Majesstik is one of the most respected Slate Breakdown artists in DFS

Pro Tip: For optimal viewing, use the “download” button

Learn how to Use The Workbook

Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

MACRO SLATE VIEW::

If Week 1 was the slate of uncertainty, and Week 2 was the slate of overconfidence, Week 3 is the slate of injury mayhem. I say that because it is fundamentally altering how the field is seeing the slate. Kenneth Walker is injured and Zach Charbonnet played 97% of the offensive snaps with him out in Week 2. Christian McCaffrey is injured and Jordan Mason has seen all but one running back opportunity for the 49ers over the previous two games. Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce are injured, and Cam Akers is $4,700 on DraftKings and $4,000 on FanDuel. Raheem Mostert is injured and De’Von Achane is coming off a 29-opportunity game, leading the team in both rushing and receiving. Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are injured, and Brandon Aiyuk returned to a full-time player in the offense in Week 2. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are injured, and the remaining Rams pass-catchers are all priced at $5,000 and below. A.J. Brown is injured, and DeVonta Smith is coming off a 10-target game. Keenan Allen is injured, and D.J. Moore has averaged nine targets per game over the first two weeks. David Njoku is injured, three starting quarterbacks are injured… the list goes on and on.

But even with all the injuries, there isn’t a ton of value that projects well on this slate, likely pushing more of the field toward the perceived value invoked through the multitude of injuries. The pairing of these two major components is likely to lead to an immense concentration of ownership. And some of those players will hit for excellent cost considered scores this week, but I can guarantee you there are many plays (or teams) that are in “slightly worse situations” than a lot of the chalk, situations that will hit maybe 45-48% as much as a lot of the chalk. One spot that I’ve really been diving head-first into this week as I explore the shifting meta of the NFL is the running back position. In the post-workhorse era that we currently reside, we’ve become conditioned to rarely paying up for running backs and shifting the focus of the FLEX position to an emphasis on wide receivers. And then the first two weeks of the 2024 season happened, in which passing touchdowns were down to a 10-year low, and field goals were up to a nearly 30-year high. From what I can tell from grinding the tape on the 32 teams in the league, the increase of two-high utilization is fundamentally inviting the run while simultaneously prohibiting downfield passing. Now, there are things that can be done to collapse the depth set against single-high still (see the Saints write-up this week), but two-high plays a lot differently in that one safety is typically responsible for holding depth, even if they diagnose a run. So, teams are accepting the higher confidence play of a five-to-six-yard gain on the ground.

Furthermore, defensive coordinators are no longer as static in their alignments, coverages, and schemes (unless you’re Gus Bradley – yeah, he might not make it through the end of the season), instead being more fluid in the pre-snap picture they present to opposing quarterbacks. The poster child for this expansion in the league currently is “mad scientist” Brian Flores, who has taken components of Tampa-2 (a variation of Cover-2), quarters, and Cover-6 and integrated continuous motion in the linebacking corps (making it hard to diagnose coverages from pre-snap motion), stunt blitzes, and corner blitzes, all the while maintaining one of the highest two-high alignment rates in the league (78.5%, currently 7% higher than any other team through two weeks). Ten years ago, during the passing heyday, defensive coordinators continuously showed static Cover-1 and Cover-2 prior to the snap. Then we saw the meta shift to Cover-3, a single-high alignment. It took a few years, but offensive coordinators started figuring out how to exploit it, with pre-snap motion, play action, and safety manipulation. And now the league has adjusted again to the current meta of increased rates of variable two-high alignments.

This brings us back to my personal journey through this shifting meta this week, as it pertains to roster construction. Even though the age of the workhorse running back is deceased, might we now be in a new meta in which more ~70% opportunity share running backs, or timeshare backs on teams with increased rushing utilization, are seeing 22-25 opportunities each week? Might the first two weeks have unearthed new, or different, workhorse running backs? Can we leverage these trends before the field fully catches on? My thesis goes something like this – what if the increase in the number of weekly running backs to see 22+ opportunities leads to a higher hit rate of running backs in the FLEX. I have no idea if the current trends will hold, but it’s at least worth expanding our roster construction tendencies to include a higher rate of running backs in the FLEX until we get more information and can either confirm or refute the thesis. If this thesis is confirmed in the coming weeks, the edge will then be gone. Or maybe it won’t be, I don’t know, humans are typically allergic to change so it might take longer for the field to adjust. And here we are, in Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season. Let’s dig in!

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.

JORDAN MASON

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Jordan Mason has put up back-to-back 100-yard games with a touchdown while seeing all but one running back opportunity for the 49ers this season. He has also seen just two total targets, making him the definition of a yardage and touchdown back. Yes, he has the highest rushing prop on the week. Yes, he is ridiculously underpriced on DraftKings (priced where he should be on FanDuel). But any yardage and touchdown back can fail if they aren’t, you know, scoring touchdowns. And he’s going to need multiple to sink you for not playing him this week. By all means, play the man, we simply must be honest with his range of outcomes here (as JM described in each of the previous two weeks, it’s probably somewhere in the 8-30 DK point range).

CAM AKERS

EXPANSIVE CHALK. Cam Akers was out-snapped by Dare Ogunbowale after Joe Mixon left the game in Week 2. He is also playing a defense holding opponents to 3.8 yards per carry behind one of the top defensive coordinators in the game. Any running back priced near bare minimum deserves consideration, but after consideration, I choose to say that this is a poor decision.

BRANDON AIYUK

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. No issues from me about playing Brandon Aiyuk this week. Even better if he draws a shadow from Tre’Davious White, who has given up 30% more yards in coverage than any other cornerback this season. That said, the sub-7k wide receiver range is packed with upside this week.

ZACH CHARBONNET

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Zach Charbonnet has forced three missed tackles on 22 carries, has a pedestrian 2.73 yards after contact per attempt, and is running behind an offensive line oozing with uneven play and uncertainty. On the other hand, the dude played all but three offensive snaps for the Seahawks in Week 2 and saw five targets.

ALVIN KAMARA

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. 20 and 23 running back opportunities during the first two weeks of play, both games of which were massive blowout wins. Eight combined targets through two games means Kamara is game environment agnostic.

DEVONTA SMITH

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. It is highly likely DeVonta Smith sees eight or more targets in this spot, with clear paths to double-digit looks. The problem, for me, is that the state of the roster without A.J. Brown forced the Eagles to give Britain Covey, Johnny Wilson, and Parris Campbell meaningful snaps in the year of our Lord, 2024, shifting Smith from the slot to the perimeter, and sending him in motion far less. So, more targets but at the expense of expected efficiency/upside on those targets.

CHALK BUILD::

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

---

OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing

---

The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

Beta

:: a new category for 2024! — these are players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds

---

Sunday Morning Update

Bottom-Up Build

Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on the One Week Season podcast feed).

Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.0K

Derek Carr
Tony Pollard
D’Andre Swift
Rashid Shaheed
Devaughn Vele
Diontae Johnson
Dallas Goedert
Jameson Williams
Bears

Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

Buy-In:

Free

Rules:

Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:

1st Place = 150 Edge Points + Rare Blue Name Tag in Discord
2nd Place = 75 Edge Points
3rd Place = 40 Edge Points

*1 Edge Point = $1 in DFS courses on OWS

<< Join Here >>

*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win

---

Blue Chips

49ers Core

I originally put this together before the initial Kittle news broke. Now, Kittle is doubtful, which means “49ers Core” went from three players down to two. So let’s look at this.

A typical NFL offense produces 65 to 75 skill position player points per game (DraftKings scoring). Some offenses land in the 55-60 point range pretty often. Some offenses land in the 80-85 point range on a somewhat regular basis. If the 49ers manage even just 70 skill position player points here, it’s pretty fair to assume that Eric Saubert, Jauan Jennings, Chris Conley, and Ronnie Bell will combine for 25 or fewer of those points. All of a sudden, Mason // Aiyuk become even less about “mixing and matching them across your rosters” (the way I would have been looking at Mason // Aiyuk // Kittle), and instead start to look like a pretty viable $12.4k block to play across rosters.

Another way to look at this is to recognize that Conley/Bell are unlikely to get many touches, and Mason // Kittle // Jennings // Saubert cost $19k combined, on an offense that frequently produces 75+ skill position player points. 78 points would be 4x the salary of these four, which would mean that mixing and matching two- and even three-player combinations from this group would be +EV. Add the fact that the 49ers are top-heavy in their roster construction (paying their superstars, and otherwise collecting respected veterans as backups and role players), and you realize that someone like Saubert (eight years in the league; 38 career catches; time spent with 10 different NFL teams) may not account for much of that production either, which means that the $16.5k block of Mason + Aiyuk + Jennings is interesting. And finally, even bad NFL offenses are typically going to produce 55 DraftKings points, and if we assume that it’s unlikely more than 15 points come from backups and role players in this situation, that would still leave 40 points for Mason and Aiyuk to split. Basically, any way you cut it, one of Mason // Aiyuk is likely to soar clear of 20 DK points, and there’s a pretty good chance both of them do so. Quite frankly, you could make a case that it’s +EV to have as much as 80% of each of these players (with the math obviously meaning you would have 60% of rosters on which you have both guys); and it’s honestly pretty high-probability that at least one of these two will post a score that would help push you toward a tourney win if you had it. I don’t think Shanahan and the 49ers “completely fail” against this downtrodden Rams defense, which means I’m essentially compelled, by the numbers, to have heavy Mason/Aiyuk exposure, with a decent dose of Jennings, and even a bit of Saubert.

“Light Blue” Chips

---

Build-Arounds

---

---

Building Blocks

“Smash Smash”

Dak + CeeDee + McBride + Montgomery

Story:

“Ravens // Cowboys and Lions // Cardinals both pay off”

Why It Works:

As explored in my DFS Interpretations for the Ravens // Cowboys game :: there is potential for the optimal strategy this week to be “Play Dak and CeeDee without including a Ravens bring-back.” On this roster, we then also include two pieces that could benefit if the Lions // Cardinals game is shooting out, with McBride likely to function as a key piece of the Cardinals offense in that scenario, and with Montgomery A) having potential to score multiple touchdowns, and B) functioning as awesome leverage off more popular pieces from the Lions if he hits (i.e., he’s not just scoring points at low ownership, but is also hurting other popular players along the way).

How It Works:

If this block were to hit at the high ends of its range, you’re pretty much winning tourneys. Dak + CeeDee has true “had to have it” ceiling, while “Montgomery hitting” would not only help you, but would hurt plenty of others. McBride would be a lower-owned, high-upside sweetener, allowing you to pretty much do whatever you wanted on the rest of your roster from here.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

“Why Not Both?”

---

Bink Machine

A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.

Won’t you be Amari Nabers?

The thinking behind this rule is detailed in the Building Blocks section above. This rule says, “On 100% of Nabers rosters, play one of the other players in this pool.” I would then set my prescribed player exposure to ensure that most of these rosters have Amari as the bring-back, with a bit of Jeudy and Moore mixed in.

Bonuses

---

If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Dak Prescott || Lamar Jackson || Kyler Murray || Jared Goff || Derek Carr || Jalen Hurts || Sam Darnold

RB ::

---

A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

---

Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. I am changing up the format of my Player Grid this year to be more direct about the players I like at each position and keep myself from casting too wide of a net. We have plenty of strategy talk and full game write-ups on every game here at OWS, this year I’m going to use this article to give direct answers on who I think the best tournament plays are each week. Also, note that just because a player isn’t on here doesn’t mean they are a bad play, I’m just intentionally trying to limit the players I list to about 3 QBs, 5 to 7 RBs, 6 to 8 WRs, and 2 or 3 TEs and that means that some plays don’t make the cut – we can’t play everyone. Feel free to drop me feedback in Discord or on Twitter about the new format and if you like this better or last year’s. Enjoy!!

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. 

(Side note:: You’ll notice at the bottom of this article that Fanduel will have its own Player Grid this year)

Draftkings Player Grid

Quarterback ::

• Kyler Murray – Kyler showed us last week that he is back to his vintage self and this might be the best version we’ve seen along with his best supporting cast. You can’t run on the Lions, so Arizona is likely to lean heavily on Kyler in this potential shootout.
• Lamar Jackson – Two paths to him breaking the slate. A shootout or a Ravens rout. Both are very much in play.
• Derek Carr – He has been very good this season but has not had to throw a lot yet. Clear stacking partners and a sub-$6k salary make it easy to stick him in a lineup.
• Salary Savers: Gardner Minshew, Deshaun Watson, Andy Dalton

Running Back :: 

• Jordan Mason – Elite workload and great matchup. Still mispriced. I’ll be playing a lot of him but still probably considerably less than “the field”.
• Jahmyr Gibbs – Call me crazy, but I think Gibbs is really good at football. High scoring game environment and one of these days the “even split” at RB for Detroit is going to break towards one of the two.
• Saquon Barkley – The Saints have been terrific so far this season, but what evidence do we have they are a tough matchup for running backs? The Panthers were abysmal and the Cowboys RBs are their weak point on offense. Barkley has to be the Eagles engine with AJ Brown out and we’ve already seen his ceiling in this offense in Week 1.
• Zach Charbonnet – Impossible to ignore a guy who plays 67 out of 70 snaps as a home favorite against a defense that has been dusted by RBs so far this year.
• Alvin Kamara – Breaking: Still good at football.
• Salary Savers: Cam Akers, Zamir White, D’Andre Swift, Justice Hill, D’Onta Foreman

Wide Receiver :: 

---

Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play

Of Odunze and Onezies

Tight End has been a cesspool, void of consistent production and projectable value. If ever a player truly separates from a price-adjusted ceiling standpoint, he’ll be crucial to have on your tournament roster. This funnels us into three ways of approaching this ever-important “onesie” position. 

A) Pay Up for targets and talent. There are no easy clicks with projectable volume below $4000 so let’s spend on guys that have an actual role in their offense. Rostering Trey McBride feels safe and comforting—until you reach your ninth spot with only $3,600 left and feel forced to eat the Elijah Moore chalk.  

B) Pay Down. Tight End sucks anyway, and the expensive guys don’t always post had-to-have-it scores, so just scroll south and hope one of these dust balls gets more than his 2.5 target average and/or falls into the end zone. Greg Dulcich is going to approach double-digit ownership because he got eight targets last week. Sadly, those targets came from Bo Nix and it resulted in a whopping 4.6 fantasy points. Yay!

C) The Middle. My guess is that as gamers start building, ownership of the mid-4K players will increase since they seem like a good compromise. If I think Dallas Goedert stays around 6% ownership, I’ll be well ahead of the field. More on this range later.

*When punting, I prefer to correlate. I’ll pair low-owned Noah Fant with Geno Smith in hopes of a spike week from him at 2% ownership, and I’ll get my Johnny Mundt-Cake sandwiched in stacks between Sam Darnold and Justin Jefferson. Damnit, now I’m hungry. 

OK, let’s look at how I’m planning to get different.

These are contrarian moves I will be mixing into my rosters to differentiate from the masses. Many will miss, but if they hit, we’ll lap the field. Spend your money how you want. I’m not your dad (most likely). 

Secondary Core-Relations

We’re always hunting for those high-ceiling combinations to add to our existing game stacks. It’s better to aim at getting four things right instead of trying to hit a nine-way parlay. I’ll lean on a handful of core secondary stacks that will be finessed into lineups whenever feasible.

George Pickens/Quentin Johnson

Projections don’t account for Pickens’ missed opportunities that didn’t show up in the stat sheet. He had several big plays that only contributed to team penalty yards. QJ may have benefited from positive touchdown variance, but what if he and Justin Herbert (Note: Justin Herbert is questionable with a high ankle sprain) just have great red zone chemistry? If this game turns out to be more than the projected grind-it-out, three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust affair, we could see fantasy points at an affordable price and very low ownership.

Jonathan Taylor/Rome Odunze

We have a classic ‘unstoppable force meets immovable object’ situation brewing, as the Colts elite offensive line plows the road for Taylor against a Bears defense that has been impressive so far. Taylor is bound to have some ceiling games this year, and I want to be on him when his ownership is in the single digits and there are multiple chalk running backs on the slate

Malik Nabers broke out right away, and Marvin Harrison Jr. followed with a breakout in Week 2. The next wide receiver taken in the 2024 draft was Rome Odunze. With no injury designation this week, Keenan Allen out, and Odunze priced at $4,200 with 3% projected ownership, this is a tempting opportunity to get in early on a future star.

I’m also kind of into the reverse scenario here. D’Andre Swift is at 6% projected ownership, and the Colts have struggled against the run. The Colts also welcome Josh Downs back from injury, and he’ll be extremely low-owned. If the Bears take an early lead, we could see plenty of volume for Swift and some deep shots aimed in Downs’ direction.

Ceedee Lamb/Derrick Henry

Both teams are desperate for a win and will lean heavily on what’s working. If Henry can exploit Dallas’ defense anywhere near the level Alvin Kamara just did, he’ll be a great play at 5% ownership. The Cowboys skill position group is either inexperienced (Rico Dowdle, Jalen Tolbert), banged up and chalky (Jake Ferguson), or dusty (Ezekiel Elliott, Brandin Cooks). They have one elite weapon in his prime. If things fall apart, Dak will force the ball to Lamb, and we’ll be glad we got him at single-digit ownership.

Offset RB Chalk with Contrarian Correlation

Hard to avoid rostering mispriced running backs in a salary cap contest. Let’s play these guys in a different way than the field, but one that still tells a plausible story. 

I’m gonna roll out some Jordan Whittington (1.3%) across from some of my Jordan Mason shares. Whittington got plenty of buzz in preseason and now he has a chance to play the Cooper Kupp role. Air Jordans! LFG!

Zach Charbonnet has a questionable ceiling for someone who’s going to be played by a third of the field. I’ll be underweight on him, and when I do use him, I’ll add silly ceiling at low ownership in the form of Tyreek Hill. Losing Tua hurts but that’s why Reek will be 1% owned. Devon Achane isn’t the only guy that Miami will scheme touches for.

LOWER-OWNED TREASURES

Running Back

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

The Board

• There are two stand-out games this week. Phi/NO and Det/AZ both have totals above 49.
• There are two upper-middle-tier games. Hou/Min and Bal/Dal check in with totals just below 48.
• There are three lower middle-tier games. Chi/Ind, Mia/Sea, and SF/LAR all have totals between 42-44.
• The bottom tier is made up of Den/TB, GB/Ten, LAC/Pit, Car/LV, and NYG/Cle.  All five games have totals below 42.

Pawn – RB Cam Akers ($4,700)

Joe Mixon missed practice all week with an ankle injury. When a guy is DNP every day during the week, that usually means he’s not playing on Sunday. Dameon Pierce was also DNP every day during the week with a hammy. That leaves Cam Akers. Akers is priced below $5,000 and is slated to be the lead back for a potent offense in a good game environment. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that he’s as close to a “must play” as we see in DFS. I suspect he will be around 50% owned, maybe higher, but sometimes you must eat the chalk. It’s tough find reasons to avoid Akers other than an ownership fade, which you can do in large tournaments, but in smaller field stuff it’s hard to stay off Akers as a free square.

Knight – RB Zach Charbonnet ($6,000)

The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Week 3 Topics

1. A Unique Slate

2. What Year Is It?

3. Reserving Judgment

4. Floating Plays

5. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”

---

1. What makes this particular slate particularly unique?

The Question ::

Bringing back a weekly staple of The Oracle, what makes this slate particularly unique?

The Answers ::

JM >>

SO MUCH is unique about this slate. Where to even begin? The 49ers are one of the most consistently effective offenses in the NFL, they are playing a downtrodden Rams defense, they don’t generally scheme touches to players outside their superstars, and they are missing three of their four superstars. On the other side of that game, the Rams are missing Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and their entire offensive line. Kenneth Walker is doubtful, Joe Mixon is doubtful (and his top backup is out), Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson remain out for the Vikings, Keenan Allen remains out for the Bears, A.J. Brown remains out for the Eagles, Justin Herbert is genuinely questionable for the Chargers, Jordan Love seems 50/50 at best for the Packers, Tua Tagovailoa is out for the Dolphins, and Bryce Young has been benched for the Panthers. Am I missing anything? On top of all that, the way that defenses are attacking offenses is continuing to change, and the way offenses are fighting back has changed as well (see the Angles Pod for a deep dive on this!). And somehow, even with all the injuries, there are not any particularly attractive “value options” on the slate. That said, there are a lot of players in the mid-range of salary who are underpriced for their expected roles. All of this, and it’s only Week 3!

Xandamere >>

Well, maybe not unique because this week is a massive chalk slate….just like last week! We have players in really strong spots who are just not priced for their roles. Players in good spots fail all the time, of course, but I would say there’s a lot of “good chalk” on this slate. That said…whenever ownership gets super concentrated, that by necessity means other players are low owned, and there are some extremely high-ceiling options (hi, Ceedee Lamb!) out there at very modest ownership. All in all my list of players I’m interested in is quite large this week – much larger than normal – and while I’ll continue to work to prune it down, it just means there are a LOT of viable paths you can take on this slate. 

Hilow >>

I expect immense chalk at the running back position due to the injuries around the league, with some combination of Jordan Mason, Cam Akers, and Zach Charbonnet likely paired together at an extreme rate (at least on DraftKings – FanDuel has priced Mason up to hilarious levels). Also, for the first time this season, we have three games with a game total north of 47.0 points. That’s meaningful, particularly in a season that has started off with the lowest scoring in over a decade (and the most field goals in almost 30 years). Furthermore, two of those games are in the afternoon portion of the slate, in addition to the 49ers and Rams in the afternoon, bringing really the first slate with much in the way of late-swap consideration this season. 

Mike >>

Last week after a great deal of excitement for a condensed offense in a perceived good matchup, we were burned by the Rams laying a dud and one of their studs getting injured in the first half. The NFL season is in full swing with injuries galore to start the year, which has us in a spot where we will have to weigh the potential “value” of a condensed offense with the impact that a loss of a key player will have. This week on the main slate we have several of those spots::

• 49ers without Christian McCaffery, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel, facing the Rams who just gave up 41 points to the Cardinals
• Rams without BOTH Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, facing a tough 49ers defense
• Eagles playing without AJ Brown and coming off a Monday night loss to the Falcons, facing a Saints team that is averaging 45.5 points through two games
• Dolphins without Tua Tagovailoa and forced to start Skylar Thompson at quarterback against what appears to be a solid Seahawks defense
• (For the Fanduel crowd) Isiah Pacheco out with a fractured leg as the Chiefs face a Falcons team coming off a huge win

It seems like in one way or another, these spots are going to have a huge impact on how this slate plays out. The Rams tanked and took a large chunk of the field with them in Week 2 when they failed. If ownership congregates on one of these spots it could do the same this week if things go bad. Likewise, if that spot hits and you aren’t on it that can be the “nail in the coffin”, so to speak. And if one of these spots with a key player missing goes overlooked by the field that could be the low-owned spot that propels you to the top of the leaderboard.

---

2. What Year Is It?

The Question ::

Perhaps the hottest topic so far this season in the NFL/Fantasy Football community has been the utter lack of offensive excitement, scoring, and passing success. This year has had, by far, the fewest passing touchdowns through 2 weeks over the last 10 seasons. We could talk at length about *why* this is happening, but the more important question is “what do we do about it?” 

This question is from a macro perspective. Do you think this early season trend holds and, if so, how does it alter your DFS approach?

The Answers ::

Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

The Props Insider team has helped the OWS Fam profit over $35,000 the last 2 years!! And the best part…

WE ALL GET TO WIN AT THE SAME TIME!

To get all the bets each week, subscribe with a Week, Month, or Year long Subscription

---

Within the Scroll each week, we will share our early week bets and the thesis behind them. Our hopes are that this article will help the OWS Fam become better prop bettors as we teach you to fish.

Caution: Odds in the prop’s streets move fast, and it is likely these odds will have changed by the time you read this. With that in mind, we have left a “good to” mark to help you decide if the bet is for you.

(Feel free to DM Xandamere or JReasy on Discord with any feedback)

Jakobi Meyers (LV) :: UNDER 3.5 Receptions

LV is a 5-point favorite at home. Carolina has seen just 22 attempts per game against, 2 of which to the slot where Meyers operates at a 50%+ clip, while LV has been fast and pass leaning and looking to get back to their identity. This looks like a perfect game to establish it.

Panthers are playing top 10 rates of zone, which Meyers has just a 10% target share, and there probably isn’t enough Pass game work to support Adams, Meyers, and the Brock Bowers break out.

The bet is good to: -140

Javonte Williams (DEN) :: UNDER 45.5 rush yards

This is a bet that’s a combination of role and game environment. First, Javonte has 19 carries on the season, so 9-10 per game. He averages 2.1 yards per carry so far and on 9-10 carries would already be a slight underdog to beat this line. We’ve seen McLaughlin eating into his role, and with how poorly he’s run, I think there’s more downside than upside to his workload on the ground.

Broncos have also been atrociously bad on offense and are on the road facing the Bucs, who are a solid D (especially against the run) as 6.5-point underdogs.

We would take the bet down to 40.5 at modest juice.

Trevor Lawrence :: (JAX) UNDER 21.5 Completions

Lawrence has completed 12 and 14 passes over the first two weeks of the season. They lost both games. He’s also been sacked 7 times. Both JAX and BUF have -PROE and Buffalo has shown a willingness to run the rock when ahead to drain clock, shortening the game and possessions for the other team. Engram appears to be out again this week, opening up deeper aDot looks for Gabe Davis and BTJ. Kirk has seen just a 10% target share vs zone, a scheme the Bills play at a top ten rate, limiting easy dump offs. This feels like a game where both teams are unlikely to push the pace and keep the ball on the ground.

The bet is good to: -135

Brandin Cooks (DAL) :: UNDER 3.5 Receptions

First things first, this is a CeeDee Lamb game. Baltimore runs the 11th most man defense in 2024, a scheme Lamb has a 52%+ target share through 2 games, leaving just a 6% share and 1 reception for Cooks. We should also see TE Jake Ferguson back to move the chains and soak up some volume. Jalen Tolbert may be breaking out and passing Cooks in the pecking order (age 30 season) and earning more targets, while the RBs have absorbed 14 targets on the season.

CeeDee has played 60% of his snaps in the slot this year, but that’s the tougher path with Baltimore getting beat more on the outside. If Cooks is asked to increase his 25% slot share, were in a great spot.

The bet is good to: -130

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

They once asked Tiger Woods whether he got nervous when stepping up to an important putt. His response was, “No, I just think about how cool it would be if I made it.” Derek Jeter also gave a similar answer to how he feels coming to bat with the bases loaded and the game on the line, and his response was, “I just think about how the pitcher is in a tougher spot than I am.” Two all-time greats at their sports, with two all-time quotes. It’s a common piece of advice to hear that you should envision success before it happens so that you are well-prepared for the moment and prepared to handle the outcome. Whatever this success looks like to you, it’s a worthy thought exercise to walk through. Sometimes, we’ll get lucky in life and experience a joy we truly never expected, but often our successes come from hard work, preparation, and dedication over long periods of time. They come from a combination of optimism and motivation to attain these results. And when they come our way, it makes it all the more rewarding.

My advice this week is to envision what your Sunday evening will look like after a comma-led DFS win. What would you do with the prize? Do you know how you would act immediately after winning? Were you sweating out every last second of the game, and who were you doing that with? How would a victory change your next few days? Would you act differently or be the same? It’s important to envision this scenario because it can happen. As a thinker and OWS subscriber, you are likely building lineups that can compete for first place. I know that, because you’ve already read this far down in The Scroll, and likely this isn’t your first visit. But as you navigate building lineups this weekend, choose to pursue a path of “How cool would it be if this lineup won?” vs. “what if I don’t have exposure to this game? Or, how can I make sure I am not missing out on this player?” Your positivity and optimism can carry you this week. All of our competitors in any tournament build lineups in a unique fashion. It’s just that your way of building lineups is likely better.  Be confident, build with conviction, and vault the leaderboards on Sunday. And with that, we roll into Week 3…

Jahmyr Gibbs + David Montgomery + Trey McBride

Prich has won over $300k the past 3 years and has found an edge in understanding the field biases and more importantly his own biases when building rosters.

My family loves to go out to dinner. We have a 3-year-old and a 2-month-old and we still make it a point to go out at least once a week. Last night we went to a Nepali restaurant for what my daughter calls “chicken with a little kick.” We have been ordering from this restaurant for at least five years and have figured out what we like. After a casual look at the menu, my wife and I look at each other and already know we are going to order. It’s the same thing when we go out for Jenni’s Ice Cream or order a mixer at Culver’s. I’ve got my order ready. Is that boring? I commend those who can be open to trying new menu items, but why deviate from something you know you will like and were anticipating leading up to it?

NFL DFS can be like a visit to your favorite ice cream shop sometimes. You see all the options at the beginning of the week, but if you really think about it, you know how you’re going to play. We like choices, but our mind sometimes wants those easy choices that will leave it feeling secure and happy – one scoop of salted peanut butter with chocolate flecks and one scoop of the darkest chocolate, yum! A DFS player’s journey through the week leading up to Sunday often exposes us to all the options, but your biases are likely going to kick in and make the same kind of decision you always make. Perhaps you like to fade chalk entirely or play chalky RBs or you simply grab a piece of everything being talked about that week and hope it falls in the right way on one of your lineups. What biases control your decision-making? 

There is one main issue with my metaphor. You know the ice cream will make you happy and it usually does, but in DFS we only control our sense of happiness up until lineups lock. We only control our decisions, not the results, and recognizing the biases that control your brain can help you make better decisions. In DFS we won’t succeed with a favorite flavor or menu order, we need to be open to lots of different options.

Bias Around the Industry

Each week I will look at some of the main talking points around the industry. When we hear the same topics time and time again, our confirmation bias often kicks in, helping our brain to process the info quickly and comfortably. We look for bits of news or analysis that fit what we already know or want to be true. It’s difficult to handle so many unknowns and so much doubt. How is your brain processing what’s being talked about around the industry?

Injuries are a main subject of discussion and all of the news around these injuries can fill us with bias. Some reports will frame the injuries as a chance for the remaining players to gain extra volume (targets and touches have to flow somewhere) and some reports will speculate on the changes to game plans. There are a number of ways to frame the injury situations around the NFL. Let’s examine a few:

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

This article is specifically designed to give you some ideas on ways that we can use strategy to jump ahead of the field on Fanduel. Touchdowns play an even bigger role on Fanduel than on Draftkings because receptions are only worth half a point, while on DK receptions are worth a full point. Touchdowns used to be an even bigger deal before (this year, FD added bonuses for yardage totals – more on this below), but it’s still something we need to focus on because of the reception difference and how they price their players. Touchdowns have a high degree of variance and since they carry so much weight on Fanduel, this article will focus on ways each week that we can leverage that variance to jump ahead of the field when things don’t go exactly as expected as far as who crosses the imaginary line while holding the football.

Week 3 – Flip the Build

As alluded to in my Fanduel Player Grid, there is A TON of wide receiver value on the board this week. We also have a week where there are several high-priced RBs in good to great spots. This creates a funnel of rosters to extremely similar builds. Also discussed in my Player Grid is the fact that all of the top WRs are in very good spots as well, it’s just hard to pull the trigger on them over guys almost $3k cheaper. But what if a couple of them go for 30+ points? All four of them (Lamb, ARSB, Hill, Jefferson) will have single digit ownership. Pairing two of them together would be an extremely rare build and give you a clear path to the top.

skylar thompson

StatATL has a math degree and a background as a financial analyst, and has blended an analytical, numbers-driven approach with an “OWS mindset” to rack up over $100,000 in lifetime DFS profit while maintaining low weekly buy-ins

Need more late swap education? Read this free educational article on Late Swap

Outlook 

Week 3 offers us a 12-game slate with close to an even split (seven early, five afternoon) in game times. From a macro perspective, we are seeing total RB ownership come in around 270%, meaning a vast majority of rosters are likely to play a RB in flex this week. We are also seeing four RBs projecting for 25% or more ownership (Jordan Mason, Cam Akers, Zach Charbonnet, & Alvin Kamara), which gives a strong sense of how the field will construct their builds. We’ll discuss how we can leverage that knowledge more below with two of the three best (on-paper) games of the day coming in the afternoon window.

Important Early Outcomes to Watch:

• Cam Akers – The Texans RB is projecting to be on about a third of rosters this weekend, due to his likely role as the starting back in Houston, coupled with his $4,700 price tag.    
• Saints & Eagles – With a game total of close to 50 points, this is expected to be one of the more exciting games of the weekend from a fantasy perspective and has several players projecting for heavy ownership, specifically Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave and DeVonta Smith. 
• Buccaneers DST – Tampa Bay is projecting to be the highest owned DST unit on the slate, facing a Broncos’ offense at home that has looked atrocious. Slate Breakers – Such as Alvin Kamara’s 47 DK-point performance in a Week 2.

Price Range Breakdowns (Late Games):

Note – With only 3 games on the slate and ownership generally spread out, the caveats of “high owned play if ahead, or low owned pivot” have been removed this week

$7,000 and up:

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas and Things To Consider

Finding An Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry, and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those that focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way – without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021 and I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from, so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them, it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

Week 3 Overview

Five games on this slate is absolutely awesome. This may be the best batch of late games the entire year. While I always enjoy the “Afternoon Only” slate, sometimes when there are only three games (like last week) or four games, but they clearly have different tiers of games, it can become tedious to play and really hard to find an edge. Once the slate gets too small, it can be tough to separate yourself from the crowd, especially in the larger tournaments, as so many others are likely to have the same/similar teams just from the sheer number of entrants. This week’s slate is perfect because it has five games (10 teams) and a lot of moving pieces. The BAL/DAL and DET/ARI games are obviously the “premier” spots, but the other three games have enough intrigue, star power, and potential value to make it viable for many different paths to the top in DFS tournaments.

• The Panthers have a new starting quarterback and their offense could look completely different (and functional) without Bryce Young under center. Meanwhile, the Raiders offense came to life and Gardner Minshew looks like he’s going to have some big games throwing to his terrific receiving corps.
• The 49ers and Rams are both missing some key offensive players, which condenses their offenses a bit and gives some cheaper salaried players greater opportunity. Both teams also have great offensive minded head coaches who should be able to scheme some things to mask their injury issues.
• The Dolphins also have to deal with a new starting quarterback, but have explosive players who may go overlooked on this size of a slate due to questions around that QB situation.

QB Strategy

Quarterback is always an important position but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, quarterbacks obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section:

Labs – MNF – Xandamere & Cheeseman

Angles by JM

Solo Ship – JM & Squirrel Patrol

Labs 3.5 DK – Papy & Cheeseman

Block Party – JM & Peter Overzet

Searching for Ceiling – Hilow & Rich Hribar

Labs 3.4 DK – STAT ATL & Cheeseman

Labs 3.3 FD – Mike Johnson & Maximus

Labs 3.2 DK – Hilow & Cheeseman

Week 2 Roster Review – STATATL