Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- The 49ers are in a tough spot with a 1-3 divisional record and sitting at 5-5 as they have dealt with injuries all season long.
- Christian McCaffrey has returned to his elite workload role in his two games so far but has yet to turn that role into elite production.
- George Kittle is expected to return to the 49ers lineup after missing Week 11, which will have an impact on the San Francisco passing game and rushing efficiency.
- Josh Jacobs had a massive workload for the Packers in Week 11, with 23 opportunities, while the Packers ran only 46 offensive snaps.
- Green Bay was eliminated in the playoffs last season by the 49ers and is looking to keep pace with the Lions and Vikings to stay in contention in the NFC North.
How san francisco Will Try To Win ::
The 49ers’ offense has struggled to find itself this season, in large part due to the revolving door of players that are on the field. Last year, they were blessed with good fortune on the injury front, but this year, every one of their starting skill players has missed multiple games. Brock Purdy has played better than the numbers suggest and is making a lot of plays that critics in the past said he wasn’t capable of. At full strength, this is still a very good offense, but they will have to figure things out quickly because it is not getting much easier anytime soon. George Kittle missed last week with a hamstring injury but has said that he is definitely playing in this game. The timing for the 49ers keeps getting worse as Brock Purdy is now dealing with a shoulder injury that has severely limited his practice reps the first two days this week.
The status of Purdy will obviously have an impact on the game in many ways, but we must not forget that the 49ers under Kyle Shanahan have been able to plug and play a lot of backup quarterbacks with relative success due to the quality of offensive system they have and the talent they have at the skill positions. The 49ers offense is built around their running game and much of the passing game is designed to get the ball into the hands of their skill players and let them make plays after the catch. Because of these dynamics, losing an elite (yes, I said it) QB in Purdy is not the death sentence for San Francisco that going to the backup can be for other teams – especially in a one-game sample size. Brandon Allen is the QB2 for the 49ers and would likely draw the start if Purdy is unable to go. It seems likely that the 49ers will leave this one up to game-time to decide as he is important enough that they’ll want to give him every chance to get cleared, and if he is unable to play, then from a strategic standpoint, it wouldn’t make sense to clarify that for the Packers earlier than they have to.
As for how the 49ers will attack Green Bay, what is clear at this point is they will be playing with a backup QB or with Purdy while he deals with a tight/sore/injured shoulder in cold weather. The Green Bay defense has given up some big games to high-profile RBs this season (Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, Kyren Williams), and one is likely on tap for Christian McCaffrey in this spot. Expect CMC to see his heaviest workload of the season as the 49ers fight for their season in what is sure to be a hostile Lambeau Field after San Francisco ended the Packers season in January. The likely return of George Kittle should make the run game more effective, as it historically has, and short passes to CMC and Deebo Samuel are likely to be the basis of the passing game at least early on as the 49ers are likely to open with a conservative game plan against a solid Packers pass defense that has PFF’s 8th ranked coverage grade. One positive for the 49ers passing game is the potential absence of Green Bay cornerback Jaire Alexander, who has not practiced yet this week with a knee injury. The Packers blitz at a low rate (26th in the league), and the 49ers have a solid offensive line, so they should be able to keep relatively clean pockets when they do pass, especially if they are focused on getting the ball out quickly. San Francisco ranks 2nd in the NFL in adjusted line yards per rush attempt, and, as noted earlier, the Packers have been susceptible on the ground to teams with strong running games. Expect the 49ers to ride their star RB for 25 to 30 touches and also involve Deebo Samuel more creatively than they have in recent weeks as the basis for their offense.
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