Game Overview ::
By MIKE JOHNSON >>
- Buffalo has a massive three-game lead in its division while the Seahawks have a narrow lead over multiple contenders.
- The addition of Amari Cooper should expand the Bills’ passing offense after a relatively slow start to the season by their standards.
- Seattle’s running game is positioned to have a good game against Buffalo’s lighter defensive scheme that has allowed several big games to opposing running backs.
How BUFFALO Will Try To Win ::
The Bills have a 5-2 record, with their two losses coming against legitimate AFC contenders in the Texans and Ravens. The Ravens loss was an ugly one in which Buffalo was dominated in basically every phase of the game from start to finish, while the Texans loss was a game where the Bills were dealing with injury issues and Josh Allen had one of the worst performances of his career. Since those losses, the Bills beat the Jets in a thrilling Monday night matchup and then throttled the Titans, 34-10, on a short week. The most notable recent development for Buffalo is last week’s addition of Cooper in a trade with the Browns. While the Bills started the season strong in terms of their record, it was clear that their passing offense was missing a certain element and Cooper appears to fit exactly what they needed.
In last week’s game against the Titans, Cooper played only 19 snaps but was targeted five times, while rookie WR Keon Coleman had the best game of his career with 125 receiving yards on four receptions and seven targets. Khalil Shakir also returned to his pre-injury role and appears healthy. Going forward, we should expect Cooper to provide a defense-shifting presence on the perimeter that allows many of the Bills’ other players to thrive underneath. Cooper, Coleman, and Shakir will likely evolve into the main Bills wide receivers, with Mack Hollins still seeing a decent snap count but likely not being targeted often and used more as a blocker and to run the “wind sprint” routes on plays where they send someone deep with no intention of throwing it there. The Bills’ tight-end position has been a mix of Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid, but Knox missed practice Wednesday with an ankle injury and his status is now in doubt, which could thrust Kincaid into the full-time role he thrived in down the stretch in 2023. All of a sudden, a chaotic and spread-out Bills receiving corps is much more condensed, talented, and fits their respective roles better. In the backfield, James Cook is still the lead dog, but rookie Ray Davis has emerged as a capable complement and should stay involved going forward. I would expect Cook to get more work in competitive games, with Davis as a change-of-pace guy getting the occasional series or giving Cook a breather when needed, as well as coming in later in games Buffalo is in control of to limit Cook’s touches.
As for how Buffalo will approach this game, the Bills in 2024 have a negative pass rate over expectation (PROE) for the first time in a few years. However, the new look of the Bills’ offense and a capable Seattle team may indicate an upcoming shift in their approach. Seattle’s defense is coming off its best game of the season in a dominant road win over the Falcons, but Josh Allen’s arm and playmaking ability will be a different challenge for Seahawks defensive-minded head coach Mike Macdonald than the static pocket passing of Kirk Cousins. The Seahawks rank second in the league in QB pressure rate despite blitzing on less than a quarter of the dropbacks they face. There is nothing that stands out about the Seahawks’ defense that would lead us to believe they will dictate the Bills to a certain approach based on their scheme or metrics. They are middle of the pack in run defense and pass defense, while playing league-average rates of both man and zone coverage. The Bills have a large home/road split in terms of their scoring, as they average 38.3 points per game at home and only 21 points per game on the road. It is notable, however, that their three home games have been against the Cardinals, Jaguars, and Titans, who all have losing records and two of which rank near the bottom of the league in defensive DVOA. Buffalo will expect to need to score more in this game than in their other road games, however, thanks to the strength of this Seattle offense. As such, we should see a more aggressive Buffalo offense this week than we have seen most of this year and they should have a more vertical element than we saw the first six weeks of the season. Expect Allen and the Bills’ running backs to also be active against a Seattle defense that surrendered big games to the Lions’ and 49ers’ backfields.
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