Bengals (

21.5) at
Texans (

24)

Published Sep 18, 2026 · 10:04 PM ET

HIBy HilowBioHide

ABOUT THE WRITER

Hilow is a tournament champion and game-theory specialist focused on mid- and high-stakes single-entry and three-max play. In the NFL Edge he maps how each team will try to win and where the clearest DFS leverage sits.

Go deeper: The Theory of Roster Construction→

GAME OVERVIEW::

• WR Nico Collins reportedly suffered a hamstring injury in practice Wednesday. Initial testing indicated it is unlikely to be a long-term issue but he is looking iffy to play in Week 2.
• QB Joe Burrow missed practice Wednesday with back stiffness. His quote to the media later in the day was pretty telling, effectively saying, “if I’m not having surgery, I’m playing.”
• The Cincinnati offense looked exactly the same to what we’ve grown accustomed to in recent seasons under Zac Taylor – zero under-center play for Joe Burrow, little pre-snap motion, and almost no play action. The offense is still designed to generate isolation and let his players win.
• Ja’Marr Chase against single-high since 2024: 32.43 percent TPRR, 2.74 YPRR, 0.66 FP/RR, 38.26 percent first-read target rate. The Texans led the league in single-high utilization in Week 1.

HOW CINCINNATI WILL TRY TO WIN::

All the talk throughout the offseason about Joe Burrow going under center at a higher rate to give the Bengals the ability to execute play action effectively basically fell flat on their face in Week 1. The Bengals ranked 27th in motion rate and dead last in play action rate against the Buccaneers. Watching the tape from that win, the bulk of the pre-snap motion that they did utilize was through either running back Chase Brown or the tight ends, with Andrei Iosivas utilized as the motion man on two snaps and Ja’Marr Chase utilized as the motion man on three snaps. Tee Higgins was never in motion as the X receiver. The snaps Burrow was under center mostly came in predictable situations. The offense is still almost entirely based out of shotgun, with route concepts and personnel alignment designed to generate isolation. Yea, nothing has changed in Zac Taylor’s offense, at least not based on what we saw in Week 1. Their first offensive touchdown of the day came with Higgins in the slot, who ran a quick out to isolate tight end Mike Gesicki inside, who fell into the end zone on a plodding slant. The next was a Chase Brown run from the green zone with Burrow under center. They would add a field goal before the half and three more after the break, and the scoop-and-score fumble recovery touchdown early in the game. That was it. Nothing overly inspiring. They turn the page to Week 2 in an interesting macro matchup against a Texans defense that blitzed about three times less in Week 1 but led the league in single-high utilization through a mix of Cover-1 and Cover-3. That last bit is interesting considering the Buccaneers finished Week 1 ranked second in single-high rate.

Lead back Chase Brown handled 73.3 percent of the backfield’s opportunities in Week 1 but managed just 3.5 yards per carry on 16 attempts. That should be expected against a run defense as stout as the Buccaneers. The problem is that the Texans are equally as strong against the run after holding the Bills to 4.1 yards per carry on the backs of a 2025 season in which they hold opponents to 3.9 yards per carry. Furthermore, the Texans filtered a middling 5.4 targets to opposing backfields a season ago. His level of involvement in the offense keeps his floor high but the matchup condenses the range of outcomes to the point that I won’t have much interest in Week 2.

Ja’Marr Chase against single-high since 2024: 32.43 percent TPRR, 2.74 YPRR, 0.66 FP/RR, 38.26 percent first-read target rate. You don’t need me to tell you Chase is elite, but those numbers are video-game-level elite. Furthermore, the Texans actually present an interesting matchup for the Bengals considering the static nature of their defense in Week 1. All of Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter, and Jalen Pitre effectively played “sides,” or static positions on the field, within a defensive structure that played almost exclusively from single-high. Since Taylor is effectively aiming to generate one-on-one situations through the air through alignment and structure, it should be much easier for him to do that effectively against a more static defense. That was a lot of words to get to the conclusion that Chase carries immense upside in this spot, and I can’t currently say with certainty where his ownership will come in after disappointing massively against the Buccaneers. I have a hunch it’ll be much lower than it otherwise should be in this spot. Higgins and Mike Gesicki take meaningful backseats in underlying metrics against single-high, while Andrei Iosivas is mostly a “sacrificial-X” in this offense.

DFS+ INTERPRETATION::