EAGLES // GIANTS OVERVIEW

Given the state of the NFC East (Washington leads the division at only 2-2), both of these teams are still technically in the thick of the race — though the Giants are going to have a much tougher time making a move than the Eagles will have. Vegas has Philly installed as an early three-point favorite in spite of this game being played on the Giants’ home field, and even with injuries in their backfield (Jay Ajayi has been diagnosed with a torn ACL — which he may or may not have played on for part of Sunday’s game vs the Vikings), the Eagles’ offense should be able to control the flow of this game.

Each of these teams has played slowly to begin the year. Philly ranked 22nd in pace of play heading into last weekend, while the Giants ranked 31st. The slow pace for the Giants has led to them ranking 28th in plays per game. The Eagles’ defense entered last week ranked fifth in drive success rate allowed, while the Giants ranked 22nd on offense. The Eagles allow a below-average number of plays, and volume should take a slight hit on the Giants’ side of the ball. Neither team has been particularly aggressive on offense, with Carson Wentz posting an aDOT of 8.0, and with Eli Manning posting an aDOT of 7.2. The one offensive bonus in this game is that each unit ranks in the top 10 in the NFL in passing play percentage.

The Eagles should be able to sustain more drives than the Giants, but New York should be able to hit for enough big plays to keep this game competitive throughout. Expectations lean toward the Eagles in a macro sense, but each side should be able to produce a couple players who get in on the DFS fun.

EAGLES PASS OFFENSE

While the Eagles’ pass protection has been a weak spot to begin the year, the Giants have had perhaps the worst pass rush in the NFL early on, which has led to coverage breakdowns on the back end — with New York allowing an average depth of target nearly 11% deeper than the league average. With time for the secondary to get spread out, the Giants are also tackling poorly after the catch.

The Giants have been most attackable over the middle, where they entered last week ranked 32nd in Football Outsiders’ metrics for passes to the middle third of the field — with a number 27 ranking over the deep middle, and a number 32 ranking over the short middle. The Eagles’ main piece over the middle has been Zach Ertz, who has dominated looks to begin the year, with target counts of 10, 13, 10, 14, and 11. Ertz also ranks 13th in the NFL in red zone opportunities, and his eight targets in the red zone are behind only Eric Ebron and Jared Cook among tight ends. The Giants have played tough tight end defense early on, but Ertz should be viewed more as a seam/slot receiver than as a tight end, given his role in this offense.

The Eagles’ other main piece over the middle has been Nelson Agholor, who has seen bounce-around target counts on the season of 10, 12, five, 12, and four. His aDOT of 8.5 gives him healthy YAC-added upside if the looks are there again this week. Philly projects for around 35 to 38 pass attempts in this spot — which is the range Wentz was in for Agholor’s lower-target games; though the middle-filtering nature of the Giants’ defense should lead to Agholor picking up a couple extra looks, and six to nine targets is a comfortable projection. He has reverted back to some of his old mistakes lately, but he still has tremendous talent if he gets back on track.

The Eagles will still target Alshon Jeffery in this spot, but he’ll be primarily matched up with Janoris Jenkins, who held DeAndre Hopkins and Michael Thomas to season-low target counts (10 for Hopkins; four for Thomas). Even when Jenkins is not in coverage, the Giants are doing a good job on the outside, where Alshon will primarily operate. After seeing eight and nine targets the last two weeks, it’s unlikely Alshon pops off for double-digit looks this week, and efficiency will be a challenge in this matchup. Naturally, Alshon still carries tourney upside for his big-play skill set and his chops in the red zone — but he’s more boom/bust this week than high-floor/high-ceiling.

No other receiver on Philly played more than 22 snaps last week (Jordan Matthews — one target). The first four options in this passing attack are Ertz, Alshon, Agholor, and whichever running back is on the field. Shelton Gibson played nine snaps and saw one target in Week 5. Dallas Goedert played 34 snaps and saw two looks.

EAGLES RUN OFFENSE

The Giants rank 25th in yards allowed per carry on the year, and the Eagles’ line has blocked well early on — entering last week ranked 10th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards. While the Eagles rank 10th in pass play rate, they have been involving the running backs in the passing attack, and they may lean a bit more run-heavy in this spot if they grab an early lead.

Earlier in the year, when Jay Ajayi missed time, Corey Clement and Wendell Smallwood split snaps and reps at a roughly 60/40 clip, and each guy should remain involved this week with Ajayi out and Clement expected back. In Week 3, these two combined for 26 carries and nine targets — and a similar total workload can be penciled in this week. Smallwood has a little more upside in the passing attack, as the Eagles have had success lately getting him lined up on linebackers and sending him downfield to try to pick up chunk plays, but Clement should see a few more touches. Each guy should have a red zone role, and “best play” will likely come down to “who scores a touchdown.” The Giants’ great strength on defense has been red zone touchdown rate (third in the NFL), but they have allowed seven touchdowns to running backs (four rushing, three receiving), compared to zero receiving touchdowns allowed to tight ends and only three allowed to wide receivers (third best in the NFL). If Philly scores three touchdowns, there is a good chance two of these come from running backs, creating a strong “Cheat Code” situation — with Smallwood and Clement having a clear shot to combine for 20 to 30 on FanDuel, or for 24 to 35 on DraftKings.

GIANTS PASS OFFENSE

Unsurprisingly, only one team has faced fewer rush attempts per game than the Eagles, and only eight teams have faced more pass attempts, as teams simply do not try to run on the Eagles. Philly has a solid four-man pass rush, and the Giants have had one of the worst pass protection units to begin the year, which should put Eli Manning in a similar situation to what Kirk Cousins had last week — when he was constantly under siege, and had to move around in the pocket or get rid of the ball quickly. The difference, of course, is that Cousins is comfortable uncorking downfield throws when throwing off-balance under pressure, while Eli Manning is no longer capable of doing this with any sort of authority. The Vikings’ offense (which retains many of Pat Shurmur’s concepts) also relied heavily on wide receiver screens last week — an approach that the Giants should carry over in an effort to get the ball into the hands of Odell Beckham. Philly tackles well after the catch, but something in the range of what Stefon Diggs did last week (10-91-0, on 11 targets) is a fair expectation for Beckham. He has a high floor and a high ceiling in this spot.

With Evan Engram returning, Sterling Shepard should see a dent in percentage of team targets — but with the Giants likely to throw the ball plenty this week, he should still manage to see around seven looks (a mark he has hit or topped in four of five games this year). He’ll have a solid floor in this spot. He’ll need a big play or a touchdown to reach ceiling. (Note: Engram is now going to miss this game. His five to seven targets should trickle over to OBJ, Shepard, and Barkley.)

This offense (25th in yards per game) is incapable of producing big stat lines on three or four players at a time, and Engram should take a backseat to Beckham, Barkley, and Shepard this week, but five to seven targets is a fair expectation. The Eagles play tough tight end defense, having allowed the fourth-fewest receptions to the position this year.

The Giants have wasted seven targets on Russell Shepard the last two weeks. These should bleed backward with Engram on the field again, but perhaps he sees another two or three desperation looks.

GIANTS RUN OFFENSE

Philly has been one of the toughest teams to run on once again this year, and the Giants have a bottom-three run blocking unit. This poor blocking has not stopped Saquon Barkley from piling up big fantasy numbers to begin the year, but he has needed touchdowns in four of five games to get there, and this is his toughest test yet. He has topped 48 rushing yards in only one of his last four games, and he’ll need a big day through the air (or a big day in the scoring department) to truly pay off his salary. Barkley has disappointingly seen six or fewer targets in three of five games this year (with eight and 16 targets in his other two). This sets up as something like a seven to nine target game, so he’ll have opportunities for big plays, but he’ll need to break through an Eagles defense that ranks sixth in red zone touchdown rate in order to keep his early-season streak of strong box scores intact.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Carson Wentz may struggle for scoring upside vs a Giants defense that has limited touchdowns so far to wide receivers and tight ends — but on the Showdown slate, he still warrants attention given his talent and the skills of those around him. Eli Manning will likely rack up yardage through volume, though he’ll have a tough time breaking through for a truly impact score, as he’ll be under siege all night.

Wendell Smallwood and Corey Clement are both interesting on this slate — and both can be considered on the Showdown slate and on the full-weekend slate. It’s a guessing game between the two if playing them separately; but they can be played together like a single high-priced running back, and they should produce roughly at that level. On the other side, Barkley is a bet-on-talent play. He’ll need to bust out one of his classic long plays in order to really make a price-considered impact in a tough spot. He’s a risk/reward play in tourneys.

The Eagles’ passing attack should go Ertz // Agholor // Jeffrey // RBs. Ertz is the safest, highest-upside play, while Agholor carries decent floor with talent-driven ceiling, and Jeffrey has floor concerns but talent-driven upside. On the Giants’ side, I would feel most comfortable backing Odell Beckham, with Shepard and then Engram following behind him in the pass game.

The Giants’ defense is not particularly interesting to me, but the Eagles should be able to pick up several sacks and at least one turnover against Eli Manning.

As is typically the case: both kickers can be considered on the showdown slate as well — with extra opportunities likely to flow their way this week, given the strong red zone defense each team boasts.

CARDINALS // VIKINGS OVERVIEW

The Cardinals finally got their first win of the season last week — the last team in the NFL to do so — while the Vikings got their season back on track with a tough road win against the Eagles to move to 2-2-1, tied with the Packers for second in a tough NFC North. Vegas has the Vikings installed as early 10-point favorites in this one; and while Minnesota had a letdown in a similar spot a few weeks back vs the Bills, we should expect them to come out focused this week.

The Vikings have been aggressive on offense this year, ranking sixth in pace of play and second in passing play percentage. The Cardinals, of course, have been on the opposite end of the spectrum, ranking 24th in pace and 16th in passing play percentage.

While Arizona ranks middle of the pack on defense both on the ground and through the air, they have trailed so often this season that they have faced 28 more rush attempts than any other team in the league to begin the season. It will be interesting to see how Minnesota adjusts with a lead this week, as they have had a difficult time running the ball early on, ranking 29th in yards per carry and 28th in adjusted line yards. Look for the Vikings to slow down the pace a bit if they grab a lead, and to lean more run-heavy than normal — but not quite to the extent that other teams have gone run-heavy vs this Arizona defense.

CARDINALS PASS OFFENSE

The Vikings continued to look less-than-elite on defense last week, allowing Carson Wentz to complete almost 70% of his passes for 311 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Harrison Smith and Xavier Rhodes were the only players on this defense with pass breakups last week, while slot corner Mackensie Alexander and rookie Mike Hughes combined to allow 10 receptions on 10 targets in their direction. The Vikings play fast and aggressive on defense, and Wentz was able to hit tight-window throws and was able to find his receivers on crossers throughout the game to keep the ball moving.

The good news ends there for Josh Rosen and the Cardinals. Right now, this Arizona team is in “building mode” — not necessarily worried about trying to win every game (as evidenced by their snail’s pace on offense when constantly trailing), but instead worried about getting as many quality future-building reps as possible. Over the last two weeks, Rosen has thrown 27 and 25 pass attempts — completing only 25 of these 52 passes, for 350 yards and a pair of touchdowns. If Arizona unleashes Rosen for 45+ pass attempts this week, he should be able to press for 300 yards and will have a shot at multiple touchdowns, but that seems unlikely to suddenly become Arizona’s approach.

Notable target counts on the Cardinals over the last two weeks:

10 :: Larry Fitzgerald
10 :: Ricky Seals-Jones
9 :: Chad Williams
9 :: Christian Kirk
7 :: David Johnson

RSJ has caught only two of his 10 targets, while Williams has hauled in three of his nine looks. Fitz has caught five of 10 and should work over the middle of the field; his value comes from high-target games, so a bet on Fitz would be a bet on the Cardinals opening up this offense more than they have the last couple weeks.

The best connection has been Rosen to Kirk, which the Cardinals seem to be proactively trying to develop. Kirk has hauled in seven catches for 113 yards and a touchdown across the last two weeks, while also taking a pair of carries. While his future is supposedly in the slot, he has looked good on the outside early on, and Arizona may be able to develop him into an all-purpose weapon throughout the remainder of this year, while Fitz mans the slot. Kirk has played 57% of his snaps on the outside so far.

CARDINALS RUN OFFENSE

Mike McCoy heard that he was supposed to get David Johnson more involved…so he has given him 40 carries across the last two weeks, behind an offensive line that ranks 29th in adjusted line yards, leading to 126 rushing yards across those two games. DJ has never been a dominant between-the-tackles runner (when he first came up, he was viewed as a pass-catching back only until deep into the 2015 season when injuries led to him taking on the lead job and exploding in all facets of the game), and he’ll be facing an above-average Minnesota run defense. He will need a multi-touchdown game or a spike in receiving work to be a high-floor force in this game — though DJ does have “to the house” upside with the ball in his hands, which keeps his ceiling theoretically intact.

VIKINGS PASS OFFENSE

Because everyone wants to simplify their research process, most DFS players (and most DFS writers) often label bad teams as “bad,” and will therefore fail to notice that the Cardinals have faced the lowest average depth of target in the entire NFL this year, with Steve Wilks’ zone scheme pushing teams to take short completions instead of trying to attack deep. Given the way the Cardinals play pass defense and the way game flow is likely to shake out in this game, this is a slight “downgrade” spot for my favorite wide receiver duo in the NFL.

Through five games, Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs are combining for almost 77% of the Vikings’ air yards (an almost unheard of number for two guys to be splitting), while they have combined for nine games of double-digit targets (in 10 total opportunities). Right now, Thielen ranks second in the NFL in targets per game, and Diggs ranks seventh. On this pace, each guy will finish the year with an average of double-digit targets per game. In 2017, only four players in the NFL averaged double-digit targets. Don’t be fooled into thinking that these guys cannot produce together; each guys is a Top 10 receiver in the NFL, and each guy is being targeted like a Top 10 receiver. This is not the best week for them to hit — against a team that forces short throws, in a game in which passing volume will likely take a step back for Minnesota — but they are always in play.

Laquon Treadwell was schemed a couple looks last week, and he continues to log heavy playing time and run into a couple additional targets when other guys are covered. He’s not a force in this offense, but he should see four to six looks again. Over the last three weeks, Kyle Rudolph has seen target counts of six, six, and five, and he has caught 15 of these 17 looks. Typically, his receptions are coming when he is the checkdown option beneath a deeper route for Thielen or Diggs, so don’t expect big “schemed” usage, but he should be in line for five or six high-efficiency targets again in this spot. Red zone targets on this team go Thielen :: 7 // Diggs :: 4 // Rudolph :: 3 // Treadwell :: 2.

VIKINGS RUN OFFENSE

Mike Boone and Roc Thomas continue to take a few looks away from Latavius Murray in this backfield, but the veteran Murray still had 13 touches last week to six for Boone and Thomas. We cannot expect the Vikings to go as run-heavy against the Cardinals as other teams have (Arizona has faced a monstrous 34.8 rush attempts per game — but their schedule so far has been: Redskins :: 24th in pass play rate // Rams :: 27th in pass play rate // Bears :: 26th in pass play rate // Seahawks :: 31st in pass play rate // 49ers :: 18th in pass play rate; again, the Vikings rank second in the NFL in pass play rate), but they should take a lead and lean on the run more than normal, which could lead to 16 to 20 touches for Latavius. The best way to score on the Cardinals is to run the ball close to the goal line (seven rushing touchdowns allowed to running backs // one rushing touchdown allowed to quarterbacks — compared to five passing touchdowns allowed, with two of these passing touchdowns also coming to running backs). This opens some sneaky “bet on workload” upside for Murray this week.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Nothing in this game pops off the page as a primary play — including even the Vikings’ defense, which will have a difficult time generating splash plays if the Cardinals continue to play conservative ball even when trailing. From a talent and guaranteed usage perspective, Diggs and Thielen are always in the conversation for me in tourneys, while the same can be said for the big-play upside of David Johnson.

I like Christian Kirk as a player, but after considering him and not pulling the trigger last week, this is not a spot where it would make sense to suddenly jump on board in a tougher matchup.

Latavius Murray is an interesting “bet on usage” play who could pay off with a multi-touchdown game. The floor is lower than I would love, but he should have a solid shot at hitting in this game. He joins Thielen, Diggs, D.J., and Kirk as “guys to consider, who I probably won’t end up actually playing.”

SATURDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE // Full “Updates” List

Dalvin Cook will play this week for the Vikings. Realistically, this takes all Vikings running backs off the board, as “volume” is the reason to use running backs vs Arizona. Cook’s volume will be held back a bit, and his return puts a dent in the workload for Latavius Murray. As always, it only takes one big play to post a solid box score, so you could make a large-field tourney case for Cook — but he’s a low floor play.

PANTHERS // REDSKINS OVERVIEW

The “first place” (2-2) Redskins will host the 3-1 Panthers this week, in a matchup of two teams that play a conservative style of football, with Washington ranking 22nd in pace of play and Carolina ranking 28th. Only eight teams have run the ball more frequently than Washington, while only two teams have run more frequently than Carolina. Alex Smith has an average intended air yards of only 7.2, while Cam Newton sits at only 7.6. Both of these teams rank top six in “fewest opponent plays per game.”

While each offense can do some good things, Vegas has installed an Over/Under of 44.5 in what is essentially an “anti-shootout” environment. Each team will be looking to march methodically up and down the field, while playing keepaway from their opponent.

PANTHERS PASS OFFENSE

The only team in the NFL that has allowed a lower aDOT than Washington is the Cardinals — with Washington shaving almost 24% off the league-average aDOT so far, with an aDOT allowed on the year of only 6.2. While Washington has done a tremendous job forcing short passes, however, they do tend to have breakdowns downfield when pass protection holds up long enough for a quarterback. The deep ball has not been nearly as big a part of this Carolina offense as it was in the past — but with the return of Curtis Samuel and the integration of D.J. Moore into this offense, there is upside for Cam Newton to take a couple downfield shots.

Washington has faced only 34.5 pass attempts per game, while Cam Newton has thrown the ball only 32.5 times per game, so look for this to be a low-volume attack for the Panthers, with a good 20% of the targets on this team shaved off the top for Christian McCaffrey. This leaves around 23 to 26 targets left to go around, among Devin Funchess, Jarius Wright, Torrey Smith, D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, and a likely-to-return Greg Olsen. While Moore and Samuel each saw four targets last week, they came out of the bye playing only 29 (Moore) and 12 (Samuel) snaps, compared to 46 for Smith and 30 for Wright. Speedster Damiere Byrd also out-snapped Samuel, with 13 plays on the field.

The best way to squeeze fantasy points out of a matchup against Washington is to move away from short/intermediate route runners, and to instead target the guys who might get a few shots deep. This theoretically puts Samuel (and even Smith) in play, but this is obviously a boom/bust proposition. This offense has a lot of mouths to feed, without a lot of pass plays to go around.

Inside the 10-yard-line, McCaffrey has six carries and one target, while Cam has four carries and only five total pass attempts.

PANTHERS RUN OFFENSE

One of the biggest mismatches on the slate is the Panthers’ run blocking (second in adjusted line yards) against the Redskins’ run defense (30th in adjusted line yards). Washington ranks a more respectable 14th in yards allowed per carry, but they were fortunate to take on poor run-blocking units in Arizona and Indy to begin the year, and they fell so far behind the Saints last week that they were able to focus on the run down the stretch. The last time Carolina saw a big mismatch in the run game, they gave Christian McCaffrey 28 carries against the Bengals (27th in adjusted line yards). In his other three games, he has target counts of nine, 15, and six. In all, CMC has touch counts on the year of 16 // 22 // 30 // 22, and he should remain the key piece of this offense once again.

In addition to the rushing usage/efficiency CMC should have, it will not be surprising if we see Cam Newton add another 10 or 12 rushes of his own. He enters this week averaging nine carries and 41.3 rushing yards per game, with three rushing touchdowns on the year (to go with seven passing touchdowns). The likeliest scenario in this spot is three total touchdowns for Carolina, so a lot of things would have to go right for a true blowup; but both Cam and CMC should see solid work in this game, with strong floor/ceiling combos.

REDSKINS PASS OFFENSE

While Carolina has not played great pass defense this year — allowing above-average marks in aDOT, catch rate, and expected yards per target, while notching only nine sacks through four games and ranking 24th in adjusted sack rate — they have faced the third fewest opponent plays per game, and they have faced only 35 pass attempts per game as a result. Most of their issues this year have come from opponents finding downfield openings along the sidelines…which is obviously not something Alex Smith is best suited to take advantage of. Smith impressively threw six passes last week that traveled at least 20 yards downfield — as Washington fell behind big and had to dial up an uncharacteristic 39 pass attempts — but Smith had thrown only five total passes this year of 20 or more yards heading into that game. Washington will mix in a couple deep shots, but this is not something they want to lean on unless they absolutely have to.

The Redskins’ plan early in the year has been to try to establish Adrian Peterson on the ground in an effort to control the game and take the lead — and in the two games in which they have been successful with this approach, Smith has thrown the ball 30 and 20 times. In the other two games, Smith has thrown the ball 46 and 39 times, so a lot of this passing attack will depend on the early success of Peterson and the Washington defense. As long as this game stays close, Peterson will be the guy they lean on over Smith.

Early this year, Carolina’s defense ranks third in adjusted line yards on defense — but they have allowed 4.9 yards per carry to running backs, and 4.6 yards per carry overall (24th in the NFL). They are one of the best teams in the NFL at stopping runs up the middle, but they struggle when teams stretch them out a bit and run between the guard and the tackle, which is where Adrian Peterson has had his most success this year. I’m expecting this game to remain close enough for Peterson to see around 16 to 22 carries, and he should have an opportunity to pile up yards. If he punches in a touchdown, he’ll provide a nice box score.

If that prediction proves accurate, “volume” will be low across the board for Washington pass catchers, with a banged-up Chris Thompson seeing fewer targets (he has nine total targets in Peterson’s higher-rush games, compared to 22 total targets in Washington’s other two games), and with the chances of Paul Richardson, Jamison Crowder, and Josh Doctson popping off for a high-usage game looking slim as well. Crowder has one game of more than four targets (eight looks last week). Doctson has target counts on the year of three, seven, and three. Richardson has yet to top six looks.

An additional wrinkle is thrown into all of this with Doctson missing last week’s game, and with Crowder/Richardson listed as “non-participants” in Wednesday’s practice (Washington merely held a walk-through, but Gruden said that neither of these guys would have practiced had it been a standard practice day).

If one of these guys misses this week (and especially if Chris Thompson misses this week), Jordan Reed will see a bump in usage, following up target counts on the year of five, eight, seven, and two. Carolina ranks 27th in DVOA against the tight end, and while they have not allowed big numbers on the year, they have faced three teams (Dallas, Atlanta, and the Giants-sans-Engram) that don’t use the tight end heavily. Regardless of injuries and game flow, Reed should be in line for another five or six targets. If this game unexpectedly turns into a track meet and/or one of Washington’s other pass catchers is injured, Reed will see a small bump in usage expectations.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Given the low play volume in this game, it’s not a spot that will draw much attention from me — especially as each offense takes a “march methodically” approach. There should be some nice fantasy games that emerge from this game — but it will be difficult to find a week-winning score in this spot, and a game like this will produce some duds as well.

The safest, highest-upside play is McCaffrey, and he appears to be the one piece I’ll be heavily considering, given his usage and the way this matchup sets up. I’ll also have added interest in Jordan Reed if a couple of these banged-up Washington pass catchers end up inactive.

You could take a shot on Cam Newton in this spot, and I don’t hate Adrian Peterson (his floor is lower than I would love, but the usage should be there, and the upside is solid), while large-field fliers could also be taken on guys like Greg Olsen and Paul Richardson, in the hopes that something clicks just right. These are not pieces I will be drawn to myself, but they are at least worth a mention.

BEARS // DOLPHINS OVERVIEW

The 3-1 Bears will come off their bye to take on a 3-2 Dolphins team that soaked up early wins with a soft schedule before getting smoked by the Patriots in Week 4 and blowing a 17 point lead against the Bengals in Week 5. While recency bias has everyone looking at Miami like a pushover, we should realize that they would have been talked up this week as one of the surprise teams of the season if they had held on against Cincy and moved to 4-1 on the year. With that said: Chicago is clearly the superior team, on both offense and defense. The Bears will move from temperatures in the high 40s and low 50s at home in Chicago to a road environment that currently calls for a low of 80 and a high of 85 on Sunday — an underrated home field advantage for Miami. But this is the bulk of what the Dolphins have going for them.

Chicago has been installed as three point favorites on the road, and in a game between a pair of good defenses that are backed up by offenses that rank bottom three in pace of play, this is unlikely to turn into a shootout. The Rams are the only team that has allowed fewer plays per game than the Bears, while the Cardinals are the only team that has run fewer plays per game than Miami. Each team ranks bottom 10 in pass play rate.

BEARS PASS OFFENSE

Miami ranks seventh in yards allowed per carry and ninth in run defense DVOA, and while they are in the bottom half of the league in yards allowed per pass attempt, they also rank fifth in pass defense DVOA. With no “clear way” to tilt an attack against the Dolphins — and with Miami not in line to jump out to a big lead — we should expect the Bears to stick to their standard approach, which has led to the seventh lowest pass rate in the league, and has led to pass attempt numbers for Mitchell Trubisky this year of 35, 34, 35, and 26. While he tossed six touchdown passes against the lowly Bucs in Week 4, he had only two touchdown passes in the previous three weeks combined. His game against Tampa was the first time he had topped 220 yards in a game this year — and while the bye will give this team even more time to get things clicking on offense, we need to realize that “defense and running” is the way this team wants to win games.

Miami has been above-average against the deep ball and the short passes, while holding opponents to a below-average aDOT and a below-average catch rate. The best way to beat this team is with yards after the catch, as they have allowed an increase of more than 25% above the league average in YAC per reception. Even with this, Miami ranks middle of the pack in pass plays allowed of 20+ yards — so this poor tackling is not affecting them enough to create monster stat lines, especially as the Dolphins slow down the game so much and do a good job limiting downfield passing.

Receivers who have had success against Miami this year (Jordy Nelson and A.J. Green in particular) have gotten there by lining up on the left side of the field and running digs and crossers toward the right sideline.

Chicago is extremely versatile in the way they use their pass catchers, with Taylor Gabriel and Allen Robinson seeing their route tree change from week to week, so it is difficult to say beyond guesswork who will benefit most in this spot, but both guys should be involved (each guy has a pair of seven target games, with one game below that mark and one game above), while Gabriel is the better bet for YAC, given his speed and his short-area burst. This does not shape up as a likely spot for either guy to see a big spike in targets — especially as Anthony Miller is on track to return this week, and should soak up four or five looks of his own.

Behind these guys, Trey Burton has target counts of six, four, five, and four — essentially playing the role of the third receiver, as he has run only five fewer pass routes than Gabriel this year and only 20 fewer pass routes than Robinson. He’ll need a touchdown in this spot in order to pay dividends.

BEARS RUN OFFENSE

While Miami has slowed down the pace, they have failed to sustain drives on offense — ranking 28th in drive success rate. This has led to the Dolphins facing the second most rush attempts in the entire NFL to begin the season, in spite of allowing only 3.7 yards per carry. Because Miami has been so bad at sustaining drives, they have allowed the eighth most opponent plays per game in the NFL — and this week should be no different, against a Bears defense that ranks second in the league in drive success rate. This should allow the Bears to approach the 29.2 rush attempts per game that Miami has faced on the year — an approach this run-leaning team will be happy to take.

Two weeks ago, Jordan Howard took a backseat to Tarik Cohen, as the Bears wanted to spread out the Tampa defense and use Cohen’s speed in mismatches against their linebackers. This was an opponent-specific approach, though with how well it worked, we will need to be concerned moving forward that Chicago will go back to the well on this one from time to time. Miami’s linebackers have also been coverage liabilities, and only five teams have allowed more receptions to enemy backs.

I expect the Bears to come into this game with a plan to play great defense and wear Miami out with long, consistent drives — an approach that will lean Howard-heavy, but that will also create room for Cohen to mix in. Combining carries and receptions, Miami has allowed a massive 36.4 touches per game to opposing backfields, so there is space for both guys to get involved. Howard has touch counts on the year of 20, 17, 26, and 11, while Cohen has touched the ball eight, five, eight, and 20 times. With Chicago likely to run a few more plays than normal this week and to lean even more heavily on the run, something like 20 to 22 touches for Howard and 10 to 15 touches for Cohen is fairly likely. The Dolphins have allowed four rushing touchdowns to running backs, and of the six passing touchdowns they have allowed (the second lowest mark in the league), three have gone to RBs as well.

DOLPHINS PASS OFFENSE

Ryan Tannehill topped 28 pass attempts last week for the first time this season against a Cincinnati defense that is as bad at drive success rate as Miami is on offense — uncorking 35 pass attempts…for 185 yards. Tannehill has been held under 200 yards in three of five games this season, and he has yet to top 300 passing yards. Chicago is allowing only 231 passing yards per game, as their pass rush refuses to give quarterbacks time to look downfield. The Dolphins are a clear candidate to run the fewest plays on the weekend, so it is unlikely — once again — that we see any individual receiver on the Dolphins top six targets. It will take a big play for any of these guys to be relevant this week. Only two teams have allowed fewer passing plays of 20+ yards than the Bears this year.

If locked onto this spot for some reason, Kenny Stills is your best bet for upside, with target counts on the year of five, three, five, six, and five. He has three total touchdowns on the year, and he has a hundred yard game under his belt (to go with a pair of 17 yard games). A bet on Stills is a bet on this offense playing better than the numbers suggest they will.

DOLPHINS RUN OFFENSE

No team in football has faced fewer rush attempts than Chicago, at only 19.0 rushes against them per game. As scary as the Chicago pass rush is, their secondary is more attackable than their run defense, as only two teams in the league have allowed fewer yards per carry so far than Chicago. The Bears have allowed a league-low 64.0 rushing yards per game, and they have yet to allow a rushing touchdown.

On the Miami side, Frank Gore (nine to 13 touches in four of five games) and Kenyan Drake (touch counts all over the map, starting from Week 1: 17, 15, seven, four, and 13) continue to split work. The Dolphins will divide their limited running back touches between these two.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

I don’t have huge interest in this game, but the Bears’ backfield is more intriguing than I expected it to be, given how much time Chicago should spend with the ball, and how run-heavy they are likely to end up skewing. Howard is priced appropriately for his role on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, but he is priced at only 10.3% of the salary cap on FanDuel, right next to Austin Ekeler, who basically has the same role on his team that Cohen has on this one. Conversely, Cohen is priced a bit low on DraftKings and FantasyDraft if he sees his touches rise to double digits this week — making him an intriguing “upside” piece in tourneys. The guesswork in this spot should keep ownership low, giving Cohen a chance to be a difference-maker if he pops off for 20 points. He’s behind guys like Chris Carson and Mike Davis in raw projections, but there are paths to him having the highest score in this price range.

Taylor Gabriel and Allen Robinson could each have a good game, but nothing points to this being “the likeliest scenario,” so you are essentially “guessing and hoping you’re right” if you play them. This isn’t a bad move, as one of these two should post something solid, but it’s obviously thinner than the plays I typically try to hammer.

I’ll have no players on the Dolphins’ offense, while I’ll consider the Bears’ D. Tannehill has taken only 11 sacks through five games, while Miami A) will look to get the ball out quickly on pass plays, and B) will likely run the fewest plays on the weekend, which limits opportunities for the Bears to hit — making them more “boom/bust” than normal, as opposed to simply “boom.” Miami will have a hard time driving the field to score, but they may have some short fields from Trubisky mistakes.

COLTS // JETS OVERVIEW

This game will pair a couple of bottom feeders, with the Jets sitting at 2-3 and the Colts at 1-4. Vegas has sided with the home team, installing the Jets as early 2.5 point favorites, while the Over/Under in this game has been set at a modest 45.0 points. This game quietly pairs two massively contrasting styles, as the Colts have been ultra aggressive to start the year (first in situation neutral pace of play; first in pass play rate), while the Jets have done everything they can to slow down the game and protect their rookie quarterback (32nd in situation neutral pace of play; 28th in pass play rate). Each team ranks top eight in “most opponent plays allowed per game,” and the Colts also rank third in plays per game. In all, Colts games have averaged a massive 141.2 offensive plays per game, while Jets games have averaged a much more modest 128.4 plays per game. The Jets should see a few extra plays added to their total this week, given how fast the Colts play; but Indy should also see a few extra plays, given how tough it is for the Jets to sustain drives. There should be plenty of punts in this game, as each offense has had a tough time sustaining drives (Indy ranks 21st in drive success rate, while the Jets rank 29th), but there will also be plenty of opportunities for touches to pile up on either side of the ball.

COLTS PASS OFFENSE

The Colts have played only one game with a lead this year — and in that game, against Washington, Andrew Luck threw the ball only 31 times, while Jordan Wilkins, Nyheim Hines, and Marlon Mack (in his only healthy game on the year) combined for 24 carries. Indy is in line to run more like 65 to 70 plays this week, so even if they grab an early lead off a quick, successful drive and a Sam Darnold mistake, we should see around 35 to 38 pass attempts — and the likeliest scenario is that this game remains close, and that the Colts uncork over 40 passes yet again. In Luck’s other four games, he has pass attempt numbers of 53, 40, 62, and 59.

With T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle set to miss yet again, this volume will be spread across a thin band of players. Last week against the Patriots, “routes run” data and target counts among primary weapons on the Colts looked like this:

53 / 9 :: Ryan Grant // 51 / 11 :: Chester Rogers // 46 / 15 :: Eric Ebron // 45 / 7 :: Zach Pascal // 25 / 2 :: Marcus Johnson

The Jets have shaved almost 13% off the league average aDOT on the year, but they have allowed an average catch rate and have been below average after the catch. In all, this has led to them being only about 5% better than the league average in expected yards allowed per target — so while this has been a solid pass defense, they are by no means a “shy away” matchup for players who should see volume.

So far this year, the way to beat the Jets’ defense has been with short crossing routes (particularly short crossing routes moving from right to left) — an approach that Kenny Golladay, Golden Tate, Jarvis Landry, and Dede Westbrook have all taken advantage of (laughably, the Broncos decided last week they were too classy to use Emmanuel Sanders in this way, in spite of the fact that this is exactly what he is built to do; he still went 9-72-0 on short-area targets). This is essentially the exact way the Colts have been using Rogers since T.Y. Hilton went down. After an 8-85-0 line two weeks ago and an 8-66-0 line last week, he shapes up as a safe, high-upside bet.

The second strongest bet on Indy is Ebron, who has averaged 12 targets per game across the last three weeks, and who is being used essentially like the number one wide receiver with Hilton out of action. He runs plenty of short crossers as well, and his speed (4.60 40 time) matches up favorably with Rogers’ speed (4.56 40 time), giving him an equal opportunity at hitting. The Colts have proactively schemed the ball to Ebron in the red zone, as his 12 targets inside the 20 rank third in the NFL this year among all players. Rogers has only three targets inside the 20, and none inside the 10.

Ryan Grant offers little after the catch, but he’ll be a reliable “floor” piece if the Colts continue to lean pass-heavy. Pascal caught only one of his seven targets last week and had a couple brutal miscues, but he should soak up five to nine looks yet again with sneaky upside if he plays more like the Week 4 version of himself (6-56-1 on 10 targets). He’ll also run a few routes down the right sideline, where the Jets have had some issues, making him an intriguing large-field tourney piece.

COLTS RUN OFFENSE

The one time this year when Marlon Mack, Nyheim Hines, and Jordan Wilkins were all active together (Week 2), Mack played 18 snaps and saw 11 touches, Wilkins played 23 snaps and had 12 touches, and Hines played 25 snaps and saw five touches. It’s tough to get a clear read on usage from that game, as that’s also the only time the Colts played with a lead and were able to lean on the run. Given how ineffective Wilkins has been this year, I think we will see Mack take over most of the early-down work while Hines will continue to operate as the primary piece in the pass game. The Colts may ease Mack back in this week in a timeshare with Wilkins, in order to protect his health.

Either of Mack or Hines could hit for a long play (and any of these three could be given a scoring opportunity), but the best bet for points to pile up is Hines, who has target counts on the year of nine, one, five, 11, and nine. Hines has been solid in the pass game, and another six to eight targets is not outside his range of possibilities this week.

JETS PASS OFFENSE

Injuries continue to pile up for the Colts’ defense, as starting safety Clayton Geathers will miss this week with a neck injury, while stud rookie linebacker Darius Leonard (who leads the NFL in tackles in spite of missing all of last week) missed practice on Wednesday. Leonard has said he expects to play, which would be a big boost for the Colts — especially for their run defense.

The Colts’ upstart defense ranks fifth in adjusted sack rate through five games, while the Jets’ offensive line ranks 20th in this category. Even with the injury issues on the Colts, they have been very strong vs the pass early in the year — allowing the third-lowest aDOT in the NFL, while impressively pairing this low aDOT with the seventh lowest YAC allowed per reception (typically, low aDOT teams allow more yards after the catch). Opponents make up for this with a high catch rate, which is the key to piling up fantasy points against the Colts.

Every team that has had success so far against the Colts’ defense has done so by attacking their zone with crossing routes. Downfield passes have repeatedly failed vs Indy, while players have been able to pick up receptions while moving horizontally or diagonally from one side of the field to the other.

While Robby Anderson or Terrelle Pryor (or even Jermaine Kearse) could theoretically hit in this spot (it only takes one play, after all), the only receiver on the Jets who profiles well in this matchup is Quincy Enunwa, who has target counts on the year of 10, 11, eight, eight, and five, in spite of Sam Darnold topping 34 pass attempts only once. It is worth noting that the only wide receiver to top 100 yards against the Colts this year has been DeAndre Hopkins.

JETS RUN OFFENSE

While wide receivers have had a tough time shaking open for big gains downfield against the Colts, James White (10-77-1) and Chris Thompson (13-92-0) each had big games catching passes out of the backfield against them. Indy typically plays with only six men in the box, which filters action toward running backs — both on the ground and through the air.

With the Jets going run-heavy this year, Isaiah Crowell has touch counts of 10, 14, 18, five, and 16, while Bilal Powell has touch counts of 13, 10, 14, 12, and 20. This has been a clear and legitimate split to begin the year, with Crowell playing 129 snaps and Powell playing 162. Crowell has four carries inside the 10, while Powell has three. Powell has doubled Crow in targets (16 to eight).

If betting on one guy, Powell is the slightly preferred option, as he should see a couple more touches than his backfield mate and he matches up well in the pass game, though it won’t be surprising to see either of these guys post a solid game. (Conversely, it won’t be surprising to see either of these guys fall shy of 10 points).

From a “Cheat Code” perspective (playing both RBs together and treating them like one high-priced back), these guys have combined touch counts on the year of 23, 24, 32, 17, and 36 — which is lower guaranteed usage than Seahawks backs have, in a tougher matchup. With that said: the place to use the Cheat Code is on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, where tighter pricing sometimes leads to creative roster construction solutions — and on those sites, these two have combined point totals (starting from Week 1) of 32.7 // 24.9 // 26.4 // 10.5 // 42.0.

The dud came in a blowout loss against the Jags, while the games in Week 1 (32.7) and Week 5 (42.0) came in blowout wins. The likeliest scenario here is something in the range of those second and third games, which is on the bottom end of what would make this a justifiable play. But in tourneys, we do always say that the time to play the Cheat Code is when “the two guys cost the same as a single high-priced back, and they can go for 24 to 40 points.” Technically, they fit that definition this week.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

This is not a massively exciting game from a “points on the scoreboard” perspective, but if the slow-paced Jets continue to stall out in their drives, this game does become interesting from a “total plays” perspective — making it an interesting game to target on FantasyDraft and DraftKings, in particular, where PPR points can pile up.

Chester Rogers and Eric Ebron are primary guys to consider on this slate for volume-driven floor and respectable ceiling, while Pascal also stands out to me as an interesting tourney play, with legitimate “dud” floor, but also with legitimate 20-point upside. He’ll be on the field plenty and should soak up another five to nine targets.

Quincy Enunwa is interesting on the other side, though his price has crept up high enough on DraftKings that I will probably look somewhere else myself, while his touchdown and yardage ceiling are a little less sexy on FanDuel, where his PPR skills don’t play quite as nicely. Enunwa is priced a little lower on FantasyDraft than on DraftKings (10.3% of the salary cap, compared to 11.2%), so he becomes a bit more interesting on there.

Both backfields are messy timeshares, but you could try to “guess right” on the three-way split for Indy, or you could take the respectable points available on either of the Jets backs, while giving outside consideration to a Cheat Code pairing.

With such a low-scoring game environment the likeliest scenario, my eyes aren’t popping over either QB, but Luck could post a nice game.

I’ll probably look elsewhere for DST, though the Colts should pick up a few sacks and pick off one or two passes on the road.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE // Full “Updates” List

Isaiah Crowell is expected to play on Sunday, but he is a game-time decision. If he misses, Bilal Powell will become a 20-touch back, and he will immediately vault to the top of the running back pile, as a high-floor, high-ceiling play. Again: expect Crow to play; but keep an eye on this one Sunday morning when Inactives are released about an hour and a half before kickoff.

SEAHAWKS // RAIDERS (LONDON) OVERVIEW

The 1-4 Raiders and the 2-3 Seahawks travel to London this week to face one another at Wembley Stadium. Neither of these teams looks particularly good this year, with red zone scoring (25th in red zone touchdown rate) and “scared quarterback play” being the main issue for an Oakland team that has otherwise moved the ball well (sixth in the NFL in yards per game), and with lack of creativity on offense and a poor run defense (29th in rushing yards allowed per game) the main culprits on Seattle. Because the Seahawks play in the same division as the Cardinals and 49ers, they may be able to pile up enough wins this year to make a run at the playoffs — making this an important game for them as they look to lock in every win possible.

Vegas has the Seahawks installed as early three-point favorites, with a moderate scoring expectation for this game. The likeliest path for these teams to rack up their projected points is on the ground, as Seattle ranks 31st in the NFL in passing play percentage, while the Raiders (13th in passing play percentage) should lean a bit more run-heavy against this Seattle team. Each team plays at a moderate pace and has had trouble sustaining drives (Oakland entered last week ranked 21st in drive success rate, while the Seahawks ranked 28th), and each defense has done a decent job slowing down opponent drives (Seattle is 10th in drive success rate on defense; Oakland ranks 13th). Oakland has been susceptible to big plays, however — allowing the third-most pass plays of 20+ yards and the seventh-most rush plays of 20+ yards — while each team has been poor against the run (ranking 26th — Seattle — and 27th in yards allowed per carry). Barring a boneheaded Brian Schottenheimer game plan, Seattle should lean run-heavy once again, while Oakland should respond by keeping the ball on the ground as well.

SEAHAWKS PASS OFFENSE

Seattle’s offensive line has been one of the worst pass blocking units in the league this year, but they will match up this week with an Oakland defense that is near the bottom of the league in pass rush efficiency, and that ranks sixth worst in the league in average depth of target allowed. Oakland has also continued their mistake-prone ways, with the most YAC allowed per reception in the league.

Over the last three weeks, Seattle has gone with an interesting style of play — giving 96 total carries to Mike Davis, Chris Carson, and Rashaad Penny (Penny has 12 of those carries — with none last week, when Davis and Carson were both healthy), while asking Russell Wilson to pass the ball only 73 times in that stretch. Russ also has only six total carries across the last three weeks.

We’ll get to the rushing attack in a moment, but first: with Seattle going 2-1 over the last three weeks (and nearly topping the Rams in Week 5) with this approach, it seems likely to continue unless Oakland unexpectedly hops out to a big lead. Since Oakland’s best means of moving the ball will also be on the ground, this seems unlikely to happen — and as such, we can pencil in the Seahawks for a sub-50% pass rate in this spot, which should lead to another 25 to 29 pass attempts for Russ. Even with the deep ball issues on Oakland, Seattle will be difficult to bet on for massive upside through the air. Russ has not topped 200 passing yards in three consecutive weeks.

Most pass plays right now, Seattle is sending two (or sometimes three) guys downfield, while dropping the tight end and the running back into the short areas of the field. With teams having to respect the rushing ability of Russ (and having to respect Tyler Lockett and now Doug Baldwin deep), the running backs (10 catches over the last three weeks) and tight ends (10 catches over the last three weeks) are picking up big chunks of the total available receptions on this offense. With Russ completing only 48 pass attempts the last three weeks, 41.7% of these completions have gone to backs and tight ends.

Although volume is a concern for Seattle wide receivers (as a group, they have an average of only 9.3 wide receiver catches per game over the last three weeks), deep balls should remain part of the game plan against an Oakland team that can be flamed downfield. Tyler Lockett has a respectable aDOT of 13.5, and he is seeing some short looks mixed in with his deep balls. He has target counts across these three weeks of six, six, and five, and he should be in that range again — giving him moderate floor and moderate ceiling.

Doug Baldwin saw only one target last week (a dump-off that went for one yard), but he played 53 of a possible 60 snaps and ran 24 of a possible 26 pass routes. He saw seven targets the week before, and he should return to the “five to eight” target range again in this one. Oakland plays much better defense on the outside than they do over the middle, where Baldwin primarily operates. With the lack of Oakland pass rush, he and Lockett will each have a couple opportunities for big plays deep.

Nick Vannett continues to produce limited upside on limited opportunities. He ran only 14 pass routes last week, but saw four targets. He’s a risky bet with what is primarily a dump-off role. He’ll need a touchdown in order to pay off.

SEAHAWKS RUN OFFENSE

While you could bet on unexpected game flow (or unexpected game plan) in large-field tourneys and ignore the Seattle rushing attack while loading up on Russell Wilson and his pass catchers, the likeliest scenario here is another run-heavy game for the Seahawks after Chris Carson had 32 carries in Week 3, Mike Davis and Rashaad Penny combined for 30 rush attempts in Week 4, and Carson/Davis combined for 31 rush attempts in Week 5. Last week, Carson played 35 snaps to 25 for Davis. Oakland has been most susceptible right up the gut, where the Seahawks have been most effective. Because the secondary has to respect the deep ball and the linebackers have to respect the possibility of Russ keeping the ball on action to the outside, there should be even more space against this run defense than other teams have had. Expect another 30+ combined touches for Carson and Davis, with each guy mixing in fairly interchangeably. Carson should out-touch Davis, but it will likely be close. Only five teams have allowed more yards per carry than the Raiders, and only four teams have allowed more rushing yards per game. Only one team has allowed more touchdowns to running backs.

RAIDERS PASS OFFENSE

Seattle has been strong against the pass early in the year, allowing below-average marks in both aDOT and catch rate — and given the issues Seattle has had on the ground (26th in yards allowed per carry, 29th in rushing yards allowed per game), teams are generally turning to the run against them. Only seven teams have faced more rush attempts per game than Seattle, while only five teams have faced fewer pass attempts per game. (Oakland happens to be one of those teams that has faced fewer pass attempts. Again: this game should skew run-heavy.)

There has been no “clear way” to attack Seattle through the air this year, with only six teams allowing fewer receptions to the tight end position, and with the Seahawks ranking comfortably in the top half of the NFL in yards allowed per game to wide receivers. The best way to beat this team is to hope for time in the pocket, and for a coverage breakdown deep. In a game with tight coverage across the board, we should have concerns about the efficiency we will see from Derek Carr, who plays the quarterback position like a pure cash game player: shying away from risk at all costs. Look for Carr to settle for dump-offs instead of testing deep as often as he should.

With all that said: Amari Cooper posted a strong game against a similarly tough Cleveland pass defense (low aDOT, low catch rate allowed) — putting up 8-128-1 on 12 targets. Part of that was dictated by game flow in a matchup that turned into a pass-heavy shootout, which we should not expect here; but again: if you want to bet on unexpected game flow, he would become an interesting piece. Jordy Nelson has target counts on the year of four, four, eight, eight, and four, and has continued to produce a high catch rate and solid YAC on these looks. Martavis Bryant should see three to five targets downfield, giving him boom/bust potential. In spite of his tough matchup, Jared Cook should remain involved, and is another piece to consider if betting on unexpected game flow.

RAIDERS RUN OFFENSE

There has been a clear pattern in the Raiders’ backfield to date:

Marshawn Lynch sees the bulk of the carries. The Raiders waste a few touches per game on Doug Martin. And when Oakland falls behind, they speed up the pace and turn to Jalen Richard for his pass-catching chops.

Although he saw only 11 touches last week when the Raiders fell behind by two touchdowns before halftime, Lynch saw touch counts across his previous three games of 23, 22, and 20. He has exactly two or three catches in every game this year (he tends to get one designed screen play and two or three dump-offs), and he has 18 to 20 carries in each of those three spiked-usage games. Seattle has allowed four rushing touchdowns to running backs — sixth worst in the league — while only three running backs in the NFL have more red zone carries than Lynch.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

If multi-entering large-field tourneys, you could make a case for targeting one of these passing attacks — betting on a scenario in which one team jumps out in front of the other, and pass attempts spike as a result. Because each team has upside when going pass-heavy, this is the sort of bet that could pay off nicely if things go differently than expected — but of course, the likeliest scenario is a fairly close game that yields a run-heavy approach on both sides of the ball, with touchdowns on both teams likeliest to come from the running backs. I could see myself taking a shot on Baldwin or Lockett this week on one of the three teams I will be playing in the $3k Milly Maker — simply because there is plenty of upside for the price — but I can’t pretend that the floor is solid.

I have a lot of interest in Seattle’s running backs, with an expectation of around 32 to 35 total touches between Carson and Davis — with Carson likely to see 18 to 20 touches, and with Davis in line for around 12 to 15 looks. They are unlikely to combine for more than three or four receptions, so yards and touchdowns will need to pile up — but against this Raiders team, there should be a clear opportunity for around 130 combined rushing yards and one or two touchdowns. If betting on one guy, I’ll lean Carson. There is also a case on DraftKings and FantasyDraft — with tighter pricing, and with no “underpriced” high-priced running backs — to play both guys together in classic Cheat Code style. Obviously, your roster will be sunk if Seattle somehow fails on the ground or if they decide to move away from their run-heavy approach; but since Seattle switched to a run-heavy approach, “Seahawks running backs” have posted combined DK/FDraft scores of 23.9 (Week 3), 36.3 (Week 4), and 32.2 (Week 5), and this is the best matchup this group has had in this stretch. Some people will tell you that you limit your roster’s overall upside by playing both guys together — but it’s difficult to average 12 to 18 points per game from a pair of low-priced guys, and these two should provide fairly locked-in points while allowing you to spend up for 30-point-per-player upside in other spots. Pairing these two probably won’t get the job done in massive-field stuff, but it should work beautifully in cash games, single-entry tourneys, three-entry-max tourneys, and any field of around 10k entries or fewer.

I also have interest in going back to the well on Marshawn Lynch after his dud last week. There are several other running backs to consider if I soak up two spots with Seattle RBs, but Marshawn will at least make the list.

BILLS // TEXANS OVERVIEW

The Bills have pulled off a pair of upset wins to land a surprising 2-3 record — with their latest win coming just in time for the 2-3 Texans to be reminded that they cannot take this opponent for granted. The Texans have won back-to-back games after starting the year 0-3, with those losses coming by seven points, three points, and five points. (Both Texans wins have come by three points as well.)

After waiting to make sure Deshaun Watson (chest) was on track to play this week, Vegas installed Houston as 10 point favorites. Given the inconsistency Houston has shown and the pass defense the Bills boast, this game may play closer than that line suggests (even if the Texans pull away at the end), but this game clearly tilts in favor of the home team.

Houston has kept their foot on the gas on offense, ranking fourth in the league in pace of play, while the Bills surprisingly rank 18th in this category, as Brian Daboll (who has bounced around the NFL, but who came up with the Patriots and also coached with Andy Reid and Nick Saban) has tried to build up an aggressive mindset on this offense.

Each team leans toward the run, with the Texans ranking 17th in pass play rate and the Bills ranking 29th. Each team also ranks in the bottom half of the league in drive success rate (17th for Houston; 31st for Buffalo), while each defense ranks in the top half in drive success rate. Houston ranks fourth in the NFL in yards per game on offense, but they are taking on a Buffalo team that has allowed the sixth fewest yards per game. The Bills, of course, rank 31st in yards per game, while the Texans rank 14th in yards allowed per game.

BILLS PASS OFFENSE

Josh Allen has been held to 22 or fewer pass attempts in each Buffalo win, but he does have a respectable 33 attempts in each of his losses. This has led to an average of 17 completions per game in those spots, which is close to the “ceiling” expectation for this offense. Obviously, we are not targeting the Bills for volume (well…so far, we have not been targeting the Bills at all…), so the question becomes: is there any way to isolate a potential “splash play” on the Bills, given Allen’s ability to throw deep? Obviously, this would be a thin tourney approach no matter what, but here’s what this matchup gives us to work with:

Typically, when I write a setup like that, I then go research things, and I come back with the facts I found. What I found, however, is that in five games for the Texans (Patriots // Titans // Giants // Colts // Cowboys), T.Y. Hilton is really the only receiver who has been able to beat them deep. Houston ranks middle of the pack in pass plays allowed of 20+ yards and only three teams have allowed more pass plays of 40+ yards, but much of this has been YAC related. Of course, Houston has been fortunate to face a slew of teams that don’t emphasize downfield throws, so take that for what it’s worth; but this is the Bills we are talking about here. Not that you were desperate to roster a Bills pass catcher, but it looks like this is simply a “hope and pray” spot if taking a shot.

The guy to “hope and pray” on would be Zay Jones, who has target counts on the year of six, three, one, seven, and four, and who is the best bet for a deep connection.

BILLS RUN OFFENSE

Houston has been one of the toughest teams in the league to run on, allowing only 3.4 yards per carry (fourth best in the league) — bad news for a Buffalo offense that wants to lean on the run as much as they can. The Bills rank sixth in the league in rush attempts, but they rank 28th in yards per carry, as teams do not respect the ability of Kelvin Benjamin and Zay Jones to create separation, which is allowing them to think “run first” in this matchup. Buffalo has a long run of only 27 yards, and it seems likely that they will be trading LeSean McCoy before the deadline, which gives them incentive to limit his opportunities for injury in the meantime.

If taking a shot on this spot, McCoy is obviously the guy to chase, after Buffalo emphasized him last week with 24 carries and three targets. Perhaps he could break out for a couple long runs and a touchdown if his number gets called in the same manner this week.

TEXANS PASS OFFENSE

After a rough Week 1, Buffalo has returned to their 2017 form against the pass — impressively ranking top five this year in aDOT allowed and top eight in YAC allowed per reception. The Bills have been above-average at every area of the field except the deep middle, while they have held the following alpha receivers to the corresponding stat lines:

John Brown :: 3-44-1 (on a season-low four targets)

Keenan Allen :: 6-67-0 (on his second lowest target count of the year)

Stefon Diggs :: 4-17-0 (on his second lowest target count of the year)

Corey Davis :: 4-49-0 (on his second lowest target count of the year)

Adam Thielen also required a season-high 19 targets to go 14-105-0 (his second lowest yardage total on the year), while Davante Adams required a season-high 14 targets to go 8-81-0 (his third lowest yardage total on the year, and his only game without a touchdown).

Any way you slice it, this is a tough matchup for DeAndre Hopkins, who should see a ton of Tre’Davious White, who has faced only 18 targets on the year, and has allowed a total line of 10-118-0.  We know that Hopkins gets his targets regardless, but efficiency will be tougher to come by in this spot, which will require him to break off some big plays or a multi-touchdown game in order to justify his price tag. Expect the Texans to move Hopkins into the slot plenty and to flatten out his routes (both short and deep) in order to give him the best possible shot at hitting in this spot.

One week after being aggressively used with jet sweep action that allowed him to run what essentially functioned as “running back” pass routes, Keke Coutee was used as more of a traditional slot receiver last week. While Hopkins is likely to see his double-digit looks regardless, Coutee once again sets up as the best means of picking up underneath yardage, as he will run both the “short area slot routes” that Keenan Allen and Adam Thielen had decent success on against this team, while also running the flare-out “running back” routes that allowed Melvin Gordon (6-38-2) to have moderate success in this spot. If I am known as “the Courtland Sutton guy,” hopefully there is space for me to be known as “the Keke Coutee guy” as well. Another six to eight targets with one or two carries should be Coutee’s usage range here, giving him a solid PPR floor with nice “ball in his hands” upside.

Will Fuller will likely take a backseat for another week, in a matchup that sets up similar to what he dealt with last week against Dallas. With Coutee healthy, Fuller is not needed on underneath stuff as much, and this matchup sets up poorly for the deep ball. Fuller has the talent to win in any matchup, but usage expectations should be low once again — requiring him to hit for a couple huge plays in order to be worth a spot on your roster.

Last week in a matchup that set up similarly, Ryan Griffin also saw nine targets — hauling in six for 65 scoreless yards. The last time we had any remote interest in a matchup that set up well for Griffin, he goose-egged on five targets (his second highest target count on the year), so obviously this is a high-variance option; but this game sets up for Griffin to see five or more targets again. Incredibly, he ranks 13th in the entire NFL in red zone targets, with eight. He has one catch on these looks.

TEXANS RUN OFFENSE

Last week, in place of an injured Lamar Miller, Alfred Blue totaled only 46 yards on 20 carries, while fooling box score watchers with a solid overall line boosted by 8-73-0 through the air, against a Cowboys team that bleeds receptions to running backs. Miller is expected back this week, and his 3.9 yards per carry will likely begin to split time with Blue’s 3.3 yards per carry. Buffalo has been solid against the run, ranking ninth in yards allowed per carry and 14th in DVOA. With neither guy likely to see more than 65% of the Texans’ snaps, you’ll need a multi-touchdown game for one of these guys to really justify a roster spot.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

I will not be touching the Bills’ offense — and I feel more comfortable betting on Houston in tourneys than in cash games, as they will likely be looking to capitalize on short fields from Josh Allen mistakes (rather than being able to pick up chunk gains and/or drive the entire field with ease). If leaning on the Texans, however, the key guys for me are Hopkins and Coutee. Hopkins’ route tree changes enough from game to game (adjusting for matchup) that he will still see his double-digit looks, and you could feel comfortable taking a tourney shot on the idea that “targets trump matchup” for a guy this talented. Coutee is a borderline cash game play on full-PPR sites, and he’s an interesting tourney piece given what he can do with the ball in his hands. The likeliest scenario here is something like a 6-50-0 line, but if he breaks off a long play or scores another touchdown, he could provide great value for the price.

Naturally, Deshaun Watson is always in play in tourneys — though this is not the best spot — and the flow chart of “which defense is playing the Bills?” is in play this week as well.

CHARGERS // BROWNS OVERVIEW

From a real-life perspective, this is a surprisingly intriguing game five weeks into the season, as the Chargers’ only losses this year have come against the undefeated Chiefs and Rams, while the Browns are 2-2-1, with a close loss to Oakland and a home win over the Ravens since Baker Mayfield took over under center. One of the biggest challenges for quarterbacks moving from college to the NFL is how often they have to make throws when guys are covered — either anticipating the receiver coming open, or “throwing the receiver open.” This is something Mayfield has been awesome at early on the NFL field, as he is constantly looking to make aggressive throws downfield instead of checking things down. Vegas has given respect to each of these defenses, with the Chargers installed as slim one-point favorites on the road in a game with an Over/Under of only 44.5 — but there is enough firepower on each offense that there is also a good 10% to 15% chance that this game turns into a shootout.

The Browns have been refreshingly aggressive, ranking third in pace of play, while the Chargers have played up-tempo at times, ranking ninth in situation neutral pace of play (though they rank 31st overall). Cleveland has run the second most plays per game in the NFL, while also allowing the most plays per game — and while this is boosted by a couple overtime appearances, this is still a “play boost” spot for the Chargers. The Chargers’ offense (sixth in drive success rate) has a strength-on-strength matchup against a Cleveland defense that ranks third in drive success rate allowed. While the Browns gave up a fluky-high 45 points to the Raiders, they held the Steelers to 21 points, the Saints to 21 points (in New Orleans), the Jets to 17 points, and the Ravens to 12 points.

CHARGERS PASS OFFENSE

Led by sensational rookie Denzel Ward, the Browns have shaved almost six and a half percent off the league average aDOT, while also allowing the second lowest catch rate in the league. With Cleveland playing a safety deep most of the time and attacking the ball underneath, YAC is a problem for them (they have allowed the third highest YAC per reception in the league), which leads to some boom/bust for passing attacks — as receivers see fewer receptions against this team, but still have opportunities for big plays with the ball in their hands.

The Browns have faced a brutal lineup of receivers so far, and among Antonio Brown // JuJu Smith-Schuster // Michael Thomas // Quincy Enunwa // Amari Cooper // Jordy Nelson // John Brown, the only guys to top 100 yards were JuJu and Amari. JuJu got there on one big YAC play off a short crossing route, while Amari got there on one successful deep ball up the right sideline and one big YAC play up the left sideline.

Keenan Allen has seen the sort of usage that is likeliest to turn into a big play against this defense, but with an aDOT of 8.2 and only two games this year of double-digit targets, he’ll need a broken play or multiple touchdowns in order to pay off his salary. Until his price tag gets adjusted down, he’ll continue to be a tough guy to bet on in this offense that has so many weapons it can spread the ball around to.

Mike Williams and Tyrell Williams will see work up the sidelines, which is a poor bet against the Browns, but deep shots are worth a mention in any matchup.

Virgil Green has yet to top three targets in a game, while Antonio Gates has yet to top three catches. Would you be scheming plays to these guys if you had Keenan, Mike and Tyrell, Melvin Gordon, and Austin Ekeler available ahead of them?

CHARGERS RUN OFFENSE

Cleveland has allowed a middling 4.1 yards per carry — though if we take away the Marshawn Lynch “beast mode” run of 52 yards, they drop to a far more respectable 3.77 yards allowed per carry, which is backed up by their number eight DVOA ranking against the run.

In spite of already having faced Conner and Kamara, the Browns have allowed middling production through the air to running backs, with an average line of 5.6 receptions, 50.8 receiving yards, and 0 touchdowns.

While that’s the bad news in this matchup, the good news is that the Chargers have continued to use Gordon and Ekeler creatively and consistently. These two have scored nine of the Chargers’ 16 touchdowns on the year, and they’ll be in line for scoring opportunities once again, with heavy work in the pass game as well. While “long drives” will be difficult to come by for the Chargers, the fast pace at which the Browns play will lead to enough plays on the other side for each of these two to pile up touches — and the more touches each of these guys has, the more chances of an explosive play.

Consider Gordon a solid-floor, high-ceiling play, with a slimmer shot than normal for him to hit that ceiling, but with it still clearly in view. Consider Ekeler’s floor to be lower than normal, given that he is given fewer opportunities to hit, but his ceiling remains intact as well.

BROWNS PASS OFFENSE

The Chargers’ defense is much tougher to get a feel for, as they struggled against the Chiefs and Rams, and their other three games have been against Josh Allen, C.J. Beathard, and Derek Carr — holding those teams to 293, 364, and 289 total yards, respectively. While the Chargers do not have great sack numbers on the year without Joey Bosa, they are still getting pressure on the quarterback, and the Browns rank 30th on offense in adjusted sack rate.

The most interesting matchup in this spot will be the downfield shots Baker Mayfield has been looking to take so far this year, as the Chargers have a rookie superstar of their own in safety Derwin James. James has shown tremendous range early in the year, and he makes it difficult for quarterbacks to manipulate him with their eyes — often holding his spot in the middle of the field until the QB commits to throw (at which point, his range comes into play). Jared Goff is actually the only quarterback who has topped 300 yards against the Chargers, as Patrick Mahomes maxed out at 256 yards in this matchup — his only game under 300 yards this year.

If we take away Tyreek Hill, the best way to beat this defense consistently has been with short passes over the middle — hoping for yards after the catch — which sets up best for Jarvis Landry and David Njoku. Across Mayfield’s two starts, Njoku has seen target counts of seven and 11, while Landry has seen target counts of 10 and 10. Njoku has hauled in only 11 of these 18 targets, while Landry has caught only nine of his 20 looks, but the usage should be there once again.

Rashard Higgins has had a productive downfield partnership with Mayfield, but he’ll miss this week, which will theoretically open more targets for Antonio Callaway. Higgins’ plays were driven more by excellent route-running and instincts than by athletic talent, and the plays he was making are not plays that Callaway seems mentally equipped to make at the moment. He’s purely a bet-on-talent play. He played 55 snaps last week, but saw only five targets. He has 13 catches on 30 targets this year.

The actual snaps Higgins left behind were picked up by UDFA Derrick Willies, who played 26 snaps down the stretch last week after seeing the field for only four offensive snaps before that — with three catches on five targets for 61 yards. Higgins has become an ultimate “do the little things right” receiver, so Willies — a raw player — is unlikely to step right into what has been a productive role in this offense; but he should see another three to six looks in this spot, and the guesswork involved here leaves upside for more.

BROWNS RUN OFFENSE

Carlos Hyde has 16 to 23 carries in every game this year, though he has seen only six catches through five games, making him a “yardage and touchdown” guy. Cleveland ranks a respectable 15th in adjusted line yards on offense, while the Chargers rank 20th on defense. The Chargers are also 16th in yards allowed per carry, at 4.1. The Chargers have allowed only two rushing touchdowns on the year, compared to 11 passing touchdowns, though Hyde does continue to dominate looks close to the goal line, with nine carries inside the five yard line — second in the league to only Todd Gurley. Ultimately, this should be treated as a middling spot for a guy who has yet to top 100 rushing yards, but whose workload is secure, and who has five rushing touchdowns on the year. If Hyde fails to score, he’ll disappoint; if he punches in a touchdown or two, he’ll prove to be a nice piece.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

That was a lot of research (and words) to discover that I’m not interested in a whole lot in this game, though Gordon and Ekeler make sense in tourneys for the upside each of them carries, while Gordon can always have a usage-based case made for him in cash games in this high-powered offense. I’ll almost certainly leave receivers alone on the Chargers, while the lack of efficiency so far in the Mayfield-to-Landry connection will make it tough for me to chase here against a defense that appears to be regaining form. Njoku is an intriguing upside piece, given the state of the tight end position this week. Each defense is also in play, given the playmaking skills each side boasts, though neither stands out as a top option.

I do have interest in game stacking here if looking for under-owned upside in large-field tourneys. This is not the likeliest spot to hit; but if this game turns into the sort of shootout the Browns ended up in a couple weeks ago, there are some serious “upside” pieces that could pay off in a big way.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE // Full “Updates” List

Derrick Willies is out for the Browns — which may not seem like a big deal, but they are running thin at outside receiver. Expect the Browns to shift a little more run-heavy, but also expect them to get a couple extra targets to Jarvis Landry and David Njoku. Landry has the better matchup, but don’t write off Njoku as a tough-matchup, but high-ceiling play.

STEELERS // BENGALS OVERVIEW

The Steelers have had an underwhelming start to the season, with a 2-2-1 record, but they have a shot to get right back in the thick of the AFC North race if they are able to knock off the 4-1 Bengals on the road. Unsurprisingly, Vegas is giving the nod to the home team in this spot, with the Bengals carrying a slim 2.5 point edge in the early-week line. This game opened with the second highest Over/Under on the main slate (third highest on the FantasyDraft main slate), and it is one of only two games that appears to shape up nicely for a shootout.

Each of these teams is playing at an above-average pace (Pittsburgh ranks sixth in pace of play, while Cincy ranks 11th), and each team ranks top five in the NFL in “most opponent plays allowed.” This is a pace-up spot that should lead to a few more plays than normal on both sides of the ball.

Shootout upside in this game is further enhanced by the red zone stats on each team — as the Steelers rank second in the NFL in red zone touchdown rate, and the Bengals rank fifth. Pittsburgh ranks 13th in red zone touchdown defense, while Cincy ranks all the way down at 25th. Cincy also ranks third in drive success rate on offense — and while Pittsburgh ranks a disappointing 18th, they will take on a Bengals defense that ranks 29th in this category, which should help the visiting Steelers to keep drives going throughout the game.

STEELERS PASS OFFENSE

Five weeks into the season, the Bengals have retained most of the old Paul Guenther defensive concepts that they have been running for years — rarely rushing more than four, and playing a zone defense that aims to clog up all areas of the field, forcing teams to march the length of the field and complete drives at the end. This worked well in 2015 to 2017, as Cincy finished middle of the pack in drive success rate each of those years (reminder: drive success rate measures the percentage of “sets of downs” that result in a first down or a touchdown; or, to put that another way, “first downs and touchdowns equal a good drive success rate”), but ranking top seven each of those years in red zone touchdown rate. In other words: a classic “bend but don’t break” approach that allowed teams to move the ball but kept them out of the end zone. This year, however, this approach has collapsed with Cincy playing so poorly in the red zone. This could change as the season moves along — but for now, consider this to be a “bend but don’t break” defense that continues to bend all the way to the end of the drive.

The Bengals rank ninth in yards allowed per pass attempt — a result of elite tackling, as they are middle of the pack in catch rate and aDOT, but top five in YAC allowed per reception. Explosive plays are tough to come by against this team (Cincy’s 15 pass plays allowed of 20+ yards is only four behind league leaders Tennessee and Jacksonville, at 11 apiece), but the Steelers should be able to march up and down the field.

Although we prefer to roster the Steelers in matchups where they are able to attack downfield (“attacking downfield against man coverage” is the optimal setup for them — see: “vs KC”), Ben Roethlisberger should still be able to post solid numbers in this spot. Explosive numbers may be difficult to come by, however; in his last six games against the Bengals, Ben has zero games of 300 yards, three games of one or zero touchdown passes, and only one game of three touchdown throws.

A big part of the reason Ben has failed to put up big numbers vs Cincy is the way this team has managed to slow down Antonio Brown, as he has topped 100 yards in only two of his last seven contests against them. To be clear: A.B. has still posted solid numbers in most games against the Bengals, but he has had a tougher time posting those 25-point FanDuel, 35-point DraftKings/FantasyDraft games that we really pay up for him in the hopes of landing. The Bengals can tilt their zone toward A.B.’s side of the field, tightening up the available windows in the spaces where he is running routes. This approach limits the monster mismatch created by A.B.’s route-running skills and short-area quickness, while also allowing Cincinnati to throw off timing by being physical at the line.

In the first meeting between these teams last year, Pittsburgh worked around the Bengals’ pass D by running the ball 35 times with Le’Veon Bell. In their second matchup, Ben posted one of his best games against this Cincy team when the Bengals jumped out to an early lead and the Steelers decided to target Antonio Brown relentlessly. Ben went 24 of 40 for 290 yards and two touchdowns, while A.B. picked up 101 yards and a touchdown on eight catches (16 targets).

The likeliest scenario here is a run-leaning approach for the Steelers, though the second likeliest scenario calls for the Bengals to jump out to a lead, and for the Steelers to respond by targeting A.B. heavily. As we witnessed last week: when the Steelers are having a hard time moving the ball the way they want to, they will turn to A.B. more aggressively.

Not that this excludes JuJu Smith-Schuster, whose role has grown since these teams met last year. Before his four-target dud last week, JuJu had seen at least eight targets in all four games, with 11 or more looks in three contests. Expect another eight to 11 looks in this one, with upside for more. His aDOT of 8.0 isn’t the best for upside-hunting against a defense that capitalizes on tackling well, but Pittsburgh will be picking up yards and scoring opportunities throughout the game and JuJu will have a chance to get in on the action.

Behind these two, James Washington carries theoretical upside as the Steelers’ primary deep threat.

Last week, Vance McDonald and Jesse James split tight end routes almost down the middle; it won’t be a surprise if one of them pops in this spot against a defense that has allowed the eighth-most tight end receptions on the year, but it will be difficult to predict which guy that will be, and each guy also carries a dud floor. Given his awesome YAC upside, Vance would be the preferred play.

STEELERS RUN OFFENSE

Last week, the Steelers made a point of getting back to James Conner — not only giving him 21 carries and four targets, but also lining him up at wide receiver again at the expense of Ryan Switzer. Conner played 73.8% of the team’s snaps, so this is not quite the “Le’Veon Bell role” that he carried in Week 1, but his usage mirrors what Joe Mixon provides on the other side of this game, making each as intriguing as the other. Conner has the better matchup, vs a Cincy team that ranks 23rd in yards allowed per carry. The recent return of Vontaze Burfict could change this, but Frank Gore and Kenyan Drake had no trouble picking up chunk gains on the ground last week at Cincinnati.

BENGALS PASS OFFENSE

After ranking first in the NFL last year in sacks, Pittsburgh’s pass rush came alive last week vs Atlanta, catapulting this team back to the top of the sacks leaderboard. The Steelers were flying around the field last Sunday, playing ultra aggressive ball and constantly forcing Matt Ryan to either take a sack or get rid of the ball more quickly than he wanted to. Pittsburgh has faced one of the deepest aDOTs in the league this year, but they have stuck to an average expected yards per target by allowing a low catch rate and tackling well after the catch. With their pass rush back in business, it will now become tougher for opponents to attack deep — which will likely turn this into an above-average pass defense once again.

Joe Haden is expected to shadow A.J. Green for much of this game, which sets up poorly for the Bengals’ superstar receiver. Last year, Green called Haden the second-toughest corner in the NFL (behind only Patrick Peterson) — and while a lot of wide receivers would disagree, it seems that Green simply does not match up well vs Haden. Throughout their career against one another (having played in the same division for almost a decade now), Green has a catch rate of 46.3% on plays in Haden’s coverage, with a 19-323-2 career line. Green is a better player than Haden, and he’ll spend some plays away from him, so take all that for whatever you feel it’s worth. Green has target counts on the year of eight, nine, eight, eight, and 10 — which is not enough work to truly support his elite price tag (he has topped 100 yards only once on the season), but his aDOT of 13.0 and his big-time talent give him a shot at posting a price-justifying score.

Tyler Boyd continues to operate as a “second alpha” for the Bengals, with an aDOT of 9.6 and a percentage share of team air yards of 28.5% — marks that put him in the same range as players like Davante Adams and Jarvis Landry (to be clear: Cincy does not run enough pass plays for his raw targets to quite match those guys; but his usage in this offense is the same as the usage those guys have in their offenses). He has target counts over the last four weeks of nine, seven, 15, and seven. The best place to attack Pittsburgh is over the middle of the field, where Boyd will see most of his action.

C.J. Uzomah saw only two targets last week, while Green (10 looks) saw his largest target count on the year in a game in which Andy Dalton threw the ball only 30 times (following three consecutive weeks of 40+ attempts). Boyd also saw his second largest target share of the season. This passing attack will center around those two guys.

BENGALS RUN OFFENSE

Last week, Joe Mixon played 78.3% of the Bengals’ offensive snaps, while handling 22 carries and three receptions. He has been active for three games so far this year, and he has 22 or more touches in every one of those games.

The Steelers have been middling against the run to begin the year, and while they have allowed the second fewest running back receptions, they have played several teams (the Chiefs, the Bucs, and the Falcons) who don’t involve their running backs much in the pass game (and their other games were vs Cleveland and Baltimore — neither of whom light the field on fire with passes to backs). This is quietly Mixon’s softest matchup on the year, after facing Indy (11th in yards allowed per carry), Baltimore (10th), and Miami (7th).

JM’S INTERPRETATION

These teams tend to play each other tough and physical, and in the seven games they have played against one another since the start of the 2015 season, they have yet to combine for more than the 53.0 points at which this Over/Under is set. They posted exactly 53 combined points once, and they scored a combined 44 or fewer points in each of the other six games. This is a better Bengals offense than those of the past, but the Steelers’ defense looks to have its legs under it again, and the Bengals’ defense has the pieces to fix their red zone issues. None of that is to say I expect this to be a low-scoring game, but I am going to be less enthusiastic about this potential shootout than I will be about the other. There are more things that could go wrong in this spot.

In planning to build three teams this week, I will almost certainly be locked onto the quarterbacks in the Tampa/Atlanta game — and if I move away from those, I’ll likely go off the board instead of eating chalk in this spot. It won’t surprise me if one of these quarterbacks posts 300 yards and three touchdowns, but that’s not the likeliest scenario in what should be a physical battle, and we are unlikely to see a true shootout (the sort of “5+ touchdowns per team” game that can break a slate wide open).

I will still have interest in individual players, however, with Tyler Boyd in particular still standing out as underpriced, and with A.J. Green, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Antonio Brown all capable of challenging the Falcons and Bucs receivers for the top scores on the slate. None of these stand out as “must plays,” but all four will be in consideration for me this week.

I also like both Conner and Mixon. This game should remain balanced enough for Conner to stay involved, while Mixon’s role should remain fairly matchup-proof as the clear third piece in the passing attack.

Finally, you can actually make an interesting tourney case for the fierce pass rush of the Steelers. Andy Dalton has been prone to interceptions this year, and an aggressive defense such as this one can turn sacks or picks into points.

BUCCANEERS // FALCONS OVERVIEW

Because we do our own research (and do our best to trust this research, rather than trusting hype, noise, or recency bias), we don’t always end up on the same plays as everyone else — but there is no way this game will go overlooked by the masses, as most people will see this as a “no research required” spot. It’s obviously great when “no research required” spots prove to require more thought than others are putting into them, but it seems unlikely that we will find that to be the case here.

The Falcons rank 30th in red zone defense this year, while the Bucs rank 32nd. Tampa ranks second in the NFL in yards per game on offense, while both teams rank bottom five in yards allowed per game. These teams rank sixth (Tampa) and ninth (Atlanta) in points per game, and they hold down the bottom two spots in the NFL in points allowed per game. Neither team plays particularly fast, nor does either team skew super pass-heavy, but they each rank top half of the league in those categories. Each defense ranks bottom six in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate. The Bucs’ offense ranks 11th in drive success rate, while the Falcons’ offense ranks fifth. Tampa ranks 30th in drive success rate allowed, and Atlanta ranks 32nd. This appears to be the matchup people thought they were getting last week in Pittsburgh — and those who approach this as a “no research required, just load up” spot appear to be in good shape early on.

BUCCANEERS PASS OFFENSE

In spite of all the injuries on defense, Atlanta ranks a respectable 14th in yards allowed per pass attempt — but as noted last week, they are getting there by playing back and forcing teams to throw short, then swarming to the ball after the catch to limit yards afterward. This has led to the Falcons allowing the third lowest aDOT in the NFL, while impressively ranking eighth in YAC allowed per reception. It’s extremely difficult to rank near the top of the league in both aDOT and YAC per reception, as teams usually have to sacrifice YAC when forcing teams to throw short. The injuries to Atlanta have not affected their ability to keep up this approach…and yet, as noted above, the Falcons have been the worst team in the NFL at preventing sustained drives. Atlanta also ranks 31st in opponent first downs per game. This happens because the Falcons are allowing the fifth highest completion percentage in the NFL. Teams are completing a ton of short passes against the Falcons (while also pounding their poor run defense), which enables them to march up the field with ease.

The interesting wrinkle here is that Tampa has gotten the job done on offense by attacking downfield more aggressively than any other team in the NFL. Ryan Fitzpatrick will carry the deepest average intended air yards in football to the bench with him, while leaving behind two guys in Mike Evans (13th) and DeSean Jackson (fourth) who rank top 15 in aDOT.

The receivers who have posted solid numbers vs Atlanta this year have been Devin Funchess (7-77-0 // nine targets), Michael Thomas (10-129-0 // 10 targets), A.J. Green (4-78-1 // eight targets), Tyler Boyd (11-100-0 // 15 targets), and Antonio Brown (6-101-2 // 13 targets).

Mike Evans is essentially a Major League version of Devin Funchess — with similar size and route trees between them — so the line by Funchess provides hope for what Evans can do in a more downfield, less over-the-middle role than Thomas and Boyd carried against Atlanta. Evans will have a difficult time connecting on the sideline shots the Bucs like to take with him, but he should produce solid efficiency and around 10 to 12 yards per catch even without any broken plays. If he gets 11 or 12 targets and adds a touchdown, he’ll be a nice piece. He has target counts on the year of seven, 12, 11, and nine.

A.J. Green and Antonio Brown saw more downfield targets against Atlanta, and while this led to poor efficiency, each was able to produce solid, touchdown-aided lines. DeSean Jackson has more nuance to his route tree than he showed the first three games (this nuance showed up in Week 4 vs the Bears), and he should get a couple of the intermediate looks that A.J./A.B. had in this matchup, while also seeing a couple looks deep. Jackson has target counts of five, four, five, and eight, making him boom/bust in this spot. He has landed on the “boom” side in three of four games already, and if Atlanta produces on offense, the Bucs will have to continue taking shots all game.

From an actual “route tree vs this defense” perspective, the guy who matches up best for the Bucs is Chris Godwin, who has similar responsibilities in this offense to what Michael Thomas and Tyler Boyd have in theirs. The difference, of course, is that Thomas is the top option on his team, while Boyd is the second option on his. Godwin continues to play almost exactly half of the Bucs’ snaps — seeing less time on the field than both Jackson and Adam Humphries. Godwin has target counts on the year of four, six, 10, and two.

Humphries has seen five to seven targets in three of four games, but he has yet to top 36 yards in a game. He has a check-for-typo aDOT of only 2.8 — 1.4 yards lower than any other player in the NFL.

One of the biggest DFS attention-getters in this spot will surely be Cameron Brate, who is on track to operate as the lead tight end this week. I’m honestly hoping O.J. Howard gets cleared to play (he looks like he has a shot), as it seems silly to not play Brate — and yet, it’s far less of a slam-dunk than it appears on the surface. Through four games, Brate and Howard have posted combined target counts of four, four, 12, and seven — and if Brate sees only four to six targets, it would not be difficult for him to disappoint. But last year, Brate was one of the top targets for Jameis Winston in the red zone — seeing 13 red zone looks, and hauling in five red zone touchdowns. Atlanta has been below-average against tight ends — and with DeSean and Evans spreading out the defense vertically (and with Atlanta sure to be focused on keeping those guys in front of them), Brate should have opportunities for check-downs. He’s a moderate-floor, solid-ceiling play if Howard misses this week. If Howard plays, neither guy can be given a high floor, but Howard’s upside will keep him in the conversation.

BUCCANEERS RUN OFFENSE

The Buccaneers’ wide receivers take on added intrigue since Peyton Barber has only two catches this year on six targets, while Ronald Jones is a noted liability in the pass game. Jacquizz Rodgers is the best pass-catching back on this team (six catches on seven targets to open the year), but Tampa is not going to play him on early downs over Barber and/or Jones. Against an Atlanta team that has been lit on fire by pass-catching running backs, this backfield will be primarily stuck to ground mode.

Atlanta has also been poor at stopping the run, ranking 29th in adjusted line yards — though the Bucs’ offensive line has not been any better, ranking 31st. Atlanta ranks 28th in yards allowed per carry. Tampa ranks dead last in rushing yards per carry.

Although Ronald Jones looked nowhere close to ready during the preseason, the Bucs may have seen enough of “featured Peyton Barber” at this point. Two weeks ago, they gave Barber eight touches and Jones 11, while Jones played 20 snaps to 31 for Barber. Barber will likely retain a role even after the bye, as Tampa prefers him for pass blocking (he pass blocked eight times a couple weeks ago), but perhaps against a weak Atlanta pass rush, they will leave Jones on the field a little more. Ultimately, a move here requires guesses on playing time and usage, while also hoping for an unpredictable spike in pass game usage or a couple carries near the goal line.

FALCONS PASS OFFENSE

I’m not going to finish writing this week’s NFL Edge until around 8 A.M. on Thursday morning (I’d like to say I’ll sleep hard after that…but realistically, I’m too excited on NFL Edge Thursdays to sleep much, as I want to wake up and read the article myself), but even with the huge chunk of time this week’s article has vacuumed up, I couldn’t help but go back and watch all of the Falcons’ offensive plays from their 34-20 home win against the Bucs last Week 12. I remember that game well — for a completely different reason than the 50% of the field that rostered Julio Jones. I was on a massive hot streak going into Week 12, and it crashed and burned when Julio (who had only one touchdown catch on the entire year to that point — because: Sarkisian) lit the slate on fire with a 12-253-2 line. I was in the DraftKings suite at Gillette Stadium for that game, and I am pretty certain I was the only person not celebrating the explosion.

The obvious question is, “How could you not roster Julio in that spot?” But a better question to me at the time was, “How could you roster Julio at 50% ownership when he has one touchdown through 10 games, and he has topped 100 yards only twice?” Naturally, Julio went 3-54-0 against Tampa a few weeks later, on only eight targets, and he finished the season with only three touchdowns all year, and only four 100-yard games. The Steve Sarkisian Factor remains in full effect, making Julio a make-or-break option on this slate, as he’ll likely be around 50% owned once again, and his production will have little to do with matchup and much to do with usage.

Much like last year (when the Bucs allowed average aDOT numbers, but allowed the second highest catch rate in the league), the 2018 version of this Bucs defense has allowed average aDOT numbers and the highest catch rate in the league. Tampa Bay’s defense ranks 28th in adjusted sack rate, which should allow Matt Ryan plenty of time to throw, and they have been attackable at all levels of the field, with the deep middle being their worst area of all. Before going on bye, the Bucs had allowed the most pass plays in the league of 20+ yards.

Quite literally, if the Falcons decided, “We are going to drop back and throw the ball to Julio 20 times, no matter what,” they would destroy the Bucs in this game. But because Steve Sarkisian is calling the plays, we are introduced to far more question marks than should be in play in this spot. I honestly get upset while digging into Falcons research and seeing Julio’s usage — especially as there is no rhyme or reason most times to when his usage will spike or drop (as evidenced by his usage changing so dramatically from one matchup vs Tampa to the next last year). This often requires us to “get inside Sarkisian’s head” to guess from one week to the next whether or not one of the best weapons of a generation will actually be featured. I’m going to wait until “JM’s Interpretation” to give you my own “inside Sarkisian’s head” take, in order to give you an opportunity to form your own take first (which I encourage you to do). Obviously, our standard approach is to provide the research with as few opinions as possible, and to then provide my opinions at the end — so you can separate the “research” from my own take on the research. But “research” in this spot is quite literally, “Julio will destroy this team if the Falcons use him, and there is no reason for them to not use him. But because they are the Falcons, they may underutilize him anyway.”

Behind Julio, Mohamed Sanu continues to function as a near every-down player (while actually running more pass routes than Julio over the last couple weeks), and he has seen his responsibilities expand over the last two weeks to include more than just low aDOT stuff — with several legitimate downfield targets coming his way across the last two games. Outside of Sanu’s two-target game vs Carolina in Week 2, he has seen target counts on the year of six, seven, nine, and seven — and again: these targets the last two weeks have been actual upside looks. There is nothing in the matchups the last two weeks that suggest Sanu should have been used any differently than he was used the first three weeks, so it’s somewhat safe to assume this new usage will stick (with that “somewhat” tied, frustratingly, to Steve Sarkisian’s unknowable brain). Six to eight targets is a reasonable expectation once again.

Calvin Ridley has seen recent target counts of five, eight, six, and five, while running only 11 fewer pass routes than Julio across the last two weeks. For all intents and purposes, he can be viewed as a near “every passing down player” in this offense, with five to eight targets his expected range from week to week. He has a healthy aDOT of 13.0, giving him upside on these looks.

Note: This is as good a time as any to pause and take a guess as to how you think Sarkisian will use Julio this week.

FALCONS RUN OFFENSE

Devonta Freeman is expected to return to the sidelines this week with a foot injury — though if this changes, you can essentially replace the name Tevin Coleman with the name Devonta Freeman, while erasing Ito Smith and replacing him with Coleman.

Tevin Coleman should operate as the lead back in this offense, with a snap rate of 65% to 70%, and with roughly two-thirds of the running back touches. Coleman’s running style matches up well with this defense, as he is most effective when running off-tackle, or between the tackle and guard. He disappointed against New Orleans (2.2 YPC) and Pittsburgh (2.1 YPC) — two teams that are weakest up the middle, and are elite to the outside — but he averaged 6.7 yards per carry against a Carolina team that ranks first in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ metrics on runs up the middle, but that ranks bottom three in runs to both the right and left tackles. Tampa is stout up the middle and average to the left, but they are near the bottom of the NFL in runs to the outside on the right. Atlanta’s run blocking has been poor, but runs outside to the right have been their relative strength, and last year in Week 12 (Freeman missed that game), Coleman went 19-97-2. Because of Sarkisian, of course, Coleman had zero receptions in that game. In spite of being one of the most dangerous pass game backs in the league, Coleman has averaged 2.4 receptions per game this year.

Ito Smith will clean up the remaining portion of this timeshare, and should see six to 10 touches. If he happens to be the back on the field when the Falcons approach the end zone, he’ll also be trusted with work, giving him a decent shot at a solid stat line.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Given how much time I spent digging into this game (I literally tripled the time budget I had set for it), I am now actually on pace to not finish writing this week’s NFL Edge until 10 A.M. (hmmm…I may have to take a nap and wrap up the article in the morning…), but I have a much clearer picture now on the Bucs’ side of the ball, while I at least feel that we can head into the weekend knowing what the guesswork is on the Falcons.

I won’t have any interest in the Bucs’ backfield, but their passing attack is very much in play. Evans will have a tough time posting a monster yardage game, but something like 70 to 100 yards is in his “likeliest scenario” range, while he could post a big day if he adds a touchdown or two.

I am leaning toward a scenario this week in which Tampa opens with their standard “vertical attack” approach, which will either lead to DeSean Jackson having early success, or will lead to Tampa stalling out early, Atlanta (hopefully) taking a lead, and the Bucs being forced to continue staying aggressive. This would lead to DeSean landing at the higher end of his target range (say seven to nine looks, instead of five or six), and would give him a chance to hit for a couple big plays. He’s an interesting tourney piece, with iffy floor but plenty of ceiling. I also like Godwin as a pivot off DeSean, as he could see heavy usage underneath if this game stays close throughout, while he adds some big play and touchdown appeal.

If Howard misses, Brate fits well as a guy who should see four to six targets, with upside for more. From a strategy standpoint, he’s the kind of guy you play in cash games rather than overthinking things, while considering a tourney fade given that he could easily prove to be bad chalk. His day will almost certainly come down to whether or not he scores a touchdown.

I like both quarterbacks, and I wouldn’t be afraid to play Jameis Winston with the bye week and plenty of practice time under his belt, though Tampa is the team that ranks dead last in the league this year in passing yards allowed per game (81 more yards per game than Atlanta has allowed), and Matt Ryan has played excellent ball this year. He’s obviously one of the top plays on the slate vs a Tampa team allowing the most fantasy points per game to the position.

Have you come up with your own Julio guesses?

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My thoughts on Julio go as follows: The Falcons are 1-4, and they desperately need this win. They are taking on the worst pass defense in football, and they have one of the best players in the league at wide receiver. Sanu and Ridley (and even Austin Hooper last week, on one of his random spiked games) have done enough to command respect, and Tampa doesn’t have the pieces to even slow down Julio without allocating lots of extra attention his direction. As such, I’m going to bet on Julio seeing double-digit looks this week and being involved early and often after taking a backseat for three full quarters in an embarrassing loss a week ago. All of this is just guesswork — but on a guy who has legitimate upside for a score this week that no one else will be able to touch, I’ll almost certainly go overweight compared to the field. The big question for my three teams in the $3k Milly Maker will likely be whether I want to go all the way overweight (100% exposure), or whether I instead want to hedge with one team, recognizing that if Julio misses, he could miss hard (he has two games already this year of five catches, 60ish yards, and no scores). My standard style of play calls for me taking a stand and going all-or-nothing, but the anti-genius of Sark presents a unique element to account for, and I may take advantage of my “three team” approach this week by putting myself in position to capitalize if Julio surprises the field by being underutilized once again.

I like Sanu and Ridley alongside Julio, but if betting on a monster Julio game, it might make sense to fade these guys. Alternately, if you fade Julio, you need to realize that you are essentially saying, “I don’t think Julio will break the slate, because I think one of these guys will have a big game instead.” You are practically forced to roster one (or both) of these guys if you fade Julio. The standard approach if building three teams here would be to build one that bets against Julio (taking Sanu and/or Ridley), building another that bets on an even distribution (taking Julio alongside one or even both of these guys), and building a third team that bets on Julio hogging all the yards — while leaving the other two alone. I’m not sure if that’s the approach I’ll take this week myself (I’m hoping to still be able to play this spot more like a single-entry player, so I’ll see if I can get any closer throughout the second half of the week to one isolated approach), but it certainly makes sense from a “hedge” / “account for Sarkisian” perspective.

In the backfield, I like Coleman as a solid piece this week, especially after his price was lowered to account for his expected backup role. This team has no idea how to use him most effectively, so he needs touchdowns in order to hit — but he’ll have a shot at some long runs and possible touchdowns in this spot.

RAMS // BRONCOS OVERVIEW

The 5-0 Rams travel to Denver this week to take on a 2-3 Broncos squad that has struggled on both offense (27th in points per game) and defense (23rd in points allowed per game), while ranking 27th in red zone touchdown rate on offense and 19th in red zone touchdown rate on defense. Vegas has given no respect to the Broncos, installing the seemingly unstoppable Rams as seven point road favorites, with the second highest Vegas-implied total on the slate.

The Rams rank 19th in pace of play, but this is because they have slowed things down in the second half with big leads in hand (they rank 29th in pace of play in the second half, compared to sixth in the first half). The Rams lean run-heavy (27th in pass play rate), but they can obviously beat opponents in a number of ways.

Denver ranks eighth in pace of play and 12th in plays per game — though it is worth noting that with the Rams posting huge leads early this year and then slowing down the pace (while ranking first in the NFL in drive success rate), they are allowing the fewest opponent plays per game. In order for Denver to rack up volume, they will need to keep this game close throughout.

Denver ranks 18th in yards allowed per drive and 24th in points allowed per drive, while the Rams rank first and third in those categories. The major issue for Denver has been big plays, as only four teams have allowed more pass plays of 20+ yards, and only one team has allowed more run plays of 20+ yards. Naturally, the Rams rank first in the league in pass plays of 20+ yards — and while they surprisingly rank near the bottom in rush plays of 20+ yards, they have Todd Gurley. The Broncos will need to fix a lot of things, quickly, in order to keep this game competitive.

RAMS PASS OFFENSE

The issues for the Broncos begin up front, where they rank a disappointing 13th in adjusted sack rate — and things won’t get any easier for them this week against a Rams team that ranks second in adjusted sack rate allowed. With all the movement the Rams use, and with the threat of Gurley on the ground — as well as the threat of screen plays, jet sweeps, bootlegs, and other misdirection plays — it’s tough for teams to get too aggressive in attacking Jared Goff. When teams do get aggressive, Goff knows exactly where his outlet is — and it is awesome to watch the way this team schemes open outlets for various types of pressure. Sean McVay thinks like a defensive coordinator in figuring out how to attack his opponents, knowing exactly what they are going to be leaving open.

I’ll write up this game assuming that each of Cooper Kupp and Brandin Cooks will clear the concussion protocol in time, and I’ll adjust in the late-week updates if things turn out differently. Right now, each guy is trending toward being on the field on Sunday.

While Tyler Lockett, John Brown, and Robby Anderson have all burned the Broncos deep, guys who have produced on volume in this matchup (Amari Cooper and Tyreek Hill in particular) have seen a heavy load of out-breaking routes. In fact, every team Denver has faced so far has focused on attacking toward the sidelines, so it will be interesting to see what McVay does in this spot, as his offense is built heavily around crossing routes.

Cooks (4.33 40 time) is the best bet for a big play downfield — as the guy on this team with the closest downfield skill set to Lockett (4.40), Brown (4.34), and Anderson (4.34) — and given his nuanced route tree and his target counts of eight, nine, eight, and eight, he carries solid floor to go with his upside. Incredibly, Cooks (with games on the year of 87 yards, 159 yards, 90 yards, and 116 yards) ranks third on this team in percentage share of team air yards, at 25.8% — behind Kupp (27.3%) and Robert Woods (35.3%).

If any team can maneuver around Chris Harris in the slot, it’s the Rams, but Kupp draws the most difficult matchup, as Harris has continued his elite play — allowing a passer rating on the year of only 55.6.

Woods is the clearest candidate for a heavy dose of out-breaking routes if the Rams adjust their approach this week. He has only two games this year under nine targets — and in one of those games (seven targets last week), he saw two carries, which he turned into 53 yards. Every time the deep safety commits to helping with Cooks, Goff can turn to Woods — giving him a high ceiling to go with his high floor.

None of these receivers have posted a true dud this year, while Kupp and Woods have each posted a true slate-winning score, and Cooks has a pair of elite scores of his own. With Kupp in the toughest draw he will face all year, it makes sense to bet on an extra one or two looks flowing toward Woods and Cooks, increasing the chance each guy has of hitting this week.

RAMS RUN OFFENSE

Denver has also taken steps back against the run, ranking 30th in yards allowed per carry and 24th in adjusted line yards. Only three teams have faced more rush attempts than the Broncos, and only one team has allowed more rushing yards. Denver has also allowed six total touchdowns to running backs — the eighth-worst mark in the league.

The Rams, of course, rank first in adjusted line yards, and Gurley has nine touchdowns on the season, with at least one score in every game. He has seen at least five targets in four of five games. He has touch counts on the year of 23 // 22 // 28 // 23 // 27. He once again carries the highest raw projection and the fewest question marks of any player on the slate.

BRONCOS PASS OFFENSE

The Rams have continued to play strong pass defense underneath in the absence of Aqib Talib, but they have been below-average downfield, ranking 26th in Football Outsiders’ metrics for pass attempts of 15+ yards.

Last week, of course, Case Keenum completed only three of eight passes that traveled at least 15 yards downfield, while he was three of seven the week before. In Week 3, he attempted only two passes all game more than 15 yards downfield (with no passes more than 20 yards), and in Week 2 he went five of 11 downfield. This has been going on all season, as Keenum was three of 10 on downfield passing in Week 1. He has three touchdowns and four picks thrown on passes of 15+ yards. If this guy could get anything going downfield through the first five weeks, we wouldn’t be the only people paying attention to Courtland Sutton.

While the safest bet on the Broncos is obviously Emmanuel Sanders (target counts of 11, four, eight, seven, and 14), it is Sutton and Demaryius Thomas who run the routes that Tyler Lockett, Thielen/Diggs, and Mike Williams have hit the Rams on the last three weeks. Sutton has target counts on the year of five, six, three, six, and six, and he has quietly run seven more pass routes on the year than his elderly counterpart. I am almost certain to have at least one piece of Sutton on my three teams this week, as I expect the Rams to jump out to a lead here and force the Broncos to take to the air; Sutton has been inches away from a couple huge games and has a shot to be much more than just a roster-filler at his dirt cheap price. Obviously, a bet on Sutton still takes on Keenum-reliance floor.

While it will go unnoticed by most, it should stand out to us that Sutton played 12 more snaps (and ran 14 more pass routes) than Demaryius last week, after trailing him slightly in snaps each of the first four weeks. With each guy running a similar route tree and now carrying similar workloads (five, seven, and six targets for Demaryius the last three weeks), Sutton is the preferred play — at a lower price, and lower ownership — but it’s not outside the realm of possibilities that Demaryius could hit for a long play once again.

BRONCOS RUN OFFENSE

Perhaps the most instructive data point in regards to “how the Rams view stopping the run” is the lack of interest they show in play-action passing. While most teams will see their linebackers step up before racing back into coverage on play-action, the Rams often remain in position through play-action motion — which obviously puts them in poor position if it is actually a run play, but it maximizes their ability to slow down the pass. The Rams’ philosophy is built around the idea that they can jump out to a lead, and that it is wasteful for opponents to lean on the run at that point — so why gear up to stop it? This is the same approach Wade Phillips used as defensive coordinator of the Broncos, which means that Denver should be able to lean on the run early in this game. (Naturally: the Rams do have the personnel to slow down the run if the Broncos take a lead.)

The difficulty in targeting this in DFS, of course, is that Royce Freeman (30 snaps last week) and Phillip Lindsay (29 snaps last week) continue to split time with one another, while also continuing to step aside on passing downs for Devontae Booker (22 snaps last week). Lindsay has seen touch counts in his non-ejection games of 17, 15, 14, and 15, while Freeman has seen touch counts in those games of 15, eight, eight, and eight. Lindsay has eight catches on the year, to four for Freeman.

If thinking “Cheat Code,” these two do have 130 to 140 combined rushing yards in three of those four games, with five total touchdowns on the year. Since the Cheat Code really only makes sense on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, here are their combined scores through the four games they have played together: 25.3 // 23.9 // 28.6 // 18.8. These numbers do not stand out to me, as I want a floor in the Cheat Code of 24 points, but I also want a ceiling of around 40 to give me a shot at averaging 20 points per game from a pair of low-priced players.  Unsurprisingly, the Rams tighten up near the goal line against running backs, as they have allowed only three touchdowns so far to the position — the eighth-lowest mark in the league.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

I have a lot of love in this spot for the Rams, especially as it may go overlooked by the masses that this team has the second-highest Vegas-implied total on the slate. While most people are crossing their fingers and hoping they get to use Josh Reynolds this week, this spot will likely go overlooked if Kupp and Cooks are active. With Chris Harris covering Kupp, both Cooks and Woods become more interesting.

Jared Goff is a solid play as well, though I’m always a bit hesitant to roster him given how many touchdowns Todd Gurley accounts for.

If you can roster him without making too many sacrifices, Gurley is fairly priced on DraftKings even at 20% of the salary cap. He is slightly underpriced on FantasyDraft at 18.9% of the salary cap, and he is laughably underpriced on FanDuel at 15.83% of the cap.

On the Broncos’ side, I don’t dislike the running backs or Emmanuel Sanders, but I likely won’t go there. The real piece that stands out to me is Sutton. I’m willing to risk at least one of my three main teams this week on a Sutton explosion, as he is functioning at this point as the number two receiver in a good matchup on a team that should be trailing, and he carries big upside if he and Keenum are finally able to connect. If this is not the week it happens, his price-considered floor has not been roster-wrecking, and he is cheap enough that the roster I use him on will still have a shot at cashing in tourneys while taking a dud. (The bigger question will be whether or not I’ll be ballsy enough to go all-in on Sutton, in the hopes that this proves to be “Courtland Sutton week.”)

SATURDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE // Full “Updates” List

The Rams are set to have fun in Denver on Sunday with their full arsenal of weapons. No “Josh Reynolds week.”

RAVENS // TITANS OVERVIEW

This game brings together two teams with similar 2018 backgrounds, with the Titans posting impressive wins against the Jaguars and Eagles in Weeks 3 and 4, but also carrying losses on the year against Miami and Buffalo, and with the Ravens notching a road win at the Steelers in Week 4 before losing to the Browns in Week 5. The Titans are tied with the Jaguars for first in their division, while Baltimore sits one game behind the Bengals in the AFC North.

Each team has been willing to “win ugly” this year, and outside of a 22-34 loss against the Bengals, Baltimore has yet to allow more than 14 points in a game this season. Tennessee has been given a low (but possibly generous) Vegas-implied total of 19.0 to open the week, with point totals under their belts so far this year of 20, 20, nine, 26, and 12. Buffalo is the only team with fewer passing touchdowns than Tennessee. The Titans have only six offensive touchdowns on the year, through five games.

Baltimore has played aggressively to open the year, ranking third in pace of play and 11th in passing play percentage. The Titans have approached each game in the exact opposite manner, ranking 28th in pace and 32nd in passing play percentage. Baltimore has run the most plays per game to open the year, though they should finish below their typical rate this week. Early in this game, the Titans should try to slow things down as much as they possibly can. Once Baltimore stops them a few times and posts some points, things should open up a bit.

RAVENS PASS OFFENSE

Last year, with Dick LeBeau keeping an extra safety in the box as often as any team in the league, the way to attack Tennessee was through the air; they were one of the most difficult teams to run on, and one of the easiest teams to pass on — and as such, they faced the sixth-fewest rush attempts in the NFL, and the most pass attempts in the league. This year with Mike Vrabel taking over as head coach and Dean Pees stepping in as defensive coordinator, the Titans have played a primarily opponent-specific defense — but for the most part, they have been comfortable putting extra emphasis on the pass, while inviting teams to run. This has led to a flip-flop from last year, with Tennessee facing the fourth-fewest pass attempts per game, but facing the fourth-most rush attempts in the league. Baltimore prefers to attack through the air, and the Titans will want to shorten this game as much as they can, so look for Tennessee to once again focus on taking away the pass, attempting to funnel the Ravens to the ground.

The Titans play sticky coverage that has led to average numbers in both aDOT and catch rate allowed, paired with the second-best YAC per reception numbers in the league. So far this year, Joe Flacco has pass attempt numbers of 34, 55, 40, 42, and 56. With game flow unlikely to tilt pass-heavy, and with Baltimore likely to run fewer plays than normal compared to their league-leading pace, we are likeliest to see him land on the lower end of that range, at around 35 to 42 attempts.

The Titans have allowed the fewest pass plays in the NFL of 20+ yards, which bodes poorly for John Brown and his league-leading aDOT of 20.1. He does have 45.9% of the Ravens’ air yards — second in the NFL to only Julio Jones — so the targets will be there, keeping his upside intact; though his chances of hitting on these deep opportunities are lower than normal. Over the last four weeks, Brown has target counts of 10, nine, seven, and 14 — though he has hauled in only 16 of those 40 targets. Similar inefficiency should be a concern here, making him boom/bust on those looks, but he does see enough downfield looks that “week-winning upside” is in his range, in the same way it only took three catches last week for guys like Robby Anderson and Tre’Quan Smith to top 100 yards and post a pair of touchdowns.

Behind Brown, Michael Crabtree (10, 10, eight, and 12 targets the last four weeks) and Willie Snead (eight, five, seven, and seven targets) continue to soak up short-area looks, running overlapping route trees on possession-type usage, with Snead mostly running out of the slot and Crabtree mostly running outside. Snead has been far more efficient on his looks, catching 19 of those 27 targets, compared to 21 of 40 for Crabtree. Crabtree is tied with John Brown and Alex Collins for the most red zone targets on the team (five).

Hayden Hurst played fewer snaps last week than both Maxx Williams and Nick Boyle. He should see an increase in snaps this week, but this remains a three-way timeshare at tight end.

RAVENS RUN OFFENSE

The Titans have been attackable in the run game, ranking 22nd in fewest yards allowed per carry, while giving up the seventh-most rushing yards per game. They do have the personnel to tighten up near the end zone, however, as they have allowed only one rushing touchdown on the year, and they have allowed the lowest red zone touchdown rate in the league — leading to Tennessee ranking third in the NFL in points allowed per game. (The Ravens rank first.)

Alex Collins has seen the bulk of the work between the 20s — but given his fumbling issues, he has started to be removed at the goal line in favor of Javorius Allen, who has five carries inside the five-yard-line (compared to three for Collins). Allen has punched in three touchdowns on those carries, and there is no reason to expect the Ravens to move away from this split anytime soon. Since Collins sees very little pass game work (2.8 targets per game), he’ll need a lot of things to go right in order to hit for ceiling.

Allen, meanwhile, has touch counts on the year of nine, 11, nine, 12, and 14 — with 4.2 receptions per game and four touchdowns on the season. He should be in line for similar usage in this spot — as the Ravens should run fewer plays this week, but should lean on the running backs more. Touchdown upside will be tough to come by — but if he hits for another score, he should post another solid game.

TITANS PASS OFFENSE

Baltimore has been one of the toughest matchups in the league this year for opposing passing attacks, with the lowest catch rate allowed in the NFL, and with the lowest yards per target allowed. Because Baltimore plays at such a fast pace and has jumped out to a few big leads, they have faced the sixth most pass attempts in the NFL to begin the year — and even with that, they have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The Titans — as a run-dominant team that likes to slow down the pace — will post fewer pass attempts vs Baltimore than most teams have.

After taking a step forward in Week 4, this pass offense once again jumped backward last week — and for the third time in their last four games, they threw fewer than 27 passes. In these lower-volume games, Corey Davis has seen target counts of seven, four, and six, and he enters one of the toughest matchups in the league this week. Behind Davis, Taywan Taylor continued to see work last week with five targets. He’s a big play threat every time he touches the ball, though his chances of hitting are lowered substantially against this stingy Baltimore D. Tajae Sharpe has yet to top four targets in a game. Jonnu Smith has yet to top three looks.

TITANS RUN OFFENSE

Only five teams have faced fewer rush attempts per game than Baltimore, though this has been dictated more by game flow than by matchup, as Baltimore is obviously not a defense that teams want to go out of their way to attack through the air. For as long as they are able to do so this week, the Titans should stick to their run-heavy approach — hoping to squeeze out the sort of ugly, 9-6 win they had over the Jaguars in Week 3.

While that’s good news from a “volume” perspective, everything after that is bad news, as Tennessee entered last week ranked 23rd in adjusted line yards, and only six teams have averaged fewer yards per carry to begin the year. Baltimore plays close to the line of scrimmage and is aggressive at the point of attack — a poor setup for an offense that likes to throw short when passing, and likes to lean on the run as often as possible.

Through five games, Derrick Henry has yet to top 60 rushing yards, and he has five total targets across these five games. He’ll need a couple long runs or a multi-touchdown game to be worth a roster spot.

Dion Lewis has touch counts on the year of 21, 15, 12, 13, and 15 — giving him a much higher touch floor than most would assume. Twenty-one of these 76 touches have come through the air, giving him a solid floor on PPR sites. Lewis also has the Titans’ only running back carry inside the five-yard-line this year — though this speaks to how low scoring opportunities have been for this team. The Titans rank 28th in red zone touchdown offense. The Ravens rank ninth in red zone scoring defense.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

I don’t imagine I’ll have any pieces of this game, and I’ll peg this game with a good 70% chance of finishing under its early-week Over/Under of 41.0. It will be extremely difficult for this game to turn into a shootout — which effectively caps the upside on all players.

If rostering players in this game, my interest would flow to the downfield upside of John Brown and the sneaky floor of guys like Javorius Allen and Dion Lewis. While we can harvest some solid floors from these running backs, however, ceiling will be a slim proposition.

Tennessee’s quick-out passing attack has also led to them taking only nine sacks through five games. I’ll likely leave the Ravens alone on DST as well, as a solid but road-traveling unit going against a Titans team that does its best to limit negative plays.

JAGUARS // COWBOYS OVERVIEW

The Jaguars got smoked last week at Kansas City, and they are coming off a pair of tough losses in their last three games, positioning them at 3-2, with a share of the lead in the AFC South. Dallas has continued to be limited by their inability to throw the ball (this should be fun…), and they sit at 2-3 in a wide-open NFC East.

As I write up this game on Tuesday night, Dallas has the second-lowest Vegas-implied total on the slate, ahead of only the Cardinals. This game has the lowest Over/Under on the main slate, and only five teams have a lower Vegas-implied total than the Jags.

Each of these teams ranks middle of the pack in pace of play, with the Cowboys leaning heavily on the run (only seven teams have run the ball more frequently), and with the Jaguars turning into a pass-heavy team with Leonard Fournette on the sidelines for most of the start of the season. This should be a good spot for the Jags to get back to a run-heavier approach after finishing dead last in the NFL last year in passing play percentage.

Jacksonville has allowed the fewest yards per game in the NFL, while Dallas has allowed the eighth-fewest yards per game. Each of these teams ranks in the bottom half of the league in drive success rate on offense, while the Jags rank first in the NFL in drive success rate on defense. This is likely to turn into a field position battle with a few big sequences down the stretch deciding this game.

JAGUARS PASS OFFENSE

This game sets up for the Jaguars’ passing attack similar to the way it set up against the Jets in Week 3 — as both the Cowboys and Jets have a strong pass rush, both teams force an aDOT more than 10% below the league average, both teams allow an above-average catch rate, and the way to beat each defense is with short crossers and yards after the catch. This sets up best for Dede Westbrook, who saw 13 targets against the Jets (and went 9-130-0) before dropping back down to five targets last week against the Chiefs’ defense that is best attacked vertically. In spite of seeing five fewer targets than Keelan Cole and 10 fewer targets than Donte Moncrief last week, Dede ran only two and eight fewer pass routes than those two, respectively. Against the Jets, Cole saw only three targets, while Moncrief saw five. Dede’s route tree on the season looks like a close cousin to the routes that Houston sent DeAndre Hopkins and Keke Coutee on last week in this matchup. Golden Tate also operated in similar areas of the field in his big game against the Cowboys to what Dede should operate in this week.

The most versatile receiver on Jacksonville has been Cole, who the Jags have been using primarily downfield, but who they occasionally shorten up. Dede is the guy to bet on in this game, but Cole has interesting upside as well, as he can add short crossers to his route tree (as he did vs NYJ), and he can also take Dallas up the right sideline, where they have been most frequently burned. Moncrief (and his 48.6% catch rate on the year) is likelier to see one of his lower target games, as Jacksonville has primarily been using him downfield. He has target counts on the year as low as three and as high as 15.

With Austin Seferian-Jenkins going down last week, Niles Paul played 35 snaps and ran 33 pass routes, surprisingly seeing more targets in his limited time (nine) than ASJ had seen in any game on the season (five was ASJ’s max). This seems fluky, given the catch-up mode Jacksonville found itself in last week. It won’t be surprising to see Paul split time with James O’Shaughnessy this week (36 snaps // 29 pass routes last week), and to fall below ASJ’s previous range of four to five targets. Obviously, this is just a guess, and perhaps Paul suddenly has a big role; but it seems unlikely this offense will be overhauled to adjust for getting a backup tight end involved.

JAGUARS RUN OFFENSE

With Corey Grant going down early in last week’s game, those who rostered T.J. Yeldon got a huge treat, as he played 77 of a possible 83 snaps, piling up 10 carries and eight catches on 10 targets. Through the first four games — in a primarily part-time role — Yeldon saw target counts of seven, five, seven, and three, and through those first four games, Jacksonville running backs as a whole averaged a massive 9.5 targets per game. This week, Yeldon takes on a Cowboys defense that has allowed the fourth-most running back receptions in the NFL.

Dallas is much more stingy on the ground, ranking fifth in fewest yards allowed per carry — but given how difficult it is to pass on Dallas, they have faced the fourth most rush attempts in the league this year. Efficiency may not be high for Yeldon — but no matter how you slice it, volume should be there. While newly-signed Jamaal Charles will mix in for a few breather touches, Yeldon will be the clear workhorse in this spot, and he should see the field for around 80% to 85% of the team’s snaps.

COWBOYS PASS OFFENSE

Dallas ranks: 28th in yards per pass attempt // 24th in completion rate // 28th in pass attempts per game // 26th in passing touchdowns // 30th in passing yards per game

Jacksonville ranks: 2nd in yards allowed per pass attempt // 5th in completion rate // 5th in opponent pass attempts per game // 1st in passing touchdowns allowed // 1st in passing yards allowed per game

Allen Hurns has yet to top 30 yards receiving.

Michael Gallup has yet to top 45 yards receiving (he did it once, and has finished with 17 or fewer yards in every other game).

Deonte Thompson has yet to top 33 receiving yards.

Cole Beasley has topped 53 yards once — back in Week 1, with a 7-73-0 line against the Panthers.

COWBOYS RUN OFFENSE

Coming into last week, the Cowboys ranked fifth in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards on offense, while the Jaguars ranked third on defense — creating a strength-on-strength matchup. If we take away the explosive 68-yard touchdown Saquon Barkley had against the Jags in Week 1, they have allowed 2.99 yards per carry to enemy running backs, which would rank best in the league.

Over the last two weeks, Ezekiel Elliott has 29 and 27 touches — and last week in a similarly tough run game matchup against Houston (3.4 yards allowed per carry — good for fourth in the league), the Cowboys adjusted by giving Zeke seven targets. This usage raises his floor in a tough spot, and he has the ability to post the sort of long “outlier” play that Saquon posted in this matchup in Week 1 — but he will need a play like that (and possibly another touchdown besides) in order to justify his price tag, as he still rests at 13.5% of the salary cap on FanDuel, 14.0% on DraftKings, and 13.3% on FantasyDraft.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

I will not be interested in either quarterback in a matchup of what has been two of the tougher pass defenses in the league, but I do have some interest in Dede Westbrook and even Keelan Cole. Westbrook may crack one of my three teams this week in the $3k Milly Maker, given his upside and his affordable price tag; if the Jags use Dede the same way they used him against the Jets a couple weeks back (and the same way other teams have attacked the Cowboys), he’ll have sneaky upside. I also like Yeldon quite a bit in this spot, as he should see seven to nine targets as long as his playing time sticks where we should expect it to stick. The matchup on the ground is tough, but 50 or 60 rushing yards and six to eight catches would provide a nice floor, while the yardage on these catches and the potential for touchdowns provides ceiling. I don’t plan to chase Zeke in this spot, as too many things could go wrong, and his path to 30+ points is narrow. I also won’t be using the Cowboys’ passing attack. I do like the Jaguars’ defense, as Dak Prescott has taken 16 sacks (tied for the eighth-most in the NFL), and the Jags’ D is always in play.

CHIEFS // PATRIOTS OVERVIEW

The scorching hot, 5-0 Chiefs will travel to New England for a marquee Sunday Night Football matchup this week, in a possible preview of this year’s AFC title game. While it’s too early for these coaches to think that way, this is a huge game for each team. Vegas has given the nod to the home team, installing the Patriots as 3.5 point favorites, and this game has already been bet up from a massive Over/Under of 58.0 to an almost unheard of 59.5 mark mid-week. Incredibly, there is still room for this number to grow before Sunday.

Each of these teams ranks top eight in situation neutral pace of play, and each team ranks bottom 10 in opponent plays allowed per game. The Chiefs rank second in drive success rate on offense, and they will have an interesting test against a Patriots defense that ranks 12th in drive success rate on defense, and that ranks seventh in points allowed per drive. The Chiefs’ defense ranks 27th in points allowed per drive, while the Pats rank seventh in the NFL in this category, even after their slow start to the year. Each team also has multiple pieces with which they can attack — which should set this up as a fun slate for Showdown players.

CHIEFS PASS OFFENSE

In one of the man-heaviest coverage schemes in the NFL, the Patriots have been essentially average in all of aDOT, catch rate, and YAC per reception allowed — playing sticky coverage, but getting burned by a pass rush that ranks 30th in adjusted sack rate. This issue is unlikely to disappear this week for New England against a Chiefs offensive line that ranks third in adjusted sack rate.

The emphasis for the Patriots will likely be on taking away the chunk plays, and you can bet they will give safety help on Tyreek Hill as often as possible — which should limit the opportunities Hill has for breaking the slate wide open. New England ranks fourth in the NFL in deep passing defense, according to Football Outsiders’ metrics, and only four teams have allowed fewer pass plays per game of 20+ yards. The Patriots have allowed only one pass play all year of 40+ yards — trailing only the Ravens and Colts in this category.

With Hill held to 90 or fewer yards in four straight weeks, Travis Kelce has beasted, posting lines across the last four games of 7-109-2 // 8-114-0 // 7-78-1 // 5-100-0. Last year when these teams met, the Patriots took Kelce out of the game to the tune of a 5-40-0 line, but Hill popped off for 7-133-1. This is obviously built around guesswork, but it was reasonable in a Week 1 game last year for the Patriots to assume a Chiefs team quarterbacked by Alex Smith could be crippled by taking away Kelce. With Mahomes under center this year, it would make sense for Hill to be the man who scares the Patriots more, and for Kelce to become the number two priority.

While it is likely that one of Hill/Kelce hits for a big game while the Patriots do everything they can to force the other into a disappointing game, neither outcome will change the role Sammy Watkins has as the number three man in this passing attack. Watkins has quietly seen target counts in his non-injured games of five, seven, eight, and eight, making him a legitimate floor/ceiling threat in this spot. Watkins is running primarily possession-type routes, with an uncharacteristic aDOT of only 7.5, but he is still mixing in a few downfield routes, and he may see a few extra looks this week against a Patriots team that always tries to isolate at least one top weapon that they can scheme out of the game.

Behind these guys, Chris Conley has seen 11 total targets in the four games in which Kelce / Hill / Watkins were healthy, but these limited looks have included three red zone targets and two red zone touchdowns, as Conley can become valuable on a short field with opponents focused on the four superstar weapons on this team. He carries a non-zero floor and a respectable shot at a strong game — making him an interesting piece to consider if multi-entering the Showdown slate.

CHIEFS RUN OFFENSE

The Patriots’ run defense ranks 23rd in adjusted line yards and 21st in yards allowed per carry — though as was the case last season, when the Patriots allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns in the league to running backs, this team tightens up against the run near the goal line, having allowed only one running back rushing touchdown all year.

On the flip side of this, Kareem Hunt has been a featured piece for this offense near the goal line, as he has six carries inside the five — trailing only Todd Gurley and Carlos Hyde for the league lead. Hunt has turned these short-area looks into four touchdowns.

In all, Kansas City ranks third in red zone touchdown offense, while the Patriots rank a middling 14th in red zone touchdown defense. The points should pile up one way or another for Kansas City, and while Hunt is the less likely means of scoring, he’ll still have his chances. Hunt is averaging only one reception per game, but he has carry counts on the year of 16, 18, 18, 19, and 22.

PATRIOTS PASS OFFENSE

The Chiefs have started to pick things up in the pass rush department, moving up to 11th in adjusted sack rate, but the Patriots rank first in adjusted sack rate on offense, and Justin Houston is going to miss this game — limiting the impact this pass rush has the ability to have.

The Chiefs have allowed the second most passing yards per game on the year, but this has been due more to volume than to poor play, as they rank middle of the pack in yards allowed per pass attempt, and they are allowing a below-average catch rate. They have faced the most pass attempts in the NFL. View this as a slightly above-average matchup for Tom Brady — which creates more than enough opportunity for him to post one of the top quarterback scores on the weekend.

If we wait until the run breakdown to take a look at James White, Brady has not yet produced a single game of double-digit targets for the guys we will look at here. Chris Hogan has yet to top five targets in a game; Phillip Dorsett has three games this year of seven targets, but he has lost snaps directly to Josh Gordon the last couple weeks. Gordon has snap counts so far with the Patriots of only 18 and 18, and while that number will probably climb a bit higher this week, it seems unlikely that the Patriots are ready to make him a full-time player. All of these guys can be bet on in large-field Showdown contests for the upside that all players carry in this game, but none of them would stand out if this game were on the main slate.

Julian Edelman returned to the field last week for his first game since the Super Bowl in February 2017, and he immediately stepped into nine targets — the most any Patriots wide receiver has seen on the year. Unsurprisingly, this led to only 57 yards on his seven receptions, but he carries solid floor, and he can occasionally top 100 yards and/or score a touchdown, giving him moderate upside to pair with this floor.

Rob Gronkowski is the guy on this team who has the clearest upside, though he has disappointed to date with target counts of eight, four, five, seven, and seven. When these teams met last year, the Chiefs held Gronk to a 2-33-0 line on six targets, but they have gotten absolutely wrecked by tight ends this year, allowing the third most catches and the most yards to the position. From a pure “projection” standpoint, Gronk has the highest floor and ceiling among Patriots pass catchers, but this is the sort of game in which it makes sense to roll with a multi-entry approach in the Showdown. (I cannot imagine trying to build an “optimal team” with so many players in this game who “could go off,” and so few who can be locked in for truly guaranteed points.)

PATRIOTS RUN OFFENSE

The biggest threat to the Patriots’ passing attack is their two-man backfield that has dominated opponents the last couple weeks, which currently has the Patriots ranking 20th in pass play rate. The Patriots should look to establish the run early and often in this one against a Chiefs team that ranks dead last in adjusted line yards, and that incredibly ranks dead last in the NFL in yards allowed per carry, in spite of allowing a long run on the year of only 26 yards. This team is just getting consistently pushed around up front, and in a game against Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon, and company, it is not as if KC can simply dedicate extra men to stopping the run. Sony Michel has looked great the last couple weeks, with 125 and 98 rushing yards on the ground. His floor is a bit scary, with only three receptions through four games — making him a near-total “yardage and touchdown” play. But there is no reason to expect the yardage to dry up this week, and he should have a few chances for scores.

The passing work, of course, goes to James White, who surprisingly saw 14 targets last week even with Edelman returning. White now has target counts on the year of nine, eight, three, 10, and 14, and he has mixed in four to eight carries in all but one game as well. With only two running backs in the rotation for New England, White’s touches are locked in at this point, and he sees plenty of time on the field in the red zone, as New England likes his versatility down there. White has posted a genuine roster-worthy stat line in all five games this year, and he has done this alongside roster-worthy stat lines from Michel the last two weeks.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Outside of Patrick Mahomes, no one in this game would be a clear “add” to the top of my list on the main slate, as there are just so many different ways each team can score, and there are so many paths to high-priced duds if usage flows the wrong way. In terms of “pure upside,” however — just plain taking floor out of consideration — Hill, Kelce, and Gronk all have the ability to post the highest score of the weekend in this spot, while White and Michel are not far behind them. Julian Edelman is a safe play with upside, while Hunt and Watkins are “decent plays” with upside. Chris Conley, Chris Hogan, Phillip Dorsett, Josh Gordon, and even Cordarrelle Patterson should all be considered as “mix and match, hunt for upside” pieces in a multi-entry strategy on the Showdown. Tom Brady is behind Mahomes, as the Patriots can soak up touchdowns on the ground more easily than the Chiefs can — but it obviously won’t be a surprise if Tommy posts the top score on this slate. Both kickers are obviously in play. Realistically, you are likely to see some sharp players mix and match a small amount of exposure to these defenses on the Showdown as well. Obviously, the likeliest scenario is that each of these defenses get trucked, but if one of them lucks into a multi-touchdown game, they’ll become a difference making play at near-invisible ownership. A Patterson/Patriots DST stack has probably a one in 100 shot at hitting, but if Patterson gets a receiving touchdown and a return touchdown, and the Patriots’ DST adds a defensive touchdown to that return touchdown, you’ll collect all the points at zero ownership. If I were multi-entering, I would try this on at least one or two rosters.

49ERS // PACKERS OVERVIEW

A struggling, 1-4 San Francisco squad will travel to Lambeau Field on Monday night for a primetime game that will be massively overshadowed by the game taking place the night before. The Packers are a disappointing 2-2-1 to start the year, but they have the pieces to get back on track. Vegas backs this sentiment, with Green Bay installed as 9.5 point favorites early in the week.

These teams rank next to each other in pace of play at 11th and 12th in the league, and each team ranks top 10 in the league in plays per game on offense. The Packers rank third in pass play rate, while the 49ers rank 18th.

The way to attack the Packers is on the ground (27th in DVOA; 20th in yards allowed per carry), as this team has been playing back and focusing on the pass — but it will be difficult for San Francisco to stick to this approach throughout the game, as they are likely to fall behind, and they are also expected to be without their lead runner in Matt Breida. This is a poor setup for the 49ers’ offense.

49ERS PASS OFFENSE

Green Bay has been great at rushing the passer this year, ranking third in adjusted sack rate, while the 49ers rank 27th in this category on offense. The Packers also rank seventh best in completion percentage allowed and top 12 in yards allowed per pass attempt. While there is a handy excuse here of “The Packers really haven’t played many elite quarterbacks,” we should keep in mind that they are taking on C.J. Beathard this week.

Last week, Beathard unloaded a massive 54 pass attempts — which led to 349 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but also led to four turnovers and four sacks taken. Twelve of these targets went to Pierre Garcon, though Garcon failed to top 60 yards for the fifth consecutive game to open the year. Kendrick Bourne turned seven targets into a 4-33-0 line. The 49ers are so banged up, they gave 57 snaps and 35 pass routes to Victor Bolden Jr. (1-10-0 on four looks) and 24 snaps to Richie James Jr. (1-7-0 on one target). Trent Taylor soaked up a fluky eight targets — which he turned into a 7-61-1 line. Taylor has an aDOT of only 5.8. Dante Pettis is going to miss another game this week, and Marquise Goodwin looks iffy midway through the week. If Goodwin plays, he should be in line for four to seven targets — with a floor of zero, but with decent upside if things click.

The only piece actually worth talking about on the 49ers’ aerial attack is George Kittle, who has impressed this season with target counts on the year of nine, four, seven, eight, and seven, and with yardage totals in those games of 90, 22, 79, 125, and 83. I will do everyone a favor for now and continue not playing Kittle myself (this week, simply because I don’t typically play the Showdown slates), which seems to be the key to his success, as his 2-22-0 line came the only week I rostered him. To those who have continued making money off this guy in my absence: you’re welcome. Green Bay has been middling against tight ends this year, allowing the 12th most receptions and the 10th most yards to the position.

49ERS RUN OFFENSE

San Francisco appears likely to be without Breida this week, which will leave them splitting work among Alfred Morris, Raheem Mostert, and Kyle Juszczyk. If betting on one of these guys…my first question would be, “Why are you playing this Showdown slate?” But after asking that, I would point out that Alf appears in line for a larger-than-normal workload, though his 21 touches last week stand alongside the important caveat that the 49ers ran a near-impossible 99 plays against the helpless Cardinals. If we dial them down to around 65 plays this week, Alf should be in line for 14 to 16 touches again, with Mostert mixing in for a light load on the ground and Juszczyk mixing in for a few looks through the air. Green Bay invites opponents to run the ball, but the 49ers will have to keep this game close for that to matter.

PACKERS PASS OFFENSE

Randall Cobb is expected to miss another game this week, which will leave Marquez Valdes-Scantling in the slot, though the target share for MVS will likely depend on whether or not Geronimo Allison gets cleared. MVS has filled in for Cobb twice so far — posting a 1-38-0 line on three targets with Allison on the field, and going 7-68-1 on 10 targets with Allison off the field. If Allison plays, he’ll likely jump back into eight to 10 looks, while MVS will trickle back down to five or six mostly possession-type targets.

Matchup does not matter for Davante Adams, as Aaron Rodgers has essentially decided that this guy is going to get the ball no matter what. Adams saw 12 targets against Xavier Rhodes and the Vikings, 14 targets against Tre’Davious White and the Bills, and 12 targets against Darius Slay and the Lions. While Adams has topped 100 yards only once this year, he has catch totals of five, eight, seven, eight, and nine, with four total touchdowns on the year. Richard Sherman has quietly played like a top 10 corner on his side of the field when healthy this season, but Adams will avoid him on over 70% of his pass routes. He is the safest play on the slate — alongside Rodgers himself.

Jimmy Graham will also remain involved, with around six to eight targets his likeliest range. (He spiked to 11 targets last week, but Rodgers threw the ball 52 times — an unlikely number in a game the Packers are likely to control.) He has yardage counts on the year of 8 // 95 // 45 // 21 // 76, with one touchdown added.

PACKERS RUN OFFENSE

Musical chairs continued in this backfield last week for the Packers, with Jamaal Williams playing 33 snaps, Ty Montgomery playing 29, and Aaron Jones playing 22 — as expected. This team has shown no inclination to scrap this timeshare, as each guy in this backfield supposedly offers something that the other two cannot. Until the Packers actually begin to shift usage, you are left picking up low volume and hoping for something to hit in this spot if attacking on the Showdown slate. Aaron Jones has by far the best pure upside in this group, but if he is going to hit, he’ll almost certainly have to do so on limited touches, after touching the ball seven, 12, and nine times to begin the year.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Even if I made a habit of playing the Showdown slates, I would almost certainly stay away from this game, as the 49ers’ offense is a mess outside of Kittle, and the Packers’ backfield is a mess — essentially leaving us with Kittle, the Packers’ defense, and the Packers’ passing attack as the only truly quality pieces. The Packers’ D and Kittle are each good enough plays to be considered on the full-weekend slate (the Packers are probably my favorite DST play of the weekend, actually), while Davante Adams would stand out in the Packers’ passing attack as a strong play among the high-priced guys, behind only the receivers in the games with true shootout potential.

The other pieces in the Packers’ passing attack would be worth considering in large-field tourneys on the full weekend slate, and they obviously rise to the top on the Showdown. Everyone else in this game is a “mix and match in the Showdown and hope something goes right” option.

This is an ugly way to end what was otherwise a really fun set of Week 6 games.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE // Full “Updates” List

Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison are game-time decisions for Monday Night Football. Davante Adams gets his targets no matter what. Marquez Valdes-Scantling becomes the number three option (behind Adams and Jimmy Graham) if both guys miss. If one of them plays, MVS will still be on the field, but he’ll be in line for fewer guaranteed looks. (If both Cobb and Allison play, it will be business as usual for this squad.)