Week 5 Matchups

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00:00 :: Eagles // Steelers
09:49 :: Cardinals // Jets
20:34 :: Raiders // Chiefs
28:26 :: Jaguars // Texans
39:36 :: Bengals // Ravens
48:47 :: Panthers // Falcons
63:20 :: Rams // WFT
72:10 :: Dolphins // 49ers
82:29 :: Giants // Cowboys
92:47 :: Colts // Browns

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Kickoff Thursday, Oct 8th 8:20pm Eastern

Bucs (
23.75) at

Bears (
20.25)

Over/Under 44.0

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Notes

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::

Week 5 begins with the Bucs visiting the Bears in a game with a 44.5 total and Tampa Bay favored by 5.5. This should be a relatively slow-paced, defensive slog. We now have relevant DVOA information for the season, and the Bucs are the 2nd best defense by DVOA with the Bears the 7th best. 

We’ll start with the home team. With Tarik Cohen gone for the season, David Montgomery was the undisputed bell cow of the backfield, playing 85% of the snaps. He has a nightmarish matchup on the ground . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 11th 1:00pm Eastern

Rams (
25.75) at

WFT (
18.75)

Over/Under 44.5

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Notes

Game Overview ::

  • The Rams like to lean on the run, and this game sets up well for them to do so
  • Washington has been better on defense than they’ve appeared on the surface, with turnovers and short drives on offense giving opponents far too many chances
  • The Rams have controlled games thoroughly enough that they’re actually notching/allowing among the fewest drives per game in the league
  • The Rams are highly likely to be playing from in front, but this game might track down a notch or two from some other Washington games
  • There’s nothing unexpected on the Rams in DFS, and there’s nothing unexpected on Washington

How Los Angeles Will Try To Win ::

After the nearly-twice-as-long-as-normal writeup for Panthers // Falcons, we flow into two games that are far more straightforward (or…so I think, as I begin diving into research; though I’ll note that I did have a deleted paragraph at the top of the Panthers // Falcons game that had talked about how straightforward that one appeared…so I guess we’ll see what the research has to say).

L.A. has been emphatic this year in their desire to win games on the ground. On early downs with the game within seven points, they are running the ball 54% of the time — good for the eighth most in the league…but in all situations, they are running the ball 51% of the time — good for third most in the league. In fact (and this probably tells the story best of all), when trailing by two scores or more, the Rams have run the ball on 50% of early-down plays. Cleveland has run the ball on 51% of early-down plays. No other team with more than 10 plays “trailing by two or more scores” has run the ball more. As the Rams play in the unbelievably difficult NFC West, they aren’t guaranteed to make the playoffs, but they are very clearly a playoff-caliber team, while the Washington Football Team will be competing for a top five draft pick this season. All signs point to the Rams playing from in front in expected game flow here, and all signs point to them leaning on the run in order to control this game.

How Washington Will Try To Win ::

Washington will try to win this game with prayer and good fortune.

L.A. ranks seventh in DVOA against the pass, and they have held Dallas (17), Philly (19), and the Giants (9) to under 20 points. Dak had his only game under 450 yards against the Rams, with 266 yards. Wentz has struggled all year, but he threw zero touchdowns and two picks vs the Rams. And Daniel Jones looked worse against the Rams than he looked against the Steelers and Bears, and he looked as bad as he looked vs the 49ers. This week, Washington projects to be chasing points, and they are turning their team over to Kyle Allen.

Expect Washington to take some shots downfield — knowing that they’ll need points in order to win — but against an L.A. team forcing the seventh shallowest opponent aDOT and allowing the eighth fewest pass plays of 20+ yards, Washington’s best bet for a win will be playing keepaway for as much of this game as they can against the 28th-ranked run defense (DVOA) of the Rams.

Likeliest Game Flow ::

Similar to the Bucs last season, the Washington defense has looked worse than it is. Only 10 teams are allowing more points per game than Washington, but this defense quietly ranks fifth in drive success rate, second in yards allowed per drive, and second in plays allowed per drive. They rank eighth in third down defense (unfortunately for them, the Rams rank fourth in third down offense), and they even rank 17th in red zone touchdown defense. Only Philly and Dallas have more giveaways than Washington, and only two teams have been worse at sustaining drives than Washington. As noted previously in the NFL Edge: Washington is tied for the most opponent drives allowed per game.

With the Rams’ ground-leaning approach and slower pace of play (re: pace of play — the Rams average roughly 28.5 seconds between plays regardless of whether they’re in a neutral situation or not; this has them showing as the “eighth fastest” team in situation-neutral pace — but because they’re playing at roughly this pace all the time, they rank 23rd in overall pace), the Rams have had the ball for the second fewest drives per game and faced the fourth fewest opponent drives per game. Boil it all down, and what has made Washington look so bad is not production-per-drive, but is instead the huge boost in total drives they’re facing. The Rams, meanwhile, intentionally create fewer drives in a game (and if Washington turns the ball over, they’ll just keep controlling this game and giving Washington less time with the ball). There’s no reason a powerful offense like the Rams can’t score four or five times in a spot like this — but the Over/Under of 45.0 is toward the higher end of what should be expected here. The Rams should be playing from in front and controlling this game, and this should lead to fewer drives all the way around than we’ve been seeing in Washington games so far (Washington games are averaging 12 drives per team, per game; the Rams are averaging 9.5).

DFS+ Interpretation ::

  • WAS currently ranks 3rd in pass eff def after facing Wentz, Murray, Mayfield, Lamar
  • The LAR have faced defenses ranked 25th, 16th, 17th, 24th in pass eff def
  • WAS is tied-3rd with 5 INT
  • Goff has thrown 20 INT in his last 22 games
  • Goff in two close wins: totaled 475 yds, TD, INT // In blowout win: 267 yds, 3 TD // ultra-comeback mode: 321 yds 2 TD, INT, rush TD
  • Goff has been between 27-32 pass att in each game
  • Lamar & Murray added 30 DK pts on the ground, so WAS’s passing DK pts allowed read: 15.8 (Wentz) // 14.44 (Murray) // 14.24 (Baker) // 14.72 (Lamar)
  • WAS has allowed the fewest DK pts to WRs through four weeks, with Hopkins (20.8) being the only to reach 20 DK pts
  • WAS has allowed a multitude of WRs to connect once or twice deep, but the deep passing game has mostly disappeared from this offense without Cooks, with Goff tying Brees for the lowest average intended air yds in 2020
  • Van Jefferson caught two balls over 20+ air yds in first two weeks but has since barely seen the field
  • Woods has two solid games (119 & 104 total yds + 1 TD) and two mostly duds (33 & 37 totals yds + 1 TD)
  • Woods has now seen the same or less targets than Kupp in each of the last three games, but he is also getting 2 rush att/g and has 6 RZ touches to Kupp’s 3
  • With Higbee running just 56.6% routes, Kupp has gone back to his higher usage role (23 targets in past 3 games) and has total yardages of 100, 107, 71 to go with 2 TDs
  • Higbee does get a nice matchup considering WAS has been hit by TEs for the 6th most DK pts thanks to 5 TDs allowed to the position
  • This crowded backfield, that looked to be led by Henderson after Weeks 2-3 before Brown out-touched & out-produced him in Week 4, is expected to return Week 1 projected starter Cam Akers
  • WAS ranks 18th in rush eff def and only Chubb has posted a good score (27 DK pts)
  • In 13 games with Ramsey, the LAR defense has only allowed 3 QBs to top 20 DK pts (Dalton, Lamar, Allen)
  • The Rams have 16 forced TOs in those 13 games
  • In 14 career games, Kyle Allen has thrown 16 int and lost 7 fumbles
  • With Kyle Allen, DJ Moore surpassed 20 DK pts 4 times in 12 games (20.1, 24, 34.4, 23.3) while averaging 5.8 rec (9.1) for 84.1 yds, 0.3 TD
  • McLaurin is currently averaging 6.5 rec (9.8) for 96.8 yds, 0.3 TD
  • LAR have allowed 9 WRs to surpass 40 rec yds, but just 3 above 64 yds: Cooper (81), Davis (81), Beasley (100)
  • #1 WRs vs LAR have scored: 18.1 (Cooper) // 12.4 (DJax) // 14.9 (Diggs) // 7.8 (Slayton)
  • LAR have allowed an average of 20.5 att 99.3 rush yds and 5.3 rec 51.5 rec yds to RBs
  • All three high-usage backs (Elliott, Sanders, Singletary) would have scored over 20 DK pts if not for Singletary getting stuffed at the goal-line multiple times
  • Antonio Gibson touches: (9 att, 2 tg), (13 att, 2 tg), (9 att, 3 tg), (13 att, 5 tg)
  • Gibson has scored a TD in three straight games with a team-high 8 RZ touches during that span
  • McCaffrey averaged 8.3 targets a game with Kyle Allen

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 11th 1:00pm Eastern

Eagles (
18.25) at

Steelers (
25.75)

Over/Under 44.0

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Notes

Game Overview ::

Most signs point to this being a relatively pass-leaning game for the Pittsburgh offenseThe way to try to beat Pittsburgh's defense is through big plays, rather than through long, consistent drives; too bad the Eagles don't have any true downfield weapons leftThis game should be a dog fight, in which the Steelers project to be playing from in frontMost spots in this game are easy to avoid in DFS, with a couple notable exceptions

How Pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

Pittsburgh had an early bye week foisted upon them due to the Titans’ Covid outbreak . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 11th 1:00pm Eastern

Cards (
27.75) at

Jets (
20.75)

Over/Under 48.5

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Notes

Game Overview ::

The Jets will try to win by running the ball and focusing their passing attack on the short areas of the field (while randomly, and counterintuitively, playing relatively fast); "Hurry up and run!"The Cardinals will play fast and throw short, hoping to put together complete drives against this attackable Jets defenseThere will be more plays available for these teams than their season-long averagesNothing pops in this game, but three or four pieces are very clearly viable

How New York Will Try To Win ::

If we look purely at season-long pass play rate, the Jets might . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 11th 1:00pm Eastern

Raiders (
21.75) at

Chiefs (
32.75)

Over/Under 54.5

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Notes

Game Overview ::

The Chiefs (in case you haven't heard) tend to score a lot of points; and they have tended to score a lot of points against the RaidersThe Raiders are set up well in this game...as long as they can keep the game close enough for their preferred style of playThe Chiefs are highly likely to score, so the big question is whether or not Las Vegas keeps this score "close enough"There are almost always some plays to consider in Chiefs games; this game is no different

How Kansas City Will Try To Win ::

In four . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 11th 1:00pm Eastern

Jaguars (
24.25) at

Texans (
30.25)

Over/Under 54.5

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Notes

Game Overview ::

The Jags have been strong on offense this year, and the matchup sets up wellBill O'Brien is gone, but he has certainly left his mark on this teamAll signs point to points piling up in this game......and yet, I may find myself looking elsewhere this week on my tighter builds

How Jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

Houston’s defense ranks 27th in overall DVOA, while Jacksonville’s defense ranks 32nd.

Houston hasn’t been much better on offense — ranking 20th — but Jacksonville has been really strong when they’ve had the ball, ranking sixth in DVOA . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 11th 1:00pm Eastern

Bengals (
18.25) at

Ravens (
30.75)

Over/Under 49.0

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Notes

Game Overview ::

Baltimore likes to run; we know that. And the Bengals have been solid against the pass this year, but have continued to be attackable on the ground (21st in DVOA // 26th in adjusted line yards)Cincy has been trying to win through the air at one of the highest rates in the league, and Baltimore naturally faces one of the league's highest opponent pass play ratesObviously, Baltimore should control this game (there's a reason they are 13-point favorites)......but there is an interesting tributary to play around with here in tourneysAs is almost always the . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 11th 1:00pm Eastern

Panthers (
25.75) at

Falcons (
27.75)

Over/Under 53.5

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Notes

Game Overview ::

This is one of the most straightforward games of the season, right?(The length of this writeup would tend to disagree...)The Panthers have a quality matchup and a narrow distribution of touchesThe Falcons have a quality matchup in a macro senseThere are going to be points scored in this game (though a true blowup game is less likely than it appears on the surface)There are going to be pieces to like quite a bit in this game (though there may be fewer pieces to "like quite a bit" than the public is likely to assume)

How . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 11th 4:05pm Eastern

Dolphins (
21.25) at

49ers (
29.25)

Over/Under 50.5

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Notes

Game Overview ::

The 49ers are expected to be healthy this week; and they should be expected to play downhill against this weak Miami defenseThis is a mismatch, in terms of what the Dolphins are good at // bad atThe 49ers should control this game......though "how" they do so is interesting to exploreThis is not a major game in terms of DFS upside available; but there are some interesting large-field angles, and there is one spot in this game that could make a push onto tighter builds

How San Francisco Will Try To Win ::

San Francisco has not created any . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 11th 4:25pm Eastern

Giants (
22.25) at

Cowboys (
29.75)

Over/Under 52.0

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Notes

Game Overview ::

The Cowboys have been playing fast; the Cowboys have been passing (and it hasn't just been about the game flow)The Giants have also been passing; and with no Saquon Barkley, why wouldn't they?If "bad Daniel Jones" shows up, this entire game could disappoint; which makes the DFS+ Interpretation segment a good place to examine what might cause "bad Daniel Jones" to emerge, and what might instead lead to this being one of the more valuable DFS games on the slate

How Dallas Will Try To Win ::

Not only do the Cowboys rank first in . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 11th 4:25pm Eastern

Colts (
24.25) at

Browns (
25.25)

Over/Under 49.5

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Notes

Game Overview ::

  • In case you haven’t heard, the Colts are trying to win games on the ground right now
  • In case you haven’t heard, the Browns are also trying to win games on the ground right now
  • The Browns have been scoring points, while the Colts have been holding down opponents
  • There are some key angles to keep in mind when considering pieces from this game

How Indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

Cleveland’s defense ranks 10th in DVOA against the run and 20th against the pass, but this may matter less than game flow for the Colts, as they have called on Philip Rivers to throw the ball only 25 // 21 // 29 times in the games in which they weren’t chasing points. Indy ranks 30th in pace of play, second in time of possession, 27th in pass play rate, 21st in pass play rate with the score within seven points, and 22nd in pass play rate on early downs with the score within seven points. Indy’s offensive line has underperformed to begin the year, ranking 28th in adjusted line yards, but they nevertheless seem set on sticking to the ground game as their foundation until forced to go a different way.

How Cleveland Will Try To Win ::

This all creates an interesting dynamic, as Cleveland ranks 32nd in pass play rate, 21st in pace of play, and 14th in time of possession (if you add the Browns’ TOP and the Colts’ TOP, you get 64:21 — which means there are four fewer minutes available in this game than these teams have averaged to begin the year; someone is likely losing plays in this spot). Philosophically, Kevin Stefanski has made it very clear that his offense is built off the ground game, and Cleveland will stick with this even when they fall behind. Baker Mayfield has pass attempt totals of 39 // 23 // 23 // 30. In the game with 39 attempts, the Browns lost 6-38. In the game with 30 attempts, the Browns actually threw the ball at a lower rate than their season-long rate; but because they were playing the Cowboys, they ran 73 plays. Indy has allowed the fewest opponent plays per game, at 53.2. With Indy’s defense as difficult to attack on the ground (fifth in DVOA) as they are through the air (second) — and especially with All-World linebacker Darius Leonard banged up (Leonard hasn’t been practicing this week) — the Browns will be looking to lean run-heavy for as long as this one remains close.

Likeliest Game Flow ::

Of course: just because these teams are leaning run-heavy doesn’t mean they can’t score points. Cleveland is coming off three consecutive games against teams with run defense DVOAs in the 18 to 23 range (playing nicely in their favor), but it is still noteworthy that they have scored 34+ in all three of those games. And while Indy has been a little less explosive (point totals of 20 // 28 // 36 // 19), their games of 28 and 36 came against the Vikings and Jets — two teams that rank in the same range as Cleveland in DVOA.

The biggest impediment to this game taking off will likely be Mayfield. Mayfield has only two interceptions on the year, compared to seven touchdowns, but the Colts lead the league in picks so far with seven; and while this Stefanski offense has eliminated a lot of Baker’s decision-making errors by simplifying reads and progressions, Baker’s occasional “WTF?” accuracy issues are still a thing. If the Colts’ excellent run defense can make life “just difficult enough” on Cleveland’s running backs and Baker struggles “just enough” through the air for drives to stall out or turnovers to be created, it’s hard to see Indy getting proactively aggressive (Indy is wanting to “take a lead, and protect a lead” on offense this year — like a poker player waiting for premium hands).

If this Cleveland offense continues humming, however, they could drive this game forward — forcing Indy to open things up. Most paths don’t lead to this game becoming an actual shootout; but with Indy coming off game totals of only 30 // 43 // 39, the arrival of the Cleveland offense could lead to a few more points showing up on the scoreboard.

Tributaries ::

DFS+ Interpretation ::

  • After allowing Minshew to go 19/20 for 173 yds, 3 TD in Week 1, IND has held Cousins, Darnold, & Foles to a combined 530 yds, 2 TD, 7 INT
  • IND is allowing the fewest QB DK pts/g at 11.2
  • In this run-heavy offense, Mayfield’s best score so far is just 16.3 DK pts
  • IND held the MIN WRs in check, but some success has been found by the JAC trio, Berrios, and Robinson
  • After a slow start to the season and on the lowest target volume of his career (7.5 tg/g), Odell finally exploded vs a DAL secondary that has given up the 2nd-most most WR DK pts in the NFL
  • IND has given up the 7th fewest WR DK pts (2nd fewest WR rec yds)
  • Even in Odell’s huge game, he only caught 5 passes and still needed a clinching 50 yd TD run to really hurt non-Odell fantasy rosters
  • Chubb’s absence opens the door for Hunt, the NFL’s leader in Rush Yds Over Expectation
  • Chubb received 10, 22, 19 att as the lead back, while Hunt still managed 13, 10, 16 att of his own in those games
  • Johnson & Hilliard combined for 18 att in Week 4, but Hunt also came in expected to be limited due to injury
  • Total yds for lead RBs vs IND: 90, 71, 62, 57
  • CLE’s banged up secondary has allowed an average of 329.3 yds, 3 TD, INT to Lamar, Burrow, Haskins, Dak
  • Rivers yardage totals in 2020: 363, 214, 217, 190; (4 pass TDs on the season)
  • Pascal has out-targeted Hilton 16 to 13 in the last three games
  • In 34 career road games outside, Hilton has just 7 games above 20 DK pts
  • Campbell’s 71 yds in Week 1 & Cox’s 111 yds in Week 2 are the only games over 60 yds by any Colts pass catcher this season
  • CLE has allowed the 3rd most WR DK pts/g
  • CLE has allowed the 5th most TE DK pts/g
  • In Burton’s first game, he received 5 targets to just 3 combined for Doyle & Cox, and all three finished with under 20 yds
  • The most rushing yds by any RB vs CLE so far was 54 from Elliott
  • Taylor has received 26, 13, 17 carries as lead back, with Wilkins & Hines totaling 27 & 16 in those games themselves

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 11th 8:20pm Eastern

Vikings (
23.75) at

Hawks (
30.25)

Over/Under 54.0

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XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::

Sunday night football should be an exciting game as the Vikings visit the Seahawks. This game opened at 49.5 but has been bet all the way up to 57 (no, that isn’t a typo) with the margin also narrowing, as the Seahawks were initially favored by 9, but are down to 7. For the mathematically inclined, that means Vegas is giving the Seahawks an implied total of 32 points and the Vikings 25; if this game gets there, that’s a lot of fireworks.

On the Seattle side, lead back Chris Carson still only . . .

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Kickoff Monday, Oct 12th 5:00pm Eastern

Broncos (
18.5) at

Patriots (
25.5)

Over/Under 44.0

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Notes

Game Overview // How New England & Denver Will Try To Win // Likeliest Game Flow // Tributaries by Hilow(!!!!) || Showdown Thoughts from Xandamere coming Sunday night!

Further Update ::

Due to Covid-19, this game is no longer on the Week 5 slate.

GAME OVERVIEW ::

Likely notable inactives: Cam Newton, Stephon Gilmore, Sony Michel, Drew Lock, Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant, KJ HamlerStidham is a pure pocket passer, with plus timing and football IQ and minus arm strength; look for ball-out-quick passing on short routes and increased 21-personnel usage (25% season average, second in the NFL) from the PatriotsWith a handful . . .

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Kickoff Monday, Oct 12th 8:15pm Eastern

Chargers (
21.25) at

Saints (
28.25)

Over/Under 49.5

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Notes

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::

The “regular” Week 5 wraps up with the Chargers visiting the Saints for a 50 total game with New Orleans favored by a touchdown (I say “regular” because it looks like we’re going to get a bonus Showdown on Tuesday with the Bills and Titans). The big news here is Michael Thomas is missing this game for disciplinary reasons, meaning we get Alvin Kamara week once again. 

On the Saints side, Kamara is a lock for 18-20 touches as a floor with significant receiving work. Without Michael Thomas, he’s the strongest play . . .

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Kickoff Tuesday, Oct 13th 7:00pm Eastern

Bills (
27.5) at

Titans (
24.5)

Over/Under 52.0

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Notes

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::

Week 5 wraps up with a rescheduled game as the Bills visit the Covid-ridden Titans. The game total is 53 with the Bills favored by 3.5, which is fairly aggressive for the Titans considering how many guys they’ll be missing. 

On the Bills side, their run game gets a boost with Zack Moss expected to return, though that takes away Devin Singletary’s lucrative bell-cow role. They should resume a similar split to what they had before Moss got hurt, which is roughly 60/40 in Singletary’s favor (and he . . .

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