Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- Jarrett Stidham has a career passer rating of 52.8 and will start for the Raiders this week against arguably the best defense in the league….this should go well.
- The 49ers have locked up the NFC West division title. They can finish no lower than the 3-seed and have an outside chance to move up as high as the No.1 seed.
- San Francisco is averaging 31.5 points per game in games that quarterback Brock Purdy has played in.
- The Raiders defense ranks 31st in the league in Football Outsiders DVOA while ranking in the bottom-10 in both yards per play and points per game allowed.
How san francisco Will Try To Win ::
Many were concerned about where the 49ers season would go when Trey Lance went down in Week 2. After making amends with Jimmy Garoppolo and some ups and downs early in the season, the 49ers seemed to have things on track when he also was lost for the season. As they turned to 7th round rookie quarterback Brock Purdy to replace Jimmy G, a lot of people thought San Francisco’s season was toast. Shockingly, however, the 49ers offense has been all systems go and has played at its highest level of the season since Purdy took over. The 49ers have won their last four games by an average of 17.3 points and have scored over 30 points three times – the same amount of times they scored over 30 points in their first eleven games combined. We have all been aware of how dominant the 49ers defense can be, but their recent explosion of offensive balance and efficiency has them in prime position to make a deep playoff run and in some people’s minds they are the team to beat in the NFC.
The 49ers offense under Kyle Shanahan is a run-based scheme that looks to stretch defenses both horizontally and vertically, while getting the ball in the hands of players who are great at breaking tackles and making plays. This week they face one of the worst defenses in the league and a franchise that has made several moves this week effectively “waving the white flag” on the season. As I expected last week, the 49ers cut back on Christian McCaffrey’s usage to limit the physical toll he takes heading into the playoffs. Their overall play calling rates stayed relatively consistent, they just gave about a third of the running back carries to Tyrion Davis-Price. The 49ers are likely to get Deebo Samuel back this week, adding to their dominant skill position stable of CMC, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle. Kittle has looked like possibly the best tight end in the league whenever Samuel has been out over the last couple of years, but Samuel’s return likely leaves San Francisco more balanced, and their likely high level of offensive success early in this game against a lame duck opponent should allow them to manage reps and limit the hits that all of their key players take.
How las vegas Will Try To Win ::
JM >>
- The Raiders (it likely goes without saying) are completely off my list this week.
- I won’t argue with anyone who wants to play CMC this week, but Mike had a very sharp take last week when he forecasted the potential for the 49ers to proactively lighten CMC’s workload in “not quite meaningless, but also not hugely important in the macro scheme of things” games. Somehow, the field — in spite of playing CMC at high ownership last week — seems to have missed the fact that after weeks of CMC having a 100% stranglehold on the “pre-closer” backfield role for the 49ers, this team mixed in TDP from early in the game this last week. Said differently: CMC was proactively protected last week, and there’s no reason to expect something different this week — and yet, he’s currently projecting as the second highest-owned running back on the slate. Go figure.
- The setup in this game becomes even more interesting when we consider the likelihood of the 49ers controlling this game and the recent pass attempt totals for Purdy (in games the 49ers controlled) of 21 // 26 // 22. With Deebo and Aiyuk priced for their potential in higher-volume games and Kittle priced up after his non-Deebo games, it’s tough for me to get excited about any pieces on this offense — creating a strange setup in which A) I expect the 49ers’ offense to steamroll the Raiders here, but B) the pricing and respective roles don’t create much opportunity for true tourney-winners. Given the scoring potential of the 49ers’ offense, I wouldn’t argue against any swings you want to take here — but I expect to leave this game alone entirely.
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