WEEK 4 ROSTER BREAKDOWN
Point Total: 200.68
Reminder: I always write my initial diagnosis of my roster right before games kick off, in order to capture my honest thoughts on the build. Here are those thoughts.
Second reminder: this is my DraftKings roster, as that’s where the majority of my play goes; but the breakdown of thought process is beneficial for all sites and styles of play.
28.78 – Andy Dalton
25.60 – Giovani Bernard
44.10 – Alvin Kamara
24.00 – Tyler Boyd
14.00 – Geronimo Allison
13.40 – Jarvis Landry
11.10 – Jimmy Graham
25.70 – Sterling Shepard
14.00 – Bears
Results :: This team was good for cashing in all tourneys of $333 or lower. Somehow, it fell shy in most double-ups. It also fell just shy in the $4,444 tourney, leading to a net loss, in spite of the solid results.
What I Wrote Before Kickoff:
I’m typing this week’s roster breakdown immediately after making some final changes to my roster — moving up from Mike Williams to Geronimo Allison, and moving up from Eric Ebron to Jimmy Graham. Typing that almost feels like I’m typing a death sentence…but with Randall Cobb out for the Packers — and with Buffalo most attackable over the middle — there are a lot of targets to go around. There is a chance that Marquez Valdes-Scantling soaks up most of Cobb’s looks, and I heavily played around with the idea of using MVS // Michael Thomas over Allison // Landry. I decided to lock in guaranteed points, however, in order to keep intact what I feel is a pretty bulletproof lineup. Much like the Steelers/Mahomes slate, I’m giving this roster an 80% shot at a profitable weekend, which is as high as you can reasonably go. I’ll feel good about this week regardless of how Sunday plays out.
All along this week, I was locked onto Gio, Kamara, and Shepard. No surprises there; there was a 0% chance my roster would be without this core.
I started the week wanting to pair Shepard and OBJ together and I was making sacrifices in other spots to get there; but as I continued to toy around with roster construction, I realized I needed to be flexible at this high-priced pass catcher spot. I liked Michael Thomas, OBJ, Mike Evans, Jarvis Landry, and Rob Gronkowski in this range, giving me plenty of flexibility to work things around in other spots and see where I landed up here.
Dalton was a natural fit on this roster, as the most underpriced, high-floor, high-upside option on the slate. I messed around with some Rivers and Brees teams, but it just made so much sense to use the savings on Dalton, as that extra money was more valuable in other spots.
I had Boyd slightly behind Mike Williams throughout the week, but it’s very close, and with Dalton on the roster, Boyd makes the cut.
Coming into Sunday morning, of course, Williams had a spot as well — but the absence of Randall Cobb led me to pivot up to Allison.
Heading into Sunday, it was Evans // Mike Williams // Ebron // Seahawks. This became Landry // Allison // Jimmy Graham // Bears.
As always, this roster is unsurprising for anyone who hung out on the site last week, with six Tier 1 guys, plus Allison, Graham, and the Bears. Allison essentially became Tier 1 for me with the Cobb news, as he replaced another Tier 1 guy in Williams. The only Tier 1 tight ends for me were Gronk and Ertz, but the Cobb absence gave Graham a slight bump for me over Ebron and Eifert, allowing me to essentially max out the amount of expected floor and ceiling I could fit on a single roster by taking a slight perceived downgrade from the Seahawks to the Bears.
In all, this has been my sharpest week of the season, and I feel tremendous about my process — with a sharp picture of the slate, and with no stones unturned. If I fall short of profit, it will likely be due to some of the late moves, but I’m okay with that. I took on a little more guesswork for a little more upside, which is always a fine trade to make.
There are a number of exciting, high-scoring games on the weekend that are going to draw a ton of DFS attention. On weeks like these, there are a couple key things we typically see:
1) The winning rosters on weekends such as these tend to have monster scores. To put that another way: when you build your rosters this week, make sure you keep upside in mind, as this is not the sort of week in which a moderate score is likely to take down any big payouts.
2) The chalky rosters on weekends such as these tend to land on a few huge outings, while also landing on a few duds. This gives us a path to the top of the leaderboards, as “all we have to do” is land on the chalky players who hit, while avoiding the chalky players who miss. Simple…right?
If you think in terms of “what the field is doing,” and try to outmaneuver them by picking and choosing which chalky players you should avoid, you are going to have a more difficult time pulling off the sort of roster you will need to pull off this week. As always: The best way to make sure you “land on the chalky players who hit” while “avoiding the chalky players who miss” is by thinking for yourself. If you are able to this week, hold off on even looking at ownership projections until deeper into the weekend, when you have already done all of your research, and have narrowed things down to the players you like the most (with a good idea of what your roster will look like). When you are able to do this, you will usually find — by the time you look at ownership projections — that you are landing on a few chalky players and a few non-chalky players without even trying.
One final note as we head into the weekend:
Remember: the goal in DFS is not to win every weekend! That should never be the goal…because it is impossible to do — and trying to do so will lead to a too-safe approach that prevents you from ever hitting for a truly big payout. Instead, the goal is to think for yourself, to take what you feel are some of the best plays on the weekend, and to understand that it only takes one weekend to make your entire year.
Every weekend has a chance to be that “one huge weekend.”
Put in the time this week — leaving nothing on the table, and putting yourself in the best possible position for a season-making slate: trusting the research, thinking for yourself, rostering great plays from top to bottom, and knowing that this is going to lead to profit over time.
With that, let’s get started!
Packers // Lions Injury Updates (Oct. 6)
Leonard Fournette Set To Miss (Oct. 6)
Joe Mixon May Not Be A Workhorse (Oct. 6)