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00:00 :: Ravens // WFT
08:20 :: Chargers // Bucs
16:43 :: Hawks // Dolphins
29:10 :: Vikings // Texans
39:52 :: Saints // Lions
50:28 :: Browns // Cowboys
62:23 :: Jags // Bengals 0:00
69:35 :: Colts // Bears
75:45 :: Cards // Panthers
84:28 :: Giants // Rams
91:42 :: Bills // Raiders
100:48 :: Pats // Chiefs
XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
After a Week 3 full of amazing island Showdown games, Week 4 starts off with the Broncos visiting the Jets. The game total here is just 40.0 points with the visiting Broncos favored by a point. The Broncos are starting a new QB who may or may not get a full game here if he struggles early. On the Jets’ side, I don’t think Sam Darnold is going to get benched as they just have too much invested in him (and Adam Gase is too stubborn), but Gase’s job security has to be . . .
Across his last 12 regular season games, Lamar Jackson has topped 25 pass attempts only twice: last week (28 pass attempts) in a big loss to the Chiefs, and last Week 16 in a 31-15 drubbing of the Browns in which Baltimore seemed to want to get Lamar a bit of extra work through the air (31 attempts). And why wouldn’t the Ravens keep this up? Through three games, Lamar has run outside the tackles 21 times (per Sharp Football Stats), and eight of these runs have gone for 10+ yards(!). There really is no comp for Lamar Jackson, but if you want to dig deep, we should note that the new-look Washington defense has allowed only 28 yards on 14 carries outside the tackles so far this year (after allowing 5.76 yards per carry in this area last season) — but after the Chiefs were the only team that forced the Ravens to throw more than 25 times (with even that game last week getting up to only 28 pass attempts), we should expect yet another low-volume game through the air for Baltimore, with a high-volume rushing attack that hits the defense up the middle with a running back rotation and hits the defense to the edges with Lamar.
In those 10 games in which Lamar threw the ball 25 or fewer times, the Ravens’ margin of victory was 14 // 17 // 36 // 34 // 39 // 3 // 7 // 21 // 32 // 17. This week, Baltimore is taking on Dwayne Haskins, who has taken 10 sacks already this year while tossing four touchdowns and three interceptions. This offense has yet to top 316 yards of total offense this year in spite of playing a relatively soft defensive schedule so far (Philly // Arizona // Cleveland), and now they’ll take on a Baltimore team with the second highest blitz rate in the league and one of the top two or three secondaries in the NFL.
Offensive coordinator Scott Turner and head coach Ron Rivera seem more focused on developing Haskins than in making things look pretty (Jay Gruden, last year, was content to hide Haskins — even deeper into losses — in the seeming hope of making the final score look “less bad” so he could hold onto his job), with Washington passing at the fifth highest rate in the league on early downs in the first 28 minutes of games, while ranking middle of the pack in pass play rate overall. Look for Washington to proactively try to “play offense” and score points in this spot (as opposed to just sitting on the ball and hoping they can win a low-scoring game in which they capitalize off Baltimore mistakes). This isn’t necessarily the best path for making this game look pretty for Washington…but that doesn’t seem to be the goal for Rivera and co. (good on them), and we should keep this in the back of our minds.
Haskins has topped 224 passing yards once in his career — a 261-yard game last year against Philly’s attackable 2019 secondary. He has never topped two touchdown passes in a game, he has finished below three sacks taken in only two of 10 starts (and he has taken four or more sacks in half his starts), and so far in his career, he has 11 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions.
We’re likely to see Baltimore pull away in this game through a combination of big plays on the ground, big plays through the air, and Haskins mistakes when Washington has the ball. If the NFL changed their rules so that a win only counted as a win if the team won by 14 or more points, Baltimore would still be 9-3 in their last 12 regular season games (while if we changed the rules for Washington the other way — so that any loss of less than 14 points actually counted as a win — they would still be only 7-5; in other words, they’ve lost five of their last 12 regular season games by 14+ points). The likeliest game flow in this spot has Baltimore pulling away, Washington continuing to mix in the run (but ultimately allowing Haskins to still handle this game), and Baltimore eventually dominating the time of possession as they cruise to an easy win.
Game Overview ::
The "game overview" for this one randomly became a writeup, instead of bullet points. Here you go!
These are two teams with obvious playoff aspirations, and with really good defenses. Through three weeks, Tampa ranks second in overall defensive DVOA, while the Chargers ranks 11th. Only three teams have allowed fewer points per game than the Chargers, and only six teams have allowed fewer points per game than Tampa. Each team also ranks top eight in fewest yards allowed per pass attempt, and each team has been strong in the red zone — with no team allowing a lower . . .
Game Overview ::
How will Seattle try to win? Well, that's the big question here, isn't it?Miami should try to win by maximizing scoring output; and their best way to do that is through the airIt won't be surprising if this is another high-scoring "Seattle-vs-opponent" gameThere is PLENTY to think about here in DFS (with one of our deepest-dive/most-nuanced "Interpretation" segments of the season)
How Seattle Will Try To Win ::
How will Seattle try to win?
Well…that’s the question, isn’t it? And frankly, it’s probably in our . . .
Game Overview ::
All signs point to Minnesota trying to win with their standard approach for as long as this game remains closeGiven the brutal schedule Houston has had to start the year, it's not quite as easy to pin down their offensive philosophy post-Hopkins, but most signs point to this being a spot in which the Texans will lean on their star QBEach team should be able to move the ball; and if these teams do well enough in the red zone, points should pile upWith points likely to pile up, and a concentrated distribution of touches available . . .
Game Overview ::
New Orleans will continue with their short-area attack in this spot, against a vulnerable Lions defenseThe Lions are wanting to lean on the run and build this into a downfield-attacking pass game, though they're likely to run into roadblocks on the ground...and they may or may not run into roadblocks through the airWhen it's all said and done, points are likely to pile up in this game (though a true shootout is unlikely to be in the cards)There are some obvious ways to attack this game in DFS, and there are a . . .
Game Overview ::
These two teams bring opposite philosophies to the table :: Cleveland ranks 25th in pace and 31st in run play rate || Dallas ranks first in pace and fourth in pass play rateThere are a number of factors that will play into the way this game shapes up (with "moderately high-scoring" to "high-scoring" the likeliest range (but with "low-ish scoring" and "ultra-high-scoring" also in play))There are a number of plays to consider in this game; and there are some clear ways I'll be assessing the hierarchy of these plays myself
How Cleveland Will . . .
Game Overview ::
The Bengals want to lean on the pass, and this matchup sets up well for them to do soThe Jaguars want to lean on the run, and this matchup sets up well for them to do so...as long as the game environment cooperatesPlayer performance in this spot is likely to be tied deeply into game environment, making this a tourney-only spot, but a tourney-only spot with some interesting angles
How Cincinnati Will Try To Win ::
This is, low-key, one of the more enticing games on the weekend, with Joe Burrow and Gardner Minshew squaring . . .
Game Overview ::
The Colts have been very content to lean on the run, and this matchup should tilt them in that directionThe Bears have also been very content to lean on the run, and the suddenly-stout Indy defense has been less stout on the ground than through the airThere are some ways in which this game could turn exciting......but most paths for this game will make it difficult for this spot to compete with what else is available on the slate
How Indianapolis Will Try To Win ::
I got a late start on the NFL Edge this week . . .
Game Overview ::
Arizona wants to play fast and attack the short areas of the field (where Carolina invites opponents to attack)Carolina will focus on four core pieces as they attempt to keep paceThis is a solid spot for Arizona; and while Carolina has struggled to keep drives alive and to convert red zone opportunities, they can turn this into a really interesting game if that changes in this spotHooray for narrow distributions of touches; there are a few pieces to look toward in this game
How Arizona Will Try To Win ::
Arizona wants to play fast (sixth in pace . . .
Game Overview ::
Joe Judge would like you to call him if you know how the Giants can win this gameThe Rams have been the run-heaviest team in football thus far; and while the matchup actually points toward the air, the game environment is nevertheless likely to still keep this team focused on the runThe Rams should control this game: taking an early lead, and playing from in front from thereThere isn't a ton of obvious DFS goodness in the likeliest scenarios for this game, but there are some unique (lower-likelihood) angles to consider in this spot
How . . .
Game Overview ::
Buffalo has shifted into more of a pass-leaning team; but they still want to be adaptable in the way they attack a defense, and there are plenty of ways to attack Las VegasThe Raiders want to win by running the ball and throwing short (particularly over the middle); and if they're able to keep this game close, that's the way to keep pace with the BillsBuffalo is likely to control this game, but most scenarios in this spot have the score remaining relatively closeThe individual pieces in this game don't jump off the page . . .
XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
Sunday night football has the Eagles visiting the 49ers. Vegas has this game at 46.0 points with San Francisco favored by a touchdown, which feels fairly right to me; the 49ers defense is banged up, but the Eagles offense is even more so, and we don’t even know who the starting receivers will be for Philly. There’s a lot of injury news to sort through, so as I write this on Friday, we’re going to have to rely on some guesswork and if/then statements.
On the San Francisco side, the running . . .
XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
With Cam testing positive for Covid, this game was moved off of Sunday and we get another Monday showdown (but seriously, I’m not actually happy about this; best wishes to Cam on a swift recovery!). I hadn’t really dug into this game on the same level of detail as I usually do, so I’m going to lean on JM’s Edge here and just do a quick writeup. With Cam out, the Chiefs are currently 10 point favorites.
The Patriots have an entire gaggle of running backs now. Damien Harris is off IR . . .
XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
UPDATE: Davante is now in fact out. That’s a bit of a surprise. Aaron Jones and MVS’s projections go way up, obviously, but the real trick is going to be figuring out if the Packers just focus on those guys (and then Jamaal Williams, Tonyan, and to a lesser extent Tyler Erin), i.e., the guys they know; or if someone comes out of left field and gets a bunch of usage. Right now Shepherd and MVS are the only Packers’ wide receivers who are even in the player pool on Draftkings, though Fanduel . . .
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