Game Overview ::

• The Rams like to lean on the run, and this game sets up well for them to do so
• Washington has been better on defense than they’ve appeared on the surface, with turnovers and short drives on offense giving opponents far too many chances
• The Rams have controlled games thoroughly enough that they’re actually notching/allowing among the fewest drives per game in the league
• The Rams are highly likely to be playing from in front, but this game might track down a notch or two from some other Washington games
• There’s nothing unexpected on the Rams in DFS, and there’s nothing unexpected on Washington

How Los Angeles Will Try To Win ::

After the nearly-twice-as-long-as-normal writeup for Panthers // Falcons, we flow into two games that are far more straightforward (or…so I think, as I begin diving into research; though I’ll note that I did have a deleted paragraph at the top of the Panthers // Falcons game that had talked about how straightforward that one appeared…so I guess we’ll see what the research has to say).

L.A. has been emphatic this year in their desire to win games on the ground. On early downs with the game within seven points, they are running the ball 54% of the time — good for the eighth most in the league…but in all situations, they are running the ball 51% of the time — good for third most in the league. In fact (and this probably tells the story best of all), when trailing by two scores or more, the Rams have run the ball on 50% of early-down plays. Cleveland has run the ball on 51% of early-down plays. No other team with more than 10 plays “trailing by two or more scores” has run the ball more. As the Rams play in the unbelievably difficult NFC West, they aren’t guaranteed to make the playoffs, but they are very clearly a playoff-caliber team, while the Washington Football Team will be competing for a top five draft pick this season. All signs point to the Rams playing from in front in expected game flow here, and all signs point to them leaning on the run in order to control this game.

How Washington Will Try To Win ::

Washington will try to win this game with prayer and good fortune.

L.A. ranks seventh in DVOA against the pass, and they have held Dallas (17), Philly (19), and the Giants (9) to under 20 points. Dak had his only game under 450 yards against the Rams, with 266 yards. Wentz has struggled all year, but he threw zero touchdowns and two picks vs the Rams. And Daniel Jones looked worse against the Rams than he looked against the Steelers and Bears, and he looked as bad as he looked vs the 49ers. This week, Washington projects to be chasing points, and they are turning their team over to Kyle Allen.

Expect Washington to take some shots downfield — knowing that they’ll need points in order to win — but against an L.A. team forcing the seventh shallowest opponent aDOT and allowing the eighth fewest pass plays of 20+ yards, Washington’s best bet for a win will be playing keepaway for as much of this game as they can against the 28th-ranked run defense (DVOA) of the Rams.

Likeliest Game Flow ::

Similar to the Bucs last season, the Washington defense has looked worse than it is. Only 10 teams are allowing more points per game than Washington, but this defense quietly ranks fifth in drive success rate, second in yards allowed per drive, and second in plays allowed per drive. They rank eighth in third down defense (unfortunately for them, the Rams rank fourth in third down offense), and they even rank 17th in red zone touchdown defense. Only Philly and Dallas have more giveaways than Washington, and only two teams have been worse at sustaining drives than Washington. As noted previously in the NFL Edge: Washington is tied for the most opponent drives allowed per game.

With the Rams’ ground-leaning approach and slower pace of play (re: pace of play — the Rams average roughly 28.5 seconds between plays regardless of whether they’re in a neutral situation or not; this has them showing as the “eighth fastest” team in situation-neutral pace — but because they’re playing at roughly this pace all the time, they rank 23rd in overall pace), the Rams have had the ball for the second fewest drives per game and faced the fourth fewest opponent drives per game. Boil it all down, and what has made Washington look so bad is not production-per-drive, but is instead the huge boost in total drives they’re facing. The Rams, meanwhile, intentionally create fewer drives in a game (and if Washington turns the ball over, they’ll just keep controlling this game and giving Washington less time with the ball). There’s no reason a powerful offense like the Rams can’t score four or five times in a spot like this — but the Over/Under of 45.0 is toward the higher end of what should be expected here. The Rams should be playing from in front and controlling this game, and this should lead to fewer drives all the way around than we’ve been seeing in Washington games so far (Washington games are averaging 12 drives per team, per game; the Rams are averaging 9.5).

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

• In case you haven’t heard, the Colts are trying to win games on the ground right now
• In case you haven’t heard, the Browns are also trying to win games on the ground right now
• The Browns have been scoring points, while the Colts have been holding down opponents
• There are some key angles to keep in mind when considering pieces from this game

How Indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

Cleveland’s defense ranks 10th in DVOA against the run and 20th against the pass, but this may matter less than game flow for the Colts, as they have called on Philip Rivers to throw the ball only 25 // 21 // 29 times in the games in which they weren’t chasing points. Indy ranks 30th in pace of play, second in time of possession, 27th in pass play rate, 21st in pass play rate with the score within seven points, and 22nd in pass play rate on early downs with the score within seven points. Indy’s offensive line has underperformed to begin the year, ranking 28th in adjusted line yards, but they nevertheless seem set on sticking to the ground game as their foundation until forced to go a different way.

How Cleveland Will Try To Win ::

This all creates an interesting dynamic, as Cleveland ranks 32nd in pass play rate, 21st in pace of play, and 14th in time of possession (if you add the Browns’ TOP and the Colts’ TOP, you get 64:21 — which means there are four fewer minutes available in this game than these teams have averaged to begin the year; someone is likely losing plays in this spot). Philosophically, Kevin Stefanski has made it very clear that his offense is built off the ground game, and Cleveland will stick with this even when they fall behind. Baker Mayfield has pass attempt totals of 39 // 23 // 23 // 30. In the game with 39 attempts, the Browns lost 6-38. In the game with 30 attempts, the Browns actually threw the ball at a lower rate than their season-long rate; but because they were playing the Cowboys, they ran 73 plays. Indy has allowed the fewest opponent plays per game, at 53.2. With Indy’s defense as difficult to attack on the ground (fifth in DVOA) as they are through the air (second) — and especially with All-World linebacker Darius Leonard banged up (Leonard hasn’t been practicing this week) — the Browns will be looking to lean run-heavy for as long as this one remains close.

Likeliest Game Flow ::

Of course: just because these teams are leaning run-heavy doesn’t mean they can’t score points. Cleveland is coming off three consecutive games against teams with run defense DVOAs in the 18 to 23 range (playing nicely in their favor), but it is still noteworthy that they have scored 34+ in all three of those games. And while Indy has been a little less explosive (point totals of 20 // 28 // 36 // 19), their games of 28 and 36 came against the Vikings and Jets — two teams that rank in the same range as Cleveland in DVOA.

The biggest impediment to this game taking off will likely be Mayfield. Mayfield has only two interceptions on the year, compared to seven touchdowns, but the Colts lead the league in picks so far with seven; and while this Stefanski offense has eliminated a lot of Baker’s decision-making errors by simplifying reads and progressions, Baker’s occasional “WTF?” accuracy issues are still a thing. If the Colts’ excellent run defense can make life “just difficult enough” on Cleveland’s running backs and Baker struggles “just enough” through the air for drives to stall out or turnovers to be created, it’s hard to see Indy getting proactively aggressive (Indy is wanting to “take a lead, and protect a lead” on offense this year — like a poker player waiting for premium hands).

If this Cleveland offense continues humming, however, they could drive this game forward — forcing Indy to open things up. Most paths don’t lead to this game becoming an actual shootout; but with Indy coming off game totals of only 30 // 43 // 39, the arrival of the Cleveland offense could lead to a few more points showing up on the scoreboard.

Tributaries ::

DFS+ Interpretation ::