The Scroll 2024 Draft Guide

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For years at One Week Season, we have brought you the strategies and game theory to be a better DFS player, and now we are here to help you take down the titles in your season-long fantasy football leagues. To get things started, we have created this Draft Guide to help you prepare for your upcoming drafts. For those of you who are getting back into the swing of the NFL, don’t worry; we’ve got you covered!! Here is what you will find to help you dominate your leagues::

• QB Tiers and Player Evaluations
• RB Tiers and Player Evaluations
• WR Tiers and Player Evaluations
• TE Tiers and Player Evaluations
• “Mike’s Guys”
• The Unspoken Edge
• Superflex / 2QB Strategy
• Team Defense Strategy

We intentionally don’t have overall player rankings – because every league is different, and therefore, how you value players and positions will vary for everyone (be sure to check out “The Unspoken Edge” for a quick rundown of things to be aware of with your league’s settings and rules).

The Positional Tiers and Player Evaluations will help you understand the outlooks for players at each position and where there are larger gaps in the expectations and range of outcomes between players. This, along with your league-specific settings, will help guide you in which direction to go with each pick throughout your draft.

The Team Previews you’ve received via the newsletter will provide a deeper look at the outlook for each team and their individual players – those are where you should go if there is a player in the Tiers that you want more information about their outlook than what is provided in the Tiers.

The Mike’s Guys article is something I wrote for our Best Ball + subscribers earlier this month and outlines three players at each position who I am incredibly bullish on for 2024.  I’ll be targeting these guys in ALL of my home leagues to take home the bragging rights!! 

(Side note:: For those wanting to dominate your leagues in 2025, Best Ball is a great way to practice drafting and get a feel for the NFL landscape while giving yourself a chance to win some big prizes. I highly recommend you check it out next year if you don’t play it already!!)

Finally, we have a couple of strategy articles for you. The first is a Superflex/2QB Strategy article written by our newest contributor, Tony Kneepkens, who has been dominating 2QB leagues for a couple of decades.

The second is a Team Defense Strategy article written by “Papy324” (aka Justin Papariella), an extremely sharp NFL mind who has been making a living off finding edges others overlook for years. You’ll want to check out those articles if your league uses multiple quarterbacks and/or a team defense in the starting roster.

This Draft Guide will get you through the first part, and then our Daily Dose newsletter will be sent daily throughout the season to help you make all the tough decisions that lead to the championship! 

Hilow and Mike Johnson go team-by-team, exploring what we can expect in 2024:

• Bull Case
• Bear Case
• Expectations // Takeaways
• Coaching Philosophy // Personnel Changes // Schedule

NFC EAST

NFC NORTH

NFC SOUTH

NFC WEST

AFC EAST

AFC NORTH

AFC SOUTH

AFC WEST

By mike johnson >>

Tier 1 QBs – “The Studs”

This top group of QBs represents the modern age of football and essentially the “cheat code” at the QB position. Dual-threat QBs who can post big numbers rushing while having great offenses around them. Injury is just about the only thing that can slow any of these guys down.

• Patrick Mahomes, KC
  • Mahomes is a Hall of Fame QB in the middle of his prime and has the best offensive weaponry of his career, while the Chiefs’ defense is likely to take a step back and force him into more shootouts. He is my pick to finish this season as QB1.
• Josh Allen, BUF
  • QB1 each of the last two seasons. He has lost a couple of weapons, but the Bills’ defense is likely to take a step back, and Allen’s rushing ability makes it difficult for him to finish the year worse than QB3.
• Jalen Hurts, PHI
  • Hurts has finished as QB9, QB3, and QB2 over the last three seasons and maintains a strong supporting cast and rushing ability. Similar to Allen, it will be hard for him not to be near the top of the position.
• Lamar Jackson, BAL
  • Last year’s QB4 and NFL MVP, his weapons look a little different this year and the Ravens added Derrick Henry, which could reduce Lamar’s rushing production a bit. Still a stud, but he carries more risk than the top three options.
• Anthony Richardson, IND
  • Richardson has all the upside and tools to finish as QB1 – as evidenced by his monster performances in his two full, healthy games last year. It’s just a matter of whether he can stay healthy with his playing style.

Tier 2 QBs – “Knocking At The Door”

This tier features talented, young QBs with rushing ability and/or elite supporting casts. All of these players have the ability to post a top-5 season if everything breaks right for them, but they’ll likely need positive touchdown variance and some outlier performances to do so.

• Kyler Murray, ARI
  • Murray has a QB2 season in his past and the best offense of his career around him. Nearly two years removed from his ACL tear, he is the most primed of this group to join “The Studs.”
• C.J. Stroud, HOU
  • Arguably the best receiving corps in the NFL makes Stroud a consistent weekly threat for spike weeks. Only his limited rushing production keeps him out of the top group.
• Dak Prescott, DAL
  • Fresh off a QB3 performance (QB1 from Week 8 through 18), Dak is primed to post another very strong season. The contract situations for him and CeeDee Lamb force us to temper expectations a bit.
• Jordan Love, GB
  • QB5 in his first full season as a starter. Great supporting cast and a coach/organization that will continue to build around him.
• Joe Burrow, CIN
  • Similar to Stroud in terms of being an elite passer with limited rushing production that keeps him out of the top group. He is also returning from a wrist injury that could play a factor at some point.
• Caleb Williams, CHI
  • An elite prospect who has looked every bit the part of a stud during training camp and preseason. Williams is also surrounded by an elite receiving corps.
• Jayden Daniels, WAS
  • Elite rushing profile and a good deep ball combine to make Daniels the type of prospect that can be dynamite in fantasy. The team is projected to struggle and have a shaky defense, meaning he could be involved in a lot of shootouts.
• Trevor Lawrence, JAX
  • Barely squeezes into this group, but the organization has done a good job of retooling his weapons and Lawrence has underrated rushing ability. Unlikely to bust into the top-5 level, but a finish somewhere in the QB6 to QB10 range is very feasible.

Tier 3 QBs — “Pocket QBs with Great Supporting Casts”

By Mike Johnson >>

Tier 1 RBs – “The Studs”

These running backs have elite, three-down skill sets and offenses that should be built around them. They are essentially “game-script- proof”.

• Christian McCaffrey, SF
  • Not a lot needs to be said, over his last five seasons only injury has kept him from finishing as a top-2 player at the position.
• Bijan Robinson, ATL
  • My personal pick to finish as the top RB this season. Bijan is an elite talent with an improved offense around him.
• Breece Hall, NYJ
  • Last season, Hall was returning from an ACL injury, and he began the year as RB32 through four weeks. He was the RB2 from Week 5 to the end of the season.

Tier 2 RBs – “Knocking At The Door”

This group features star RBs with elite volume OR efficiency. These guys don’t quite have the same package as the top-3 RBs, but they are close.

• Saquon Barkley, PHI
  • He has done it before and is playing on the best offense of his career. If anyone outside the top 3 can finish as RB1, it is Saquon. The biggest question will be how many TDs he can score playing next to Jalen Hurts.
• Jahmyr Gibbs, DET
  • Gibbs is a game breaking talent whose role with the Lions grew as the season went along. David Montgomery isn’t going anywhere, but this backfield has been among the top producing in the league the last two years and should be the same this year. As long as both RBs are healthy, Gibbs usage will be somewhat limited. If Montgomery ever misses time and Gibbs can stay on the field, he has “CMC-level” ceiling — which makes him the type of player who can win you your league in round 2 or 3.
• Jonathan Taylor, IND
  • Elite talent and has no contract or injury issues entering this season. Should have a huge workload. Similar to Barkley, there are questions about losing rushing TDs to Anthony Richardson.
• Isiah Pacheco, KC
  • The bell cow RB for a Patrick Mahomes offense is not a player you want to overlook.
• Travis Etienne, JAX
  • RB2 season in 2023. No new backfield competition was added, and the offense should be better. 
• De’Von Achane, MIA
  • Set efficiency records as a rookie and plays in one of the best offenses/rushing schemes in the league. Questions about his durability and offensive line.
• Kyren Williams, LAR
  • The RB2 in points per game in 2023, the outlook for Williams is clouded a bit by the presence of rookie Blake Corum. 

Tier 3 RBs – “Last of the Feature Backs”

By Mike Johnson >>

Tier 1 WRs – “The Studs”

The NFL has transitioned to a passing league, and these players have a combination of explosive ability and teams who will force-feed them the ball in multiple ways.

• Tyreek Hill, MIA
  • WR2 each of the last two seasons and a top-5 finish in five of the last six. Hill still has his burst, and the Dolphins’ offense this year may be even better than last.
• CeeDee Lamb, DAL
  • Last year’s WR1 finished the year on a torrid stretch and should be fed the ball an excessive amount when he’s on the field. His current contract standoff bumps him below Hill for me.
• Justin Jefferson, MIN
  • WR1 in 2023 and had 24+ PPR points in six of nine healthy games in 2024. Should challenge for the league lead in targets.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET
  • ARSB was WR3 in 2023 and WR7 in 2022. The Lions actively feed him the ball, and his game fits perfectly with Jared Goff’s skill set. Double-digit PPR points in 16 of 17 games in 2023.
• A.J. Brown, PHI
  • Set an NFL record with SIX straight games of 125+ receiving yards last season before the Eagles’ offense face-planted. Consecutive top-5 WR seasons since joining Philly. I’m betting on this being his best season yet.
• Ja’Marr Chase, CIN
  • Chase has the highest potential weekly ceiling of any player in the league, but he’s dealt with injuries of his own, along with Joe Burrow’s wrist issue.

Tier 2 WRs – “Knocking At The Door”

These are wide receivers who possess the talent to potentially join the “Tier 1” group but will need some things to break their way in terms of usage and/or offensive environment to make that leap.

• Garrett Wilson, NYJ
  • Wilson has been impressive despite abysmal QB play during his first two seasons in the league. Everyone should be excited to see what he can do with consistently catchable passes.
• Puka Nacua, LAR
  • He is a perfect fit for the Rams system, and Matthew Stafford has made stars out of wide receivers his entire career. A preseason knee injury gave us a scare, but he should be good to go for Week 1.
• Marvin Harrison, ARI
  • The most touted WR prospect in quite some time, Harrison has been blowing people away in training camp and could quickly join that “Tier 1” group of WRs.
• Drake London, ATL
  • Similar to Wilson, London has dealt with abysmal QB play and play-calling the first two years of his career. Kirk Cousins will get him the ball and we will quickly find out what London is really all about.

Tier 3 WRs – “Where Anything Can Happen”

By Mike Johnson >>

Tier 1 – “The Studs”

This TE’s group is supremely talented and should be the primary receiving option in explosive offensive environments. 

• Travis Kelce, KC
  • Death. Taxes. Travis Kelce. Kelce has been the TE1 or TE2 every year since 2017. He is nearing the end of his career, but he was a menace in the playoffs last season and signed a contract extension this summer.
• Sam LaPorta, DET
  • Last season’s TE1 in his rookie season, LaPorta is situated to repeat as a premium option. He has been dealing with a hamstring injury this summer, which bears monitoring.
• Trey McBride, ARI
  • McBride showed he is a top-end talent at the TE position last season. Now, he has much more talent as target competition but a vastly improved offensive environment.
• Mark Andrews, BAL
  • Andrews was knocked out for the season early in his Week 11 game. Prior to that, he was third among all tight ends in fantasy points. The Ravens are an elite offense, and Andrews is arguably their best pass catcher.

Tier 2 – “It Wouldn’t Shock You…”

This tier consists of talented tight ends on good-to-great offenses who should be critical parts of their team’s game plans. It wouldn’t be shocking for any of these guys to emerge from this season as a top-3 tight end – but it will take a bit more going their way than the first group.

• Kyle Pitts, ATL
  • After dealing with abysmal QB play and play-calling to start his career, this is the year we find out who Pitts really is. Kirk Cousins has made tight ends shine throughout his career.
• George Kittle, SF
  • Kittle has been a top-5 tight end in five of the last six seasons and plays on one of the league’s top offenses. If Brandon Aiyuk ends up getting traded, Kittle would join that top group.
• Dalton Kincaid, BUF
  • The opportunity is there for the 2023 first-round pick to become the featured receiving target for Josh Allen.
• Evan Engram, JAX
  • Engram has consecutive top-5 seasons among tight ends and an elite rapport with Trevor Lawrence.

Tier 3 – “Weekly TE1 Upside”

by mike johnson >>

While our main focus here at One Week Season is on the elements of game theory and a deep understanding of our contests and competition, there is no question that player selection is an absolutely critical part of being successful in Best Ball. With that in mind, and with three months of drafting done since the NFL Draft concluded and the major contests were released, I put together this article outlining the three players at each position who I find myself drafting at a high rate and/or actively thinking about getting on my roster in optimal ways while I am drafting. Said another way, rankings are one thing, but when you are actually on the clock to make a selection, there is often a “gravity” towards certain players that causes you to reach for them ahead of not only their ADP but also where you have them ranked….or in other scenarios, they may fall in a draft and you abandon your previous strategy for that draft in order to roster them at a discount. 

As we head into the heart of drafting season, these are the guys that I have the most conviction about and believe in with great confidence relative to where the field is valuing them. 

Quarterback

Caleb Williams, CHI: This is a player who enters the league with one of the more impressive skill sets we have ever seen from a rookie QB. He has been touted for years and produced at an elite level in college. Now he enters perhaps the best situation a high-end rookie QB has ever walked into with two stud veteran WRs, a talented and high-pedigree rookie WR, a solid stable of tight ends, and a deep RB corps. This combination of elite talent and elite situation could very easily lead to the best rookie QB season we have ever witnessed. Being drafted in the 8th-11th round depending on the site/format, I believe Williams will be a top-6 QB in 2025.

Trevor Lawrence, JAX: Speaking of a young and highly talented QB, Lawrence took a bit of a step back in 2023 after having a dynamic sophomore season. This year, the Jaguars added Brian Thomas, Jr. and Gabe Davis to their receiving corps, giving Lawrence a stable of pass catchers that complement each other better and setting him up for potentially his best season yet. The AFC South should be more competitive than in recent years, and Houston, Indianapolis, and Tennessee all have ascending offenses – which could lead to more high-scoring games for the Jaguars.

Will Levis, TEN: Levis has a lot of tools that made him an intriguing prospect coming out of college. He wasn’t dominant by any means in his rookie season in 2023, but with the previous regime’s slow-moving and run-based scheme, he still did enough to catch my eye. This year, he has a terrific corps of skill players and a huge upgrade in coaching/play-calling.  Levis is by far my favorite late-round QB target, and a top-12 season would not surprise me in the slightest.

Running Back

Mike Johnson >>

A fantasy football draft is usually made up of somewhere between 14 and 20 rounds, but within all of those rounds are different points in the draft and different things we want to target::

• In the early parts of drafts, we want to target studs whose performance we can count on. In your standard fantasy football “home league” you aren’t likely to win your league in the early rounds, but you can lose it.
• In the middle rounds of your draft, we want to be targeting players who have underrated upside and could end up producing as well or better than those players taken in the early rounds.
• The late rounds of drafts are where you can really hit home runs, however, and make the rest of the season much easier on yourself by hitting on those “Sleepers” who your competition is overlooking. Most late-round picks don’t work out and end up being dropped by the team that drafted them at some point due to lack of performance, injury, or trying to cover bye weeks. You can win your league without hitting on late-round picks, but boy it sure is easier when you do hit a couple.

In that spirit, here are my Seven Sleepers who I am seeing selected in the last rounds (or not at all) in a lot of standard “home leagues” that have the potential to get off to a hot start and give your team a boost and/or become a staple of your team for the long haul.

1. Josh Downs, WR, IND

If you paid attention to reports out of Indianapolis throughout the spring and summer, you would have heard a consistent drum beat about how impressive Josh Downs was and how he may be Anthony Richardson’s favorite target. On August 7th, Downs suffered a high-ankle sprain and was expected to miss 4-to-6 weeks. This has caused the market to cool significantly on Downs and he is now available very late in fantasy drafts. This is a potential top receiver for an ascending offense available with one of your last picks – the definition of a “Sleeper”.

2. Ja’Lynn Polk, WR, NE

The Patriots have a history of being a death sentence for young, highly drafted receivers. However, with Bill Belichick gone and a more modern outlook, things could be changing. Also working in Polk’s favor is the fact that he is extremely talented and has very mediocre competition for targets. The Patriots aren’t likely to be an offensive juggernaut this year, but Polk could challenge for the league lead in targets among rookies. 

Mike Johnson >>

The last article in our One Week Season “Daily Dose” Draft Guide series featured our “Seven Sleepers” – players to target late in drafts whose upside could change your roster in a positive way. Something that is just as, if not more, important in a fantasy football league is avoiding those players earlier in drafts who can tank your rosters. To help you with that, we are bringing you our “Five Fades” series, which will feature five players at each position that I am fading based on where they are being drafted and concerns I have about their outlooks. Today’s article will focus on running backs::

1. Jonathan Taylor, RB, IND

The Colts’ offense could be really, really good this season and Taylor is still only 25 years old, but as a late first- or second-round pick, Taylor is a player that I won’t have on any of my teams. His ankle injuries have been an issue throughout his career, Anthony Richardson hurts Taylor’s touchdown expectations, and Taylor is an adequate pass catcher but not someone who excels in that area. Taylor is a great football player who I believe is destined to disappoint his fantasy managers this season.

2. Derrick Henry, RB, BAL

Henry has been a bit of a unicorn for most of his career and has stuck it to me a few times along the way, so “fading” him feels a bit uncomfortable again this year. The Ravens had 26 rushing touchdowns last season and Henry has been a touchdown machine throughout his career. However, he has over 1,500 carries the last five seasons, plus receptions and playoff touches. He turns 31 years old this season and I’m fine taking the chance on him sticking it to me. I believe an older running back with that much tread on the tires is one that has a greater chance of killing your roster than driving you to a championship. 

Mike Johnson >>

Previously in our One Week Season “Daily Dose” Draft Guide series, I gave you my “Seven Sleepers” – players to target late in drafts whose upside could change your roster in a positive way. Something that is just as, if not more, important in a fantasy football league is avoiding those players earlier in drafts who can tank your rosters. To help you with that, we are bringing you our “Five Fades” series, which will feature five players at each position that I am fading based on where they are being drafted and concerns I have about their outlooks. Today’s article will focus on wide receivers::

1. Davante Adams, WR, LVR

The Raiders’ coaching staff allegedly wants to be a run-first unit and have three running backs in the mix to see the field. Meanwhile, the Raiders spent a high first-round pick on tight end Brock Bowers and fellow wide receiver Jakobi Meyers has reportedly been the “star” of the Raiders offseason. The Las Vegas QB situation can be described as “mediocre at best” and Adams is in the back nine of his career. Adams is ranked as a mid-to-late second-round pick across most major sites, but he has a lot of obstacles to overcome in 2024.

2. Michael Pittman, WR, IND

Pittman is a solid NFL player but has not shown himself as an “alpha” in my mind. The Colts have a strong offensive line and should have a good running game, while Anthony Richardson’s rushing ability should also siphon a lot of production. The Colts also drafted Adonai Mitchell in the second round and Josh Downs has been a preferred target of Richardson’s throughout the summer. 

Mike Johnson >>

Previously in our One Week Season “Daily Dose” Draft Guide series, I gave you my “Seven Sleepers” – players to target late in drafts whose upside could change your roster in a positive way. Something that is just as, if not more, important in a fantasy football league is avoiding those players earlier in drafts who can tank your rosters. To help you with that, we are bringing you our “Five Fades” series and today’s article will feature five total quarterbacks/tight ends that I am fading based on where they are being drafted and concerns I have about their outlooks:

1. C.J. Stroud, QB, HOU

This is a “love the player, hate the cost” situation. While Stroud is a terrific young player who should have another strong season and a great career ahead of him, I prefer taking shots on QBs (Kyler Murray, Anthony Richardson) with higher rushing expectations at similar draft position or waiting and taking similar pocket-oriented QBs (Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, Joe Burrow) several rounds later.

2. Dalton Kincaid, TE, BUF

This is the guy on this list I am most afraid of getting burned by, but sometimes you have to live a little. Similar to Stroud, I expect Kincaid to have a fine season and very good career. However, I think the tight ends taken after him (Pitts, Kittle, Engram, Ferguson, Njoku) have similar outlooks at cheaper prices, and the other tight ends taken near him (Andrews, McBride) have a better chance at a top-3 finish at the position.

By Tony Kneepkens >>

Knowing your specific league’s settings can be as important as your “player takes” as you prepare for your fantasy draft, negotiate trades, and consider waiver pickups throughout your fantasy season. Specifics like the number of teams in your league, the number (and makeup) of starters and bench spots, and matchup and scoring settings can change the actual and perceived value of many players within their position groups and the value of the positions relative to one another. It is essential to know and understand your specific league’s settings so that you can make adjustments to the player pool, but it can be equally impactful to know how other managers in your league might react or potentially over- or under-react to unique settings.

Here are a few examples of different scoring settings you might encounter and how they might impact your player pool or draft strategy:

1. In PPR leagues we might consider drafting and/or starting certain role playing RBs who don’t play on early downs or near the goal line, these players would have considerably less (likely close to zero) value in leagues that don’t award point for catches, even less yet if carries are worth points and catches are not.
2. In leagues that award “big play” or “long TD” bonuses, it is probably logical to break ties at the WR position to favor players who have a higher average depth of target or who play in offenses or with QBs who prioritize deep passing concepts.
3. Some leagues have position-specific scoring, such as 1 point per reception for RB/WR but 2 points per reception for TEs. This should move the group of elite pass-catching TEs up our draft boards and we might consider adding some lower ranked TEs to our player pool than in a standard scoring format.

The examples above are all impactful to an extent, they shift players with different skill sets within their position groups and in some cases, we might even add or completely remove players from our player pool based on the specific settings.

With all of that in mind, here are the 6 Most Important League Settings To Know And Adjust For Before You Draft:

By Tony Kneepkens >>

In this article, I want to cover some strategies and ideas specific to the number of starting quarterbacks your league requires. I will briefly touch on “standard” leagues that require one starting quarterback only, leagues that have a Superflex position (you are allowed to play a quarterback in one of the flex spots), and leagues that require two starting quarterbacks per team.

Standard (1 QB)

In a 12-team standard league that only allows one starting QB, three fairly common strategies are all viable if executed well:

1. Draft a single stud QB and start them as many games as possible, potentially only adding a single bye-week fill-in for one week if all goes perfectly. 
2. Draft 2 QBs with the plan to play matchups between the two or stash a high-upside rookie for later in the season. 
3. You might target a single late-round QB with favorable early-season matchups with the plan to add and drop QBs throughout the season or until a permanent starting option has been uncovered. 

In any of these scenarios, there are plenty of QBs to go around. Even if all 12 managers want to execute a similar strategy, likely, some or all of the mid-20s QB range (think Geno, Baker, Carr, etc.) will be available as waiver or free-agent pickups throughout the season. Suppose you draft a high-end stud, and they suffer a significant injury. In that case, you can add a start-worthy QB from waivers and likely even trade for a comparable player to the one you’ve just lost if you are motivated to without completely changing the makeup of the rest of your team.

Understanding How Superflex/2-QB Changes Things

In 12-team Superflex or start-two QB leagues, there are still a few different draft or roster-building approaches to take, but one key difference is that all of the starting QBs (and likely some backups) will be drafted and rostered all season. Most teams in these formats will covet having three (or more) starting QBs rostered so that they can feel comfortable covering bye weeks or tough matchups with a strong option from their bench. If we assume 32 clean, clear-cut NFL QB situations, this means 4+ teams in a 12-team league will be feeling behind at the position with only two starting QBs. In reality, most years are something like this current one, where there are approximately 25-27 NFL QB situations that seem very straightforward and another 5-7 that almost no one would project a single QB to start all of the games. Some reasons for relatively uncertain QB situations can include a bridge starter with a young QB behind (NE this year), starting players returning from injuries or suspensions (Brissett/Watson as an example previously), or just teams with general uncertainty (LV or PIT this year).

This means that there are some additional tiers and tier breaks that we need to be aware of during our drafts and throughout the season compared to a single QB league: 

1. There is a tier of QBs that are generally unowned in single QB leagues but are also considered straightforward QB situations (Baker, Geno, Carr, etc.). These QBs gain quite a bit of value in Superflex and 2 QB leagues because they are a comfortable 3rd QB on someone’s bench, the final “safe” starting options, and you could even grab two players like this plus a higher-end QB and play matchups and cover byes that way.
2. There is a tier of QBs from the remaining “uncertain” QB situations that will likely have multiple QBs from each NFL team drafted in these formats where multiple QBs can or must be started like Fields/Wilson, Brissett/Maye, Nix/Stidham, etc. This group will be the next tier drafted and some managers will covet getting both pieces rostered to feel like they have their bases covered.
3. The NFL is unpredictable. Previous star QBs might fade, or players might get injured, and a team will experience a cluster of QB injuries, and we get to 3rd or 4th QB options that no NFL GM can realistically prepare for. While I will never predict injuries to specific players, I think it is realistic to assume that there will be injuries and surprises throughout the NFL season. The final QB tier to be aware of is all of the primary backup QBs in the league not already drafted in #2 above. You can consider “handcuffing” your own QB(s) or even take a flier on a backup from another team who has shown previous ability or plays in a QB-friendly system (some of my favorites this year include Joe Flacco, Jake Browning, Jameis Winston).

Superflex/2-QB Differences

By Justin Papariella >>

The first question we must answer before determining how to handle team defense in our yearly league is, “Do team defenses matter?” Your league mates will typically answer this question with one of two extremes. Bob might roll his eyes and say, “Let the noobs chase last year’s top defense. I’ve been playing fantasy football since 92, and if there is one thing I’ve learned, it’s to draft your defense in the last two rounds. If the league didn’t make me take one, I wouldn’t draft one at all! Defense is all about matchups. I’ll stream my defenses all year.” Before Bob finishes his rant, Steve whispers in your other ear, “Don’t listen to that guy. He’s been finishing last since 92. Have you seen (fill in the top defense from last season?) They’re loaded! I had them on all my teams last year and made the playoffs in every league.” 

Who is right? Should you stream your way to glory? Or draft the top defense in the 14th round? Let’s look at some data. 

Using a standard scoring structure for a 12-team league, the top defense in 2023 (per fantasypros.com) scored 166 points (10.4 per game). The 12th-ranked defense scored 127 points (7.9 per game). Those same numbers were 186 points (10.9 per game) versus 117 points (6.9 per game) in 2022 and 185 points (10.9 per game) versus 121 points (7.1 per game) in 2021. The top defense over the past three seasons has averaged 179 points (10.5 per game), and the 12th-ranked defense has averaged 121 points (7.1 per game). If you had played the top defense versus the 12th-ranked defense over the past three seasons, you would have netted about 3.5 points per game advantage. Using the same method (half-point PPR scoring) at the other “onesie” positions, the difference would have been about eight points per game at QB and six points at TE over the past three seasons. While no one will argue that defenses should be prioritized like elite QBs or TEs, the advantage you get from having the top-scoring defense versus the 12th-scoring defense is undoubtedly significant. 

Does that mean Steve is right? Should you chase last year’s top defense in the 14th round? Not exactly. The top-scoring QBs and TEs are relatively predictable year-over-year, and the top-scoring defense is highly volatile. You don’t need to look further than 2022’s top fantasy defense (the Patriots), who finished as the 23rd fantasy defense in 2023, to see the problem with over-drafting a defense. That year-over-year fall would be rare at any other position without an injury. So, if it’s challenging to predict defensive scoring based on last year’s results, is Bob right? Is it best to draft your defense in the 19th round? Not exactly. Let’s examine the pros and cons of each approach.

Stream and Let Stream 

Fantasy football veterans commonly employ Bob’s strategy. They’ve played long enough to have chased a top defense at some point and gotten burned. It’s also a strategy that is often advocated for by fantasy experts. In fairness, streaming defenses has merit. The opportunity cost is low. This strategy involves drafting a defense in one of the last two rounds, so you’re not giving up much if you get it wrong. You’ll also be dropping and picking up defenses all year, which makes getting the defense you pick correct even less critical. Many people who use this strategy will try to draft a defense with good week 1-2 matchups, assuming they’ll drop their defense in short order. It is accurate that defensive scoring output is highly matchup-driven, the basic idea fueling a streaming strategy. The cons? Since streaming defense is advocated for by many fantasy experts and used by fantasy veterans, there is a good chance you won’t be the only person in your league trying to go this route. That means there will be competition for the “defense of the week” on waivers.

You might spend more waiver dollars on defenses throughout the year than you’d like and, some weeks, get frozen out entirely. These weeks, your team might get stuck starting a weak defense against a good offense, which is never a recipe for success. There is also the time commitment of streaming. Not everyone wants to have to play the waiver wire every week. To successfully execute a streaming strategy, you’ll need to study the matchups and make roster moves on a weekly basis. Since there is a risk of getting outbid for the defense of the week, you’ll need to place bids on multiple defenses to make sure you don’t get stuck. A lot of players who want to stream will even plan 2-3 weeks ahead. That means to keep up, you’ll need to spend a lot of time looking at matchups and placing bids. That’s not for everyone. Our daily newsletter, The Daily Dose, will have top streaming defenses each week to help you with those decisions. Another way to dominate with this strategy is to stay a week or two ahead of things and add defenses before the week when everyone wants to pick them up. This generally means consistently carrying two defenses on your roster, so it is usually only viable in leagues with larger benches.

Strong Potential Week 1 Defenses To Stream::