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Majesstik is one of the most respected Slate Breakdown artists in DFS
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JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat) who is focusing this year on single-entry/three-entry max
This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing.
:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”
:: these are my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; players who have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure
:: these are games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters
:: these are players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective
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Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (above).
Derek Carr
James Conner
Jamaal Williams
Brandon Aiyuk
Bryan Edwards
Zay Jones
Rob Gronkowski
Antonio Gibson
Dolphins
Find last week’s Bottom-Up Breakdown and join The Bottom-Up Build DraftKings Contest here!!
If you missed the NFL Edge this week, I used my DFS Interpretation for this game to put together what I feel is a valuable discussion around a little-talked-about aspect of roster construction in NFL DFS (in particular). I wanted to drop that entire discussion in here, for any of you who didn’t read it in the Edge. Taylor is a Blue Chip play this week (low likelihood of raw-points failure // solid shot at a high price-considered ceiling…and since his price is so high, this also means “solid shot at one of the top raw scores on the slate”), but this discussion can also be kept in mind as you decide where/how he fits onto your builds this week:
I’m ahead on my prep for the week, so rather than restating the obvious (Jonathan Taylor has a high ceiling here), I’ll branch into a bit of a strategy discussion around this slate:
One of the things I want to always think about is “positional spending.” This is not a starting point for me, necessarily, so much as it’s something I try to get a feel for as I get familiar with a slate; but this week provides a great example around which to talk about this.
Here’s what I mean:
Jonathan Taylor obviously has a high ceiling. We can run out the scenarios in our minds (how many points will JT likely get from receiving work in a game the Colts should control? // how likely is it that he gets the hundred-yard bonus? // what are his chances of scoring one or two touchdowns? // will the Colts look to limit his workload late in this game if they have a nice lead?), and we can say pretty comfortably that anything shy of 20 points would be a bit surprising, and anything north of 35ish points would also take some outlier outcomes. (Realize :: understanding “range of outcomes” in this manner is valuable for ALL players you’re considering on a slate. You can obviously lean on the GPP Ceiling Tool for this as well, but I especially love playing through scenarios in my mind, in order to have a clearer sense of what I’M seeing, and why I’M seeing things that way.) In a vacuum, this makes JT a solid play, as his raw floor is high and his “reasonable ceiling” matches his elevated price tag, while there are outlier scenarios in which he could score 40+ points. That’s Step One — covered above in Mike’s writeup, and reestablished here. JT = good.
But there’s also a question of positional spending, and the fact that we have SEVERAL running backs with potential 20-carry, 5-target roles (Jamaal Williams if Swift is out // Antonio Gibson if McKissic is out // James Conner with Edmonds out // Alexander Mattison with Dalvin Cook out // potentially Eli Mitchell, who has five catches in two of his last three games for a team now missing Deebo // potentially David Montgomery, who can get a 20/5 workload if things come together just right).
The way I like to look at things, then, is to ask simple questions that help me better understand potential roster construction approaches (and the amount of “certainty + ceiling” I’m able to soak up through different approaches). For example: If I play Jonathan Taylor + a wide receiver in the mid- to high-$5ks, does that give me a higher “certainty + ceiling” than playing a similarly-priced Cooper Kupp + one of those running backs in the mid- to high-$5ks?
Said differently: in a vacuum, Taylor is an excellent play. But I also want to gain an understanding of what “Spending that salary on one of my running back spots, on a week with lots of cheaper running backs with high floors and ceilings” means for my overall roster construction. Basically: because SOME of these cheaper, big-role running backs are almost certain to score 20+ themselves (with a decent shot at some of them scoring 25+), the raw floor that Taylor provides loses some of its value, and you ultimately are betting on Taylor posting a truly elite game (which, again, is VERY much in the reasonable range of outcomes here, but is not as much of a “sure thing” as him going for 20+). On the flip side, the more affordable wide receivers this week come with a lot more question marks, which means that — while “paying up for Kupp” would obviously be a move made in the hopes of capturing 30 to 40 points — a 20-point score from Kupp is more valuable than a 20-point score from JT, as it’s easier to confidently isolate other (cheaper) 20-point scores at RB than it is at WR.
Of course, there’s a final layer here (alluded to by Mike, above), where ownership comes into play as well. That is to say: “from a positional spending standpoint, it’s more +EV to spend big money at a different position…but what if JT’s ownership is a lot lower than it should be?” In that case, the potential for a “had to have it” game from JT starts to weigh more heavily in the thinking, as a 5% or even 8% owned JT could create a situation where only 5% to 8% of rosters are in the mix for first place if the slate shakes out just right (JT blowing up, some of the cheaper backs disappointing, Kupp disappointing, etc.).
To be clear: all of this is said against the backdrop of completely agreeing with everything Mike laid out above. But since I’m pretty far ahead on my “feel for the slate as a whole” this week, I wanted to dive into that discussion in this space.
Outside of JT, nothing else from this game stands out, though I will note that it wouldn’t be shocking to see Wentz throw only 26 to 30 passes, and for Pittman to still see eight to 10 targets — which means he still has plenty of ceiling for the price, and doesn’t even need a “close game” in order to hit. His floor is lower than in other spots, as the blowout potential is real; but his ceiling still makes him noteworthy.
I also like Tyrod as a “last piece on the roster” type of play. Here’s what I mean: it’s common for people to start their rosters at QB, and for this to be the first decision point. In cash games, in particular, this makes sense, as it’s easier to find a 4x+ at QB than at other positions, with a higher floor to boot. But in tourneys, simply starting your roster from a different position can be enough to give your roster a very different look. While others are scraping around for the cheap TE, or WR, or DST at the end to fill out their roster, you’ve already prioritized your “top plays” at these positions, which might leave you playing the “what salary do I have left?” game at QB. I’d be surprised if Tyrod were to post a 25+ point game, but an 18 to 22 point game is very reasonable, and he’s $5.3k on DraftKings. I won’t be starting any rosters with Tyrod this week, but I’ve messed around with some tourney builds that have had him as the “last man on the roster,” and I’ve been happy with those builds.
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Hilow is a game theory expert and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
We’ve got a bunch of running back value, some tight end value, a couple of top-tier options at running back and wide receiver, and then a whole bunch of game environments that people aren’t going to know what to do with. This provides us with a solid opportunity to narrow down the cores of our rosters better than the field can, and some great leverage spots in certain game environments (ownership leverage on Rams and Bucs, game environment leverage on MIN/DET, LAC/CIN, SF/SEA, JAX/LAR). Stick to the basics this week as the field is highly likely to be poking around where they likely shouldn’t.
Dear eight-pound, six-ounce, little baby Jesus, can we please see this man handle 80%+ of the running back opportunities from Washington in the absence of JD McKissic? Please? If, again, if, that is the case, Gibson is one of the top running back plays on the slate. His ownership projections have crept up to a place where we need to weigh the possibilities of him not seeing that type of usage, but he’s fresh off a game where he finally started seeing schemed usage through the air.
Solid bet to finish the week amongst the two to three running backs with the most carries. The pass game usage has been hit or miss, which keeps him out of the top tier for me this week.
24-26 running back opportunities is highly likely here against a defense allowing 22.7 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. He would see a significant bump to expectation should Kyler return. Weather is expected to be no-bueno at game time, with freezing rain and gusty wind conditions.
Becoming one of my favorite plays on the slate, to be completely honest. Even if he sees 80% of the combined opportunities he saw with Swift over the previous four weeks, we’re looking at 24-26 running back opportunities with six to eight of those coming through the air. Keep an eye on the health of Minnesota’s linebacking unit, as both Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks are currently listed as questionable (their absences would be a significant boost to Williams here). Finally, Detroit’s offensive line has generated the most yards before contact in the league this season, and the Lions enjoy the week’s second-highest rated matchup for splash play potential on the ground (behind only the Eagles, and right ahead of the Colts).
The top overall on-paper play on the slate. Currently projected for the fifth-most ownership at the running back position and less ownership than Cooper Kupp.
Some possible issues along the offensive line, but Mattison checks in with the week’s second-highest expected range of opportunities behind only Jonathan Taylor. He’s priced up to somewhat of a no-man’s land, just below the top tier, and leagues above the value at the position, which is likely to hold his ownership in check.
A 6.2 aDOT slot wide receiver that typically plays 55-75% of the offensive snaps (okay, he’s likely to land on the higher end of that range this week with Dingleberry McWhatshisnuts no longer with the team and Darren Waller out) is expected to garner the most ownership at the wide receiver position this week. Let that sink in real quick. Didn’t the field just try this with Jamison Crowder a couple of weeks back? The path to 30+ points is extremely thin here.
The top floor and ceiling combination from the wide receiver position. That said, there are three other pass-catchers that played nearly every snap last week that are expected for far less ownership. More on this below.
The field is very sure that the pass game production from the Bucs is going to flow through Godwin, and Godwin only (kidding, kind of). Godwin is currently projected for three times as much ownership as Mike Evans and two-and-a-half as much as Rob Gronkowski. More on this situation below.
In my mind, he is the player most likely to see a significant boost to expected production with Deebo Samuel out, similar to what we saw towards the tail end of last season. Expected for lower ownership than Elijah Mitchell, whose pass game involvement has been hit or miss.
In the Week 7 contest in which Darren Waller missed, Foster Moreau played every offensive snap and was in a route on 64.7% of the pass plays (22 of 34). After Waller left the game with a knee injury on Thanksgiving, Moreau played every snap and was in a route on 66.7% of the pass plays (26 of 39). Those rates are right in line with Waller’s seasonal average thus far this year (64%). Those two games were against Philadelphia and Dallas, who rank 31st and 24th in blitz rate. Washington ranks fifth in blitz rate. I expect Moreau’s route participation to take a slight hit here as he’s kept in to block at a higher rate against a hungry, and blitz-heavy, defense.
I don’t mind this one at all, as a blitz-heavy defense against a backup quarterback that has a propensity to throw picks, with the Giants missing their two most dynamic pass-catchers (Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard).
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Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.
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A weekly staple of The Oracle :: In no more than two or three sentences, tell us what makes this slate particularly unique.
Options!!!!
Do I like the Colts? The Bucs? The Raiders? The Rams? The Eagles? The Bengals? The Cardinals? The Vikings? What about the sneakier spots? (Teams opposite those units, in particular the WFT and Chargers? Or the Ravens/Steelers game? Etc.)
Do I like Jonathan Taylor against the Texans? Or Joe Mixon against the Chargers? Or Alexander Mattison with a clear path to 25 touches? Or James Conner with a clear path to 25 touches? Or Antonio Gibson with a clear path to 25 touches? Or Eli Mitchell, or David Montgomery, or Jamaal Williams, with a clear path to 20 touches and clear potential for 25+ touches?
Do I like Foster Moreau with a likely five to seven targets flowing his way at under $3k on DraftKings, or do I like Gronk with AB out again, or Kittle with Deebo out?
Everywhere you look, there are options this week.
This makes this slate particularly unique.
We’re back to an 11-game slate, but I feel like this slate is going to play smaller than it looks. We have a lot of teams in very large spreads, and while we know from historical data that a team winning in a blowout does not actually reduce that team’s fantasy point production, it does mean that the standard approach of “game stack with a bringback” is not necessarily an automatic plug-and-play option here. In fact, there are only a couple of games that really stand out to me as extremely stackable (LAC/CIN, WFT/LV, and then maaaaybe SF/SEA if you believe Russ Wilson isn’t broken).
I think that most DFS players have the “always have a bringback for your stack” so ingrained in them that they will either force suboptimal bringbacks (i.e. a Texan, or a Lion, or a Falcon, or a Jaguar), or, they’ll just avoiding stacking some of the highest-total teams on the slate because they don’t feel good about any bringbacks. That gives us an advantage, where we can set aside the “always use a bringback” rule and target the top offenses on the slate.
There will be no shortage of affordable running back options this week. There will be no shortage of viable punt plays at tight end this week. There will be the usual spread of options at quarterback this week. DST is actually priced in a relatively efficient manner this week.
The cheap options at wide receiver this week are…not abundant. We can hold our noses and roster Josh Reynolds for $3400 but I haven’t had a dream about him bursting into a million Skittles this week so I don’t feel great about him (inside joke if you weren’t in Discord on Thanksgiving morning). There are other options, all on the thin side, that we’ll surely explore as you “scroll” down.
The depth of viable running back options available this week stands out to me the most, but it’s also a slate with a ton of high-spread games. So when we have a slate where there seems to be a high degree of certainty exhibited by the field, but most game environments could be extremely lopsided, AND the top perceived spots (the teams with the highest Vegas implied team totals) are mostly non-concentrated offenses (injury news could change this a good bit leading up to the weekend, particularly with the Rams who could be without both Darrell Henderson and Odell Beckham, Jr.), we’re presented with a slate where a good deal of leverage can be gained simply by picking through the multitude of “perceived smash spots” and narrowing the core of our builds to only the best spots (more on this both below and later in the week through the End Around and Saturday Inner Circle podcast).
We’re getting to the point in the season where chalk and leverage plays are becoming more obvious. There are less overall players who are viable in our player pools, because we have longer sample sizes on usage, injuries abound, and some teams are starting to not care about winning. The cause and effect of these variables is leading us back to having a slate with some sizable Vegas spreads. Synthesizing this information to determine the game environment(s) we want to target is harder with these large spreads and leaves really only Chargers and Bengals, and Washington and LV as the two spots we can expect people will look for a ‘shootout’. Further from here, my move is to lean away from these spots as a game stack, and lean into finding the right players on A) high projected total teams or B) teams with a high level of condensity in their usage.
This slate is going to be filled with a lot of strategy decisions based on how things are shaping up. The most glaring to me is the game theory decisions at the running back position. There are so many great mid-range RBs with great workloads and/or matchups. There are also a couple of premium RBs in great spots. Usually when the “chalk build” is one specific way, the easy way to change things up is in roster construction — so something like playing Mixon + JT would give you a very different build than most lineups. However, this week is unique because there are SO MANY running backs in that mid-range who are set-up very well that it is much more likely than usual that two of those mid-range running backs will match Mixon + JT. JM did a great dive into this issue in the IND/HOU Edge writeup as he expanded on the things to consider if using JT. If Mixon and JT have good games but are matched by any two of the mid-range options, you are pretty much drawing dead if you played both of them because the rest of your roster will be working with so much less salary.
There is also an interesting dynamic at the running back position in regards to “price point pivots”. Saquon Barkley and Miles Sanders are a couple of players who, in a normal week, I would be very interested in. Saquon looks healthy, is still very cheap for his talent and workload, and is great leverage off Miami defense. Sanders is in a similar spot to last week, except a better matchup and the other Philly RBs are battling injury/illness — last week he was chalk, this week he’s projecting for very low ownership. The issue is that there is a lot of risk with both players and, as alluded to above, there are SO MANY running backs in that range who they will have to outperform for taking the risk to be rewarded. It doesn’t take them off the board, but it does increase the risk of the plays and raises the bar for what they need to do to separate your lineups.
There are also a limited range of wide receiver options that are in clearly appealing spots, especially at the high end. The combination of the depth of RB options and limited smash WR spots or values will make a three running back build something that a higher proportion of the field will be using than in most weeks.
The two things that stood out to me that make this slate unique is that we don’t have a lot of the high flyers at receiver to rely on. With Tyreek, Adams, Diggs, Deebo, and the Cowboys guys off the slate, we’re left with just Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson in the “elite tier” for WR. That elite tier is skinny across the other positions as well. The other thing that stood out was the amount of lopsided games. Do we put primary focus on the more competitive games and pluck one-offs out of the lopsided games or do we stack those favorites because someone has to score those points they are implied for?
Last week, we had only two teams on the Main Slate carrying a Vegas-implied team total of 26+. This week, we have eight such teams (with other teams close, and with OTHER teams that could certainly get to four or more touchdowns if things break the right way). This could provide more flexibility than we typically have, in terms of “games/teams” we want to target, or it could allow us to gain an edge if we’re able to correctly identify the “clear best games/teams” of the bunch.
Are there any particular angles that are standing out to you this week, in terms of either A) finding strategy angles around the games/teams you want to bet on, or B) finding games/teams that you feel are clearly superior to the other options available?
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Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries
Condensity (noun), which means the state of being condensed, or compressed into a narrower compass.
A funny thing happened as I started my research this week. As I was listing out the possible player pools on every team, after I got past the rampant amount of questionable tags, I realized we have a few teams this week who only have three or maybe four viable players to be considered for our rosters on Sunday. The general conversation this week will most likely fall on the massive count of players who will head into Sunday as questionable to suit up. But what stood out to me at first glance were just how thin some of these NFL offenses are this week. Due to injuries, ineffectiveness, or other spread-it-around usage, we can start to take these late-season NFL rosters and identify different, unique ways to play them together to increase our roster floors.
We’ve talked about team stacks in the past on OWS as an underutilized strategy, because there is no correlation between two teams playing in two different games. But what we do is practice a lot of similar, more effective strategies of stacking QB-WR with a bring-back, identifying player blocks, and pairing running backs with their team defenses. These strategies all come from the same kin. They can create ways to maximize floor while not sacrificing upside. But you did not come to this space to read about floor, so let’s proceed with a different approach to this week’s article, trying to identify where we can be the Tampa Bay Rays, trying new strategies which aren’t radically different, but just different enough.
Note: my threshold for cutting off a condensed team is 20 implied Vegas points (Chicago and Atlanta were honorable mentions, but it’s difficult to justify having more than one player from those offenses on our rosters on Sunday)
Condensity Team 1 :: Washington Football Team :: Taylor Heinicke, Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas
Let’s do this together for Washington, and you’ll get the exercise for the remaining teams. In listing out all the possible players we could throw on our rosters from the WFT this week, we have their QB, Antonio Gibson (who will be popular with injury to McKissic), and we can comfortably say Terry McLaurin. We can also consider Logan Thomas if he returns this week, and the fringe play of Curtis Samuel could be on our radars, but with his lack of playing time last week, he’s off. Four guys here, and the fourth is very thin in Logan after his long layoff. If we stacked Heinicke, Gibson, and McLaurin on DK it would cost $18.7K and leave $5.2K remaining per player.
Condensity Team 2 :: Minnesota Vikings :: Kirk Cousins, Alexander Mattison, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen
The viable plays on Minnesota are obvious and overstated by now. This one would cost much more, but the opportunity for all four players will be there on Sunday against the Lions.
Condensity Team 3 :: Miami Dolphins : Tua Tagovailoa, Myles Gaskin, Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki
Miami surprises me, but we could have said the same thing prior to their last game, before Jaylen Waddle had a career game. Their QB (Tua), with their three-down back (Gaskin), plus two pass-catchers (Waddle and Gesicki) will be given the opportunity for volume this week as well, pending the news on Devante Parker returning or not. If he does not return, any three-man stack here is in play, or any of these guys as floating plays.
Condensity Team 4 :: San Francisco 49ers : Jimmy Garoppolo, Elijah Mitchell, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle
SF is down Deebo Samuel this week. We know ownership on Elijah Mitchell and Brandon Aiyuk should be high. It’s important to recognize their implied team total of 24 points and ask how they will get there. More than likely, any big game comes from one or more of these players.
You’ll notice none of the highest-projected scoring offenses were listed above in the Bucs, Rams, or Colts. And the way I’m viewing this is officially upside down. Like others, it’s viable to start these potentially slate-leading teams for where our game or team stacks should come from. But after we do this, the question is where to go next? And one of those places where I will look for either A) a complimentary team stack, or B) floating plays, will be in these high condensity offenses.
Alright enough about condensity Larejo, let’s get to the usual stuff…
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Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play
OWS Fam!
A fascinating week in terms of evaluating ownership. I strongly suggest weeding through the RB position and hedging your allocations in a place where your numbers and intuition meet.
We already know to make sure and put a player from the late games in the flex. Let’s go one step further and put the chalkiest player from the late games in the flex. You’re going to want to be swapping off of Gibson, Moreau, etc on lineups that need to jump over the “school of fish” to get into the money.
See you at the top!
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Xandamere is one of the most respected Showdown minds in DFS, and focuses his Main Slate play on mass-multi-entry
Week 13 and we’re moving towards the end of the NFL season (sigh). I’ve already almost binked the Superdraft GPP three times now and I’m determined to do it this year. Maybe this is the week!
We’re STILL seeing overlay every week on Superdraft. If you aren’t playing there . . . why not?
Before you read this article, you should read my NFL Superdraft Primer to get a basic understanding of the site, how it’s different from Draftkings and Fanduel, and the strategy elements that come into play. If you haven’t signed up yet, you can get $100 free with a minimum $100 deposit!! (Promo Code :: OWS)
First, all the normal NFL strategy about stacking and correlation still applies. It definitely makes sense to strongly consider pairing your QB with a receiver. Game stacks are entirely viable here. The good news is you don’t have to change your entire approach to be successful on Superdraft. All you have to do is change your mentality of player selection, since the multiplier introduces so many different strategy dynamics, as the primer goes over. With that, let’s take a look at Week 6. I’m not going to go game by game here (we have the Edge for that!), but rather, position by position, trying to spot where I think there are good opportunities to leverage attractive scoring multipliers.
For the first time in a while, the highest projected quarterbacks on Superdraft are not horrible! Justin Herbert, Carson Wentz, and Jalen Hurts lead the way in the projections I’m utilizing, and we can feel pretty good about any of those guys. Taylor Heinicke is next up, and in a strong game environment. I will also happily consider Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford, and Joe Burrow as tournament options.
Again, we have some actual good running backs leading the way in Jonathan Taylor and Joe Mixon. Austin Ekeler is also high up the list. As is usually the case, I’m okay rostering one low-multiplier running back, but I generally don’t want multiple as the odds of true ceiling performances at low multipliers are modest. One factor here is that Superdraft did a good job of lowering multipliers on running backs like Alexander Mattison and Jamaal Williams who are stepping into new roles due to injury, so they aren’t just automatic lock plays . . . but 1.3x for Mattison still feels too low (he’s basically Dalvin Cook, who is usually around 1.1x, and the matchup here is fantastic). Antonio Gibson at 1.4x is also very interesting to me if J.D. McKissic is out, as it should result in him picking up more pass-game and two-minute drill work.
As always, I’ll discuss stacking options later, but in this section, I’ll just highlight receivers I’m comfortable using as floating plays in any roster:
Hey, surprise surprise, tight end looks gross. You can play Kittle, Gronk, or Pitts at low multipliers but with hopes of high raw scores. Foster Moreau, who will be chalk on other sites, will probably also be chalk on Superdraft at 1.75x but it’s hard to poke holes here in a strong role (and we’ve seen him in this role once before, and he did well). Dallas Goedert is at 1.3x, which is awfully close to the Pitts/Kittle/Gronk tier, but he’s in a perfect matchup, and we’ve seen 100+ receiving yards from him before. Pat Freiermuth at 1.6x and Zach Ertz at 1.6x round out the tight ends I’m comfortable playing in a vacuum.
One thing that’s tougher about Superdraft sometimes is adjusting to the format when thinking about game stacks. Multipliers can attract us to different game stacks than we would use on a salary-based site, as just looking at projections makes “weird” things like Mike Glennon look viable. You can choose to trust the projections and use plays like that, but personally, I have a hard time seeing a ceiling there. I try to combine players who project well in Superdraft’s scoring format while also playing what I consider to be strong overall plays based on game environment, talent, and matchup. It’s more art than science sometimes (i.e. Roethlisberger projects well by median outcome, but does he really have the kind of ceiling we need in tournaments even at a high multiplier? I’d guess no, but could be wrong). Here are some stacks I think look attractive this week:
Jreas11 leverages research from the NFL Edge in order to replace DFS cash game play with profitable prop betting
The Betting Discord has been on absolute fire the last few weeks, so much so that members of the discord have put together a google sheet to track the groups success. Unsurprisingly, this week’s results show the quality of information and communication being shared is on another level. Best of all, everyone has their niche! Anyone who wants to contribute to the OWS Discord Betting Tracker is welcome to DM their email on Discord for an editor link- everyone else is welcome to use this as a resource of fun bets to tail in the discord with the community!
Follow me on Twitter for more. DMs open for any questions on how to get started or general Prop Betting Strategy!
Najee Harris: Over 28.5 Receiving Yards
Result: Loss (14 Receiving Yards)
The Pittsburgh Steelers laid an egg in a big divisional game last week, losing to the Cleveland Browns 41-10. The Steelers played from behind almost exclusively, giving us the script we wanted for Harris to be used in the passing game. However, Harris saw just five targets, catching three for 14 yards in the disappointing outing for the offense. Ben Roethlisberger threw the ball 41 times, but with the game out of reach going into the fourth quarter, Harris just didn’t see the volume I was expecting, volume that the Cincinnati defense has funneled all year long.
Deebo Samuel: Over 66.5 Receiving Yards
Result: Loss (12 Receiving Yards)
You are not going to have much success betting over 66.5 Receiving Yards on running backs very often. A shame Samuel got injured during his RB cameo, what a player. I thought the return of Elijah Mitchell last week would be enough for the San Francisco 49ers to return their all-purpose weapon to primarily catching the football, but instead, they just slotted him as their RB2. While quite effective on the ground before departing with injury with a six carry performance for 66 yards and two touchdowns, Samuel was only able to corral one of four targets for just 12 yards.
Week 1: +10.0 Units
Week 2: -1.1 Units
Week 3: 0.0 Units (No bets placed, family weekend)
Week 4: +4.65 Units
Week 5: +3.1 Units
Week 6: +2.4 Units
Week 7: -0.3 Units
Week 8: -5.7 Units
Week 9: +11.75 Units
Week 10: +5.8 Units
Week 11: -0.13 Units
Week 12: +6.67 Units
2021: +37.14 Units
Book: BetRivers (-110)
“MIN ranks 21st in DK ppg allowed to RBs (25.7).”
“Each defense ranks towards the bottom of the league against the run. Each defense also ranks in the bottom ten in the league in rush attempts faced per game (MIN: 27.8, DET: 31.4).”
“Detroit ranks 11th in second-half pace of play, ninth in pace of play when trailing by seven or more points, and third in second-half pass rate.”
“Expect the same 10-14 rush attempt and six to eight target ranges as Williams’ likeliest range of opportunities, in a matchup against a defense allowing 25.9 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.”
“Something like 65 rushing yards and 5-40 through the air is a pretty good, median starting point for Williams.”
I think we are seeing a combination of a couple of things that are setting this seemingly low receiving line for Jamaal Williams. First, he is not as dynamic as D’Andre Swift, the player he is replacing this week as a suspected bellcow. Second, he’s always been a committee back of sorts with strong competition in the receiving game from his backfield mate. Third, the Detroit Lions are winless. In reality, Williams has caught 143 balls on 173 targets, good for an 83% catch rate while averaging 7.5 yards per catch. I like Hilow’s range of six to eight targets against the Minnesota Vikings defense giving up over seven yards per catch to running backs, combined with JM’s median starting point of 5-40 through the air, as reasonable expectations for Williams here. With Jared Goff checking down no matter the script, there seems to be some added floor that should keep Williams active late into the game even in obvious passing situations.
Book: DraftKings (-115) BetRivers (97.5 -114)
“Over the last three weeks, Gibson has had 26, 19, and 36 touches.”
“LV ranks 29th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (28.5).”
“The pure rushing matchup should be considered a plus against a run-funnel defense, yielding a 4.28 net-adjusted line yards metric.”
“Keep an eye on the status of JD McKissic heading into the weekend, who sustained a scary-looking head/neck injury, which was eventually labeled as “just” a concussion. His typical 40-60% snap rate would likely fall primarily onto Antonio Gibson’s shoulders.”
“As for Washington, the premier piece is running back Antonio Gibson, who we finally saw handle the type of workload most were expecting coming into the year (the pass game work was the biggest notable change here). His workload should be locked in this week, assuming JD McKissic misses with a concussion.”
“The Washington running back tandem of Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic has combined to average 21 carries and 6.3 receptions per game. Over Washington’s last three games, these two have averaged 29.3 carries and 6.3 receptions per game. Gibson may not see ALL the work, but he’ll see most of it, which gives us a talented back in a good matchup who has a clear “expectation range” of around 25 touches.”
Last week, we finally got the usage for Antonio Gibson that fueled the preseason hype and vaulted Gibson to the second round in many fantasy drafts. Gibson received 29 carries for 111 yards, catching seven of seven targets for an additional 35 yards. With J.D McKissic ruled out this week with a concussion and Washington running backs accounting for the incredible usage outlined by JM in The Edge, 25+ touches from Gibson in this spot is within range. The Raiders are giving up over 141 total yards to RBs so far in 2021, in what could be Antonio Gibson’s real 2021 coming out party.
Book: BetRivers (-113)
“Ranks ninth in PFF passing grade.”
“Fourth in total passing attempts.”
“Averaging a significant career high in passing yards per game at 310.4 (previous best was 262.5).”
“WAS ranks 32nd in DK ppg allowed to QBs (25).”
“Washington’s heavy dime defensive packages and hefty reliance on zone principles have left significant gaps in coverage to the deep perimeter and shallow interior of the defense, which lines up rather well with the areas of the field the Raiders should be looking to attack here.”
“The second thing we need to consider is the already-low rush rates from the Raiders (seventh-highest overall pass rate on the season at 63%), which, when aligned with the pass-funnel nature of the Washington defense, should lead to a very bankable avenue of attack for the Raiders.”
“As such, keep an eye on expected ownership here, particularly with the pass game, as quarterback Derek Carr has surpassed 300 yards passing in each Raider win this season (and failed to do so in each Raider loss).”
“The matchup with the Football Team should be considered one of the league’s most pass-funnel in nature (seventh in DVOA against the rush and 30th against the pass), leading to a poor 4.06 net-adjusted line yards metric.”
“The best part here is that “what the Raiders want to do through the air” lines up really well with the deficiencies in the Washington zone pass defense.”
“Speaking of Carr: he’s been central to my thought process this week.”
Derek Carr has been great in 2021, throwing for a league-leading 3414 passing yards, while quarterbacking the Las Vegas Raiders to a 6-5 record. This week he faces the pass funnel that is the Washington Football Team’s zone defense, which suits his and his teammate’s skill sets very well. The Raiders love to pass the ball in neutral matchups (63% on the season) and should only look to pass at an even higher rate in an expected close game versus a distinct pass funnel. We can expect Carr to be able to attack down the field for long splash plays, with the underneath area ripe with completable balls to keep the chains moving. The Raiders are 1.5 point favorites going into Sunday, setting the stage for one of Carr’s 300+ yard passing games to come to fruition with a Raiders win. Even in a close game, this matchup is a strong one for Carr to see increased pass game usage with a high likelihood of success.
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