Panthers (

23) at
Falcons (

20.5)

Published Sep 18, 2026 · 10:02 PM ET

HIBy HilowBioHide

ABOUT THE WRITER

Hilow is a tournament champion and game-theory specialist focused on mid- and high-stakes single-entry and three-max play. In the NFL Edge he maps how each team will try to win and where the clearest DFS leverage sits.

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GAME OVERVIEW::

• Atlanta’s QB situation is a hot mess – Tua Tagovailoa did not practice Wednesday and is trending toward a second straight absence, Michael Penix Jr. got in a full practice but is reportedly still not ready for game action, Cooper Rush has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league the last two seasons and is experiencing back spasms, and Jack Strand is an undrafted free agent rookie. Head coach Kevin Stefanski would not speculate on the starter for Week 2 Wednesday, but most signs point to Rush getting another crack under center.
• OG Chris Lindstrom and CB A.J. Terrell also missed practice Wednesday.
• WR Jalen Coker (ankle) was limited Wednesday but is trending toward playing against the Falcons.
• Panthers OC Brad Idzik put some solid fundamentals on tape in his first game calling offensive plays in Carolina, but there were numerous areas that still need significant improvement. More on this below.

HOW CAROLINA WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Panthers ranked 14th in motion rate, 19th in play action rate, and third in CPOE+ in Week 1, with first-time offensive play caller Brad Idzik doing a solid job with structure and execution in his first game at the helm of the offense in Carolina. He received poor marks in sequencing and diversification, although some of that can be attributed to his team falling behind 21-7 early in the second quarter. Either way, what he put on tape was leagues better than what Dave Canales had the previous two seasons, giving us legitimate hope for the Panthers after two rather poor seasons. Sure, the Panthers went to the playoffs by “winning” the NFC South. The reality of the situation is they were out-scored by almost 70 points last year and managed to back their way into the postseason with a losing record (8-9). The final comment here regards the motion that was utilized in that the bulk was executed via tight ends and running backs, which has proven to lack the same impact as motioning a wide receiver. Idzik utilized wide receiver motion on only three offensive snaps, twice by Legette and once by McMillan, and he was highly predictable with the motion he did utilize. If a tight end was in motion, it was a run to the strong side. He’ll have to do better with sequencing and disguising the motion before this offense takes a significant step forward.

Chuba Hubbard operated as a borderline workhorse following an offseason dominated by Jonathon Brooks headlines. Much of that can likely be attributed to the fact that Brooks missed significant time leading up to the season, or can it? The truth is we really don’t know for certain. I’m keeping an open mind with this backfield moving forward until we see an established trend. For his part, Hubbard ran really well against the Bears, but so too would most backs because that defense is… woof. Hubbard’s 71 percent snap rate translated to a suboptimal 54.2 percent opportunity share. His 4.9 yards per carry was undersold by only 10 rush attempts due primarily to game environment, with a fantasy score buoyed by two total touchdowns. The truth likely rests somewhere in the middle, with Hubbard a middling lead back talent in an offense that should find middling success on the ground throughout the season. The Falcons just held Pittsburgh running backs to a paltry 2.8 yards per carry after allowing 4.6 yards per carry in 2025. It’s a middling spot on paper.

The Carolina pass offense was a highly concentrated unit in Week 1, with only Tetairoa McMillan (90.7 percent), Jalen Coker (81.4 percent), Xavier Legette (60.5 percent), and Chuba Hubbard (55.8 percent) in a route on more than 40 percent of the team’s dropbacks, with tight ends Darren Waller and Tommy Tremble both checking in at 39.5 percent. Things condense further considering Legette has effectively been thrown to the wolves in a sacrificial X-type role and Waller and Tremble are sharing the pass-catching tight end role. The big talking point this offseason surrounding this pass game was the desire to move McMillan around the formation more to do a better job of generating mismatches for their alpha receiver. And while his slot snap rate ticked up slightly in Week 1 compared to his rookie season (27 percent versus 20 percent), he was not utilized in motion (one snap in motion) nor did we see an expanding route tree. There is still a way to go before I view McMillan as a true alpha, like some had this offseason during Best Ball season. The matchup through the air could get a substantial boost should A.J. Terrell be unable to go as injuries continue to mount in the Atlanta secondary.

DFS+ INTERPRETATION::