Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The Buccaneers rank fourth in pass rate over expectation and third in pass rate over expectation forced on defense, making them a team we are always keeping in mind when they are on the main slate.
- The Giants have turned to Tommy DeVito under center after benching Daniel Jones for injury guarantee reasons.
- Buccaneers WR Mike Evans (hamstring) returned to limited sessions Wednesday and is reportedly on track to return to the field against the Giants. WR Jalen McMillan returned to a full practice after missing the previous two games with his own hamstring injury.
- Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving (toe) got in his first full practice of the previous four weeks Wednesday.
- These two teams rank seventh (Giants) and ninth (Buccaneers) in pass attempted per game, combining to average 69.4 pass attempts per game.
- The Buccaneers rank fifth in points per game (27.9) and 27th in points allowed per game (26.6).
How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::
Quarterback Baker Mayfield is having a true late-career breakout in 2024, on pace to shatter career highs in completion rate, yardage, and touchdowns. He has passed for multiple touchdowns in all but three games, had four games over 300 yards, and has gone over 23 DK points in six of 10 contests. But that all makes sense when looked at in the context of the current state of this Buccaneers team, a team that holds the fourth highest PROE and is scoring the fifth most points per game, but whose defense is allowing the third most yards per game, sixth most points per game, and forcing the third highest pass rate over expectation behind elite nose tackle Vita Vea. In other words, the 2024 version of the Buccaneers is one of the top teams to target with game stacks, in line with the Ravens and Bengals. They are also now expecting wide receiver Mike Evans back from an extended absence after the alpha wide receiver suffered a hamstring injury way back in Week 7. Even so, the typical blueprint of having to out-shootout their opponents could take a significant hit against a Giants team turning to Tommy DeVito at quarterback.
The Tampa Bay backfield has been a true “lead back and change of pace back” situation throughout the season, despite continued reports that the team wanted to get rookie Bucky Irving more involved. Those reports have cooled of late, but the team went through a chunk of the season continuing to sing his praise and talking of intent to get him more involved. Lead back Rachaad White has seen 60% or more of the offensive snaps in six of nine appearances, with one of those games being his first game back from injury. White has also seen six or more targets in five of nine games played, scoring four touchdowns through the air in the four games played largely without Evans and Chris Godwin. That’s the good news. White has also seen only 29 total carries in those four games, failing to see more than 10 carries in any game since Week 1. So, while the snap rate is clearly in White’s favor, volume is significantly lagging other backs on the slate. The Giants allow a robust 2.22 yards before contact per attempt and a ridiculous 5.3 yards per carry, which puts them as a bottom-three unit against the run this season.
The shakedown in snap rates for the Tampa pass-catchers likely comes down to how involved Mike Evans can be in his first game in over a month. If he’s ready for a full workload, expect Mike Evans and tight end Cade Otton to operate as near every-down options through the air, likely seeing route participation rates near 100% as well. The likely return of Jalen McMillan introduces further uncertainties as I would expect him to share a role with Rakim Jarrett in most outcomes, likely leaving the bulk of the slot work to Sterling Shepard. While former undrafted free agent Ryan Miller is listed as a tight end on the team’s depth chart, he is effectively a wide receiver, making the team heavily reliant on 11-personnel. The Giants play a ton of single-high defensive alignments (62.8%), against which both Evans and Otton have performed well this season.
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