Kickoff Sunday, Oct 1st 4:05pm Eastern

Raiders (
21.5) at

Chargers (

Over/Under 49.5


Key Matchups
Raiders Run D
21st DVOA/27th Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O
23rd DVOA/22nd Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D
14th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per pass
Chargers Pass O
6th DVOA/18th Yards per pass
Chargers Run D
26th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O
29th DVOA/31st Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D
27th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Raiders Pass O
29th DVOA/19th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>
  • The Raiders have one of the most concentrated offenses you will ever see in the modern NFL.
  • The Chargers have played three high-scoring games that went down to the wire, narrowly escaping in Minnesota for their first win of the season in Week 3. 
  • Justin Herbert is playing the best football of his career, but Los Angeles will now have to deal with the loss of star wide receiver Mike Williams.
  • Las Vegas will likely be without starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who suffered a concussion in the Raiders’ Week 3 loss to the Steelers.
  • Both of these teams rank within the top 10 teams in the NFL regarding Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE), and the Chargers play at one of the fastest tempos in the league.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

The Raiders offense is wildly concentrated, with three players accounting for almost all of their production. Jakobi Meyers, Davante Adams, and Josh Jacobs combined for 54 of the Raiders 61 opportunities (carries plus targets) in their Week 3 loss to the Steelers. That is 88.5%, the highest rate you will ever see from a group of three players in the modern NFL where teams usually mix up personnel groupings and spread out their usage. The one x-factor for this offense is the status of Jimmy Garoppolo, who suffered a concussion on Sunday night football that was not diagnosed until after the game. This puts his status in serious jeopardy for Sunday, and it is unclear at this point whether Brian Hoyer or rookie Aidan O’Connell will start in Jimmy G’s absence. Hoyer seems like the “favorite” because he has been active while O’Connell has not been for the last two weeks. However, the Raiders enter this game with a 1-2 record, and with time to prepare, they may want to see what the rookie has to offer.

Assuming Jimmy G. misses this game, the decision between Hoyer and O’Connell will likely drive much of the Raiders’ approach. Hoyer is a savvy veteran with a great deal of history with head coach Josh McDaniels from their time in New England. He would be able to step in and run the offense similarly to what Garoppolo did, albeit he is likely to be less efficient. O’Connell led the NFL in average intended air yards in the preseason and looked very good on the field – he was playing against backups, but he played very well. A young QB would likely need more focus on schemed looks and easy reads instead of being given multiple progressions. This would likely result in a heavier emphasis on the running game, with the passing game being split into two segments: play-action passing for deep shots and quick passes that have straightforward and easy reads. The Raiders play somewhat methodically, but no matter who is under center, we should expect a heavy focus on their three core skill players – Adams, Meyers, and Jacobs.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

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