Wild Card Matchups

Kickoff Saturday, Jan 15th 4:30pm Eastern

Raiders (
21.5) at

Bengals (

Over/Under 49.5


Key Matchups
Raiders Run D
17th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O
22nd DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D
8th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
Bengals Pass O
14th DVOA/26th Yards per pass
Bengals Run D
28th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O
24th DVOA/29th Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D
21st DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
Raiders Pass O
28th DVOA/24th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

These teams previously met in Week 11 in Las Vegas, with the Bengals winning 32-13.Cincinnati has a logistical advantage due to travel and scheduling issues.Both teams enter the playoffs hot. The only loss between them over the past four weeks was Cincinnati losing to Cleveland in a game in which they rested most of their key players.These teams are moving in opposite directions in terms of their play calling tendencies.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

The Raiders have had a surreal season, culminating in the final game of . . .

Unlock OWS

Tools || Training || Research || Strategy || Slate Prep


Click To Enter

Kickoff Saturday, Jan 15th 8:15pm Eastern

Patriots (
19.5) at

Bills (

Over/Under 43.5


Key Matchups
Patriots Run D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
5th DVOA/9th Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
13th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
3rd DVOA/7th Yards per pass
Bills Run D
18th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
23rd DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
9th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
29th DVOA/28th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

This is the third matchup between these teams, as they split the regular season series 1-1.Josh Allen has had struggles throwing the ball in cold weather this season and there is a frigid forecast for Saturday.Buffalo has moved to a condensed backfield over the last portion of the season, while their passing game can be very spread out.There are clear areas to attack for both teams, but both teams will be ready for them due to their familiarity with each other.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

New England . . .

Unlock OWS

Tools || Training || Research || Strategy || Slate Prep


Click To Enter

Kickoff Sunday, Jan 16th 1:00pm Eastern

Eagles (
20.0) at

Bucs (

Over/Under 49.0


Key Matchups
Eagles Run D
19th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O
29th DVOA/32nd Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
28th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per pass
Buccaneers Pass O
15th DVOA/6th Yards per pass
Buccaneers Run D
11th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
6th DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D
15th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
7th DVOA/11th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Eagles running back Miles Sanders returned to a limited practice on Wednesday and appears ready to return from a broken hand.
  • The only Eagles player that missed practice on Wednesday for anything other than rest was defensive end Josh Sweat, who did so with an undisclosed illness.
  • Zero current COVID concerns with the Eagles.
  • Leonard Fournette and Giovani Bernard are likely to return from IR after having their 21-day practice window opened early in the week.
  • Running back Ronald Jones II, wide receiver Cyril Grayson, and outside linebacker Anthony Nelson failed to practice on Wednesday for the Bucs, the former two of which have been declared as “doubtful” for the Wildcard Round by head coach Bruce Arians.
  • Zero current COVID concerns with the Bucs.

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

Back in Week 6, when these two teams last played, the Eagles were refocusing their offense into the most run-heavy unit in the league. Since a week after the last time the Eagles played the Bucs (Week 8 and on), Philadelphia has gone on to lead the league in overall rush rate (59%) by a wide margin (the next-closest team over that timeframe is the Patriots at 52%), with quarterback Jalen Hurts attempting more than 30 passes only once during the second half of the season. Hurts’ standard range of pass attempts was at 23-26 attempts, with a game of 14 attempts and a game of 17 attempts thrown in. The change in identity from the Eagles was one of the sharpest to occur during the season in recent memory. That said, their opponent for the Wildcard Round faces only 21.5 rush attempts per game, ceded the fewest rush yards per game, and ranked fourth in the league in adjusted line yards allowed on defense this season. But, is that the whole story here? Well, the Buccaneers yielded a 15th-ranked 4.3 yards per carry, allowed 106 receptions to opposing backfields on 131 targets, and allowed a moderate 21.6 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Furthermore, we saw Jalen Hurts’ rushing output fall off a cliff over his final four starts of the regular season, with games of only eight, eight, seven, and two rush attempts. Those games came against division rivals Washington and the Giants, each of whom they played twice over the final six weeks (Hurts missed a game and the Eagles had their bye in Week 14). The last time the Eagles played a top-five rush defense was back in Week 11 against the Saints, a game that saw Hurts run the football a whopping 18 times en route to 69 yards and three rushing scores. Finally, the Bucs allowed 399 yards rushing and three rushing scores to opposing quarterbacks this season, which led to the fifth-most fantasy points allowed on the ground to the position.

All things considered, I would expect the Eagles to approach this game with the ground attack in the forefront of their minds, likely in an attempt to turn this game into a slugfest (reduce the number of possessions and total offensive plays). Lead back Miles Sanders missed Week 18 with a broken bone in his hand, while Boston Scott and Jordan Howard each missed the regular season finale on the COVID list. Both Scott and Howard were activated from the COVID list on Monday, meaning they should be all systems go for the Wildcard Round, while Sanders is tentatively expected to make his return to the lineup as well. The last game where all three were healthy was back in Week 16 against the Giants when the three split snaps almost in thirds (30% for Sanders, 32% for Scott, and 35% for Howard). Considering the fact that Sanders is the least healthy of the bunch, I would expect the snap allocation to look rather similar here, with rookie Kenneth Gainwell’s game-day status likely reliant on the health of Sanders. It is noteworthy that Philadelphia targeted the running back position at an above-average 23% rate this year, and when combined with the fact that Howard is basically a net-zero in the pass game, we should expect a handful of targets to flow through Miles Sanders and Boston Scott. Other than that slight bump to expected floor for those two, this backfield is a messy situation through the lens of DFS. Finally, the rushing upside exhibited by quarterback Jalen Hurts this season should be on full display this week, with the caveat of the assumption of rational coaching in mind.

The Philadelphia pass game has devolved into a low volume, DeVonta-Smith-and Dallas-Goedert-focused offense that is highly reliant on efficiency. Smith has seen between four and seven targets in every game since Week 9, while Goedert typically fluctuated between six and nine targets. Of note, Goedert had three games over the final eight weeks where he saw four targets or below. The secondary options of Quez Watkins, Jalen Reagor, Greg Ward, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, and backup tight end Jack Stoll mixed in with varying snap rates in situational roles over the final half of the season, with each typically only good for a handful of looks in a standard week. The biggest trend amongst these pass-catchers was the shift away from Quez Watkins and Jalen Reagor in primary roles over the final month of play, with the team instead electing for a heavier rotation of constantly-changing personnel packages. JJ Arcega-Whiteside was placed on IR after undergoing finger surgery earlier this week, which should condense the aforementioned rotation slightly.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

Quite a bit has changed for the Buccaneers since the last time these two teams played way back in Week 6, a game the Bucs controlled throughout (led 28-7 in the third quarter). Since then, Tampa Bay has lost Chris Godwin for the year, Antonio Brown to an in-game outburst leading to his release, Cyril Grayson to a hamstring injury, and Ronald Jones II to an ankle injury. Leonard Fournette and Giovani Bernard are expected back from IR in time for the weekend, Mike Evans has been battling through a hamstring injury sustained in Week 14, and Breshad Perriman is battling through a hip injury, leaving the team with depth concerns up and down the offensive side of the ball. Expect playoff Lenny to operate in a borderline workhorse role (at least as much as his hamstring will allow), Mike Evans, Tyler Johnson, and Breshad Perriman to be the primary wide receivers in 11-personnel sets, Rob Gronkowski to serve as an every-down tight end, and Cameron Brate and OJ Howard to mix in for heavy packages. Tampa Bay led the league in overall pass rate over the second half of the season at 65% and led the league in pass rate when playing with a lead (61%) over the same timeframe, giving us a good idea of how they are likeliest to attack here.

Before being placed on IR following Week 15, Leonard Fournette amassed three straight weeks of 80% or more of the offensive snaps played, a stretch that led to 25, 21, and 26 running back opportunities, including 23 total targets (seven, eight, and eight). Assuming his hamstring holds up, we should expect playoff Lenny to see a commanding share of the workload from this backfield. The matchup on the ground yields an above-average 4.47 net-adjusted line yards metric against an Eagles defense allowing 26.3 fantasy points per game, including the third-most targets, to opposing backfields. It remains to be seen how the likely return of Giovani Bernard will influence Fournette’s workload, particularly in obvious passing situations, but I expect Bernard to be highly reliant on both situation and game flow.

The pass game is the clear and obvious sweet spot for this Buccaneers team, sprinting into the postseason having led the league in pass rate over the second half of the regular season. There are some interesting dynamics with this matchup, as the Eagles have forced the shallowest average depth of target this season, have blitzed at the second-lowest frequency, and have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. While we can’t simply expect the Bucs to not target Mike Evans, Tyler Johnson, and Breshad Perriman, the combination of Darius Slay on Evans and a defense built to limit downfield passing plays into a likely increase in pass game volume for Rob Gronkowski, Leonard Fournette, and the secondary tight ends and running backs. We’ll talk about this a bit more in the DFS+ section, but an interesting approach to one of the top offenses in the league is to pair Tom Brady and his heavy inherent volume with Fournette and Gronk.

OWS For Life!

Memberships remaining :: 39*

* morning, 1/15/22

What Is This? Click To Understand

1. You buy OWS For Life.
2. We cancel your OWS Annual or Inner Circle membership (if applicable)
3. You never pay a dollar for OWS NFL content again

Current price of OWS Annual for new members: $129
Current price of Inner Circle for new members: $179
Current (limited) price of OWS For Life: $399


Likeliest Game Flow :: 

It is likely we see this game start rather slow as the Eagles look to play keep away with the Bucs. Since we know the Eagles are likely to slow the game down through heavy rush rates and a mobile quarterback, the ultimate flow, pace, and environment come down to how successful they are in this endeavor. As in, we can expect the Bucs to play with pace and increased pass rates regardless of matchup and game flow because they lead the league in overall pass rate, and they check in second in pass rate when playing with a lead over the second half of the season, so the Eagles are likeliest to control the overall environment here. As such, the likeliest scenario leaves us with less plays in the first half than we would otherwise be used to, with the second half where things would open up should it be required from either side. It also deserves mention here that the philosophical offensive shift seen from the Eagles this season does not preclude them from passing heavily should the situation warrant, meaning if they’re trailing into the fourth quarter we’re liable to see an extremely pass-heavy approach.


By LexMiraglia10 >>

Tom Brady:

  • PHI finished 25th in def pass DVOA
  • Brady vs teams 25th or lower: 410:3:1 (NYJ) // 276:5, 368:4:1 (ATL) // 220:2:2 (WAS) // 297:2:1 (PHI)
  • PHI allowed just five QBs all year to throw for 260+ yds (Mahomes, Brady, Carr, Herbert, Dak); Dak’s came against a lot of backups
  • Brady has passed for 250+ yds in 12/17 games (9/17 over 300yds)
  • Brady has scored multiple TDs in 13/17 games
  • Since losing Godwin, Brady has gone: 232:1 // 410:3:1 // 326:3
  • Brady in Wildcard last decade: 381:2 (WAS) // 209:0:1 (TEN) // 154:2:3 (BAL)


  • PHI allowed the 2nd fewest WR DK pts/g (29.2) and 3rd fewest WR rec yds/g (130.7)
  • WRs with 20+ DK pts vs PHI: Hill (186:3) // Brown (93:1) // Allen (104) // Moore (77:1) // Wilson (119:2)
  • TB WRs since losing Godwin: Evans (–, 47:1, 89:2) // Brown (101, 26, –) // Johnson (0, 50, 22) // Grayson (81, 81:1, –) // Perriman (–, 41, 44)
  • TB WRs vs PHI: Evans (2:27) // Godwin (5:43) // Brown (9:93:1)
  • Evans had 0 rec vs Slay in 2017, and just 2:25 in the game
  • Evans finished with 2:27 in W6 vs PHI, with all 3 of his targets coming against Slay
  • Godwin (5) & Brown (13) combined for 18 tg in that game (no Gronk), but will not be playing this time around

Rob Gronkowski:

  • Gronk’s full games: 8:90:2 // 4:39:2 // 4:55 // 6:71 // 7:123 // 4:58:2 // 5:62 // 2:29 // 1:23 // 7:115 // 7:137
  • Gronk has just two games below 8 tg all season (5, 2), (8, 8, 8, 10, 8, 9, 11, 10, 10)
  • In Gronk’s absence, Howard (7) & Brate (4) saw 11 targets vs PHI in W6
  • Stats in game: Howard (6:49:1) // Brate (3:26)
  • Notable TEs vs PHI: Pitts (4:31) // Kittle (4:17) // Schultz (6:80:2) // Kelce (4:23) // Howard (6:49:1) // Moreau (6:60:1) // Hock (10:89) // LAC (11:126:2) // DEN (8:136) // Trautman (5:58:1) // Schultz (3:21:2)
  • PHI allowed the 6th highest success rate to TEs
  • PHI allowed the 2nd most TE DK pts/g (17.4) behind the most TE TDs allowed (14)

Leonard Fournette:

  • 19 RBs have 40+ rush yds vs PHI, 9 RBs have 60+ rush yds
  • PHI allowed the 7th most RB rush TDs (14)
  • RBs with 15+ touches vs PHI (total yds:TDs): Davis (72) // Mitchell (53) // Zeke (116:2) // CEH (114:1) // Chuba (134) // Fournette (127:2) // Drake (79:1) // Swift (51) // Ekeler (82) // Ingram (113) // Saquon (53) // Coleman (77) // Gibson (65:1) // Saquon (28) // Patterson (98:1) // Zeke (90)
  • Fournette had 15+ touches in 12/14 games
  • Fournette had 6 games of 60+ rush yds (5 of 80+)
  • PHI allowed the 3rd most RB rec and 8th most RB rec yds
  • Fournette had 3+ rec in 13/14 games, 5+ rec in 7/14 games
  • Fournette had 40+ rec yds in 6 games
  • Fournette’s 2nd highest DK score of season came vs PHI (22:81:2, 6:46)
  • Gio’s return could take some pass game work if TB finds themselves trailing more in this game, but Fournette still primarily dominated touches before Gio got hurt
  • Fournette’s playoff career (touches:yds:TDs)::
  • 2017 (JAC): 26:76 // 29:119:3 // 27:89:1
  • 2020 (TB): 23:132:1 // 23:107:1 // 19:74:1 // 20:135:1

Jalen Hurts:

  • In the first seven weeks, Hurts had between 22-32 DK pts in every game
  • In the last eight weeks, Hurts had 20+ DK pts just twice (30.8, 29.6)
  • Hurts threw 34+ att five times to start (35, 39, 48, 37, 34 / 23, 26)
  • Hurts pass att since: 14, 17, 23, 24, 31, 26, 29, 26
  • TB faces the most pass att/g (only team of 40+)
  • Hurts vs TB in W6: 12/26 for 115:1:1, 10:44:2
  • Hurts has multiple TDs in 10/15 games
  • TB has allowed 2+ TDs to 9 QBs; 3+ TDs to 5 QBs
  • Hurts has just one game below 30 rush yds
  • Hurts has seven games above 60 rush yds
  • QB rushing vs TB: Dak (13) // Hurts (44:2) // Fields (38) // Winston (40) // Heinicke (15) // Dimes (10) // Wentz (21) // Allen (109:1) // Taysom (33) // Cam (42)
  • TB has the 2nd highest rate of pressure and the highest blitz rate per PFR
  • Hurts has as many TDs vs the blitz and non-blitz despite less than half as many blitzed dropbacks
  • PFF graded PHI’s pass blocking in the top 5 for 2021


  • TB allowed 15 WRs of 60+ yds; 5 WRs of 100+ yds
  • TB allowed the 4th most WR rec and the 11th most WR yds on the 3rd most WR tg
  • Since Hurts started throwing less in W8, Smith has just two games of 70+ yds (his only two games with 5 rec in span)
  • Smith targets through Week 7: 8 // 7 // 6 // 10 // 9
  • Smith targets since Week 7: 3 // 6 // 6 // 6 // 4 // 4 // 5 // 7 // 6 // 4
  • Smith has 15+ DK pts in 6 g: 19.1 // 22.2 // 15.7 // 25.6 // 22.6 // 19.0 (5 TDs in those games)
  • Smith’s other 11 g: 3.6 // 5.8 // 5.1 // 11.1 // 2.5 // 10.1 // 4.2 // 3.5 // 7 // 8.4 // 7.1
  • Smith vs TB: 2:31
  • Quez Watkins has just 2 games of 10+ DK pts all year: 2:117 vs SF (91-yd catch) in W2 and 5:84:1 vs DAL (Minshew start) in W17
  • PHI WR tg: Smith (104) // Quez (62) // Reagor (57)

Dallas Goedert:

  • Yards without Ertz: 70 // 72 // 43 // 28 // 62 // 0 // 102:2 // 135 // 28 // 71
  • With Goedert out, Ertz went for 4:29:1 vs TB in his last game as an Eagle
  • TB allowed 14.2 & 14.0 DK pts/g to TEs in Bowles first two TB seasons
  • TB allowed 12.6 DK pts/g to TEs in 2021
  • TEs with 40+ yds vs TB: Schultz (45) // Pitts (73, 48) // Higbee (40:1) // Gesicki (43) // Kmet (43) // Doyle (81:1) // Knox (60:1)
  • Other TEs to score vs TB: Henry, Jonnu, Ertz


  • TB has allowed the fewest RB rush yds in each of the last three seasons under Bowles
  • In 20 games last season, Kamara, CMC, & Cook were the only RBs to break 20 DK pts vs TB, and AK & CMC both needed 2 TDs to get there
  • Gurley & AK were the only two RBs to break 20 DK pts in 2019 vs TB, and they combined for 17 rec in those 2 games
  • TB has allowed four 20+ DK pt scores to RBs in 2021
  • The four RBs: Patterson (7:11:1, 5:58:1) // Gaskin (5:25, 10:74:2) // Herbert (18:100, 5:33) // Gibson (24:64:2, 2:14)
  • TB allowed the 2nd most RB rec in 2021 after allowing the most in 2020 (5th most RB rec yds allowed this year)
  • Sanders had 105 rec yds in first four games; 53 rec yds total in 8 games since
  • Sanders in W6 vs TB: 9:56, 2:10
  • Sanders has no TDs this year
  • Others with TDs: Scott (6) // Gainwell (6) // Howard (3)
  • Sanders is the one who broke the 100-yd streak vs NOR in Hurts first start in 2020, a similarly annually stout run defense

Kickoff Sunday, Jan 16th 4:30pm Eastern

49ers (
23.75) at

Cowboys (

Over/Under 50.5


Key Matchups
49ers Run D
15th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per carry
Cowboys Run O
15th DVOA/19th Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
4th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Cowboys Pass O
11th DVOA/14th Yards per pass
Cowboys Run D
9th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
2nd DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Cowboys Pass D
6th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
1st DVOA/1st Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

Running back Elijah Mitchell and tackle Trent Williams were the only players from the 49ers to not practice on Wednesday for anything other than rest but both are likely to play.The 49ers added three practice squad players to the COVID list on Tuesday but don’t currently have any active roster players on the list which is notable news considering the organization has largely avoided COVID thus far (as in, their players are subject to standard COVID testing rules and are more likely to pop as positives).Dallas enters the post season relatively . . .

Unlock OWS

Tools || Training || Research || Strategy || Slate Prep


Click To Enter

Kickoff Sunday, Jan 16th 8:15pm Eastern

Steelers (
17.0) at

Chiefs (

Over/Under 46.5


Key Matchups
Steelers Run D
13th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O
11th DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Steelers Pass D
7th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Chiefs Pass O
6th DVOA/19th Yards per pass
Chiefs Run D
27th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per carry
Steelers Run O
12th DVOA/17th Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D
5th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Steelers Pass O
19th DVOA/20th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster returned to a limited practice on Thursday and has an outside chance of returning against the Chiefs.
  • Running back Najee Harris missed two practices in a row to start the week with an elbow issue but reports out of Pittsburgh are that he is fully expected to play.
  • No current COVID issues with the Steelers.
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire was ruled out on Friday afternoon. 
  • Tyreek Hill began the week with a full practice and was subsequently downgraded on Thursday to limited but reports are that he’s expected to play along with Darrel Williams. 
  • No current COVID issues with the Chiefs.

How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

Pittsburgh continued their high volume, low upside pass offense throughout the second half of the season. Ben Roethlisberger had the shortest time to throw of any qualified quarterback this season by a wide margin, meaning the Steelers utilized quick aerial strikes as a means of hiding a poor pass-blocking offensive line and diminished arm strength of their starting quarterback. I would expect more of the same against a Chiefs defense designed to take away the deep areas of the field. With that understanding, we also need to consider the fact that the Chiefs struggled with yards after catch allowed for the majority of the season, finishing the year with the third-most allowed in the league. Also, the Chiefs finished towards the bottom of the league in most rush efficiency metrics allowed, but it’s really a net-zero considering the inabilities of the Steelers offensive line. Overall, expect the same high pass rates primarily to the short areas of the field from the Steelers this week.

Najee Harris led the league in offensive snaps played amongst all running backs this season and there is no reason (outside of his injured elbow) to expect anything to change in the postseason. Harris failed to practice on Wednesday or Thursday this week but head coach Mike Tomlin stated he will be on the field come Sunday, but it is something to monitor nonetheless. For some perspective, Harris failed to crack 20 running back opportunities only six times all season, which is an incredible rate of opportunity. That said, he also cracked 100 yards rushing only three times all season and will likely need a trip to the paint to matter on this slate. The pure rushing matchup yields a below-average 4.25 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Kansas City defense that has played better against the run to end the season.

Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool are the only pass-catchers on this offense to see near every-down usage, with Ray-Ray McCloud, Pat Freiermuth, and Zach Gentry filling in for “tick under elite” snap rates in situational roles, on an offense that has transitioned to heavy 12-personnel alignments as the season has progressed. Diontae saw double-digit targets in all but four healthy games this year and should be relied on heavily as a chain-mover this weekend. Chase Claypool has seen his role change numerous times this season, particularly with respect to his route tree, and the best way to describe his role over the final month of the season is “a mixture between a prototypical X and Z receiver,” meaning his primary role is a perimeter possession-style wideout but he mixes in some deeper, low probability routes. Freiermuth is primarily a threat in the red zone, seeing sparse usage between the twenties. Ray-Ray McCloud has seen his role grow out of necessity due to the injuries and COVID issues amongst the pass-catchers, which could be put in question this week with the possible return of JuJu Smith-Schuster to the starting lineup. Whoever takes hold of that slot receiver role will be highly intriguing this week considering the matchup and recent usage (McCloud has seen 27 targets over the previous three weeks).

How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

Kansas City ranked in the top ten in overall pass rate and pass rate with a lead over the final half of the season at 59% and 57%, respectively. While those rates are down compared to the first half of the season, the glaring takeaway is that their situational play-calling doesn’t change much depending on game flow. As in, their overall pass rates are down due to their surging defense, but the Chiefs are going to stick to their game plan regardless of the outcome on the scoreboard. The other notable trend is their first and second down pass rate, which has been towards the top of the league for each of the past three seasons. This serves two purposes. Firstly, it creates more second-and-third-and-short situations. Secondly, it keeps opposing offenses on their heels. Both of these have led to the Chiefs once again ranking as the league’s most efficient offense this season. Against a Steelers team that has no true strength on defense other than their elite pass rush, we should expect this Chiefs offense to attack in any way they choose.

There are a number of moving pieces and uncertain situations regarding the Chiefs backfield this week, as both Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams started the week with limited showings (update: CEH has been ruled out). Williams maintained that level of involvement on Thursday while CEH was downgraded to DNP, which could be due to a number of reasons ranging from maintenance to an aggravation of his shoulder injury. Of note, CEH wasn’t spotted at the portion of practice open to the media on Friday, indicating a potential questionable-at-best situation for Sunday. Should CEH play, we should expect him to split the load with Williams, but should CEH miss, we’re likeliest to see Williams take a stranglehold on the backfield opportunities for the Chiefs. Williams would be one of the top plays on the slate at any position should CEH miss. Behind those two, expect Jerick McKinnon and Derrick Gore to fill situational roles. The pure rushing matchup yields an above-average 4.445 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Steelers team that has been gashed by opposing backfields over the second half of the season (26.7 fantasy points per game allowed to opposing backfields over the full season, which ranked seventh-worst in the league).

The uncertainty continues with the pass game options for the Chiefs, as Tyreek Hill was downgraded from full participant on Wednesday to limited on Thursday, and Travis Kelce has been nursing injuries for the past month. I would tentatively expect both to be full-go this weekend, with the outside chance at Byron Pringle being more involved should the game be in hand early. Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill make up such a large portion of this pass offense on a standard week and should be treated as such. Behind those two, Byron Pringle, Mecole Hardman, and Josh Gordon fill situational roles. The only other consideration of note is the elite pass rush of the Pittsburgh defense, which has been highly successful at generating organic pressure this season without the need for high blitz rates (middle of the pack 24.9% blitz rate this season), which could theoretically affect the number of downfield looks the Chiefs are able to take on second and third down. Overall, expect the Chiefs to largely have their way in any way they choose to attack.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

It is likeliest we see this game play out like many of Pittsburgh’s other games this season, with an early emphasis on the run and short passing games followed by their opponent taking control of the game, forcing the Steelers away from the run game and towards a low upside, short-area passing game. This game brings the lowest game total on the slate, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t plays that won’t be of fantasy utility to us this weekend. While we can’t be certain how the Chiefs will approach a game that they are highly likely to control from start to finish, their historical trends this season indicate a heavy emphasis on the passing game, regardless of game flow. That said, this is the playoffs, and the Chiefs have multiple offensive pieces nursing injuries after a grueling season, so there is a distinct possibility we see an increased emphasis on the ground game should they jump out to an early lead (likely). Look for the Steelers to maintain their short-area passing game as they try and claw their way back into this one.


DFS+ Interpretation sunday slate ::

By Alex88 >>


  • Eight of the Top 10 teams in ATS record made the playoffs (in order of ranking: GB, DAL, NE, TEN, ARI, BUF, CIN, PHI)
  • PIT is one of two playoff teams that ranked in the Bottom 10 in ATS record (LV is the other)
  • Vegas total opened at 48 but has since dropped two points (as of Thursday evening)
  • KC’s implied total of 29.25 is the highest on the week, two full points higher than the second highest (TB)
  • PIT’s implied total of 16.75 is the lowest on the week, two full points lower than the second lowest (PHI)
  • The 12.5 pt spread is the widest, four points wider than the second widest (PHI @ TB)
  • PIT scored fewer than 20 pts in three of their final four regular season games (26 in the fourth)
  • KC scored greater than 30 pts in three of their final four regular season games (28 in the fourth)
  • PIT held their opponents to 14 or fewer pts in three of their last four
  • KC’s opponents scored 24 or more pts in three of their last four
  • In Week 16, PIT lost @ KC 36 to 10
  • In the regular season, KC ranked fourth in ppg (28.2), PIT ranked 21st (20.2)
  • KC ranked eighth in ppg allowed (21.4), PIT ranked 20th (23.4)
  • KC averaged the fifth most offensive plays per game (66.7), PIT averaged the ninth most (65.5)
  • On defense, PIT’s opponents averaged the sixth most offensive plays (65.6), KC’s averaged the 20th most (62.4)
  • Per numberFire, PIT @ KC is the lowest ranked game in terms of average pace (30.2 seconds per play) but the highest ranked game in average pass rate (62.1%)

Ben Roethlisberger

  • Stat line in Week 16’s 10-36 loss @ KC: 23/35:159:1:1
  • His 4.5 YPA was the second lowest on the week
  • On the season, KC allowed 7.0 YPA (seventh most)
  • Four straight weeks scoring fewer than 15 DK pts
  • Scored 4x his DK salary ($5,200) twice this year: 22.92 @ LAC in Week 11 // 28.82 @ MIN in Week 14
  • Both of those games were under domes
  • On the season, KC ranked 30th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (19.96)
  • In their last four games, only Ben was held to fewer than 20 DK pts
  • On the season, his 8.36 pts in Week 16 were only the second instance of KC holding a QB to single digit DK pts

PIT Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Diontae Johnson 84.1% // Chase Claypool 70.2% // Pat Freiermuth 58.2% // Ray-Ray McCloud 45.9% // James Washington 40.9%
  • Target share: Johnson 25.5% // Claypool 15.8% // Freiermuth 11.9% // McCloud 9.9% // Washington 6.6%
  • Johnson’s target counts in the last four games: 5 // 9 (@ KC) // 15 // 10
  • Stat lines: 5:38:0 // 6:51:1 // 8:31:1 // 7:51:0
  • Scored 4x his Week 19 DK salary ($6,700) once in 16 games: 33.5 vs. BAL in Week 13
  • Also scored 20+ DK pts three times
  • Claypool’s target counts in the last four games: 2 // 6 (@ KC) // 9 // 7
  • Stat lines: 0:0:0 // 4:41:0 // 3:17:0 // 5:37:1
  • Scored 4x his Week 19 DK salary ($4,800) once in 16 games: 27 vs. DEN in Week 5
  • Has otherwise not scored 20 DK pts
  • McCloud’s target counts in the last four games: 3 // 8 (@ KC) // 10 // 9
  • Stat lines: 1:0:0 // 4:25:0 // 4:35:0 // 4:37:0
  • Scored 4x his Week 19 DK salary ($3,700) once in 14 games: 15.3 vs. PIT in Week 10
  • Has otherwise not scored double digit DK pts
  • Washington missed Week 18 on the COVID list, but has been activated for this week
  • His target counts in his last four games: 6 // 5 // 2 (@ KC) // 1
  • Stat lines: 4:65:1 // 3:36:0 // 0:0:0 // 0:0:0
  • Scored 4x his Week 19 DK salary ($3,200) once in 11 games: 16.5 @ MIN in Week 14
  • Has otherwise not scored 12+ DK pts
  • KC ranked 23rd in DK ppg allowed to WRs (35.63)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Emmanuel Sanders 20.4 // Devonta Smith 22.2 // Marquise Brown 26.3 // AJ Brown 30.3 // Hunter Renfrow 32.7 // Mike Williams 36.2 // Ja’Marr Chase 58.6
  • Freiermuth missed Week 16 @ KC due to a concussion
  • His target counts in his last four games: 3 // 4 // 6 // 9
  • Stat lines: 2:32:1 // 4:37:0 // 5:22:0 // 6:53:0
  • Scored 4x his Week 19 DK salary ($4,200) once in 16 games: 21.3 vs. CHI in Week 9
  • Scored double digit DK pts an additional seven times
  • KC ranked 17th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (12.34)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Zach Ertz 12 // Ricky Seals-Jones 15.8 // Dallas Goedert 16.6 // Dawson Knox 23.7

Najee Harris

  • Stat line in Week 16 @ KC: 19/93:0 rushing & 5/7:17:0 receiving
  • Led all NFL RBs in snap share (83.5%) and target share (14.2%)
  • 22.4 touches per game ranked second behind Derrick Henry’s 29.6 (who hasn’t played since Week 8)
  • Despite facing the sixth fewest rushing attempts per game, KC allows the 12th most yards (117.6) and second most YPA (4.8)
  • Scored 4x his Week 19 DK salary ($6,600) twice in 17 games: 31.2 vs. KC in Week 3 // 32.6 vs. CLE in Week 17
  • Scored 20+ DK pts eight times
  • KC ranked 20th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (23.99)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Melvin Gordon 20.6 // Kenneth Gainwell 20.9 // Austin Ekeler 22.7 // Nick Chubb 23.1 // Javonte Williams 32.8

Patrick Mahomes

  • Stat line in Week 16’s 36-10 win vs. PIT: 23/30:258:3:0
  • 8.6 YPA ranked sixth highest on the week
  • Four straight weeks of 20+ DK ppg, averaging 23.16 on the season
  • Scored 4x his Week 19 DK salary ($7,400) four times in 17 games: 32.72 @ PHI in Week 4 // 34.6 @ LAC in Week 15 // 36.28 vs. CLE in Week 1 // 39.24 @ LV in Week 10
  • On the season, PIT ranked 10th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (16.63)
  • Notable opposing QB scores: Patrick Mahomes 22.32 // Aaron Rodgers 24.12 // Derek Carr 27.18 // Justin Herbert 38.28

KC Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Travis Kelce 77.5% // Tyreek Hill 72.6% // Demarcus Robinson 58.2% // Mecole Hardman 52.1% // Byron Pringle 49%
  • Target share: Hill 23.6% // Kelce 19.9% // Hardman 12.3% // Pringle 8.9% // Robinson 6.1%
  • Hill’s target counts in his last four games: 13 // 2 (vs. PIT) // 10 // 3
  • Stat lines: 12:148:1 // 2:19:0 // 6:40:0 // 1:2:0
  • Hill was said to be exhausted from his bout with COVID during Week 16’s 36-10 victory over PIT
  • He dinged up a lingering heel injury in warmups prior to Week 18
  • Hill was a full participant on Wednesday of this week, but limited on Thursday
  • Scored 4x his Week 19 DK salary ($7,100) three times in 17 games: 35.8 @ LAC in Week 15 // 40.1 vs. CLE in Week 1 // 50.6 @ PHI in Week 4
  • Hardman’s target counts in his last four games: 4 // 5 (vs. PIT) // 1 // 11
  • Stat lines: 2:11:0 // 3:31:1 // 1:53:0 // 8:103:0
  • His 103 yards in Week 18 were a career high
  • Scored 4x his Week 19 DK salary ($4,100) twice in 17 games: 16.6 vs. BUF in Week 5 // 22.3 @ DEN in Week 18
  • Hardman has otherwise not scored 15 pts
  • Pringle’s target counts in his last four games: 4 // 7 (vs. PIT) // 4 // 8
  • Stat lines: 3:22:0 // 6:75:2 // 3:35:0 // 5:56:0
  • Scored 4x his Week 19 DK salary ($3,900) once in 16 games: 25.5 vs. PIT in Week 16
  • Pringle has otherwise not scored 15 pts
  • Robinson’s target counts in his last four games: 3 // 2 (vs. PIT) // 2 // 6
  • Stat lines: 0:0:0 // 2:15:0 // 2:33:1 // 3:19:0
  • Scored 4x his Week 19 DK salary ($3,300) twice in 13 games: 13.6 @ BAL in Week 2 // 13.6 @ WAS in Week 6
  • Week 17’s 11.3 DK pts was Robinson’s only other double digit game
  • PIT ranked 10th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (33.18)
  • Just 10 opposing WRs have scored 20+ DK pts vs. PIT
  • None have hit 30 DK pts
  • Kelce missed Week 16’s 36-10 victory vs. PIT due to COVID
  • Target counts in his last four games: 4 // 13 // 7 // 5
  • Stat lines: 3:27:0 // 10:191:2 // 5:25:1 // 4:34:1
  • Scored 4x his Week 19 DK salary ($6,700) twice in 16 games: 26.9 @ BAL in Week 2 // 44.1 @ LAC in Week 15
  • PIT ranked 10th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (10.89)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Foster Moreau 11.4 // Darren Waller 11.5 // David Njoku 12.8 // Cole Kmet 14.7 // Mark Andrews 16.5


  • Snap share: Darrel Williams 47.5% // CEH 41.8%
  • Target share: Williams 8.4% // CEH 3.4%
  • Touches per game: CEH 13.8 // Williams 11.2
  • CEH left Week 16’s 36-10 victory vs. PIT in the third quarter, with a 9/27:1 stat line
  • Touch log from last four healthy games: 14 // 17 // 13 // 11
  • Stat lines (rushing & receiving): 12/63:1 & 2/2:13:0 // 14/54:0 & 3/3:28 // 10/37:2 & 3/3:5 // 9/32:0 & 2/4:18:0
  • Scored 4x his Week 19 DK salary ($5,600) once in 10 games: 22.4 @ PHI in Week 4
  • CEH has yet to play since his Week 16 injury
  • He practiced on Wednesday this week, but was downgraded to DNP on Thursday
  • In Week 16’s 36-10 victory vs. PIT, during which CEH left early, Williams finished with a 11/55:0 stat line
  • Touch log from last four games: 5 // 14 (vs. PIT) // 17 // 10
  • Stat lines: 5/12:0 & 0/1:0 // 11/55:0 & 3/3:30:0 // 14/88:2 & 3/3:19:0 // 7/17:0 & 3/4:30:0
  • Scored 4x his Week 19 DK salary ($5,500) three times in 17 games: 23.9 @ WAS in Week 6 // 25.7 @ CIN in Week 17 // 32.4 @ LV in Week 10
  • Williams has been limited in practice due to a toe injury but is expected to be ready
  • PIT ranked 26th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (25.61)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Devonta Freeman 20.7 // Latavius Murray 24 // Joe Mixon 35.3 // Dalvin Cook 38.2 // Austin Ekeler 41.5

Kickoff Monday, Jan 17th 8:15pm Eastern

Cards (
23.25) at

Rams (

Over/Under 50.5


Key Matchups
Cardinals Run D
31st DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carry
Rams Run O
7th DVOA/8th Yards per carry
Cardinals Pass D
31st DVOA/21st Yards allowed per pass
Rams Pass O
10th DVOA/3rd Yards per pass
Rams Run D
20th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per carry
Cardinals Run O
8th DVOA/2nd Yards per carry
Rams Pass D
22nd DVOA/27th Yards allowed per pass
Cardinals Pass O
25th DVOA/29th Yards per pass


The highest-total game of the weekend comes on Monday night as the Cards visit the Rams for a 50.5 total match with Los Angeles favored by four. This should be a good one, as the Rams elite pass defense is somewhat weakened by missing both of their starting safeties, helping boost the odds of a more back-and-forth shootout. I’m excited about this one.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

Los Angeles

We’ll start with the Rams rushing game, where we have Cam Akers making a surprising return from a preseason injury that was expected to keep him out until next year. Akers played 20% of the snaps last week, carried the ball five times, and caught all three of his targets. Of course, that also means Sony Michel played 80% of the snaps and saw 21 carries and four targets of his own. So, what will it be in this one? I don’t have a really good handle on it, to be honest…Akers looked healthy, and before the season it looked like he was going to be a bellcow back for Los Angeles, but will they put him in that role after one game and eight touches? I’m not sure. I do think it’s highly likely that Michel stays involved in some capacity, but Akers’ workload should increase to some degree from last week. Is it enough to make him a viable play? I think so, but just recognize there’s a lot of risk here. Neither Akers nor Michel are priced like bellcow backs, so I’m okay playing them together in flex spots, but if using one of them at captain (and thus needing a disproportionate amount of scoring to go through that guy) I would exclude the other. The matchup here isn’t great, and this is something I’m personally wrestling with a bit: both teams are strong against both the run and the pass per DVOA, but the Cardinals have been getting hammered in the air in their past few games, while the Rams are without both starting safeties, which makes the passing games look like the path of least resistance. 

In the passing game, I have written up Rams Showdowns so many times now that there is really nothing left to write about Cooper Kupp. He’s been elite this year, his usage is absolutely ridiculous, he’s basically a lock for double-digit targets and he’s more likely than not to hit the 100 yard bonus. He’s also priced at a whopping $13,000 and, despite that, is still going to be one of the highest-owned plays on the slate (if not THE highest). Recognize as well that as we get into the playoffs, teams are less likely to use their ancillary plays – most teams focus on their core guys in the playoffs, which makes value options fairly thin. Kupp is a fantastic play if you can find a way to fit him that you don’t hate. Behind Kupp, Odell Beckham has clearly passed Van Jefferson for the WR2 role, outtargeting, outcatching, and out-touchdowning (new DFS vocabulary!) Jefferson since joining the team. On a point-per-dollar basis, Beckham is my favorite Rams receiver, as $6,800 is too cheap for the WR2 in the Rams high-octane passing attack (imagine if Robert Woods was $6,800 here!). Jefferson‘s a reasonable value option, but at just about the same price, I prefer Tyler Higbee who has seen his receiving role grow as the season has come to a close with 6, 6, 9, and 8 targets in his last four games, finally erupting for a big game last week. I don’t want to chase last week’s performance, but the underlying usage for Higbee has been solid all year as he’s averaging a red zone target per game to go along with a healthy (for a tight end) 15% overall target share, about the same as Jefferson. It’s a narrow edge between them, but I will want a little bit more Higbee exposure than Jefferson. Ben Skowronek will play a handful of snaps and you can always bet on a fluky touchdown to get a low-owned value play, but again, in the playoffs, we can expect teams to lean on their main guys so it’s a thin MME option. The matchup here looks tough at first glance against a Cardinals defense that is 6th in pass defense DVOA, but when we look a bit deeper, we see that they’ve been struggling of late…while they have yet to give up a 300-yard passer on the season, they’ve given up 14 passing touchdowns against just 1 interception in the past five games. The matchup isn’t a cakewalk, but it isn’t quite as rough as DVOA makes it look, either.


On the Cardinals side, the backfield has a significant lack of clarity as Chase Edmonds has no injury designation but both James Conner and backup Jonathan Ward are questionable. If Conner misses, we can expect to see Edmonds in a full-on bellcow role: Edmonds saw 34 carries and 15 (!) targets in the last two games without Conner. At just $5,000, even in a tough matchup, Edmonds just isn’t priced for that kind of workload and represents a massive value. Neither Ward nor RB4 Eno Benjamin played much in those games, giving us confidence that if Conner is out, Edmonds should be The Guy. If Conner plays, we should expect a split similar to what we’ve seen earlier in the season, with Edmonds as the “lead back” and outsnapping Conner, but likely only getting to the 8-12 carry range and making the rest up with volume while Conner gets some 2-down and goal-line work. At $9,400, Conner is massively overpriced for a shared role with Edmonds and can only be considered as a highly contrarian option (tough on a slate without a lot of value), while Edmonds would still be a reasonable option for his passing-game role, especially in rosters built around the Rams winning the game. 

In the passing game, since DeAndre Hopkins went down we’ve seen Antoine Wesley step into a nearly full-time role replacing him, with Christian Kirk and A.J. Green as the full-time perimeter receivers. Rondale Moore looks like he’s going to return as well and should resume his role of around 30-40% of the snaps with a handful of schemed touches near the line of scrimmage. Kirk and Green are in very similar roles overall, with Kirk seeing slightly more targets and yards while Green has 14 red zone targets against Kirk’s 8 (though Kirk leads him in touchdowns, interestingly). Kirk is my preferred play as I’ll always bet on the younger, more talented receiver, but Green at a discount is plenty viable as well. The matchup is tough (as it is across the board for both offenses), but the lack of safeties and the Rams decision not to use Jalen Ramsay in shadow assignments both boosts the matchup a bit and means we don’t have to shy away from the alpha WR1 (Kirk). Moore is a bit of a trick player who has upside with the ball in his hands but generally has to make it all happen himself, as his touches happen right around the line of scrimmage…against a disciplined Rams defense, the chances of a broken play from scrimmage are pretty low, and at $4,600 I do not have much interest (he’s priced near the kickers, but I would prefer either kicker to him…in tournament terms, I generally aim to have about 15% or so of each kicker, so I’ll want to be under that on Moore). Wesley, however, is very interesting to me. He’s played 85%, 77%, 57%, and 75% of the snaps in the four games since Hopkins went down, seeing no fewer than four targets per game and catching three touchdowns. At just $1,800, he’s the clear best value play on the slate, as everyone priced around him is really in “MME dart throw” territory while Wesley is on the field for the majority of the snaps. I would want a lot of him, but just be aware that in these playoff Showdown slates that generally don’t have a lot of good value options, he’s going to be pretty popular. Alright, at tight end we have old man Zach Ertz. Ertz no longer has much yardage upside, as despite enormous volume he has yet to break 100 yards on the season, but in the four games since Hopkins was hurt he has seen 11, 13, 9, and 10 targets, leading all Cardinals pass-catchers. While he doesn’t have much “break away for a long touchdown” upside, he can get there on volume, and the volume is bankable. Ertz is also third on the team in red zone targets despite only having been with the team for 10 games. If you want more MME punt plays, you can take a shot at Demetrius Harris, who is back to health and should take back his TE2 role from Darrell Daniels. This role has only resulted in six targets on the season, so you’re drawing thin here. 

OWS For Life!

Memberships remaining :: 34*

* morning, 1/17/22

What Is This? Click To Understand

1. You buy OWS For Life.
2. We cancel your OWS Annual or Inner Circle membership (if applicable)
3. You never pay a dollar for OWS NFL content again

Current price of OWS Annual for new members: $129
Current price of Inner Circle for new members: $179
Current (limited) price of OWS For Life: $399



Ok, that’s a lot of pass-catchers, and there’s a whole chunk of them priced pretty similarly in the $4,600 (Moore) to $7,000 (Kirk) range, so it might be helpful if I ranked them. My overall favorite is Kirk, then Ertz, then Beckham, then Higbee, then Green, then Jefferson, then Moore. Whew. 

The way this game is likeliest to play out is a back-and-forth, relatively high-scoring affair as the Vegas total implies. Both teams are more likely to have success through the air than on the ground, so the “right” way to approach this slate is to focus on the passing games more than the run games (though Edmonds is basically a receiver – especially if Conner misses). But these are two strong defenses as well, so a high-scoring game is not a guarantee. Let’s look at some other ways we could build for this one:

  • These teams see each other a lot, which is generally viewed as an advantage to the defenses. Both teams possess strong defenses (advantage here to the Rams, plus they’re at home), so betting on one team failing to show up and score is entirely viable. While the Rams have the advantage on defense, Kyler’s dual-threat ability also makes him harder to stop, and while Matt Stafford posted a career-high in passing touchdowns this season, he’s also thrown a whopping eight interceptions in his last four games and hasn’t had a real ceiling game of 30+ DK points since all the way back in Week 7. 
  • When the field wants to bet on the scoring coming one way, we can bet on it coming a different way. I expect the field will be heavy on the passing games here (especially if James Conner is active), so we can be contrarian by betting that the scoring comes on the ground.
  • 4-2 underdog builds have long been a positive leverage spot in Showdowns, and they seem especially fitting here with Cooper Kupp as such a vacuum for the Rams offense. Kupp, one other Ram, and then four Cardinals would be betting that the Rams offense is highly concentrated while the Cardinals scoring is more spread out…which is exactly how these teams tend to play anyway. This is really a perfect slate for 4-2 underdog builds.
CASH Games

In cash games, my player pool consists of Murray, Kupp, Stafford, Edmonds (who would be an absolute cash game lock if Conner misses but is a fine play either way), the kickers, and then perhaps a mid-range receiver like Kirk or Ertz if I land there to finish it up.


In tournaments, I want to be overweight on Kirk, Beckham, Ertz, Higbee, and Edmonds (if no Conner) at captain. 

Some groups to consider:
  • At most 1 kicker
  • At most 1 defense
  • Pair captain pass catchers with their QBs (or consider boosting the QB if using a captain receiver if you don’t want 100% exposure to this pairing – discussed in further detail in the 2020 update to my Advanced Showdowns course)
  • If using an RB captain, apply a negative correlation to the opposing defense and kicker (you can see how to do so in my FantasyLabs tutorial video)
  • Pair captain Kyler with at least 1 pass catcher and captain Stafford with at least 2 pass catchers (full disclosure that I would not be using Stafford at captain at all in this one)
  • If using captain Michel or Akers, exclude the other one
  • At most 2 of Stafford, Michel, and Akers unless building 5-1 Rams onslaughts
  • At most 1 of Conner and Edmonds

By Alex88 >>


  • Vegas total opened at 50.5 but has since dropped one point (as of Thursday night)
  • ARI’s points scored in the last four games: 12 // 16 // 25 // 30
  • Their opponents’: 30 // 22 // 22 // 38
  • LAR’s points scored in the last four games: 20 // 30 // 20 // 24
  • Their opponents’: 10 // 23 // 19 // 27
  • On the season, ARI averaged the 11th most ppg (26.4)
  • LAR averaged the seventh most (27.1)
  • ARI’s defense allowed the ninth fewest ppg (21.5)
  • LAR’s defense allowed the 16th fewest (21.9)
  • ARI averaged the eighth most plays per game on offense (66.2), LAR averaged the 18th most (62.2)
  • ARI’s opponents averaged the fourth fewest plays per game on offense (60.5), LAR’s opponents averaged the fifth most (65.8)
  • Per numberFire, ARI @ LA is the fourth ranked Week 19 match in average pace (29.4 seconds per play) and the second ranked in average pass rate (61.9%)

Kyler Murray

  • Career stat lines vs. LAR (passing & rushing): 19/34:163:0:1 & 4/28:1 // 26/42:325:2:2 & 2/0:0 // 21/39:173:3:1 & 5/15:0 // 8/11:87:0 & 2/3:0 // 24/32:268:2:0 & 6/39:0 // 32/49:383:0:2 & 7/61:0
  • Career highs in completion% (69.2%), passing yards (270.5), and TD% (5%)
  • 30.2 rushing yards per game is a career low
  • Scored 25+ DK pts four times in 14 games: 25.76 @ CLE in Week 6 // 30.82 @ CHI in Week 13 // 34.56 @ TEN in Week 1 // 38.1 vs. MIN in Week 2
  • On the season, LAR ranks seventh in DK ppg allowed to QBs (16.29)
  • They rank 17th in successful play rate of passing plays allowed (per Sharp Football)
  • Notable opposing QB scores: Kirk Cousins 20.3 // Kyler Murray 22.42 // Murray 22.62 // Davis Mills 24.4 // Aaron Rodgers 29.28 // Tom Brady 31.68

ARI Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Christian Kirk 76.2% // AJ Green 75.7% // Zach Ertz 74.3% // Antoine Wesley 39.2 // Rondale Moore 36.9%
  • Target share: Ertz 19% // Kirk 17.4% // AJG 15.6% // Moore 11% // Wesley 5.4%
  • DeAndre Hopkins has not played since Week 14 (missing the last four games) and will not be activated this week
  • Kirk’s target counts in the last four games: 12 // 9 // 9 // 3
  • Stat lines: 9:94:1 // 7:55:0 // 6:79:0 // 2:43:0
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts three times in 17 games: 24 @ TEN in Week 1 // 24.4 @ DET in Week 15 // 20.4 @ JAX in Week 3
  • He has three other 15+ pt performances
  • Kirk’s career stat lines vs. LAR: 4/5:27:0 // 3/7:23:0 // 7/10:60:0 // 1/3:2:0 // 1/1:5:0 // 3/6:86:0
  • AJG’s target counts in the last four games: 8 // 3 // 6 // 9
  • Stat lines: 4:64:0 // 1:33:0 // 3:74:0 // 4:23:0
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts once in 16 games: 20.2 vs. LAR in Week 14
  • AJG’s scored 15+ DK pts three other times
  • Moore hasn’t played since Week 15, but he did get in a limited practice on Thursday
  • He’s scored 15+ DK pts twice in 14 games: 16.1 @ SEA in Week 11 // 27.4 vs. MIN in Week 2
  • Moore’s scored double digits just four times in total this year
  • Wesley’s target counts in the last four games: 8 // 4 // 5 // 4
  • Stat lines: 3:19:0 // 2:29:1 // 4:30:2 // 2:17:0
  • He’s scored double digit DK pts twice: 10.9 vs. IND in Week 16 // 19 @ DAL in Week 17
  • LAR ranked 28th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (38.2)
  • There have been 11 instances of a 20+ DK pt performance by 10 different WRs vs. LAR (Deebo Samuel having scored the most and second most points against them)
  • Ertz’s target counts in the last four games: 11 // 13 // 9 // 10
  • Stat lines: 6:74:0 // 8:54:0 // 7:41:0 // 7:84:0
  • He’s scored 12+ DK pts five times in 11 games as a Cardinal: 13.4 @ DET in Week 15 // 13.4 vs. IND in Week 16 // 15.4 vs. SEA in Week 18 // 16 vs. HOU in Week 7 // 28.8 @ SEA in Week 11
  • LAR ranked 15th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (12.16)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Geoff Swaim 12.9 // Jack Doyle 13.4 // Mark Andrews 14.9 // George Kittle 16 // Maxx Williams 17.6


  • Snap share: Chase Edmonds 52.6% // James Conner 51%
  • Target share: Edmonds 9% // Conner 6.6%
  • Touches per game: Conner 15.9 // Edmonds 13.2
  • Conner missed Weeks 16 & 17, during which Edmonds saw 24 & 23 touches
  • Stat lines for Edmonds in those games (rushing & receiving): 16/56:1:0 & 8/9:71 // 18/53:0 & 5/6:29:0
  • Edmonds missed Week 18, during which Conner saw 21 touches
  • Conner’s Week 18 stat line: 15/52:1 & 6/6:41:1
  • Conner has scored 20+ DK pts five times in 15 games: 20.6 @ LAR in Week 4 // 20.9 @ SEA in Week 11 // 27.3 vs. SEA in Week 18 // 33.5 vs. LAR in Week 14 // 40.3 @ SF in Week 9
  • He did not practice on Thursday and will be a game-time decision Monday night
  • Edmonds has scored 20+ DK pts twice in 12 games: 20.9 @ LAR in Week 4 // 26.7 vs. IND in Week 16
  • He was limited in practice on Thursday but said he would be active on Monday night
  • LAR ranked 10th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (21.43)
  • They rank 21st in successful play rate of running plays allowed (per Sharp Football)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: AJ Dillon 20 // Giovani Bernard 20.1 // James Conner 20.6 // Chase Edmonds 20.9 // David Montgomery 21.8 // D’Andre Swift 28.4 // James Conner 33.5

Matthew Stafford

  • Stat lines this season vs. ARI: 26/41:280:2:1 // 23/30:287:3:0
  • Career high in TD% (6.8)
  • Tied career high in completion% (67.2%)
  • Lowest sack% since 2013 (4.8%)
  • Highest INT% since rookie year (2.8%)
  • Scored 20+ DK pts in 11 out of 17 games, including two 30+ pt performances
  • Only one single digit output (9.68 @ MIN in Week 16)
  • Dealing with a toe injury but practicing in full
  • ARI ranked 13th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (17.14)
  • ARI’s defense ranked ninth in pressure%
  • They rank 20th in successful play rate of passing plays allowed
  • Notable opposing QB scores: Matthew Stafford 20.3 // Jared Goff 20.64 // Jimmy G 23.34 // Stafford 23.48 // Dak Prescott 24.04 // Kirk Cousins 25.26 // Russell Wilson 26.02

LAR Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Cooper Kupp 94% // Tyler Higbee 81.1% // Van Jefferson 80.3% // OBJ 61.1% // Ben Skowronek 16.3%
  • Target share: Kupp 31.5% // Jefferson 14.7% // Higbee 14% // OBJ 13.5% // Skowronek 3.3%
  • Kupp’s career stat lines vs. ARI: 4/10:51:1 // 5/6:68:0 // 6/6:63:0 // 6/6:65:1 // 7/10:99:1 // 8/9:73:0 // 5/13:64:0 // 13/15:123:1
  • Kupp’s season low in DK pts came in Week 4 vs. ARI (11.4 DK pts)
  • Back-to-back seven target games heading into the playoffs, his lowest on the season
  • Scored 30+ DK pts in six games, 20-30 pts in an additional eight games
  • Jefferson’s target counts in the last four games: 2 // 6 // 5 // 3
  • Stat lines: 2:23:0 // 1:6:0 // 4:63:0 // 2:31:0
  • Hasn’t scored 15+ DK pts since Week 13
  • Season high 21 DK pts vs. ARI in Week 4
  • OBJ’s target counts in the last four games: 3 // 8 // 7 // 5
  • Stat lines: 1:7:0 // 4:37:1 // 5:39:1 // 2:18:0
  • Stat lines vs. ARI this season: 5/8:79:0 in Week 6 (as a Brown) // 6/7:77:1 in Week 14
  • Week 14 marked his season high in DK pts (19.7)
  • Skowronek’s target counts in the last four games: 5 // 0 (only played four snaps) // 2 // 2
  • Stat lines: 4:42:0 // 0:0:0 // 2:18:0 // 0:0:0
  • Yet to score double digit DK pts
  • ARI ranked 29th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (38.22)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: KJ Osborn 20.1 // Van Jefferson 21 // Amon-Ra St. Brown 23.5 // Tyler Lockett 27 // Donovan Peoples-Jones 29.1 // Cooper Kupp 34.3
  • Higbee missed Weeks 14 & 15 due to COVID issues
  • His target counts in his last four active games: 6 // 6 // 9 // 8
  • Stat lines: 5:48:0 // 5:41:0 // 6:69:0 // 6:55:2
  • Career stat lines as a starter vs. ARI: 3/3:13:0 // 1/1:6:0 // 1/2:3:1 // 1/1:16:0 // 7/8:107:1 // 8/12:84:1 // 4/6:24:1 // 3/4:41:0 // 4/6:36:0
  • Higbee’s scored double digit DK pts six times in 15 games: 10.1 vs. TEN in Week 9 // 11 @ SF in Week 10 // 11.8 vs. CHI in Week 1 // 12.9 @ BAL in Week 17 // 15 vs. TB in Week 3 // 23.5 vs. SF in Week 18
  • ARI ranked second in DK ppg allowed to TEs (7.83)
  • Only two opposing TEs have scored double digit DK pts vs. ARI: Dalton Schultz 11.4 // George Kittle 24.1


  • Cam Akers returned from an achilles injury in Week 18
  • Sony Michel led in snaps (52-13), targets (4-3), and touches (22-8)
  • Michel’s touch counts in the last four weeks: 20 // 28 // 22 // 22
  • Stat lines (rushing & receiving): 18/92:0 & 2/2:23 // 27/131:1 & 1/4:4:0 // 19/74:1 & 3/5:25:0 // 21/43:0 & 1/4:6:0
  • Michel’s stat line @ ARI in Week 14: 20/79:0 & 0/1:0
  • Michel has scored 15+ DK pts three times in 16 games: 18.9 @ BAL in Week 17 // 23.5 @ MIN in Week 16 // 24.9 vs. JAX in Week 13
  • Akers ran three times for five yards in Week 18
  • His stat lines in two games vs. ARI last season: 21/72:1 & 1/1:22:0 in Week 13 // 21/34:0 & 4/4:52:0 in Week 17
  • Scored 15+ DK pts four times during his rookie year: 16.4 @ ARI in Week 13 // 18.6 @ GB in Divisional Round // 24.4 vs. NE in Week 14 // 28.6 @ SEA in Wild Card Round
  • ARI ranked ninth in DK ppg allowed to RBs (21.42)
  • They rank 13th in successful play rate of running plays allowed
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Aaron Jones 24 // James Robinson 25.4 // CMC 26.1 // Rashaad Penny 28 // David Montgomery 28.1