Kickoff Sunday, Jan 1st 1:00pm Eastern

Colts (
16.5) at

Giants (

Over/Under 38.5


Key Matchups
Colts Run D
24th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
31st DVOA/15th Yards per carry
Colts Pass D
14th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
30th DVOA/30th Yards per pass
Giants Run D
29th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Colts Run O
9th DVOA/16th Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
19th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Colts Pass O
17th DVOA/15th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

  • The playoff scenario is quite simple for the Giants – win and in (as the number six seed); that said, they can also fall out of the playoff picture entirely with consecutive losses to end the season. As in, this game carries significant meaning for New York.
  • The Giants have been one of the most game environment-dependent teams as far as game management goes this season, meaning it is likeliest we see the bulk of volume flow through Saquon Barkley as opposed to Daniel Jones and the pass-catchers.
  • Quarterback Nick Foles will draw another start for the Colts as they limp into the offseason without Jonathan Taylor. The Colts managed just three points against a Chargers team in the bottom 10 in points allowed per game in Foles’ only start of the season last week.

How Indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

The Colts have been below league average in pass rate over expectation (PROE) in every game under interim head coach Jeff Saturday, which makes sense considering his philosophy as a former center in the NFL. The defense has played primarily from zone coverages and blitzes at low rates, instead electing to adapt an outside-in defensive approach designed to limit splash plays and swarm the point of reception over the middle of the field. And while that philosophy has sapped the upside from most of their games this season, a defense allowing red zone touchdowns at the third highest rate in the league has completely sunk their season. Furthermore, Nick Foles has already been named the starter at quarterback for the second consecutive week as the team has struggled through three starting quarterbacks this season (Matt Ryan, Sam Ehlinger, and Nick Foles). That move rewarded Chargers fans handsomely last week as the Colts mustered just three points against a defense that had largely struggled to keep points off the board this season.

Zack Moss has handled lead back duties in each of the previous two contests for the Colts, managing snap rates of 67% and 69%, and running opportunity totals of 25 and 13. Expect Deon Jackson and Jordan Wilkins to mop up the scraps left behind by Moss as the organization appears set on finding out what they have with the return from the Nyheim Hines trade. With the Colts intent on operating a conservative offense, and with Moss seeing clear lead back usage, the matchup will play a key role in identifying any fantasy potential here. The good news is that the matchup is far from daunting, yielding an above average 4.53 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Giants defense allowing a robust 5.32 yards per running back carry this season (second worst in the league ahead of only the Colts previous opponent, the Chargers).

The biggest problem for the Colts (and any potential for fantasy goodness) rests with the quarterback position, as Nick Foles threw three interceptions and took seven sacks against the Chargers last week. We know the Giants are going to blitz heavily with varying packages, which spells trouble for the statuesque passer this week. The Colts have mixed in about 10% 12-personnel offensive alignments, instead playing primarily from 11-personnel under Saturday, which should yield elevated snap rates for Michael Pittman, Parris Campbell, and Alec Pierce this week. None can be considered with any sense of floor, but all three will be on the field enough for the potential of volume to arise – not exactly a ringing endorsement. Arguably the most interesting piece from this pass offense is rookie tight end Jelani Woods, who saw another bump in snap rate and opportunities last week in the absence of Kyle Granson, the latter of whom missed his second consecutive practice on Thursday with an ankle injury sustained in Week 15.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

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