Browns (

16.25) at
Bucs (

25.25)

Published Sep 18, 2026 · 10:08 PM ET

HIBy HilowBioHide

ABOUT THE WRITER

Hilow is a tournament champion and game-theory specialist focused on mid- and high-stakes single-entry and three-max play. In the NFL Edge he maps how each team will try to win and where the clearest DFS leverage sits.

Go deeper: The Theory of Roster Construction→

GAME OVERVIEW::

• Breaking News – Deshaun Watson is beyond cooked. More at 11.
• Raheim Sanders stepped into the vacated third down role following the departure of Dylan Sampson, the latter of whom was placed on IR Tuesday.
• The Browns were the only team in the league to average fewer yards per carry than their adjusted run-blocking yards metric suggests.
• The Buccaneers coughed the football up four times in Week 1, but otherwise did not punt. Clean up the mental errors, win the game. That is likely their focus heading into a game they are expected to handle business in.
• Both RB Sean Tucker and WR Jalen McMillan returned to full practices on Wednesday after missing Week 1.

HOW CLEVELAND WILL TRY TO WIN::

I don’t think the Browns know how they will try to win. Their offense is completely hamstrung by their quarterback situation, their defense was vanilla and predictable, there was little to no fight on either side of the ball, and they were held to three total points for over 58 minutes of the game. Poor Todd Monken. But also, why take that job? Actually, poor Browns fans. I digress. The Browns left Week 1 ranked dead last in motion rate (32.7 percent) and ranked 19th in PROE+, effectively resigned to getting through the game as quickly as possible. The thing is, I don’t know if we can expect those tendencies to change, meaning we’re likely looking at another week in which the Browns are simply trying to make it through the game without doing too many stupid things. It sounds harsh, but that’s the reality of what we were shown on the field in their opener.

The injury to Dylan Sampson created opportunity in long down-and-distance situations for someone to step into, and it was somewhat shocking to me that they chose to fill those situations with Raheim Sanders instead of trickling some scraps to lead back Quinshon Judkins. Even so, Judkins accounted for a healthy 77.8 percent team opportunity share, good for ninth highest in the league in Week 1. The Cleveland offensive line actually played pretty well in that game, leaving their opener with the fourth highest ARBY. The backs were another story, finishing the week as the only backfield to rush for fewer yards than were blocked for them. Literally nothing went right for this team against the Jaguars, and it is hard for me to get on board with anything going right for them on the ground against a Todd Bowles defense with Vita Vea clogging the middle of the field.

The Cleveland pass offense did not look like we expected coming into the regular season after a full offseason of reports that led us down the path of Kevin “Kevin Concepcion” Concepcion. Sidebar, I found out very late in the offseason that the “KC” in KC Concepcion’s name literally stands for “Kevin Concepcion.” Anywho, the rookie was in a route at a lowly 59.3 percent clip against the Jaguars, fourth on the team behind Denzel Boston, Jerry Jeudy, and Harold Fannin Jr., with 62.5 percent of his snaps coming from the slot. The offense being more rigid in structure meant that the wide receivers mostly stuck to a position, with Boston the X, Jeudy the Z, and Concepcion the Y/slot, with Fannin somewhat “relegated” to heavier inline rates (lowly 19 percent slot rate). Jeudy is toast, Fannin is effectively changing positions relative to his role from 2025, and Concepcion appears unlikely to see a role conducive to upside. That leaves Boston as the only player that realistically could see enough opportunity to matter through the air, and even then, Deshaun Watson is “throwing” him the football. I saw a lot of people talking up his late touchdown throw to Boston after Week 1, but man, his mechanics on that deep throw looked worse than Philip Rivers (love you, Phil), and it looked like that was a maximum capacity throw (it was 46 yards). I hate to say it (not really), but Watson is beyond cooked, and his time as the starter is likely to come to an end in short order. I want no part of this pass offense, even if there’s a fire.

DFS+ INTERPRETATION::