⚠️ LAST DAY ⚠️
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NBA Props Profit ::
Straight bets: $2,802
Coin Flips: $535
3 Week Total = $4,099(!!!)
XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Week 9 closes out with the Ravens visiting the Saints for a 47.5 total game in which Vegas has Baltimore favored by 2.5. Baltimore came out of the gates hot this season but has scored between 19-27 points in five straight games, while New Orleans has been somewhat surprisingly playing in shootouts (and keeping up for the most part even if they eventually lose), scoring 24+ points in six of eight weeks including every week in which Andy Dalton has started. The Saints defense has collapsed this year. Outside of last week’s shocking shutout of the Raiders, the Saints D has allowed 20+ points in every single game this year, including to such elite offenses as Carolina and Atlanta. This game features one elite offense that has been playing down, one offense that only looks decent on paper but has been playing up, and two defenses that were both expected to be better than this coming into the season. What that says to me is that this game has a wide range of outcomes, which makes it a super interesting one to attack in Showdown.
We know that the engines of this offense are Alvin Kamara on the ground and Chris Olave in the air (more on him later). Kamara is playing around 70% of the snaps and averaging a healthy 15 or so carries per game to go along with an absolutely elite-for-a-running-back 7.5 targets. Kamara is the single best skill position player in this game. Duh. He’s been putting up solid fantasy scores without getting into the end zone and we’ve kept saying “when the touchdowns come.” Well, they came last week – three of them – and the result was 42.8 Draftkings points. Mark Ingram is now hurt, so the RB2 role goes to Dwayne Washington, who is a wholly uninspiring option, but at $200 his floor is reasonable even if the ceiling is likely nonexistent without a lucky touchdown. Ingram being out might benefit Taysom Hill more than Washington, as Taysom saw a season-high 10 carries last week after Ingram departed while Washington only had four. Taysom’s floor is scarily low, but his ceiling is awesome for his price and he can get there in a bunch of different ways. I hate to say this, but he’s actually a pretty strong play this week.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
Ownership updates automatically
In the passing game, rookie Chris Olave has become the clear alpha receiver, leading the team in every receiving metric. The dude’s awesome and he’s succeeded despite having a backup quarterback. At $8,600, he’s somewhat underpriced for his role, and I’m really into him here. After Olave, it looks likely that the Saints will get Jarvis Landry back this week. It’s not certain, but if he plays and resumes his full normal role, he’s underpriced at $5,200 and a really solid value option. Landry’s return would likely spell the end of Marquez Callaway’s role, which was already diminished last week in favor of Kevin White of all people. Callaway has been legitimately awful this year, catching just 12 of 24 targets for 128 yards and a score, and he might be one of the rare players I completely X out of my player pool. Past this, we get into uncertain territory. I think the way this plays out is that Tre’Quan Smith keeps his role when Landry is back (he’s been fairly solid), and then White and Rashid Shaheed play rotational roles and can be used as punt options. Or, maybe White or Shaheed pass Smith? Based on snap counts last week, I’d guess White, but I don’t think we can know for sure. Basically, everyone here past Olave and Landry falls into the MME-only pool. At tight end, it’s Juwan Johnson as the main guy, and he would be my #4 option on the Saints behind Kamara, Olave, and Landry. Johnson has established himself in a very real role this year, averaging just over four targets per game. Nick Vannett can also be included as a punt option, though it’s unclear if his increased role the past couple of weeks will diminish if Landry is back.
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