COLTS // PATRIOTS OVERVIEW

The Patriots enter this game with an ultra-aggressive team total of 30.75, on a short week, with a potentially hobbled Rob Gronkowski. But while this total leaps off the page at first glance, we would realistically have called anything shy of this a “low total,” making this a sharp line — and a fair expectation for this game.

There are a lot of things the Patriots will be able to do against the Colts’ upstart defense, and the big question on the other side of the ball will be whether or not the Colts are able to keep pace without their best offensive player in T.Y. Hilton. The Colts are dealing with a slew of injuries in other areas on their roster, making this a spot in which A) we can expect the Pats to exploit some of these weaknesses, and B) we can expect the Colts to turn to a pass-heavy game plan in order to keep pace.

COLTS PASS OFFENSE

A pass-heavy game plan will be nothing new for the Colts, as they currently rank second in the NFL in passing play percentage, at 71%. To put that number further into perspective: Miami led the NFL in passing play percentage in 2017, at 63.8%. With a poor offensive line and no run game to speak of, Indy is relying on short, quick passes in lieu of a run game — though last week, for the first time this season, Indy started getting their deep ball going as well.

The starting point for this offense is Andrew Luck, who still does not look right, in spite of some glossy stat lines. In Week 4, his short-area ball placement was concerning, with plenty of passes falling short of receivers or going behind receivers — which serves as a reminder that Luck has missed a ton of football, and is still settling back into his rhythm. We should be able to expect him to continue improving each week, but this week will be a difficult task with no T.Y. Hilton, who currently accounts for almost 30% of the Colts’ air yards this season.

In addition to Luck’s woes as a passer, he dealt with a number of soft drops from his receivers — with Eric Ebron and Zach Pascal especially standing out in this area. This will be a difficult spot for Indy from an efficiency standpoint.

With all of that out of the way, volume should be a big plus for this offense. We cannot expect them to run 91 plays every week, of course; but coming into last week, they did rank eighth in the NFL in plays per drive, and the pass-heavy nature of this attack should still lead to around 45 pass attempts this week — a lofty projection, but likely not far off from what the reality will prove to be. The Patriots quietly rank fifth in the NFL in fewest yards allowed per pass attempt, and it’s not as if the Colts can really test them downfield without Hilton; but Luck is good enough to sustain drives and rack up PPR and half-PPR points for his pass catchers.

Without Hilton, the work on this passing attack should be spread fairly evenly among Eric Ebron (Week 4: 83.5% snap rate; 10 targets), Ryan Grant (79.1% snap rate; seven targets), Chester Rogers (80.2% snap rate; 11 targets), Nyheim Hines (68.1% snap rate; 11 targets), and Zach Pascal (49.5% snap rate; 10 targets).

As those numbers show: the ball gets spread around fairly evenly in this offense, and that should remain the case with Hilton out of action.

Ebron is being used almost exclusively as a receiver, with 50 snaps in the slot last week (and another six out wide), compared to only 20 inline. He has 21.1% of the team’s air yards to date and should remain a reliable volume piece.

Grant is used as a possession receiver and will likely need a touchdown or two in order to go for ceiling, against a Patriots team that tackles well, but the targets should be there for respectable floor.

Rogers saw his route tree expand last week, seeing a pair of targets more than 20 yards downfield, after working almost exclusively within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage through the first three weeks (he did still have nine targets within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage last week, including a couple behind the line of scrimmage). This actually gives him some decent floor/ceiling, as the short-area targets should be locked in for PPR and half-PPR points, while the downfield looks will provide opportunities for spiked production.

Pascal came closest to taking over the Hilton role last week during the time Hilton missed, and the touchdown pass he caught was on a play designed to go to him — speaking to the faith this coaching staff has in his abilities. As a route-runner and player, he looked solid.

Hines is a true force as a mismatch weapon, with the way the Colts are using him out of the backfield and out wide as a multi-purpose back. He has exactly four or five carries every game, to go with target counts of nine, one, five, and 11. With Hilton out and the Colts likely to fall behind in this one by the second half, Hines should be in line for around eight looks once again.

With so many guys involved, volume is obviously a concern if things in this game turn poorly, and we will need the Colts to sustain drives in order for all these guys to perform; but with the Patriots likely to take a lead and the Colts missing Hilton, at least four of those guys could top nine FanDuel points and 12 DraftKings points, and at least a couple of them should spike for really nice scores.

Jordan Wilkins continues to operate as an ineffective two-down thumper, and his ability to read blocks still needs serious work (he set up Pascal’s touchdown this last week when he turned upfield too quickly and failed to bounce his run outside for what should have been an easy score). As we saw on Monday night with Royce Freeman: a guy like this can post a nice game with a score…but he’ll need a score.

(Note: Marlon Mack will not play in this game. Give the biggest boost to Hines, with locked-in work in the pass-catching role.)

The big wrinkle in this spot — which makes all of these guys scarier than they otherwise would be — is the return of Marlon Mack. Mack could soak up as many as 20 to 40 snaps of his own, with six to eight runs and maybe even six to eight targets. This could lower the target expectations on all the guys above. The Colts will want to get the ball into Mack’s hands; but the same can be said of Hines, at this point, so I don’t expect him to be as directly impacted by Mack’s return as their position designations would imply. Mack should take targets away from the rest of the team in a “group effort” manner. If Luck throws 45 times, a fair expectation for targets would look something like this:

Eight :: Ebron
Seven :: Rogers
Seven :: Pascal
Seven :: Hines
Six :: Grant
Five :: Mack

With the remaining five targets spread across random players from there (Marcus Johnson soaked up three targets last week, and will likely see another two or three here).

Those are median projections, and could swing either way, but that’s a safe expectation heading in.

PATRIOTS PASS OFFENSE

Sure enough, the Colts’ upstart zone defense was shown to be exploitable downfield last week against DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Deshaun Watson, and the dangerous aerial attack of the Texans — and a big key last week was Watson’s ability to move around and avoid pressure while his receivers found open space. While Tom Brady does not have Watson’s mobility, he is able to manipulate the pocket as well as any quarterback in football, and his offensive line entered last week ranked seventh in adjusted sack rate, compared to 28th for Houston. This should allow the Patriots’ receivers to find open space throughout the game.

The key to the Pats’ passing attack will be the short areas of the field, where Julian Edelman will return to immediately regain his underneath role that should lead to around eight to 11 targets week in and week out. Across his last 39 games (2014 through 2016), Edelman has only four 100-yard games; and while he had an outlier seven-touchdown season in 2015 (in only nine games played), he totaled only four touchdowns in 2014 and three touchdowns in 2016. Monster upside is rarely Edelman’s calling card, but he should be a reliable producer right out of the gate, and he is entering the year underpriced compared to expectations.

With Edelman back, Phillip Dorsett is the guy likeliest to take a playing time hit, in spite of posting 16 catches on 26 targets so far, to eight catches on 15 targets for Chris Hogan. Hogan has continued to operate ahead of Dorsett, playing 70 snaps to Dorsett’s 57. The Patriots like Hogan’s versatility — though it’s tough to predict a breakout game here. Hogan would be well off the radar on the full-weekend slate, but he’s going to have a few big, out-of-nowhere outings this season, and he does have the skill set to find open areas on the Colts’ back end.

Josh Gordon only played 18 snaps last week, and it seems unlikely the Patriots expand his role too much on a short week. Gordon will likely see his playing time spike in Week 6, with the Patriots receiving this mini-bye that will give them more time to work him in. Once Gordon becomes more involved, he is ultimately going to eat into the playing time of Dwayne Allen (45 snaps last week), with the Patriots running fewer two tight end sets.

Rob Gronkowski did not practice on Monday or Tuesday and is listed as questionable for this game — though there is little concern over his availability at the moment. If Gronk does miss, this will theoretically create a path to more playing time for Gordon, but the likeliest scenario will be a “group effort” to replace him, with Dorsett, Hogan, Edelman, and James White taking on the largest share of the pass game pie. If Gronk plays, there is no reason to be concerned about his ceiling — though defenses continue to focus on him with no major downfield threat to worry about, lowering his usage and production floors below where we typically expect to find them.

Indy is dealing with major injuries on defense, with starting safety Clayton Geathers, starting corner Nate Hairston, and stud rookie linebacker Darius Leonard all questionable. The Colts have other injuries behind these guys, which the Patriots will likely take advantage of by going up-tempo in order to tire out this skeleton unit.

PATRIOTS RUN OFFENSE

Indy presents a non-threatening run matchup — especially as this team is so comfortable playing with five defensive backs, and will likely be back-on-their-heels this week due to injuries.

In Week 5, the Pats gave 40 snaps (and 29 pass routes) to James White, while giving 33 snaps (and three pass routes) to Sony Michel. White will likely see a dip in pass game work with Edelman back, after seeing eight to 10 targets in three of four games so far; but given how little the Patriots trust Michel in the pass game at the moment, White will still be on the field enough to produce.

Michel looked a lot better last week, with the Patriots getting him outside the tackles a number of times and allowing his quickness to create problems for the Dolphins’ defense. Michel will be a yardage-and-touchdown- back for the time being, with very little pass game involvement; but there is opportunity this week for yardage to pile up again, and for touchdown chances to be there.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

From a pure “fantasy points scored” perspective, the Colts are best targeted on the Showdown slate, with the return of Marlon Mack throwing some of our certainty out of the window; but from a price-considered standpoint, Ebron, Pascal, and Rogers could all be used on the main slate, while Hines carries big price-considered upside to go with his Mack-introduced uncertainty. Andrew Luck should be able to pile up a good 30 or so completions, with somewhere around 300 yards and a couple touchdowns — creating plenty of room for floor across the main pieces on the Colts, with a couple of these guys likely spiking for a strong game.

On the Patriots, we know that someone will likely post a big game — but as always with this team, it’s a guessing game as to who that will be. Edelman comes in underpriced and should make an impact right away, though “monster games” are rarely in his range. He’s a strong piece, but it is likely that someone on this team outscores him. The best candidates, in order, are Gronk // Michel // White // Hogan // Dorsett // Gordon. It really won’t be “surprising” if any of those guys pop off for a big game, but I wouldn’t reach beyond the first four until large-field stuff. Cordarrelle Patterson will also remain involved, with iffy volume and big-play upside.

If you want to collect all of the points on one of these offenses, either quarterback is a solid play. The Patriots are the better defensive unit on the Showdown slate.

FALCONS // STEELERS OVERVIEW

The Steelers have been a shootout machine this year, with only six teams allowing more points per game, and with only nine teams scoring more points per game. The Falcons are one of the six teams allowing more points per game, and they are one of the offenses scoring more points per game. The Steelers have been middle of the pack on a per-drive basis, but Atlanta ranks top five in yards, points, and efficiency per drive, while their defense ranks bottom five in all three categories. Pittsburgh’s defense has matched their offense, showing league-average results on a per-drive basis.

Upside is elevated for each side with the Steelers playing at the sixth-fastest pace in the league, and with the Falcons ranking 10th. Pittsburgh ranks third in passing play percentage, while Atlanta ranks 12th, and each team is comfortable attacking downfield, with Matt Ryan actually ranking sixth in the league in average intended air yards.

This spot will not sneak by anyone, but with pricing elevated across the board on these offenses, we’ll dig in and get a feel for where the production in this game is likeliest to flow.

FALCONS PASS OFFENSE

Matt Ryan has returned to the form that made him the NFL MVP a couple years ago, ranking near the top of the league in every important quarterback category. The key has been a unit that has attacked defenses downfield with Julio Jones, while using him to draw attention away from Mohamed Sanu and Calvin Ridley underneath.

In spite of his strict “no touchdown” rule, Julio has been one of the top players in the NFL to date — leading the league in both receiving yards and percentage share of team air yards, while ranking an impressive eighth in the league in average depth of target. The big question for Julio this week will be how the Steelers elect to play this matchup. After their man-zone concepts with a single-high safety have gotten blown up through the early part of the season, Keith Butler and Mike Tomlin shook things up in the second half last week by going with more two-deep safety looks. The problem with the Steelers’ typical look is that they have been getting no pass rush, which is allowing receivers to get open deep — a perfect setup for Julio. If the Steelers continue with their two-deep look in order to force short passes, Julio’s upside will take a bit of a hit. Either way, the Steelers are going to continue struggling until they can figure out a way to get pressure on the quarterback (and if they start blitzing more this week — even using the unique blitzes Butler has in his back pocket — Matt Ryan has the ability to react accordingly and burn the blitz). Julio has been used at all levels of the field this year, with two to four deep shots per game and the rest of his targets coming at all levels within 20 yards of the line of scrimmage. He has target counts on the year of 19, nine, six, and 12, and he should be in line for heavy targets once again. Who knows — maybe he can even get a touchdown. (It would be nice if he were not tied with Sanu for third on the team in red zone targets…behind Ridley and Austin Hooper.)

Mohamed Sanu broke out last week for his first 100-yard game since 2014. Obviously, this cannot be considered the norm, and he should return to the underneath role that yielded yardage totals of 18, 19, and 36 yards the first three weeks of the year. Same as last week, you can at least make a case for targeting a cheap receiver in a likely shootout. Sanu is going to score around four or five touchdowns this year, so he brings upside to the table in that department as well.

This passing attack has especially transformed with the addition of Calvin Ridley, who is showing tremendous feel for the field and excellent chops as a route runner. Ridley continued to play limited snaps (54.3% of the team’s snaps last week), though he did run only six fewer pass routes than Sanu and seven fewer than Julio. He has recent target counts of only five, eight, and six, and is now priced up for his recent production; but he should be in the six-to-eight target range once again in this spot, and he has obvious upside on these looks. Mathematically, the likeliest outcome is a zero touchdown game after an unsustainable run of six touchdowns the last three weeks — but in the small sample size of a single week, there is no reason Ridley cannot hit again.

The emergence of Ridley has rendered Austin Hooper an afterthought. Hooper has topped 24 yards only once this year, and he saw two targets last week in a great tight end matchup. His red zone usage is going to lead to a few spiked games, but they will be impossible to predict.

FALCONS RUN OFFENSE

Pittsburgh has allowed middling production against the run, ranking 17th in DVOA and 19th in yards allowed per carry. Of greater concern than the matchup is the return of Devonta Freeman, who should shift this backfield back to its 65/35 split. Most games, this backfield should yield around 16 touches to Freeman and around 11 to Tevin Coleman — with only three or four receptions divided between the two. This split may tilt toward Coleman a bit more this week, given that this is Freeman’s first game back, but with each guy priced close to clear starters on all three sites, it will be difficult to get excited. If taking a tourney shot, each guy carries upside — with Freeman’s chances of hitting higher, but with question marks on his workload in his first game back.

STEELERS PASS OFFENSE

The Steelers have continued to abandon the run early and often — and while you could theorize that this is because they continue to fall behind early, there are two counterpoints worth considering: 1) they have been pass-dominant lately from the start of games, and 2) even if they would happily turn back to the run if given a chance, this is likely to be another spot in which pass-heavy makes the most sense. Through four games, Ben Roethlisberger has thrown the ball 41, 60, 38, and 47 times.

While Atlanta has played good pass defense on the back end — with Robert Alford and Desmond Trufant holding their own as best they can — this defense is suffering over the middle from the losses of starters Keanu Neal, Deion Jones, and Ricardo Allen, and they are failing to get any significant pass rush, ranking 27th so far in adjusted sack rate. With the Falcons now losing the pass rushing presence of Grady Jarrett, they are in even more trouble than before. Dan Quinn already plays a fairly straightforward scheme that relies on speed to keep the ball in front and swarm to the ball after the catch, and it is unlikely he gets too creative with his pass rush looks in this spot, as doing so would open up this defense to even more breakdowns on the back end. This defense relies on a hybrid Cover 3 and man coverage look most of the time — which not only sets up well for Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster, but also makes it easy for Randy Fichtner to scheme an effective attack. A.B. and JuJu will join Julio Jones and probably Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs as the most appealing wide receiver plays on the slate.

A.B. has target counts on the year of 16, 17, nine, and 11 — and if the Steelers are content to load up on short-area targets, he should be able to eat in this spot. Only four teams have faced a lower aDOT than the Falcons on the year, but they have been perfectly average at stopping receivers after the catch, and only three teams have allowed a higher catch rate.

After seeing only eight targets in Week 1, JuJu has seen target counts of 19, 11, and 11 — matching or out-targeting A.B. in every one of those games. A.B. has an aDOT of 10.4 and has vacuumed up 37.4% of the Steelers’ air yards, while JuJu has an aDOT of 8.0 and has seen 26.4% of the team’s air yards. As noted last week: each of these guys sees his route tree change a bit from week to week, depending on how the Steelers want to attack a particular defense; the closest comp for “the way to attack Atlanta” right now is the Bucs — another team that forces a short aDOT and tackles fine after the catch, but that does everything else poorly. JuJu caught six passes within three yards of the line of scrimmage against Tampa a couple weeks ago and finished with a line of 9-116-0.

Behind A.B. and JuJu, James Washington has seen target counts of five, two, and four since taking over the “Martavis Bryant role” in Week 2. He has continued to play heavy snaps, and is obviously a candidate for a splash play — but his floor remains low outside of that.

Vance McDonald ran 32 of a possible 50 pass routes last week (compared to only 13 for Jesse James). The Steelers like to run their routes at levels — allowing Roethlisberger to read downfield first, and to check to a lower level in the same line of sight if nothing is open downfield. Oftentimes, McDonald is that underneath read, which could lead to a couple extra looks against a Falcons team that defends well downfield. McDonald has target counts the last two weeks of five and five, and another five to seven looks is not out of the question in what should be a pass-heavy attack.

STEELERS RUN OFFENSE

As we hypothesized in this space last week: the Steelers abandoned the run early and used James Conner as an afterthought in the passing attack — giving him only nine carries and three receptions. The receptions did come on seven targets, so there was upside for a lot more aerial production than he turned in; but since his 36-touch game in Week 1, he now has touch counts of 13, 20, and 12, and his price has not been adjusted down on any of the three major sites to account for his change in role. Conner does have a respectable two targets inside the 10 and three carries inside the five; but he’ll need a touchdown-heavy game or a spike in volume in order to justify his salary. View him as a low-floor, high-ceiling guy this week — against a defense that can be attacked on the ground…but in a game that will likely lead to the Steelers leaning on the pass once again, either by necessity or design.

Quietly helping to fill the Le’Veon Bell role is wide receiver Ryan Switzer — who I am listing here because of the way the Steelers are using him, often lining him up in the backfield before motioning him into the slot, or lining him up in the slot to run the short-area routes that Bell ran in the past. Switzer played 20 snaps last week (up from seven the week before), and he hauled in seven catches for 32 yards on seven looks. He’s a thin play, of course; but with thin value this week, there is a chance Switzer could hit pay dirt and fill out a tourney roster nicely while making room for an extra high-priced guy up top.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

There are no real secrets in this game. Both quarterbacks jump to the top of the pile, while Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, and JuJu Smith-Schuster join a small pool of “high-floor, week-winning-upside” plays.

Behind these primary pass catchers, Vance McDonald and Calvin Ridley offer a moderate floor and a high ceiling, while guys like James Washington, Mohamed Sanu, Austin Hooper, and Ryan Switzer are part of the “could be worth it in tourneys” discussion.

I’m not high on either backfield, but James Conner obviously has the potential to spike suddenly if the heavy work returns in this spot. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are both iffy-volume plays, but either guy could post a couple long runs or a two-touchdown game.

RAVENS // BROWNS OVERVIEW

The biggest surprise on the Browns has been their defense, as they rank fourth in total DVOA, and 13th in takeaways. Only six teams have more sacks than the Browns.

Of course, the “surprise” has nothing to do with personnel, and has everything to do with the fact that Gregg Williams is the man scheming this defense. Personally, I’m ignoring those DVOA numbers, as Cleveland is a strong “splash defense” with Williams’ aggressive, “get after the quarterback and take away the ball” style of play — but in terms of actually preventing the offense from moving the ball and scoring points, they have been below average. This is good news for a Baltimore offense that has started the year hot, ranking 10th in yards per game and fifth in points per game.

On the other side, Baltimore’s elite pass defense will return their best player this week in Jimmy Smith. Through four weeks without Smith, Baltimore ranked second in yards allowed per game and third in points allowed per game. This will be a tough test for rookie Baker Mayfield and the upstart Cleveland offense.

RAVENS PASS OFFENSE

Baltimore has had a resurgence through the air this year — with Joe Flacco looking like the quarterback who helped Baltimore win a Super Bowl during the 2012 season, leading the Ravens so far to top-12 marks in DVOA, passing yards per game, and passing touchdowns. Flacco has aggressively worked the zero-to-15-yard portions of the field, while mixing in five to eight deep shots per game.

On defense, the Browns aim to keep everything in front of them — doing what they can to get after the quarterback, and attacking on short-area throws in an effort to force turnovers and create splash plays. While this leads to a low aDOT and a low catch rate (an impressive combination), it also leads to the Browns being one of the worst teams in the league after the catch, as their aggressiveness provides opportunities for pass catchers to work in open space at times with the ball in their hands.

The leading man on the Ravens is John Brown, who tops the NFL in average depth of target, at 21.9 (4.6 yards higher than second-place man DeSean Jackson), and who ranks fourth in the NFL — behind only Julio Jones, Corey Davis, and Odell Beckham — in percentage share of team air yards. Brown has some nuance to his route tree, but he is being used almost exclusively downfield, with Willie Snead and Michael Crabtree each perfectly capable of handling the short-area throws. This makes this a difficult spot for JB to hit, as the Browns aim to take away exactly what he wants to do. He has seen target counts on the year of four, 10, nine, and seven, so he’ll absolutely remain involved here. Efficiency will likely be an issue, but the big-play upside remains.

Crabtree and Snead continue to work as doppelgängers to one another, with Snead seeing six to eight targets each game and Crabtree seeing six to 10 — and with the two of them running nearly identical route trees, and working the same areas of the field. This offense is built around the idea of Brown going deep and these two providing bodies underneath, making each guy fairly interchangeable in this attack. Snead has the slightly better matchup, running more of his routes over the middle, and has an xYAC/R (expected YAC per reception) of 4.8 compared to 3.1 for Crabtree. Neither of these is an elite mark. Each guy has been little-used in the red zone this year.

Behind the wide receivers, Hayden Hurst is expected to join the already-crowded Baltimore tight end rotation this week.

RAVENS RUN OFFENSE

After finishing last year as one of the top run defenses in the NFL, Cleveland enters Week 5 with a number seven DVOA ranking against the run, and if we take away Marshawn Lynch’s 52-yarder last week, Cleveland is allowing only 3.6 yards per carry to running backs on the year.

This is bad news for a Baltimore backfield that has yet to get on track, with Alex Collins maxing out at 18 carries and 68 yards so far. He is averaging only 3.5 yards per carry to begin the season, and he has had issues in pass protection that are keeping him off the field on passing downs. While he has averaged two catches per game so far, he has topped six receiving yards only once. He has also had fumbling issues that could keep him off the field when the Ravens get closer to the goal line.

Collins is sharing time with Javorius Allen, who has looked underwhelming on the ground at only 2.4 yards per carry, but who has retained his role in the pass game with 19 targets through four games.

Either guy will need a defensive breakdown or a multi-touchdown game in order to be worth a roster spot.

BROWNS PASS OFFENSE

In the first start of his career, rookie Baker Mayfield played much better than his line suggests — as his 21 of 41 passing was sprinkled with at least six drops, and his pick six was a result of one of these drops. Raw rookie Antonio Callaway and football-lazy athletic freak David Njoku were the main culprits, but Jarvis Landry got in on the fun as well (much to my chagrin), creating a more disappointing debut than Mayfield should have had. The Browns find themselves in a tight spot now, as they have three NFL-caliber weapons in the pass game: Callaway, Njoku, and Landry; but because of the massive pile of mental mistakes Callaway has built up through the first few weeks of the season, the Browns are talking about scaling back his snaps — and because Njoku has not bothered to learn how to run sharp routes, Cleveland is failing to squeeze major production out of him as well.

The Browns do not get an easy test this week, against an elite Ravens defense. Without Jimmy Smith, the Ravens have allowed the lowest catch rate in the league (shaving almost 18% off the league average rate), while ranking third — behind only Carolina and Jacksonville — in YAC allowed per reception. There are no areas of the field where Baltimore is weak against the pass, creating a difficult situation across the board for Cleveland’s aerial attack. Baltimore is allowing only 275.8 total yards per game.

If you feel compelled to go here, Jarvis Landry has double-digit targets in three of four games so far and should land in that range again.

If Callaway sees his snaps scaled back, Rod Streater or Damion Ratley would stand to see more snaps, though the true beneficiary would be Rashard Higgins, who has already averaged five targets per game across the last three weeks. Honestly, the best bet in this group for upside remains Callaway, as scaled-back snaps would still likely lead to five to seven targets, and he has plenty of explosive upside on these looks.

Baltimore has been middling against the tight end this year, giving Njoku the best theoretical shot at production. He has huge, athletic-driven upside, but he’ll need some things to go right in order for that upside to pay off this week.

BROWNS RUN OFFENSE

Baltimore ranks ninth in yards allowed per carry and fourth in rushing yards allowed per game, as their passing attack is forcing teams to go more pass-heavy in return than they would like. Cleveland has run-blocked at an above-average rate, ranking 12th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards; though Baltimore’s defense ranks fifth in adjusted line yards themselves.

Carlos Hyde has played well enough to maintain his lead in this backfield, but Nick Chubb has earned more snaps with his explosive play as well. We should still expect 18 to 22 touches for Hyde (he has 22 or 23 carries in three of four games so far), though he’ll need to hit for a long run or a couple touchdowns on these carries, in a difficult matchup, as he has only seven targets on the year.

Expect Chubb to step in for anywhere from four to eight carries this week, while Duke Johnson will continue to soak up limited work in the pass game.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

I am writing up all these lower-total games first this week, in an effort to find upside pieces in tourneys, or to find low-priced guys who can help us fill out the top end of our roster; but this is a spot that appears unlikely to be on the board for me outside of large-field stuff. Even then, it’s simply “upside-hunting” on guys like John Brown and David Njoku — guys who can post a truly start-worthy score, even in a difficult matchup. You could throw Jarvis Landry onto that pile, though even with his price lowered this week, he’ll have a hard time justifying what you’ll have to spend.

Each offense has done a good job protecting the football this season, but each defense is in play this week as a strong unit. Expect at least one or two turnovers from Baker Mayfield, with a few sacks taken, giving Baltimore a path to a decent “floor” game at DST. Neither team profiles as particularly likely to smash, but each is an acceptable way to fill out a roster.

BRONCOS // JETS OVERVIEW

Through four weeks, the Jets enter this game with a better defense than their counterpart, having posted a top five DVOA ranking, while ranking 13th in points allowed and 13th in yards allowed. Denver has disappointed early in the year, ranking 17th in defensive DVOA and 22nd in fewest yards allowed per pass attempt. The pieces are theoretically in place for Denver to remain an elite defense (so far this year, they have generally had coverage breakdowns when their pass rush has been solid, while failing to get pressure when their coverage has been good), and they will look to get on track this week against rookie Sam Darnold.

The Jets have looked to slow down the game this year — ranking 32nd in situation neutral pace of play and 20th in passing play percentage — while the Broncos have been more aggressive, ranking top 10 in pace of play regardless of whether they are trailing or playing with a lead.

With so many high-scoring games available this weekend, this will obviously not be a prime spot to look for DFS goodness, but value appears to be pretty thin at the moment, so we’ll see if we can uncover anything special in this spot.

BRONCOS PASS OFFENSE

The Broncos’ pass offense has been a disaster since Week 1, with Case Keenum throwing three interceptions and zero touchdowns across the last three weeks. No receiver has topped 100 yards since Emmanuel Sanders did so in Week 1, and Sanders’ 96-yard effort in Week 2 has been the only other receiving game north of 63 yards on this team. Todd Bowles’ defense has unsurprisingly focused on forcing passes to the short middle of the field, with borderline-elite aDOT marks, and with much stronger numbers on passes outside the numbers than on passes over the middle. Last week, the Jaguars capitalized on this by feeding Dede Westbrook the ball on short crossers underneath, and the Broncos should aim to do the same with Emmanuel Sanders this week.

On DraftKings and FantasyDraft, Sanders’ price reflects his role, as he is priced at 14.2% and 13.3% of the salary cap, respectively. On FanDuel, however, Sanders stands out at only 11.17% of the cap. He has seen target counts on the year of 11, four, eight, and seven, and Denver is playing on the road against a team that likes to slow down the game, so this is by no means a lock-and-load spot. But Sanders deserves consideration as the best piece on this passing attack, lining up nicely against the Jets as the best way to move the ball against them.

Washed-up Demaryius Thomas and future superstar Courtland Sutton will continue to see looks on the outside — offering low floor, but big-play upside. After seeing 21 targets the first two weeks of the season, Demaryius has dropped to 12 targets the last two weeks; Sutton has held steady, with target counts of five, six, three, and six to begin the year. Each guy is now seeing the old Demaryius Thomas wide receiver screens at the line of scrimmage, so it is worth noting that the Jets rank dead last in the NFL in YAC allowed per reception. The Jets are not bad at tackling on a per-play basis; but all the short passes against them are leading to a couple breakdowns per game.

With Jake Butt suffering a torn ACL last week, Jeff Heuerman played 53 of a possible 60 snaps and saw seven targets — which he turned into a 4-57-0 line. The Jets have been above-average against the tight end since the beginning of last year, but Heuerman is similar to someone like Geoff Swaim last week: low upside, but with a guaranteed role — and with potential to pay off nicely at a low salary on the off chance you capture a touchdown.

BRONCOS RUN OFFENSE

The Jets rank seventh in yards allowed per carry (one spot ahead of Denver’s defense), and they have impressively allowed a long run on the season of only 23 yards (sixth best in the NFL). Obviously, that does not mean it’s impossible for this defense to break down and allow a huge run, but it does point to “volume” as being an important element against this run defense.

Through four weeks, “volume” has been tough to come by in the Broncos’ backfield — and with both Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman running well, there is no reason for this to change any time soon. If we take away his ejection, Lindsay has touch counts of 18, 15, and 14; Freeman has touch counts of 15, eight, and eight in those weeks. Lindsay has eight targets on the year to only two for Freeman. They have split work inside the 10-yard-line pretty evenly, with four carries for Lindsay and three for Freeman.

Devontae Booker continues to mix in on passing downs, with 11 carries and 11 targets on the season.

JETS PASS OFFENSE

Sam Darnold has struggled since his first game, throwing four interceptions to only two touchdowns — while failing to complete more than 50% of his passes in back-to-back games, and failing to push the ball downfield. The last point is more on play-caller Jeremy Bates than it is on Darnold, but the end result is the same: this offense has been obsessed with the short area of the field to begin the year, with almost no willingness to take shots. Part of this, of course, is a “go with what’s working” approach. Over the last two weeks, Darnold has completed one of seven passes that have traveled more than 20 yards downfield, with zero touchdowns and an interception.

This is too bad for the Jets, as the deep middle of the field has been a trouble spot for the Broncos. Early in the year, they have graded out as the worst team in football over the deep middle, and only three teams (the Bucs, Chiefs, and Chargers) have allowed more pass plays of 20+ yards. This oil-and-water matchup will make it tough for the Jets to capitalize.

The good news is that Robby Anderson has not died. In fact, he ranks eighth in the NFL in average depth of target, and over the last three weeks he has quietly seen target counts of five, four, and six. If anyone on this team is going to hit for a big play this week, it is likeliest to be Anderson.

Anderson’s volume has taken a hit with Quincy Enunwa soaking up eight to 11 targets every game in what essentially functions as the “tight end” role in this offense. Enunwa, of course, runs almost 70% of his snaps from the slot, where he will contend with All World corner Chris Harris. Enunwa has four inches on Harris, but size has rarely been an issue for Harris, who wins with technique. This is a tough draw for Enunwa.

Terrelle Pryor played two snaps last week with a groin injury and is currently questionable for this week. His absence opened additional snaps for Jermaine Kearse, who saw five targets and will surely post a couple of random big games this season.

The Jets’ tight end rotation has led to only two games this year in which an individual player topped two targets, with Jordan Leggett seeing four targets last week, and with Chris Herndon seeing four targets in Week 2.

JETS RUN OFFENSE

Denver has taken steps back against the run this year as well, after being a top three unit last season, ranking 19th in DVOA early in the year — though they do rank a respectable eighth in yards allowed per carry. I’m overlooking that DVOA mark, as it was sitting at fifth before the Chiefs had their way on Monday night. Kansas City will make a lot of good units look bad this year, and this is still a difficult matchup.

Isaiah Crowell has touch counts on the year of 10, 14, 18, and five, while Bilal Powell has touched the ball 13 times, 10 times, 14 times, and 12 times. This is a clear, even timeshare, with Crow playing 104 snaps on the season to 128 for Powell. Powell will catch more passes, while Crowell will have more scoring opportunities. It’s a tough backfield to get excited about from a floor/ceiling perspective.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

The most appealing DFS options in this game are the defenses. Neither team has been elite at rushing the passer, but each ranks in the top half of the league in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate, and the Jets rank third in the NFL in takeaways and third worst in the NFL in giveaways. Each team’s offensive line has held up fairly well, but each defense should have an opportunity for two to four sacks and one to three takeaways.

As for actual players: Sanders stands out as a fringe option on FanDuel, while Robby Anderson has some interesting upside to his game in tourneys — especially given how tight salary is on DraftKings this week, and how cheap Anderson is. Still, there is nothing in this game — on either side — that will warrant strong attention from me, given my style of “narrowing things down to the best plays on the slate.” There are a number of things that “could happen” in this game to yield production from any of a handful of players; but from a “likeliest to happen” standpoint, this is a game I’ll avoid on both offenses.

PACKERS // LIONS OVERVIEW

The Lions have struggled to begin the year, allowing the third most yards per carry and the ninth most yards per pass attempt, and only eight teams have allowed more points per game. Only five teams have allowed more points per drive than Detroit.

Detroit further increases shootout potential by ranking ninth in the NFL in yards per drive — and while they rank 17th in points per game, this is largely the result of a red zone offense that ranks dead last in touchdown percentage, one year after ranking 10th. The Lions have the same offensive pieces as last year (with the addition of Kerryon Johnson), and these red zone woes should evaporate soon enough.

The Packers have also struggled in the red zone to begin this season, with only four teams scoring touchdowns at a lower rate. The Packers get bad news in this spot, as Detroit quietly ranks third in red zone touchdown rate on defense — carrying over the same bend-but-don’t break philosophy that Matt Patricia had with the Patriots.

PACKERS PASS OFFENSE

Aaron Rodgers has not quite been himself to begin the year — failing to top 300 passing yards in a game through four weeks of the season, and tossing “only” seven touchdowns. While he did take off for 31 rushing yards last week on five carries, his lack of mobility is obviously changing the way he has to play — and this week, he could be without two of his top three targets in Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison. Cobb said he was nowhere close to playing last week and seems unlikely to be close this week, either. Allison is hoping to clear concussion protocol, but much of that is obviously out of his hands.

Interestingly, no team has faced fewer pass attempts than the Lions so far this year…and only three teams have notched more sacks this season. Detroit ranks second in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate, as their pass rush has been a big bonus to begin the year. Teams are leaning on the run against Detroit in order to protect their quarterback and take advantage of the Lions’ greatest weakness, which has led to only two teams in football facing more rush attempts than the Lions, and to no teams allowing more rushing yards. (It’s not even close.) Green Bay ranks sixth in passing play percentage to begin the year, and Rodgers generally prefers to stick to the pass and control the game himself when he can; but it’s reasonable to expect him to finish below 40 pass attempts for the first time since Week 1.

The best piece on the Lions’ back end has unsurprisingly been Darius Slay, who has allowed only seven catches for 64 yards on 14 targets through four games — with only 12 total yards allowed after the catch. Slay will see plenty of Davante Adams, but with the Lions primarily leaving him on his side of the field this year, Adams should avoid him on 70% of his routes. After last week’s 14 target game for Adams, Rodgers said that Adams should have been given 20 looks. Rodgers is a strong “trust” guy (he loves throwing to the guys he feels most comfortable throwing to), so look for Adams to harvest a large number of targets this week if Allison and Cobb both sit.

If Allison gets cleared to play in time, he shapes up as the second option in this attack after seeing target counts of eight, six, four, and 11 to begin the year. Those 11 targets came in only three quarters last week before the concussion hit. Even with chances of a run-leaning game script elevated in this spot, Allison will see plenty of work if he is out there.

If Allison remains on the sidelines, Jimmy Graham will likely be leaned on after seeing six to eight targets in three consecutive games. Green Bay will have even more incentive to lean toward the run if Allison misses, but there should be enough volume for Graham to stick to his typical range — giving him enough floor and ceiling to be considered in this spot.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling took over the slot snaps last week, but he disappointingly saw only three targets in a matchup that set up perfectly for him to see a large amount of work. This week, he’ll take on Jamal Agnew, who has allowed 10 catches for 141 yards on only 13 targets, with 62 yards allowed after the catch. MVS will be one of the fastest men on the field this Sunday, giving him clear upside; but volume will be a concern — even as the clear number three in this attack — as Rodgers practically ignored him in a prime Week 4 spot. MVS has legitimate slate-winning upside if he gets involved this week, but that involvement is not a given.

The target distribution on the Packers will likely flow through Adams, Graham, MVS, and the running backs if Allison misses. Last week, the Packers leaned on two tight end sets with Lance Kendricks (two targets; one catch for five yards) and gave J’Mon Moore 11 snaps (zero targets). Equanimeous St. Brown could also take over as a starter this week — but targets should be thin in this spot regardless.

PACKERS RUN OFFENSE

This is a prime spot on the slate from a team-performance perspective, though the Packers frustratingly continue to split the backfield reps among Aaron Jones (29 snaps last week), Jamaal Williams (28 snaps), and Ty Montgomery (20 snaps). We have used “pass blocking” as the reason for Jones taking a backseat to Williams, though it should be noted that Williams pass blocked on only four plays last week (while Jones pass blocked on three). This opens optimism that Jones will continue to see his role expand after hammering opponents for 6.3 yards per carry across his first 17 totes on the year (compared to Williams’ 3.4 yards per carry across 47 totes).

There are whispers that Mike McCarthy is aware that Jones is his best back (how could he not be?), but that he wants to keep him fresh for the stretch run of the season. It has rarely been in the Packers’ arsenal to give a back 20 carries to begin with, so our best bet here is to hope the Packers go run-heavy, and that Jones sees 14 to 16 carries. The likeliest scenario is another 10 to 13 carry game. He has one target in each game to begin the year.

Montgomery will continue to be involved in the pass game, while taking on a few carries of his own. Williams will need a touchdown or two (or a broken play) in order to pay off.

LIONS PASS OFFENSE

As always: the thing we love about Detroit is that their distribution of targets is extremely reliable, with Marvin Jones, Golden Tate, and Kenny Golladay accounting for over 88% of this team’s air yards through the first four weeks of the season. Very few teams have a reliable target distribution this narrow — giving all of these guys at least moderate floor and ceiling every single week. Detroit ranks 10th in passing yards per game one year after ranking sixth. Only three teams are throwing the ball more frequently than the Lions.

The Packers have been below-average against the pass to begin the year, and they have especially struggled downfield, ranking 23rd against downfield passing according to Football Outsiders. The Packers’ only real test so far through the air has been the Vikings (otherwise, they faced the Bears, Redskins, and Bills). In that game, Adam Thielen went 12-131-1 on 13 targets, while Stefon Diggs went 9-128-2 on 13 targets.

All three of these wide receivers on the Lions are capable of running the routes that Diggs and Thielen tortured this team with (lots of short, quick throws, mixed in with some simple second-level routes, some crossing routes, and some double-moves that were able to spring them deep downfield), so there is really nothing that helps us pinpoint usage for this matchup. What we do know is that Jones offers the most pure upside, with the deepest aDOT on the team (tied with Mike Williams for fifth in the NFL) and with the largest share of the Lions’ air yards. Golladay has the best floor/ceiling combo, with a smaller share of the team’s air yards, and with a less aggressive downfield role, but with more overall targets (32 through four games, to 29 for Jones). Tate has the highest pure floor, with 44 targets on the year; and while his short-area work theoretically gives him less upside, his elite YAC ability bumps off some of the concerns, and his ability to go downfield when necessary bumps off the rest of the concerns.

Behind these three, the Lions’ passing attack is scraps. Jones // Golladay // Tate dominate looks in this offense.

LIONS RUN OFFENSE

The Lions continue to employ an upside-killing three-man backfield, with Matt Patricia saying this week that Kerryon Johnson is getting enough work. So far this season, Johnson has seen touch counts of eight, 13, 18, and 10, while LeGarrette Blount has seen touch counts of four, nine, 18, and seven. Theo Riddick retains his role on passing downs, with touch counts of nine, nine, three, and five.

Green Bay has invited teams to attack on the ground, and they rank 22nd in yards allowed per carry, so the matchup is non-threatening; but in order for Kerryon to pay off, he will need a couple of big runs or a spike in workload. The Lions have yet to secure a carry inside the five-yard-line this year, but they have given two carries apiece to Blount and Kerryon inside the 10. Blount has zero yards on these two carries, while Kerryon has 13 yards and a touchdown.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

There is a chance that either (or both) of these teams could lean on the run in this spot, as this is the best way to attack each defense; but given the nature of Aaron Rodgers on the Packers and the facts at hand with Jim Bob Cooter calling plays for the Lions, the likeliest scenario is that each team will continue their pass-heavy ways (each team enters this game in the top six in the NFL in passing play percentage).

Each quarterback is in play in tourneys (behind the guys in the more obvious pass-leaning shootouts, but with similar upside), while we should expect a big workload for Davante Adams and (to a lesser extent) Jimmy Graham on the Packers, with Marquez Valdes-Scantling standing out as a high-upside tourney flier. MVS is the kind of play that could enable you to go fairly chalky elsewhere on your roster — and on the outside chance he hits, you’ll be seeing dollar signs all day Sunday.

I like all the pieces in the Lions’ passing attack, though it is frustrating that so little separates one from the other. More than likely, we will see one spiked game from this group, one respectable game, and one disappointing game. These may not be good enough odds for cash games, but I like them for tourneys. Jones is especially underpriced on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, while Golladay is especially underpriced on FanDuel.

I like Aaron Jones and Kerryon Johnson as “bet on talent” plays in a good matchup — and with value a bit thin this week, either guy makes sense on DraftKings or FantasyDraft as a “bank on eight points, hope for 20” sort of play. Kerryon has shown more usage in the pass game, while Jones has the better matchup. Each guy is set aside for tourneys only for me.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE // Full “Updates” List

No “official words” here yet, but it appears likely that Davante Adams and Marvin Jones both play. Randall Cobb is out. It appears likely that Geronimo Allison misses.

If Adams plays and Allison misses, Marquez Valdes-Scantling becomes interesting as a salary saver. I’ll have his targets pegged at around four to seven, as I expect Rodgers to over-target Adams (while also leaning on both Jimmy Graham and the run game a little bit more). MVS has potential to beat that target projection if Rodgers unexpectedly goes out of his way to involve his rookie wide receiver more prominently. In this case, Adams also joins guys like Julio Jones, “Vikings receivers,” and “Steelers receivers” among the top wide receiver plays available. I’ll still probably leave him sixth on that list, given the tight matchup with Darius Slay, but it’s a close sixth. He’ll be in play as a strong tourney option.

If Adams misses, MVS should spike in targets. There will still be some guesswork involved here, but it just won’t make sense for him to see fewer than seven or eight targets if he is the only guy out there with actual playing time under his belt.

JAGUARS // CHIEFS OVERVIEW

This is a “hedge line” by Vegas, as there is a massive range of outcomes in this game between the best offense in the NFL and the best defense in the NFL. No team has allowed fewer points per game than the Jaguars, and no team has scored more points per game than the Chiefs.

The Jags will likely try to shorten this game and limit the time Patrick Mahomes spends on the field, and Mahomes could struggle to get going, which could lead to this being one of the lower-scoring games on the weekend. Conversely, this game is in Kansas City, and the Jags have been susceptible to blowup games in the last couple years, which opens opportunities for this to turn into one of the higher-scoring affairs on the weekend.

At first glance, this looks like it will be a game to avoid in cash, while standing out as a sneaky game to target in tourneys. Let’s dig in and see what we can find.

CHIEFS PASS OFFENSE

We usually begin with the road offense, but since the flow of this game is almost certain to be dictated by the Chiefs, we will start with the home team here.

No team has allowed fewer passing yards per game than the Jags, and only two teams have allowed fewer average yards per pass attempt. Only three teams have allowed a lower catch rate than the Jags, and no team has allowed fewer yards after the catch on a per-reception basis. This pass defense is in a league of its own.

Last year, there was a two-part recipe for beating the Jags:

1. Run the ball against them

2. Gain short fields by forcing Blake Bortles turnover and mistakes

The only teams that succeeded through the air to any notable extent were the Patriots and the Steelers. The Patriots picked up small gains over the middle with Danny Amendola in the AFC Championship game last year, and otherwise spread the ball around, with targets being fed to eight different players to attack the Jags from as many angles as possible. The Steelers attacked relentlessly with Antonio Brown, and they landed a blowup game from Vance McDonald with the Jags focused on AB, Smith-Schuster, and Bell.

The Chiefs will look to spread out the Jaguars and attack on both the short and deep levels. With the Jags’ superior discipline and communication, we are unlikely to see much impact from the Chiefs’ misdirection.

The first order of business for the Jags will be keeping eyes on Tyreek Hill at all times. Against most teams, this would open an opportunity for attacking underneath with other weapons, but the Jags have the bodies to play tight coverage on Travis Kelce as well. In last year’s AFC Championship game, Jacksonville held Rob Gronkowski to one catch for 21 yards (on three targets) before he was concussed halfway through the game on a vicious hit from Barry Church.

If Sammy Watkins misses this week, Chris Conley will likely step into the third spot on the target ladder, though there is a chance that Kareem Hunt will become more involved. Hill will also see his role grow (and his route tree become more nuanced) if Watkins misses. If you are desperate to play Hill in this spot, it’s worth noting that Brandin Cooks hit for 6-100-0 on eight targets in the AFC Championship. Hill has a strong shot to climb above his typical eight targets if Watkins is out.

CHIEFS RUN OFFENSE

Last year — as noted above — the way to beat the Jags was on the ground. This year? If we take away that 68-yarder from Saquon Barkley against the Jags in Week 1, they are allowing only 2.8 yards per carry to running backs, which makes this an extremely difficult spot for Kareem Hunt and the KC rushing attack. Last week, Hunt played only 45 of a possible 78 snaps, introducing further concerns with his pass role dropping (target counts of one, one, one, and four on the year). We saw last week against Denver what Hunt can do with the ball in his hands (6.4 yards per carry, and 18.0 yards per catch on three receptions), against what had previously been a stout run defense — so I’m never willing to fully count him out. But until his role changes, he’ll remain a guy who is relying on big plays and touchdowns. The Jags have allowed only one rushing play of 20+ yards this season.

JAGUARS PASS OFFENSE

The Chiefs’ pass defense has been below-average in all areas, and across all levels of the field. They have not been as atrocious as most want them to be — but they have been bad; and as with last year, their biggest issue has been the big play, with the Chiefs tied with the Chargers and Bucs for the most pass plays allowed of 20+ yards.

The difficulty in attacking this matchup on our DFS rosters in Week 5 is twofold:

1) The Jaguars would prefer to go run-heavy when they can (and the Chiefs can certainly be had on the ground).

2) The Jags have been rotating featured receivers, with Dede Westbrook, Keelan Cole, and Donte Moncrief taking turns at the top of the ladder.

Because the Jags will be with T.J. Yeldon and Corey Grant in the backfield for another week, there are reasons to assume we see more responsibility given to Blake Bortles than this team would otherwise want to give him — and as such, it’s fair to assume we get at least one strong game from this wide receiver corps. Last week, Cole ran 38 pass routes, Westbrook ran 37, and Moncrief ran 36. Cole has seen games of eight and nine targets, and games of three and four, while Westbrook’s target counts have been six, five, four, and 13. Moncrief has gone five, nine, three, and five. He’s the least likely to produce each week — but as we saw last week, this does not make him incapable of producing.

Behind these three, Austin Seferian-Jenkins went for two catches on four targets last week (after going for three catches on five targets each of the first three weeks). He kept up his yardage consistency, landing in the 18 to 25 yard range once again. He’ll need a touchdown in order to pay off — and even then, his line will be a bit thin.

JAGUARS RUN OFFENSE

Last week with Leonard Fournette starting, T.J. Yeldon saw his most carries on the year, with 18 — taking over once Fournette went down, but turning these touches into only 52 yards. He has yet to top 58 rushing yards in a game this year, but his lines have been boosted by his pass game work, with target counts of seven, five, seven, and three to begin the year, and with over 45 yards receiving in back-to-back games. Fournette is set to miss this week, and Yeldon should be in line for another 12 to 18 touches — with the landing spot in that range determined primarily by game flow. If this game stays close, Yeldon will yield more work to Corey Grant; if the Jags take a lead, Yeldon will be leaned on more heavily.

Grant has yet to top 10 touches in a game, and will need a big play in order to pay off. He is, of course, a big play specialist, but he appears to be a thin play on such limited guaranteed volume.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

The best way to play this game is by simply betting on different game environments. I will be avoiding this game in cash games, as there are simply too many high-scoring affairs on the slate for me to feel the need to attack such an iffy spot. But in tourneys — more specifically: in tourneys if you are building more than one roster this weekend — you could play out this matchup any number of ways. You could hammer Mahomes to Kelce or Mahomes to Hill, in the hopes that one of these pairings goes off against the Jags’ stout defense. You could also roster Hunt, in the hopes the Chiefs scheme him the ball in order to keep the Jags off balance — which could lead to a couple big plays.

You could bring back these plays on the other side with touchdown-and-usage bets on Yeldon, or with a shot on Cole, Westbrook, or Moncrief (I would rank those guys in that order — though it’s close between Cole and Westbrook; obviously, usage rotates enough on these guys that any of them could go off). You could even leave Mahomes on the sidelines and roster Bortles in this spot instead.

With any of this, you would essentially be betting on the Over for this game — which is not a crazy bet, given how explosive Kansas City is. And if the Chiefs do jump out to an early lead, the Jags have the ability to put up some big games in return.

As always, the time to bet on a talented player (or a talented offense) in a tough spot is when you feel that player (or offense) has the opportunity to post a week-winning score. The Chiefs already have a Vegas-implied total of 26.0 against this stout Jags defense, so it would not be crazy for them to climb to four or even five touchdowns, and to produce some of the better stat lines on the slate.

Of course, this is not a bet I’ll be making with any large percentage of my bankroll, as this is still the Jags — and this fact lowers floor on all these guys. But I will attack this game with a few stacks, as the Chiefs are explosive enough to find a way to produce.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE // Full “Updates” List

Leonard Fournette is not going to play in this game, which we’ve basically known since the start of the week — but I’m beginning to really come around on this side of the ball in this game. While we don’t know exactly how well the Chiefs’ offense will do, or who will put up points and yards on the Chiefs (or how they will do it), we do know that the Jags should have to lean more pass-heavy in this spot, in a good matchup. I’ll have more on this in the Player Grid, but I’m becoming more and more comfortable with the idea of playing Blake Bortles and/or his receivers. Yeldon and Grant are also in play, as the touches in this game have to go somewhere — in a great matchup against the Kansas City defense. Yeldon has a respectable floor and a moderate ceiling; Grant has a low floor, but he has potential for a spiked week if the workload shows up.

DOLPHINS // BENGALS OVERVIEW

The Bengals’ defense has been a disappointment to begin the year, ranking 23rd in total DVOA, while ranking 29th in yards allowed per game and 23rd in points allowed per game. This is unlikely to yield big “individual” fantasy production from the low-volume, spread-it-around Dolphins, but Miami’s underrated offense should be able to score points in this game — forcing the Bengals’ offense to respond in turn.

The Bengals’ offense, of course, has been elite to begin the year — ranking only 16th in yards per game, but ranking fourth in points per game. The Bengals’ yardage totals have been a victim of efficiency and limited plays, as Cincy ranks sixth in yards per drive, fourth in points per drive, and third in Drive Success Rate — behind only the Rams and Chiefs. Miami has been strong in the red zone — ranking ninth in touchdown rate on defense — but they have otherwise had a difficult time slowing down opponents, allowing the eighth-most yards per drive.

The interesting wrinkle in this game is that each of these teams does a poor job piling up plays — with Miami ranking 31st in plays per game, and with Cincy ranking 24th. On Miami’s side, this is partly the result of them slowing down the game (32nd in pace of play), and is partly the result of them having a hard time getting opponents off the field (only four teams are allowing more opponent plays per game than Miami). On Cincinnati’s side: they are playing at an above-average pace on offense, but only the Bucs and Chiefs are allowing more yards per drive than the Bengals, which is allowing opponents to bleed time off the clock and limit the plays the Bengals run.

With two teams that allow above-average plays to opponents while running below-average plays themselves, we should see a spike in total plays on at least one side — with the likeliest scenario in this spot being each team rising five to eight plays above their season average.

DOLPHINS PASS OFFENSE

Ryan Tannehill has topped 23 pass attempts only once this year (28 attempts against Tennessee), and he has topped 230 passing yards only once as well (289 yards vs Oakland). Miami does rank fourth in yards per pass attempt, as Tannehill has been pushing the ball downfield more than we would typically expect — ranking 10th in average intended air yards.

The Bengals’ pass defense has been below-average in every metric except YAC allowed per reception — where they have been elite this year, ranking behind only the Jags, Panthers, and Ravens.

We are still waiting for a Dolphins pass catcher to exceed six targets in a game — a mark that Danny Amendola, Albert Wilson, and Kenny Stills have each hit once. Amendola has returned very little upside on his underneath role, while Albert Wilson is primarily being schemed the ball in the short areas of the field, in the hopes he can do something big with the ball in his hands.

The main downfield weapon for Miami is Stills, who quietly ranks third in the NFL — behind only John Brown and DeSean Jackson — in average depth of target, at 17.0 yards downfield. Stills is getting there with one to three high-efficiency targets each week in the short area of the field, and with the rest of his targets coming on shots downfield. He’s a low-floor, high-upside piece in this matchup — with potential for a spike to seven or eight targets if the Dolphins manage to run a few more plays than normal.

Behind these three, the tight ends have been absolute afterthoughts on this team, with A.J. Derby and Mike Gesicki combining for 10 targets through four games. With Derby out of action last week, Gesicki turned two targets into one catch for nine yards.

The Dolphins will also mix in Jakeem Grant if DeVante Parker misses again. If Parker plays, he’s likelier to eat into Wilson’s targets than Stills’.

DOLPHINS RUN OFFENSE

The matchup for the Dolphins’ rushing attack is non-threatening, with the Bengals ranking 21st in fewest rushing yards allowed per game and 19th in fewest yards allowed per carry — but the obstacle for us, from a DFS perspective, is the split nature of this backfield.

Through four games, Kenyan Drake has seen touch counts of 17, 15, seven, and four, while Frank Gore has touched the ball nine, 10, six, and 13 times. It’s getting old to say it, but Drake has some of the highest per-touch upside in the league. Obviously, he will need to actually see some touches before he can be considered usable. With Miami ranking 29th in passing play percentage and likely able to keep drives alive vs Cincy this week, we could see Drake in the 15-touch range again, giving him tourney upside — though obviously, his floor remains about as low as can be at this point.

BENGALS PASS OFFENSE

Miami has the pieces to be really strong against the pass, but with only six sacks on the season, they are giving quarterbacks time to get comfortable in the pocket and to allow receivers to peel open. The Bengals have had one of the best pass-blocking units in the league to begin the year (fourth in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate), which should create opportunities this week for splash plays from a Bengals attack that has been one of the most consistent units in the league.

The closest comp to Miami’s pass defense right now is the Browns — as Miami (similar to Cleveland) allows a below-average aDOT and a below-average catch rate, while allowing big YAC per reception. Only the Browns have allowed more yards after the catch on a per-reception basis than Miami has allowed. The way to attack this unit is with short passes (particularly short passes over the middle) that open opportunities for yards after the catch.

With that being the case, this once again profiles as a Tyler Boyd game, with his 68% slot rate giving him a perfect opportunity to take advantage in this spot. Boyd has an aDOT of 9.1 (compared to 12.9 for A.J. Green), and last week he saw 15 targets, with 11 of these coming within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, and with only one of these targets coming more than 15 yards downfield. A.J. Green, meanwhile, saw eight targets — with all of these looks coming outside the hash marks, and with five of these eight looks coming more than 15 yards downfield. Green will see his seven to 10 looks once again, and — as we saw against Baltimore — he has the talent-driven upside to smash in any matchup; but price-considered floor is thinned out in this spot, given what Miami aims to do on defense.

These two are the clear keys to this passing attack, with Alex Erickson eating up space on 36 snaps last week (compared to 62 for Boyd and 69 for Green) — good for third on the team among receivers, but good for only two targets (his first two on the year). Erickson will see his snaps recede if John Ross is able to play this week. Ross played just under half of the Bengals’ snaps in Week 3 (before ducking in and out of last week’s game with a groin injury and playing only 18 snaps). He’ll have a few plays designed to go to him if he is on the field, with three to five targets his likeliest range. He’ll have a tough time hitting downfield against this defense — though he obviously has the speed to make something special happen, as a thin tourney play.

Targets are further concentrated on this offense with the loss of Tyler Eifert. Last week, Tyler Kroft picked up 20 snaps, while C.J. Uzomah picked up 51. Uzomah ran 33 pass routes to only six for Kroft. Uzomah has lined up in the slot or out wide 42 times this year, compared to only 10 times for Kroft, giving him the best bet at pass game involvement. As expected, Miami has improved against the tight end this year, but they are still a middling matchup — giving Uzomah opportunity for around four to six targets.

BENGALS RUN OFFENSE

Health is the big question here, as Joe Mixon “practiced in full pads” on Wednesday, but was limited and has still not been fully cleared, while Giovani Bernard missed Wednesday’s practice with a knee ailment. Before the Gio news, it appeared that Mixon was still one more week away — though if Gio misses, the Bengals may be forced to rush Mixon back for what would likely turn into a sizable workload.

The matchup is not great. Miami ranks sixth in yards allowed per carry to begin the year, and they rank 12th in DVOA against the run — and Gio has played well enough that we will have a lot of question marks regarding workload if each guy is active.

If only one guy is active, however, we should once again see a snap rate north of 85%, with heavy involvement on the ground and through the air. In Weeks 1 and 2, Mixon touched the ball 22 times per game, while Gio has seen touch counts of 17 and 19 with Mixon on the sidelines. The Bengals should see a few more plays than normal this week, and the loss of Tyler Eifert should further involve the backfield in the pass game, giving either guy a clear path to 20+ touches if the other is inactive. Each guy is priced fairly for his role and the matchup on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, and each guy is underpriced on FanDuel.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

There is a strong chance that we see points and yards pile up gradually throughout this game, with a pair of creative offenses that can piece together long drives against these defenses.

We still have plenty of DFS uncertainty on the Dolphins, simply given their style of play — and the closest I imagine I’ll get on this team is a tourney shot on Stills or Drake, with neither creeping toward my main roster. But on the other side, we have yet another strong spot for Boyd after he has seen target counts of nine, seven, and 15 over the last three weeks, and we should have workload security in this backfield (with plenty of room for upside through yardage, goal line work, and pass game involvement) if only one of Mixon/Gio is healthy.

Andy Dalton is a fine tourney play, though there are better spots this week. A.J. Green has week-winning talent-driven upside, as always, but the matchup is tough for him on the outside. I also like C.J. Uzomah as a somewhat guesswork-driven tight end play — but he should see the field plenty, and should run plenty of pass routes. If Miami does a good job slowing down Green on the outside, targets will flow to the running back, to Boyd, and — thirdly — to Uzomah and Kroft, with Uzomah the much likelier bet to hit.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE // Full “Updates” List

It sounds like Joe Mixon is not quite a hundred percent just yet. There are whispers that the Bengals are not going to ride him in this game the way they did the first two weeks (and the way they did with Gio the last couple weeks). Mixon’s floor drops a few notches with that news, making him less overwhelmingly appealing. His ceiling remains mostly intact.

GIANTS // PANTHERS OVERVIEW

The 2-1 Panthers come off an early bye to play a home game against the reeling 1-3 Giants, for what looks like a lopsided matchup in spite of the talent the Giants boast on offense. This should be a slowed-down game, with Carolina ranking 25th in pace of play to begin the year and the Giants ranking 31st. Only six teams have allowed fewer opponent plays per game than the Panthers, and only eight teams have allowed fewer opponent plays per game than the Giants.

Only two teams have run the ball more frequently than the Panthers, and only five teams have thrown the ball more frequently than the Giants. Teams have been taking a page out of the Cowboys’ playbook and playing plenty of soft zone against the Giants to prevent Odell Beckham from having the huge yardage impact he is used to having. Pat Shurmur said this week that Saquon Barkley should have received more carries this last week against that look — and Saquon talked about how he and the Giants’ offensive linemen need to see those soft zones as a sign of disrespect. Expect a greater emphasis on the run this week…though with Saquon seeing rushing numbers so far of 18, 11, 17, and 10 (compared to 37 or more pass attempts for Eli Manning in three of four games), “more volume” doesn’t necessarily mean “elite volume.” The Giants will obviously have a tougher time sticking to this plan if the Panthers jump out to an early lead.

GIANTS PASS OFFENSE

In spite of all the pass attempts, the Giants rank 19th in passing yards per game, as they rank only 22nd in yards per pass attempt. Eli Manning has thrown only one interception on the season, but he has taken 15 sacks and tossed only four touchdowns, with the Giants ranking 21st in red zone touchdown rate. The Giants rank 22nd in drive success rate — which measures the number of individual series that result in a first down or a touchdown (essentially, the number of successful “sets of downs”).

The strength of this Carolina pass defense is their ability to tackle well after the catch, as the Jaguars are the only team in football that has allowed a lower YAC per reception. On the one hand, this creates a poor matchup for a receiver in Odell Beckham who lives on YAC — but Beckham is still Beckham, as evidenced by the 11-111-0 line he posted on the Jaguars in Week 1. Beckham has at least nine targets in every game this year, and his usage is even more locked-in than normal with Evan Engram out. Only Julio Jones and Corey Davis have a larger share of their team’s air yards than Beckham, and he is one game shy of tying his career-long touchdown drought — which means we should expect things to swing back in his favor soon. The Panthers play exactly the type of zone defense that can give Beckham problems after the catch, but he still carries week-winning tourney upside.

This hollowed out passing attack jumps straight from Beckham to Sterling Shepard, who saw 10 targets last week — only one shy of Beckham. Realistically, with Manning throwing 41 times, we would have expected even more looks than that for each of these guys, but this being the Giants: Wayne Gallman, Russell Shepard, Rhett Ellison, and Scott Simonson combined for 12 targets — robbing looks from three elite players in Beckham, Shepard, and Barkley. Eli will likely end up in the 35 attempt range in this spot, and another 10 or 11 looks for Beckham and eight or nine looks for Shepard is the likeliest scenario. Beckham saw only one target last week more than 15 yards downfield, and only four targets more than five yards downfield, with his other seven looks coming within five yards of the line of scrimmage. Shepard saw two targets more than 15 yards downfield, one additional target more than five yards downfield, and everything else close to the line of scrimmage. Obviously, either of these guys will need a touchdown or a revamped offense in order to really pay off against a unit that tackles as well as the Panthers.

GIANTS RUN OFFENSE

Barkley can say all he wants that he and his offensive linemen should take it as a challenge when defenses play back to stop the pass, but he is still left dealing with an offensive line that ranks 31st in adjusted line yards. Barkley became only the fifth back in NFL history to record at least 100 yards from scrimmage in four straight games to start a career, which speaks to his on-his-own talent; but for now, he will have to continue doing things on his own, as his line is giving him no help.

The Panthers have faced Ezekiel Elliott, Tevin Coleman, and Giovani Bernard to open the season, and they enter this week ranked 28th in yards allowed per carry. If they play back against the pass (which they are likely to do), and if Saquon gets the touches he should be getting (20+ per game), there is a chance he breaks out for his first monster game of the season — with his offensive line as his greatest obstacle. Obviously, Saquon has shown his high floor to begin the year, with at least five targets in every game, at least 100 total yards in every game, and three total touchdowns.

PANTHERS PASS OFFENSE

Because the Panthers slow down the pace and lean on the run, they rank in the middle of the pack in total plays per game — which especially eats into volume for this passing attack, as Cam Newton has pass attempt numbers of 26, 45, and 24. The two games sandwiching that spiked week were by design, in wins against the Cowboys and Bengals. The 45-pass game came in a shootout against the Falcons, and 15 of those targets were directed toward Christian McCaffrey. With the Giants likely to get in their own way on offense throughout this game, it is likely that Cam remains below 30 pass attempts once again. With a good six to eight of these looks likely ticketed for McCaffrey, this leaves very little in the way of additional volume for the other pieces of this passing attack.

The matchup is tough on the outside for Devin Funchess, who will likely be trailed by Janoris Jenkins. Jenkins has had a rough season — giving up 19 catches for 268 yards and a touchdown already (on only 25 targets) — though those numbers are somewhat inflated by the big pass play that Tavon Austin burned him on in Week 2, and by matchups with DeAndre Hopkins and Michael Thomas. Jenkins held both Hopkins and Thomas to below-average marks, and Funchess is not nearly the route-runner that those two guys are.

After Week 2, Ron Rivera said that rookie receiver D.J. Moore needed to start seeing more time on the field — and he followed up this statement by giving him 33 of a possible 67 snaps. What Rivera failed to realize was that Moore needed to actually be running pass routes in order to make an impact, as he somehow ran only seven routes, while run blocking 25 times. Torrey Smith (23 routes) and Jarius Wright (17 routes) continued to play invisibly in front of him. Moore was the first wide receiver taken in the draft this year (ahead of Calvin Ridley), and he has some Steve Smith to his game — with some beat writers this summer expecting him to make a big impact this season. If you want to take a low-floor flier on a potential upside play, it would make sense for the Panthers to have used the bye to work Moore into the rotation more fully; and it would make sense for him to see five or six targets if that’s the case, with Funchess blanketed by Jenkins.

PANTHERS RUN OFFENSE

Ian Thomas has not been reliable in the pass game so far (no games over 20 yards), Wright and Smith are back-end options, and Funchess will have a tough time getting open this week. This should lead to this game turning into the Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey ground show as a result — with each guy likely to remain in his typical range of usage, in spite of the slowed-down nature of both teams. Cam has averaged 9.7 carries per game, with two carries inside the five — essentially giving him the usage of someone like Alfred Morris, even before any passes he throws (good for anywhere from four to 10 points of bankable floor).

McCaffrey, meanwhile, has ascending touch counts of 16, 22, and 30, and is clearly the only running back who matters on this offense. In his lower-carry games, CMC saw target counts of nine and 15; and in his lower-target game, he saw 28 carries. C.J. Anderson has proven to be no threat in the red zone (six carries inside the 10 for CMC; one for Anderson), and the Giants are a non-threatening matchup both on the ground (26th in yards allowed per carry) and through the air (5.75 receptions allowed per game to running backs — with only five of those coming from Kamara last week). This is a funnel spot for CMC usage, with the Panthers’ offense low on options behind him.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

All three of Saquon, OBJ, and Shepard stand out to me in tourneys this week — though because each guy will effectively need “volume” (or a broken play) in order to post a big game in this offense, I’ll try to stay away in cash games and “main roster” stuff against a Carolina team that is built around limiting opponent plays. The clearest case in cash games can be made for Shepard, of course, as he is still underpriced for his role across all three sites. Value is thin enough this week that I could see him making the cut for me as a seven to nine target guy.

The Panthers are the Cam and CMC show on offense, and those are the guys I’ll be primarily interested in. I have a fairly strict “no Cam in cash” rule, as he tends to bomb without warning in the best possible spots; but he does stand out as one of the preferred plays on the week, as he should see a bigger role on the ground, and he should be part of at least a couple touchdowns. CMC stands out as a top three back this week, alongside Gurley and Gordon. The Panthers should lean on him heavily once again.

TITANS // BILLS OVERVIEW

The upstart Titans surprisingly opened the week as only 3.0 point favorites on the road at Buffalo, and have been bet up to -3.5 as of this writing (Tuesday night). Expect them to stay above 3.0 throughout the remainder of the week, with obvious room for them to grow from here.

Outside of their shocking blowout of the Vikings in Week 3, the Bills have been pretty clearly one of the two worst teams in football, with over 200 fewer yards than the Panthers and Redskins…who were on bye last week. Buffalo is averaging 12.5 offensive points per game on the season, and the Cardinals are the only team with fewer yards and fewer points. The Cardinals at least have David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Christian Kirk — giving them more reason for forward-looking optimism than the Bills can boast.

Enough Bills-bashing, though. Let’s dive into this game.

TITANS PASS OFFENSE

The Bills’ main strength this year has continued to be their pass defense — fueled by two main elements: 1) a low average depth of target allowed (only four teams are allowing a lower aDOT, and the Bills are holding opponents over 14% below the league average), and 2) good tackling after the catch (Bills are top 10 in lowest YAC allowed per reception). Short-area targets plus good tackling after the catch adds up to a good recipe for solid pass defense. From a PPR (and even half-PPR) perspective, Buffalo isn’t too terrifying, as they allow a high catch rate with all the short throws forced; but volume is important for racking up points against this defense that limits big plays. Buffalo ranks in the top half of the league in fewest pass plays of 20+ yards allowed, and only two teams have allowed fewer pass plays of 40+ yards.

This lines up nicely with what the Titans have been doing on offense, of course, as they had been sharing space with the Colts at the bottom of the league in average intended air yards before getting more aggressive last week in a tight game against the Eagles. In that game, Marcus Mariota showed that he is still not fully healthy (his downfield passes were still a bit short on zip, and his ball placement was hit-or-miss — with some beautiful throws mixed in with some floaters he would probably like to have back). The big takeaway for me, however, is that Mariota is obviously improving — and he is obviously getting a grasp on this Matt LaFleur offense. As a reminder: LaFleur is a Sean McVay disciple and has a bright future ahead of him; there is plenty of upside for this offense as the season moves along.

The only place where Buffalo is really “attackable” is over the short middle — an area of the field that Aaron Rodgers disappointingly failed to exploit last week with speedy Marquez Valdes-Scantling primarily taking over slot duties. This week, the three main weapons in the Tennessee passing attack (Corey Davis, Taywan Taylor, and Tajae Sharpe) should all have opportunities over the middle, as all three have played in the slot at a range of 22% to 26% of the time.

Davis continues to be the clear leader in this pass attack, with target totals of 13, seven, four, and 15, and with a massive 46.5% of the Titans’ air yards (second in the NFL, to only Julio Jones). The Titans are dragging Davis across the field on most of his routes — allowing Mariota’s mobility to give Davis time to work open, an approach that should work well this week against Buffalo’s zone-heavy scheme.

While Davis played on 60 of a possible 71 snaps last week, preseason darling Taylor finished second among wide receivers, with 45 plays. More importantly, he ran 36 pass routes — making him the clear leader among ancillary options (only Jonnu Smith ran more routes — and Smith is only a space-eater at this point, with target counts on the year of three, zero, two, and two). Taywan is a threat to score every time the ball is in his hands, and the Titans are using him both short and deep. His nine targets last week were not an accident, and he rewarded the Titans’ faith with seven catches for 77 yards.

The best news in this passing attack is that Tajae Sharpe and Jonnu Smith have each failed to top three targets in a game this year, while Nick Williams saw zero targets last week while running 23 pass routes. The passes on this team are going to go to Davis and Taylor.

TITANS RUN OFFENSE

The bad news for this passing attack is that the Titans appear very comfortable going completely opponent-specific in their attacks each week — both on offense and defense — and that could lead to them exploiting Buffalo on the ground this week, in a game Tennessee should control. It is worth noting, however, that Buffalo ranks 10th in fewest yards allowed per carry to begin the season, and heading into last week they ranked eighth in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards.

If Buffalo is able to hold tight on the ground, Tennessee has the flexibility to go pass-heavy, with Dion Lewis seeing target counts this year of eight, one, three, and nine — hauling in 18 of these 21 targets. He is disappointingly averaging only 3.3 yards per carry.

Of course, behind Lewis, backfield mate Derrick Henry has averaged only 3.0 yards per carry to begin the year, and he continues to see almost no work in the pass game, with four targets through four games.

“Derrick Henry games” are about the worst thing for this offense from a DFS perspective, as he will turn into a touchdown-dependent back while turning Mariota, Davis, and Taylor into lower-end options. “Dion Lewis games” will lead to a lot more passing, and to strong upside for the guys mentioned above.

Expect the Titans to begin this game with a balanced approach, and to lean toward whatever is working against this decent-across-the-board defense. This makes the entire offense scary to bet on in DFS, but there is definitely some upside here.

BILLS OFFENSE

Tennessee’s defense has been solid this year, ranking 12th in yards allowed per game and sixth in points allowed per game. They have racked up 12 sacks (seventh in the NFL), and they have had the best red zone touchdown defense in the NFL. Tennessee has yet to allow a rushing touchdown, and only four teams have been better at preventing YAC on a per-reception basis.

If there is a way to attack Tennessee right now, it’s on the ground — less because of personnel, and more because this new Titans defense is more pass-focused than it was in the past. The Titans have been one of the most opponent-specific teams in the league to begin the season, and they’ll have a plan in place to take away the low-end weapons Josh Allen is being forced to rely on, and to confuse him on the back end.

If you can find a week-winning score on the Buffalo offense, that’s awesome. I wish you the best of luck on the other spots on your roster.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

As is the case each week right now, one of the better DST options on any given slate will be “whichever defense is facing the Bills.” No team has taken more sacks, and only two teams have thrown more interceptions.

If you feel compelled to use Bills players, Josh Allen has the ability to toss a long touchdown and run another one in — creating slim optimism for a solid game at a low salary. Obviously, I won’t be going there myself.

The targets for Corey Davis are awesome, though the matchup is middling, and there is a chance that passing volume will be held to the lower end for Tennessee this week. He is the best play on FanDuel, where he costs only 10.67% of the salary cap and has strong touchdown upside for the price. On DraftKings (12.8%) and FantasyDraft (12.0%), he appears to be slightly overpriced in this spot. I will note that Davis has the talent and role to be priced over 15% of the salary cap if this offense gets fully on track later in the season — so he’s underpriced in that sense. He makes for an interesting upside play in tourneys who likely won’t hurt you if he “misses,” as the targets will be there.

DraftKings and FantasyDraft gave us an interesting cash game question with Taywan Taylor at only 8.0% and 8.4% of the salary cap, respectively. Taylor saw nine targets on 43 Mariota pass attempts last week, and six or seven targets would be reasonable here in a likely 30 to 35 pass game. Buffalo tackles well, but Taylor with the ball in his hands is dangerous against any defense. This is actually the first game I’m writing up on the Sunday slate, so I am not yet sure what value looks like on this slate, and I have no idea if Taywan will make my Player Grid on Saturday; but he’s definitely a guy I’ll be marking down for now and digging into deeper during the second half of the week.

You could chase one of the Titans’ running backs, as one or the other should post a solid game here. Mariota is also in play for his upside, though the likeliest case is a modest line with under 36 pass attempts and around 250 to 280 yards. Mariota’s legs and his well-schemed offense obviously give him greater potential than most other quarterbacks to exceed that projection, if you want to chase in tourneys.

RAIDERS // CHARGERS OVERVIEW

Typically, I try to write up six or seven games of the NFL Edge on Tuesday, and I write up the remaining nine or so games on Wednesday. This week, I was feeling pretty sick on Monday and Tuesday (actually, I’m still in that space, as I sip tea and type this at 1 A.M. on Thursday), and I managed to knock out only three games on Tuesday (which has set me up with quite an interesting, 22-hour “Wednesday”; I imagine my body will be grateful by the time I allow it to sleep and finally fight off this bug…). After I finished putting together those three games on Tuesday and realized I needed to get some sleep, I spent about an hour unwinding and messing around with rosters for this weekend. And as I did so, one team popped off the page more than any other:

The Raiders.

It’s not that the Raiders are in “the best spot of the weekend,” or that we should expect this team to yield a pile of monster games. Rather, it’s that the Raiders have quietly been one of the better offenses in the NFL to begin the year (ninth in total DVOA, second in yards per game, and 13th in points per game)…and they have a narrow distribution of work…and they are taking on a Chargers defense that ranks bottom 10 in yards allowed and bottom five in points allowed…and they are priced way too low — at quarterback, running back, and wide receiver, on all three sites. The Raiders make some interesting things possible in other spots on your roster this week. And while we won’t be the only ones who will realize this, this certainly appears to be one of the clearer edges on the Week 5 slate — as Oakland gives us a chance to fit in some of the higher-priced guys we want up top, without sacrificing floor or ceiling down low.

Let the fun begin.

RAIDERS PASS OFFENSE

Oakland ranks middle of the pack in passing play percentage and pace of play — though they have shown an ability to go up-tempo when necessary, actually ranking first in the NFL in pace of play when trailing by seven or more points. A best-case scenario for this offense would be for the explosive Chargers to jump out to a lead, and for the Raiders to chase with an up-tempo, pass-leaning game plan. The Raiders rank seventh in yards per pass attempt, and while they haven’t been able to finish drives just yet, the only teams in the NFL with more passing yards this year are the Buccaneers, the Rams, and the Steelers.

The Chargers have fallen off a cliff this year on defense, ranking 28th in adjusted sack rate and 29th in yards allowed per pass attempt. Only five teams have allowed more passing touchdowns than the Chargers so far. Derek Carr plays significantly better when he is able to work with a clean pocket, and that should be the case for most of the game this week.

The biggest issue for the Chargers has been an inability to tackle after the catch, as only two teams have allowed a higher YAC per reception — which interestingly sets up best for Jared Cook, who ranks 14th in the NFL in xYAC/R (expected YAC per reception). His mark of 6.6 is not too much higher than the 5.8 mark Jordy Nelson carries or the 5.5 mark Amari Cooper carries, which is a testament to the scheme Jon Gruden is putting on the field each week, allowing each of these guys room to run after the ball is in their hands. Cook has target counts on the year of 12, four, six, and 13. There is no clear rhyme or reason to when/why these targets will rise or dip, but Cook is essentially the “third wide receiver” in this offense, with 154 pass routes run, compared to 170 for Jordy and 178 for Amari. No one else on this team has run even half as many routes as Cook, and this should be a pass-heavy spot for Oakland.

Amari Cooper should be shadowed by Casey Hayward this week, but Hayward has had a rough start to the season, allowing 11 catches for 186 yards and two touchdowns on 17 targets. Last year, Amari disappointed with a 5-28-0 line the first time these teams met, before posting a 3-115-1 line in the second meeting. Last year’s Chargers defense obviously boasted a much more dangerous pass rush. Amari has seen target counts of 10, five, and 12 across the last three weeks.

Jordy Nelson has risen from four targets each of the first two weeks to eight targets each of the last two weeks — with Jon Gruden changing up the route tree for both Jordy and Amari each week, in order to take advantage of the weaknesses of the defense. Each of these guys is working primarily within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage, and each is seeing equal opportunities in the red zone (three targets inside the 10 for Amari; two for Jordy — both behind Cook and his monstrous seven looks inside the 10, tied with Melvin Gordon, of all people, for the NFL lead). Expect six to eight targets for Jordy again this week, with seven to 10 looks for Amari. Either guy could swing wildly outside that range, but those are “likeliest scenario” bets.

Seth Roberts and Martavis Bryant are essentially splitting snaps, with Roberts seeing a few short-area targets each game, and with Martavis going downfield for target counts to date of four, five, and seven. Martavis has yet to hit, but had he not dropped a wide-open 53-yard touchdown last week, he would have seen his price rise, and he would have been talked up quite a bit this week as an “upside” piece. The upside is there with the work he is seeing — and at his price, the floor is honestly not too terribly scary.

The biggest volume drain on this passing attack is Jalen Richard, who has target counts of 11, zero, seven, and five. Outside of Richard, almost all of the targets will be going to the guys mentioned above, with Cook, Amari, Jordy, and Martavis combining for over 88% of this team’s air yards to date.

RAIDERS RUN OFFENSE

The Chargers rank 18th in yards allowed per carry to begin the year and 22nd in DVOA, while ranking 23rd in adjusted line yards. This is a good spot for the Raiders’ rushing attack, with game flow being the one potential concern, as Marshawn Lynch will see his usage dry up if Oakland falls too far behind.

Lynch has finally taken over the bulk of the backfield work for the Raiders, with ascending touch counts on the year of 13, 20, 22, and 23 — compared to six, eight, nine, and five for Doug Martin. Lynch has hauled in three receptions in back-to-back games, giving him a nice floor boost, and he has scored a touchdown in three of four weeks, with all three coming on carries inside the 10. Expect another 15+ touches for Lynch in this spot, with upside for 20+ if the Raiders can keep this game close. Lynch is appropriately priced on all three sites if he sees around 15 touches, and he is underpriced if he sees 20+ — making him a solid all-around play.

CHARGERS PASS OFFENSE

The Chargers have been unsurprisingly strong through the air this year, ranking 11th in yards per pass attempt and 13th in passing yards per game. Philip Rivers has impressively tossed 11 touchdowns to only two interceptions, while leaning heavily on his running backs — with Melvin Gordon seeing only two fewer targets than Keenan Allen so far (34 vs 36), and with Austin Ekeler chipping in 14 targets of his own.

The clear leader on this offense right now is Gordon, who steps into a glorious spot against a Raiders defense that has allowed four rushing plays of 20+ yards this year (only two teams have allowed more), while giving up a league-leading three rushing plays of 40+ yards. Oakland ranks 31st in yards allowed per carry and 28th in DVOA against the run.

Ekeler continues to share the field with Gordon a few times each game, while playing around 30% of the team’s snaps and typically being schemed the ball when he is on the field. This team seems intent on getting the ball in Ekeler’s hands at least 10 times per game — a mark he has hit or exceeded three times already. He’ll be mixed in as a moderate floor, solid-ceiling salary saver.

When the Chargers turn their attention downfield, they’ll be taking on a Raiders defense that has allowed the fourth-most pass plays of 20+ yards (behind only the Bucs, Chiefs…and Chargers), and that has especially struggled with downfield passing and yards after the catch. As “recency bias” would have it, this is again a better spot for Mike Williams and his aDOT of 17.0 than it is for Keenan Allen and his aDOT of 8.6. While Keenan has the sexy target counts, each guy is seeing just over 26% of the Chargers’ air yards — making Williams the better upside bet. Keenan obviously has a higher floor. As always, he’ll need a couple touchdowns or a spiked-target game to pay off his lofty salary, as he is rarely used downfield. Spiked-target games are in his range of outcomes, making him a tourney consideration.

Tyrell Williams will remain involved as the fourth option in the air (behind Keenan, the running backs, and Mike Williams), with a secure workload now that Travis Benjamin is back on the shelf. Williams should see three to five downfield targets, with upside for something like a 4-80-1 game if everything goes just right.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

I am not sure yet what pieces of the Raiders I will end up with this week on my main roster, but I do know that they will be a core piece for me on the weekend. I have even considered breaking character and spreading my bankroll across 12 to 15 tourney teams that each bet on a different portion of the Raiders while loading up on various high-upside guys in other spots on the roster. From a pure floor perspective, you could genuinely justify rostering all of Carr, Lynch, Cooper, Nelson, and Cook in cash games on DraftKings, with tighter pricing — knowing that this group as a whole has a “20th percentile floor” of more than 3x its salary, with clear upside for 4x. These five players together cost just over $25k, and they have combined to average over 87 points per game on the year on DraftKings — with potential for this likely shootout to spike that production. (Leaving floor out of the equation and focusing instead on upside, it makes more sense to try to isolate which Raiders plays you feel are likeliest to hit for a big game, and to then target other upside pieces from there. I’ll likely “take the win” by going more Raiders-heavy in cash this week, with anywhere from three to five pieces of this team, while building a totally different main roster in tourneys that isolates two Raiders pieces and tries something different from there.)

On the other side, Melvin Gordon stands out as a clear top play on this slate, with Austin Ekeler a strong salary saver behind him. One of these guys will almost certainly pop off for a long run in this game, and each guy has strong floor and ceiling for his price.

Behind these guys, I like Mike Williams again (hmmm…), with longer-shot interest in Tyrell Williams. Keenan Allen does not stand out to me as a top high-priced wide receiver, but he’ll likely go overlooked with guys like Julio Jones and the Vikings receivers in such better spots, creating a game theory case for playing him. Philip Rivers should post another strong game in this spot as well, though I’ll be happy to take the savings on the quarterback on the other side of this game.

CARDINALS // 49ERS OVERVIEW

With 10 teams on the main slate that boast a Vegas-implied total of 25 or more (as of Wednesday evening), it is unlikely that we are going to find much interest (or much to be interested in ourselves) in a game between the Cardinals and 49ers. Through four weeks, no team in the NFL has been worse on offense the Arizona, with under 10.0 points per game, and with the fewest yards per game in the league. The good news for Arizona is that rookie Josh Rosen is going to be taking on a San Francisco defense that will be a less severe test than the Seahawks were last week. Through four weeks, only five teams have allowed more points than the 49ers, and only 12 teams have allowed more yards.

Arizona has been decent on defense, ranking 11th in passing yards allowed per game and ranking 17th in yards allowed per carry. The big issue for the Cardinals has been game flow, as no team has faced more rush attempts than the Cardinals have faced so far — which has led to them allowing the second-most rushing yards and the most rushing touchdowns, in spite of allowing only two rushing plays of 20+ yards, and no rushing plays of more than 21 yards.

Arizona ranks 30th in pace of play, while San Francisco ranks in the middle of the pack. Each team runs a balanced offense, and each team unsurprisingly ranks in the top eight in most opponent plays plays per game — which should lead to a small Opportunity Boost on either side of the ball this week.

CARDINALS PASS OFFENSE

While Rosen aggressively worked the short areas of the field last week — with all but nine of his passes coming within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage — eight of those nine “downfield” passes traveled more than 15 yards, as Rosen essentially bypassed the 10- to 15-yard range. This creates optimism for this offense moving forward, as downfield passing was one of the (many) things this unit was missing with Sam Bradford under center.

This downfield passing will be important against a San Francisco unit that tries to clog up the short and middle areas of the field. As noted last week: San Francisco does not have the personnel to be great at clogging up the middle (and they are still below-average in this area), but the best way to really squeeze upside out of this matchup is to attack downfield, outside the numbers (thanks, Mike Williams…).

The bad news for the Cardinals is that their “outside the numbers, downfield” threat is Chad Williams — who has the 10th-deepest aDOT in the NFL (names in front of him include: Julio Jones, Will Fuller, Marvin Jones, Robby Anderson, John Brown, DeSean Jackson…and Mike Williams) — but who has incredibly hauled in only two of 13 targets so far, for a total of 30 yards. This is the slimmest of upside plays — with a literal floor of zero, but with close-your-eyes-and-hope upside for something like 3-60-1. There is a chance his efficiency will spike now that Rosen is under center.

Larry Fitzgerald continues to hobble around on his ailing hamstring to the tune of five catches for 37 yards over the last two weeks, on nine targets. Expect more missed practice time this week, followed by a snap rate north of 90%. The targets last week are encouraging, and Fitz is going to pop off for some big games later this year; but in a similar matchup to what Keenan Allen underperformed in last week, with his hamstring still an issue, Fitz’s chances of hitting in this spot are low.

The Cardinals have gotten Christian Kirk involved over the last couple weeks, with snap rates of 74% and 68%, leading to a quiet 11 catches on 13 targets, with one carry. Part of the reason this usage has remained so quiet in the DFS community is because it is coming in a low-upside manner, with all four of Kirk’s catches last week coming within five yards of the line of scrimmage; but he did see a target 30 yards downfield last week and another more than 20 yards downfield the week before, and San Francisco is allowing a 10% increase on the league-average YAC-per-reception rate. Kirk should see another five to eight targets in this one, in a good matchup, at under 8.7% of the salary cap on all three sites (with a low-water mark of 7.4% on DraftKings).

This passing attack rounds out with Ricky Seals-Jones, who should see another three to five targets this week, with moderate upside on these looks.

CARDINALS RUN OFFENSE

The Cardinals’ idea of “getting David Johnson more involved” last week was to slam him into the line 22 times, behind an offensive line that ranks 29th in adjusted line yards. Every once in a while in this job, I come across something that literally makes me angry as I type it. That was one of those things.

Last week, the Cardinals were taking on a Seattle defense that had been solid against both the run and the pass — whereas this week, Arizona will face a San Francisco defense that ranks ninth in DVOA against the run and 23rd against the pass, and that has allowed the second-most running back targets and the second-most running back receptions in the NFL. There is really nowhere to go but up from here for DJ, and his 25 touches last week are encouraging insofar as they speak to the Cardinals actively attempting to get the ball into his hands. DJ played 43 out of 50 snaps two weeks ago and 55 out of 60 snaps last week, making him a very clear three-down back. I expect him to become increasingly popular as buy-in levels rise this week (and to possibly even become chalk at all buy-in levels), with his price dropping below 13% of the salary cap, and with the snap rate looking so promising. He still carries legitimate week-winning upside; and while that upside is less likely to hit in this prehistoric offense, his floor has proven to be strong and steady this year.

49ERS PASS OFFENSE

C.J. Beathard uncorked 37 passes last week in a shootout of sorts with the Chargers — completing 23 of these passes for 298 yards, two touchdowns, and two picks. Naturally, this game is far less likely to turn into a shootout. Contrary to preseason expectations: the Cardinals have been a tougher matchup for passing attacks than the Chargers have been.

Not that the Cardinals have been prohibitive. This Steve Wilks zone ranks 27th in yards allowed per pass attempt — but they rank 11th in DVOA, and they have allowed only three passing touchdowns on the year. With this zone defense clogging up the short field and the Cardinals yielding holes on the ground close to the end zone, touchdown upside in this passing attack may be difficult to come by.

The big beneficiary of Beathard’s steady game last week was shower partner George Kittle, who hauled in six catches for 125 yards and a touchdown on only eight targets — highlighted by an 82-yard catch-and-run. If you are like me, and have only played Kittle in Week 2 this year (his only dud on the season), his name probably rakes across your nerves, and it might even feel point-chasey to consider him this week. But Kittle tied with Pierre Garcon for the most pass routes on the team last week, and he is one of only two weapons on this team that can separate from defenders. Arizona has been tough on tight ends to begin the year — allowing the fifth-fewest receptions — but Washington is the only team they have played so far that really uses the tight end, and Jordan Reed went 4-48-1 against them on five targets.

The other guy on this offense who can separate from defenders is Marquise Goodwin, though his separation abilities are more theoretical at the moment, as he doesn’t seem quite right battling through his various leg issues. He has five catches on eight targets across the last two weeks, and he does not seem ready to make an impact.

Pierre Garcon went 4-52-0 last week on seven targets and should see similar work again. His inability to separate will matter less than it would in other weeks, against the Cardinals’ zone-heavy scheme. Trent Taylor continues to soak up low-upside usage in the slot. Kendrick Bourne will see more time on the field if Goodwin has to miss this game; he’ll slot in as a moderate-usage salary saver in that scenario.

49ERS RUN OFFENSE

While the Cardinals’ run defense is not as bad as the “fantasy points allowed” numbers suggest (again: those seven rushing touchdowns), they are also not a matchup to fear. We should view this as a middling spot for Matt Breida and Alfred Morris — one that would neither raise nor lower expectations if we played out this slate a hundred times.

The good news for these guys is that San Francisco’s offensive line under Kyle Shanahan’s zone blocking scheme has been predictably successful, ranking fourth in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards. The 49ers block well at all levels, which has especially opened things up for the downfield explosiveness of Matt Breida, who has been Jamaal Charles-like in his yards per carry this year, racking up 313 yards on only 41 attempts (7.6 YPC). Frustratingly, Breida has touch counts of 12, 14, 13, and 12. He has seen exactly three catches in each of his last three games.

The other side of this timeshare is touchdown-and-yardage dependent Alfred Morris — who now has three catches on five targets all year. With health an issue for each of Breida and Morris last week, the latter saw only four carries, but he had seen 12 to 14 each of the previous three games, and he should be in line for a similar workload again.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

David Johnson stands out as a surprisingly intriguing play in this spot — popping off the page more than anyone else in this game. DJ carries a solid floor for his price, and he is one of the few guys in his price range with legitimate week-winning upside — the sort of floor/ceiling combo we are hunting for each week.

I could see taking the savings on Christian Kirk as well, in order to make it up to some of the higher-priced guys in the possible shootouts. This is more appealing on sites with tight pricing, of course (DK and FDraft), than it is on FanDuel.

George Kittle is a solid play on the other side of the ball, as he should be in line for six to eight targets again, and is the likeliest bet on this offense for a game north of 80 yards. As noted last week: Beathard did not show an ability to produce big stat lines for his pass catchers last year, so this is not a play without risk; but the upside is there.

I could also see a shot on the Cardinals’ defense, as they have a decent pass rush, and their zone could yield a couple turnovers from poor reads by Beathard. As with most of the DST options this week, you’ll need something to break your way in order to capture any true upside.

RAMS // SEAHAWKS OVERVIEW

Hidden amongst “Falcons at Steelers,” “Packers at Lions,” and “Raiders at Chargers” is a Rams team that enters this writeup with the third-highest Vegas-implied total on the main slate, at 28.5. The Rams have been unstoppable to begin the year, ranking first in yards per game and second in points per game, while having more success on a per-drive basis than any team in the league. When these teams met early last year in L.A., the upstart Rams scored only 10 points; but when they met up later in the season in Seattle, the Rams won 42-7, with Todd Gurley famously rushing for 152 yards and three touchdowns, while adding three catches for 28 yards and another touchdown through the air. Seattle has struggled against the run to begin the season, ranking 25th in yards allowed per carry — and they have now lost Mychal Kendricks (suspension) and Earl Thomas (broken leg). Buckle up.

RAMS PASS OFFENSE

No team has had a more effective passing attack than the Rams this year, with the most yards per pass attempt and the second-most passing yards per game. This attack has been legitimately unstoppable, with every play putting immense strain on the defense. In the same way that the physicality of a defense like the Ravens or Jaguars can wear down an offense over the course of a game, the relentless attack mode of this offense can wear down a D. This unit is absolutely elite at all levels of the field, with Gurley and Cooper Kupp underneath, and with Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks downfield.

For what it’s worth, Seattle has been very strong against the pass to begin the year, ranking near the top of the league in aDOT allowed, catch rate allowed, and expected yards allowed per target. So far, however, this young defense has faced Case Keenum, Mitchell Trubisky, Dak Prescott, and Josh Rosen. Let’s say there are tougher quarterback slates than that — and I’ll be willing to take my chances on Sean McVay’s aerial attack this week, with bonus points if the field is looking the other way.

At this point, it’s almost impossible to box these Rams receivers into a specified role. Yes, Cooper Kupp is the “underneath” guy, but he is also seeing targets downfield. Yes, Cooks is the speed threat, but he is also running intermediate and even underneath routes. And yes, Woods leads this team in aDOT and percentage share of team air yards (ranking seventh in the league in the latter category), but he is also seeing targets at all levels of the field. With the way the Rams level out their routes, we are also seeing fairly consistent targets across the board. So far, weekly target counts have looked like this:

Kupp :: 9 // 6 // 6 // 11
Cooks :: 8 // 9 // 8 // 8
Woods :: 9 // 9 // 11 // 5

Kupp ranks behind only Jared Cook and Melvin Gordon with six targets inside the 10 — but Woods has four looks of his own, and Cooks has three. Essentially, it’s Woods // Cooks // Kupp for “total ceiling” and for “likelihood of hitting ceiling,” but all three guys are playable. They all have a high floor in this offense.

RAMS RUN OFFENSE

The one major drawback for the Rams’ passing attack could be crowd noise in Seattle — which could lead to simpler pre-snap changes at the line of scrimmage, and would filter the Rams toward more run plays, as they will have a harder time changing route combinations before the play. There is also the fact that Todd Gurley is just awesome. If he gets rolling against the Seahawks’ bottom-eight run defense, he could carry this offense from start to finish.

Gurley has touch counts on the year of 23, 22, 28, and 21, and Carlos Hyde is the only player with more carries inside the five, while Alvin Kamara is the only player with more carries inside the 10. There isn’t much left to say on Gurley at this point. He’s clearly one of the top three running back plays on the weekend, with a reliable floor and a monster ceiling.

SEAHAWKS PASS OFFENSE

The Seahawks have struggled enormously through the air to begin the year, ranking 29th in passing yards per game as the team dials back pass attempts and tries to shorten games by leaning on the run. Only six teams have run the ball at a higher rate this year — and very few of these rushes are coming from Russell Wilson himself, as he has maxed out at four rushing attempts this year, and at 21 rushing yards.

The Rams took a step back against the pass last week, agains the Vikings’ precision passing attack, with Marcus Peters hobbled and Aqib Talib sidelined. Talib will be out for a couple more months, but Peters should be much healthier after having the mini-bye to heal up. The Rams have a big mismatch on the line, with Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh going up against an O-line that ranks 31st in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate. While the Rams have not racked up big sack numbers to begin the year, they rank first in the NFL in pressure rate, and they should have no problem busting through this line this week.

Although the Rams are more attackable in the secondary than they would be with Talib, Russ will have a difficult time dialing up the deep balls that yield upside for this attack — which is going to make it difficult to bet on any individual pieces in this attack with confidence. With that said, there is a good chance Seattle falls behind in this spot and is forced to turn more heavily to the air than normal. If that’s the case, Doug Baldwin could spike to nine or 10 targets, while Tyler Lockett could see as many as seven or eight looks.

Behind these two, Brandon Marshall and Jaron Brown have done nothing, while Will Dissly is out for the year. Nick Vannett will step into the bulk of the Seahawks’ tight end snaps, though he has yet to top 27 yards this year in spite of a pair of five-target games.

SEAHAWKS RUN OFFENSE

Two weeks ago, the Seahawks gave Chris Carson 34 touches (just enough for him to crack 100 yards…), and after running him into the ground with that workload, Seattle gave 25 touches last week to Mike Davis, as Rashaad Penny chipped in with nine carries of his own. Carson did not practice Wednesday, but the ever-optimistic Carroll said that he expects him to be ready for the weekend. If Carson plays, we should see some sort of three-man rotation as Seattle looks to stay run-heavy for as long as they can. If Carson misses, Davis should again be in line for 20+ touches, with Penny soaking up some looks behind him.

Seattle has been better at run blocking than at pass blocking, but they still rank a below-average 21st in adjusted line yards. The matchup is not terrifying against a Rams team that ranks 24th in yards allowed per carry — though most of these carries have come with the Rams in the lead and paying attention to the pass while comfortably allowing small gains on the ground. No team has faced fewer rush attempts per game than the Rams, and they have the talent to slow down the Seahawks’ ground attack if this game remains close enough for Seattle to stick to the run. The return of Mark Barron this week gives the Rams another piece in the middle to make life difficult on the Seahawks.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

There are a number of wide receiver corps I am drawn to this week — primarily: the Falcons // Steelers // Packers // Lions // Bengals // Raiders // and Vikings. The Rams comfortably join that list, with all three guys carrying strong point-per-dollar floor and excellent ceiling. With prices rising on all these guys, I’m likeliest to go with the highest-upside guys in Woods and Cooks, but all three of these pass catchers are in play this week. Alongside these guys, Jared Goff is a strong option as well, though I’ll likely avoid him in cash games and target a game that has a higher chance of turning into a pure shootout.

Of course, Gurely remains one of the top plays on the slate. The Seahawks do not have the pieces on defense to stop him.

On the other side, I have Baldwin and Lockett set aside as interesting tourney pieces, as Seattle will likely need to lean pass-heavy as this game unfolds, and there is really no one for Russ to throw to besides these two. Russ is also a guy with a moderate floor, but with blowup potential if he suddenly gets on track this week. I like these guys a lot more on DraftKings than on FanDuel, as Russ and Baldwin are each priced more than $1k below where they would have been a year ago in this spot.

If Carson is out, I could also take a dirty-feeling shot on Mike Davis. I don’t like this spot, but the price on Davis is way too low for a featured back — and on DraftKings, where the savings matter so much, he could be difficult to pass up. The great fear would be that Pete Carroll would pull a Pete Carroll on us and shift all the work to someone else without warning.

VIKINGS // EAGLES OVERVIEW

Philadelphia has been solid on defense this year, ranking ninth in points allowed per game and 10th in yards allowed per game. Philly is not a team that opponents like to run the ball on, as they faced the fewest rush attempts per game in the league last year, and only the Bears have faced fewer rush attempts per game so far this year. This leads to a pass-heavy approach against Philly — and while this team is solid on the back end, volume tends to enable receivers to pile up production against them. Minnesota quietly leads the NFL in passing play percentage, and there is little reason to expect them to shift away from this approach in Week 5, against an Eagles defense that filters everything to the air.

The Vikings’ formerly elite defense has fallen apart early in the season — and while we should expect them to get back on track sooner rather than later, this is yet another difficult test for them. After allowing the fewest yards per pass attempt in the NFL last year, Minnesota ranks 30th through four games of this year, while giving up eight touchdowns and picking off only three passes.

Each team can play up-tempo when necessary, and each team is happy leaning on the pass, so play volume should not be a concern here, and there is an underrated chance that this game could turn into a mini shootout.

VIKINGS PASS OFFENSE

The Eagles allowed 23 or more points in nine of their games last season, but they allowed more than 24 points on only three occasions, making three touchdowns a fair expectations for the strong Vikings offense in this spot — with the likeliest scenario being that all of these scores come through the air. This may not quite be enough to turn Kirk Cousins into a tourney winner himself, but with a narrow distribution of targets on this team, there is still plenty to like.

Adam Thielen has target counts of 12, 13, 19, and 12 to begin the year, with an aDOT of 9.1, and with 41% of the Vikings’ air yards (fifth in the NFL). Alongside him, Stefon Diggs has target counts of six, 13, 10, and 15, with an aDOT of 9.9, and with 34.9% of the team’s air yards.

These two are being used similarly — with variable route trees that overlap quite a bit from game to game — with the big difference coming pre-snap, where Thielen lines up in the slot 65% of the time, to 22% for Diggs.

This elevated slot usage allows Thielen to pick up more mismatches than Diggs has on the outside, while also providing him with higher-floor targets. While each of these guys is an elite route-runner with excellent hands, Diggs has caught 61.4% of his targets, compared to 71.4% for Thielen.

Philly is more attackable over the middle — a trend that has carried over from last year — as they try to force short-area targets and tackle well after the catch. Last year, they nailed half of this puzzle (short area targets), while ranking near the bottom of the league in YAC allowed per reception. This year, the YAC numbers have come under control, but teams are being able to attack downfield more than the Eagles would like.

Either way, this matchup sets up better for Thielen than it does for Diggs, but ultimately it sets up well for both of them. Cousins has thrown 48 or more pass attempts in three consecutive games — and while this volume will get dialed back once the Vikings solve their defensive issues, a road matchup against the Eagles (with a healthy Carson Wentz and a healthy Alshon Jeffery) is a spot where we can expect this volume to remain high once more, especially as the Eagles force everything to the air. With over 75% of this team’s air yards going to these two guys, it won’t be unexpected for both guys to hit. Thielen has produced elite numbers three consecutive weeks, while Diggs has paired up with him in two of those three weeks.

Behind these guys, Laquon Treadwell and Kyle Rudolph are soaking up most of the scraps. Treadwell has quietly played 74.3% of the Vikings’ snaps the last two weeks, running a route on almost 80% of the Vikings’ pass plays and seeing target counts on the year of four, six, four, and seven. He is not being schemed the ball, but with the Vikings passing so frequently, he’s running into some targets. Rudolph has been neck-and-neck with Diggs and Thielen for pass routes run, and he has seen six to eight targets in three consecutive games, with a pair of touchdowns on the year. Six to eight targets should be in his range once again this week. Red zone targets on the Vikings go Thielen 5 // Diggs 2 // Rudolph 2.

VIKINGS RUN OFFENSE

Dalvin Cook has admitted that his hamstring is not 100% healthy — though he will continue to gut it out, sharing time with Latavius Murray in the backfield. Last week, Murray played 41 snaps to only 18 for Cook, but the Vikings have had 10 days to get Cook better since that game. We should see a more even split moving forward.

The good news ends there for the Vikings’ backfield, against a Philly team that has faced under 20 rush attempts per game this year. Only one team has allowed a lower yards per carry than the Eagles, and as with last year, the only real justification for trying to run on them is to “keep the defense honest.” With Kirk Cousins primarily looking downfield when it comes time to throw, look for these two backs to combine for somewhere in the range of 18 to 24 total touches this week. Either guy would need a couple breakdowns in the Eagles’ defense and/or a couple touchdowns in order to be worth a spot on rosters.

EAGLES PASS OFFENSE

Sure enough, Carson Wentz looked a lot more like himself last week with the return of Alshon Jeffery — attacking downfield and dropping dimes on the defense. There is still some rust this passing attack needs to knock off, but they are beginning to round into form.

The same cannot be said of the Vikings’ pass defense, which has been exposed through the first four weeks. The Vikings have been below-average in aDOT, catch rate, and yards allowed after the catch — a far cry from their 2017 season, when they allowed the fewest expected yards per target in the league.

The first question, in attacking a spot like this, is “What is wrong with the Vikings’ defense?” And the second question: “Is it fixable?”

In order to limit the Vikings’ pass rush, teams are attacking them relentlessly with play-action — with no team in the league allowing more passing yards so far on play-action passes. This is something the Eagles will be able to do, holding the Vikings’ front off balance for just long enough to give Wentz time to find an open man. The absence of Everson Griffin is also hurting the Vikings’ pass rush, which is obviously not a solvable issue.

The other big dent in the Vikings has been communication on the back end. The Vikings’ blown coverages have been less about “one man getting burned in one-on-one coverage” and more about “one man ending up out of position, and the offense attacking that spot.” Minnesota has faced a heavy dose of “movement” and “misdirection” teams — with the Bills even overhauling their offensive scheme in Week 3 to add as many of these wrinkles as possible. This movement and misdirection further slows down the pass rush, and it has led to these communication and coverage breakdowns on the back end. The Eagles are better equipped than almost any team in football to take this same approach.

With all that said: Mike Zimmer is one of the steadiest and most level-headed coaches in the NFL. This team was 2-2 last year before finishing 13-3, and they were 2-2 in 2015 before finishing 11-5. They have had 10 days since their last game — and with the issues on the back end being primarily “communication” and “execution” related, we should start seeing improvements this week.

Ultimately, I’m seeing this as an average spot for Philly — with plenty they can do to confuse this defense, but with the defense itself likely improved from what we have seen to date.

Alshon will draw shadow coverage from Xavier Rhodes — who has not been his elite self to begin the year, but who still poses a difficult challenge. Rhodes has the size to hang with Alshon, and because the Eagles will look to beat this defense more through “scheme” than through “talent,” we will likely see the ball spread around a bit more than what we saw last week, when nine targets went Alshon’s way against the man-heavy coverage scheme of the Titans.

Nelson Agholor has suddenly morphed into the early-career version of himself, with three drops last week, and with only one game this year above 33 receiving yards. He did see 12 targets last week with the return of Alshon, while playing twice as many snaps in the slot (48) as he played out wide. Without a viable third wide receiver on this team, Agholor should remain locked into seven or more targets.

This passing attack wraps up with Zach Ertz — who keeps on ticking, with at least 10 targets in every game this season. Only one team allowed fewer receiving yards last year to tight ends than Minnesota — but they are already almost halfway to their 2017 “yards allowed” mark this year. Ertz is in a class of his own, and matchup should never be a major concern for him. Bump his floor down a bit for the matchup, but keep his ceiling the same.

EAGLES RUN OFFENSE

The Eagles continue to rotate running back snaps almost evenly, with Jay Ajayi seeing 40 snaps last week and Wendell Smallwood seeing 37. The Vikings have remained solid against the run, ranking 10th in yards allowed per carry. They have allowed a long run of only 16 yards — the second-best mark in the league, behind only the Bears. Because Minnesota’s troubles on defense are related to communication, rather than to scheme or talent, we should expect this run defense to remain an obstacle for opponents. Ajayi touched the ball a respectable 18 times last week, while Smallwood touched the ball eight times. Either guy will need volume and a touchdown in order to make a dent in the weekend.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

I don’t like a ton in this game — but what I like, I like a lot, as Thielen and Diggs are two of my favorite wide receiver plays on the weekend. There are a number of strong Tier 1 candidates this week across all levels of the price range, but I’m guessing both of these guys will find a spot on that list for me this week. I also like Cousins quite a bit, though there are quarterbacks with a clearer shot at four or more touchdowns. Kyle Rudolph is in play for his role and his touchdown upside.

I’ll leave both backfields alone, and I don’t expect to chase the matchup against Xavier Rhodes with Alshon Jeffery either.

Agholor has shown a floor too low for cash games this year, but we shouldn’t forget how high his ceiling can be. He’s a tourney piece to consider this week — especially as he could see elevated action if Rhodes slows down Alshon.

Ertz is always in play. Tight end is a bit ugly this week, and he has one of the highest raw projections on the slate. I don’t imagine I’ll pay to get him, but if salary works out differently than expected, I’ll be happy to find him on my roster.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE // Full “Updates” List

Dalvin Cook appears unlikely to play in this game now. If he plays, he will be limited. This will further push Minnesota toward the air, against an Eagles team that already pushes teams toward the air. Volume should be heavily in favor of Cousins, Thielen, and Diggs.

COWBOYS // TEXANS OVERVIEW

Sunday Night Football presents us with a pair of struggling teams this week, in the lucky-to-be 1-3 Texans and the lucky-to-be 1-3 Cowboys. These teams have two completely different styles of play:

The Cowboys rank 24th in pace of play, compared to fifth for the Texans; the Cowboys lean on Ezekiel Elliott, while the Texans lean on Deshaun Watson; Watson ranks first in the NFL in average intended air yards, at 11.0, while Dak Prescott ranks in the bottom half of the league at 7.8; the Texans play aggressive, man-heavy defense, while the Cowboys have a more vanilla zone-leaning scheme; and the Texans boast DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, and Keke Coutee through the air, while Dallas has guys like Cole Beasley and Geoff Swaim.

COWBOYS PASS OFFENSE

Dak Prescott has reached 30 pass attempts only once this season, and the only time he has topped 170 passing yards was last week, when the Cowboys finally had the bright idea of actually scheming some passes to Ezekiel Elliott, instead of just dumping the ball off to him when everything else was covered.

The Cowboys have produced two wide receiver games this year north of 53 yards — a 7-73-0 line for Beasley in Week 1, and a 2-79-1 line for Tavon Austin when he blew past Janoris Jenkins for a long touchdown. It is likely that all three Texans wide receivers, and both quarterbacks, and Ezekiel Elliott outscore every Cowboys wide receiver on the Showdown slate. It is also probable that at least one kicker and at least one defense outscores these guys.

If you feel compelled to target some floor here, Beasley is your guy, with five or more targets in three of four games this year. “Upside” is a total dart throw among these pass catchers.

I will say that one of my regrets from last week was that I didn’t trust the research on Geoff Swaim, after highlighting in this space all the routes he had been running. He has earned the clear lead tight end job without anyone noticing, and last week he played all but five snaps, while tying with Allen Hurns for the most pass routes run on the team. He’s simply a catch-and-fall specialist, which thins out upside — and salary would have to be really tight on the Showdown slate before I would go here — but he’s a name to keep in mind for future weeks as a five-to-seven target guy who is still priced cheap, and can open up some salary flexibility in other spots on a roster.

COWBOYS RUN OFFENSE

Houston has been one of the toughest run defenses in the NFL this year, ranking fourth in yards allowed per carry and second in DVOA. This is worth noting — but it is also worth noting that volume matters more for Zeke than matchup, as he has the ability to pop off in any spot when the work is there.

Through four games, Zeke has touch counts of 18, 22, 19, and 29 — which perfectly paints what his range is on this slow-it-down offense that has a tough time sustaining drives: when everything goes according to plan, he’ll push for 30 touches; and when game flow or play volume turns against Zeke, he’ll push for 20 touches. Either way, he sees enough guaranteed work to be considered a high-floor piece every week.

The biggest story last week, of course, was Zeke’s schemed usage in the pass game. After racking up only 37 receiving yards through the first three games of the season — seeing 18 targets, but with almost all of these coming on desperation dump-offs — the Cowboys gave their star running back blockers in space and even sent him up the sideline deep in the game to create actual upside opportunities. It is not a stretch to call this the least creative offense in the NFL, but this type of usage is going to put Zeke in position for more blowup games than he otherwise would have.

TEXANS PASS OFFENSE

Over the last couple weeks — both in this space, and (in Week 4) on the Square Table — I have brought up the surprising lack of creativity in this Texans pass attack, which could be best described as “Have Fuller and Hopkins run their route, and then throw it to one of them.” Nothing was being done to confuse a defense or to scheme these guys open, and this was leading to more stalled drives than a team with Watson, Fuller, and Hopkins should have.

But last week, the Texans were finally able to add speedy rookie Coutee to the field — and with his arrival, this offense became a lot more exciting.

In Week 4, Houston relentlessly used Coutee in pre-snap motion, which is going to set up their offense for all sorts of attack variations moving forward — from jet sweeps to options to reverses — with this multiple-direction movement also functioning to freeze the defense for an extra moment each play, giving Hopkins and Fuller more opportunities to burn their coverage downfield.

With Hopkins and Fuller drawing attention deep, Coutee is also being given plenty of space in the short areas of the field. I have seen a number of mentions this week about Fuller’s health being a determining factor in whether or not Coutee will see targets — but Coutee is being used more as a Lamar Miller replacement than as a Will Fuller competitor. Last week, Coutee had 15 targets and two carries. Six of his 15 targets came behind the line of scrimmage. Another six targets came within seven yards of the line of scrimmage. Meanwhile, Miller, Alfred Blue, and Ryan Griffin — who had combined to see 6.7 targets per game through the first three weeks — saw only four combined targets last week, with Watson throwing the ball a season-high 42 times. In the same way that Bill O’Brien is willing to over-feed his two best players in Hopkins and Fuller, he’ll be willing to over-feed Coutee while sacrificing touches and targets for lower-upside guys.

This is a better spot for Coutee than it is for Hopkins and Fuller, as Dallas has allowed the seventh-lowest aDOT in the league, while only two teams have allowed fewer pass plays of 20+ yards. The good news for Hopkins is that the targets are going to be there regardless, with double-digit looks in every game to begin the year. With an aDOT of 14.4, he’ll retain his monster upside if he is able to connect for seven or eight of his looks — but the price-considered floor is lower in this spot than it would be in others. Obviously: in a raw-points sense, he still remains one of the top plays on the slate, with the same floor as Coutee and Zeke, and with more upside than the former.

Fuller is seeing an aDOT of 15.7, and is dealing with a hamstring issue (what else is new?). Right now, it appears Fuller will play this weekend, though there is a chance he could have his snaps scaled back. If he is healthy, he should step right back into nine to 11 targets — weighted toward downfield looks. Give him a slightly lower floor than Hopkins and Coutee, but put him in the middle of the three for ceiling.

TEXANS RUN OFFENSE

Lamar Miller was unable to finish the Texans’ Week 4 game with a chest injury, and if he plays, he will be at risk of a lightened workload. Dallas has ranked top five in the NFL to begin the year in yards allowed per carry.

Alfred Blue closed out the game for the Texans last week, averaging 2.4 yards per carry on 13 looks, and bringing in zero of his three targets. If Miller misses, expect the Coutee wrinkles to become even more firmly locked into this offense as the Texans look to minimize their backfield and hunt for explosive plays. The starting running back on the Texans will need to score a touchdown in order to make a dent on the Showdown.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

On the full-weekend slate (or the full-Sunday slate on FantasyDraft), Coutee is the only guy who would stand out to me in this spot — as a high-floor, solid-ceiling play. I love his role in this offense and expect him to remain heavily involved moving forward — as he is a much better means of moving the ball in the short areas of the field than the Texans’ backfield or tight ends.

For pure upside, Zeke, Hopkins, Fuller, and Watson all rank near the top of the weekend — but floor on all these guys is lower in this spot than it would be in others, making them large-field-tourney-only plays for me on bigger slates. On the Showdown, they obviously stand out above the rest.

The Cowboys’ passing attack is an obvious, weekly “stay-away” unit, but if you have to go here on the Showdown, you can close your eyes and take floor with Beasley or Swaim, or you can close your eyes and take ceiling with Allen Hurns, Michael Gallup, or Tavon Austin. We may get one or two tourney-usable games from this group this season.

Each defense is in play on the Showdown slate. Same goes for the kickers.

REDSKINS // SAINTS OVERVIEW

A few facts:

Last year, with Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara both in the fold, the Saints ranked 20th in passing play percentage. Mark Ingram had four to six receptions in 10 of 16 games, and he had double-digit carries in each of the last 14 games of the year. A reasonable weekly expectation for Ingram last season was 14 carries and four or five catches, with plenty of work near the goal line. Only four running backs had more carries inside the five than Ingram’s 13. Ingram has averaged 5.0 yards per carry across the last two seasons.

Because the Saints leaned on the run last year, Kamara was still able to dominate the NFL as well, with at least five catches in all but three games last year, and with five to seven catches most weeks to go with a steady range of eight to 12 carries. With both of these guys healthy, Drew Brees’ pass attempts went down, and these two carried the load. While Kamara has a 15-catch game this year, he has catch counts of nine, six, and five in his other games — not too far off his 2017 range.

The Redskins rank third in DVOA against the pass and 31st in DVOA against the run.

More thoughts on this spot in a bit…

REDSKINS PASS OFFENSE

Through the first three weeks of the Redskins’ season, Jay Gruden and Alex Smith have embraced “game manager life,” with the lowest passing play percentage in the NFL, and with the 27th-ranked pace of play (30th in situation neutral pace). On top of all this, Smith has an average depth of target of only 6.6, as he is hammering the underneath areas of the field and leaving the downfield attack alone.

In theory, Washington will be forced away from this approach in Week 5 against the Saints’ high-powered attack — but given the way Washington’s defense filters opponents toward the ground, the scoring may still end up being more about “long, methodical drives” than about “quick strikes.” Drew Brees has quietly ranked near the bottom of the league in aDOT as well (7.0), leaning on Alvin Kamara and using Michael Thomas in a possession receiver role. New Orleans ranks fourth in drive success rate, while Washington ranks eighth, and each team also ranks top eight in time of possession per drive (with Washington ranking first in the league). Points will be scored in this game — but expect both sides to score these points primarily by marching methodically up and down the field.

The good news for this passing attack is that as much as Washington may want to lean run-heavy, New Orleans ranks first in the NFL in both DVOA against the run and yards allowed per carry. This should lead to elevated volume across the board.

In an “elevated volume” spot in Week 2 against the Colts, Chris Thompson saw the biggest spike in usage, with 14 targets — and against a Saints team allowing only 3.2 yards per carry on the year, it seems likely that usage tilts his way as this game moves along.

Jordan Reed saw the next biggest bump, with eight targets that week, and he looks like a healthy force at the moment, with yardage totals of 48, 55, and 65.

Alex Smith pushed six passes to Paul Richardson in that game and seven passes to Josh Doctson. Neither player is a great route runner, and their downfield skill sets are wasted in this offense; but on the Showdown slate, each has a projection of around six to eight targets, with “ball in their hands” upside against a New Orleans team that ranks dead last so far in expected yards per target.

Jamison Crowder has disappointingly see target totals of four, four, and four to begin the year, and he has yet to top 39 yards. He’ll need a total breakdown in coverage or a multi-touchdown game in order to stand out.

Washington’s winning formula in Weeks 1 and 3 was to lean on Adrian Peterson, feeding him 26 and 19 carries in those weeks. Peterson is tied with Todd Gurley and Kareem Hunt for the second-most carries in the NFL inside the five-yard-line, and he has a “revenge game” narrative behind him, after the Saints had no use for him last year. Obviously, the matchup is a challenge, and Peterson’s limited role in the pass game puts him at high risk of falling out of the game plan by the second half of this affair.

SAINTS PASS OFFENSE

Washington’s pass defense has faced the lowest aDOT in the NFL to begin the year, and with a below-average catch rate allowed and strong tackling after the catch, they are allowing the second-fewest yards per pass attempt early on — sandwiched between the Ravens and the Jags. We could point to early opponents as part of the reason for this (Sam Bradford and Andrew Luck in Weeks 1 and 2, before facing Aaron Rodgers in Week 3), but we should also keep in mind that Brees and Michael Thomas have been more about “volume” and “catch rate” than about explosive plays. Last year, only two teams allowed a lower catch rate than the Redskins.

Given how immensely talented Drew Brees and Michael Thomas are, all of this would be nothing more than footnotes if we were talking about season-long, where you are concerned only with raw points; but when working under a salary cap in DFS, there are production concerns for Thomas in particular in such a tough matchup, at such an elevated price. The return of Ingram (as well as the matchup) should tilt the Saints more run-heavy than they have been so far — but Sean Payton makes it a point of emphasis to keep Thomas involved, and he averaged 9.3 targets per game last season (compared to 11.0 to begin this year), with only two games all season under eight targets. He is less likely to spike for 15+ targets in this spot, and his end zone role may take a slight hit; but he’s still going to be a steady “eight to 12 target” guy every week this year.

One of the areas where Washington sometimes struggled last season was on downfield passing — an issue that has shown up again this year. When their pass rush fails to get pressure on the quarterback, holes can open on the back end of their zone, where the Saints will look to attack this week with Ted Ginn. People will hesitate to play him on the Showdown slate, and he has a literal floor of zero, but he also has big upside with a moderate shot at hitting for a long pass play or two in this spot.

This passing attack has spread around usage behind Thomas, Kamara, and Ginn, with Cameron Meredith seeing four targets last week, Tre’Quan Smith seeing two targets last week, and Austin Carr seeing two targets on a pair of occasions. Ben Watson is the de facto “number four option,” with target counts on the year of four, five, six, and three. Obviously, any of these guys would need a busted coverage or a touchdown to become a standout play. Red zone looks flow to Thomas, Kamara, and Ingram before flowing to these guys.

SAINTS RUN OFFENSE

I do not expect Ingram to continue seeing 18 weekly touches this year to 12.5 for Kamara, but somehow the narrative took hold this offseason that Ingram would be lightly used upon his return — which makes no sense to me. Even with Ingram out of action, we have seen the Saints try to limit Kamara’s touches (two games under 20 touches), and New Orleans has been less capable of picking up tough yards. It also seems likely that the Saints want to protect Kamara’s body near the goal line when they can — giving soon-to-be free agent Mark Ingram the dirty carries inside the five, especially as he proved effective on these looks a year ago. This split should be dictated by game flow, with Kamara seeing the larger share in pass-heavy scripts, and with Ingram still pushing for 16+ touches in run-heavy scripts. This game sets up as a run-heavy spot.

Of course, you can look elsewhere this week for people who will give you all the reasons Ingram will be an afterthought moving forward — and perhaps those voices will be right, and I’ll be wrong. But in aiming to process information without judgement, this makes the most sense as the Saints’ likeliest approach moving forward.

This week, I’m looking for Ingram to carry the ball at least 13 times, with three to five catches mixed in — and with a couple scoring opportunities. I’m looking for Kamara to haul in six to eight catches, with another eight to 10 carries mixed in. Each guy will have an opportunity in this spot to hit for a big game. Ingram is the preferred point-per-dollar play.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

This appears to be a poor Showdown slate for single-entry builds, while standing out as a strong week in which to spread your Showdown bankroll across at least eight to 10 lineups that mix and match different approaches.

On the Washington side, Chris Thompson has the highest floor/ceiling combo, while you could bet on Adrian Peterson in tourneys as a guy who could hit if game flow turns unexpectedly in his favor. Alex Smith isn’t too far behind Drew Brees in projections, and is probably around 35/65 to outscore him in this spot, making him an interesting tourney play on the one-game slate as well.

Jordan Reed is the Washington pass catcher likeliest to hit, but Doctson and Richardson have long-shot appeal, while even Crowder has a place in the conversation.

On the other side, Ingram is my favorite point-per-dollar play with price tags elevated so much on Kamara and Thomas — though Kamara and Thomas (in that order) are the preferred plays from a raw-points perspective, with the highest individual projections on the slate. Ted Ginn is a boom/bust play with boom potential in this spot. The rest of the Saints’ pass catchers are fighting for scraps.

Neither defense stands out on the Showdown slate.

Naturally, each kicker should be useful.