Game Overview ::
By papy324 >>
- Ben Johnson has promised the Bears will play to win, but there is always a risk that he doesn’t keep his word.
- Dan Campbell will try to win, but he could be more conservative with guys who are nursing injuries.
- These teams are mirror images. They both want to win on the ground. They both use a split backfield.
- Both defenses have been bad against the run, making it highly likely that each offense attacks on the ground.
- Amon-Ra. St. Brown is considered day-to-day. If he sits, it will elevate Jameson Williams.
- Luther Burden and Rome Odunze are both dealing with injuries. Johnson will have to make a difficult decision about playing them or trying to rest them for the playoffs.
- This is a revenge game for David Montgomery and D’Andre Swift.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
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How detroit Will Try To Win ::
The 8-8 Lions come into Week 18 as one of the most disappointing teams of the year. The Lions were probably the best team last season. They lost a heartbreaking game at home in the divisional round as the number one seed in the NFC. They might have also been the best team in 2023, when they lost by three points in an instant classic NFC championship game against the 49ers. When you win, your coaches get hired by other teams (Ben Johnson), and it’s easy to forget that it was the Lions who bucked the pass first trend in the NFL. They were able to run over defenses that were designed to stop the pass, but the meta has changed over the last five years. Everyone started to mimic the Lions approach, and now defenses are focusing on stopping offenses that play, well, like the Lions. Week 18 is all about motivation, and even though the Lions have nothing to gain, Dan Campbell built Detroit into a winning franchise by bringing a knee-biting attitude. He started his head coaching career with a losing Lions team and frequently talked about how he used meaningless games to judge who had the right mentality. The Lions are going to play hard, even if winning does nothing but hurt their draft position.
The Bears have been hurt on the ground (28th in DVOA), and they are weak against the pass (24th in DVOA). The Bears have won a lot of close games and have the lowest point differential (+ 29) of any division winner. The Lions have a much worse record than the Bears, but are better (+65) in point differential. The Lions are a run-first offense (26th in PROE) and play at a moderate pace (14th in seconds per play). That has been their formula since Campbell took over as head coach, but this season their O-line (21st ranked by PFF) took a significant step back. They’ve struggled at center and never found a replacement for Frank Ragnow, who retired unexpectedly at only 29-years-old. The Lions aren’t going to change anything in the last week of the season against a defense that has struggled to stop the run. Expect the Lions to attack with their typical run to set up the pass offense.
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