Kickoff Sunday, Oct 4th 1:00pm Eastern

Ravens (
32.25) at

Commanders (
18.75)

Over/Under 51.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Ravens Run D
6th DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Commanders Run O
21st DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
30th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
Commanders Pass O
21st DVOA/21st Yards per pass
Commanders Run D
10th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
11th DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Commanders Pass D
28th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
16th DVOA/13th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

  • Baltimore should be expected to win this game on the ground (as always), with some downfield passing mixed in
  • Washington is allowing Dwayne Haskins to try to win games (even if he’s not yet ready to do so)
  • All signs point to this being a game Baltimore should control (barring crazy scenarios)
  • There are a few pieces on Washington that can be played around with in DFS, and there are multiple viable pieces on the Baltimore side

How Baltimore Will Try To Win ::

Across his last 12 regular season games, Lamar Jackson has topped 25 pass attempts only twice: last week (28 pass attempts) in a big loss to the Chiefs, and last Week 16 in a 31-15 drubbing of the Browns in which Baltimore seemed to want to get Lamar a bit of extra work through the air (31 attempts). And why wouldn’t the Ravens keep this up? Through three games, Lamar has run outside the tackles 21 times (per Sharp Football Stats), and eight of these runs have gone for 10+ yards(!). There really is no comp for Lamar Jackson, but if you want to dig deep, we should note that the new-look Washington defense has allowed only 28 yards on 14 carries outside the tackles so far this year (after allowing 5.76 yards per carry in this area last season) — but after the Chiefs were the only team that forced the Ravens to throw more than 25 times (with even that game last week getting up to only 28 pass attempts), we should expect yet another low-volume game through the air for Baltimore, with a high-volume rushing attack that hits the defense up the middle with a running back rotation and hits the defense to the edges with Lamar.

How Washington Will Try To Win ::

In those 10 games in which Lamar threw the ball 25 or fewer times, the Ravens’ margin of victory was 14 // 17 // 36 // 34 // 39 // 3 // 7 // 21 // 32 // 17.  This week, Baltimore is taking on Dwayne Haskins, who has taken 10 sacks already this year while tossing four touchdowns and three interceptions. This offense has yet to top 316 yards of total offense this year in spite of playing a relatively soft defensive schedule so far (Philly // Arizona // Cleveland), and now they’ll take on a Baltimore team with the second highest blitz rate in the league and one of the top two or three secondaries in the NFL.

Offensive coordinator Scott Turner and head coach Ron Rivera seem more focused on developing Haskins than in making things look pretty (Jay Gruden, last year, was content to hide Haskins — even deeper into losses — in the seeming hope of making the final score look “less bad” so he could hold onto his job), with Washington passing at the fifth highest rate in the league on early downs in the first 28 minutes of games, while ranking middle of the pack in pass play rate overall. Look for Washington to proactively try to “play offense” and score points in this spot (as opposed to just sitting on the ball and hoping they can win a low-scoring game in which they capitalize off Baltimore mistakes). This isn’t necessarily the best path for making this game look pretty for Washington…but that doesn’t seem to be the goal for Rivera and co. (good on them), and we should keep this in the back of our minds.

Likeliest Game Flow ::

Haskins has topped 224 passing yards once in his career — a 261-yard game last year against Philly’s attackable 2019 secondary. He has never topped two touchdown passes in a game, he has finished below three sacks taken in only two of 10 starts (and he has taken four or more sacks in half his starts), and so far in his career, he has 11 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions.

We’re likely to see Baltimore pull away in this game through a combination of big plays on the ground, big plays through the air, and Haskins mistakes when Washington has the ball. If the NFL changed their rules so that a win only counted as a win if the team won by 14 or more points, Baltimore would still be 9-3 in their last 12 regular season games (while if we changed the rules for Washington the other way — so that any loss of less than 14 points actually counted as a win — they would still be only 7-5; in other words, they’ve lost five of their last 12 regular season games by 14+ points). The likeliest game flow in this spot has Baltimore pulling away, Washington continuing to mix in the run (but ultimately allowing Haskins to still handle this game), and Baltimore eventually dominating the time of possession as they cruise to an easy win.

Tributaries ::

DFS+ Interpretation ::

  • Behind one of the worst pass blocking units in the league, Haskins has taken 10 sacks and turned the ball over 5 times: now faces the heaviest blitz team in football
  • BAL’s non-Mahomes 12 regular season opponents following the Peters trade have averaged just 13.8 pts/g
  • After allowing a league-low reception total to RBs in 2019, BAL held Hunt & DJ to 6 rec for 25 yds before allowing 5 rec for 70 yds to CEH
  • CLE RBs found rushing room in Week 1 with 132 yds on 23 att, but DJ & CEH were held to just 98 yds on 31 att in Weeks 2-3
  • Gibson is averaging 10.3 att for 46.7 yds and 2 rec (2.3) for 5.3 yds and has played 26%, 65%, and 40% snaps
  • Against three weaker pass defenses than BAL, McLaurin is averaging 5.3 rec (8.3) for 89.7 yds, 0.3 TD
  • BAL has only allowed three games of 20+ DK pts to WRs since the Peters trade (Sanu, Crowder, Hill)
  • Logan Thomas ranks just 10th in rec & 20th in yds among TEs, but he ranks 4th in routes, 2nd in targets, & 3rd in endzone targets
  • TEs vs BAL (2020): Njoku (3 rec 50 yds, TD), Akins (7 rec 55 yds), Fells (2 rec 23 yds, TD), Kelce (6 rec 87 yds)
  • Since the start of 2018, Lamar Jackson has scored between 26-37 DK pts in 13/18 games, with two below coming in the last two games
  • WAS QB DK pts allowed: Wentz (16.0), Murray (33.1), Mayfield (14.3)
  • Murray hit WAS for 67 yds, 2 TD on the ground
  • Lamar is averaging 77.8 rush yds as a starter (25 g), with just two games under 40 rush yds (6, 39)
  • WAS ranks 18th in Rush Def DVOA, with CLE RBs having just totaled 35 att for 154 yds, 2 TD (+ Hunt rec TD)
  • BAL’s RB distribution being distributed across 3 guys has led to the highest score posted so far from the group being just 14.2 from Dobbins (thanks to 2 TDs)
  • Marquise Brown has received 6 targets in all 3 games, leading the team with 18
  • No WRs have popped off so far vs WAS, but 6 WRs have cleared 50+ yds
  • Mark Andrews has disappointed since Week 1’s explosion with just 4 rec for 51 yds since, but some bad drops, including a sure TD, and his stats certainly look better
  • He’s still running a far higher percentage of routes than the previous seasons
  • WAS has allowed 3 TE TDs, and Goedert hit them for 8 rec 101 yds, TD