XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 8 kicks off with the Vikings, fresh off their first defeat of the season, visiting the Rams. This game has a 48-point total with Minnesota favored by 3, which at first glance seems dismissive of just how good the Vikings have been but there’s a narrative to consider here. Every team that played the Lions lost the following week (in some cases quite badly, such as the Seahawks losing at home to the lowly Giants). The story here is something like “the Lions are a super physical team, so their opponents are worn out/beat up and can’t play as well next week.” I’ll be honest, I don’t really buy that. It’s not as if we haven’t seen “physical” teams in the NFL before, so in order to believe this, you kind of have to believe that the Lions are the MOST physical team in the entire history of the league. I just have a hard time believing that personally. I think it’s likely just noise more than actionable data, but it’s worth mentioning as something to consider and decide if you want to play into this narrative. 

Los Angeles

We’ll start with the Rams and their run game. There was some coachspeak prior to last Sunday’s game that they wanted to get Blake Corum involved more and have more of a split between him and Kyren Williams. Of course, like most coachspeak, that turned out to be BS as Kyren played 89% of the snaps and handled 21 running back opportunities while Corum handled 3 (and this was in a game that the Rams controlled throughout). Now, maybe with Cooper Kupp off the injury report and coming back from a multi-week ankle injury, they take the opportunity to give Kyren a bit of a rest? I suppose that’s possible but overall, I think Kyren has just been so good that as long as a game is in contention they have a hard time pulling him off the field. He’s the main key to this offense. He has a nightmare matchup against a Vikings team that is allowing just 80 rushing yards per game on 4 yards per carry (5th lowest in the league), but as long as the game is competitive, he’s going to be in there. What’s worth noting, though, is that Kyren has turned into a two-down back this year. Last year he averaged 4 targets per game – not exactly full-on three-down bell cow territory, but that’s a solid receiving role. This year, he has 15 targets in 6 games for 2.5 targets/game, and that’s with the Rams top two wide receivers having missed most of the season! He’s a capable receiver and the passing game role could spike back up, but what we’ve seen so far is that he’s heavily involved on the ground but not so much through the air. His production has also been propped up by a massive red zone role with 9 touchdowns on the year (and at least one in every game). He has 37 red zone opportunities (!). Every other Ram COMBINED has 28. I do think that with Kupp back he’ll eat into the red zone work at least a bit, but the overall story should remain the same: when the Rams get close, Kyren is the massive favorite to be the one to get into the end zone. His lack of receiving work this season makes him a little more sensitive to game script than we’d like, and his price is enormous. Personally, I’m a little iffy on him as he’s not a bad play, but there are just other options I would prefer to spend on at the high end. RB2 Blake Corum is barely seeing the field so he is something of a hope-and-prayer MME play (you either need Kyren to get hurt or a sudden change in role). 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, getting Cooper Kupp back is obviously a huge boost to a passing offense that has really struggled without their top two guys. It’s unclear how much Kupp will play as coach Sean McVay noted his workload is “to be determined,” but given a full practice and that the Rams took it pretty cautiously with him, my best guess is he returns to a full role. The Vikings, in part due to their elite offense blowing people out, and in part because of how good they are against the run, are facing the highest opposing passing play percentage in the NFL at 70%. There should be volume to go around for the Rams pass catchers. If Kupp plays a full role he looks like an absolute smash in a game where we can reasonably project Matt Stafford to throw 36 or so times as a floor with upside well beyond that. I’m hoping that his first game back will keep ownership a bit away from him. After Kupp, things get confusing. Jordan Whittington was playing a huge role in Weeks 4 and 5 but then apparently picked up an injury and wasn’t able to play in Week 7, but the Rams didn’t have enough space to make him inactive so they left him active and he just didn’t play (while being major DFS chalk!). Whoops. He’s also Kupp’s direct backup, so I doubt he plays much at all now that Kupp is back. That still leaves us with three wide receivers for two more spots. DeMarcus Robinson, Tutu Atwell, and Tyler Johnson played full-time roles last week. My best guess here is that it’s Johnson who goes back to the bench, as he’s played the fewest snaps of the trio on the season and is the best fit for the slot role that Kupp primarily runs. If I’m wrong, then it’s Atwell. Robinson’s role should be safe no matter what. Speaking of my DFS nemesis, Robinson was playing a significant role for the Rams last season but this year he’s looked more like his Chiefs days – on the field a ton but barely seeing any volume with just 26 targets on the season (and remember, all of the Rams target data has to be taken with the context that their two primary wideouts have missed most of the season, so for the guy with the starting WR3 job at the beginning of the year to have only seen 26 targets in six games is . . . real bad). He’s just $3k so he makes for a reasonable value option and if we think we’re getting elevated passing volume there’s more to go around, so he’s a decent floor, questionable ceiling play. Atwell being just $4,200 sure looks like a nice value as he’s played 70% or more of the snaps for four games and has seen 5, 6, 10, and 9 targets in that game, good for a 20/284/0 line. Without scoring a touchdown he’s put up at least 11.1 DK points in each of the last four weeks, which you’d be quite happy with at $4,200. He’s my favorite value play in the game. Johnson is harder to play and would just be an MME punt option for me. 

At tight end, Colby Parkinson saw his snaps decrease last week for a season-low 64% which is not bad, but I just have a hard time seeing him finding a ceiling. He’s been chalky on main slates for a while now despite only having put up double-digit DK points once this season and that took 13 targets. He doesn’t have a lot of per-target yardage upside. However, he is leading the team in red zone targets with 6, and while Kupp will pass him soon, he’ll be involved there. He’s basically a guy who almost certainly needs a touchdown to pay off but has at least a somewhat decent chance of getting one. I prefer the kickers in this price range but will have some. TE2 Hunter Long has 3 targets on the season, and then Davis Allen saw the field for a season high 22% of the snaps last week. I’d guess he’ll usurp Long in snap counts but we’re talking a 5th round rookie tight end who averaged under two catches per game in college, so he’s just another MME punt option.

Minnesota

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• Browns C Ethan Pocic (knee) and OT Jedrick Wills (knee) did not practice Wednesday. In fact, four of the team’s starting offensive linemen were on the first injury report Wednesday with knee injuries, as OT Jack Conklin and OG Wyatt Teller practiced in a limited fashion with knee injuries as well.
• RB Jerome Ford, who is coming off his first missed game of the season, did not practice Wednesday for the Browns either.
• Ravens WR Zay Flowers (ankle) was an estimated non-participant on the team’s Wednesday injury report after suffering an ankle injury early in the team’s Week 7 win. He missed the remainder of the drive but played the majority of the game (71% snap rate) in addition to recovering the second of two onside kick attempts from the Buccaneers. It is important to note that the Ravens played on Monday in Week 7, so they did not hold a full practice to begin the week.
• The Browns have some significant changes on the offensive side of the ball this week, with Jameis Winston expected to start under center and offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey expected to take over offensive play calling duties.
• Dorsey’s Bills averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game in 2022 and 35.0 pass attempts per game in the first ten games of the 2023 season before he was fired after a 5-5 start.
• Joe Flacco averaged 41.67 pass attempts per game during the final five regular season games of the 2023 season in relief of Deshaun Watson.

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

The Ravens remain a team that prefers to ride the ground game for as long as they are allowed to, primarily through running back Derrick Henry and quarterback Lamar Jackson. That said, they have shown the ability and willingness to open up the offense through the air if the game environment dictates. Even so, we should expect the offensive game plan to start with a run-heavy attack built around their elite offensive line (most yards generated before contact per attempt) and the running back with the most yards on the ground this season in Derrick Henry. Considering the Browns rank second in man coverage rate (42.9%) and first in single-high alignments (71.2%), there’s nothing in the matchup that should preclude the Ravens from attacking in their preferred method here, with the most interesting aspect of the matchup being the league-leading pressure rate of the Cleveland defense (42.5%). That theoretically gives Lamar Jackson additional upside through the potential for additional scrambles, although those would have to come on pass plays, and we don’t expect the Ravens to come into the game looking for elevated dropback totals. Either way, Jackson has a clear path to double-digit carries in this matchup. Lead wide receiver Zay Flowers was listed as a DNP on the team’s estimated injury report Wednesday, but I expect him to continue to play through the ankle injury sustained early in the team’s Week 7 win over the Buccaneers, considering he returned on the team’s next drive after sitting out the remainder of the drive he got injured on. He was also used on special teams to recover an onside kick, telling me the injury was not a serious one.

Derrick Henry continues to see one of the highest snap-to-opportunity ratios in the league, with 15 carries and one target on 34 offensive snaps against the stout Tampa run defense on Monday. Justice Hill forms a solid one-two punch as the primary change of pace and clear passing situation back, while fullback Patrick Ricard continues to see his snaps influenced largely by game flow. The truth of the matter with this Baltimore run game is that the vast majority of the carries and production on the ground flows through Henry and Jackson for the team leading the league in rush attempts per game at 34.1. The matchup is “fine” on paper against a Browns defense, allowing 4.4 yards per carry and 1.63 yards before contact behind the offensive line, generating the most yards before contact per attempt in the league.

Tight ends Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews continue to split offensive reps with Likely out-snapping Andrews in every game since Week 1. The elevated rates of jumbo personnel groupings this offense plays typically confines the primary wide receivers to sub-elite snap rates, led by Zay Flowers in a 70-80% snap rate role. Rashod Bateman has come on strong of late but has seen over a modest four targets just twice this season in a role that is almost exclusively of the downfield nature (sixth-ranked 14.8 aDOT). Finally, Nelson Agholor and Tylan Wallace mix in for situational reps and are largely afterthoughts through the air. The elevated rates of man coverage and single-high alignments from the Browns heavily favor Flowers, who has put up 0.53 fantasy points per route run against single-high and 0.42 fantasy points per route run against man coverage this season.

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Lions WR Jameson Williams is reportedly looking at a two-game suspension after violating the league’s performance-enhancing substances (PES). policies. He has yet to be officially suspended (as of Thursday morning) but also reportedly is not going to appeal the suspension when it comes.
• Titans QB Will Levis appears likely to miss his second consecutive game with an AC joint injury that occurred when he landed on his throwing shoulder attempting to reach for a first down in Week 4. Levis played in Week 6 after the team’s bye but was held out in Week 7.
• Titans RB Tyjae Spears got in a limited session Wednesday after missing Week 7 with a hamstring injury. He was initially deemed to be week-to-week, making it uncertain whether or not to expect him against the Lions.
• The Titans have just four wide receivers on the roster currently, which includes 2024 sixth-round draft pick Jha’Quan Jackson. Treylon Burks hit IR and they dealt away DeAndre Hopkins this week.

How TENNESSEE Will Try To Win ::

Levis got in a limited session Wednesday, but the nature of his injury (AC joint) hints at another missed contest in Week 8 against the Lions. Mason Rudolph came into the team’s Week 4 game in relief of the injured Levis but has played just one game this season in which he was the starter (last week’s contest against the Bills). The Titans traded away Hopkins this week, shipping him off to the Chiefs for draft-pick compensation. The Titans are clearly entering rebuilding mode after making noise this offseason for their acquisitions. That said, their defense remains intact, a unit playing at an extremely high level currently, albeit while dealing with numerous key injuries of late. Finally, the Tennessee offensive line has played well below their talent in both aspects this season, ranking 31^st in pass-blocking efficiency (80 total pressures allowed in six games played – only the Patriots, Browns, and Seahawks have allowed more pressures per game) and 31^st in yards before contact per attempt (1.21). Even with a pass rate over expectation (PROE) value that ranks near the middle of the pack, consistently negative game scripts have forced the Titans into 30.3 pass attempts per game this season, but they would very clearly prefer to manage the game environment through slow pace of play (31^st-ranked 31.9 seconds per play) and increased time of possession (sixth-ranked average time of possession this season at 31:45).

Most of that is likely to go out the window at some point against a Lions team that ranks third in points per game (30.3, having scored 31, 47, and 42 the previous three games), first in PROE forced on defense, and second in rush attempts faced per game (20.2). Lead back Tony Pollard has seen between 18 and 24 running back opportunities in five of six games this season, leaving him with one of the more bankable weekly projections in the league. That said, as we’ve continued to state this season, he has very few paths for truly elite volume in this offense even without Spears. That assertion is backed up by the fact this team has averaged only 59.7 plays per game while ranking sixth in average time of possession, combining with a 31^st-ranked pace of play and a defense allowing the fewest yards per game (272.2) to subdue total offensive plays. Now consider the matchup, and there’s a lot left to be desired from the Tennessee run game here.

The pass-catching corps is now spearheaded by Ridley, albeit in a role that is almost exclusively of the downfield variety. Ridley’s 17.6-yard aDOT is the second deepest in the league and his target quality rating ranks 95^th, leading to the most unrealized air yards in the league (a laughable 510 unrealized air yards through just six games played – that is truly remarkable, like, laughably bad). As in, Ridley currently has 635 total air yards, 510 of which have gone unrealized. With Hopkins no longer in town, expect Nick Westbrook-Ikhine to serve as the primary intermediate option in the offense, with slot receiver Tyler Boyd playing a prototypical slot-receiver role in both snap rate and route structure. At this point in his career, on this offense, there is very little meat left on the bone for per-target upside. And then there’s a three-headed abomination at tight end amongst Chigoziem Okonkwo, Josh Whyle, and Nick Vannett, a split that leaves very little room for upside for any of the three. 

How DETROIT Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Colts face the highest rush rate over expectation (RROE) in the league and Texans RB Joe Mixon ranks eighth in opportunity share in healthy games this season (73.4%), averaging 19.3 carries and 3.5 targets per game.
• Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell dominate first-read target rate (34.4% and 37.5%, respectively) and targets per route run (27% and 24%, respectively) without Collins, but Diggs has amassed just 100 yards through the air while Dell has accounted for only 57 yards in the two games without Collins this season.
• The Texans have transitioned their offense to heavy 12-personnel utilization without Collins, averaging a 49% 12-personnel utilization rate the previous two games.
• The Colts still rank dead last in average time of possession (26:12) and have struggled to maintain drives with Anthony Richardson under center. They now face a Texans defense that structurally forces opponents to drive the field against them.
• The Texans have numerous high-profile injuries in their defense, with Azeez Al-Shaair, Will Anderson, Henry To’oTo’o, and Jimmie Ward still present on the team’s first injury report of the week.
• Colts WRs Michael Pittman (back) and Josh Downs (groin/toe) again started their week of preparation with a DNP on Wednesday. The two have been managing injuries for the previous three weeks.
• Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle) started his practice week with a limited session Wednesday and appears ready to return from a three-game absence.

How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

The Colts rank bottom 10 in pass rate over expectation (PROE), plays per game, drive success rate, and total pass volume, and they rank 16^th in total offense and 18^th in points per game. To put into perspective how poor Richardson has been as a passer this season, his completion rate is 8% lower than Bryce Young, ranked dead last by a wide margin. Of quarterbacks that have appeared in four or more games this season, only Young has a worse passer rating. Only Young has a worse completion rate over expectation, a weighted metric to account for depth of target in the completion-rate formula. The Colts have averaged just 54.75 offensive plays per game in Richardson’s four full games this season, with total pass volume in those games of 19, 34, 20, and 24 pass attempts. It becomes clear fairly quickly that Shane Steichen wants to do everything in his power to keep the ball on the ground for as long as possible, considering Richardson has turned the ball over in each of his four full games via six interceptions and one lost fumble (four total fumbles).

Taylor returned to the practice field for the first time since suffering a high-ankle sprain in Week 4, logging a limited session on Wednesday to start the week. I currently expect him to return with no limitation after missing three games. That’s an interesting setup, considering Taylor ranks second in snap rate (77.5%) and first in opportunity share (88.2%) in healthy games this season, clearly operating as one of the few workhorse backs in the league. He has put up “good not great” metrics this season, with 4.8 yards per carry behind 2.75 yards after contact per attempt behind an offensive line blocking to the sixth-most yards before contact per attempt. The matchup is not great on paper against a Texans defense allowing just 1.37 yards before contact per attempt (third) and 4.5 yards per carry, but Taylor is likely to have volume on his side considering he has averaged 18 carries and 2.5 targets per game in a low-volume offense this season. Taylor’s likely return to the lineup is likely to influence the snaps and opportunities of Trey Sermon more than Tyler Goodson, the latter of whom is better suited to change-of-pace duties behind the skill set of Taylor.

Pittman has seen target counts of 8 // 7 // 5 // 5 in Richardson’s four fully healthy games, returning yardage totals of 31, 21, 36, and 63 in those games. Downs missed the first two games of the season, leaving him with target counts with Richardson of five and three and yardage totals with Richardson of 22 and three. Alec Pierce continues to operate as the primary downfield threat with both Pittman and Downs confined to short-to-intermediate work, but he’s seen target counts of just 3 // 7 // 2 // 5 in the four Richardson games. Finally, there are now four tight ends that see weekly snaps in this offense, with no player playing more than 50-55% of the offensive snaps on a weekly basis. Add it all up, and there isn’t a ton to love from this passing game considering Richardson’s struggles with accuracy, known offensive tendencies, and a matchup against a Texans defense that forces opponents to march the field.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>

• The Packers appear to be getting healthy after struggling through numerous injuries on both sides of the ball during the first seven weeks of the season, with only CB Corey Ballentine (ankle) missing practice through Thursday.
• Jaguars LB Foye Oluokun (foot) was designated to return from injured reserve and managed two limited sessions to start the week.
• Jaguars RB Travis Etienne (hamstring) logged back-to-back limited sessions to start the week, with his status on Friday likely dictating whether or not he carries an injury designation into the weekend.
• There are legitimate paths to fantasy goodness from this game environment but one-off bets are rather thin.

How GREEN BAY Will Try To Win ::

As we’ve talked about in the past, Packers head coach Matt LaFleur is one of the most dynamic offensive play callers in the league, capable of taking what the opponent gives him and exploiting it to the maximum extent possible. We saw that on display last week against the Texans when he looked to exploit the injuries of their defense with his highest pass rate over expectation (PROE) of the season. That’s an interesting dynamic of this offense to understand as it pertains to their opponent in Week 8, a Jaguars team that has forced the third-highest PROE against this season, behind only the Lions and Ravens. Furthermore, every opponent against the Jaguars has held PROE values other than the Dolphins in Week 1. Simply understanding LaFleur’s tendencies paints a clear path to a slight uptick in pass volume from the Packers here, with the potential for an increased deep passing rate against a Jaguars team that reverted back to increased rates of man coverage with the return of All-Pro cornerback Tyson Campbell in Week 7 (40.5%).

Josh Jacobs has settled into a consistent role for the Packers, seeing 15 or more running back opportunities in all seven games but surpassing 21 opportunities just once (the first game without Jordan Love, when he saw 32 carries). The presence of Emanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks has meant the Packers can approach their backfield as we’ve grown accustomed to under LaFleur, with the lead back seeing roughly 66% of the backfield snaps and opportunities (Jacobs has seen a 65.2% snap rate and 66.5% opportunity share this season). The Jaguars rank 12^th in yards allowed before contact per attempt this season at 1.79 but have been much easier to attack through the air due to their heavy man coverage rates, leading to teams simply choosing to attack them in a pass-heavy way thus far. This isn’t a daunting on-paper matchup, but it is one that is better attacked via other means.

Against man coverage and with Love under center this season, Dontayvion Wicks has seen a ridiculous 53% targets-per-route-run rate and 30.4% first-read target rate, but all of Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, and Wicks have found success in that split, amassing 0.79 fantasy points per route run (FP/RR), 0.75 FP/RR, and 0.64 FP/RR, respectively. In other words, one of the receivers with a deeper aDOT has done the most damage against man coverage for the Packers this season. The biggest problem in that split is the fact that Wicks and Watson are effectively splitting a role in this offense at present, with Wicks reverting back to a 41% snap rate to the 53% snap rate of Watson with all four primary wide receivers healthy in Week 7.  In fact, in the five games this season with all four healthy and active, Wicks has not surpassed a 51% snap rate while Watson hasn’t surpassed a 63% snap rate, with Doubs continuing to lead the team in total snaps played this season, typically in the 75-85% snap-rate range. Tucker Kraft is playing as an every-down tight end in this offense, but he hasn’t seen more than five targets in the previous three games since erupting against the Vikings in that comeback effort in Week 4.

How JACKSONVILLE Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Dolphins have faced the fewest pass attempts per game this season at 25.5.
• The Dolphins rank dead last in pass rate over expectation (PROE).
• Both of those have likely been heavily influenced by the absence of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who is due back this week from his third professional concussion (upgraded to a full participant on Thursday, meaning he is likely in the final stages of the league’s concussion protocol).
• Tyreek Hill was added to the injury report Thursday as a limited participant with a foot injury. While we never like seeing mid-week additions, a limited showing with a foot ailment is likely not enough to keep him off the field unless he is further downgraded on Friday.
• Cardinals RB James Conner has seen 18 or more running back opportunities in five of seven games this season but has yet to see more than 23, giving him a rock hard floor but a questionable ceiling.
• Drew Petzing is Drew Petzinging hard this season (it took the field a while to catch up to his flat pass game scheme, but it appears they are finally seeing him for what he is, a master of the run game scheme and jester of the pass game scheme).

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

We know the drill with these Cardinals by now. They aim to force opponents to march the field against them through elevated Cover-4/quarters and Cover-6 utilization, except they are much more talent deprived than a lot of the teams looking to execute in that fashion on defense, which has led to an increased rate of explosive plays against this season. On offense, they want to manage the ball through sustained drives of their own, with a run scheme that functions well on tape and a pass game that is largely uninspiring and fails to place their play makers in position to best maximize their talents. This is just the truth of this offense and something we have been well ahead of the field in diagnosing this season. Nothing changes for a matchup against a Dolphins defense playing some inspired football through seven weeks, allowing just 285.2 total yards of offense per game (fourth).

The Dolphins have allowed just 1.70 yards before contact per attempt this season, which ranks 10^th in the league. But we know James Conner has become one of the most game environment agnostic running backs in the league; he hasn’t become this through elite talent but through consistent volume, regardless of game flow. Conner is as good a bet as any back on any slate to see 18+ running back opportunities, but an offense largely struggling to sustain drives has made his paths to truly elite weekly volume difficult to come by. Similar to Tony Pollard in Tennessee, Conner has seen 18+ running back opportunities in five of seven games but has not seen more than 23 in a game this season. This makes his weekly floor one of the more bankable floors in the league, albeit with an extremely narrow path to a true slate-breaking ceiling. Considering the matchup and expected game environment, I see no reason why that changes here. Emari Demercado and Trey Benson fill loose change of pace roles and each back has seen more than 15 offensive snaps in a game this season just once.

Similar to James Conner, third-year tight end Trey McBride has seen consistently middling volume this season, seeing between six and nine targets in every healthy game (missed Week 4 with a concussion). Rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. has all the talent in the world but has seen more than a modest eight targets just once all season, his blowup coming out party against the Rams where he did massive damage in the first quarter and did very little the rest of the game. The Dolphins have allowed the sixth highest rush rate over expectation this season, with much of that damage done in the four games played with Tagovailoa, leading to them facing the fewest pass attempts per game in the league at just 25.5. Michael Wilson is the only other near every-down pass-catcher in this offense but he has seen four or fewer targets in four of seven games this season, failing to see double-digit looks in any game. Uninspiring and flat, that’s really the status of this pass offense under offensive coordinator Drew Petzing.

How miami Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• The Patriots return home from their Week 7 loss in London to the Jaguars, as they attempt to navigate that extensive travel without a bye week.
• The Jets will attempt to salvage their season in what feels like a “must-win” game relatively early in the season.
• Breece Hall is heating up and showing the explosive ability that we weren’t seeing early in the year.
• Patriots rookie QB Drake Maye will make the third start of his career this week. He has thrown for 240+ yards and multiple touchdowns in each of his starts.
• The defenses for both of these teams have fallen off significantly this year from where they were in 2023.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The first game for the Jets with Davante Adams was disappointing, to say the least, as they took a 15-6 first half lead before being outscored 31-0 by Pittsburgh after that. New York had some good drives and chances to score but failed to convert some first downs and had a couple of costly turnovers at inopportune times. The big issues for New York were being unable to get their running game going and the pass rush of the Steelers disrupting the timing of their passing game. They were able to get to the quarterback quickly for much of the game and their linemen deflected several of the “quick hitters” that the Jets tried to run to counteract the pressure. This combination allowed the Steelers to shrink the field and sit on the shorter routes while knowing the Jets wouldn’t have time to let deeper routes develop. Most of the Jets offensive production was thanks to dynamic RB Breece Hall making big plays in the passing game, as he had six receptions for 103 receiving yards.

This week the Jets offense should have a much easier time in all aspects of the game. The Jets will face a Patriots run defense that ranks 27th in PFF run defense grade and 28th in DVOA. After dealing with the stout Steelers front, this should allow a more balanced approach for New York that relieves stress on all aspects of their offense. Through the air, Patriots defensive back Christian Gonzalez has been outstanding but New York now has two dynamic stars at WR so it’s not like they can just lock one down and be good to go, as whoever Gonzalez isn’t covering between Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson will have a plus matchup. Gonzalez did a nice job on Wilson in the first matchup between these teams. Allen Lazard, Mike Williams, and tight end Tyler Conklin provide a very talented group of secondary weapons that should also have success, and with the Jets running game likely to be more successful, we may see more of rookie RB Braelon Allen in this game than we did against the Bills and Steelers over the last two weeks. The big picture outlook for the Jets offense is that Hall, Wilson, and Adams are likely to account for the majority of the offense’s usage. That trio accounted for 70% of the opportunities (targets + carries) last week and we should expect a similar breakdown going forward, at least as long as games are in question. The Patriots defense is beatable in multiple ways and this is a spot where the Jets are likely to be aggressive as they try to get back on track and set the tone for the rest of their season.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>

• These two teams played to a 36-30 overtime thriller just three calendar weeks ago.
• That said, the Buccaneers are a very different team than the last time they met, with both Mike Evans (hamstring, potential IR candidate) and Chris Godwin (dislocated ankle, done for the season) set to miss Week 8.
• The Buccaneers are left with tight end Cade Otton and wide receivers Trey Palmer, Sterling Shepard, and rookie Jalen McMillan as their primary pass-catching options.
• Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving is reportedly a long shot to suit up in Week 8, likely leaving Rachaad White in the primary role with Sean Tucker as the change-of-pace option.

How ATLANTA Will Try To Win ::

As we’ve covered throughout the season, the Falcons are not going to be a team pushing the aggression on their own, with quarterback Kirk Cousins attempting more than 35 passes on just one occasion this season (the last time these two teams met). There is, however, something to be said of the fact that the Buccaneers are so difficult to run on that teams simply prefer to attack them through the air, as evidenced by their fifth-ranked pass rate over expectation (PROE) faced this season. But if the Falcons are in control of a game environment, they would much prefer to string together drives and dominate time of possession as opposed to looking to maximize scoring every time they touch the football. The offense is concentrated in the sense of snap rates, as there are five primary skill-position players to see 70%+ of the offensive snaps in a standard week: Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Ray-Ray McCloud, Bijan Robinson, and Kyle Pitts. That said, all five are utilized in conjunction, as opposed to one player clearly separating themselves from the pack in recent utilization.

This backfield is one of those situations where the change-of-pace back does just enough to preclude the lead back from entering workhorse territory, with Tyler Allgeier sapping just enough off of Robinson to hold the latter to sub-elite marks of 14.7 carries and 4.0 targets per game. Robinson ranks seventh in the league in red-zone opportunities with 21, but he has seen just two goal-line opportunities to the 16 red-zone and two goal-line opportunities of Allgeier. Considering the matchup against a Buccaneers defense facing the fifth-highest PROE this season, plus an increased chance that the Falcons control the game environment, and we’re left with sub-optimal expected workloads from this backfield. What is most important to understand from that exploration is a clear tendency from offensive Zac Robinson to get Allgeier more involved later in games the Falcons are in control of, capping Robinson’s upside in the process.

Drake London is the clear alpha through the air, leading the team in targets-per-route-run rate (TPRR, 28%), target market share (25.4%), and first-read target rate (36.0%), but the general lack of pass volume in this offense and a moderate 9.9-yard aDOT leaves him needing elite volume to return GPP viability. The next three primary pass catchers are all clumped together in underlying metrics, with all of Mooney, Pitts, and McCloud seeing a TPRR between 18% (McCloud) and 21% (Mooney) and a target rate between 20.5% (Mooney) and 14.3% (Pitts), and Mooney separating from the pack in first-read target rate at a solid 26.8%. Mooney’s 11.2-yard aDOT is most conducive to fantasy upside in the absence of volume and the Buccaneers have allowed a hefty 6.7 yards per pass attempt this season, but it is a thinner play than many will realize in this spot. Finally, the Buccaneers have dealt with numerous key injuries in their secondary, the most recent of which is standout corner Jamel Dean, who hit injured reserve with a hamstring injury Thursday. That likely thrusts rookie Tyrek Funderburk into a starting role opposite Zyon McCollum.

How TAMPA BAY Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• The notable players on the Eagles injury report early in the week are TE Dallas Goedert (DNP) with a hammy and DT Byron Young (DNP) with a hammy.
• The notable player on the Bengals injury report early in the week is Orlando Brown (LT) with a knee.
• This is a matchup between two teams who stay aggressive in close games but take the air out of the ball with a lead.
• Chase Brown and Zach Moss appear to have switched sides of their time share.
• Saquon Barkley is locked into a modern-day workhorse role and has looked great in his first opportunity with better teammates.
• Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are highly correlated with Joe Burrow. They all put up their best fantasy scores in close games.
• The Eagles aren’t throwing the ball but A.J. Brown has been able to thrive on limited volume.

How Philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

The 4-2 Eagles come into Week 8 in the middle of a competitive NFC East. They’re a game above the Cowboys and a game below the Commanders with all four of their head-to-head matchups still on the schedule. The Eagles have won three out of their last four but it’s worth noting that those wins came against Derek Carr, Deshaun Watson, and Daniel Jones. The Eagles have been playing on the quicker side (9^th in seconds per play) while favoring the run (24^th in PROE). This has been their offensive MO since Nick Sirianni took over. The “hurry up and run” works well when you have Saquon Barkley in the backfield. He is showing what he can do in his first chance to play with competent teammates (it’s frightening to think how good Saquon’s career might look if he didn’t waste away on the Giants). What has made Saquon’s performance more impressive is that the Eagles offensive line has started to slip. After perennially being a top five offensive line, they’re just above average this season (12^th ranked by PFF). Lane Johnson might still be the best tackle in football but the rest of the O-line has deteriorated. Fortunately for the Eagles, the Bengals have struggled to get pressure (30^th in sack percentage).  Even though the Eagles O-line isn’t what it once was, it should still be good enough for this matchup. 

The Bengals have been hurt through the air (20^th in DVOA) and on the ground (22^nd in DVOA), making them generally a weak defense. The Eagles offense got a big boost since A.J. Brown returned in Week 6. His presence has been clear on the scoreboard. In the three games he’s played, the Eagles are 3-0 while averaging 27.3 points per game. In the three games he missed, the Eagles are 1-2 while averaging 17.3 points. The Eagles offense isn’t the same without Brown and his return solidifies the idea that we will see them play in their usual style and that they are likely to find success with that style. Sirianni’s play calling is typically more influenced by game flow than his opponent’s strengths and weaknesses. He will take his foot off the gas with a lead but is happy to keep scoring points in competitive games. Expect the Eagles to come out trying to score with their typical fast moving, run oriented offense, while trying to set up shots down the field to Brown. If their approach works and the Bengals can’t keep up, they’ll be happy to take the air out of the ball in the second half while coasting to a comfortable victory.

How Cincinatti Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• The Saints appear on track to be starting 5th round rookie QB Spencer Rattler for the third straight game as Derek Carr has yet to practice with his oblique injury.
• The Chargers are playing on a short week after their last-second loss to the Cardinals on Monday night.
• There is a four day rest disparity in this game, as New Orleans played last Thursday and has 10 days of rest while the Chargers are playing on only 6 days of rest.
• The Saints may get star WR Chris Olave back after he missed Week 7 with a concussion.
• Los Angeles is a team that is already run-heavy and is battling several injuries in their receiving corps.

How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

The Saints offensive personnel was slightly above an NFL preseason roster in Week 7 as they took one on the chin from a relatively mediocre Broncos team. Playing on a short week after a wild game against the Bucs, New Orleans did not have much in the tank and were embarrassed by Denver at home by a score of 33-10. The Saints were the talk of the NFL after a dominant opening two weeks into the 2024 season but injuries have ravaged them and they have lost five straight games. Their bye is not until Week 12, so there is no rest for the weary as they travel to the West Coast for a showdown with a stout Chargers defense. Derek Carr seems unlikely to play once again this week, leaving rookie QB Spencer Rattler to run the show, while Alvin Kamara will play through his injuries once again and the Saints should get Chris Olave and Taysom Hill back in their lineup this week. 

The Saints offense had a solid first half showing against the Bucs in Spencer Rattler’s first start but then went a game and a half without a touchdown as they have been outscored 60-10 over the last six quarters. The Chargers defense has been terrific this year and has yet to allow an opponent to score over 20 points in a game. The Chargers have been solid against both the run and the pass this season, but their schedule of opposing offenses has not been great. After the Saints depleted offensive line was manhandled by the Broncos, they look like they may get two starters back this week and face a Chargers team that ranks 31st in QB pressure rate, which will be a nice relief after dealing with the Broncos, who are near the top of the league in blitz rate and pressure rate. 

We should expect a run heavy game plan from the Saints, and with Taysom Hill back practicing in full and Kendre Miller being activated from IR last week, the Saints should be able to get creative with *how* they run the ball. Those elements should help Rattler be more successful and the return of Olave as an “alpha” in their offense will help directly through Olave’s production and indirectly by bumping the rest of the receiving corps into roles more suitable to their skill sets. This game sets up well for the Saints to keep things competitive as their offensive situation will be much better than Week 7 and the Chargers tendency to play in low-scoring games will allow New Orleans to commit to their risk averse and run-heavy approach. We have yet to see a Chargers game this season where 40 total points were scored, and if the Saints can avoid turnovers and negative plays they should be able to stick around deep into the second half.

How los Angeles Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>

• Buffalo has a massive three-game lead in its division while the Seahawks have a narrow lead over multiple contenders.
• The addition of Amari Cooper should expand the Bills’ passing offense after a relatively slow start to the season by their standards.
• Seattle’s running game is positioned to have a good game against Buffalo’s lighter defensive scheme that has allowed several big games to opposing running backs.

How BUFFALO Will Try To Win ::

The Bills have a 5-2 record, with their two losses coming against legitimate AFC contenders in the Texans and Ravens. The Ravens loss was an ugly one in which Buffalo was dominated in basically every phase of the game from start to finish, while the Texans loss was a game where the Bills were dealing with injury issues and Josh Allen had one of the worst performances of his career. Since those losses, the Bills beat the Jets in a thrilling Monday night matchup and then throttled the Titans, 34-10, on a short week. The most notable recent development for Buffalo is last week’s addition of Cooper in a trade with the Browns. While the Bills started the season strong in terms of their record, it was clear that their passing offense was missing a certain element and Cooper appears to fit exactly what they needed. 

In last week’s game against the Titans, Cooper played only 19 snaps but was targeted five times, while rookie WR Keon Coleman had the best game of his career with 125 receiving yards on four receptions and seven targets. Khalil Shakir also returned to his pre-injury role and appears healthy. Going forward, we should expect Cooper to provide a defense-shifting presence on the perimeter that allows many of the Bills’ other players to thrive underneath. Cooper, Coleman, and Shakir will likely evolve into the main Bills wide receivers, with Mack Hollins still seeing a decent snap count but likely not being targeted often and used more as a blocker and to run the “wind sprint” routes on plays where they send someone deep with no intention of throwing it there. The Bills’ tight-end position has been a mix of Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid, but Knox missed practice Wednesday with an ankle injury and his status is now in doubt, which could thrust Kincaid into the full-time role he thrived in down the stretch in 2023. All of a sudden, a chaotic and spread-out Bills receiving corps is much more condensed, talented, and fits their respective roles better. In the backfield, James Cook is still the lead dog, but rookie Ray Davis has emerged as a capable complement and should stay involved going forward. I would expect Cook to get more work in competitive games, with Davis as a change-of-pace guy getting the occasional series or giving Cook a breather when needed, as well as coming in later in games Buffalo is in control of to limit Cook’s touches.

As for how Buffalo will approach this game, the Bills in 2024 have a negative pass rate over expectation (PROE) for the first time in a few years. However, the new look of the Bills’ offense and a capable Seattle team may indicate an upcoming shift in their approach. Seattle’s defense is coming off its best game of the season in a dominant road win over the Falcons, but Josh Allen’s arm and playmaking ability will be a different challenge for Seahawks defensive-minded head coach Mike Macdonald than the static pocket passing of Kirk Cousins. The Seahawks rank second in the league in QB pressure rate despite blitzing on less than a quarter of the dropbacks they face. There is nothing that stands out about the Seahawks’ defense that would lead us to believe they will dictate the Bills to a certain approach based on their scheme or metrics. They are middle of the pack in run defense and pass defense, while playing league-average rates of both man and zone coverage. The Bills have a large home/road split in terms of their scoring, as they average 38.3 points per game at home and only 21 points per game on the road. It is notable, however, that their three home games have been against the Cardinals, Jaguars, and Titans, who all have losing records and two of which rank near the bottom of the league in defensive DVOA. Buffalo will expect to need to score more in this game than in their other road games, however, thanks to the strength of this Seattle offense. As such, we should see a more aggressive Buffalo offense this week than we have seen most of this year and they should have a more vertical element than we saw the first six weeks of the season. Expect Allen and the Bills’ running backs to also be active against a Seattle defense that surrendered big games to the Lions’ and 49ers’ backfields.

How SEATTLE Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>

• Chicago enters this game off its bye and is in the thick of the most competitive division in the NFL, the NFC North.
• The planned matchup between the top two picks from April’s NFL Draft may be in jeopardy due to the rib injury Jayden Daniels is dealing with. Marcus Mariota will start if Daniels is unable to go.
• The Commanders’ defense under Dan Quinn has improved greatly as the season has progressed and is complementing their dynamic offense perfectly as they emerge as an NFC contender.
• Caleb Williams has been playing outstanding football in recent weeks as he and the Bears’ offense have found their rhythm.
• Chicago has an elite pass defense and has been one of the bigger “run funnels” in the NFL this year.

How CHICAGO Will Try To Win ::

The Bears’ offense got off to an abysmal start to 2024 before straightening things out. As such, the overall season numbers for this unit may be a bit misleading, because through three weeks, they were struggling in almost every category. A relaxed schedule has helped, however, as the Bears have averaged 32.0 points per game against the Rams, Panthers, and Jaguars since Week 4. This week, they face a Commanders defense that is in a similar situation, as they started the year off horribly but have rounded into form a bit recently – albeit against weaker competition. This will be a revealing week for both units, as we may be able to tell afterwards which of them was “for real” and which of them was just picking on weak opponents.

Prized free-agent addition RB D’Andre Swift was a laughingstock of the league early in the season as the Bears were completely unable to establish a running game. There was talk of Swift being benched or replaced, but the bigger issue was the run blocking and play calling for Chicago. They had also been missing veteran slot WR Keenan Allen and had been limiting the playing time and usage of tight end Cole Kmet. The Bears have improved their running game the last three weeks and Swift has been on a tear with 120+ yards from scrimmage in three consecutive games, while the return of Allen and increased involvement of Kmet has given the Bears threats in the middle of the field while DJ Moore and Rome Odunze threaten opponents on the perimeter. Honestly, this Bears offense is shaping up exactly as they saw it in the offseason, and now they need to come out of their bye and continue playing at a high level against the current leaders of the NFC East.

Williams has been surgical recently, as he has seven touchdowns passes and only one interception during their recent three-game winning streak despite throwing the ball under 30 times in every game. He has also shown an ability to make plays with his legs, as he has three games with 30+ rushing yards already this year. The balance of Chicago’s weapons makes the Bears more difficult to plan for and slow down, and they are willing to mix it up and punish opponents whenever it makes the most sense. Swift and Moore are the clear “top dogs” in terms of weapons, but Kmet and Allen are coming off two-TD games and Odunze is bound to pop for a big game before long. Washington’s defense has picked on the weak, but the Bears have some explosive players and a balanced lineup that will be tough for the Commanders to slow down. The question on this side of the ball really comes down to the line of scrimmage. Chicago has shown it needs to be able to run the ball to have offensive success, and the Commanders are slightly below average against the run. Also, Williams has been extremely pressure-sensitive as a passer, ranking 28th in PFF passing grade when under pressure. The Commanders blitz at the ninth-highest rate in the league, and whether or not they are able to consistently apply pressure will have a massive impact on how this game plays out.

How WASHINGTON Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Denver enters this game with a 4-3 record and 10 days of rest after their dominant performance against a depleted Saints team. 
• Carolina will have second-year quarterback Bryce Young back under center after Andy Dalton was involved in a car accident this week.
• The Broncos continue to shift their offensive usage week to week as they look for the right combination of young players to ride down the stretch.
• Carolina’s offense was completely lost last week in Washington as the lack of game-changing talent is seemingly catching up with the Panthers.

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

This feels like a bit of a death march for Carolina as they head into the “lion’s den” of Denver and deal with the altitude and what has been an extremely impressive defense. It was safe to assume that Bryce Young would get another chance to start at some point this season, but this would not have been the spot you would want that to happen if you’re trying to help him regain his confidence. Denver’s defense ranks 3rd in the NFL in DVOA and has the leagues 5th highest QB pressure rate. Young’s propensity to take sacks and his struggles within the pocket against pressure does not indicate any likelihood of sustained success through the air in this matchup. The Panthers still do not have WR Adam Thielen back from injured reserve, and Diontae Johnson has come back down to earth after a couple-game stretch of strong performances. Looking back on things, we can see that Johnson’s “big games” occurred against defenses that rank near the bottom of the league in coverage grades (CIN and LVR) and/or are bottom-10 in the league in QB pressure rate (CIN, LVR, and ATL). This week, against a ferocious Broncos pass rush and PFF’s #1 graded coverage, it is unlikely that Johnson will have another game where he can carry the passing game. 

After Johnson, the receiving corps consists primarily of raw and/or replacement-level type players. Rookie WRs Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker, along with rookie TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, are the most involved pass catchers outside of Johnson and comprise the Panthers “11” personnel package while games are competitive. Second-year WR Jonathan Mingo also mixes in, but the main thing to understand is that none of these players are talented or polished enough at this point to count on for much in a tough matchup like this. Throwing Young into this situation is the worst-case scenario for the Panthers, as he is a player who clearly will need a talent advantage around him in order to have success, and this is about as far from that as you will find. Running back Chuba Hubbard continues to lead the backfield with Miles Sanders mixing in, but we shouldn’t expect much from Carolina on the ground this week as the Broncos have a strong run defense and are going to give zero respect to the Panthers passing game.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• The Chiefs carry the league’s best record into Vegas for a matchup with a reeling Raiders team.
• This is a matchup of “buyers” and “sellers,” as Kansas City just acquired WR DeAndre Hopkins via trade a week after the Raiders shipped Davante Adams out of town.
• The Chiefs have built their winning foundation around their defense and simply finding ways to outlast opponents as their offense has taken a big step back from past years.
• Gardner Minshew will return as the starting quarterback for the Raiders after Aidan O’Connell broke his thumb, which will cost him four to six weeks at a minimum.
• Perhaps Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs passing game can get back on track against the Raiders 32nd ranked coverage unit.

How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

The Chiefs continue to mow down their opponents in a methodical fashion, staying undefeated after a surgical victory over the depleted 49ers in San Francisco in Week 7. No matter who is catching the passes from Patrick Mahomes, the offense continues to be “good enough” to win. While Mahomes is not putting up the kind of stats he did early in his career, he is playing very good “winning” football. Many have discussed his interceptions and how he has more of them than touchdown passes this season as a stat that indicates a decline in play. The reality, however, is that many of those mistakes happen at the right time in games and in the right spots on the field to where they don’t hurt the team as much as a 4th quarter interception or one deep in your own territory or in your opponent’s red zone may hurt. This is not all encompassing, but more just a big picture way of saying don’t let the stats fool you as Mahomes is engineering victories for his team in ways that just aren’t as fun for fantasy football players.

The Chiefs pass rate over expectation (PROE) has normalized a bit after starting the year off very low. They are now 7th in the league in PROE and rank 6th in that category over the last four weeks. Their overall pass rate is down due to the fact that they have controlled many of their games, however, and this week sets up as another game where they should not feel the need to press too hard and they can pick their spots. Kansas City traded for former All-Pro WR DeAndre Hopkins and he will be a much needed presence for their receiving corps down the stretch after they lost Hollywood Brown and Rashee Rice for the season and JuJu Smith-Schuster’s hamstring is acting up, which will cost him this week as well. The trade happened on Wednesday so it is hard to say how involved Hopkins will be this week. Odds are he is able to play on a somewhat limited package and may be more involved in high leverage situations like third down and red zone. Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce were the focal points of the Chiefs passing game last week and combined to see 13 of the team’s 25 targets, just over 50%. Tight end Noah Gray was targeted four times and turned those targets into 4 receptions for 66 yards to lead the team, as Kansas City increased their “12” and “13” personnel usage coming out of their Week 6 bye. No other player besides Gray, Kelce, and Worthy saw more than two targets in the contest. Considering the success Gray had and the continued state of the Chiefs receiving corps, it would make sense for Gray to stay involved. If there was ever a week for Worthy to turn his targets into production, this would be it as the Raiders have PFF’s worst graded coverage unit and Worthy’s speed will be difficult for them to keep in front of them all game. Kareem Hunt has assumed control of the backfield and is a capable all-around back. He should have some success on the ground this week as the Raiders 27th-ranked DVOA defense is nothing to write home about.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday Night Football has the Cowboys visiting the 49ers for a 47-point total game with San Francisco favored by 4. These teams are both underachieving, at least compared to preseason expectations, with the 49ers at 3-4 and the Cowboys at 3-3. I would never have bet their combined record to be 6-7 before the season, and I don’t think anybody else would have either, especially when you consider the 49ers have lost to the Rams and Cardinals while Dallas has dropped a game to the Saints. Yeesh. We also have an incredibly busy injury report for San Francisco. I’ll do my best to parse through but if we get any surprises when inactives are released, make sure you’re in the OWS Discord where we’ll talk through how it likely impacts things. 

San Francisco

On the 49ers side, Jordan Mason is the most expensive player in the game (more than CeeDee Lamb!). After starting off the season with a monstrous role, Mason has seen things shrink down a little bit. The snap counts are still strong in the last three weeks (64%, 28% when he missed a bunch of time, then 86% last week) but he’s seen just 14, 9 (again, injured in this one), and 14 carries in those three games. Mason did injure his shoulder in Week 6 against Seattle and perhaps that was still impacting him in Week 7, but he’s completely off the injury report. I’d guess he gets back to a full workload this week with San Francisco already missing two of its starting four pass catchers and the other two both being questionable. A full workload for Mason should look something like Weeks 1-4: 19+ carries, but only 1-2 targets. The Cowboys have struggled against the run all season though it’s been based on volume, not efficiency. They’re exactly in the middle of the pack allowing 4.5 yards per carry but they’re facing the 4th-lowest passing play percentage of any team in the league as their offense has struggled to maintain drives, leading to a 4th-lowest time of possession at 27:39 (lower than the Panthers!). Basically, teams can run reasonably well against Dallas, and because the Cowboys offense has been sputtering, that’s what they’ve done all game long. I wish Mason were a little cheaper because $11k is a really steep price to pay for a 2-down back, but with the 49ers down at least Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings, it’s reasonable to think that this already run-centric team will try to keep the ball on the ground. Watch George Kittle’s status here as Kittle being out would potentially lead San Francisco to be even run heavier but he’s such a key part of their run blocking scheme that it could significantly hurt their efficiency (San Francisco RBs have averaged roughly 1 extra yard per carry when Kittle is on the field). Behind Mason will be Isaac Guerendo, who has had a very small role all season, peaking at 14% of the snaps in games that Mason played from start to finish. Guerendo is priced at $7k as Mason started this week with injuries so he was priced up in case Mason missed, making him unplayable in all but the most highly contrarian scenarios. Fullback Kyle Juszczyk gets a couple of touches per game, and if he finds the end zone could pay off. He’s the kind of play I always want a couple of % but there’s nothing that makes him stand out. 

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The 49ers pass catching corps is where things get especially tricky. Aiyuk and Jennings are out. Deebo Samuel left last week’s game early and went to the hospital with pneumonia. He’s been released and got in limited practices, but oh man, this is hard to guess at. Pneumonia bad enough to require hospitalization can leave you feeling weak for a while, but it’s probably different for a regular person than for a professional athlete (then again, they need to do more physically than we regular folks). I have no idea if he plays and there’s a realistic chance he plays but is less effective than normal. What is clear is that if he plays and has a full role, he’ll be a huge focus of the offense. Deebo has a 38% target share and 4.88 yards per route run without Aiyuk, which are simply insane numbers. This is obviously an extremely small sample size as it’s usually Deebo missing games, but wow. I’d consider him the highest ceiling skill position player in the game, even higher than Lamb, but with a scary-low floor. Kittle’s the guy we tend to think of as a blocker first who also happens to be an elite pass catcher from time to time, and that’s been how he’s played in the past, but this season he has 14.5 or more DK points in five of six games. He’s been more consistently involved in the passing game, whereas previously we’ve seen him just disappear from the passing game for weeks at a time. He’s nursing a foot sprain but got in limited practices on both Thursday and Friday and I’m more confident that he’ll play than I am with Deebo. Especially if you believe Deebo will be limited, Kittle is a very strong play as the last man standing of the original receiving corps who has not been hospitalized recently. It’s easy for me to see a scenario here in which Deebo is active and not a decoy per se but just not 100% and not as heavily used while the offense runs through Kittle and Mason. 

With Aiyuk and Jennings both out, the rest of the wide receiver snaps are most likely to be taken by Chris Conley and Ricky Pearsall (who, of course, is returning from a gunshot of all things . . . what the hell is with the 49ers this season), with Ronnie Bell likely in a rotational WR4-type role and Jacob Cowing perhaps showing up for a couple of snaps here and there. Pearsall is a talented rookie who played 76% of the snaps in his debut and hauled in 3 of 5 targets against the Chiefs elite defense – not a bad start to a career. He’ll almost certainly be on the field for the bulk of the snaps, and at $5,800 he’s a very interesting tournament play on a team that could be rather desperate for people to throw the ball to. Conley is a depth piece for the 49ers – he’s played the 4th-most snaps of any wide receiver but has 1 catch on 5 targets on the season. He’s a punt play, as are Bell and Cowing. If Deebo and Kittle are in, I have little interest in the Conley/Bell/Cowing group, but if one of them misses, it elevates Conley and Bell because San Francisco will just run out of bodies and someone has to get targets – neither is especially talented but they would both just be too cheap for the volume we could project them for. 

Dallas

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

One of the most fun weeks of the season so far is coming to an end with the Giants visiting the Steelers. Oh boy. This game has a whopping 36.5 total with Pittsburgh favored by 6. The Steelers, as is the case most years, boast an elite defense (allowing just 14.4 points per game so far, and though they’ve mostly faced below-average offenses, the Giants are, well, a below-average offense). Pittsburgh’s struggle has been on offense, at least until last week when Russell Wilson found the fountain of youth and absolutely eviscerated the New York Jets. The Giants have had a surprisingly capable defense which has kept them in a lot of games (and in particular has been elite at getting to opposing QBs, leading the league with 4.4 sacks per game) but also a subpar offense. Both teams boast good defenses but Pittsburgh’s is better. Both teams have subpar offenses but Pittsburgh’s . . . might be better?  We’ll see if Russ was actually good or just a one-trick pony last week.

Pittsburgh

The Steelers backfield is split between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, with Harris looking like the old version of the Cowboys Ezekiel Elliott a couple of years ago and Warren trying to fill the Tony Pollard role as the change of pace back with explosive per touch upside. Najee is doing a great job of looking like Zeke, running for a below-average 4.1 yards per carry (though frankly not as bad as I thought he would be, and he ran extremely well last week), while Warren is not doing a great job in the “explosive per-touch upside” category with 3.3 yards per carry and only 11 targets in five games. Yikes. Najee is the solid floor, questionable ceiling back – he’s a big home favorite, his workload should be solid, and his goal-line equity is great (23 red zone carries against just 5 for all other RBs combined), but his passing game role is minimal and his odds of hitting 100+ rushing yards are not great. There’s nothing exciting here, but if the game ends up being a low-scoring slog, he could do enough to get there. Warren at $7,200 is a really tough sell for me. He got 15 opportunities last week in a blowout, but generally, he’s been in the 5-9 opportunity range. With no real red zone work and minimal passing game involvement, it’s tough for him to pay off this kind of salary. I’m mostly a pass here at this price. 

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The Pittsburgh passing game is where things are interesting. Justin Fields didn’t do an awful job during his weeks as the Steelers quarterback but he wasn’t exactly awesome through the air. Russ looked awful last year in Denver, and he only completed 55% of his passes last week, but he threw for 2 touchdowns and 264 yards on just 29 dropbacks. I think it’s fair to say that Russ is an upgrade over Fields, which makes the Pittsburgh pass game more interesting than it used to be but I also think it’s fair to say we shouldn’t expect elite performances each week from Russ as that time of his career has passed. The Steelers will run out George Pickens, Van Jefferson, and Calvin Austin as their primary wide receivers with Pat Freiermuth at tight end, and then Scotty Miller, Brandon Johnson, Darnell Washington, and MyCole Pruitt will play more rotational roles. Targets from Russ’s first 29 pass attempts went Pickens 9, Jefferson 3, Austin 4, Freiermuth 3, Washington 4, Warren 3, Harris 1, and I’m missing 1 so some rando guy got one I guess. Whee. Anyhow, that’s an awesome target share for Pickens and a crummy target share for everyone else. Pickens is the clear alpha here and he’d already shown some upside with Fields. I think he’s likely to have a strong second half of the season with Russ in at QB. The matchup isn’t great, but after a 5/111/1 performance against the Jets, it’s hard to be scared off of this spot. He’s the clear top option. Freiermuth is likeliest to be the best second option over time. $6,200 is a little spendy for a guy coming off of three consecutive 3-target games, though. There’s hope for more with the QB change but man, this is expensive. I think he’s kind of an interesting pay-up to be contrarian tournament play, as more volume should pop for him at some point, and we could hypothesize that the Steelers may need more short area receiving work to counteract the Giants pass rush. Everyone else here is a punt play with the way volume has been distributed (both pre-and post-Russ). Jefferson and Austin are the guys on the field the most, so they’re the best punts, but all of these guys are pretty ugly/scary options. I’ll give a slight nod to Austin as I think he has more per-target upside, but they’re both thin. 

The tight-end situation is worth noting as Pruitt’s return knocked a few snaps off for Washington but he still saw 4 targets. I think this is likely fluky that he out-targeted Freiermuth and wouldn’t read much into it, but Russ does have a long history of throwing touchdowns to tight ends, as anyone who played Seahawks Showdowns a few years ago will remember. He’s a punt but closer to Jefferson and Austin than to the Miller // Johnson // Pruitt trio. Those three are all extremely thin “hope for 1 catch and a touchdown” plays. 

New York