Week 7 Matchups

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WEEK 6 ROSTER BREAKDOWN

Point Total: 162.66

(Jump to Games)

Reminder: I always write my initial diagnosis of my roster right before games kick off, in order to capture my honest thoughts on the build. Here are those thoughts.

Second reminder: this is my DraftKings roster, as that’s where the majority of my play goes; but the breakdown of thought process is beneficial for all sites and styles of play.

30.46 – Matt Ryan
5.9 – Chris Carson
31.9 – James Conner
25.2 – Tyler Boyd
27.3 – Julio Jones
15.5 – Chester Rogers
11.4 – C.J. Uzomah
10.0 – T.J. Yeldon
5.0 – Bears

Results :: This team was good for profit in most tourneys. The two variations I built of this team (detailed below) outscored this Main Team slightly, finishing 85th to 90th percentile in tourneys, leading to a solid all-around weekend.

What I Wrote Before Kickoff:

As I mentioned last week in the NFL Edge: my main focus in Week 6 was the $3k Milly Maker on DraftKings, where I built three teams. I landed on one “main team” (which I entered in a few other contests on Sunday morning), with the other two as slim variants of this one. I’m not sure this team quite has the legs to make it to first place, but it has a shot. I like the ceiling on this squad quite a bit, and there is enough floor to still give me a shot at profit if a few things don’t go according to plan.

I did not spend a ton of time on the quarterback position this week after writing the NFL Edge, as I feel comfortable that Jameis Winston and Matt Ryan carry the clearest shot at the top score at the position, and additional study/thought time could be poured into other positions. This is a “don’t overthink it” spot for me, in a clear shootout with two defenses that should have a difficult time stopping one another. I had no trouble fitting in Ryan with a team full of players I wanted to use, so I’m taking the safety and upside here.

While “game flow” and “lack of pass game work” are concerns for Carson, we are realistically stuck with plenty of question marks at any player in this price range — and Carson carries more ceiling than most of his contemporaries. This game sets up great for him, and I like the floor/ceiling I’m getting in this price range.

Conner rose up my list on Thursday when I read the NFL Edge and began thinking through the ways touchdowns were likeliest to be scored vs the Bengals this week. Because the Bengals allow long, sustained drives (closed out with poor red zone defense), this game sets up great for multiple Conner scores. His touches give him a nice floor. His scoring position usage gives him a nice ceiling. And the matchup sets up perfectly. This is one of my favorite “process” plays on the weekend, and I’ll be fine with it regardless of the final box score numbers.

I kept “not wanting to play Boyd,” but realistically, he was one of only six guys who made my “Tier 1” list after my first read-through of the NFL Edge on Thursday. It sometimes feels strange to “pay up” for a guy you could get for cheap before, but Boyd is still a little underpriced, and this matchup sets up great for him, as the way to attack Pittsburgh is over the middle of the field. Boyd adds nice floor and ceiling to this roster.

With Julio :: I’d rather bet on the explosion than bet against it. If he “misses,” he likely doesn’t sink my roster. If he hits, the 50% to 70% of the field that fades him could fall out of the running, as he can hit for a higher score than anyone else on the slate.

Chester Rogers appears to be the ultimate “volume matters” play, with his aDOT of only 6.3 — but when you dig into “how he got such a low aDOT,” that pure number becomes less concerning. Rogers is seeing a lot of passes at or behind the line of scrimmage (guaranteed points — with potential for big plays if the blocking is there on these wide receiver screens), and he is then seeing two to four targets 15 to 20 yards downfield. This is a great blend for floor and ceiling, and he is the de facto number one receiver on a fast-paced, pass-heavy team, taking on a banged-up secondary. I like what he provides for my roster this week.

Tight end was such a crap shoot this week, I actually ended up in the Resources & Glossary page on the site, reading the piece I wrote before the season on what to do when there is no clear value — to remind myself of the best way to play this spot. Ultimately: bet on the lowest-priced guy who has a shot at matching or passing the “bad chalk.” It appears Austin Hooper is going to be popular this week — and while he “could hit,” there is nothing that suggests he will hit, and there is nothing that makes him a better play on paper than Uzomah, Vance McDonald, David Njoku, and a few other cheap options. Uzomah was a wide receiver in high school, and the knock on him coming out of college was that he wouldn’t be able to develop into a blocking tight end at the NFL level. Doesn’t bother me! While watching recent film on the Steelers for totally different reasons, it kept standing out to me how attackable this team is with tight ends — and this is something other teams have noticed, and have been hammering each week. The Bengals’ staff will notice it as well, and — as noted in the Player Grid — I’m banking on Uzomah seeing a rise in schemed targets this week, hopefully giving him a healthy four to seven looks to work with.

I kept coming back to Yeldon as a guy who just “makes too much sense to pass up.” Pass-catching back vs a team that filters targets to running back — with an 80% snap rate behind him. Plenty to like in this spot.

DST :: Bears // vs Osweiler. I had the Bears locked in already, but Osweiler starting just simplifies things. I could try to “guess” in another spot and hope to beat the score I can get here; but guaranteed points are always valuable, and there was no other defense I felt great about throughout the week, so I’m fine sticking with the chalk in this spot.

On Team 2, I dropped from Matt Ryan to Jameis Winston, and I moved up from Chris Carson to Tyler Lockett.

On Team 3, I dropped from Matt Ryan to Jameis Winston, and I moved up from Chris Carson to Marshawn Lynch.

I love that game in London, but game flow could get one of these guys in trouble, so this was a great way to hedge. If the game stays close, I actually expect all three of Carson/Lockett/Marshawn to hit. But if Seattle falls behind, my Carson team takes a hit while my other two get a nice boost. And if Marshawn gets sunk, it’s likely because Lockett and Carson are doing well.

I wanted to use Lockett’s speed against this bad Raiders pass rush and slow Raiders defense. I wanted to use Lynch for his sneaky 100-yard, two-touchdown upside.

I’m wrapping up this writeup with six minutes to spare until kickoff.

The process has been strong this week. We’ll see if the results follow — but I’m feeling great about the builds regardless of how things work out. These teams would be locked into profit if we played out this slate a hundred times — with opportunities for a few huge weekends.


When I build the NFL Edge, I dive into the research each week with no preconceived notions, and with no predetermined opinions about the slate. This allows me to position the research to influence my thoughts, rather than putting myself in a position where my thoughts will influence the research.

As I move game by game, I discover not only which players I am likeliest to prefer that week, but also what the slate looks like as a whole. And it was instructive this week to realize — after I had researched the first four or five games on the 10-game main slate — that this is one of the most unique weeks I can remember. For the first time this season, there are no “gimme” games — no spots that stand out at first glance, and that yield a number of quality foundation plays to DFSers who have lesser research (or even no research at all). This week, there are almost no “easy plays,” which makes things far easier on us.

I love weeks like this — weeks in which most people will be guessing across the board, while we can dig into the research and uncover the top options available — and I seriously cannot recall a weekend in the past that set up quite so beautifully in this exact way. If we were fortunate enough to play out this exact slate a hundred times, we would all be nicely profitable with this type of setup. Now, the key is turning that “large sample size edge” into the largest possible edge we can carve out in the small sample size of a single week.

Let’s get to it!

*

Carlos Hyde Traded (Oct. 19)

Theo Riddick Out (Oct. 19)

Dalvin Cook Out // Terrelle Pryor Doubtful (Oct. 19)

Paul Richardson Doubtful (Oct. 19)

Melvin Gordon Looking Unlikely (Oct. 20)

Rob Gronkowski Doubtful (Oct. 20)


Kickoff Thursday, Oct 18th 8:20pm Eastern

Broncos (
21.75) at

Cards (
20.75)

Over/Under 42.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Broncos Run D
30th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per carry
Cardinals Run O
8th DVOA/2nd Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
26th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per pass
Cardinals Pass O
25th DVOA/29th Yards per pass
Cardinals Run D
31st DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
14th DVOA/18th Yards per carry
Cardinals Pass D
31st DVOA/21st Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
18th DVOA/25th Yards per pass

BRONCOS // CARDINALS OVERVIEW

I imagine the Showdown contests for this Thursday night will draw less attention than most weeks, as we are presented with one of the most boring matchups imaginable, with a pair of backward-moving teams playing what projects to be a meaningless, low-scoring affair. The Broncos enter this game at 2-4, and are quickly falling behind the high-powered Chiefs and Chargers in the AFC West. The Cardinals are a no-hope 1-5. Vegas has installed the visiting Broncos as early 2.5 point favorites, with an Over/Under in the game of only 41.5.

The Broncos have played fast this year, ranking eighth in pace of play, while the Cardinals rank 24th. Each team ranks top half of the league in pass play rate, though each unit should lean a bit more run-heavy than normal if this game remains close throughout.

BRONCOS PASS OFFENSE

One of the most meaningful mistakes made by many DFS players (and even many DFS analysts) is that they take shortcuts in their thinking and simply label bad teams as “bad,” without digging into the various things that “bad teams” do well. And when we look at the “bad” Cardinals team, it continues to jump off the page each week how solid they are against the pass. In fact, the Cardinals are allowing the lowest average depth of target (aDOT) in the entire NFL — making it difficult for receivers to pop off for big plays. Through six weeks, only five teams have given up fewer pass plays of 20+ yards than Arizona, and most of these 20+ yard plays have come from short passes that were turned into yards after the catch. Arizona also ranks fifth in the NFL in sacks, and the Jaguars are the only team that has allowed fewer passing touchdowns than the Cardinals.

The bonus in attacking Arizona with an offensive unit is that the Cardinals are so awful on the other side of the ball (their offense ranks 32nd in drive success rate), they are pumping up the play volume in a big way for their opponents. The fast-paced Browns are the only team that has allowed more opponent plays per game this year than the Cardinals — and given that Denver ranks ninth on defense in drive success rate allowed, we should expect this to continue this week.

Even with all these plays faced each week, Arizona ranks middle of the pack in pass attempts faced. Part of this is simply that teams take a lead against Arizona and turn to the run; but a bigger part is that Arizona’s stingy pass defense filters teams toward the ground. This game does not shape up as a huge “volume boost” spot for Case Keenum and the Broncos receivers.

Unsurprisingly — given the tight zone coverage scheme the Cardinals lean on — the best way to attack them through the air (in fact, the only way to attack them through the air without running into areas of the field where they are above-average) is the short middle. Frustratingly, this head-scratching Broncos offensive scheme has completely ignored the short middle of the field throughout the early portions of the season — instead using Keenum’s mobility to target out-breaking routes, while rarely creating confusion for the defense by forcing them to account for receivers who are moving from one side of the field to the other. Even out of the slot, a good 90% of the routes Emmanuel Sanders is being targeted on this year are ignoring the valuable middle of the field, and Denver has shown no ability thus far to adjust for matchups in their play-calling and approach.

To rephrase all that: this matchup sets up poorly for the Broncos pass catchers. Obviously, it sets up best for Emmanuel Sanders, as the only guy who has shown a consistent connection with Case Keenum, and as the guy we would prefer to target against a team that capitalizes on forcing underneath passes. Demaryius Thomas would be second on the list this week, given the short-area throws the Broncos still use him on from time to time. Courtland Sutton is the piece least-likely to hit, with his downfield role in this offense. He still carries ceiling, but the matchup sets up worst for him.

BRONCOS RUN OFFENSE

While Arizona is facing only a middling number of pass plays per game, they have faced an incredible 28 more rush attempts than any other team in football. Before being pasted by Latavius Murray last week, Arizona had been solid against the run on a per-rush basis, but they are ultimately average at best (20th in yards allowed per carry, and they entered last week ranked 12th in DVOA against the run), and volume should favor the Broncos’ offense once again. Arizona is facing an average of 34.3 rush attempts per game, and the Broncos will be happy to lean on the run in this one as often as they can.

The Broncos continue to waste snaps on Devontae Booker, with classic bad-coach thinking of, “He’s on our team, so he should have a role.” While most coaches in the NFL would prefer to have the ball in the hands of Phillip Lindsay in space, Denver has decided that Booker is their “pass-catching back,” which has led to him continuing to play over 30% of the snaps across the last two weeks. Across that stretch, he has only two carries, but he has nine targets and seven receptions.

Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman continue to split early downs almost down the middle, with Lindsay playing 49 snaps the last two weeks and Freeman playing 55. Freeman is not trusted in the pass game (four catches on six targets all year), but he has 62 touches through six games, to 75 for Lindsay, keeping them in roughly the same ballpark. Lindsay has 14 catches on 19 targets, at 8.1 yards per catch — making his touches more valuable. (He’s also averaging 5.7 yards per carry, to 4.7 for Freeman.) You should be able to bank on around 26 to 30 combined carries from these two as a floor, which will push both into a near-starter’s workload.

CARDINALS PASS OFFENSE

As noted multiple times over the last few weeks: the Broncos have been bad against the pass this year, but they have been selectively bad — facing below-average volume, allowing a below-average catch rate, and tackling well after the catch…but getting smoked on the deep ball multiple times per game. Only five teams have allowed more pass plays of 20+ yards than the Broncos, and the best way to target fantasy points against them is to focus on perimeter wide receivers who see work downfield. Unsurprisingly, only three offenses in the league have racked up fewer pass plays of 20+ yards than the Cardinals.

When Josh Rosen looks downfield, he is targeting Chad Williams and Christian Kirk. Williams has seen a number of deep shots this year, and is beginning to be involved underneath as well, but he has connected for an embarrassing five catches for 58 yards on 21 targets this year. Kirk is a different story, and his developing connection with Josh Rosen is a lot of fun to watch. Since a two-target game in Week 1, Kirk has seen target counts of five, eight, five, four, and seven, and he has hauled in 24 of these passes for 307 yards and a touchdown. Almost all of his work has come within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, but the Cardinals have taken exactly one shot at least 25 yards downfield to him each of the last four games. This gives him a little extra upside.

This weak passing attack rounds out with Ricky Seals-Jones, who last week turned six targets into a 5-69-0 line…one week after turning six targets into zero catches for zero yards. He’s a risky play who has a bit of upside if things click. The Broncos have been below-average against tight ends this year, allowing the sixth most yards to the position.

CARDINALS RUN OFFENSE

Cardinals offensive coordinator Mike McCoy (in a “revenge game” of his own, after getting fired by the Broncos) is going to watch film on the Broncos this week and assume that the way to beat them is to line up and run the ball at them. And sure, that’s the way for other teams to beat Denver, as this team ranks dead last in yards allowed per carry; but Arizona will have a tougher time in this spot, with one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, and with a running back in David Johnson who is being misused as a between-the-tackles grinder. After three consecutive games of 18 to 22 carries, DJ has still not topped 71 rushing yards in a game this year, and he is averaging only 3.2 yards per carry. He is not a tackle-breaking machine, but is instead a guy who is unstoppable in space with the ball in his hands. The Cardinals appear to be incapable of figuring out how to use DJ in this way, as he has maxed out at five targets across his last five games, with no more than four receptions in any of these games. Expect north of 20 carries for DJ again, in a great on-paper matchup — giving him a shot at hitting. But go in with cautious floor expectations.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

I wouldn’t touch anything in this game on the full-weekend slate myself. Maybe one or two guys trip into a strong game, but we’re looking at a low, game-wide floor, with a modest, game-wide ceiling, which is enough to take all these guys out of consideration for me.

If playing the showdown slate, the most upside should come from the Broncos’ side, where Phillip Lindsay (first), Emmanuel Sanders (second), and Royce Freeman (third) would all be on my list. I’d be comfortable swapping spots on Sanders and Freeman for the latter’s touchdown upside, but Lindsay would be my favorite play either way, given the multiple ways he is used and the locked-in touches he will have.

I would roster all these guys over David Johnson. While the Jets pasted the Broncos on the ground with a below-average offensive line as well, their offense is well-designed, with a lot of movement and misdirection that almost looks like a baby version of the Rams at times. The Cardinals’ “scheme” is much more vanilla, with very little that can throw a defense off-balance. This makes the matchup matter more. DJ still carries plenty of upside, and it only takes a couple goal line carries to create a multi-touchdown game, but his floor is lower than the key guys on the Broncos.

Behind these four, Kirk, Demaryius, the defenses, the quarterbacks, and the kickers will battle for the top remaining scores, with no one standing out in that group. Guys like Booker, Fitzgerald, Sutton, Jeff Heuerman, and even Chad Williams are Showdown Specials — guys you can mix and match if multi-entering, in the hopes you capture unpredictable lightning.


Kickoff Sunday, Oct 21st 9:30am Eastern

Titans (
19.5) at

Chargers (
26)

Over/Under 45.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Titans Run D
10th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O
28th DVOA/28th Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
24th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Chargers Pass O
16th DVOA/21st Yards per pass
Chargers Run D
22nd DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
18th DVOA/21st Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D
30th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
24th DVOA/16th Yards per pass

TITANS // CHARGERS (LONDON) OVERVIEW

Two weeks ago, the Titans were complaining that they were not getting enough respect from the national media. (The quote from Taylor Lewan was something to the effect of, “There are 32 teams in the NFL, not 31.”) The Titans have since lost to the Bills and gotten pasted for a shutout by the Ravens. They sit at 3-3 in a bunched-up AFC South, and they will travel across the pond to take on a powerful, 4-2 Chargers team that has only lost to the Chiefs and the Rams.

Unsurprisingly, Vegas has been generous to the Chargers, installing them as early 6.5 point favorites, with a middling Over/Under in this game of 45.5. Each team ranks toward the bottom of the league in both pace of play and plays per game. Each team also ranks in the bottom eight in pass play rate.

Tennessee’s strength is defense, where they rank eighth in drive success rate allowed and third in red zone touchdown defense. The Chargers’ strength is on offense, where they rank sixth in drive success rate and 10th in red zone touchdown rate.

TITANS PASS OFFENSE

I am guessing that most of us have not made a habit of targeting the Titans’ offense this year, and this will be a tough spot for them to bounce out of their funk, vs a Chargers defense that has looked solid against every team but the Chiefs and Rams. Their one big issue has been downfield passing, which the Titans have not yet managed to get going outside their game against Philadelphia.

Upside-hunters can point to the elevated pass rush and coverage prowess of the Bills and Ravens as the main culprits for the backtracking this offense has done over the last two weeks — with pass rush being an especially important part, vs a Titans line that ranks 31st in adjusted sack rate allowed. The Chargers rank 19th in adjusted sack rate on defense — right next to the Eagles (20th), who yielded the only good game Marcus Mariota has had this year. The Chargers have a better secondary than the Eagles, but their zone defense does continue to break down 15 to 20 yards downfield when pressure fails to get to the quarterback, so there is a chance Mariota mixes in enough downfield strikes to Corey Davis to make him a sneaky-viable play this week on slates that include this game. His upside is undeniable, and he continues to hog air yards in this offense (his 41.3% share of team air yards ranks fourth in the NFL), though his raw volume in this broken, dink-and-dunk unit has been all over the map, with two games already of only four targets, and with two games of 13 or more looks. Game flow dictates Davis’ workload less than simply “whether or not this offense can actually sustain drives on a given Sunday.”

Taywan Taylor has disappointed the last couple weeks, but Tennessee has run only 54 and 44 plays in games against Buffalo and Baltimore. The slowed-down nature of this game should prevent the Titans from truly spiking in play count, but they should be able to move the ball better this week than they did the last two, creating a few extra opportunities for the offense. Taylor played under 50% of the snaps in Week 5, but he played 75% last week, and he’s a threat to score every time he has the ball in his hands, making him an upside play in his price range, though with a low enough floor to be a total dud if things don’t go his way.

It is shocking that Taylor is not seeing more schemed touches, as this passing attack rounds out with an ineffective Tajae Sharpe and an invisible Jonnu Smith.

TITANS RUN OFFENSE

The Titans’ offensive line has also sunk their run game, ranking 29th in adjusted line yards six weeks into the season. This is otherwise a good matchup for the Titans, vs a Chargers defense that ranks a middling 15th in yards allowed per carry and 21st in adjusted line yards.

Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis continue to split time, with Henry seeing more work when the Titans have a lead, and with Lewis seeing more work when the Titans fall behind. Henry has yet to top 60 rushing yards in a game this year, and he has only four receptions through six games. Last week was the first time this year Lewis failed to see double-digit touches, and with the Titans likely to run more than 44 plays this week, he should bounce back to eight to 12 carries and three to five receptions. Incredibly, these two backs have combined for only five carries inside the 10-yard-line all year, with Henry seeing three looks and Lewis seeing two. If they ever get down to the goal line, Henry is likeliest to get the call — but until that point, both backs are in play for the Titans, giving Lewis the higher floor/ceiling combo of the two. Neither is “likely” to hit, of course; but one of them “could.” Incredibly, the Titans have only seven offensive touchdowns on the year.

CHARGERS PASS OFFENSE

Only two teams in the NFL are allowing fewer yards after the catch than the Titans (on a per-reception basis), but this defense is otherwise a middling to below-average unit through the air — ranking below-average in adjusted sack rate, below-average in aDOT, and average in catch rate allowed. With the solid tackling, Tennessee does rank fourth in yards allowed per pass attempt, but the big key has been limiting the big play. Only five teams have allowed fewer pass plays of 20+ yards.

For the first time in a while, this is a matchup that sets up better for Keenan Allen than for the Chargers’ downfield threats. With an aDOT on the season of only 8.1 and the Titans tackling well after the catch, Allen will either need high volume or a multi-touchdown game to post a week-winning score (neither of which is the likeliest scenario), but he’ll carry solid floor with locked-in usage.

Tyrell Williams has seemingly supplanted Mike Williams as the primary deep threat on this team at the moment, though each guy will continue to be involved. Tyrell has an aDOT of 15.5 and 22.5% of the Chargers’ air yards, while Mike has an aDOT of 16.5, with 27.1% of the team’s air yards. Tyrell has not topped five targets on the year, and Mike has not topped four targets in three consecutive weeks. The ceiling is high on these two, but the floor is low.

Tight ends are afterthoughts in the Chargers’ offense, behind the wide receivers and the running backs. With low YAC ability vs a team that tackles well, it will be difficult for Virgil Green or Antonio Gates to post a big game in a dumpoff-driven role.

CHARGERS RUN OFFENSE

The Chargers have been great on the ground this year, ranking seventh in adjusted line yards, fourth in yards per carry, and sixth in yards per game — and this week, they get to take on a Tennessee Titans team that has been happy to give up yards on the ground in order to protect against the pass. As noted over the last few weeks: this “poor run defense” of the Titans is driven more by scheme than by personnel (the Bears and Ravens are the only teams in the NFL that have allowed fewer touchdowns to running backs than the Titans), but against such a dangerous passing attack, the Titans are not going to suddenly turn their attention to the run — which opens an opportunity for another big game from the dynamic pairing of Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler. Gordon has 19 or more touches in all but one game this year (the only game below that mark was a blowout win in which he was rested for much of the second half). Ekeler has gotten seven touches per game the last three weeks, and last week he showed his floor — averaging an incredible 6.8 yards per carry, but still yielding a low DFS score due to his limited role. He’s always a bet for monster price-considered upside, however, as he can score any time he has the ball in his hands.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Outside of large-field, hope-and-pray plays, I wouldn’t take anything on the Titans if this game were on the main slate (obviously, Corey Davis would be the most appealing option, followed by Lewis — with Taylor, Mariota, and Henry all behind him), and my interest on the Chargers would be limited to Gordon and (in tourneys) Ekeler. Keenan could also have a case made for him, but I like more guaranteed upside on my higher-priced guys.

As of this writing, there are no Showdown slates posted for this game, but assuming the sites get one up, I would rank scoring expectations in the following order :: Gordon // Rivers // Keenan // Mariota // Davis // Ekeler // Lewis // Tyrell // Mike // Taywan // Henry. Obviously, that’s a simplified approach that accounts for only baseline expectations without layering in Floor/Ceiling thinking, but the writeup above should help you figure out how to rearrange your own list based on the type of contest you are entering, and the type of upside/ownership balance you are needing to hit. The Chargers’ defense is likely to outscore the Titans’ D. Each kicker would obviously be in play as well.

SATURDAY EVENING UPDATE // Full “Updates” List

Melvin Gordon appears unlikely to play in the early-morning game on Sunday. If Gordon misses, Austin Ekeler becomes a clear Tier 1 play for me. He should step into most of Gordon’s role, and we know what sort of per-touch upside he boasts.


Kickoff Sunday, Oct 21st 1:00pm Eastern

Bills (
18.25) at

Colts (
25.25)

Over/Under 43.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bills Run D
18th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Colts Run O
9th DVOA/16th Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
9th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Colts Pass O
17th DVOA/15th Yards per pass
Colts Run D
24th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
5th DVOA/9th Yards per carry
Colts Pass D
14th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
3rd DVOA/7th Yards per pass

BILLS // COLTS OVERVIEW

The rebuilding, 2-4 Bills will be traveling to Indianapolis this week without the only piece they (theoretically) have to build around on offense, as Josh Allen will miss several weeks with a UCL injury. It is honestly surprising that this team has been given a Vegas-implied team total of even 18.0, after scoring point totals on the year of 3 // 20 // 27 // 0 // 13 // 13. Incredibly, the Colts have a worse record than Buffalo, at only 1-5. Making this whole setup even more topsy-turvy is the fact that the 1-5 team is a 7.5 point favorite. That’s the right call, of course; but it’s still strange to see.

Colts games have been a blast for DFS this year, as they are playing at the fastest pace in the NFL, and no team is throwing the ball more frequently than Indy. While Buffalo is not a speed-up team, they do rank middle of the pack in pace, and they shouldn’t slow down this game too much for the Colts. Ultimately, we are unlikely to find anything to catch our eye in this game, as Buffalo has been a defense to avoid, and their offense is hands-off, but we’ll see if there is anything hiding beneath the surface of these plays.

BILLS PASS OFFENSE

As of this writeup, Sean McDermott has not yet announced if Nathan “Five Picks” Peterman or Derek Anderson will be under center this week, but it really doesn’t matter. (Note: Anderson will be starting.) Peterman has been an absolute disaster every time he takes the field (his pick-six in last week’s game looked like a no-pads defensive drill, and there is talk that McDermott is going to lose the locker room if he puts Peterman on the field again), while Anderson wasn’t even on the team a couple weeks ago.

The Bills prefer to lean run-heavy (they rank 28th in pass play rate, in spite of playing most of the season from behind), but they have notched a non-awful 33 pass attempts a couple times in games where they fell behind. Because Indy plays so fast, only four teams have allowed more opponent plays per game.

Kelvin Benjamin has yet to haul in more than three receptions in a game, and he has caught only 10 of 32 targets on the year — a testament to his inability to gain separation or fight for contested balls. Zay Jones is once again the “best bet,” though he has topped 38 yards only once this season. Andre Holmes has yet to top 29 yards. Charles Clay has topped 29 yards once.

BILLS RUN OFFENSE

Buffalo ranks 24th in adjusted line yards and 30th in yards per carry, making it difficult for them to win with the “defense and running game” approach they prefer. This is a daunting matchup against an Indy team that quietly ranks fourth in yards allowed per carry, and that has allowed only three rushing touchdowns through six games.

In better news for LeSean McCoy: he has touched the ball 26 and 19 times the last two weeks, as the Bills have finally realized he is the only viable weapon they have. He is also seeing work in the passing attack (target counts on the year of 3 // 4 // 6 // 3 // 5), and only three teams have allowed more receptions to running backs than the Colts. Shady played a healthy 47 out of 58 snaps last week (after 47 out of 66 the previous week), and the play volume added by the Colts should give him a couple more opportunities than normal. Touchdowns are tough to come by in this offense (they are tied with the Titans for the fewest offensive scores in the NFL, with seven in six games), so Shady could have a difficult time reaching ceiling, but his floor appears sturdy at the moment with his workload locked in.

COLTS PASS OFFENSE

Buffalo is probably still not getting enough respect for how strong their pass defense is. Through six games, only four teams are allowing a lower aDOT than the Bills, and only five teams are allowing fewer yards after the catch per reception. Only three teams have allowed fewer pass plays of 20+ yards, and only two teams have allowed fewer pass plays of 40+ yards (the Bills have allowed one such play; Baltimore and Indy have allowed zero).

As noted last week, the way to rack up receptions against Buffalo is to move horizontally across the field. Teams constantly flatten out their routes against Buffalo’s zone, looking for a place where a pass can fit in. While this is part of what leads to the low YAC per reception rate, this does lead to an average catch rate — making Colts receivers fine from a “floor” perspective, given the volume they should see. (These guys are more valuable in PPR scoring than they are in half-PPR scoring, especially as Buffalo has allowed only five receiving touchdowns to wide receivers on the season — fourth best in the league.)

The Colts are so ravaged by injuries on offense right now that it actually tilts the needle that they lost Marcus Johnson to I.R. With Jack Doyle seemingly out indefinitely, T.Y. Hilton still on the mend, and Ryan Grant leaving last week’s game early, the Colts have signed Dontrelle Inman off the streets. (Inman is not in the player pool on sites this week, and realistically he will not be ready for anything resembling an impact role.)

If Hilton plays this week, he could genuinely see as many as 15 targets (in his healthy games this year, he had target counts of 11 // 11 // 10, and the Colts boast fewer weapons now), and his price has been lowered across all three sites. As always, a difficult matchup impacts floor and “chances of hitting ceiling,” but it does not eliminate ceiling altogether. Hilton’s chances of hitting will be lower than normal in this matchup — but if he’s on the field for his full complement of snaps, his target share gives him respectable floor, and he still has the ability to post an upside game.

If Hilton misses:

The target parade continued last week for Chester Rogers, who has target counts in Hilton’s absence of 11 // 11 // 10. Rogers had an off day on Sunday, dealing with multiple soft drops (and bailing out those of us who trusted him with a late touchdown), but he played much better the previous two weeks — hauling in eight catches each week, and making some tight-window grabs. As noted in last week’s Player Grid: Rogers’ low aDOT is not much of a concern, as this low aDOT has come from a mix of targets behind the line of scrimmage and targets downfield. We don’t like low aDOT marks when the receiver is only seeing slants and quick outs; but targets behind the line of scrimmage are guaranteed points (typically with blockers out in front), while downfield targets keep upside intact. This is still a tough matchup for upside, so Rogers is no slam dunk if Hilton misses; but he should once again see close to double-digit targets — and with the Bills allowing an average catch rate, the floor should remain solid.

Alongside Rogers, it continues to be the Eric Ebron show, and Ebron will retain his heavy role even if Hilton returns. The Bills have been tough on tight ends this year, ranking eighth in DVOA and allowing the eighth-fewest receptions to the position, with a catch rate below 60% (a strong feat vs the tight end position). From a macro perspective, Ebron remains one of the top raw plays on the slate at the position, but the difficult matchup makes it a little more difficult to settle down with his elevated price tag.

Behind these two (either Hilton/Ebron or Rogers/Ebron), it will be a slew of low-upside guys and backups in a tough matchup. The Colts have been spreading the ball around, but you’ll need to get lucky with a touchdown if trying to guess among guys like Grant (assuming he plays), Erik Swoope, and Zach Pascal.

COLTS RUN OFFENSE

Last week in this space, we guessed that the Colts might phase out Jordan Wilkins altogether if Marlon Mack proved to be fully healthy — and that was exactly what they did, limiting Wilkins to zero snaps. Frustratingly, however, Indy layered in Robert Turbin, who played 13 snaps and touched the ball five times before getting injured. If Turbin is out, I expect we see the Colts roll with only Mack and Nyheim Hines this week — leaving Wilkins on the bench. If Turbin plays, all three guys will project to see time on the field (with Turbin seeing the fewest touches, but carrying the highest chance of goal line work — effectively making it difficult for any of these three to approach significant ceiling).

Hines ran 22 pass routes last week to only 10 for Mack, while Hines saw only three carries to 12 for Mack. This game sets up better for Mack, as the Colts are likely to be playing with a lead — but each guy will have a role. Mack looked good last week, but Buffalo does rank sixth in yards allowed per carry.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

I obviously won’t be on the Bills’ passing attack or the Colts’ run offense, but LeSean McCoy and a couple Colts pass catchers will almost certainly make my initial list. This is only the second game I have written up on the Main Slate, so I don’t yet have a feel for how the whole slate shapes up. Hopefully better plays show up than these, but these at least deserve to be set aside and examined against plays from other games during the latter half of the week.

Obviously, a bet on the Colts’ defense is also a strong bet. Indy ranks 11th in adjusted sack rate and ninth in turnovers forced, and they can certainly get the job done against Peterman or Anderson on Sunday.


Kickoff Sunday, Oct 21st 1:00pm Eastern

Panthers (
20) at

Eagles (
25)

Over/Under 45.0

Tweet
Notes

Key Matchups
Panthers Run D
32nd DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
6th DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Panthers Pass D
20th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
7th DVOA/11th Yards per pass
Eagles Run D
19th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per carry
Panthers Run O
25th DVOA/23rd Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
28th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per pass
Panthers Pass O
32nd DVOA/32nd Yards per pass

PANTHERS // EAGLES OVERVIEW

This game gives us a fun matchup between two teams with legitimate playoff aspirations that each need this win, with the 3-2 Panthers traveling to take on the 3-3 Eagles. The Eagles have been installed as early five-point favorites, with plenty of faith being shown in the rhythm of Carson Wentz and his pass catchers.

Each team prefers to slow down the pace, with Philadelphia ranking 23rd in pace of play and Carolina ranking 28th. The Eagles have run the fourth-most plays per game in the NFL, but the Panthers have allowed the fourth-fewest, driven by their slow pace and their solid drive success rate on offense (10th in the league). Play volume for the Eagles projects to come in below their typical level, but this shouldn’t be a major concern, as the Eagles capitalize more on efficiency than on volume.

PANTHERS OFFENSE

For all the reputation the Eagles have as an awful pass defense, it is worth noting that everything that’s “bad” about them has to do with volume. The Eagles are actually an above-average pass defense on a per-attempt basis, having forced an aDOT 7% below the league average, alongside an average catch rate and average YAC per reception allowed. In all, Philly ranks 12th in fewest yards allowed per pass attempt, and their expected yards allowed per target is more than 5% below the league average.

The challenge for Philly is that teams do not like to run on them — and so, they face an above-average number of pass attempts. Philly has faced the fewest rush attempts per game in the NFL, but only five teams have faced more pass attempts this year.

Wide receivers who gain an additional boost against the Eagles (a boost that goes above purely “volume”) tend to be either A) sharp route-runners who can take advantage of the poor technique Ronald Darby sometimes slips into or B) guys who can burn Jalen Mills on double moves. Devin Funchess is the clear alpha in this passing attack, and as a guy who lacks quick-twitch skills, he is rarely used on double-moves, and he is not the most polished route runner. To sum all that up: expect this to play like an average matchup for Funchess, but his volume should be locked in place, even with Greg Olsen on the field, as teams always get pushed pass-heavy vs the Eagles’ front. Funchess’ regular seven to nine targets is a strong bet. He has five inches and almost 50 pounds on Darby, and four inches and 40 pounds on Mills.

Last week, Olsen played 59 out of 60 snaps, and he looked surprisingly healthy and ready to contribute — hauling in four catches on seven targets, for 48 yards. He provides far more upside than most tight ends and is underpriced for his upside on all three sites, though the matchup gives him a scary-low floor. The Saints are the only team that has allowed fewer receptions to the position.

Behind Funchess, Olsen, and Christian McCaffrey, targets will be split among Torrey Smith (42 snaps last week), Jarius Wright (37 snaps last week), and D.J. Moore (27 snaps last week). Moore has seen four and five targets the last two weeks with his role continuing to grow, and he has genuine upside in this matchup as a guy whose game should give Mills and Darby fits (his floor is low, of course — but he is priced for his floor, rather than for his ceiling). Smith has seen strange usage this year, with two games of two or fewer targets, and with five to seven targets in his other three games. His aDOT is barely higher than Funchess’, as the Panthers have been targeting him more as an intermediate receiver than as a downfield guy. Projections are difficult to nail down on a guy like Smith, but speed guys always carry upside, and five to seven targets seem like a fair projection once again.

PANTHERS RUN OFFENSE

The Panthers’ run offense begins with Cam Newton, whose worst rushing game this year was 8-29-0. He has three rushing touchdowns on the year, and he may be needed near the end zone against a Philly team that has allowed only eight passing touchdowns, and that ranks first in red zone scoring. Overall scoring expectations are not high for this team, and if Cam runs one or two in, he’ll likely be doing so at the cost of passing touchdowns, so take that information for whatever you feel it is worth.

Alongside Cam will be Christian McCaffrey, in a difficult matchup against this stout Eagles front. Rushing volume projects to suffer for CMC in this spot, though the Eagles have allowed the fourth-most running back receptions in the league. Outside of his 28-carry, two-target outlier against the Bengals, CMC has target counts on the year of 9 // 15 // 6 // 8, and as passing volume rises for the Panthers, target volume should be locked in for the Panthers’ back. Yardage on the ground will be difficult to come by, and McCaffrey has only one total touchdown on the year, with zero targets inside the 10 and only one carry inside the five; but the receiving work should keep his floor fairly solid. On a week like this, he is much better on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, where his PPR skill set plays better.

EAGLES PASS OFFENSE

The Panthers essentially define the league average in expected yards per target and yards allowed per pass attempt — allowing one of the higher aDOT marks in the league, with a league average catch rate allowed and with the lowest YAC per reception mark in the NFL. Essentially: You attack the Panthers downfield, and your guys get tackled as soon as they catch the ball.

To take thingsne a step further: you attack the Panthers downfield with routes that move receivers diagonally or horizontally across the field, rather than vertically — an approach that plays poorly to the responsibilities of Alshon Jeffery, who is typically asked to run his routes either downfield or toward the sideline. Alshon has seen target counts since returning to the field of 9 // 8 // 12. It’s not as if these looks will dry up, and it’s not as if this is an impossible matchup, so peg this as a “slightly below-average spot” for him, with his big workload and his surprisingly low price (under 13% of the cap on all three sites) keeping him in play. He already has seven red zone targets through three games.

Nelson Agholor sets up better in this matchup, but he has topped five targets in only one of his last four games, and his routes are typically run too close to the line of scrimmage for five targets to provide much room for upside. There is a chance his targets spike this week if the Eagles decide to attack on crossing routes, but keep in mind that Carolina allows a below-average number of plays, so you would essentially be banking on the Eagles proactively scheming the ball to Agholor if you choose to roster him.

The most reliable piece in this attack has been Zach Ertz, with only one game all season under double-digit targets — when he saw nine looks last week. Carolina has been middling against tight ends this year, and a hundred matchups of “Ertz vs Panthers” would neither raise nor lower our average expectations for him. Ertz has 11 targets in the red zone, good for seventh in the league.

Behind these three, guys like Dallas Goedert, DeAndre Carter, Jordan Matthews, Kamar Aiken, Shelton Gibson, and Josh Perkins are all seeing time on the field, though none of these guys have been proactively schemed the ball since Alshon returned.

EAGLES RUN OFFENSE

Last week, the Eagles gave 44 snaps to Wendell Smallwood and 26 snaps to Corey Clement, though it’s dangerous to try to read too much into usage patterns in the Philly backfield, as this is a team that likes to attack each opponent in a unique way. It looks like Darren Sproles will return this week to soak up some action as well.

The Panthers are below-average against the run, ranking 23rd in yards allowed per carry and 17th in DVOA — though because they do such a strong job limiting opponent plays, they are facing only 22.2 rush attempts per game.

The biggest advantage the Eagles have this week is their matchup against a Panthers red zone defense that ranks 31st in touchdown rate allowed, trailing only Tampa Bay. Since returning to the field in Week 2, Wentz already has nine pass attempts inside the 10-yard-line (leading to three touchdowns), and he has an additional 21 pass attempts (and four touchdowns) inside the 20. Smallwood and Clement each have only two carries apiece inside the 10 and one target apiece inside the 10 on the year, as this offense prefers to lean on its superstar quarterback and pass catchers when close to the goal line.

If choosing one of these guys as a salary saver who “could provide a starting-caliber score,” it will likely come down to touchdowns. Each guy has two touchdowns on the year.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Nothing pops off the page in this game, but as I’m looking through the games available on the main slate on FanDuel and DraftKings, it strikes me that this is a week in which our next-level research is going to become extremely valuable compared to what the field is working with, as there are no real “gimme” spots. This is the sort of week in which guys like Devin Funchess and Alshon Jeffery get added to your early-week player grid, to at least be compared to the other plays that come available on the slate. I have no idea at this point if either of these guys will remain on my list deep into the week, but in glancing over the 10 games we have to work with, it seems likely that these two — who are each priced too low for their role — will prove to be worthwhile guys to consider.

This is not a week on which I’ll be interested in chasing McCaffrey or Cam, but their upside obviously remains, even in a matchup that makes it tougher for them to hit.

The Eagles’ running backs are interesting in tourneys for the starter-score they can provide at a low price. It is purely a guess as to which guy will see more work and/or be given an opportunity to score, but if one of them pops in a touchdown and you guessed right, you’ll be in strong shape at one of your salary-saver spots.

Agholor is a consideration, but is not a guy I’m hoping to play, as there is just too much usage guesswork for me, and the ceiling has not proved to be high enough for this guesswork to be worth it against a team that tackles so well after the catch.

Wentz has obvious upside, and is a piece to consider even in a lower-volume game (he’s so efficient, he can often post a top score on around 35 pass attempts — something he did over and over again last year). Ertz projects as one of the safer plays on the slate, with strong ceiling to go with his floor.


Kickoff Sunday, Oct 21st 1:00pm Eastern

Browns (
24.5) at

Bucs (
28)

Over/Under 52.5

Tweet
Notes

Key Matchups
Browns Run D
5th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O
29th DVOA/32nd Yards per carry
Browns Pass D
2nd DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
Buccaneers Pass O
15th DVOA/6th Yards per pass
Buccaneers Run D
11th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O
21st DVOA/25th Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D
15th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per pass
Browns Pass O
26th DVOA/13th Yards per pass

BROWNS // BUCCANEERS OVERVIEW

Quite contrary to what anyone would have expected a couple months ago, this game will likely draw more attention than any other on the slate, with an exciting, fast-paced Browns offense (third in pace of play, third in average intended air yards) taking on an aggressive Tampa team that ranks first in the league in average intended air yards. These downfield-attacking units should pair up to create plenty of opportunities for big plays — with the sweetener being the league-worst Tampa defense boosting scoring expectations across the board.

On the front end of the week, this game boasts the highest Over/Under on the slate, with the Bucs carrying the highest Vegas-implied team total. There are going to be some ugly bumps along the road in this game, but it is going to be plenty of fun to dig into and to watch.

BROWNS PASS OFFENSE

It is no secret that the Bucs have had the most attackable pass defense in the NFL this year, backed up by the highest catch rate allowed in the league. While Baker Mayfield has struggled with his completion percentage early on (fueled partly by periodic misfires, and fueled in larger part by his receivers dropping too many passes), he has quietly faced four consecutive defenses that allow a below-average catch rate. The Bucs are by far his easiest test on the season.

The best way to beat this soft Tampa zone is to use crossing routes and drag routes to move through the zone into openings — an approach that has been hammered repeatedly this year by opponents, from the Saints (Michael Thomas) to the Eagles (Nelson Agholor) to the Steelers (Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster) to the Bears (Taylor Gabriel) to the Falcons (Julio Jones). While this is perfectly suited to the skill set of Jarvis Landry, Todd Haley has frustratingly been working Landry away from these types of high-percentage routes, which has put a significant dent in his floor. In fact, the pass catcher the Browns have been using in the role that should belong to Landry is David Njoku, who has been called on lately to hammer slants, crossing routes, and short drag routes. Njoku has only one game all season under seven targets, and he has seen double-digit looks each of the last two games.

Landry’s new route tree does not prevent him from hitting in this matchup (any good receiver can hit in this matchup), but his chances of a monster game are lowered by the way he is being used — especially as he has not yet found an apparent level of comfort, catching only 31 of 65 targets on the year. While that’s the bad news, the good news is that Landry has at least seven targets in every game this season, with four games of double-digit looks already. His best game on the year (8-103-0, on 14 targets) came against a Jets team that is best attacked in a similar manner — and in that game, the Browns called on Landry to run a couple more of his longtime routes than they have in other games. There is some hope that Haley and company manage to not sabotage this game, and that they work Landry into the areas of the field where he can be most successful.

If Rashard Higgins fails to get cleared this week (which seems likely), Damion Ratley will fill in for another week after going 6-82-0 on eight targets last week. Ratley played a no-joke 65 out of 74 snaps, while running a pass route on 49 of a possible 54 opportunities. Cleveland runs the second-most plays per game in the NFL, and Tampa is better attacked through the air than on the ground, so there is a strong chance Ratley sees at least six or seven targets once again, with upside for more.

On the other side of the field is Antonio Callaway, who caught two of 10 targets last week, for nine yards, bringing his total on the year to 15 catches for 186 yards and a touchdown…on 40 targets. Callaway has four drops on the year and continues to look raw as a route-runner, with visibly low football IQ (i.e., an inability to understand when and where to break off his routes, and how to maximize his opportunities for receptions). He has yet to top four receptions in a game — but the targets continue to flow his way, and he has the athletic talent to hit for big upside if something clicks in place this week.

No team in the NFL has allowed more yards per pass attempt than the Bucs, and no team has allowed more touchdowns or picked off fewer passes. The Buccaneers have notched the fourth-fewest sacks in the league this year, and they have given up the most passing yards per game and allowed the highest passer rating in the NFL.

BROWNS RUN OFFENSE

Further boosting the volume outlook for all four pass catchers listed above is the fact that the Bucs rank fifth in yards allowed per carry, and they have faced only 22.4 rush attempts per game. When the Browns pass, the passes go to Njoku and the wide receivers, as Carlos Hyde and Nick Chubb have combined for only six receptions all year.

Chubb has yet to touch the ball more than three times in a game, in spite of Hue Jackson’s insistence that he deserves more work. Carlos Hyde is difficult to trust as a guy who fails when he doesn’t score touchdowns — though the Bucs have allowed five rushing touchdowns on the year to running backs, and Hyde has 10 carries inside the five-yard-line, second in the NFL to only Todd Gurley. Hyde’s a low-floor play, but we shouldn’t dismiss his touchdown-driven ceiling.

Behind these two, Duke Johnson is another guy who “deserves more work,” but even with Mayfield throwing the ball an extraordinary 130 times over the last three weeks, Johnson has piled up only 12 total targets. He’s a scary-floor play, with big upside if the Browns happen to get him involved.

BUCCANEERS PASS OFFENSE

Cleveland has played strong defense in the secondary this year, allowing the second-lowest catch rate in the NFL through six weeks, while forcing opponents to throw to the short areas of the field. Outside of Tyrell Williams last week, the wide receivers who have posted strong games against the Browns have all done so by hauling in short-area throws (often drags and crossers) and picking up yards after the catch. Only four teams have allowed more YAC per reception than the Browns.

For a second consecutive week, things set up poorly for Mike Evans to hit for upside, as he annually ranks near the bottom of the league in YAC per reception — with this year being no different. The likeliest scenario here is that Evans’ targets rise back up to his normal range of nine to 11, after a down Week 5 (five total targets). He’ll need a touchdown or a broken play to pay off his lofty price tag.

Behind Evans, the Bucs are a frustrating mess of timeshares, with Chris Godwin and DeSean Jackson splitting time at wide receiver, and with O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate splitting snaps at tight end. Jackson carries the most upside of the bunch, with the third-deepest aDOT in the league. Tyrell Williams showed last week that Cleveland can be taken deep, but Jackson obviously remains boom/bust in this spot. Same as last week: Chris Godwin actually runs the routes that set up best in this matchup. He remains a part-time player, but he has shown solid floor on the year, and he incredibly ranks second in the entire NFL in targets inside the 10-yard-line, with eight. This is four more such looks than Evans, Jackson, Howard, Brate, and Adam Humphries have combined.

Humphries will continue to soak up four to seven short-area looks, and he humorously sets up well in this matchup as a guy who could add some yards after the catch on the slants and short crossers that can beat this defense. He and Jameis Winston have noted chemistry, often putting in extra reps together after practice ends.

O.J. Howard is also deployed on short crossing routes, and his YAC upside is undeniable. The floor here is low as a timeshare tight end with only one game all year above four targets, but the Browns allowed an above-expectation game to Jesse James and got pasted by Jared Cook. (Their other games were against the tight-end-poor Jets and Chargers, and the timeshare of the Ravens.) There is ceiling to be found.

Brate has almost no role outside of the red zone, but his touchdown prowess does manage to keep him in the conversation each week at a thin position.

BUCCANEERS RUN OFFENSE

The Bucs have a decent run game matchup against a Browns team that ranks 25th in yards allowed per carry and 16th in adjusted line yards — though the Bucs’ offensive line ranks 31st in adjusted line yards, and only three teams have notched fewer yards per carry. The Bucs have seemingly decided that Ronald Jones is going to be their pass-catching back, leaving Peyton Barber as a workload-secure two-down grinder. Barber hauled in four receptions last week, but that was a special circumstance, against a Falcons team that gets hit by running backs out of the backfield week in and week out. Barber had two receptions across his other four games. If he punches in a touchdown or two in this spot, he’ll provide strong point-per-dollar value, but he’ll need the touchdowns in order to be relevant on this slate. If you feel like chasing, Cleveland has allowed seven rushing touchdowns — the fifth-most in the league.

Jones saw three targets last week and one carry, on 12 snaps. Jacquizz Rodgers (10 snaps) almost matched him. Rostering one of these guys would be hoping for a miracle.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

My eyes are popping over Njoku right now — and while I don’t imagine he’ll be overlooked, he’s a guy I’ll almost certainly be comfortable locking in even if ownership is high. The Browns play so fast, and passing volume is so likely in this spot, we know the targets will be there; and he is running the routes that are best suited to beating this defense. Baker Mayfield will almost certainly find his way onto my narrowed-down list at the end of the week, while I’ll have Landry, Ratley, and Callaway on my early-week list as well. Their usage and the inefficiency of this offense will introduce some concerns for me to weigh, but any targeted pass catcher against the Bucs is in play.

On the Bucs’ side: I ultimately ended up having no interest in these guys last week against the Falcons (outside of Jameis), as this offense has so many mouths to feed — creating a situation in which Jameis can notch a big game without any of his pass catchers joining him. If I felt that way against the Falcons, I should feel that way even more strongly in this far more difficult matchup. Godwin and Howard will likely make my early list, but I’ll be surprised if I end up playing either guy. DeSean Jackson is also appealing in large-field tourneys for his boom potential, but I would have a tough time pulling the trigger in this matchup in smaller-field contests.

FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE // Full “Updates” List

The Jaguars and Browns made noise on Friday with a strange trade: Carlos Hyde to the Jags. Hyde will not be ready to play this week for the Jags, so he will start one game for them before Leonard Fournette is (finally) expected to return — after which he will become an insurance policy. As for the Browns, they are “finally able to get Nick Chubb and Duke Johnson onto the field,” as if their hands were tied from doing so before.

From a DFS perspective, I’m going to lay out some facts on the Chubb situation (both positive and negative), to give you some data points to work with in deciding whether you feel he’s a “Play” or a “Fade.” I have not yet decided where I will land (I am leaning one way, but there is time for further research to swing me back the other; naturally, I’ll let you know in the Player Grid on Saturday evening what I expect to do myself, in case this helps you in your decision-making). But as always: the best process on your end will be to gather facts and to make what you feel is the best decision for your rosters. By Saturday evening (around 7 PM Eastern), I’ll share what I feel is the best decision for mine.

The Browns have a middling offensive line (15th in adjusted line yards), while the Bucs rank second in adjusted line yards on defense. Only four teams have allowed fewer yards per carry than the Bucs. Only four teams have allowed fewer rushing yards per game (84.2). Carlos Hyde has yet to top 100 yards in a game this year. Nick Chubb — it should be noted — has more explosion than Carlos Hyde.

The Bucs’ run defense should be weakened this week with the absence of Gerald McCoy. By no means does this make the Bucs a below-average unit, but it does soften the matchup a bit.

Hyde’s role has yet to yield more than three targets in a game. Since Baker Mayfield took over as the starter in Week 4, Hyde has target counts of one, three, and zero.

Hyde is leaving behind one of the biggest red zone roles in football, with 10 carries inside the five-yard-line already (tied with James Conner for second in the league, behind only Todd Gurley), leading to five touchdowns on the year. While the Bucs have been stout against the run, they have allowed five rushing touchdowns (only eight teams have allowed more), as opponents regularly find themselves close to the goal line against this team.

In this same role last year, Isaiah Crowell topped 100 yards only once. He topped 60 rushing yards only five times all year. He did see far more targets than this role has yielded in 2018, but this has become a much more vertical offense with Todd Haley calling the plays and with Baker Mayfield under center.

This vertical offense opens more space for the running back to work — and to bust out a long play. Tampa has allowed four rushes of 20+ yards — middle of the pack in the league.

Ultimately — barring an unforeseeable spike in targets — Chubb’s fantasy score will come down to yards and touchdowns. You can hope he turns his one or two catches into a couple big gains (or that he is unexpectedly schemed the ball in the air), but “whether or not to roster Chubb” this week should really come down to “whether or not you think he will punch in one or two touchdowns.” If he scores, he likely becomes one of the most valuable plays, given how inexpensive he is. If he fails to score, he likely disappoints.

On a typical week, he would be a lock-and-load anyway, as even 70 yards on the ground plus one catch for 10 yards would be a more than acceptable “floor score” at his price. But with an unusually high number of quality options at the lower ends of the price range this week, it shouldn’t be difficult to beat that “floor score” with a different player.

Does Chubb score a touchdown or not? That’s what this play will almost certainly come down to.

As for Duke Johnson: I won’t play him, simply because there are a number of affordable guys I like this week, and there is so much guesswork on this play (why does Hyde’s absence open up more work for Johnson? — logically, it shouldn’t, but logic does not apply to this coaching staff). As most of you know, I’m a huge Duke Johnson truther, so if you think he sees a spike in work, I definitely like the play. I just don’t plan on trying to make that guess myself.


Kickoff Sunday, Oct 21st 1:00pm Eastern

Lions (
25) at

Dolphins (
22)

Over/Under 47.0

Tweet
Notes

Key Matchups
Lions Run D
3rd DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
3rd DVOA/1st Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
16th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards per pass
Dolphins Run D
21st DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
4th DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
18th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
9th DVOA/9th Yards per pass

LIONS // DOLPHINS OVERVIEW

The up-and-down, 2-3 Lions enter this spot as the second team in two weeks to come off a bye and travel to Miami, where they will take on a quietly solid 4-2 Dolphins team. People want to nitpick the Dolphins’ success and say they haven’t beaten anyone, but as we have been talking about all season: this is a coaching staff that is capable of finding ways to win ugly. One of the things that made Adam Gase stand out so much as an offensive coordinator was his ability to create successful offenses at various stops, with completely different types of players. The Dolphins’ offense is low on talent, but Gase and company will figure out a way to keep this game competitive against a surprisingly-favored Lions squad. This game is likely to remain tightly contested right down to the end.

While this game will likely be fun from an “NFL fandom” perspective, it will probably stand out less for DFS, as Miami ranks dead last in pace of play, while the Lions rank 31st in situation neutral pace. The Lions rank 21st in yards per game on offense, and the Dolphins rank 27th.

LIONS PASS OFFENSE

One of my favorite things about this article is the fact that we dig into every game and try to set aside preconceived notions as we enter into the research. This allows us to uncover interesting elements that go overlooked by those who are eyeballing things on a more surface level.

This week, it stands out to me that the Dolphins have been surprisingly mediocre against the pass on the season, in spite of their talent and their strong DVOA mark (11th in pass defense DVOA). The big issue has been a pass rush that ranks 29th in adjusted sack rate, so realize that we could start seeing improvement from this unit with Cameron Wake set to return this week — but the Lions have had a top 10 offensive line to begin the year, and Wake is coming off a knee scope that may limit his snaps. This still sets up as a surprisingly attackable matchup.

Miami has allowed average aDOT and catch rate numbers, but they have allowed more YAC per reception than any other team in the league. Among players with 25 or more receptions on the season, only George Kittle, Dede Westbrook, and Cooper Kupp have racked up more YAC per reception than Golden Tate. Tate has target counts across his last three games of only eight, eight, and seven, and Miami has faced a below-average number of wide receiver targets, so the guaranteed floor here isn’t quite what we typically expect from Tate — but against a team allowing a massive, YAC-driven 9.4 yards per pass attempt to wide receivers, he should have a couple opportunities to break off bigger plays.

The Dolphins have also been susceptible to vertical routes and deep crossers — the routes that Kenny Golladay is frequently being used on. They have been hit hard on a number of go routes this year, from player types ranging from Jordy Nelson to Taylor Gabriel. Golladay has only one game this year under seven targets, and he sees enough intermediate routes to carry floor to go with his ceiling.

The most boom/bust piece on the Lions is Marvin Jones — though realize that he does genuinely carry a ceiling that is just as high as what Tate and Golladay boast. He has the largest share of the team’s air yards, backed up by the sixth-deepest average depth of target in the league, with at least six targets in all but one game this year, and with the seventh-most targets in the NFL inside the 10-yard-line, in spite of an early bye. Jones and Matthew Stafford have connected on under 50% of their opportunities, so “floor” concerns remain. But he carries sneaky-big upside for his price.

LIONS RUN OFFENSE

The Dolphins have been hit hard this year by speedy, pass-catching running backs, though in the past, it has not been in the nature of Jim Bob Cooter to proactively scheme usage to a particular running back based on matchup. Unlike Matt Nagy last week (who we hypothesized might give another elevated workload to Tarik Cohen in this matchup), we have to assume that game flow, rather than matchup, will dictate running back deployment here — hurting the chances of a sneaky Theo Riddick explosion. When Riddick is on the field, his matchup will be good; but he should continue to “be on the field” only on third downs and obvious passing situations. (Note: Riddick missed practice on Wednesday with a knee issue. If he fails to get cleared this week, we could see an expanded role for Kerryon Johnson.)

I am going to guess that Kerryon Johnson will become somewhat chalky this week on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, where he is so inexpensive, and where tight pricing necessitates guesswork-driven moves. The thinking would be fair in this spot: Kerryon has significantly outplayed LeGarrette Blount, averaging 5.7 yards per carry and hauling in 13 catches on 15 targets — compared to a pathetic and embarrassing 2.5 yards per carry and three receptions (on three targets) for Blount. Touches given to Blount are completely wasted, and it is incredible that an NFL coaching staff would go so far out of their way to take away touches from one of their best weapons. “Surely,” the thinking will go, “the Lions will have used the bye to commit more fully to Kerryon.”

Obviously, we have no idea whether or not this will prove to be the case, so it is merely guesswork at the moment. So far, Kerryon has yet to play more than 50% of the Lions’ offensive snaps in a game — and given what we know about Matt Patricia, I honestly expect the workload distribution to remain in the same range moving forward. Here are the touch counts for these two backs, starting with Week 1:

Kerryon :: 8 // 13 // 18 // 10 // 14

Blount :: 4 // 9 // 18 // 7 // 12

Blount has six carries inside the 10-yard-line, to only two for Kerryon. Blount also has both of the carries inside the five. (#SMH)

Miami has been solid against the run, ranking 10th in yards allowed per carry and 10th in DVOA — while also ranking 10th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards. They are stout up the middle, where Blount is given most of his carries, and they can be had for chunk gains to the outside, where Detroit uses Kerryon more frequently.

DOLPHINS PASS OFFENSE

Here are the target counts on the year for Miami’s three primary pass catchers:

Kenny Stills :: 5 // 3 // 5 // 6 // 5 // 2

Albert Wilson :: 4 // 5 // 2 // 6 // 6 // 9

Danny Amendola :: 6 // 4 // 3 // 3 // 4 // 11

Amendola has an aDOT of only 6.3, and Albert Wilson has an aDOT of only 6.4. Wilson has posted a couple big games with a league-leading YAC per reception of 14.8, but his expected YAC per reception of 6.5 tells a different story. To give an idea of how we should look at a play like Wilson: he has averaged 5.3 targets per game, though we can bump him up to six targets per game for these calculations, since he has been seeing more work lately. If we went overboard for these projections and gave him a 100% catch rate, his six catches at an aDOT of 6.4 would lead to 38.4 receiving yards before any yards after the catch. Add on his xYAC/R of 6.5 per catch, and his matchup-neutral output on an unlikely six catches would yield a line of six catches for 77 yards as a realistic ceiling, with four catches for around 52 yards a realistic floor on six targets. This gives you a baseline idea of what Wilson can do in a game, while his speed gives him opportunities to break the slate open at his price. That’s not a poor “reasonable floor/ceiling range.” Detroit has been below-average this year in expected yards per pass attempt, though they are so bad against the run, teams have been largely ignoring the pass.

Amendola has no “big play” to his role in this offense, and he’ll need a touchdown or two in order to stand out on this slate.

Stills drew only two targets from Brock Osweiler, who will be starting again this week. With targets spiking on Wilson/Amendola last week, realize the Dolphins ran an uncharacteristic 79 plays — after play counts of 64 // 49 // 44 // 60 // 62 across the previous five weeks. Detroit ranks top half of the league in fewest opponent plays per game allowed, so the play volume should trickle back down in this spot.

DOLPHINS RUN OFFENSE

Miami ranks 21st in pass play rate, as they would prefer to win games by bleeding the clock (32nd in pace of play), running the ball, and shortening games as much as possible. This will be a great week for them to stick with this run-heavy approach, as Detroit has been detonated by running backs this year — allowing the third-most yards per carry in the league, and allowing the fourth-most rushing yards to running backs, in spite of their early bye.

Miami has apparently decided that 35-year-old Frank Gore and his shocking 4.9 yards per carry will be their “between the tackles” guy, with Kenyan Drake operating in a change-of-pace and pass-catching role. While we can knock it from a DFS perspective, it is working for the Dolphins, and there is no reason for them to change. Across the last three weeks, Gore has carry counts of 11 // 12 // 15, while Drake has carry counts of 3 // 6 // 13. Gore has only three catches across those games, compared to 12 for Drake.

Inside the 10-yard-line, Gore has five carries to three for Drake, and they have combined for only one red zone rushing score. Much like Patricia’s Patriots units, Detroit tightens up against the run near the goal line, as they have allowed only three touchdowns to the running back position. Detroit ranks eighth in red zone touchdown rate allowed overall, while the Dolphins rank 26th in red zone touchdown rate on offense.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Nothing in this game pops off the page, as this should be a “move the ball, stall out in the red zone, and kick field goals” affair — limiting upside on all players. But there are a few pieces that will make my list, and perhaps one of these guys will sneak onto my main team.

On the Lions’ side, I like all of Tate, Golladay, and Jones — though in a sense, that makes it difficult to truly gravitate toward one. All three guys have things that set up well in their matchup, and given pace concerns in this game and strong red zone scoring defense on either side (Miami ranks sixth in red zone touchdown defense, and they have impressively allowed only five touchdowns to wide receivers), it is likely that only one of these three posts a really strong game, while the other two fall a bit below expectations. In a “guess which one will hit” spot, this will make it difficult to pull the trigger.

Kerryon Johnson is worth considering for his upside and for the way his skills match up nicely with Miami, though I don’t expect him to rise above his typical 12 to 16 touches, and goal line work should remain with Blount.

Gore is worth considering on the other side for this tremendous matchup — but with no pass game role and a slim shot at touchdowns, upside looks thin.

Albert Wilson should also be locked into five to seven targets again, giving him a decent floor and a decent shot at hitting for another long YAC play. Regression is coming, but he’s still a strong player with the ball in his hands.

FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE // Full “Updates” List

Theo Riddick will miss this game. He has played 134 snaps this year (the same number as Kerryon Johnson). If we assume rational coaching, Kerryon Johnson will soak up most of Riddick’s role — being called on for work on third downs and obvious passing situations. This would provide a big boost for his outlook. There is some concern, however, that Ameer Abdullah will be foolishly called upon to take on part of Riddick’s role. The uncertainty is uncomfortable, but Kerryon does have a valuable role already, mitigating some of the risk. If he remains in the same role, he likely doesn’t kill your roster. If he takes over Riddick’s role, he could be a difference-maker. For me, he’s worth considering in tourneys.


Kickoff Sunday, Oct 21st 1:00pm Eastern

Texans (
19.75) at

Jaguars (
23.25)

Over/Under 43.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Texans Run D
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O
26th DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Texans Pass D
23rd DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per pass
Jaguars Pass O
13th DVOA/18th Yards per pass
Jaguars Run D
6th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O
30th DVOA/26th Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D
12th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Texans Pass O
12th DVOA/5th Yards per pass

TEXANS // JAGUARS OVERVIEW

These division opponents have been moving in opposite directions the last few weeks, with the Texans carrying a three-game winning streak into this game and the Jaguars trying to stop a two game skid. In a tight division, this game will be a meaningful and high-effort affair. Vegas has given the nod to the home team, as the Jaguars have opened as five-point favorites, with a low Over/Under in this game of 41.5.

This Over/Under may prove to be a bit low, as these are two of the fastest-paced teams in the NFL — with the Texans ranking fourth in pace of play and the Jags ranking fifth. Houston ranks sixth in plays per game, and the Jags rank 13th. Houston also allows an above-average number of opponent plays per game, while the Jags rank middle of the pack.

Each team is slightly below-average at sustaining drives, while each team is above-average at preventing successful drives, creating a game environment that can lead to extra punts, and to the ball changing hands more often — an advantageous setup for rostering DST units, as such game environments open opportunities for extra mistakes, turnovers, and splash plays on special teams.

TEXANS PASS OFFENSE

One of the big struggles for the Jaguars on defense this year has been their pass rush, as they rank 17th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate, one year after ranking second. This is making it easier for receivers to shake free just enough for quarterbacks to make tight window throws, leading to the Jags ranking near the middle of the league in aDOT allowed, while allowing a slightly higher catch rate (60%) than they allowed last year (57%). The Jags are still the best team in football at preventing yards after the catch, and only five teams have allowed fewer fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The Jaguars rank first in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game, while Houston’s offensive line ranks 30th in adjusted line yards — giving Jacksonville a chance to get their pass rush back on track. Only Cleveland has taken more sacks on the season.

In two games against the Jags last year, DeAndre Hopkins went 7-55-1 on a whopping 16 targets and 4-80-1 on another massive load of 13 targets. Deshaun Watson only played part of the first game, and none of the second — but this remains one of the toughest draws in football.

The Texans tend to hammer passes to Hopkins in difficult matchups — essentially betting that their best player has the best shot at beating a good defense. As such, volume may continue to be an issue for Will Fuller (recent target counts of five, three, and three). Long-term, I’m not concerned about Fuller, as he has had three consecutive matchups that set up poorly for his skill set and role; but this is yet another matchup that falls into that category, making him nothing more than a dart throw.

Keke Coutee continues to be schemed the ball behind the line of scrimmage (two of his five targets last week came behind the LOS), with his route tree expanding the last couple weeks to get him some downfield looks as well. His speed plays well with the ball in his hands, but it’s still a difficult draw.

Behind these guys, Ryan Griffin saw five targets last week, in a matchup we highlighted as one that would likely filter looks his way, with Griffin’s inefficiency being the only question mark. He turned those five targets into zero receptions — the second time he has done that in a positive matchup this year.

TEXANS RUN OFFENSE

The Jaguars have dominated the NFL in run defense…except while playing Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott. It goes without saying that Lamar Miller and Alfred Blue are not in the same class as Saquon and Zeke.

Houston ranks 25th in adjusted line yards this year on offense, while lead back Miller is averaging only 3.7 yards per carry. Miller saw 17 touches last week, while Alfred Blue saw nine. Typically in this spot, I would say that either guy will need a broken play or a multi-touchdown game in order to post a strong DFS score, but even a “broken play” is unlikely to materialize for major upside, given the speed this Jaguars defense boasts. Either guy will need a multi-touchdown game to rub shoulders with Week 7 relevance.

JAGUARS PASS OFFENSE

Since playing the Patriots in Week 1, the Texans’ pass defense has had a pillow-soft schedule, taking on Blaine Gabbert and the Titans, Eli Manning and the Giants, a hampered Colts squad, the poor passing attack of the Cowboys, and the train wreck Bills. This makes it difficult to get a true read on just how good (or just how attackable) they might be, but for now — entering another soft matchup, vs Blake Bortles and the Jags — we can lean on the data we have to date, which shows the Texans as a middling pass defense that is getting more pressure on the quarterback than their pure sack numbers show.

We are beginning to get a good feel for where targets are going to go on the Jaguars in certain matchups, given how each receiver is being deployed. The Texans play a lot of man coverage, and while T.Y. Hilton (in limited snaps) is the only receiver who has really been able to test this team deep, he was able to shake free for some downfield receptions, and was able to use his downfield threat to run defensive backs off his routes before curling back or running a deep out. These are the routes the Jaguars have been using Keelan Cole and Donte Moncrief on, making them more likely to see targets pile up than Dede Westbrook, who is being used more on crossing routes and underneath looks. This is not a great passing offense, and the matchup is average to below-average for Blake Bortles and company, but Cole, in particular, has reliable big-play upside if on-target looks come his way.

After the Jags had almost no time with the ball last week vs the Cowboys, we should expect to see Bortles’ pass attempts rise back to the 33 to 38 range (he has been in that range in three of six games — with a pair of outlier “spiked weeks” vs the high-powered attacks of KC and New England, and with only 26 attempts last week vs the ball-control Cowboys), which should still leave five to seven targets for Westbrook if the Texans attack downfield with Cole and Moncrief — and there is also a chance the Jags see something that makes Dede the focus this week. On a week like this, none of these guys are “reliable,” but they all warrant a mention.

With Niles Paul joining Austin Seferian-Jenkins on I.R., James O’Shaughnessy is the last man standing at tight end for the Jags. Four to six “catch and fall” targets should be his expected range here.

JAGUARS RUN OFFENSE

Houston has continued to be one of the toughest teams to run on this year (third in yards allowed per carry), and the Jags’ run offense has gone into the tank without Leonard Fournette. Fournette may return this week — in which case (assuming he is fully healthy and ready for his typical role), he would become the engine of the offense, as a near every-down back who would be locked into 20+ touches (with pass game work mixed in), in a difficult matchup — making him a low-floor, high-ceiling play. (The floor is especially lowered by risk that the Jags could go easy on him in his first game back.) A Fournette return would almost certainly render T.J. Yeldon unusable.

If Fournette misses again, Yeldon will continue to fill in. He has yet to top 60 rushing yards in a game this year, and this would be a poor spot for him to buck that trend, but he has target counts on the year of seven, five, seven, three, 10, and five. Houston is average against pass-catching running backs. Yeldon has a respectable 10 touches in the red zone this year.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

This game doesn’t appear to have anything that will catch my eye this week. Obviously, Deshaun Watson is one of a small number of guys with enough upside to be placed in the “always consider in tourneys” bucket — but this is a massively difficult spot, behind a poor offensive line, in an offense that is more “talent” than “scheme.”

The best bet for relevance on the Texans’ side of the ball is Hopkins, as he is almost guaranteed to see a massive workload. I’ll honestly be surprised if he posts a truly disappointing game — but it will be difficult for him to pop off for the sort of week-winning score we should be targeting in his price range. I like him in large-field tourneys if ownership projects to be low, simply because there aren’t many NFL players who can hit for 25+ FanDuel points or 30+ DraftKings/FantasyDraft points, and he remains one of those guys — even in a difficult matchup. Obviously, that upside is far from guaranteed to hit.

You could make a speed- and talent-based case for Fuller and Keke, but I won’t be there myself. There are simply much better plays on the slate.

The Jags’ offense is too much of a mess for me to want to touch it.

I do like each defense — with special emphasis on the Jags, taking on a quarterback in Watson who A) takes sacks, and B) takes risks. It’s reasonable to expect Jacksonville to rack up a fair number of sacks, with one or two turnovers added in.


Kickoff Sunday, Oct 21st 1:00pm Eastern

Vikings (
24.25) at

Jets (
20.75)

Over/Under 45.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Vikings Run D
12th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
32nd DVOA/13th Yards per carry
Vikings Pass D
10th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
31st DVOA/31st Yards per pass
Jets Run D
14th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Vikings Run O
27th DVOA/22nd Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
3rd DVOA/7th Yards allowed per pass
Vikings Pass O
21st DVOA/17th Yards per pass

VIKINGS // JETS OVERVIEW

This is an interesting game, between a 3-2-1 Vikings team with Super Bowl aspirations and an upstart 3-3 Jets team that is better than most seem willing to give them credit for. The Vikings are installed as early three point favorites, and the line should hover around this mark all week — with decent scoring expectations in this game, which has been awarded an Over/Under of 46.5.

Minnesota has been a pace-up team this year, ranking sixth in pace of play overall (compared to 21st for the Jets). This has led to Minnesota ranking seventh in the NFL in plays per game, while the Jets rank 25th. Minnesota allows the sixth-fewest opponent plays per game, while only five teams have allowed more plays per game than the Jets — setting up a situation that tilts nicely toward the Vikings. Only two teams have run the ball more frequently than the Jets, and only two teams have passed the ball more frequently than the Vikings. Essentially: the Vikings’ goal is to put points on the board and put pressure on their opponents to respond, while the Jets’ goal is to bleed the clock, shorten the game, keep things close, and hopefully come out with a win in the end. A bet on players in this game is a bet on the Vikings jumping out to a lead and forcing the Jets to become more aggressive in response, which will open opportunities for fantasy points on either side of the ball.

VIKINGS PASS OFFENSE

The Jets have been a bit above-average against the pass this year, allowing only 7.2 yards per pass attempt — fueled by the seventh-lowest aDOT allowed in the league. While this would be an “upside concern” for some teams, this doesn’t bother us for the Vikings’ attack that capitalizes on short-area throws, pairing volume and efficiency. Through six games, target counts for Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs look like this:

Thielen :: 12 // 13 // 19 // 12 // 10 // 15

Diggs :: 6 // 13 // 10 // 15 // 11 // 5

Thielen has 44.3% of the Vikings’ air yards on the year (second in the NFL, behind only Julio Jones), while Diggs has 33.2% of the team’s air yards (16th in the NFL). Thielen has seen the most targets in the NFL, while Diggs ranks 10th. Thielen does have nine red zone targets, to only four for Diggs.

As we have explored the last few weeks, the way to beat the Jets is with crossing routes — particularly crossing routes out of the slot that move from the left side of the field to the right. This is right in line with what Thielen is asked to do each week, and he sets up perfectly in this matchup.

This sets up more as a “Thielen game” than as a “Diggs game,” but it is reasonable to expect Diggs to bounce back up to nine or more targets this week after taking a backseat last week vs the stingy perimeter defense of the Cardinals. He’ll have some boom/bust to his game this week, but the “boom” potential is definitely there.

Behind these guys, Kyle Rudolph continues to soak up four to six catch-and-fall targets each week. Only four teams have allowed fewer tight end receptions, but there is no reason Rudolph can’t match what he has done the last four weeks (an average of 4.75 receptions and 45.75 yards), with a backseat red zone role that could add some ceiling if everything goes just right. Laquon Treadwell has seen exactly four targets in four of six games — though he is almost never being schemed looks. He should run into four to six targets once again in this one.

VIKINGS RUN OFFENSE

Last week, Dalvin Cook appeared on track to play before being a surprise inactive on Sunday morning. This week, Cook is practicing in full on Wednesday and finally appears set for a return to this offense. In his three games on the field this year, Cook has touch counts of 22 // 13 // 10 — and given how much time he has missed, the likeliest scenario is that he falls into the range of those latter two games.

The return of Cook will also limit the opportunity for Latavius Murray to rediscover the fairy dust that led to his unlikely Week 6 explosion, as this pass-heavy Vikings team has averaged only 24 rush attempts per game, and before Murray’s 6.5 YPC game last week, he had been averaging 3.5 yards per carry on the season. Look for Murray to mix in throughout the game with around eight to 14 touches, and with a share of the goal line work.

The Jets are average against the run, ranking 18th in yards allowed per carry and 17th in adjusted line yards.

JETS PASS OFFENSE

Let’s start here: Quincy Enunwa is going to miss this week with a high ankle sprain, while Robby Anderson and Terrelle Pryor both missed practice on Wednesday, leaving Jermaine Kearse as the only guaranteed piece of this passing attack. We’ll approach this writeup assuming all three guys will play, but we’ll keep an eye out and account for any changes in late-week updates.

The Vikings have continued to struggle against the pass, allowing opponents to attack on intermediate routes (only six teams have faced a deeper aDOT than the Vikings), while allowing average catch rate marks and tackling poorly after the catch (only three teams are allowing more YAC per reception).

The Quincy Enunwa role in this offense is designed to give Sam Darnold easy throws into areas of the field where the pass catcher can pick up yards after the catch (Enunwa ranks 18th in the NFL in xYAC/R), creating a valuable situation for whichever guy steps into these looks.

The easy answer, of course, is that Jermaine Kearse will soak up all of Enunwa’s targets, though the Jets like Enunwa’s big body over the middle, and they actually shifted Terrelle Pryor into the slot last week and gave him Enunwa-like looks. Pryor saw six targets on 44 snaps last week, while Kearse saw 10 targets on 59 snaps. Target projections are a bit higher on Kearse than they are on Pryor — but if the latter plays, the target distribution could be closer than most are likely to anticipate. Four of Pryor’s 22 targets this year have come in the red zone, compared to three of 27 for Kearse. Outside of Davante Adams (for whom matchup really doesn’t matter), players who have had success through the air against the Vikings this year have done so primarily in three ways :: wide receiver screens, or swing passes on jet sweep action (getting the ball into the receiver’s hands at or behind the line of scrimmage) // crossing routes over the middle of the field // seam routes. Pryor is best suited to the latter two approaches, while Kearse is primarily suited to the first two approaches. Each should be involved this week if healthy.

Robby Anderson profiles for a backseat in this matchup, if he plays, as he’ll likely draw shadow coverage from Xavier Rhodes, and his responsibilities in this Jets offense match up against the relative strength of this once-proud pass defense. It only takes one play for Anderson to hit, but his floor is low this week.

The Jets will also have a chance to hit the Vikings up the seam with Chris Herndon or Neal Sterling, but Herndon has been used primarily as a run blocker, while Sterling has only five targets on the year. Ultimately, Pryor is the best bet for “tight end” targets in this spot.

JETS RUN OFFENSE

Minnesota has been consistently stout against the run this year — not only allowing the seventh-lowest yards per carry in the league, but also standing out as one of only two teams in the league that has yet to allow a run of 20+ yards. As noted a couple weeks ago: the Vikings’ defensive issues early in the year have largely come down to communication in pass coverage — which does not impact the ability of this talented unit to stop the run. This is a tough spot for Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell. Minnesota has also allowed only one rushing touchdown to running backs, and their 20 receptions allowed to running backs is the third-fewest in the league.

Touch counts this year for Crow and Powell have gone as follows:

Crow :: 10 // 14 // 18 // 5 // 16 // 15

Powell :: 13 // 10 // 14 // 12 // 20 // 17

Crow has eight catches, to 10 for Powell. Crow has six carries inside the 10, to three for Powell. The Eagles are the only team in football that has allowed a lower red zone touchdown rate than the Vikings.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

I began poking around at roster construction on Tuesday night, and on the FanDuel/DraftKings main slate (where the Chiefs/Bengals game is not included), there were only three players who stood out to me as high-priced “priority plays.” Those three were Thielen, Gurley, and Zeke, and it is unsurprising that the research backs up this sentiment on Thielen. These three combine to cost 53% of the salary cap on DraftKings, while FanDuel has stepped up their pricing game this week as well, bundling these three at 49% of the salary cap. (With “bargain bin” options costing a larger percentage of the salary cap on FanDuel, it is probably going to be even more difficult to fit all three together on there.) It appears that the only way to fit all three together this week is to take sub-optimal plays in several other spots on your roster (rarely a profitable approach), but barring any unexpected discoveries later in the research, I’ll likely be looking to fit at least two of these guys onto my main team this week. Thielen stands out as one of the safest, highest-upside plays on the slate.

Behind Thielen, Diggs is also a solid tourney option for his upside — though his floor is obviously less sturdy, given the drop in targets he sees from time to time. I’m also not averse to tossing Rudolph onto a team, though he’s an inferior play this week to guys like Njoku and Ertz, in terms of raw projections. On a week with no clear shootouts, Kirk Cousins is also strongly in play. Cousins (12 passing touchdowns, one rushing touchdown) has accounted for 13 of the Vikings’ 14 offensive touchdowns on the year.

I’m not interested in the Vikings’ backfield, and the Jets’ backfield doesn’t draw my eye either. One of these guys could hit for a solid game, but even that’s not a guarantee — and picking among these options would be nothing but guesswork.

The Enunwa injury will probably pull DFS attention toward the Jets’ passing attack, as targets are likely to rise for both Kearse and Pryor. Pryor’s season-long usage makes him look like a poor bet in this spot, but he quietly has opportunity to soak up more of Enunwa’s role than most will anticipate. People have been lazily calling Enunwa the “slot receiver,” and are sure to assess this spot as though “slot receiver” Kearse will step into Enunwa’s role. Realistically, Enunwa has played 94 snaps out wide over the last four weeks, to 74 slot snaps, and last week Pryor stepped into 28 snaps out wide and 15 slot snaps (after seeing only 17 total slot snaps on the year heading into the game). Pryor is the true “replacement” for Enunwa, while Kearse (74.5% slot rate on the year) will retain his normal role, with a couple extra looks ticketed to go his way. Kearse has the higher floor, but Pryor has similar upside and is worth a look as well. Neither is a lock for production (rookie QB // talented defense // run-heavy offense // guesswork involved on targets and usage), but each sets up respectably for his price this week.

FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE // Full “Updates” List

Dalvin Cook is out again. It will be Latavius Murray in the lead, splitting minor time with Roc Thomas and Mike Boone. Latavius showed his ceiling in this role last week, and he showed his floor in this role two weeks ago.

In this same game, Terrelle Pryor is doubtful. It will be Jermaine Kearse soaking up most of the valuable looks in the middle of the field for this offense. It is worth noting that Darnold has thrown for under 200 yards (and for 17 or fewer completions) in four of his six games, in an offense that prefers to lean run-heavy. It is also worth noting that Minnesota is strong against the run and can be hammered on interior routes. Kearse doesn’t appear to be a true lock for production, but his chances of hitting are strong for the price, and there is upside in this position.


Kickoff Sunday, Oct 21st 1:00pm Eastern

Patriots (
25.5) at

Bears (
23.5)

Over/Under 49.0

Tweet
Notes

Key Matchups
Patriots Run D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
10th DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
13th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
23rd DVOA/23rd Yards per pass
Bears Run D
4th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
23rd DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
17th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
29th DVOA/28th Yards per pass

PATRIOTS // BEARS OVERVIEW

The scorching hot, 4-2 Patriots will travel to Chicago to take on the upstart, 3-2 Bears. New England is coming off an uplifting home win over the previously undefeated Chiefs, while the Bears are returning home off a disappointing overtime loss in Miami.

Vegas has given a good bit of respect to the Bears this week, installing the Patriots as only three point favorites on the road. This game pairs a Patriots unit that ranks seventh in the NFL in pace of play against a Bears team that plays at the third-slowest pace in the league. Each team has leaned run-heavy, though the Patriots can obviously modify their approach from week to week, depending on the matchup, while the Bears can shift over to the pass if the Patriots take a lead.

PATRIOTS RUN OFFENSE

Typically, we kick off our exploration of a game with the visiting passing attack, but with the Patriots shape-shifting so fluidly on offense — and with them going run-heavy lately in matchups that set up well on the ground — we’ll take a look at this side of the matchup first.

The Bears have been one of the better teams against the run on the year, ranking eighth in yards allowed per carry, while allowing only one rush play all season of 20+ yards (third best in the league). The Bears have been even better against running backs (3.9 YPC allowed overall; 3.7 allowed to RBs), and they are the only team in the NFL that has not yet allowed a rushing touchdown to running backs. Chicago has also allowed the fewest receptions and the third-fewest receiving yards to the position.

New England has a way of taking matchups like this and smashing in them from time to time — figuring out ways (for example) to get exactly the look they want for James White, and to put him in position for something like a 7-85-1 line through the air against a team that had previously been nails against his exact role; but on paper, this is a difficult draw for White through the air, and it is a difficult draw for Sony Michel on the ground.

If you want to bet on the Patriots coming out on top in a strength-on-strength matchup, Michel has only one reception across the last three weeks, but he has carry counts of 25 // 18 // 24, with four touchdowns scored. In all, he has seven carries inside the five-yard-line, good for fourth in the league.

White has touch counts on the year of 9 // 11 // 7 // 16 // 12 // 11, giving him a low floor in this spot — though with his pass game role, his skills in space, and his five touchdowns on the season, his upside remains.

PATRIOTS PASS OFFENSE

This is the sort of matchup in which we should expect the Patriots to still lean on the run in order to slow down the Bears’ pass rush (and to set up play-action) — but the likeliest way for New England to move the ball effectively will be through the air, against a Bears team that ranks 22nd in yards allowed per pass attempt, and that has allowed the 12th-most yards to wide receivers, in spite of the early bye. On a per-game basis, the Bears have surprisingly given up the second-most yards per game to the wide receiver position, behind only the Saints. The Bears are allowing a massive 70.9% completion rate to wide receivers, while putting the clamps on running backs and tight ends through the air (only two teams have allowed fewer receptions to tight ends, and only three teams have allowed fewer yards).

In the short areas of the field, the Bears are best attacked over the middle, but their issues have come from downfield passing and yards allowed after the catch.

Last week, Josh Gordon not-so-quietly played 63 of a possible 78 snaps for the Patriots, while Phillip Dorsett was on the field for only three snaps. The routes that Dorsett had been running — and that Gordon has mostly taken over — are the routes that have given the Bears trouble this year: primarily go routes, but also deep posts and short/intermediate curls, quick outs, etc. Gordon saw nine targets last week on 35 Tom Brady pass attempts. On the season, Brady has pass attempt numbers of 39 // 35 // 26 // 35 // 44 // 35, so this is a comfortable range to project for overall volume. With the Bears tightening up on tight ends and running backs, another eight to 10 looks is a reasonable projection for Gordon.

Julian Edelman has seen target counts of nine and seven since returning to the field, though he’ll need a touchdown or a scramble-drill play to pay off his surprisingly lofty price tag on DraftKings, while he is less valuable on FanDuel without full PPR scoring. Edelman is priced appropriately on FantasyDraft, but the inclusion of the Sunday night game on there bumps him further down the list.

While Edelman and Chris Hogan each run about half their routes from the slot and half their routes out wide, Hogan runs a lot more vertical routes, making him a sneaky deep-tourney bet for a strong game. From a “floor” perspective, this is a thin play, as he has zero games all year north of five targets (and he has not topped four targets in a month), but upside is there.

Rob Gronkowski is good enough to win even in difficult matchups — though in addition to the tough matchup, this is the sort of spot in which the Patriots are likely to use Rob Gronkowski to chip on Khalil Mack throughout the game. The Patriots are notorious for trying to isolate an opponent’s best threat, and to go out of their way to minimize this threat — something they try to do on offense, as well as on defense. Mack is dealing with some injuries, but he is almost certain to play. If Mack is out this week, of course, all players will see a boost.

BEARS RUN OFFENSE

Only six teams have run the ball more frequently than the Bears, and as long as this game remains close, they are sure to stick with this approach — which has led to Jordan Howard seeing touch counts on the year of 20 // 17 // 26 // 11 // 14. For upside-hunters, it is concerning that Howard’s receptions have slid steadily downward throughout the season, going 5 // 4 // 2 // 0 // 0. After averaging over 21 pass routes per game through the first three weeks, he has averaged only 12 pass routes per game in two games since the bye — with Tarik Cohen seeing 17 targets and going a monstrous 14-211-1 through the air during this stretch. As noted last week: there is a chance this usage for Cohen is game plan specific — but as with last week, this is another matchup that sets up well for Cohen, against the Patriots’ slow, coverage-liability linebackers. New England has been beatable both on the ground and through the air with running backs, but as with last year, they tighten up near the end zone, and have allowed only one running back rushing touchdown on the year. Howard has yet to top 82 rushing yards in a game, so without receptions and touchdowns, he’ll have a tough time hitting for upside.

On the other hand, only four teams have allowed more receiving yards to running backs, with Kareem Hunt, Nyheim Hines, and Corey Grant used in a similar manner against the Patriots to how the Bears like to use Cohen. If Cohen is featured again, the Patriots really don’t have an answer for him.

BEARS PASS OFFENSE

The Patriots have traditionally been less interested in applying pressure on opponents between the 20s — instead opting to force opponents to move the field steadily without any big plays, followed up with strong red zone defense. New England does not quite have their red zone legs under them, as they rank 13th in red zone touchdown rate allowed — with nine touchdowns allowed to wide receivers on the year — but they have been solid against the big play, allowing fewer pass plays of 20+ yards than all but eight other teams.

The Patriots play as much man coverage as any team in football — leading to an average aDOT, an average catch rate, and average yards after the catch.

Beating this defense is all about crossing routes — using speed to move across the field, and to avoid the safety play of Devin McCourty over the middle. This is how Tyreek Hill, Chester Rogers, Eric Ebron, Kenny Stills, Kenny Golladay, Dede Westbrook, and DeAndre Hopkins have all been used against New England this year, and when the Bears have used this approach this year, it is Taylor Gabriel and Anthony Miller they have leaned on. Look for the Bears to use Gabriel’s speed on deep crossers — giving him an opportunity to either outrun his defender, or to pull the safety over with him and leave the seam open for Cohen. Gabriel has target counts on the year of 5 // 7 // 10 // 7 // 5, and another five to seven looks is a reasonable expectation here — giving him iffy floor, but big ceiling. If rostering Gabriel, hope for the Patriots to jump out to a lead, and for the Bears to ramp up usage on their speedy wideout.

Miller played 41 snaps last week off the bye, but ran only 21 pass routes. He has yet to top five targets in a game and is primarily used underneath, but he does have a respectable two targets inside the 10-yard-line, tied with Allen Robinson.

Robinson has taken a backseat to Gabriel lately, with target counts of 7 // 4 // 6 over his last three games, compared to 10 // 7 // 5 for Gabriel. Robinson will have a chance to make some nice contested catches in this one, and he’ll post a strong game if he hauls in a touchdown, but his skill set doesn’t play as well in this matchup as that of his speedy teammate.

Trey Burton has target counts on the year of 6 // 4 // 5 // 4 // 4, and he has topped 55 yards only once. He’ll likely need a touchdown to be worth a spot on your roster.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

I expected James White and Tarik Cohen to both stand out to me in this game, but after digging into the research, White is less appealing to me, as a guy who will almost certainly need another score (or two) to support his rising price tag. Cohen, however, is a strong play in this spot as a salary-saver with big upside, and he’s in play on half-PPR FanDuel as well for his yardage upside. A bet on Cohen is a bet on his usage remaining where it’s been the last couple weeks — but given the fact that “guesswork” is part of almost any play down in his price range (and given that Cohen has week-winning upside), I’ll feel good about this play myself. This comfort is heightened by the fact that everything lines up for Cohen to be featured again.

I also like Josh Gordon in this spot, as his price (11.2% of the cap on DraftKings, 11.17% on FanDuel, and 10.2% on FantasyDraft) does not reflect his apparent role in this offense. While the Patriots are known for tricking us with their usage from time to time, it appears that Gordon’s expanded role is here to stay — and if he’s on the field, he’ll be the best way to attack this Bears defense.

Hogan is an interesting deep-tourney play, while Gronk has the talent to pop off even in a tough matchup — giving him his typical upside, to go with the lower-than-expected floor he has shown this season. Edelman will need a touchdown or two to justify a spot, while Sony Michel has a difficult draw against the stout Bears run defense.

On the other side, Howard, Robinson, and Burton won’t make the cut for me. Any of them “could” have a good game, but there are plays on the slate that are likelier to hit.

Quarterback is shaping up to be thin this week on the main slate, putting Tom Brady in play. Realistically, a tourney shot could be taken on Mitchell Trubisky as well, as the Patriots have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, and Trubisky could be asked to open things up a bit if the Patriots jump out to a lead.

SATURDAY EVENING UPDATE // Full “Updates” List

Rob Gronkowski did not travel with the Patriots, and he is doubtful for the game against the Bears. With so many weapons on the Patriots, this doesn’t filter targets to any one player (and realistically, Gronk has been seeing only a handful of targets each game), but this should provide a small boost to “pass catchers” in general, with no clear idea available of who will profit the most individually. The best matchups remain on the outside, where Josh Gordon plays heavily, and where Edelman/Hogan will split time. Dwayne Allen will fill in at tight end.


Kickoff Sunday, Oct 21st 4:05pm Eastern

Saints (
23.25) at

Ravens (
25.75)

Over/Under 49.0

Tweet
Notes

Key Matchups
Saints Run D
25th DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
1st DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Saints Pass D
11th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
4th DVOA/4th Yards per pass
Ravens Run D
7th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O
13th DVOA/31st Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Saints Pass O
20th DVOA/22nd Yards per pass

SAINTS // RAVENS OVERVIEW

Sunday afternoon brings us a marquee matchup between a 4-1 Saints team and a 4-2 Ravens team — with the Ravens pulling respect from Vegas as early-week 2.5 point favorites at home. Atypically, the Ravens are the fast-paced team in this matchup, as they rank second in the league in pace of play early on, while the Saints rank down at 25th. Each team ranks middle of the pack in pass play rate, and each team ranks top nine in yards per game (9th :: Baltimore // 3rd :: New Orleans). The Saints have scored the most points per game in the NFL, while Baltimore ranks 12th.

The key matchup here will be the Saints’ offense against the Ravens’ defense, as New Orleans ranks first in the league in drive success rate, while the Ravens have allowed the lowest drive success rate in the NFL. Six weeks into the season, Baltimore has been this year’s Jaguars, with the fewest yards allowed per game (270.8 — with the next-best team way behind them at 306.5) and the fewest points allowed per game (12.8 — far ahead of the second-place team at 17.2). This is the toughest test yet for the Ravens, but this is a no-joke unit.

SAINTS PASS OFFENSE

Let’s get this out of the way at the top: A difficult matchup lowers floor, and it lowers the chances of a player hitting his ceiling — but a difficult matchup does not eliminate ceiling altogether. We say that from time to time, but since we are talking about the extraordinary upside of Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, and the rest of this Saints offense, that is worth mentioning at the top. Upside remains on these guys — but our exploration of this matchup will allow us to get a feel for how likely this upside is to hit, and for how much lower than normal the floor becomes.

Baltimore is playing extremely tight coverage — leading to the lowest catch rate in the league, and to the eighth-lowest YAC per reception mark, an interesting setup for a guy in Thomas who has a scary-low aDOT for his price (7.3 — in the same range as guys like Randall Cobb, Jarius Wright, and Cole Beasley), and who needs to post high efficiency on high target counts in order to justify his salary. In Week 4, it took Antonio Brown 11 targets to go 5-62-1 against Baltimore, and it took JuJu Smith-Schuster 11 targets to go 4-60-0. Demaryius Thomas posted 63 yards against the Ravens in Week 2, while Emmanuel Sanders went for 38 yards. The best hope for Thomas appears to be something in line with the 6-91-1 line Tyler Boyd put up in this matchup in Week 2, or the 5-69-3 line that A.J. Green smoked Baltimore with that same week (on nine targets). Obviously, touchdowns will be the biggest key in this spot, as yardage upside and catch volume will be iffy propositions.

Only eight teams have allowed fewer pass plays of 20+ yards than the Ravens, and they are one of only two teams in the NFL that has not yet allowed a pass play of 40+ yards, creating a tough situation for whichever guy steps into the lid-lifter role in this offense (Ted Ginn missed practice on Wednesday, after missing the game a couple weeks ago, which could open the door for Tre’Quan Smith to take over this role again).

Cameron Meredith also missed practice on Wednesday, and he has yet to top five targets in a game. If he plays, he’ll be the fourth or fifth option most passing plays.

One of the best ways for the Saints to move the ball will be with Benjamin Watson, as Baltimore has allowed the ninth-most receptions and the 11th-most yards to the tight end position, in spite of having played three teams (Bills, Broncos, and Titans) that hardly use the tight end. Watson has slim target counts on the year (4 // 5 // 6 // 3 // 4).

SAINTS RUN OFFENSE

It is difficult to take too much away from the Saints’ game against the Redskins a couple weeks back, as Brees’ 29 pass attempts (a season low) came with New Orleans winning 43-19. Furthermore, Brees notched 362 yards and three touchdowns on those limited opportunities, so it’s not as if he was leaving a ton on the table. From a bigger-picture perspective, however, it is certainly noteworthy that the Saints ranked 20th in pass play rate last year with Mark Ingram in the fold, and they have been trending back toward that mark in recent weeks. Ingram played 55% of the Saints’ snaps in his first game back, touching the ball 18 times and seeing a massive three carries inside the five-yard-line (which he turned into two touchdowns). This offseason, there seemed to be a lot of “analysis based on hopefulness” that stated Alvin Kamara would see a much bigger role this year while Ingram would take a backseat, but realistically, this offense functions best when both guys are involved. As such, we should expect each guy to see ebbs and flows from week to week. Most weeks last season, both guys performed well — but there were some weeks in which one guy hit at the cost of the other. There are some floor concerns on each guy — as evidenced by Kamara’s nine touches for 39 yards in Week 5.

Only three teams have allowed fewer receptions to running backs than the Ravens, and they have yet to allow a receiving touchdown to backs, with only one rushing touchdown allowed as well. This is a difficult setup for both guys in this split backfield. Touchdowns will be important for either guy to have a shot at hitting — though it does seem likely that Kamara will see a few extra looks through the air as the Saints look for ways to poke holes in this defense, giving him an opportunity to rack up some points through receptions. Kamara will still see usage close to the goal line as well, so either guy has a shot at finding his way into the end zone this week.

RAVENS PASS OFFENSE

Baltimore ranks all the way down at 26th in yards per pass attempt on offense, but because they are playing at the second-fastest pace in the NFL and are running the most plays per game in the league, they have managed to rack up the ninth most passing yards per game. This week, they will take on a New Orleans team that ranks 30th in passing yards allowed per game, with the third-highest completion rate allowed in the league.

Digging in a bit deeper: New Orleans is allowing high floors for pass catchers, with “completed passes” so easy to come by, but upside has been thinner on wide receivers than most have probably realized. Since getting pasted by DeSean Jackson (146 yards) and Mike Evans (147 yards) in Week 1, New Orleans has allowed only one other 100-yard game (146 yards to Calvin Ridley, fueled by a busted coverage that turned into a 75-yard catch and run), while holding Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard, and Julio Jones below that mark.

Taking away the Week 1 mirage and the busted play to Ridley, the best way to beat this team has been on intermediate drag routes, out routes, comebacks, and curls — which fits perfectly with the route tree of both Michael Crabtree and Willie Snead. As you have probably noticed, I’ve been a fan of Snead lately (he quietly has target counts on the year of 6 // 8 // 5 // 7 // 7 // 10, with an aDOT of 8.6), and it was refreshing last week to see solid ownership on Crabtree in the $3k Milly Maker, as Crabtree also has a legitimate role in this offense (target counts on the year of 6 // 10 // 10 // 8 // 12 // 9, with an aDOT of 9.8). Neither guy is likely to top 100 yards, but each guy still carries a strong floor and ceiling for his price. Crabtree has six red zone targets and three looks inside the 10-yard-line, compared to only two red zone targets and zero looks inside the 10 for Snead.

The leader on this team is the NFL’s leader in average depth of target, John Brown. Brown has bookend games right now of four targets in Week 1 and three targets in Week 6, but he posted target counts of 10 // 9 // 7 // 14 in the games in between. He also has three targets inside the 10-yard-line. He has the toughest draw in this spot against Marshon Lattimore, who has regained form lately, allowing 120 total receiving yards across his last four games, after allowing 115 yards in Week 1 alone. The Ravens have shown that they are going to take downfield shots with JB no matter what, so the upside remains; but his chances of hitting for big plays in this spot are lowered.

Behind these guys, the Ravens continue to run a messy timeshare at tight end. The receivers are the bankable bets for this team moving the ball through the air.

RAVENS RUN OFFENSE

Ravens running backs have not been reliably playable all season, with Alex Collins averaging only 3.6 yards per carry and 1.5 receptions per game, and with Javorius Allen averaging 2.8 yards per carry and dropping to four touches last week. New Orleans has been nails against the run this year, ranking first in fewest yards allowed per carry and first in fewest rushing yards allowed per game. New Orleans has also been above-average stopping running backs out of the backfield, allowing the eighth-fewest receptions to the position.

If going here, your best bet is to hope for a multi-touchdown game from Alex Collins, who regained his red zone role last week. You could also create a justification for Allen by betting on a game flow in which the Saints jump out to a lead and the Ravens have to keep Allen and his pass-catching role on the field in catch-up mode. Neither is the likeliest scenario.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

I’ll be staying away from the Saints’ passing attack, as the best options are Michael Thomas (bet on talent and usage) and Ben Watson (bet on the best matchup for this offense). Thomas’ price is too high for me to want to go there in a matchup like this (it won’t be shocking if he posts a solid game, but we should be hunting for week-winning scores in his price range), while Watson falls far shy of Njoku, who is the bar against which other tight ends should be measured this week.

I won’t spend up on Kamara or bet on the carries for Ingram — though I do love where Ingram’s price sits right now, and I’ll be pulling for a poor game from him in the hopes that his price remains low moving forward.

On the Ravens’ side, the backfield is hands-off, but there are some interesting things to consider in the passing attack, with Michael Crabtree and Willie Snead each carrying solid floor in this game, and with Crabtree’s red zone role even giving him a bit of ceiling. John Brown also carries big upside — though his chances of hitting are a bit lower in this spot.


Kickoff Sunday, Oct 21st 4:25pm Eastern

Cowboys (
21) at

WFT (
19.5)

Over/Under 40.5

Tweet
Notes

Key Matchups
Cowboys Run D
9th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
Commanders Run O
16th DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Cowboys Pass D
6th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per pass
Commanders Pass O
27th DVOA/27th Yards per pass
Commanders Run D
16th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Cowboys Run O
15th DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Commanders Pass D
32nd DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
Cowboys Pass O
11th DVOA/14th Yards per pass

COWBOYS // REDSKINS OVERVIEW

While the end of the season will likely find the Eagles outpacing these other AFC East squads, this division is wide open at the moment, and the result of this rivalry matchup will impact optics over the next few weeks, as Washington enters this game at 3-2, and Dallas enters at 3-3.

Unsurprisingly, this game has been given an Over/Under of only 41.5, with Dallas allowing the second-fewest points per game in the NFL, and with Washington allowing the eighth-fewest. Neither team has been dominant on offense, as they rank 25th (Washington) and 29th (Dallas) in yards per game, while ranking 24th (Washington) and 25th (Dallas) in points per game. That’s even with Washington notching a 31-point game a few weeks ago against the Packers, and with Dallas throwing up a 40-burger last week.

You also have to scroll to the bottom of the rankings to find these two in pace of play, with Washington at 22nd and Dallas at 29th. To further scream “conservative,” Washington ranks 24th in pass play rate and Dallas ranks 29th, while neither team challenges opponents downfield through the air. This shapes up as a slug-fest, with each team “passing to set up the run,” and with neither team in great shape to do a whole lot through the air.

COWBOYS PASS OFFENSE

The Cardinals are the only team in the NFL allowing a lower average depth of target than the Redskins, and with an average catch rate and average YAC per reception marks allowed, this team ranks a healthy sixth in fewest yards allowed per pass attempt. On the other side of this matchup, Dallas ranks 28th in yards per pass attempt, and Dak Prescott has topped 208 passing yards only once this season (255 yards against Detroit). The Cowboys are keeping a lid on volume for Dak, and he has yet to complete even 20 passes in a game.

Washington has been especially stingy against wide receivers, allowing the second-fewest receptions and the third-fewest yards to the position.

If for some reason you are feeling absolutely set on rostering a pass catcher against this stingy unit, your best bet would obviously be Cole Beasley. His Week 6 blowup is about as fluky as things can get, but he does see around five targets most weeks, and he does have five targets in the red zone.

Michael Gallup (mercifully) saw an 80.8% snap rate last week, as the Cowboys look to get something going through the air. Gallup is adjusting slowly to the NFL game, and he has maxed out at two catches (with only seven receptions on the season in all). He may be able to make a box score impact deeper into the season, and he is worth keeping an eye on as we move forward.

COWBOYS RUN OFFENSE

By playing slowly and doing a great job sustaining drives on offense, Washington is managing to allow the fifth-fewest opponent plays per game, which is being felt by opposing running backs, as this is leading to the Redskins facing only 16.4 running back rush attempts per game. The Redskins’ offense has a solid setup for sustaining drives once again — making play volume the one potential concern for Ezekiel Elliott, who otherwise has an excellent matchup on tap.

Six weeks into the season, the Redskins are allowing 4.23 yards per carry to running backs, and they rank 30th in DVOA against the run and 28th in adjusted line yards. With sticky coverage on wide receivers, Washington is also filtering an above-average number of targets to running backs — facing 8.8 targets per game to the position.

Over the last two weeks, Zeke has played 83.7% of the Cowboys’ snaps, and he has touch counts on the year of 18 // 22 // 19 // 29 // 27 // 25. The only things that can really cause Zeke to fail are lack of volume and lack of red zone opportunities (Dallas ranks 24th in red zone scoring attempts per game — but if they are able to reach the red zone, they have a great setup vs an opponent that ranks 26th in red zone touchdown rate allowed).

REDSKINS PASS OFFENSE

Speaking of volume: only four teams in the NFL have faced fewer pass attempts per game than the Cowboys, which has led to Dallas allowing the eighth-fewest passing yards per game. Washington has been well below-average in passing attempts per game as well, and only eight teams have fewer passing yards per game.

When Washington does take to the air, they continue to focus on short and intermediate passes, with Alex Smith sitting on an average intended air yards of only 7.3. When Smith pushes the ball to the intermediate levels, Paul Richardson has been his primary guy, with target counts on the year of 6 // 6 // 2 // 5 // 5, and with a respectable aDOT on these looks of 12.0. As noted last week when the Jags took on the Cowboys: it’s not optimal to target receivers against this defense (less due to matchup, and more simply due to volume concerns), but if targeting a pass catcher against them, your best bet is guys who can run crossing routes and find openings while moving through this zone. Dallas allows below-average aDOT and YAC per reception marks, but only two teams are allowing a higher catch rate. Richardson is the guy likeliest to be moving through this zone on the sort of routes that can provide upside.

Underneath, Jamison Crowder will soak up some targets if he returns to the field (he has exactly four targets in three of four games), while Vernon Davis and Maurice Harris will see elevated snaps if Crowder is out. Last week, Davis played 51.4% of the snaps and hauled in a season-high three catches for 48 yards and a touchdown. Harris played a quiet 44 out of 70 snaps, turning four targets into three catches for 13 yards.

Even with Crowder and Chris Thompson off the field last week, Josh Doctson continued to underperform — turning six targets into only three catches for 20 yards. Doctson has yet to top 37 receiving yards on the year.

This group rounds out with Jordan Reed, who has target counts on the year of 5 // 8 // 7 // 2 // 9, though almost all of these targets have come within about three to seven yards of the line of scrimmage, making it difficult for him to pop off for the big games we should be getting from a guy this good.

REDSKINS RUN OFFENSE

I’m honestly a bit surprised that Vegas gave us a line on this game without knowing whether or not Chris Thompson will play, as the complexion of this game changes entirely depending on whether or not he is on the field. The Cowboys rank second in the NFL in yards allowed per carry and fifth in DVOA against the run, and if Thompson is out, Washington’s run-heavy approach could stall out a few times early — creating a few extra opportunities for Zeke throughout the first half, while also creating more opportunities on this side of the ball for targets to flow to Richardson and Jordan Reed (a season-high nine targets last week), as Smith will be without his security blanket. If Thompson plays, on the other hand, he should see heavy work against a Dallas team that has allowed the fourth most running back receptions in the NFL. Thompson would also make it easier for Washington to keep drives going — which would reintroduce the “volume” concerns on the Dallas offense. Thompson has target counts on the year of 7 // 14 // 2 // 8 — with the two-target game coming in a game the Redskins controlled from start to finish, an unlikely scenario this week.

If Thompson misses, Adrian Peterson will lead the way in a difficult matchup. His limited role in the pass game makes him a “touchdown and yardage” option.

With Thompson on the sidelines last week, Kapri Bibbs played 37.1% of Washington’s snaps, turning three touches into 17 yards.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

While research on the Vikings/Jets game confirmed Thielen as a lock-and-load option for me this week, the same cannot quite be said for Zeke. Given the state of this slate, he’s still likely to turn into a top three play in terms of raw projections, but there are some concerns here regarding volume, against a Washington team that does a good job slowing down the game, sustaining drives, and limiting opponent volume. With this also being the approach that Dallas favors, this game could fly by, with plays limited on either side. Zeke’s floor remains intact no matter what — as an ultra-talented back with a large snap rate and plenty of guaranteed touches in a great matchup — and he can hit for ceiling even if he gets stuck on around 19 to 21 touches. But his likelihood of reaching ceiling will be quite a bit higher if he’s able to climb up to 25 to 27 touches. If rostering him, hope the Dallas defense is able to shut down some of these slow-paced Redskins drives quickly, in order to create extra opportunity for Zeke.

I won’t have interest in any other pieces on the Cowboys, and I won’t have interest in Adrian Peterson, Alex Smith, or Josh Doctson on the other side, but Jordan Reed will retain solid floor if Thompson is out again this week, and his talent gives him some ceiling, while Paul Richardson is surprisingly interesting as a guy who should see around five to six targets, with most of these looks coming more than 10 yards downfield. As a salary-saver on DraftKings, he’s an interesting pivot in tourneys off someone like Jermaine Kearse. Kearse is likelier to hit, but Richardson isn’t too far behind him, and the ownership gap will likely be massive — creating an opportunity where you could soak up a nice tourney edge if Richardson hits and Kearse disappoints.

If Thompson plays, Reed and Richardson will likely come off the table for me, but Thompson will become intriguing for his likely seven to 10 targets. Game flow is always a scary variable when rostering a guy like Thompson, but the matchup tilts in his favor, and he is likely to see a decent chunk of work if healthy.

FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE // Full “Updates” List

Paul Richardson is doubtful for the Redskins, which leaves them with very little to work with. The safest bet here is to simply assume the Washington offense struggles (while slowing down the game as much as possible in order to keep Dallas from creating too much separation) — but if chasing here, it’s a good bet that Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson (expected to play) both see a rise in workload. Each carries upside in tourneys.


Kickoff Sunday, Oct 21st 4:25pm Eastern

Rams (
31.75) at

49ers (
21.25)

Over/Under 53.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Rams Run D
20th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
2nd DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Rams Pass D
22nd DVOA/27th Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
1st DVOA/1st Yards per pass
49ers Run D
15th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per carry
Rams Run O
7th DVOA/8th Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
4th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Rams Pass O
10th DVOA/3rd Yards per pass

RAMS // 49ERS OVERVIEW

The Rams and 49ers are moving in opposite directions in the NFC West, with the Rams sitting atop the division at 6-0, and the 49ers struggling at the bottom with a 1-5 record. This is a massive mismatch, between a Rams team that ranks third in the NFL in points per game (first in yards per game) and a 49ers defense that has allowed more points per game than 28 teams.

The Rams have played fast during the first half of games (sixth in first half pace), but they rank 19th in overall pace of play, as they are playing at the fourth-slowest pace in the second half — taking the foot off the gas each week after jumping out to a lead. The 49ers rank 11th in pace of play.

Unsurprisingly, the Rams have been installed as early 10.5 point favorites, in spite of this game being played in Santa Clara. We are likeliest to see the Rams climb to an early lead before easing up in the second half — which would create the typical game flow we are used to with this team: run-heavy football (only three teams have run the ball more frequently than the Rams), with opponents attempting to play catch-up in the second half of games. The Rams have allowed the fewest opponent plays per game.

RAMS PASS OFFENSE

The 49ers’s pass defense has drawn the worst possible schedule to begin the year, with games already against the Packers, the Chargers, the Chiefs, the Lions, and the Vikings, which has led to San Francisco allowing the eighth-most passing yards per game. The 49ers have allowed 14 touchdowns while notching only one interception. Only six teams are allowing a deeper aDOT than San Francisco, and only two teams are allowing more YAC per reception. The 49ers are making up for all this by allowing one of the lowest catch rates in the league — but when passes connect, the upside is there.

The Rams will be playing without Cooper Kupp this week (MCL), which leaves behind over eight targets per game (including a team-leading 11 red zone targets and seven targets inside the 10). Todd Gurley should see a small bump in red zone usage (he already ranks seventh in the NFL in red zone targets and first — by a mile — in red zone carries), while Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks should see a slight bump in targets.

When Kupp left last week’s game, Cooks continued to see heavy usage on the perimeter, while Woods (who already runs a fair number of snaps out of the slot) bumped inside more frequently. With Kupp out of action, Woods should still see his typical downfield looks — but he will also soak up a couple extra short/intermediate looks, giving his already-high floor a small boost. Cooks should not see his role change much, outside of the small potential target boost.

Each of Woods and Cooks sets up great in this spot, as both guys will run hardly any routes at Richard Sherman (Sherman has allowed only two receptions on 10 targets into his coverage this year), with Woods running the short and intermediate routes that have been giving San Francisco fits away from Sherman, and with Cooks running the deep routes that have also been a problem for this team. Every team that has faced San Francisco so far has essentially run their best receivers on routes toward the middle and left side of the field, while leaving the right side alone — creating a great setup for Woods and Cooks to continue their strong starts to the year. Woods has the higher floor in this spot, while each guy carries a strong ceiling.

Josh Reynolds will step into a big snap share in this offense, though we should have some concerns that the Rams will stick him on Sherman’s side of the field for most of the game to occupy the 49ers’ best corner. While any player with a significant role in this offense is worth a look, Reynolds is not a game-changing talent, and he’ll be fourth in line for targets.

Tight ends Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee figure to see a small bump in looks as well. Each will be tough to trust for any sort of guaranteed floor or major upside.

RAMS RUN OFFENSE

San Francisco is solid against the run, ranking 10th in yards allowed per carry and 12th in adjusted line yards, but it would take a lot more than a “solid run defense” to bump down expectations for Gurley, who has the most bankable role in the NFL, with touch counts on the year of 23 // 22 // 28 // 21 // 26 // 30, and with an extraordinary 32 touches in the red zone (Alvin Kamara is second in the NFL with 26 touches; no one else in the league has more than 16 red zone touches). The 49ers have allowed the seventh-most receptions to running backs, and the absence of Kupp further solidifies Gurley’s usage in this spot. As always: Gurley has the highest raw projection on the slate. Same as last week (and the week before…and the week before), he’s the guy to play if you can fit him without sacrificing too much in other spots.

49ERS PASS OFFENSE

Even in the absence of Aqib Talib, the Rams have forced the third-lowest average depth of target in the NFL, while also ranking ninth in YAC allowed per reception. In all, L.A. is shaving 11.6% off the league-average aDOT, while shaving 6.1% off the league-average YAC per reception. Only four teams have allowed fewer receptions to wide receivers than the Rams. Two of those four teams have already had their bye. These numbers have come in spite of the 6-0 Rams constantly playing with a lead and facing a middling number of pass attempts on the year. The Rams rank seventh in time of possession, and they are allowing the fewest opponent plays per game.

C.J. Beathard posted a nice stat line last week against the Packers, though he got there by attempting only six passes more than 10 yards downfield (with 17 passes coming under 10 yards — including six passes behind the line of scrimmage). It was great to see Beathard taking a couple shots, but of his two attempts that traveled more than 20 yards, one was a long touchdown to Marquise Goodwin, and the other was an interception. (In Week 5 against Arizona, Beathard attempted three passes more than 20 yards downfield — out of 54 attempts in all; these three passes turned into one incompletion and two interceptions. That week, 47 of his 54 pass attempts traveled 10 or fewer yards.) Goodwin should see another two or three downfield looks this week — with upside if he connects, and with ultra-low floor if the bombs aren’t falling into the bucket.

With a dink-and-dunk approach, YAC is important for upside, making it notable that Pierre Garcon has an expected YAC per reception of only 5.1.

George Kittle, on the other hand, ranks second in the NFL in YAC per reception, and first in the NFL in xYAC/R. Kittle has target counts on the year of 9 // 4 // 7 // 8 // 7 // 6. The Rams have allowed the eighth-most receptions and the eighth-most yards to the tight end position — though they are one of only five teams that has not yet allowed a touchdown to the position.

Behind these pieces, Kendrick Bourne has seen target counts across the 49ers’ last three games of 4 // 7 // 3. He has yet to top 34 yards on the season. He’ll take a backseat this week if Trent Taylor is able to make his way back onto the field

49ERS RUN OFFENSE

Let’s start with this:

Most of us have probably not rostered Matt Breida or Alfred Morris a single time this year, so we shouldn’t pretend that Raheem Mostert suddenly becomes a top play just because he stole all of Alf’s snaps last week. Furthermore, the Rams have faced the second-fewest rush attempts per game. Further-furthermore, Kyle Shanahan had this to say about Mostert’s Week 6 usage (via 49ers.com):

“No, I don’t think it was a permanent change. It was just what we thought was best for that game. Raheem got a ton of reps all week because Breida didn’t practice. So we knew Raheem was going to play in the game regardless. We didn’t know how long Breida would go. Breida started the game. I think we put Raheem in for his first carry on the fifth play and he ran well. I think it was four yards before contact, then he got about five more after it. So we just kept him in there. He was running well.”

Mostert did run well (which is more than can be said of Alf so far this year), so there is a chance his usage sticks. But this is no guarantee — and the role we are talking about yields 12 to 14 carries and limited pass game involvement. For whatever you feel it’s worth: the Rams’ run defense is most attackable right up the middle, which would seem to favor Alf over Mostert.

Regardless of which back grabs that half of the timeshare, Breida should continue to be involved, as he has seen exactly 12 to 14 touches in five of six games this year. Breida is averaging a monstrous 6.8 yards per carry, giving him some upside to go with his thin floor.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

On the 49ers’ side of the ball, I am going to have interest in George Kittle for solid target share and his big YAC upside, but I don’t expect I will end up being drawn toward anyone else on this team.

The Rams are far more appealing, with Woods and Gurley popping off the page, and with Brandin Cooks carrying a lower floor than Woods, but carrying just as much upside. I also like Jared Goff as the quarterback of the team with the highest Vegas-Implied total on the slate. Blowout concerns introduce something to keep in mind, but quarterback is a ragtag position on the main slate this week for DraftKings and FanDuel, and Goff is as likely as anyone to post the top score at the position.

The Rams’ defense is also interesting, as Beathard can be had for sacks, and he’s good for a couple turnovers per game. This isn’t a standout play, but it at least belongs on my mid-week list, especially as DST appears to be a thin position this week.


Kickoff Sunday, Oct 21st 8:20pm Eastern

Bengals (
26.5) at

Chiefs (
32)

Over/Under 58.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bengals Run D
28th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O
11th DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D
21st DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
Chiefs Pass O
6th DVOA/19th Yards per pass
Chiefs Run D
27th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O
22nd DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D
5th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Bengals Pass O
14th DVOA/26th Yards per pass

BENGALS // CHIEFS OVERVIEW

From the perspective of a fan, it’s refreshing that this game is being given the prime time slot, as NBC would typically have played to the large television audiences of the Cowboys and Redskins by flexing that game into this space — but from a DFS perspective, it’s too bad that this game will be missing from the main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. These are the sorts of games we lost when DK and FD pulled the Sunday night game from their main slate last season, so we’ll have to make do without it. In the Showdown slates, of course, there is plenty to like here — and all of us who are playing the One Week Season Survivor Contest on FantasyDraft will be able to dip into this game as well.

This game has been given a scintillating Over/Under of 58.5, with the Chiefs (second in points per game, at 35.8) installed as a 5.5 point favorite over the Bengals (sixth in points per game, at 29.0). Each defense ranks bottom 10 in points allowed per game, and there is room for the Over/Under to grow as the week moves along. The Vegas-implied total for each team is lower than each team’s season-long average.

Kansas City ranks second in drive success rate, and Cincinnati ranks fourth. Only one team has allowed a higher drive success rate than the Chiefs, and only seven teams have allowed a higher drive success rate than the Bengals.

BENGALS PASS OFFENSE

Only three teams in the NFL have allowed a deeper average depth of target than the Chiefs through the early portions of the year, and only five teams have allowed a higher YAC per reception rate. Paired with an average catch rate allowed, this adds up to the Chiefs allowing the seventh most yards per pass attempt, while no team has faced more pass attempts this season. (The Bengals have faced the second most pass attempts on the year.)

A.J. Green has been the 1A option in this passing attack, with target counts on the year of 8 // 9 // 8 // 8 // 10 // 12, while seeing 37.4% of the team’s air yards (eighth in the NFL), with an aDOT of 12.5. Green has a massive 12 red zone targets, with five targets inside the 10-yard-line.

Behind Green (or alongside Green), Tyler Boyd has been the 1B, with target counts of 5 // 9 // 7 // 15 // 7 // 9, while seeing 26.7% of the team’s air yards, on an aDOT of 9.5. Boyd has seven targets inside the 20 and one target inside the 10. So far, he is a perfect seven for seven on his red zone looks — leading to three red zone touchdowns (the same number as Green). The Chiefs have allowed the most passing plays of 20+ yards, the fourth-most wide receiver receptions, and the ninth-most wide receiver yards.

These two are dominating looks in this offense, but John Ross appears likely to return this week, which could lead to a few downfield looks for him. Ross has caught only seven of his 15 targets on the year, for 79 yards.

As we began to expect during the second half of last week, C.J. Uzomah was schemed extra targets in a Week 6 matchup against a Steelers team that bleeds targets to tight ends, and he enters a similar spot this week against a Chiefs team that has allowed the fourth-most receptions to the position, with more yards allowed to tight ends than any other team in the league. Uzomah has skills as a pass catcher, and in what should be a high-volume affair, he should be in line for a respectable number of looks once again.

BENGALS RUN OFFENSE

Because the Chiefs have been so bad against the pass (and because the Chiefs’ offense is so dominant — leading to opponents having to turn to the air), it can go overlooked that this team has also allowed the second-most yards per carry in the NFL, behind only Denver. As noted last week: the Chiefs have incredibly allowed a long run of only 26 yards, which emphasizes just how consistently opponents have been able to move the ball on the ground, as this massive YPC mark has come without any monster plays to artificially boost it.

Through four games, Joe Mixon has touch counts of 22 // 22 // 25 // 15. The one realistic concern here is that Mixon could see his volume trickle down if the Chiefs jump out to a big lead early — but even with that concern, he remains involved in the pass game (he has a pair of seven target games already), and he ranks ninth in the NFL in carries inside the 10, in spite of missing two games. Mixon has played 73.6% of the snaps the last two weeks, and if this game were on the main slate, he would carry the number two raw point expectation among backs, behind only Gurley. The Chiefs have also allowed the second-most receptions in the league to running backs, and they have faced an average of 20.3 rush attempts per game — enough for Mixon to do plenty of damage.

CHIEFS PASS OFFENSE

The Bengals have ranked middle of the pack in yards allowed per pass attempt on the strength of solid tackling after the catch, but the Chiefs are the only team that has faced more pass attempts, and this has led to Cincy allowing the seventh-most wide receiver yards and the seventh-most wide receiver receptions in the league.

Kenny Stills and John Brown posted solid games against the Bengals with usage similar to what Tyreek Hill will see this week, creating optimism for upside-hunters. Hill’s floor is always a bit low for the price, but as we mention in this space every week: he genuinely has the upside to post the highest score on the entire slate — a range he has hit twice already, only six games into the season.

If the Bengals have been bad against wide receivers, they have been awful against tight ends, allowing the second-most receptions and the seventh-most yards to the position, in spite of only one game against a team (Indy in Week 1) that truly features the position. The Patriots once again made it a priority last week to stop Travis Kelce (and once again paid the price with a monster game from Hill), but Kelce still notched 61 yards through the air, and he was coming off a stretch of three 100-yard games in four opportunities. He should approach double-digit targets in this one. He posted double-digit looks in three consecutive games before facing the Jags and the Kelce-focused Patriots.

Kelce and Hill are hogging most of the upside in this passing attack, with Sammy Watkins operating primarily underneath (an aDOT of only 7.4). Watkins will have his big games this year, though they will be difficult to see coming — making him a “guess and hope” play in this high-powered offense. The same goes for Chris Conley, who continues to soak up heavy snaps, but who has seen target counts ranging from one to six — with no games yet above 21 yards receiving. He does have a pair of touchdowns on the season.

CHIEFS RUN OFFENSE

Only eight teams have allowed more yards per carry than the Bengals, and as noted last week, the way the Bengals are getting hammered on the scoreboard is by allowing teams to march the length of the field before closing out drives in the red zone — a good setup for running backs who get red zone usage. Last week, it was James Conner and his 14 carries inside the 10 (third in the NFL). This week, it’s Kareem Hunt and his 13 carries inside the 10.

Hunt has continued to see spotty pass game usage (four games this year of two or fewer targets), but he saw six targets in a track meet with the Patriots last week (a game in which his carries took a step back), and he has 18 or more touches in four of his last five games. Expect another 18 to 25 touches in this spot, giving Hunt plenty of space to show his upside against a Bengals run defense that has been attackable all year.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Floor rankings in the Showdown slate for me go :: Mahomes // Dalton // Mixon // Kelce // Green // Boyd // Hill // Hunt // Watkins // Uzomah — with every one of these guys genuinely able to have a case made as a strong play. Guys like Chris Conley and John Ross can also be kept in mind if multi-entering.

Ceiling rankings really aren’t that different, as all of Mixon // Kelce // Green // Boyd // Hill // Hunt have legitimate 22-point FanDuel upside and 30-point DraftKings upside, while even Watkins and Uzomah could bust out for genuine starting-caliber scores. Obviously, Hill moves to the top of the list when talking ceiling.

On FantasyDraft, I’ll likely build a team that looks nothing like my DraftKings roster, in order to account for all the great plays in this game. While I don’t build my tiers until I read through the NFL Edge on Thursday afternoon (writing this article is such an intense stretch of focus, research, and writing over two and a half days with very little sleep, I typically don’t retain much of this information until I go back and read the article myself), I expect that Mixon, Green, Boyd, Kelce, and Hunt will make my Tier 1 list, while Tyreek Hill will be a “monster ceiling, slightly lower floor” tourney option. Patrick Mahomes will become the most attractive quarterback on the slate, with Andy Dalton joining him in the top tier. C.J. Uzomah and Sammy Watkins look like tourney-viable options as well. This game changes everything the main slate throws at us — creating a great edge against those on FantasyDraft who simply move their DraftKings team over each week with merely cosmetic modifications.


Kickoff Monday, Oct 22nd 8:15pm Eastern

Giants (
24.25) at

Falcons (
28.25)

Over/Under 52.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Giants Run D
29th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O
20th DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
19th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Falcons Pass O
22nd DVOA/8th Yards per pass
Falcons Run D
8th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
31st DVOA/15th Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D
29th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
30th DVOA/30th Yards per pass

GIANTS // FALCONS OVERVIEW

From a “weapons on the field” perspective, this is the most exciting game of the entire weekend. Because Monday is the one day I try to take off — stepping away from football to rest my mind before another wild week — I don’t typically watch the Monday Night Football game live (instead, I catch the condensed game or the all-22 a day or two later). But I just might change up the script on Abby this week and declare this to be “Monday Night Football night” instead of “The Wire night” (yes, we’ve never watched The Wire until now), as this game is going to be a blast to watch.

This game has been awarded an Over/Under of 54.5, with the Falcons installed as early-week 5.5 point favorites. Atlanta ranks ninth in points scored per game and 31st in points allowed per game, while ranking fifth in yards per game and 29th in yards allowed per game. Incredibly, these teams are not far from each other in the NFC Standings, with the 2-4 Falcons disappointingly joining the 1-5 Giants. More than likely, the Falcons tack on another win in this spot — but it should be a fun ride to get there.

GIANTS PASS OFFENSE

This game quietly sets up great for the Giants’ beleaguered passing attack, as the only way to attack this Falcons defense (short routes — preferably over the middle) is the only thing Eli Manning is capable of doing anymore.

As we are aware by now: the goal of the Falcons’ defense is to keep the ball in front of them — forcing short throws, and making teams march up the field one play at a time — a goal that has been further emphasized as the Falcons have been ravaged by injuries. This is allowing Atlanta to play respectably on a per-play basis (even with all the key injuries, only eight teams have allowed fewer pass plays of 20+ yards, while the Falcons are forcing a below-average aDOT and allowing below-average YAC per reception stats), but in order to limit big plays, the Falcons are having to give up the fifth-highest catch rate in the NFL. As a result, Atlanta has been the worst team in the NFL in drive success rate allowed, and only six teams are forcing fewer punts per game. To sum all this up: Atlanta forces opponents to march the entire field, but they have been incapable of preventing opponents from doing exactly that.

While it is scary to have faith in Eli Manning at this point, the issue has not been that “Eli can’t complete passes” (in fact, Eli currently boasts the highest completion rate of his entire career); rather, the knock on Eli is that he can no longer complete passes downfield. In this matchup? — who cares! Teams can’t complete passes downfield against the Falcons anyway, and this defense essentially gives away passes underneath. Eli should have no trouble getting the ball into the hands of Saquon Barkley, Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard, and Evan Engram.

The starting point for teams taking on the Falcons has to be “passes to running backs,” as this defense once again leads the NFL in receptions allowed to the position — even allowing Peyton Barber (two catches all season heading into last week’s game) to go 4-24-1 through the air. Christian McCaffrey was given 15 targets in this matchup. Alvin Kamara was given 20 targets in this matchup. On the opposite end of this spectrum, it should be noted that Giovani Bernard and James Conner each saw only four targets in this matchup. Naturally, each hauled in all four looks. The great news for Saquon (who has target counts all over the place this year :: 6 // 16 // 5 // 8 // 4 // 12) is that he is going to be involved no matter what, and Atlanta can also be hit on the ground, having given up the fourth-most yards per carry and the third most rushing touchdowns in the league. Saquon has played 80.1% of the Giants’ snaps over the last two weeks, and he carries the highest raw projection in this game.

Incredibly, Atlanta has also allowed the most touchdowns in the league to wide receivers, creating opportunity for OBJ to get in on the fun as well. Beckham has only one game all season below double-digit targets, and for all the hand-wringing over this offense, he ranks ninth in the NFL in receiving yards and fifth in catches. He even has a respectable six pass plays of 20+ yards this year — tied with guys like Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and Mike Evans. Beckham will see double-digit looks once again in this one, and he should haul in around 70% of his targets, with several opportunities for him to break off long runs after the catch. Atlanta is disciplined, and they tackle well, but it only takes one play for OBJ to hit.

Evan Engram is on track to return this week, and he and Sterling Shepard will divvy up the remaining targets in this offense. Given high pass volume expectations, each guy should be able to sneak anywhere from five to eight looks — creating opportunity for points to pile up. Because everything on this offense (and everything against the Atlanta defense) sets up for shorter passing routes, volume is king in this spot, but there is no reason one of these guys can’t hit for a long play or a touchdown.

Behind these guys, Russell Shepard should return this week with Cody Latimer on the shelf, and he’ll see anywhere from one to four targets. He would need a miracle to become relevant, even on the Showdown slate.

FALCONS PASS OFFENSE

Matt Ryan has 30 pass attempts in the red zone this season (13th in the NFL). He has been great in the red area, tossing 10 touchdown passes (third in the NFL) to only one interception.

Of those 30 passes, a total of three have gone to Julio Jones. There are 88 players in the NFL who have more red zone targets than Julio. An indecent number of times per game, the Falcons run plays in the red zone without even putting Julio on the field.

If you would like to take an optimistic approach here, it is worth noting that Julio started last year with similar red zone usage, and then — in a prime time game (Sunday Night Football) against the Patriots, in Week 7 — he was fed four or five looks inside the 10-yard-line, notching his first touchdown on the season. From that point forward, his red zone role grew, and though he finished the season with only five red zone catches and one red zone touchdown, his 19 looks screamed that touchdown regression was coming this year. Alas, this has not come to pass, as old foe Steve Sarkisian has removed red zone responsibilities from Julio’s plate again.

All of that is important, because at Julio’s price (or on the Showdown slate: in the same game as OBJ and Saquon), he really needs touchdown upside in order to justify placement on your roster.

From a matchup perspective: Julio has a winnable draw against Janoris Jenkins, who has been charted by PFF as allowing 27 completions on 38 pass attempts into his coverage (71.1%), with five touchdowns surrendered (two interceptions), and a 120.1 quarterback rating allowed. On a deeper level, however, there are slight concerns to be had over volume for Julio, as Tre’Davious White is the only corner who held DeAndre Hopkins to fewer targets (10), and Michael Thomas saw a season-low four targets in his game vs Jenkins. Alshon Jeffrey did see 12 targets last week vs the Giants, but only three came in Jenkins’ coverage. Matt Ryan has dropped Julio’s targets this year in every shadow situation he has faced — with six targets given to him against Marshon Lattimore, nine targets in Joe Haden Week, and nine targets in James Bradberry Week. Julio can win this matchup (Julio can win any matchup — and Jenkins is not a true shy-away corner in the first place), but volume may trickle down for him again this week.

As of this writeup (4:00 AM on Thursday), there is still no news about the expected availability of Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu, but it seems likely that Ridley (bone bruise) will play, and we’ll approach this writeup assuming Sanu (hip) will be on the field as well. If either is absent, more responsibilities will fall onto Austin Hooper and Justin Hardy, with Julio’s chances of not being underused increasing as well.

Three weeks ago, Ridley played 54% of the Falcons’ snaps, and two weeks ago this jumped up to 67%. It should be noted that this team rotates wide receivers more heavily than any other team in football — embarrassingly giving Julio Jones snap rates over the last three weeks of 77% // 74% // 76%. Even more embarrassingly, most of Julio’s snaps on the sideline are run plays — because of course, the defense won’t pick up on this trend. (I digress.) Ridley is running a pass route on about 75% of the Falcons’ pass plays, and he is being fed five to seven targets per game, with five red zone targets and a variable route tree that provides floor and ceiling. Mohamed Sanu has three red zone targets of his own, with a route tree that has expanded over the last three weeks to include more downfield looks.

Only four teams have allowed more pass plays of 20+ yards than the Giants, and while they play plenty of sticky man coverage that has led to a below-average catch rate, this team’s lack of pass rush is leading to them facing a deeper aDOT than the league average, while also allowing more YAC per reception than the league average.

The one area where the Giants have done really well this year in coverage is against the tight end, as only seven teams have allowed fewer receptions to the position. This is a more difficult draw than Austin Hooper has had the last couple weeks.

FALCONS RUN OFFENSE

With Devonta Freeman on the shelf, this Falcons rushing attack (27th in yards per carry, 30th in adjusted line yards) has become more “55/45” split than the “65/35” split we always saw when Freeman was healthy — with Ito Smith soaking up the smaller share, seeing touch counts over the last three weeks of 10 // 4 // 13, compared to 17 // 9 // 11 for Tevin Coleman. Each guy has disappointed in a big way, with Coleman averaging 3.7 yards per carry and Smith averaging 3.2. The Giants have been a middling unit against the run, which neither raises nor lowers expectations for these guys. Expect around 10 to 14 touches for Coleman in this spot and eight to 12 touches for Smith. Either guy will need a multi-touchdown game to really make a dent.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

While I don’t play the Showdown slates myself, I have learned enough about them to know that it is pretty poor process to build just one team for these slates — as a much better approach is to build multiple teams that take shots on different things that could happen. It essentially breaks down like this: the more games there are on the slate, the more opportunity we have to nail down a top-to-bottom roster of “best plays on the slate,” providing ourselves with more floor and ceiling than our opponents. But the fewer games there are on a “slate,” the more opportunities there are for variance to come into play — as fewer games means fewer available players, which means more “suboptimal” players being rostered, which means more chances for fluky circumstances to actually lead to week-winning scores for those who are taking off-the-wall risks. All that to say: it’s preferable to shift away from a “limited lineup” approach on these Showdown slates, and to instead mess around with some multi-entry ideas.

For me, the best plays on the slate are Saquon (he’s head and shoulders above others) and OBJ, and if I were playing the Showdown myself and building 15 or 20 teams, I would likely go 100% Saquon and 75% to 80% OBJ — taking a stand on these two as the “surest pieces” on the slate. While Julio could outscore either guy, he’s the one I would want to be underweight on, as his lack of red zone usage just makes it so much more difficult for him to hit for a monster score. If I faded him (or went underweight on him) and he did hit, I would be happy chalking that up to part of the game. We know that monster scores are in his range of outcomes, but pricing would dictate that one of these three has to be left on the table, and the first two would hit far more often if we played out this game a hundred times.

Behind those three big names, Matt Ryan carries the highest raw floor and ceiling, while Eli honestly has a shot at outscoring all of the remaining skill position players.

Remaining players would go Ridley // Sanu // Shepard // Engram // Coleman // Smith for me in ceiling projections.

These players would be rearranged as Sanu // Shepard // Ridley // Engram // Coleman // Smith for floor — and if you are more comfortable than I am trusting this Falcons rushing attack, Coleman could be shifted much higher up the list.