Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Eagles running back Miles Sanders returned to a limited practice on Wednesday and appears ready to return from a broken hand.
• The only Eagles player that missed practice on Wednesday for anything other than rest was defensive end Josh Sweat, who did so with an undisclosed illness.
• Zero current COVID concerns with the Eagles.
• Leonard Fournette and Giovani Bernard are likely to return from IR after having their 21-day practice window opened early in the week.
• Running back Ronald Jones II, wide receiver Cyril Grayson, and outside linebacker Anthony Nelson failed to practice on Wednesday for the Bucs, the former two of which have been declared as “doubtful” for the Wildcard Round by head coach Bruce Arians.
• Zero current COVID concerns with the Bucs.

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

Back in Week 6, when these two teams last played, the Eagles were refocusing their offense into the most run-heavy unit in the league. Since a week after the last time the Eagles played the Bucs (Week 8 and on), Philadelphia has gone on to lead the league in overall rush rate (59%) by a wide margin (the next-closest team over that timeframe is the Patriots at 52%), with quarterback Jalen Hurts attempting more than 30 passes only once during the second half of the season. Hurts’ standard range of pass attempts was at 23-26 attempts, with a game of 14 attempts and a game of 17 attempts thrown in. The change in identity from the Eagles was one of the sharpest to occur during the season in recent memory. That said, their opponent for the Wildcard Round faces only 21.5 rush attempts per game, ceded the fewest rush yards per game, and ranked fourth in the league in adjusted line yards allowed on defense this season. But, is that the whole story here? Well, the Buccaneers yielded a 15^th-ranked 4.3 yards per carry, allowed 106 receptions to opposing backfields on 131 targets, and allowed a moderate 21.6 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Furthermore, we saw Jalen Hurts’ rushing output fall off a cliff over his final four starts of the regular season, with games of only eight, eight, seven, and two rush attempts. Those games came against division rivals Washington and the Giants, each of whom they played twice over the final six weeks (Hurts missed a game and the Eagles had their bye in Week 14). The last time the Eagles played a top-five rush defense was back in Week 11 against the Saints, a game that saw Hurts run the football a whopping 18 times en route to 69 yards and three rushing scores. Finally, the Bucs allowed 399 yards rushing and three rushing scores to opposing quarterbacks this season, which led to the fifth-most fantasy points allowed on the ground to the position.

All things considered, I would expect the Eagles to approach this game with the ground attack in the forefront of their minds, likely in an attempt to turn this game into a slugfest (reduce the number of possessions and total offensive plays). Lead back Miles Sanders missed Week 18 with a broken bone in his hand, while Boston Scott and Jordan Howard each missed the regular season finale on the COVID list. Both Scott and Howard were activated from the COVID list on Monday, meaning they should be all systems go for the Wildcard Round, while Sanders is tentatively expected to make his return to the lineup as well. The last game where all three were healthy was back in Week 16 against the Giants when the three split snaps almost in thirds (30% for Sanders, 32% for Scott, and 35% for Howard). Considering the fact that Sanders is the least healthy of the bunch, I would expect the snap allocation to look rather similar here, with rookie Kenneth Gainwell’s game-day status likely reliant on the health of Sanders. It is noteworthy that Philadelphia targeted the running back position at an above-average 23% rate this year, and when combined with the fact that Howard is basically a net-zero in the pass game, we should expect a handful of targets to flow through Miles Sanders and Boston Scott. Other than that slight bump to expected floor for those two, this backfield is a messy situation through the lens of DFS. Finally, the rushing upside exhibited by quarterback Jalen Hurts this season should be on full display this week, with the caveat of the assumption of rational coaching in mind.

The Philadelphia pass game has devolved into a low volume, DeVonta-Smith-and Dallas-Goedert-focused offense that is highly reliant on efficiency. Smith has seen between four and seven targets in every game since Week 9, while Goedert typically fluctuated between six and nine targets. Of note, Goedert had three games over the final eight weeks where he saw four targets or below. The secondary options of Quez Watkins, Jalen Reagor, Greg Ward, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, and backup tight end Jack Stoll mixed in with varying snap rates in situational roles over the final half of the season, with each typically only good for a handful of looks in a standard week. The biggest trend amongst these pass-catchers was the shift away from Quez Watkins and Jalen Reagor in primary roles over the final month of play, with the team instead electing for a heavier rotation of constantly-changing personnel packages. JJ Arcega-Whiteside was placed on IR after undergoing finger surgery earlier this week, which should condense the aforementioned rotation slightly.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

Quite a bit has changed for the Buccaneers since the last time these two teams played way back in Week 6, a game the Bucs controlled throughout (led 28-7 in the third quarter). Since then, Tampa Bay has lost Chris Godwin for the year, Antonio Brown to an in-game outburst leading to his release, Cyril Grayson to a hamstring injury, and Ronald Jones II to an ankle injury. Leonard Fournette and Giovani Bernard are expected back from IR in time for the weekend, Mike Evans has been battling through a hamstring injury sustained in Week 14, and Breshad Perriman is battling through a hip injury, leaving the team with depth concerns up and down the offensive side of the ball. Expect playoff Lenny to operate in a borderline workhorse role (at least as much as his hamstring will allow), Mike Evans, Tyler Johnson, and Breshad Perriman to be the primary wide receivers in 11-personnel sets, Rob Gronkowski to serve as an every-down tight end, and Cameron Brate and OJ Howard to mix in for heavy packages. Tampa Bay led the league in overall pass rate over the second half of the season at 65% and led the league in pass rate when playing with a lead (61%) over the same timeframe, giving us a good idea of how they are likeliest to attack here.

Before being placed on IR following Week 15, Leonard Fournette amassed three straight weeks of 80% or more of the offensive snaps played, a stretch that led to 25, 21, and 26 running back opportunities, including 23 total targets (seven, eight, and eight). Assuming his hamstring holds up, we should expect playoff Lenny to see a commanding share of the workload from this backfield. The matchup on the ground yields an above-average 4.47 net-adjusted line yards metric against an Eagles defense allowing 26.3 fantasy points per game, including the third-most targets, to opposing backfields. It remains to be seen how the likely return of Giovani Bernard will influence Fournette’s workload, particularly in obvious passing situations, but I expect Bernard to be highly reliant on both situation and game flow.

The pass game is the clear and obvious sweet spot for this Buccaneers team, sprinting into the postseason having led the league in pass rate over the second half of the regular season. There are some interesting dynamics with this matchup, as the Eagles have forced the shallowest average depth of target this season, have blitzed at the second-lowest frequency, and have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. While we can’t simply expect the Bucs to not target Mike Evans, Tyler Johnson, and Breshad Perriman, the combination of Darius Slay on Evans and a defense built to limit downfield passing plays into a likely increase in pass game volume for Rob Gronkowski, Leonard Fournette, and the secondary tight ends and running backs. We’ll talk about this a bit more in the DFS+ section, but an interesting approach to one of the top offenses in the league is to pair Tom Brady and his heavy inherent volume with Fournette and Gronk.

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Likeliest Game Flow :: 

It is likely we see this game start rather slow as the Eagles look to play keep away with the Bucs. Since we know the Eagles are likely to slow the game down through heavy rush rates and a mobile quarterback, the ultimate flow, pace, and environment come down to how successful they are in this endeavor. As in, we can expect the Bucs to play with pace and increased pass rates regardless of matchup and game flow because they lead the league in overall pass rate, and they check in second in pass rate when playing with a lead over the second half of the season, so the Eagles are likeliest to control the overall environment here. As such, the likeliest scenario leaves us with less plays in the first half than we would otherwise be used to, with the second half where things would open up should it be required from either side. It also deserves mention here that the philosophical offensive shift seen from the Eagles this season does not preclude them from passing heavily should the situation warrant, meaning if they’re trailing into the fourth quarter we’re liable to see an extremely pass-heavy approach.

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN NOTES

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster returned to a limited practice on Thursday and has an outside chance of returning against the Chiefs.
• Running back Najee Harris missed two practices in a row to start the week with an elbow issue but reports out of Pittsburgh are that he is fully expected to play.
• No current COVID issues with the Steelers.
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire was ruled out on Friday afternoon. 
• Tyreek Hill began the week with a full practice and was subsequently downgraded on Thursday to limited but reports are that he’s expected to play along with Darrel Williams. 
• No current COVID issues with the Chiefs.

How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

Pittsburgh continued their high volume, low upside pass offense throughout the second half of the season. Ben Roethlisberger had the shortest time to throw of any qualified quarterback this season by a wide margin, meaning the Steelers utilized quick aerial strikes as a means of hiding a poor pass-blocking offensive line and diminished arm strength of their starting quarterback. I would expect more of the same against a Chiefs defense designed to take away the deep areas of the field. With that understanding, we also need to consider the fact that the Chiefs struggled with yards after catch allowed for the majority of the season, finishing the year with the third-most allowed in the league. Also, the Chiefs finished towards the bottom of the league in most rush efficiency metrics allowed, but it’s really a net-zero considering the inabilities of the Steelers offensive line. Overall, expect the same high pass rates primarily to the short areas of the field from the Steelers this week.

Najee Harris led the league in offensive snaps played amongst all running backs this season and there is no reason (outside of his injured elbow) to expect anything to change in the postseason. Harris failed to practice on Wednesday or Thursday this week but head coach Mike Tomlin stated he will be on the field come Sunday, but it is something to monitor nonetheless. For some perspective, Harris failed to crack 20 running back opportunities only six times all season, which is an incredible rate of opportunity. That said, he also cracked 100 yards rushing only three times all season and will likely need a trip to the paint to matter on this slate. The pure rushing matchup yields a below-average 4.25 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Kansas City defense that has played better against the run to end the season.

Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool are the only pass-catchers on this offense to see near every-down usage, with Ray-Ray McCloud, Pat Freiermuth, and Zach Gentry filling in for “tick under elite” snap rates in situational roles, on an offense that has transitioned to heavy 12-personnel alignments as the season has progressed. Diontae saw double-digit targets in all but four healthy games this year and should be relied on heavily as a chain-mover this weekend. Chase Claypool has seen his role change numerous times this season, particularly with respect to his route tree, and the best way to describe his role over the final month of the season is “a mixture between a prototypical X and Z receiver,” meaning his primary role is a perimeter possession-style wideout but he mixes in some deeper, low probability routes. Freiermuth is primarily a threat in the red zone, seeing sparse usage between the twenties. Ray-Ray McCloud has seen his role grow out of necessity due to the injuries and COVID issues amongst the pass-catchers, which could be put in question this week with the possible return of JuJu Smith-Schuster to the starting lineup. Whoever takes hold of that slot receiver role will be highly intriguing this week considering the matchup and recent usage (McCloud has seen 27 targets over the previous three weeks).

How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

Kansas City ranked in the top ten in overall pass rate and pass rate with a lead over the final half of the season at 59% and 57%, respectively. While those rates are down compared to the first half of the season, the glaring takeaway is that their situational play-calling doesn’t change much depending on game flow. As in, their overall pass rates are down due to their surging defense, but the Chiefs are going to stick to their game plan regardless of the outcome on the scoreboard. The other notable trend is their first and second down pass rate, which has been towards the top of the league for each of the past three seasons. This serves two purposes. Firstly, it creates more second-and-third-and-short situations. Secondly, it keeps opposing offenses on their heels. Both of these have led to the Chiefs once again ranking as the league’s most efficient offense this season. Against a Steelers team that has no true strength on defense other than their elite pass rush, we should expect this Chiefs offense to attack in any way they choose.

There are a number of moving pieces and uncertain situations regarding the Chiefs backfield this week, as both Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams started the week with limited showings (update: CEH has been ruled out). Williams maintained that level of involvement on Thursday while CEH was downgraded to DNP, which could be due to a number of reasons ranging from maintenance to an aggravation of his shoulder injury. Of note, CEH wasn’t spotted at the portion of practice open to the media on Friday, indicating a potential questionable-at-best situation for Sunday. Should CEH play, we should expect him to split the load with Williams, but should CEH miss, we’re likeliest to see Williams take a stranglehold on the backfield opportunities for the Chiefs. Williams would be one of the top plays on the slate at any position should CEH miss. Behind those two, expect Jerick McKinnon and Derrick Gore to fill situational roles. The pure rushing matchup yields an above-average 4.445 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Steelers team that has been gashed by opposing backfields over the second half of the season (26.7 fantasy points per game allowed to opposing backfields over the full season, which ranked seventh-worst in the league).

The uncertainty continues with the pass game options for the Chiefs, as Tyreek Hill was downgraded from full participant on Wednesday to limited on Thursday, and Travis Kelce has been nursing injuries for the past month. I would tentatively expect both to be full-go this weekend, with the outside chance at Byron Pringle being more involved should the game be in hand early. Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill make up such a large portion of this pass offense on a standard week and should be treated as such. Behind those two, Byron Pringle, Mecole Hardman, and Josh Gordon fill situational roles. The only other consideration of note is the elite pass rush of the Pittsburgh defense, which has been highly successful at generating organic pressure this season without the need for high blitz rates (middle of the pack 24.9% blitz rate this season), which could theoretically affect the number of downfield looks the Chiefs are able to take on second and third down. Overall, expect the Chiefs to largely have their way in any way they choose to attack.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

It is likeliest we see this game play out like many of Pittsburgh’s other games this season, with an early emphasis on the run and short passing games followed by their opponent taking control of the game, forcing the Steelers away from the run game and towards a low upside, short-area passing game. This game brings the lowest game total on the slate, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t plays that won’t be of fantasy utility to us this weekend. While we can’t be certain how the Chiefs will approach a game that they are highly likely to control from start to finish, their historical trends this season indicate a heavy emphasis on the passing game, regardless of game flow. That said, this is the playoffs, and the Chiefs have multiple offensive pieces nursing injuries after a grueling season, so there is a distinct possibility we see an increased emphasis on the ground game should they jump out to an early lead (likely). Look for the Steelers to maintain their short-area passing game as they try and claw their way back into this one.

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN NOTES

DFS+ Interpretation sunday slate ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

The highest-total game of the weekend comes on Monday night as the Cards visit the Rams for a 50.5 total match with Los Angeles favored by four. This should be a good one, as the Rams elite pass defense is somewhat weakened by missing both of their starting safeties, helping boost the odds of a more back-and-forth shootout. I’m excited about this one.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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Los Angeles

We’ll start with the Rams rushing game, where we have Cam Akers making a surprising return from a preseason injury that was expected to keep him out until next year. Akers played 20% of the snaps last week, carried the ball five times, and caught all three of his targets. Of course, that also means Sony Michel played 80% of the snaps and saw 21 carries and four targets of his own. So, what will it be in this one? I don’t have a really good handle on it, to be honest…Akers looked healthy, and before the season it looked like he was going to be a bellcow back for Los Angeles, but will they put him in that role after one game and eight touches? I’m not sure. I do think it’s highly likely that Michel stays involved in some capacity, but Akers’ workload should increase to some degree from last week. Is it enough to make him a viable play? I think so, but just recognize there’s a lot of risk here. Neither Akers nor Michel are priced like bellcow backs, so I’m okay playing them together in flex spots, but if using one of them at captain (and thus needing a disproportionate amount of scoring to go through that guy) I would exclude the other. The matchup here isn’t great, and this is something I’m personally wrestling with a bit: both teams are strong against both the run and the pass per DVOA, but the Cardinals have been getting hammered in the air in their past few games, while the Rams are without both starting safeties, which makes the passing games look like the path of least resistance. 

In the passing game, I have written up Rams Showdowns so many times now that there is really nothing left to write about Cooper Kupp. He’s been elite this year, his usage is absolutely ridiculous, he’s basically a lock for double-digit targets and he’s more likely than not to hit the 100 yard bonus. He’s also priced at a whopping $13,000 and, despite that, is still going to be one of the highest-owned plays on the slate (if not THE highest). Recognize as well that as we get into the playoffs, teams are less likely to use their ancillary plays – most teams focus on their core guys in the playoffs, which makes value options fairly thin. Kupp is a fantastic play if you can find a way to fit him that you don’t hate. Behind Kupp, Odell Beckham has clearly passed Van Jefferson for the WR2 role, outtargeting, outcatching, and out-touchdowning (new DFS vocabulary!) Jefferson since joining the team. On a point-per-dollar basis, Beckham is my favorite Rams receiver, as $6,800 is too cheap for the WR2 in the Rams high-octane passing attack (imagine if Robert Woods was $6,800 here!). Jefferson‘s a reasonable value option, but at just about the same price, I prefer Tyler Higbee who has seen his receiving role grow as the season has come to a close with 6, 6, 9, and 8 targets in his last four games, finally erupting for a big game last week. I don’t want to chase last week’s performance, but the underlying usage for Higbee has been solid all year as he’s averaging a red zone target per game to go along with a healthy (for a tight end) 15% overall target share, about the same as Jefferson. It’s a narrow edge between them, but I will want a little bit more Higbee exposure than Jefferson. Ben Skowronek will play a handful of snaps and you can always bet on a fluky touchdown to get a low-owned value play, but again, in the playoffs, we can expect teams to lean on their main guys so it’s a thin MME option. The matchup here looks tough at first glance against a Cardinals defense that is 6th in pass defense DVOA, but when we look a bit deeper, we see that they’ve been struggling of late…while they have yet to give up a 300-yard passer on the season, they’ve given up 14 passing touchdowns against just 1 interception in the past five games. The matchup isn’t a cakewalk, but it isn’t quite as rough as DVOA makes it look, either.

Arizona

On the Cardinals side, the backfield has a significant lack of clarity as Chase Edmonds has no injury designation but both James Conner and backup Jonathan Ward are questionable. If Conner misses, we can expect to see Edmonds in a full-on bellcow role: Edmonds saw 34 carries and 15 (!) targets in the last two games without Conner. At just $5,000, even in a tough matchup, Edmonds just isn’t priced for that kind of workload and represents a massive value. Neither Ward nor RB4 Eno Benjamin played much in those games, giving us confidence that if Conner is out, Edmonds should be The Guy. If Conner plays, we should expect a split similar to what we’ve seen earlier in the season, with Edmonds as the “lead back” and outsnapping Conner, but likely only getting to the 8-12 carry range and making the rest up with volume while Conner gets some 2-down and goal-line work. At $9,400, Conner is massively overpriced for a shared role with Edmonds and can only be considered as a highly contrarian option (tough on a slate without a lot of value), while Edmonds would still be a reasonable option for his passing-game role, especially in rosters built around the Rams winning the game. 

In the passing game, since DeAndre Hopkins went down we’ve seen Antoine Wesley step into a nearly full-time role replacing him, with Christian Kirk and A.J. Green as the full-time perimeter receivers. Rondale Moore looks like he’s going to return as well and should resume his role of around 30-40% of the snaps with a handful of schemed touches near the line of scrimmage. Kirk and Green are in very similar roles overall, with Kirk seeing slightly more targets and yards while Green has 14 red zone targets against Kirk’s 8 (though Kirk leads him in touchdowns, interestingly). Kirk is my preferred play as I’ll always bet on the younger, more talented receiver, but Green at a discount is plenty viable as well. The matchup is tough (as it is across the board for both offenses), but the lack of safeties and the Rams decision not to use Jalen Ramsay in shadow assignments both boosts the matchup a bit and means we don’t have to shy away from the alpha WR1 (Kirk). Moore is a bit of a trick player who has upside with the ball in his hands but generally has to make it all happen himself, as his touches happen right around the line of scrimmage…against a disciplined Rams defense, the chances of a broken play from scrimmage are pretty low, and at $4,600 I do not have much interest (he’s priced near the kickers, but I would prefer either kicker to him…in tournament terms, I generally aim to have about 15% or so of each kicker, so I’ll want to be under that on Moore). Wesley, however, is very interesting to me. He’s played 85%, 77%, 57%, and 75% of the snaps in the four games since Hopkins went down, seeing no fewer than four targets per game and catching three touchdowns. At just $1,800, he’s the clear best value play on the slate, as everyone priced around him is really in “MME dart throw” territory while Wesley is on the field for the majority of the snaps. I would want a lot of him, but just be aware that in these playoff Showdown slates that generally don’t have a lot of good value options, he’s going to be pretty popular. Alright, at tight end we have old man Zach Ertz. Ertz no longer has much yardage upside, as despite enormous volume he has yet to break 100 yards on the season, but in the four games since Hopkins was hurt he has seen 11, 13, 9, and 10 targets, leading all Cardinals pass-catchers. While he doesn’t have much “break away for a long touchdown” upside, he can get there on volume, and the volume is bankable. Ertz is also third on the team in red zone targets despite only having been with the team for 10 games. If you want more MME punt plays, you can take a shot at Demetrius Harris, who is back to health and should take back his TE2 role from Darrell Daniels. This role has only resulted in six targets on the season, so you’re drawing thin here. 

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Outlook

Ok, that’s a lot of pass-catchers, and there’s a whole chunk of them priced pretty similarly in the $4,600 (Moore) to $7,000 (Kirk) range, so it might be helpful if I ranked them. My overall favorite is Kirk, then Ertz, then Beckham, then Higbee, then Green, then Jefferson, then Moore. Whew. 

The way this game is likeliest to play out is a back-and-forth, relatively high-scoring affair as the Vegas total implies. Both teams are more likely to have success through the air than on the ground, so the “right” way to approach this slate is to focus on the passing games more than the run games (though Edmonds is basically a receiver – especially if Conner misses). But these are two strong defenses as well, so a high-scoring game is not a guarantee. Let’s look at some other ways we could build for this one:

• These teams see each other a lot, which is generally viewed as an advantage to the defenses. Both teams possess strong defenses (advantage here to the Rams, plus they’re at home), so betting on one team failing to show up and score is entirely viable. While the Rams have the advantage on defense, Kyler’s dual-threat ability also makes him harder to stop, and while Matt Stafford posted a career-high in passing touchdowns this season, he’s also thrown a whopping eight interceptions in his last four games and hasn’t had a real ceiling game of 30+ DK points since all the way back in Week 7. 
• When the field wants to bet on the scoring coming one way, we can bet on it coming a different way. I expect the field will be heavy on the passing games here (especially if James Conner is active), so we can be contrarian by betting that the scoring comes on the ground.
• 4-2 underdog builds have long been a positive leverage spot in Showdowns, and they seem especially fitting here with Cooper Kupp as such a vacuum for the Rams offense. Kupp, one other Ram, and then four Cardinals would be betting that the Rams offense is highly concentrated while the Cardinals scoring is more spread out…which is exactly how these teams tend to play anyway. This is really a perfect slate for 4-2 underdog builds.

CASH Games

In cash games, my player pool consists of Murray, Kupp, Stafford, Edmonds (who would be an absolute cash game lock if Conner misses but is a fine play either way), the kickers, and then perhaps a mid-range receiver like Kirk or Ertz if I land there to finish it up.

Tournaments

In tournaments, I want to be overweight on Kirk, Beckham, Ertz, Higbee, and Edmonds (if no Conner) at captain. 

Some groups to consider:

• At most 1 kicker
• At most 1 defense
• Pair captain pass catchers with their QBs (or consider boosting the QB if using a captain receiver if you don’t want 100% exposure to this pairing – discussed in further detail in the 2020 update to my Advanced Showdowns course)
• If using an RB captain, apply a negative correlation to the opposing defense and kicker (you can see how to do so in my FantasyLabs tutorial video)
• Pair captain Kyler with at least 1 pass catcher and captain Stafford with at least 2 pass catchers (full disclosure that I would not be using Stafford at captain at all in this one)
• If using captain Michel or Akers, exclude the other one
• At most 2 of Stafford, Michel, and Akers unless building 5-1 Rams onslaughts
• At most 1 of Conner and Edmonds