Vikings (

21) at
Bears (

25.5)

Published Sep 18, 2026 · 10:10 PM ET

HIBy HilowBioHide

ABOUT THE WRITER

Hilow is a tournament champion and game-theory specialist focused on mid- and high-stakes single-entry and three-max play. In the NFL Edge he maps how each team will try to win and where the clearest DFS leverage sits.

Go deeper: The Theory of Roster Construction→

GAME OVERVIEW::

• Bears HC Ben Johnson was serious when he said he wanted to set the NFL record for scoring in a season. He’ll have an entirely different challenge against the Vikings than the one presented to him against the Panthers in Week 1.
• There is nothing in the data or on tape that gives me confidence in projecting any Bears pass-catcher over the others, outside of saying “Rome Odunze has beaten the matchup the best in a small sample.”
• Bears RBs ranked first (Swift) and sixth (Monangai) in rush EPA/play while leading the league in yards per carry in Week 1, while the offensive line ranked third in adjusted run-blocking yards (ARBY), per statrankings.com.
• Justin Jefferson is going to project extremely well in this spot.
• Another spot where it’s going to be extremely difficult to project Bears pass-catchers.
• UPDATE: RB Jordan Mason was placed on IR Wednesday.

HOW MINNESOTA WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Vikings lost their starting quarterback in Week 1 and proceeded to rank 31st in PROE+ against the Packers, a stat designed to measure both PROE and pace of play, per statrankings.com. Throwing a further wrench into expectations in Week 2 is the potential absence of running back Jordan Mason (UPDATE: Mason was placed on IR Wednesday). About two-thirds of the players who enter the concussion protocol fail to gain clearance the following week under the league’s updated protocols, meaning we should expect Kyler Murray to miss Week 2. Adding the fact that the Bears just hung 59 points on the Panthers leads to a situation in which we can be highly confident in a more possession-style, control the clock offensive stance from the Vikings to start this one.

The Vikings worked out three running backs on Tuesday, which raises concerns surrounding the expected level of health of Mason after the veteran back emerged from Week 1 with a thumb injury (UPDATE: Mason was placed on IR Wednesday). Veteran journeyman DeeJay Dallas served as the RB3 in Week 1, likely due to his contribution on special teams, while sixth-round rookie Demond Claiborne was a game-day inactive. I would expect Claiborne to be active and immediately step into the 1B role behind aging veteran Aaron Jones, should Mason be unable to go. That’s important in this spot considering the Bears allowed 5.7 yards per carry to the Panthers. I don’t expect Jones to be charged with a significant uptick in opportunities considering his age and the team’s unwillingness to give one back the bulk of the workload in the past. Finally, the Vikings ranked just 29th in ARBY in Week 1 against a Packers defense without Micah Parsons.

Jordan Addison just saw two targets on an 85.7 percent route participation as the primary deep option through the air, paving the way for Justin Jefferson to notch an elite 8-92-2 receiving line as the primary target. We’ve seen this story unfold before with Carson Wentz under center. The veteran slinger completely locks onto his top option, having fed Jefferson 10 targets per game when starting a season ago. That setup came within an offensive structure that refused to abandon the run while playing from behind deep into the third quarter, resulting in the seventh lowest PROE in Week 1. In other words, expect the Vikings to approach this game with a balanced game plan, until otherwise forced. Tight end T.J. Hockenson continues to look like he’s running through mud in routes and ran only 14 routes in Week 1, although the caveat there is that he saw a 28.57 percent TPRR in that sample. Jauan Jennings and tight end Josh Oliver were the only other players to run a route other than the backs and are both not worthy of consideration. Finally, Bears cornerback Tyrique Stevenson allowed the highest rating in coverage in Week 1, reinforcing one of our major talking points going into last week regarding the state of the Chicago secondary.

DFS+ INTERPRETATION::