Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- We shouldn’t expect much to change for the Bills here, with an emphasis on improving with every possession from their head coach to their quarterback down to each special teams snap.
- We should expect the Bills defense to control the environment here, with the ultimate flow likely up to the Jets to dictate (as in, both defenses are performing at an elite level, while we know the Bills are likely to have success offensively – leaving the ultimate flow over to the Jets to decide via what they are able to accomplish offensively).
- It is unlikely to go fully mentioned around the industry this week, but there is a viable path where the Jets are able to disrupt Allen enough to stop drives and keep this a low scoring affair – something to consider at bare minimum.
- Defensive stalwarts Von Miller, Matt Milano, and Jordan Poyer have yet to practice this week for the Bills.
- Corey Davis has yet to practice this week for the Jets as he attempts to come back from a knee injury.
How BUFFALO Will Try To Win ::
The Bills are one of the few teams that we can expect to take every offensive possession as a chance to improve and score points as they push towards the top overall playoff spot in the AFC. That’s an important aspect to consider when you see they are favored by almost two full touchdowns this week against the Jets. For everything the Jets are not, we can be fairly certain their head coach, Robert Saleh, will have them prepared and ready to take on the AFC-leading Bills. The Bills continue to hold the top spot in pass rate over expectation and sit at 13th in overall pass rate at 61.98%. The Jets are turning heads, currently sitting at 5-3 off the backs of one of the league’s top performing defenses. The Jets currently rank eighth in both DVOA against the run and pass, and sport one of the top cornerback trios in the league with Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed, and Michael Carter II. That said, we can expect the Bills to find success here, because, well, they are the Bills – and they are awesome. Pair the league’s most dynamic dual-threat quarterback with one of the top route runners (Stefon Diggs), one of the top deep threats Gabe Davis, and above average tight end and slot wide receiver play (Dawson Knox, Isaiah McKenzie, and Khalil Shakir) and you’re left with a lot to cover on the football field – not to mention Devin Singletary continues to defy the haters on his way to a top-18 yards per touch value. The team also traded for their pass-catching back (finally), landing Nyheim Hines at the deadline (although unlikely to play a ton this week). Oh yea, and they boast the league’s top defense, so there’s that minute detail as well.
The backfield has evolved into a borderline workhorse situation with Devin Singletary averaging 75.75% of the offensive snaps over the previous four games. While the team added Nyheim Hines at the deadline this week, it is fair to expect another week or two of borderline workhorse usage out of Singletary, with Hines likeliest to impact the snap rate and production of rookie pass-catching “specialist” James Cook. The matchup on the ground is far from elite, combining to a below average 4.23 net-adjusted line yard metric against a Jets defense holding opposing backfields to 4.05 yards per carry. And while we don’t expect Hines to be fully up to speed, there is a chance that we see a slight dip in the routes run from Singletary, who currently has run the fifth most routes at the running back position. It’s also worth noting that even through the elite share of the backfield opportunities, Singletary has scored over a modest 14.7 fantasy points just once this season. Finally, quarterback Josh Allen leads the team in rushing scores with two.
The money is clearly made in the pass game with this team. Stefon Diggs’ elite usage and route running skills have translated to the seventh highest targets per route run rate and 10th highest team target market share amongst qualified wide receivers, with the only knock to his game this season being a non-elite 84.1% route participation rate. Gabe Davis is the type of player that can win you a GPP but can also sink a lineup, with a massive 15.8 aDOT (fourth in the league) but low 15.8% targets per route run rate (85th). His red zone target market share has also shrunk to just 6.9% this season. Behind the top two pass-catchers, slot man Isaiah McKenzie and tight end Dawson Knox are matchup specialists that see volume ebb and flow from week to week. Each is capable of putting up massive scores due to the offense they play on, but volume is difficult to predict on a weekly basis. Finally, rookie Khalil Shakir rotates in primarily in the slot at modest rates while WR5 Jake Kumerow sees modest usage in a situational role. As discussed above, the matchup is not ideal, but that almost doesn’t matter for the Bills. It is worth noting that Josh Allen holds PFF’s top ranking when under pressure this season, which has been the biggest knock against his play over his career. That said, he is still prone to forcing the issue, which could become a defining factor against an aggressive defensive unit.
How nEW YOrk Will Try To Win ::
- Look, Josh Allen is the top quarterback in the league and the top fantasy quarterback on this slate. I won’t argue against that. What I would like to highlight, however, is the fact that both of the defenses in this game have elite secondaries and are capable of generating pressure at top-five “rates over blitz,” which I just made to illustrate that both defenses are generating pressure at rates over 50% above their blitz rates. Organic pressure allows a defense to settle into blanket coverages behind a defensive line that disrupts a play. It’s the ole Al Michaels “that was a coverage sack.” And while Allen has been elite against pressure this year, the majority of the data we have is pressures created via blitz. Again, that isn’t to say “don’t play Josh Allen,” particularly considering he is the only elite fantasy quarterback on this slate – it’s simply to say there is a little more to think about with this game than the top-level stuff.
- The other side of that coin is a feel the field might struggle with who to stack Allen with, which might serve to keep his ownership in check. If that’s the case, we might have a situation where it’s just “play Josh Allen at lower-than-should-be ownership.” Time will tell how I personally will be handling this situation this week, but there are many layers that a worth consideration.
- With no clear path to the best pass-catcher play from the Bills, it is likely theoretically optimal to reserve any exposure here to team or game stacks. As in, stack up the Bills or stay away.
- In those game stacks, and it feels a bit “chasey,” Tyler Conklin and/or Garrett Wilson make the most sense as the players on the Jets who are simply on the field enough to see the requisite volume to provide GPP-worthy scores.
- I’ve been toying around with both defenses here, as pressure creates mistakes, sacks, turnovers, and the potential for D/ST points. Each defense generates organic pressure.
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.