Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Center Luke Fortner and right guard Brandon Scherff did not practice Wednesday for the Jaguars.
- Tight end Travis Kelce returned to a limited session Wednesday and appears on track to play in Week 2 – the Chiefs did the right thing by holding him out in Week 1 to give him an extra week and a half to recover from his hyperextended knee.
- Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire missed practice Wednesday with an illness – he should be good to go come Sunday, enough to take the first two carries of the game and then disappear into irrelevance, probably.
- Chris Jones returns to the Chiefs after missing Week 1 while disputing his contract.
- There are two very clear likeliest paths to eruption for this game environment, without which the game is likely to land near its median projection (currently installed with a game total of 51.0 and a relatively tight spread at Chiefs -3.5).
How kansas city Will Try To Win ::
Kansas City largely hasn’t changed how it tries to win over the previous four seasons, giving us a fairly accurate expectation each time they play. That said, we should expect Kelce to make his triumphant return to the lineup this week after hyperextending his knee two days before the team played its opening game on Thursday Night Football against the Lions. Unshockingly, the Chiefs left Week 1 with the highest pass rate over expectation (PROE) value of all 32 teams, a top-10 situation neutral pace of play (ninth), and the eighth-fastest seconds per play value. The Chiefs will look to pass, mix up their situational play-calling tendencies to keep their opponents on their heels, target all areas of the field, and mix and match their pass-catchers not named Travis Kelce. That sets up an interesting matchup with a Jacksonville defense that is both fast and young. Opposing defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell is of the Todd Bowles coaching tree, typically running a 3-4 base with heavy blitz rates and a focus on stopping the run. Jacksonville blitzed at a 36.4 percent clip in Week 1 against the Colts (the Buccaneers were one of only four teams to blitz at a higher rate – Todd Bowles) and surrendered just 2.5 yards per carry (the Buccaneers were one of four teams to allow a lower yards per carry in Week 1 – Todd Bowles), each confirming our previous assumptions. Knowing Andy Reid, that should mean more designed ball-out-quick tendencies over the middle of the field here, with designed shots downfield strewn throughout the offensive design.
The Chiefs backfield was a veritable disaster in Week 1, at least for fantasy purposes. Clyde Edwards-Helaire “started” the game, took the first two carries, and then saw just six more carries throughout the remainder of the game. He finished with a 22 percent snap rate. Presumed lead rusher Isiah Pacheco finished with eight carries and four targets on 48 percent of the offensive snaps. Change-of-pace extraordinaire/typical passing down back Jerick McKinnon finished with zero carries and just two targets on 31 percent of the offensive snaps. If ever there were a game to expect a bump to the already high pass rates for the Chiefs, this would be it. Not much else going on here.
While the backs rotated through at a maddening rate, the wide receivers might have been more extreme. All seven active wide receivers saw snaps for the Chiefs in Week 1, led by Skyy Moore (69 percent) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (63 percent). Richie James (35 percent), Rashee Rice (31 percent), Justin Watson (29 percent), Kadarius Toney (25 percent), and even Justyn Ross (nine percent) all saw snaps behind the two “starters.” At tight end, Noah Gray made a play at his best Kelce impression, playing on 88 percent of the offensive snaps and routinely serving as Patrick Mahomes’ outlet underneath. Blake Bell played a standard-for-him 40 percent of the offensive snaps to up the team’s 12-personnel usage. With Kelce set to return, it is likely he is the lone near-every-down player in this offense moving forward. It is worth mentioning (or worth re-emphasizing) just how poorly Toney played, dropping multiple passes and looking lost and disinterested last Thursday. One of those drops resulted in a pick-six to open the third quarter. Not good, Bob, not good. MVS should continue to be near the team lead in snaps as the “safety manipulator” in this offense, while Moore should continue in a similar role after separating from the crowd in camp, but neither of these roles is likely to provide any semblance of elevated median projection considering the relatively low snap rates. But again, this team is going to pass, and pass often, leaving some (albeit slim) paths to GPP goodness (maybe just for MME for the time being). Based on the aforementioned defensive tendencies from the Jaguars, this sets up a “a Kelce game.”
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