Kickoff Sunday, Oct 1st 1:00pm Eastern

Bucs (
18.5) at
Saints (
22.5)

Over/Under 41.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Buccaneers Run D
13th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O
10th DVOA/28th Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D
20th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Saints Pass O
22nd DVOA/21st Yards per pass
Saints Run D
22nd DVOA/27th Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O
26th DVOA/32nd Yards per carry
Saints Pass D
11th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per pass
Buccaneers Pass O
18th DVOA/19th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • Jameis Winston adds a lot of variance to this game.
  • Rachaad White and Alvin Kamara are both underpriced for their anticipated touches.
  • Mike Evans is set for his yearly duel with Marshon Lattimore.
  • Chris Olave has plenty of upside if the Saints coaching staff lets Jameis cook.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

The 2-1 Bucs got their first taste of reality on Monday night coming off wins against the defenseless Bears and Vikings. They “kept it close” against the Eagles, only losing by two scores, but anyone watching the game knew it was never in doubt. The Bucs are good enough to beat weaker competition but they are clearly below the NFL’s upper echelon teams. They felt like pretenders at 2-0, and still feel that way at 2-1. Fortunately for them, weak matchups are a regular occurrence when you play in the NFC South. This week, they catch a Saints team who is likely without their starting QB, in a game that could have surprisingly important implications in the standings at the end of the season. If Baker Mayfield wants to prove he is an above average NFL QB, this is the type of game he must win. Without Tom Brady, the Bucs have dialed back their situational neutral pass rate to just over 50% (27th). When they tried to open things up against the Eagles, it didn’t go well. Todd Bowles seems to be trying to win games by being remarkably average. In fact, the Bucs are remarkingly middle of the road. They’re 21st in DVOA at running the ball, 16th at throwing, 15th at defending the pass, and 13th at defending the run. Their offensive line ranks 14th (per PFF). They had run/pass splits in their two close games of 33/34 and 34/34. They opened it up a little more against the Eagles (17/25) but that’s because they were chasing points and ran a pitiful 42 plays. The Saints have been more attackable on the ground (16th in DVOA) than through the air (3rd in DVOA) and that fits into how the Bucs want to attack. They’ve shown that in competitive games, they’re going to play a run-balanced offense hoping to keep things close and win by making more plays in the fourth quarter.

How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

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