Thursday, Sep 28th

Demystifying Projections

Let’s dive into what makes up the projections. Let’s first look at minutes, as they drive so much of NBA scoring (and DFS success). The more a guy is on the court, the more opportunities he has to do things that generate points. A player who is projected to score 1.2 points per minute and is projected to play 20 minutes (thus, 24 points) might have the same median projection as a guy projected to score 0.8 points per minute and play 30 minutes (still 24 points) — but the guy who is projected to be on . . .

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