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00:00 :: Giants // WFT
08:28 :: Bears // Titans
20:30 :: Lions // Vikings
33:17 :: Panthers // Chiefs
44:38 :: Texans // Jaguars
58:36 :: Ravens // Colts
65:45 :: Seahawks // Bills
78:17 :: Broncos // Falcons
89:40 :: Raiders // Chargers
99:46 :: Dolphins // Cards
112:58 :: Steelers // Cowboys
With JM, Scott Barrett, and Graham Barfield
XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
Week 9 starts with the Packers visiting the 49ers in a 50.5 total game with Green Bay favored by 5. Both teams have some major injury (or illness) situations to evaluate, so this is going to be a weird one.
The Packers’ AJ Dillon tested positive for Covid, and Jamaal Williams was also ruled out due to close exposure. Aaron Jones is officially questionable but the Tuesday report said the Packers are pessimistic about him playing. Green Bay’s medical staff is notoriously conservative with injuries, so in all likelihood, Jones is out, which . . .
Game Overview ::
By Hilow >>
Rivera and the Football Team will try to win this game; Joe Judge and Jason Garrett will try not to loseVery clear avenues for both teams to lean pass-heavy here, with almost three minutes of lost possession time between the twoLowest game total on the slate, and for good reason
How New York Will Try To Win ::
Jason Garrett is best compared to Mike McCarthy (the irony there is too much, Cowboys fans), as he relies on the skill of his players instead of maximizing the skill of his players. What I mean . . .
Game Overview ::
By Hilow >>
Pivotal matchup between Chicago’s top-ranked red zone defense and Tennessee’s second-ranked red zone offense (red zone touchdown rates)The likeliest game flow hinges entirely on said matchupOverall, not a ton to love from this game, with a couple maybe plays depending on game flow
How Chicago Will Try To Win ::
As we know by now, Chicago would like to play at a slow pace (30th-ranked situation-neutral pace of play at 31.85 seconds per play), take a few deep shots per game to rookie Darnell Mooney (finally connected . . .
Game Overview ::
By JM >>
The Vikings want to win on the ground; though we could still have some passing in this one if Stafford plays and the Lions are able to keep this game closeThe Lions will be trying to keep this game close without the help of Golladay, making volume worth exploringThe Vikings have consistently produced elite DFS scores this yearPlenty to unpack in this one
How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::
We’re basically dealing with two completely different potential games here:
Stafford without Golladay (in which case, the Lions should be able to manufacture enough . . .
The Panthers are expected to get Christian McCaffrey back this week…and while there is the question of “how many snaps will he be able to play?”…and while there is also the fact that the Panthers have said Mike Davis has earned a role…well, I guess I’ll put it like this:
Xandamere often mentions that he doesn’t worry too much about cornerback matchups (unless it’s a truly top guy) or about weather (unless it’s really brutal), as these things certainly have an impact on performance…but they tend to have an even greater impact on ownership than on performance. (Xandamere is not alone in viewing things this way; most sharp players you talk to assess CB matchups and weather in this same way.) We could say the same thing about a situation like CMC coming back from injury. Maybe he’ll only play 70% of the snaps in this one…but any public concerns over workload will impact ownership more than they’ll impact CMC’s potential for production. Do you know why CMC is the only running back in the NFL who is able to play literally every snap for his team when asked to do so? It’s not because he’s a “freak of nature.” It’s because this guy’s workout regimen not only includes multiple workouts per day in the offseason, but also includes just as much of an emphasis on recovery between workouts as on the workouts themselves. (In other words: CMC is as disciplined and dedicated with the “recovery” aspect as with the “workout” aspect — including all the sacrifices and discomfort that comes along with this.) There is a near-zero-percent chance that CMC himself will not be ready here, as he’s simply not that type of person. And frankly, it’s difficult to see the Panthers allowing Mike Davis to cut too significantly into his snaps. I’m going into this one expecting CMC to play at least 80% of the snaps, and it won’t be surprising if he sees more work from there.
This is important, of course, as CMC changes the complexion of this Carolina offense. In Week 1, CMC had 23 carries and four targets in a back-and-forth loss to the Raiders, and in Week 2 he had 18 carries and five targets in a brutal matchup vs the Bucs (in which the Panthers were playing from behind, and in which CMC got hurt — opening up one carry and eight additional targets for Mike Davis). Since then, Davis has had opportunity totals of 22 // 22 // 26 // 21 // 12 // 15, with target counts in this stretch of 9 // 6 // 10 // 3 // 5 // 2. The Chiefs have been excellent against the pass this season, ranking seventh in DVOA, but they rank 28th against the run and 26th in adjusted line yards, while ranking 23rd in success rate allowed through the air to running backs (compared to sixth vs tight ends and third vs wide receivers). In spite of the fact that the Chiefs are regularly playing with a lead, they have faced the sixth highest opponent rush play rate in the NFL — including the third highest through the first three quarters of their games. Only Dallas, Green Bay, Washington, and New England have faced fewer opponent pass attempts per game than the 32.25 the Chiefs have faced, and only the Cowboys have faced more running back rush attempts than the Chiefs. Sure, teams have to score points to keep up with the Chiefs; but teams also know that keeping the ball on the ground is the best way to score points (and is the best way to try to limit Mahomes). Expect the Panthers to balance toward the run in this one — and if CMC truly is healthy, expect him to clear 24 opportunities (carries + targets) without too much trouble, with upside for more.
Carolina’s zone-heavy defense has shown cracks lately, falling to 20th in DVOA through the air (while still ranking near the bottom of the league against the run at 26th), setting up the Chiefs in a “no trouble wherever they want to attack” sort of situation. The Panthers have generated pressure at the fifth lowest rate in the NFL, and they’ve tried to make up for this by keeping the ball in front of them — forcing the second-shallowest aDOT in the league, but allowing a 69.1% completion rate along the way. The Panthers rank 26th in opponent drive success rate and 23rd in points allowed per drive (KC ranks top five on offense in both categories), and their goal in this one will be to hope they can “force Mahomes to march the field.” This bend-but-don’t-break mindset tends to work against weaker opponents, as weaker opponents will shoot themselves in the foot enough times over the course of a game to not put together complete drives (penalties // sacks // missed throws // etc.). But with a team like Mahomes and Kansas City, there isn’t much hope for self-inflicted errors, which creates opportunities for more of a “bend, bend, bend, touchdown” type of setup. Unsurprisingly, Carolina has been above-average in the red zone (ranking 11th in opponent red zone touchdown rate), as a low-blitz, seven-guys-in-coverage, zone-heavy defense can make it difficult to score touchdowns through the air in the red zone and green zone (only the Dolphins and Bears have allowed fewer passing touchdowns than the Panthers); but because teams have not had trouble reaching the red zone against Carolina, this defense has allowed the second most running back rushing touchdowns.
Expect the Chiefs to move down the field with ease in this one, though with more of a focus on short and intermediate looks than with downfield bombs (of course, the Chiefs will still design defense-straining vertical concepts, and they’ll try to take advantage of their talent edge downfield a few times; these defense-straining vertical concepts will also open opportunities for chunk gains underneath), and with drives as likely to end with touchdowns on the ground as with touchdowns through the air (Carolina has allowed nine passing touchdowns, and nine running back rushing touchdowns).
The Chiefs should (of course) eventually grab a lead in this one, with the size of their lead acting like an elastic band: the further away KC pulls, the more aggressively Carolina could eventually snap toward a pass-heavy approach. But as with other teams against the Chiefs this season, we should expect the Panthers to try to hold off on that pass-heavy approach for as long as they can: not in a Gase-like “going into a shell” sort of way, but simply because this will be their best way to try to sneak out of this game with a win, with CMC back in the fold, and with the matchup so much softer on the ground than it is through the air.
Well, I’m a lot of things…
I’ve played professional rugby in four countries. I volunteered for two years in Central America. I’m an investor and an entrepreneur. I work hard and play harder…And I’ve been building the same bankroll gambling since I was 14. The underground poker circuit was my first true love, but I’ve bet on anything and everything; and I’ve learned to only bet on things that keep my bankroll growing.
This year at OWS, I’ll be telling you what I like in a few games on the slate in this Betting Slant insert. I’ll also be running Betting Sharp alongside JM, where we’ll have a four-part training course, plus five training videos. We’ll be building the training videos around questions and observations from the Betting Sharp Discord channels, where JM and I will drop favorite bets when we see them, and will swing through on occasion to hang out and answer questions.
Note: You can find the first Betting Sharp lesson for free here!
Game Overview ::
By JM >>
It's Jake Luton time in Jacksonville. (Rejoice, Jags fans! The championship window is open!)Houston should have no trouble dealing on offense in this one; the questions is simply how aggressive do they need to beThis game could break poorly if Luton completely bombs; but in scenarios where he plays competently and the Jags keep this one "close enough," there is certainly fantasy goodness to try to mine here
How Jacksonville Will Try To Win ::
Jacksonville comes out of the bye with sixth-round rookie Jake Luton under center. The scouting report on . . .
Game Overview ::
By Hilow >>
Two teams in the top nine in rush percentage against two of the top five run defenses in DVOABoth offenses spread the ball, both defenses are top five in the league in points allowed per gameNot much room for fantasy goodness from this game
How Baltimore Will Try To Win ::
Baltimore has maintained their heavy rush rate (first in the league at 51.82%), looking to keep defenses off balance with deep passing (Lamar Jackson has really struggled in this area this year) and designed quarterback runs. As their defense has gotten more time . . .
Game Overview ::
By JM >>
Seattle is going to come out attacking (just as they've done all season)The Bills are an opponent-specific offense, but the matchup and expected game environment should tilt them toward the airThis game should get increasingly aggressive as we move through it, and points are highly likely to be scoredUhhhh, yeah. There might be a few spots to consider in this one...
How Seattle Will Try To Win ::
We’re past the point where there are questions remaining about whether or not this is real. The 6-1 Seahawks are just about . . .
Game Overview ::
By Hilow >>
Calvin Ridley likely to miss, with interim head coach Raheem Morris indicating that Christian Blake is the likely fill inTwo aggressive, downfield offenses with an average of 74.9 pass attempts per game between the two teamsExpected extremely narrow target distribution for the Falcons, with likely 40+ pass attempts from DenverLots of fantasy goodness here to unpack
How Denver Will Try To Win ::
Denver mixes average rush rates with heavy downfield passing, particularly with Tim Patrick on the field (16.4 aDOT). They have shown the propensity to really open up the offense and . . .
Game Overview ::
By JM >>
The Raiders have a middling matchup, a good pass offense, a bad run offense...and a strong desire to run the footballThe Chargers have a soft matchup, a good pass offense, a bad run offense...and a strong desire to run the footballPoints should be scored in this one, though we'll have to see how much the coaching staffs hold things backThere are some clear pieces here; there is a solid case to be made for building around this game; and there is one spot that requires guesswork...but could pay off big . . .
Game Overview ::
By JM >>
Dallas...doesn't shape up particularly well in this spotPittsburgh...doesThis game is a mismatch, and it's likely to play out that wayWe have to choose carefully how to attack this game in DFS, thinking about what the game environment (and coaching decisions) might look like
How Dallas Will Try To Win ::
With Dak Prescott out, Andy Dalton on the Covid-19 list, and Ben DiNucci deemed unfit to be the starter, Garrett Gilbert or Cooper Rush will be starting this week for the Cowboys behind a banged-up offensive line that ranks . . .
Game Overview ::
By Hilow >>
Injuries to both backfields; certain breakdown of expected touches for the Arizona running backs, uncertain for MiamiGame sets up well for how Arizona is likeliest to attack, and poorly for how Miami is likely to be forced to attackMiami is likely to struggle to sustain drives as well as struggle in the red zone
How Miami Will Try To Win ::
The Dolphins were afforded the opportunity to ease their rookie quarterback into the NFL in Week 8, scoring two defensive touchdowns and routinely creating short fields (interception at the Rams’ 33, fumble recovery at . . .
XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
Sunday night football has the Saints visiting the Bucs for a rematch of their Week 1 game. The game has a 50.5 total with the Bucs 4.5 point favorites, which feels low to me. The Saints are 5-2 but have just a nine-point scoring differential on the season (the Bucs are at 82). The total seems fine, to be clear (even in a weird game that looked mostly like a defensive struggle in Week 1, they combined for 57 points), but personally, I think the Bucs should be bigger favorites here. Both . . .
XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
Week 9 wraps up with two underachieving teams as the Patriots visit the Jets. This game has a total of 41.5 with New England favored by 9.5, which for those of you doing the math at home means the Jets have an implied team total of just 16 points. Sam Darnold is expected to miss the game, so it’ll be Joe Flacco at QB for New York. Good luck to them.
The Patriots’ running back corps, as always, is hard to decipher. Damien Harris saw 16 carries last week against Buffalo and had . . .
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