NFC EAST

WRITTEN BY MIKE JOHNSON

DALLAS COWBOYS

Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes::

• Offense: The Cowboys let Mike McCarthy’s contract expire and replaced him with Brian Schottenheimer, who had been the Cowboys offensive coordinator for the last two seasons. 
• Defense: Mike Zimmer is gone after just one season as defensive coordinator, replaced by former Bears head coach Matt Eberflus. Eberflus had a rough time as a head coach in Chicago, but his defenses have consistently been very good over the last decade.

Major Personnel Changes::

• Dak Prescott’s 2024 season ended prematurely due to a torn hamstring, but he is back as the Cowboys QB1 for 2025. The Cowboys traded for the dynamic Joe Milton III to operate as Prescott’s backup.
• The Cowboys backfield will have a lot of turnover for the second consecutive season after they let Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott leave. There are three main players who will be fighting it out: free agent acquisitions Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders along with explosive fourth round rookie Jaydon Blue out of Texas. There also exists the possibility that Dallas adds another veteran at some point.
• CeeDee Lamb is the top WR option for Dallas once again, while Brandin Cooks left in free agency, leaving Jalen Tolbert as their WR2. TE Jake Ferguson should have a huge role as well. 
• After that, several Cowboys WRs will compete for roles. Those players include former Panthers second round pick Jonathan Mingo, Kavontae Turpin, Jalen Brooks, and Parris Campbell.
• Dallas lost franchise cornerstone offensive guard Zack Martin to retirement in February and used their first round pick on Tyler Booker out of Alabama to replace him.

Schedule::

• Divisional Games (6)::
  • WAS x2, NYG x2, PHI x2
• NFC North (4)::
  • @ CHI, @ DET, vs. GB, vs. MIN
• AFC West (4)::
  • @ LVR, @ DEN, vs. KC, vs. LAC
• Other (3)::
  • @ NYJ, @ CAR, vs. ARI

Bull Case::

The Cowboys were one of the league’s top offenses in 2023 before falling off sharply in 2024. There were a lot of issues that led to the decline, but the mid-season injury to Dak Prescott kept them from having a real chance to right the ship after their 3-5 start to the season. Dallas still managed to enter Week 17 with a 7-8 record and an outside shot at the playoffs before losing their last two games. All things considered, this Cowboys team stayed relatively competitive and didn’t quit in a lame duck season for Mike McCarthy.

This year, they get to start over with a fresh slate, but some continuity thanks to the in-house hiring of Schottenheimer. The Cowboys passing game trio of Prescott, Lamb, and Ferguson is very good when everyone is on the field, and a lot of their secondary receivers got a lot of playing time and experience in 2024. The continuity in scheme, fresh faces on the offensive line, and potential for an improved running game give Dallas a chance to bounce back. The Cowboys also benefit from a third place schedule this season as a result of their down year in 2024. Dallas has several stars on their roster and stability at the quarterback position. They have the same key pieces in place that led them to a 12-5 record and the league’s highest scoring offense in 2024.

Bear Case::

A few areas of concern for the Cowboys:

• The offensive line suffered from the losses of Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadascz in 2024 and now has to replace perennial All-Pro Zack Martin. Rookie Tyler Booker may have a bright future, but there will likely be some growing pains.
• Brian Schottenheimer has been fairly vanilla and underwhelming throughout his career when he is the one calling the shots for an offense. He isn’t terrible by any means, but has been exceedingly mediocre, and that might not be good enough for an offense that is relatively talent deficient after Lamb.
• Dallas still plays in the NFC East, which means they have to contend with the two teams that were in the NFC Championship game last year.
• We saw last season how the Cowboys offense became one-dimensional very quickly due to a mediocre offensive line and replacement-level running back play. They responded by holding serve or taking a slight step back on the O-Line and putting very few resources into their RB room.
• Schottenheimer’s tendencies throughout his career have been very conservative, which could easily spill over into the pass rate for the offense and the overall approach the team takes for play calling, decision making, and the type of games they try to play. This could lead to decreased play volume and opportunities for fantasy points.

Expectations/Takeaways::

The reality for the Cowboys is that they once again have a tough path in front of them in 2025. The defending Super Bowl champion Eagles are going to be a juggernaut again, and after the Commanders’ surprising 2024, it is safe to say they are going to be a problem for the NFC East for years to come. Of the two cases laid out above, it is much harder to see the Cowboys just “figuring it out” with Schottenheimer calling the shots than it is to see them having the same or worse fate in 2025 as they had last year. Their schedule isn’t doing them many favors, either, as they matchup with the loaded NFC North and the AFC West, which features the perennial contending Chiefs and the ascending Broncos and Chargers. Here’s my take on the individual players: 

• Dak Prescott was the QB1 down the stretch of 2023, but fell off sharply in 2024 as he scored 20+ fantasy points only once in eight games played. Prescott is now being drafted in the QB16 to QB19 range, usually going in the 10th to 12th rounds. A veteran who has consistently produced over several years and has an elite receiver to target, Dak is a nice bounce back candidate this year, even if his production comes in losses.
• CeeDee Lamb has been the WR5, WR1, and WR8 over the last three seasons, respectively. The WR8 finish was particularly impressive considering the train wreck that was the Cowboys season. Currently being drafted as the WR3 and sixth player overall, Lamb is appropriately priced, but as a veteran on a team whose season could go south quickly, he has a bit more risk than you usually want from an early first round pick.
• In 2023, Jake Ferguson scored double digit PPR points in 8 of 12 games after the Cowboys bye, including a 37.3 point outburst against the Packers in their playoff game. In 2024, Ferguson scored double digit points in only five of 14 games, with no games over 15 fantasy points. The disappointing season left him as the TE25. We have seen it before from Ferguson, however, and four of those double digit games last year came with Prescott under center. If his ADP stays in its current 12th to 13th round range, I will be loading up.
• As of this writing (May 1), Jalen Tolbert and Jonathan Mingo are the only other Cowboys WRs who I may have some interest in as late-round dart throws. Tolbert has flashed before, and Mingo is in his first offseason with the team, only two years removed from being a second round pick.
• The Cowboys backfield is an interesting place to invest after Rico Dowdle left town. Rookie Jaydon Blue is very interesting as an explosive young player whose skill set seems very fantasy friendly with a murky depth chart ahead of him. I’ll surely have a good amount of Blue. 
• Javonte Williams is being selected in the 11th to 12th round currently, presumably meaning the market expects him to be the lead back. Maybe that’s the case, but this is a guy who was relegated to pass protection work last season behind Audric Estime and Jaleel McLaughlin in Denver. I’d much prefer Blue at a similar or slightly lower cost, or even Miles Sanders (who had a monster game for the Panthers against the Falcons in Week 18 last season) in the final round of drafts. 

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes::