Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Joshua Dobbs will draw the start at quarterback for the Titans after throwing for as many yards in one game as Malik Willis did across three starts.
- Treylon Burks has had the exact practice breakdown you’d hope not to see this week, starting with no designation on Tuesday, being limited on Wednesday with a groin injury, and being held out on Thursday.
- The Titans are a bit banged up on the defensive side of the ball, primarily amongst the linebackers and in the secondary.
How tennessee Will Try To Win ::
This one takes a bit of nuance due to the changing dynamics of the Titans over the previous month of play. They first lost Ryan Tannehill to an ankle injury that forced a trip to injured reserve. Then, they started rookie Malik Willis in Week 16 for his third start as a professional before turning to Joshua Dobbs in Week 17, a game played without Derrick Henry (rest). And while Dobbs came out and threw for about the same yardage as Malik Willis had through three starts, we can’t simply assume this team is going to come out chucking the football. The missing context there is that the team’s Week 17 game meant diddly squat, with the team likely tinkering with some things offensively with the ultimate goal to decide which quarterback gave the team the best chances for success against these Jaguars. My thinking is this – I find it highly unlikely the Titans are simply going to turn more pass-heavy with Dobbs at quarterback, with the decision at quarterback likely coming down to who the team thinks can manage their game plan the best. That means limiting turnovers, keeping defenses at least somewhat honest in the box, and being able to convert third downs at a semi-regular rate. Think about how the offense looked with Willis in – the unit was entirely too one-dimensional, lacked any semblance of explosiveness, and relied far too heavily on Derrick Henry. And while the offense is highly likely to continue to flow through Henry here, Dobbs gives them some semblance of pass presence that should serve to keep the Jaguars defense honest. That said, Dobbs passed for just 232 yards on 39 pass attempts last week, good for a measly 5.95 yards per attempt value (would rank 34th in the league this year, if he qualified). I would expect the team to mix in early down quick passing to keep the Jaguars honest in the box, with the design to stay ahead of the chains and grind out a win in a way only Mike Vrabel and the Titans can.
There is no hiding the fact that the Titans are likely to go as Derrick Henry goes here. You know it, I know it, and the Jaguars know it. The trick is going to be making it so he’s not running into eight and nine-man boxes, which I believe is the reason Dobbs is getting the start at quarterback over Malik Willis. If this team can complete some passes on first and second down, even if they are just four to six yard hits, it will do wonders for the run game and allow the Titans to continue with their grind-it-out style throughout the game (they also have to keep the Jaguars from passing all over them and establishing an early lead, but we’ll get to that in a minute). Henry had been between 71% and 75% of the offensive snaps played in the three games prior to sitting out Week 17, which should be considered his likeliest range of outcomes here. And as we’ve highlighted in the past, Henry’s ultimate workload is less a function of touches per snap and more a function of how many snaps he plays, as he has consistently remained around the same spot in touches per snap over the previous three seasons in Tennessee. Expect Hassan Haskins to serve as the primary change of pace option in a role likely to be lower than has been in the past. The pure rushing matchup yields a below average 4.22 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Jacksonville defense holding opposing backs to just 3.96 yards per carry this season.
The biggest news out of the Tennessee pass-catching corps is the steady decline in activity of rookie wide receiver Treylon Burks, who started the week out off the injury report before being listed as limited on Wednesday and DNP on Thursday with a groin injury. That is a significant development considering Burks had returned to snap rates of 82% and 72% after missing Week 14 and Week 15. Either way, I’d expect the Titans to operate with increased rates of 12-personnel here, which is likely to continue the increased involvement from rookie tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo. Okonkwo’s usage splits with and without Burks in the lineup have been stark this season, leaving the door to fantasy viability open should Burks miss (I’ve already hammered Okonkwo’s receiving total and receiving yardage overs for Saturday). An absence from Burks would also likely force the Titans to give increased run to the combination of Chris Conley and Racey McMath to fill their WR3 role behind Robert Woods and Nick Westrbook-Ikhine. Also of note, the Titans have moved to a four-headed rotation at tight end, meaning all parties involved would need a touchdown in order to return fantasy relevancy. From a macro perspective, this is still a low expected volume pass offense that is highly likely to be confined to usage over the short-to-intermediate areas of the field, keeping all players reliant on finding paint in order to return fantasy utility.
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