game. We do have a small caveat, which is Ben Roethlisberger’s pectoral injury, but I will take my chances. 

    Consideration: DK Metcalf, Marvin Jones Jr, Tyler Boyd

    TE:

    Kyle Pitts:

    Opportunity and volume typically predict performance for the model, and this could be the spot that Pitts blows up and becomes the player we have been hoping for. This is by far the best matchup he has faced so far this year, and arrows are pointing up for him in the model. The Giants have allowed a TD to opposing TEs the last two weeks, along with 149 yards, which averages out to 74 yards and a TD per game. Pitts is by far the most talented TE they will have faced this year. Bonus: If Russell Gage misses, even better for Pitts.

    Consideration: Travis Kelce, TJ Hockenson, Tyler Higbee

    Magic Stack:

    Matthew Stafford // Cooper Kupp // Robert Woods // Leonard Fournette

    #TheWorkbook

    Majesstik is one of the most respected Slate Breakdown artists in DFS

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    End Around

    Hilow is a game theory expert and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

    MACRO SLATE VIEW ::

    It’s an interesting slate in that almost all of the players from the expected top game environments are priced in the mid-tier at their respective positions. This is likely going to lead to a large number of balanced rosters, with a good deal of ownership coming from the top three perceived game environments. Similar to last week, it’s a great slate to build around uncertainty and against public perception. I want to reiterate that we need to be doing this smartly and not just being contrarian to be contrarian. If you’re not sure exactly what I’m talking about there, I highly encourage picking up a course or two from quite literally any of the outstanding analysts on staff.

    RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

    DALVIN COOK / ALEXANDER MATTISON

    Restrictive chalk / neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. Dalvin’s game day status is likely to carry immense influence on the slate as a whole. Currently projected as the running back to carry the highest ownership, expect massive ownership on Mattison should Dalvin miss.

    DERRICK HENRY

    Restrictive chalk. Recency bias at its finest here. All most people will see is the juicy-looking 4.3 yards allowed per carry from the Colts defense, yet top run-stopping linebacker Darius Leonard has played with an injured ankle all season. His first full practice of the season occurred this Wednesday, possibly indicating a return to health. I’d expect that yards allowed per carry number to fall in the coming weeks as a result. I will say this, however, Derrick Henry’s target totals over the first two games are highly encouraging. That said, the 10 targets he has seen thus far have come in a blowout loss and a shootout, which are unlikely to occur this week.

    ALVIN KAMARA

    Restrictive chalk. Is Alvin Kamara really going to carry ownership against the Patriots? I’m not so sure this one is accurate, to be completely honest.

    SAQUON BARKLEY

    Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. This one goes against current projections. From public sentiment and everything I’ve gathered, I expect Saquon to garner top two ownership at the position come first kick. When we then consider the first three names on this list, we get a pretty clear idea of how the field will be looking to attack the running back position.

    COOPER KUPP

    Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. One of the perceived top plays, from one of the perceived top game environments.

    Chris Godwin

    Same as above. Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. One of the perceived top plays, from one of the perceived top game environments.

    TYREEK HILL / TRAVIS KELCE

    Restrictive chalk. The level of interest I expect to have on these two is almost directly tied to where their expected ownership ends up. I currently don’t foresee either being overly chalky, but there are a ton of questionable players whose absences could fundamentally change the way the field sees the slate.

    PAY UP QBs

    Restrictive chalk. The top five quarterbacks in expected ownership are currently all priced above $7,000 in salary. People are likely to be hunting for ways to spend salary this week, and many will elect to do so at high variance positions (quarterback and tight end).

    CHALK BUILD ::


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    JM’s Player Grid

    JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat) who is focusing this year on single-entry/three-entry max

    OWS Fam ::
    This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate.

    This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing.


    The Grid ::

    Explained >>>>

    Bottom-Up Build

    :: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”

    Blue Chips

    :: these are my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; players who have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

    Build-Arounds

    :: these are games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

    Bonuses

    :: these are players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective


    Angles Pod

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    Bottom-Up Build

    Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (above).

    Correlated Bottom-Up Build
    DK Salary Remaining :: $6K

    Bold players are not included in the Player Grid, but are nevertheless in the mix for me

    Daniel Jones
    Chris Carson
    Clyde Edwards-Helaire
    Darius Slayton
    Marvin Jones Jr.
    Laviska Shenault
    Rondale Moore
    Kyle Pitts
    Browns

    Standard (Straight-Value) BUB…

    There is no “Straight Value” bottom-up build this week. We take a deeper look at this in the Angles Pod, but given the shape of this slate, it is much sharper to attack some low-cost stacks or player pairings than it is to simply hunt for one-off value.

    Join The Bottom-Up Build DraftKings Contest Here!

    (Rules: $44k salary cap. Must be playing with the OWS Avatar in order to be eligible to win (find this on your profile page). 100 Edge Points to 1st place // 50 Edge Points to 2nd // 25 Edge Points to 3rd.)


    Blue Chips

    Kyler Murray

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    The Oracle :: Strategy Q&A

    Welcome to The Oracle! :: The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS!

    Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

    Week 3 Topics

    1. Salary Allocation Strategies

    2. Seahawks // Vikings

    3. How To Handle King Henry

    4. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”


    1. Salary Allocation Strategies

    The Question ::

    On DraftKings — where we typically see as many as three or more players priced at $9k and above (with Christian McCaffrey often ringing the $10k+ bell) — the highest-priced player this week is $8600. Furthermore, only eight players (two quarterbacks, three running backs, two wide receivers, one tight end) are priced at $8k or higher. This could conceivably create an ownership vacuum, in which leftover salary is automatically allocated to these “top plays” — but in mid-late-week projections, no one from this group of eight players is particularly dominating expected ownership.

    Meanwhile, plenty of players in the $6ks and $7ks are going to be attractive to the field this week, likely leading to a more balanced build, or to builds in which only two roster spots play the extremes (one “scrub,” one “star”; balanced everywhere else).

    If we assume — for purposes of illustration — that a DFS player spends $8k on “defense and tight end” (or on defense and “a lower-cost option elsewhere so I can pay up at TE”), we end up with $6k per roster spot remaining. With no one from the top end shaping up as a perceived “must play,” we should generally see very balanced rosters this week.

    Do you see any clear strategic angles to a more “stars and scrubs” build this week, or are you likelier to be looking more to other angles for your potential path to first place?

    The Answers ::
    JM >>

    I’ll definitely be hunting for some “30-point-potential” value plays, as these guys will almost certainly go lower-owned this week than they typically would. I think that’s a key potential advantage on this week’s slate.

    With that said (see Questions 2 & 4!), there are also going to be plenty of ways to be different than the field this week, so I won’t force a “stars and scrubs” build just to get differentiation in pricing structure. Part of that is the simple fact that the strategic angles my mind typically uncovers are usually going to come together from other approaches; but I’m working to pick up as much as I can from Hilow on the raw strategic advantages of moving away from the “chalk build,” and looking for ways to leverage that strategy without getting outside of my own strengths as a player.

    Said differently: I’m going to be explicitly hunting for lower-priced, high-upside options, as these guys will not only create a differentiated build, but will also come with lower ownership than normal. But I won’t force any such plays in just for the sake of “a differentiated build,” as I expect to be different from the field this week regardless of how my pricing structure comes together.

    Xandamere >>

    Agree with JM in that I don’t think there’s an edge in forcing stars/scrubs builds. While there are some viable cheap plays who have sufficient ceiling to be worth targeting (Laviska, Mooney, Callaway, Hardman, Cephus, Dyami, Osborn, Jefferson), I think you’d be hamstringing yourself if you forced one of those guys onto every single roster. Those guys are all in the mix for me not just for value but because of how they help differentiate roster construction, but there are lots of other ways to differentiate roster construction!

    Sonic >>

    There are a handful of sub 5k players that I’m interested in so far but I have concerns that their ownership may climb as Sunday approaches. The touts I’ve tuned into seem to be hammering the same dudes, which can create a less-than-desirable result. I’ll keep digging but playing chalky stars and scrubs would obviously defeat the purpose! Since I’ll likely be building my usual 150 in MME, I’ll certainly go top and bottom heavy for a good portion either way.

    Hilow >>

    From a theory perspective, we should always be looking for a way to attack a slate that the field is not likely to be on. That said, I’m not entirely sure forcing a stars and scrubs lineup accomplishes that in the most +EV way this week. I’m not completely through the week just yet, but my current thoughts are that attacking some likely under-owned game environments is a better option this week.

    Larejo >>

    Two starting points for me this week…First on the high-priced guys, Derrick Henry and Tyreek Hill are the two main pivot points to start to consider before building. Pairing Henry with Jonathan Taylor and Tyreek with Mecole Hardman are two simple ways to go different than the field right out of the gates.

    The second area to differentiate in my opinion is targeting the $5K DK wide receivers more than the $6-7K WR. Building a balanced lineup but going slightly cheaper than many will. In the $5K range we have guys like Chase Claypool, Sammy Watkins, Kenny Golladay, and Christian Kirk, who will carry lower ownership than Cooper Kupp, Mike Evans, AJ Brown, and Chris Godwin. Starting in this range can give us similar ceilings while looking at a different lens than the field.

    MJohnson >>

    I think that on a 13-game slate the ownership gets spread out enough and there are no clear, cheap values to condense ownership in any area. My general take is that the objective this week is to build the best rosters you can from a roster construction, ceiling projection, and game environment standpoint and then evaluate what that lineup looks like from an ownership perspective and make some small tweaks if necessary. We obviously don’t want to have 9 guys who are all in the 10-25% range of ownership, but if we just build organically around game environments and strong plays we will likely be unique enough to differentiate from the field with so many games on the slate.

    Majesstik >>

    The upside of the “stars” (or $8k+ players) doesn’t feel like that much of an advantage over some of the middle tier players except for at RB. Pricing is soft this week so I think it’s just about picking your favorite(s) game environment, stacking that, then seeing what’s left for the rest of the build. Fitting those remaining pieces together in a way that provides a unique build will be the key.


    2. Seahawks // Vikings

    The Question ::

    In their 22 games with Brady as QB, the Bucs have held their opponent under 28 points 19 times.

    In their 27 games with Jalen Ramsey, the Rams have held their opponent under 28 points 22 times (and under 20 points 15 times).

    While acknowledging that both the Bucs and the Rams are capable of putting up points (which is why this game total sits at 55.5 — highest on the slate), these defenses lower the likelihood of this game turning into a true shootout (70+ combined points — or at least, somewhere in that range).

    This leaves Seahawks // Vikings (55.0 point total; one point spread) as the game with the best chance of exploding. (Of the Seahawks’ last 20 games — playoffs included — 13 have gone for 49+ points; seven have gone for 60+ points. Of the Vikings’ last 18 games, 15(!!!!) have gone for 49+ points; seven have gone for 60+ points.) Both of these teams maintain relatively low-volume passing attacks…but both of these teams also have a narrow distribution of targets through the air.

    Considering that this game will not be treated as a “clear and obvious top game on the slate,” how are you balancing this game into your Week 3 builds?


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    Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week!

    We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

    Biased Discomfort

    Inner Circle Bonus

    A note from JM:

    Biased Discomfort is a bonus Week 3 piece, built around concepts we discussed in our Tuesday night session this week. This is an email Larejo sent me after listening to that podcast, exploring more deeply the ways we can aim to identify these “Biased Discomfort” plays ::


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    Willing To Lose

    Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

    When I was writing the Missed Opportunities article earlier this week, I spent more time than usual trying to dig into how and why I could have identified guys like Julio Jones and Courtland Sutton, before their big games in Week 2. One player (Julio) was combatting a ‘washed’ narrative and was priced right next to Cooper Kupp and Mike Evans, while another in Sutton was coming off a three target game in Week 1, and we believed he was still recovering from his 2020 season-ending ACL tear. I realized my current mindset would have led me to rarely (if ever) click on either name. But why? As much as I preach it sometimes in this space, they were both incredibly uncomfortable plays. Why play Julio when his teammates were likelier to hit? Why play Sutton when it’s possible he could get another three target game? The answers in hindsight were simple. And I think they tell a great tale moving forward.

    In order for my research to have pointed me to Julio, I would have seen his Week 1 snap count as stable (78% in Week 1), which tells us his role was secure, and I would have recognized him simply as a leverage play off his teammate A.J. Brown. The biggest reason to have played Julio last week was the narrative surrounding him on a new team. He did not have a good game in Week 1, which may have suggested to people that he’s in a declining phase in his career.

    In order for my research to have pointed me to Sutton, I would have noted Jerry Jeudy getting hurt, the Broncos soft matchup with Jacksonville, and also his Week 1 snap count (80%). In hindsight, regardless of his price, we could have said it’s within the range of outcomes for Sutton to dominate as the Broncos WR1 in the absence of Jeudy (especially considering what Brandin Cooks did to this same defense in Week 1). But that’s about it. None of the reasons I just provided are advanced metrics. And they are not really logical reasons to click on Julio and Sutton, instead of similarly priced guys who were carrying better ownership.

    Week 3

    I am tasked here with writing the Willing to Lose to try to identify these low-owned plays who give you plenty of risk but could carry your rosters to the top of the leaderboards. As I do this, I dive into advanced stats often, which can indicate a positive regression coming. Said another way, I give you (or try to) logical reasoning behind why a player will break out this week. See the irony? We all nod our heads in agreement that we need uncomfortable, illogical picks to really carry our lineups toward first place. And then we consume content or do research on our own looking for those plays, and we do find real data to provide sound reasoning pointing to a signal in the noise. That was a long intro but as you will see, I will go lighter on the logic behind these low-owned players, while trying to major on the macro environments they are entering into come Sunday.

    Kenny Golladay

    Note: Kenny Golladay is questionable. Keep an eye on his status this week.

    The Giants have an implied total this week of 25 points, and they are three point favorites at home against the Atlanta Falcons. 25+ points is a lot of points for the Giants. Through two weeks, Sterling Shepard has been WR1 in New York. Shepard has played 93% of the snaps, and turned 19 targets into 16 catches for over 200 yards. Golladay, on the other hand, has held an 84% snap share and has turned 14 targets into seven catches for just over 100 yards. While Shepard has led the Giants in receiving yardage, he’s actually third (178) in Air Yards behind Golladay (213) and Darius Slayton (195). Golladay’s role is secure.

    This Falcons and Giants game is starting to pick up momentum in the industry as an under-owned pace up game for fantasy points. And I have to say, I love it too. The G-Men offense looked much improved last week against Washington’s notable defense, by going with the highest no-huddle rate of any team in Week 2 (52%). We should expect them to continue to utilize this on Sunday. Atlanta, on the other hand, went with the highest situation-neutral pass rate of Week 2, which seems to be a trend against the Buccaneers. Expect passes often in this one, and I expect Golladay to go under-owned and to over-deliver.

    Jonathan Taylor

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    Sonic’s MME Pool

    Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play

    OWS Fam! 

    Every week while hand-building lineups I tend to run into some decision points. This week while stacking different teams, I tended to get funneled into a situation where I had $4,200 in salary left for the flex or final WR slot. I’ll be spending extra time exploring those players in this space just in case you guys are being thrust into a similar spot. The RB position is still fluid for me at this time. I need a long meditation session before I whittle down that part of my pool. 

    As usual, my core players are in bold green. Those are players that I’ll be reaching for the most and not just as part of their game’s stacks. See you guys in the gameday-chat channel tomorrow. 

    LFG!


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    SuperDraft Strategy

    Xandamere is one of the most respected Showdown minds in DFS, and focuses his Main Slate play on mass-multi-entry

    Welcome to Week 3 and a look at tournament play on Superdraft. Superdraft is a relatively new site that is making an aggressive push in the DFS space, and they’re aggressively trying to acquire customers in the space, which means they’re putting out big tournaments that aren’t filling. That means overlay, one of the most +EV things we can find in DFS! Despite not filling in either Week 1 or Week 2, their main tournament is still the same size for Week 3, and we can be awfully certain it will overlay this week as well.

    Before you read this article, you should read my NFL Superdraft Primer to get a basic understanding of the site, how it’s different from Draftkings and Fanduel, and the strategy elements that come into play. If you haven’t signed up yet, you can get $100 free with a minimum $100 deposit!! (Promo Code :: OWS)

    First, all the normal NFL strategy about stacking and correlation still applies. It definitely makes sense to strongly consider pairing your QB with a receiver. Game stacks are entirely viable here. The good news is you don’t have to change your entire approach to be successful on Superdraft. All you have to do is change your mentality of player selection, since the multiplier introduces so many different strategy dynamics, as the primer goes over. With that, let’s take a look at Week 3. I’m not going to go game by game here (we have the Edge for that!), but rather, position by position, trying to spot where I think there are good opportunities to leverage attractive scoring multipliers. 

    Quarterback:

    As always, I’m going to look for higher multipliers here. With QB scoring so tightly clustered, it makes sense to take advantage of multipliers in tournaments in search of spiked weeks. This means Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray are off my list completely. However, I am willing to target the high end here as we have some top-end QBs with decent multipliers, with Lamar Jackson at 1.15x and Josh Allen at 1.2x, who are possible standalone options. I also want to use a lot of Russ Wilson at 1.15x, Justin Herbert at 1.25x, Tom Brady at 1.25x, Matt Stafford at 1.3x, and Kirk Cousins at 1.35x, as all of those guys are in very attractive game environments that are great for stacking as well as having strong multipliers themselves. Farther down the list, I like Daniel Jones with his rushing upside and in a great matchup at 1.55x. Justin Fields at a whopping 1.7x is sure to be popular in his first career start but is also a very strong play.

    Running Back:

    At running back, I’m okay playing one of Dalvin Cook or Derrick Henry, as they both still have ceilings of 30+ despite no real multiplier bonus. I would not play both. Most of my RB exposure, as always, is going to be searching for ceilings games that can also be paired with strong multipliers. I’m targeting Jonathan Taylor (1.3x), Austin Ekeler (1.35x), Saquon Barkley (1.35x), Joe Mixon (1.35x), Najee Harris (1.4x), Kenyan Drake if Josh Jacobs is out (1.4x), Chris Carson (1.4x), and Chase Edmonds (1.55x). We also may get some RB “value” here based on injury situations, with the most likely looking to be Alexander Mattison at 1.75x if Cook is out. If Cook misses I will be all over Mattison at that multiplier.

    Wide Receiver:

    As always, I want to correlate here as well, and embrace a lot of variance with high-multiplier guys at strong multipliers. At the high end, I think you can still play one of Calvin Ridley, A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, DK Metcalf, or Tyler Lockett. I wouldn’t want more than one of these plays, but we know they all have ceilings that are strong enough to be viable without huge multipliers.

    In the mid-tier, Mike Evans (1.25x) and Chris Godwin (1.3x) are in play in the highest-total game of the week, as is Robert Woods (1.3x) coming back the other way. I’m okay going back to the well on Courtland Sutton (1.35x and who feels like a bad process miss last week) as the new WR1 in Denver with Jerry Jeudy out. I’ll happily stack any of the Giants receivers with Daniel Jones. D.J. Chark is interesting at 1.45x, as while he has yet to have a big game, he’s among the NFL leaders in air yards.

    At the high-multiplier tier of 1.5x or greater, this is where you can really hit some ceiling games by taking on volatile options. Corey Davis, Mecole Hardman, Mike Williams, Henry Ruggs, Zack Pascal, Darnell Mooney, Van Jefferson, K.J. Hamler, Marquez Callaway, Rondale Moore, Michael Pittman, and K.J. Osborn are all plays that have some really strong ceilings with their extreme multipliers.

    Tight End:

    At tight end, I’m generally wanting to limit variance a bit because very few TEs in the league have realistic ceilings of 20+ “real” points, and a “cheap” TE getting 10-15 points feels like it’s taking on more risk than I want for relatively low ceilings. My entire TE player pool this week is going to be Travis Kelce (1x), Darren Waller (1.3x), Mark Andrews (1.35x), T.J. Hockenson (1.4x), Rob Gronkowski (1.5x), Kyle Pitts (1.55x), and Tyler Higbee (1.65x). My favorite play here, and the guy who I expect to have the highest ownership, is Waller. At a 1.3x multiplier, Waller is going to project as an absolutely fantastic play (and he is), so I only want to have other TEs who I could see scoring 15-20 raw points, and thus have at least a reasonable chance of outsourcing Waller once their multipliers are applied.

    Overall Strategy:

    If we look at the rest of the content on OWS this week, we can see that when we look at the games themselves, LAR/TB and SEA/MIN look like the clear top games to stack this week. But, for the most part, those teams have relatively modest multipliers. We can still invest in those games, but I’d be cautious of double-stacking multiple low-multiplier plays (i.e. I wouldn’t do a game stack with Brady, Evans, Godwin, and Kupp coming back). I would want to mix in higher-multiplier guys so I’d prefer a stack of something like Brady, Evans, and Gronk with Jefferson coming back. When there are only so many fantasy points to go around in a single game, it doesn’t make sense to me to stack multiple low-multiplier receivers, as it’s just really tough for them to both hit ceiling performances in the same game. Multiplier attractiveness changes the stacking situation on Superdraft and makes ATL/NYG a lot more attractive than it is on other sites. I love targeting game stacks when the multiplier means that a “good game” could you really get you there on Superdraft, while on other sites it would not result in the kind of ceiling outcomes you need for a tournament. For example, a stack of Daniel Jones with one or two of his high-multiplier receivers and Kyle Pitts coming back has an enormous amount of ceiling on Superdraft.

    Edge Bets

    Jreas11 leverages research from the NFL Edge in order to replace DFS cash game play with profitable prop betting


    << Edge Bets Primer >>


    Week 2 Recap

    EDGE BETS Week 2: 2-2
    EDGE BETS 2021 Results: 4-4

    Chris Carson: Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts  

    Result: Loss (13 Rushing Attempts)

    Even with overtime, Carson was unable to get the 16 carries needed to cash this prop with the Seattle Seahawks only producing 14 total running back rushes this week. While Carson was able to save his day with two rushing touchdowns, we were unfortunately left holding the bag. Carson was inefficient from the start, accumulating 31 yards on his 13 touches, failing to record a single catch. To make matters worse, the game script was here for Carson as the Seahawks led for most of the game. The margins may have been a bit thin on this one in hindsight, with the likelihood of Carson seeing 20+ carries appearing to be capped.

    David Montgomery: Over 14.5 Rushing Attempts

    Result: Win (20 Rushing Attempts)

    As expected, David Montgomery was dealt a more favorable game script in Week 2 and was handed 20 carries with three catches on four targets. Damien Williams was held to just four total touches (two carries, two catches) as the Chicago Bears led throughout. While Montgomery was inefficient with his rushing attempts, the Bears have shown they prefer Montgomery in all but the most negative game scripts. Even in such scripts, Montgomery is able to still see the field, due to his increased pass catching role since Tarik Cohen’s ACL tear in early 2020. Keep an eye on how this offense adjusts to the change in signal callers, with Justin Fields making his first career start in Week 3.


    Josh Allen: Over 38.5 Pass Attempts

    Result: Loss (33 Pass Attempts)

    The Buffalo Bills won their Week 2 matchup vs. Miami 35-0, leading 14-0 at halftime, and 21-0 at the end of three quarters. Josh Allen STILL threw the football 33 times and continued to throw well into the final quarter. The Bills continued to show little interest in running the football with their running backs early this week (23 total RB carries, eight on the final drive), despite being in control from start to finish. It’s quite possible that a Miami shutout on offense, after a Tua Tagovailoa injury on the Dolphins second series, was one of the only game scripts that could keep Josh below this prop.

    Baker Mayfield: Under 34.5 Pass Attempts

    Result: Win (21 Pass Attempts)

    Well, that was easy. Hilow has been spot on with his Edge write-ups on the Cleveland Browns so far in 2021, providing great insight into how they will most likely attack and how they wish to distribute touches. This one was a gimmie from the books, and despite the prop falling into the early 30s, this was one of the easier props available in Week 2. Even with the Houston Texans keeping the game close into the third quarter, the Browns game plan was carried out effortlessly through their running backs, shortening the game and coming away with a win. Baker Mayfield did appear to injure his shoulder in Week 2. That may be something to monitor in practice this week ahead of any potential Week 3 prop bets on the Cleveland Browns. 

    Personal Prop Bets Placed Week 2

    Week 1: +10.0U

    Week 2: -1.2U

    2021: +8.8U

    Week 3 Edge Bets

    Jared Goff Over 38.5 Pass Attempts

    Book: Draft Kings (-125), Bet MGM (39.5 PA: -105)

    Date Available: September 23rd

    From Papy324:

    “The Lions have thrown 93 passes versus only 43 runs, and while game flow has influenced those numbers, the Lions are also being aggressive.”

    “The most likely game flow is the Ravens jump on the talentless Lions defense and do their typical dismantling of below-average units.”

    “Dan Campbell is more than happy to let Goff sling it, as the Lions have thrown the ball 93 times through two weeks. These numbers are the result of game flow, but the Lions are going to be losing a lot this year.”

    “Any QB in a high total game, priced at $5,200, with the potential to throw 50 times, is in play.”

    Reasy’s Reasoning:

    Jared Goff opened the season with 57 pass attempts in the Detroit Lions Week 1 loss to the 49ers in a game in which they never held a lead. We can expect much of the same this week, as Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens take advantage of the Lions lackluster defense early and often on the ground while looking for splash plays through the air. The Detroit coaching staff has already shown a willingness to let Goff prove the Los Angeles Rams made a mistake turning the page too soon and I expect Detroit to abandon their run game early and instead use their running back tandem in the passing game, building on their 28 targets so far this season. Goff has performed much better in his career with a clean pocket, which should be available to him with the Baltimore Ravens failing to get to the QB with any frequency early this season. This should allow Goff to string multiple successful drives together and the most likely game flow leads to Goff reaching 40+ attempts frequently, with room for much more if forced into our ideal game script early on. 

    Jameis Winston Under 29.5 Pass Attempts

    Book: Draft Kings (-105), Bet MGM (-105)

    Date Available: September 23rd

    From Papy324:

    “This game started with a low total, and it has been bet down. There isn’t much to like from either passing attack.”

    “In the absence of an evident defensive weakness, I expect the Patriots to default to their strength, pounding the rock behind an elite O-line.”

    “Expect Payton to try and limit his QB’s ability to make mistakes for as long as he can while hoping his defense can force Mac Jones to the air and create turnovers. Early in the game, expect Alvin Kamara to be the focal point and to remain the focal point unless game flow dictates otherwise. Sean Payton will be happy to win this game with his star RB and defense.”

    “No one expects much scoring in a game that is likely to have a slow pace between two above-average defenses.”

    “The Saints have remarkably only thrown 44 passes through two games, a testament to the fact that Payton knows who he has at QB.” 

    Reasy’s Reasoning:

    The New Orleans Saints are operating the 7th slowest offense so far this season, averaging 51.5 plays a game after their comically low Week 3 total of 39. Yes, 39. When they are running plays, they are handing the ball off at the 2nd highest situation-neutral rate, while adjusting to life post-Drew Brees. The New England Patriots also play slowly, ranking 20th in situation-neutral rate so far in the 2021 season. With Vegas expecting a close game, we can expect both teams to drain the clock unless forced to open things up. Teams are running against the New Orleans defense at the 9th highest rate this year, which bodes well for the Patriots to stick to their desired game plan. As long as this game remains close, there is little chance Sean Payton will choose a Bill Belichick defense to unleash his new QB. This game opened at 42.5 and has quickly been bet down to 41.5 by midweek. In a battle of good defenses, expect the ball to stay grounded this one. 

    Trevor Lawrence Over 38.5 Pass Attempts

    Book: Bet MGM (-105)

    Date Available: September 23rd

    From Hilow:

    “The Jaguars absolutely baffled me in Week 1 when they came out and allowed their rookie quarterback to sling it around all day in his first NFL game. They proceeded to attack in the same manner in Week 2, ending the week with the highest situation-neutral pass rate in the league.”

    “The team currently operates at the league’s sixth-fastest pace of play at 26.18 seconds per play.”

    “The Jags have run the ball a league-low 16.0 times per game.”

    “Lawrence has thrown the sixth-most passes over the first two weeks. When we factor in the likely fast pace of this game with the high likelihood of Jacksonville playing from behind, we are left with a clear path to upwards of 40-50 pass attempts here.”

    Reasy’s Reasoning:

    Like Rickie Bobby, these teams just want to go fast! The Jacksonville Jaguars have ranked first in situation-neutral play rate combined with the league’s highest situation-neutral pass rate leading to 84 pass attempts from Trevor Lawrence, tied for 6th in the league with Josh Allen, through two weeks. On the other side of the ball, Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals snap the ball at the ninth quickest rate in neutral situations, leading to more drives and opportunity in this track meet of a contest. The Cardinals routinely score heavily in the first half of games, averaging 24.0 through Week 2, which would create an ideal flow for Lawrence to get into the 40s in pass attempts. Jags games currently rank 5th in total combined plays at 130 on average, and although the Cardinals games have accumulated a middling total to start the 2021 season, we can expect that number to rise substantially as the year goes on to gain ground on their second-place ranking during the 2020 season. 

    ActionLabs Props Tool

    One of the major advantages of online sports betting is that you can carry accounts with multiple sports books in order to quickly/easily shop for the best line for the bet you want to place. Every week in Edge Bets, you’ll have access to this Player Props Tool from our friends at ActionLabs (click the orange “LABS” below), in which you’ll be able to see at a glance where the Best Lines are.


    Thanks for hanging out with us in The Scroll this week!

    We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!