Kickoff Sunday, Sep 17th 1:00pm Eastern

Hawks (
21.5) at

Lions (

Over/Under 47.5


Key Matchups
Seahawks Run D
23rd DVOA/25th Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
4th DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Seahawks Pass D
25th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
9th DVOA/9th Yards per pass
Lions Run D
3rd DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Seahawks Run O
19th DVOA/20th Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
16th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Seahawks Pass O
8th DVOA/12th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

  • Detroit inexplicably played “zero upside Josh (Reynolds)” and “dinosaur-bones (Marvin) Jones” over the field-stretcher they so desperately need on this offense in Kalif Raymond (in lieu of Jameson Williams) in Week 1 against the Chiefs.
  • Both of these defenses have improved dramatically since the last time these two teams met in Week 4 of 2022 – a game that broke the slate with 93 combined points.
  • Those improvements start in the linebacking corps of each team, which is a staple in the standard 3-4, Tampa-2 base for the Seahawks under Pete Carroll and should help the Lions perform better against the run this season (Jack Campbell is an athletic monster-freak).
  • This game total opened at 50.5 and has already (on Wednesday night) been bet down to 47.5 after bouncing off 47.0 – notable, for sure.
  • It is highly likely both teams are looking to control this game on the ground, which saps a lot of the upside from the expected game environment.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

The Seahawks are a team built around their Tampa-2, outside-in, 3-4 defense and the run game. The pass game is simply a product of the successes from those two areas. Even with the selection of Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round, offensive coordinator Shane Waldron carried over the same offensive design into 2023 that includes increased rates of 12-personnel. We did get a glimmer of hope in the team’s moderate pace (16th in situation-neutral pace of play and 11th in seconds per play) and 10th-ranked pass rate over expectation in Week 1, but the overall design of the offense appeared extremely similar to what we have seen in the past (which is not necessarily good considering the talent of JSN). Furthermore, the Seahawks are largely a team that looks to win on the ground unless otherwise sparked, meaning typically the only way they provide the spark to game environments is via explosive runs early. The last time these two teams met (Week 4 2022), Seattle surged to a commanding 31-15 lead after an interception returned for a touchdown on the first play from scrimmage of the second half. Rashaad Penny erupted for 36- and 41-yard touchdowns from that point forward and the Lions did their best “oh shit, it’s catch-up time” through TJ Hockenson (Amon-Ra missed that game). What was most troubling to see from the Seahawks in Week 1 was that quarterback Geno Smith “boasted” a 4.9 average intended air yards on an offense that has DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and now Smith-Njigba – AGAINST THE RAMS. Geno had all of 42 completed air yards in that game. His completed air yards per pass attempt was higher than just Joe Burrow (lolz), Daniel Jones (oof), and Bryce Young (okay, this makes sense). That leaves a rather massive question for us this week – can Waldron integrate the dynamism they have through the air to make it so the offense isn’t overly reliant on the success of the run game?

The Seahawks managed a solid 4.7 yards per carry against the Rams in Week 1 (Kenneth Walker was responsible for a solid 5.3 yards per carry) but only saw 18 total carries and a laughable 51 offensive plays – AGAINST THE RAMS. Carroll and Waldron let the game completely come to them after taking a 13-7 lead into half. Their second-half drives consisted of three three-and-outs and one drive where they picked up a first down via penalty. Through that ineptitude, Walker saw only three second-half carries and two second-half targets, meaning his nine first-half carries and three first-half targets tell the larger story of what to expect in a more neutral situation. Also, Walker operated as the true lead back, garnering a solid 63 percent snap rate compared to 24 percent for rookie Zach Charbonnet and 22 percent for DeeJay Dallas, the latter of whom saw work exclusively in the two-minute drill and obvious passing downs. If I know Carroll and Waldron (I think I do?), I’d guess we’re likely to see this team try to get back to its roots, which involves a game plan built around the run with passing layered in off of that. The matchup on the ground should be considered largely neutral after the Lions held Kansas City backs to 3.9 yards per carry in Week 1 (but we know the Chiefs aren’t going to be this insanely good rushing team this year consider it’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Isiah Pacheco leading the charge).

It appears as if this pass game is going to be your run-of-the-mill, 60-65 percent 11-personnel, 20-25 percent 12-personnel shell. Metcalf played almost every offensive snap in Week 1 and Lockett was on his way to doing the same until he was removed to be evaluated for a concussion (he would gain clearance and return). Smith-Njigba settled into the true slot-from-11-personnel tool in this offense, which has to be frustrating to those that sunk significant draft capital into him in Best Ball. That change also kicked Lockett into heavier perimeter snaps, which we expected entering the season. It’s not as if Lockett can’t play on the perimeter, but 112 of his 224 targets over the previous two seasons came with him aligned in the slot (405 of his total 1,666 offensive snaps came from the slot during those two seasons, meaning he saw 50 percent of his targets on just 24.3 percent of his total snap share from the slot over the previous two seasons). That could be damaging to his weekly upside. Surprisingly enough, Metcalf ran the same percentage of snaps from the slot in Week 1 when compared to Lockett (50 percent). Tight ends Noah Fant, Colby Parkinson, and Will Dissly all operated with snap rates between 31 percent and 49 percent and are not viable weekly plays.


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