Game Overview ::
By PAPY324 >>
- Isiah Pacheco is tentatively expected to make his return from the IR this week. If he doesn’t return, Kareem Hunt is underpriced.
- Jonathon Brooks will make his season debut for the Panthers and is likely to cut into Chuba Hubbard’s workload.
- DeAndre Hopkins played 47% of the snaps last week with JuJu Smith-Schuster healthy.
- Patrick Mahomes has scored above 20 DK points only once all year and hasn’t broken 25 DK points in any game.
- Travis Kelce posted a four-target dud last week, but the prior three weeks he saw elite target volume. His price decreased by $500, despite an excellent matchup.
- Bryce Young has looked serviceable the past two games, but both of his wins came against weak defenses.
- Adam Thielen is expected to return, which should squeeze Jalen Coker’s usage.
- Xavier Legette is functioning as the WR1 since the Panthers traded away Diontae Johnson and Jonathan Mingo.
HOW KANSAS CITY WILL TRY TO WIN ::
It’s hard to win every game, and the 1972 Dolphins can officially pop their bottle of champagne. The 9-1 Chiefs are coming off a hard-fought loss, on the road, against an 8-2 Bills team that looks like their biggest competition in the AFC. The Patrick Mahomes Chiefs being 9-1 feels like old news, but what has been different this year is how they’re winning. The Chiefs have been an extremely pass-heavy team during the Andy Reid/Mahomes era. This year, they’ve been more pass-leaning than pass-heavy. The Chiefs led the league with a positive 7% // 11% // 10% // 10% pass rate over expectation (PROE) value in each of the past four years respectively. This year, they still rank No. 2 in PROE, but with only a positive 2% value. The Chiefs, like the rest of the league (except the Bengals), have eased up on their pass-heavy tendencies. Also, it’s not as if the Chiefs have been overpowering (13th in DVOA) when they do pass. Their offensive line is still good (No. 6 rank by PFF), and they’re especially strong at the interior positions. Of the 10 pressures they allowed against the Bills, seven of them were by one of the two tackles. The Panthers won’t be able to take advantage (31st in sack percentage) since they’ve failed to generate a pass rush all year. The Chiefs’ offense has been mediocre, and they’ve run up an impressive record on the back of their defense, which has been strong (seventh in overall DVOA), while allowing the fourth-fewest points in the AFC.
Reid is a savvy coach who has always leaned into the passing game but is willing to adjust if his opponent is more vulnerable against the run because of scheme or personnel. This week, Reid sees a bottom-feeding Panthers defense that has been whooped (32nd in DVOA) on the ground and smacked (30th in DVOA) through the air. The Panthers barely-there defense has been beat coming and going. They are nothing but least resistance and Reid should be able to move the ball however he chooses. Normally, that would be with a pass-heavy game plan, but with the Chiefs being more balanced this year and the expected return of Pacheco from the IR, there is a good chance Reid decides the easiest thing to do is run over the helpless Panthers. Reid has been willing to slow down (23rd in seconds per play) this season, while running the ball and playing defense. That’s an easy formula for coming out of this game with a victory, and it’s the most likely way the Chiefs will try to win.
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.